US-Iran deal still far from reach : Analysis

[0:00] To discuss all this further now, we're joined by Alan Iyer. [0:03] He's a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute [0:06] and a former senior diplomat on the U.S. negotiating team [0:09] for the 2015 JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal. [0:13] Thank you so much, Mr. Iyer, for being with us on Al Jazeera. [0:16] So we have Iran saying that there won't be any talks [0:19] until a framework is agreed. [0:21] President Trump says a deal is within reach. [0:23] So two completely different versions of reality [0:26] from Washington and Tehran. [0:27] How, first of all, do you interpret these contradictions? [0:32] I don't interpret them. [0:33] I ignore them because the problem is that policy [0:38] is not what people put on social media. [0:40] What President Trump puts on social media, [0:43] what Erakchi puts on social media, [0:45] should not be the focus of too much attention, okay? [0:49] It's not the case that the strait has reverted back [0:53] after Iran opened it. [0:55] Iran never opened it. [0:56] Iran always said there'll be limited passage, [1:00] coordinated with the IRGC Navy, and they'll be tolling. [1:03] What happened was, as a result of President Trump's tweets [1:06] saying the deal was within reach, [1:08] the IRGC put a different spin on what actually is the case, [1:12] and they shut down traffic. [1:14] But the reality is there has been no appreciable change [1:17] in the ability of ships to transit the strait. [1:20] Iran is still going to maintain a chokehold on that [1:23] until they get what they want. [1:25] And in terms of how close we are to a deal, not close at all. [1:29] There is no low-hanging fruit. [1:30] Still substantial differences between the two sides. [1:33] On the differences, and I want to get your expertise [1:36] on the nuclear issue more specifically, [1:38] because you were, of course, part of the negotiating team [1:40] in the GCPOA deal. [1:43] The U.S. today is demanding zero enrichment. [1:46] Iran refuses that and offers time-bound suspension. [1:50] Trump has also said that they've agreed to hand over [1:53] their enriched uranium. [1:55] The Iranians have denied that as well. [1:57] What concessions, if any, could Tehran make here? [2:00] And can they realistically come up with a different mechanism [2:03] established under the JCPOA regarding, you know, [2:07] uranium stockpile limits and monitoring? [2:10] Can they come up with a better deal? [2:13] Well, unfortunately, as a result of this war, [2:15] whatever deal the U.S. will get will be worse [2:18] than the one they would have gotten had they not attacked. [2:21] Whatever deal the U.S. could get will be essentially the JCPOA, [2:25] which is Iran is willing to temporarily suspend uranium [2:28] and put limits on the uranium it keeps within country [2:32] in exchange for a source of money. [2:35] Sanctions relief, unfreezing of blockaded Iranian funds, [2:39] that's the essential calculus that the two sides have to play with. [2:44] Restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for money. [2:48] The problem is, is that Iran's demands, excuse me, [2:53] U.S. demands of Iran haven't changed since before the war, [2:56] which is no indigenous enrichment, which Iran will never agree to, [3:01] and no uranium on Iranian soil, which Iran might well agree to. [3:07] They've indicated they would be willing to keep minimal reserves [3:11] of enriched uranium on Iranian soil. [3:13] But the key variable is, what does Iran get in return? [3:18] And what do you think they would want to get in return, [3:21] especially on the question of transferring enriched uranium? [3:24] President Trump talked about joint cooperation on that. [3:28] How would that work practically? [3:31] Well, there's two things Iran wants. [3:33] It wants security. [3:34] So it's not attacked again six months and a year from now by Iran and Israel. [3:38] That's hard to get verbally. [3:41] But luckily for Iran, they've found a way to guarantee that, [3:44] which is the Strait of Hormuz, [3:46] which is the new equation is you pressure us, we close the strait. [3:51] And the ability Iran has to close the strait [3:53] requires so little military power on their part, [3:56] it effectively can't be taken away from them. [3:58] That's one thing they want. [4:00] The second thing they want is money. [4:02] They've got anywhere from $300 billion to a trillion dollars worth of damage. [4:05] Their economy was horrible even before the war. [4:09] So they need money, whether that's reparations, [4:11] which no one wants to pay them, [4:13] unblocked Iranian funds, [4:14] which isn't anywhere near enough to pay for that, [4:17] or relaxing, if not eradication of sanctions, [4:21] which is politically unpalpable for the Trump administration to give [4:25] with elections coming up. [4:26] But that's what Iran is looking for. [4:29] And so what do you see as the main differences today [4:32] between the appetite and willingness to get things done by Iran right now [4:38] compared to what you were dealing with during the JCPOA negotiations? [4:42] And do you think there are lessons from those negotiations [4:44] that are most relevant or that are being overlooked today [4:48] that could be helpful? [4:52] Well, unfortunately, we've blotted the copybook. [4:55] I mean, you don't need a lot of trust between two sides to negotiate, [4:58] but there has to be some. [4:59] The fact that the U.S. twice attacked Iran during negotiations [5:05] weakens the chance. [5:07] Plus, there's a new leadership in Iran. [5:09] We killed the existing Iranian leadership, [5:11] but the ones that have taken their place are more hardline, [5:15] more radical, more militaristic. [5:17] It's the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. [5:20] So this is not the Obama era [5:22] where both sides were willing to negotiate. [5:26] Iran was looking for sanctions relief, [5:27] and the U.S. was looking to put a cap [5:29] and put the Iranian nuclear program in a box. [5:33] Right now, Trump is looking to eradicate the nuclear program, [5:37] which Iran is unwilling to do. [5:39] And Iran is looking for cash guarantees [5:42] or cash of more money that the U.S. is unwilling to give. [5:46] So it's much, much harder now than it was back then. [5:50] To say nothing of the fact that the rate of Hormoz [5:52] is a new ticking time bomb. [5:54] Indeed. [5:54] Alan Ayer, thank you so much for your insight. [5:57] Thank you for sharing your expertise with us. [5:58] Alan Ayer is a former senior diplomat [6:01] and who was part of the negotiating team [6:03] for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. [6:05] Thank you very much.