US, Iran ‘fighting their way to the negotiating table’, retired US general says

[0:00] Now, with the ceasefire nearing its expiration, let's take a moment to look at the U.S. military deployment and presence in the region. [0:06] The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, has returned to the Middle East. [0:11] It departed the Croatian port of Split in early April after a five-day stop for repairs and resupply. [0:16] The carrier now joins the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is operating in the northern Arabian Sea alongside guided missile warships. [0:23] A third carrier, the USS George H. W. Bush, is rounding the Cape of Good Hope. [0:28] It is expected to arrive by the end of the month, bringing the total to three U.S. carrier strike groups operating in the region. [0:35] The U.S. has deployed more than 10,000 troops, over a dozen warships, and more than 100 aircraft to enforce the blockade on Iran's ports. [0:43] Joining us in the studio is General Mark Kimmett. [0:46] He is a retired U.S. Army Brigadier General and a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs. [0:52] General Kimmett, thank you very much indeed for joining us. [0:54] Thank you very much. [0:55] I mean, with that kind of firepower coming in, is there the possibility that if these talks do not go ahead, that there could be deployment of troops in strategic Iranian areas? [1:05] Well, I think there could, but I think it's more likely that we would continue the air campaign rather than any type of ground operation. [1:14] I think it's important to understand that, as you said, that's a large amount of firepower on those three aircraft carriers. [1:21] But to put it in perspective, we had five aircraft carriers in the Gulf during the last Gulf War and 11 in the region for the first Gulf War. [1:31] So there's a lot of firepower there, but that's not a lot of ground troops to conduct the kind of operations that you might be suggesting. [1:39] Who wants to deal more here, the U.S. or Iran? [1:42] Does Israel want to deal at all, General Kimmett? [1:45] It has been the U.S. policy since the discovery of the Iranian nuclear camp nuclear program that the United States will not tolerate an armed nuclear program inside of Iran. [2:01] Subsequent to that, there is also the issue of the ballistic missiles and the proxies. [2:05] So that's a pretty tall order, and every president has either tried to negotiate or fight a war over those issues. [2:13] I think the view of the Americans is that an armed Iran with a nuclear weapon is an existential threat to our allies in the region and eventually, like North Korea, a threat to America. [2:28] That's the American position. [2:30] The Iranian position is they want to maintain the tenets of the Iranian revolution. [2:37] That's why they're fighting more of a revolutionary type of warfare than a conventional warfare. [2:43] The difference is, over time, it is more likely, in my view, that the Iranians are going to have to back down simply because of the economics and the pain that has been put onto Iran [2:57] through a combination of the sanctions and the most recent war. [3:01] So I would say those that should want it more are the Iranians, but those that may want it more are the United States. [3:08] Now, you know, we've got also some analysts saying that this conflict is heading towards a frozen kind of state characterized by a lack of full-scale combat, [3:17] but generally a low-level military set of tensions, if you will. [3:22] I mean, you can look at Ukraine pre-2022. [3:25] You could even, as you brought up North Korea from 1952, have this ceasefire and no peace agreement. [3:31] Yeah, and you have Pakistan and India as well, the Kashmir. [3:36] Those frozen conflicts are not unusual. [3:39] But I think what makes this different is that a frozen conflict would allow the Iranians to continue their nuclear program, their nuclear aspirations. [3:51] And we could, as we did with North Korea, wake up one day and all of a sudden find Iran as a nuclear power. [3:58] Now, the Iranian parliamentary speaker, who's also a negotiator here, said they're prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield. [4:05] What do you think he could mean here? [4:07] Could it mean the Houthis coming into play in a major way? [4:09] Well, the Houthis are starting to come back in a major way. [4:12] And candidly, I was surprised that they did not reactivate when this war broke out the way they have done in the past, [4:20] the way that Hezbollah did, the way the Khashid inside of Iraq did. [4:23] It could be the Houthis, it could be the Khashid in Iraq that could rise up again. [4:30] They've been fairly innocuous over the last few weeks. [4:34] And then, of course, it could be, as we've seen in so many wars, the fabled wonder weapons coming into play. [4:40] Such as? [4:41] One can only know. [4:42] That's why they're a wonder. [4:44] But I think we have been surprised at the number of rockets and missiles that the Iranians still have, [4:49] the number of drones they still have. [4:51] But to answer your question, as you got me thinking, [4:54] we have not seen a large-scale activation of their speedboat capability inside the Gulf. [5:00] They have hundreds, if not thousands, of these speedboats, all who have anti-ship missiles. [5:06] We've not seen a speedboat swarm the way we have with drone swarms. [5:13] General Kippen, so it's now, because we've only got a few hours to go before this ceasefire does come to an end, [5:19] it's a case of who blinks first, isn't it, really? [5:23] Yeah, I said that before. [5:24] And you have two proud delegations on both sides of the table. [5:30] You've got the Americans with President Trump, who is proud, albeit mercurial. [5:36] And then you've got the Iranians, who are proud. [5:40] And we just don't understand who's making the decisions. [5:43] So we'll have to see. [5:44] But I would hope that simultaneously both sides would blink so we can get back to the negotiations. [5:50] That could be prearranged, couldn't it, I suppose? [5:51] It could be, by the Pakistanis. [5:53] And the Pakistanis are the underrated factor in this entire discussion. [5:59] We don't have time to discuss that. [6:01] No doubt we will do. [6:02] General Mark Kimmett there, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, [6:05] there for Political and Military Affairs. [6:06] Thank you very much indeed. [6:07] Thank you.