US-Iran Stalemate Deepens as Nuclear Talks Remain Stuck Amid Rising Regional Tensions

[0:00] Well, joining us here in Doha is Mohamed El-Masri, professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate [0:05] Studies. Mohamed, so we currently have this stalemate between the U.S. and Iran. Now Trump [0:10] is saying he's not happy with this latest offer from the Iranians. Why can't they seem to break [0:16] this impasse? And what are the options now for both sides to move this situation forward? [0:20] Well, if we look back at the Iranian demands and the American demands, and you just juxtapose them, [0:27] you can see that the two sides are quite far apart. And there's no evidence really that they've been [0:33] able to bridge the gap. There are a number of very significant disagreements. So in some ways, [0:39] it's not surprising that we're in this kind of holding pattern. I think part of the problem here [0:44] is that the U.S. administration seems to believe that the Iranians are kind of on their last legs, [0:51] that they're almost ready to surrender, that they are perhaps on the verge of an oil storage [0:57] crisis. Trump keeps talking about how everything is just going to explode within a matter of days. [1:03] My sense is that that's not accurate, that Iran could actually hold out for some time, [1:08] and that they have, they believe at least, that they have time on their side. But if the U.S. [1:13] believes that Iran is on its last legs, that perhaps can explain some of the U.S. positioning [1:20] and posturing here. [1:21] And it's interesting, isn't it? Because as Alan was saying in his report, there was this talk of [1:25] this Iranian proposal for the U.S. to end its blockade on Iran, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, [1:31] and the ceasefire becoming permanent. And then, and only then, talks on Iran's nuclear deal would [1:36] follow. Could we still see that plan play out, do you think? [1:40] Well, it's still an open question. But, you know, I think it's, again, it's interesting that the U.S. [1:46] thinks that it is in a position of leverage here, that it can sort of dictate the terms. The reason [1:53] why the Iranians are saying, okay, let's make this sort of patchwork agreement, and then we'll hold [2:00] off on the nuclear file, is because I think they recognize that the nuclear negotiation is going [2:06] to be very time-consuming and very complicated. Remember, the Iranians have a lot of experience in [2:11] this arena, unlike the Trump administration, which is very inexperienced on the nuclear file. [2:17] It's not something that can come together in just a few hours or even a few days. The JCPOA, [2:23] the Iran nuclear agreement that was signed in 2015, took years to negotiate. So I think there's a [2:30] recognition in Taheran that it's going to take time. And so they're saying, okay, let's at least [2:35] get an agreement on the end of hostilities, and we'll figure something out in the Strait of Hormuz, [2:40] and then we'll hold off on the other stuff. Let's just stay with the nuclear file for a [2:43] second, Mohamed, because Trump has made it clear, hasn't he, that Iran must accept this condition, [2:47] no nuclear weapons, not now or in the future. But do the Iranians see the prospect of a nuclear deal [2:54] as a major point of leverage in any talks with the U.S.? You know, it's very difficult for me to wrap my [3:01] head around the Trump position on the nuclear weapons issue because Iran already signed up to [3:10] a deal, the JCPOA, which I just referenced in 2015, that would have made it effectively impossible for [3:17] them to get a nuclear weapon. They have a fatwa on the books, a religious edict on the books that [3:23] forbids them from developing a nuclear weapon. There is no indication, not even from U.S. intelligence, [3:29] that they were building a nuclear weapon or close to getting to a nuclear weapon. [3:35] And all they've really asked for here is the right, which is their right under international [3:39] law, to enrich uranium to peaceful civilian levels. They have all kinds of creative workarounds for [3:45] the highly enriched uranium. They've proposed to dilute it, to offshore it. So I can't, it's very [3:52] difficult for me to understand what Trump means when he says Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. [3:56] Mohamed, just a final thought to you. I mean, the U.S. is now warning shipping companies against [4:00] paying tolls to the Iranians to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. What do you make of this [4:05] latest threat and what actions could the U.S. take to back up those warnings? [4:11] Well, it's an interesting proposal for sure, right? I mean, Iran believes that it has gained [4:17] significant leverage with their kind of control over the Strait of Hormuz, which, of course, [4:23] they didn't have two months ago or just over two months ago. They want to turn that into a long-term [4:29] strategic win. And so this move is, this is an attempt by the Trump administration to kind of [4:35] cancel that out. If they're, you know, able to do this, if they're able to scare countries, [4:43] you know, from doing this, from paying the toll, then that could have a cost. It could have a cost [4:51] on the Iranians and it could kind of, you know, cause their plan for Hormuz to sort of blow up in [4:58] their face a little bit. All right. We have to leave it there. Mohamed El Masri, professor at the [5:02] Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Many thanks for your time, as always, Mohamed. Thank you. [5:05] Thanks.