US-Iran ceasefire: Can pressure, incentives, and risks deliver a final deal? — This is America

[0:07] this is america with al jazeera's exclusive interview with pakistan's ambassador to the u.s [0:12] rizwan saeed sheikh as peace talks between the u.s and iran kick off in islamabad what can we [0:19] expect from these talks and what are the challenges that stand in the way of a lasting peace i'll be [0:23] back later in the show for more on that but to start us off here's anna burns francis thanks [0:29] manny america's negotiating team is winging its way to pakistan for those talks the most important [0:36] in recent history in a moment we'll go to mike hannah who joins us from the white house today [0:41] with more on the pressure facing the u.s delegation meanwhile authorities in islamabad have been [0:47] preparing for the arrival of delegations from the u.s and iran streets have been cleared in a city [0:54] with a population of more than a million people a two-day holiday has been declared and security is [0:59] visibly present on main roads so let's get straight to that exclusive interview with pakistan's [1:05] ambassador to the united states rizwan saeed sheikh sat down with our correspondent manny rapalo [1:11] pakistani ambassador rizwan saeed sheikh thank you so much for joining us today on al jazeera [1:18] ambassador it was pakistan which managed to push iran and the united states to agree to this two-week [1:27] ceasefire what was the magic word what was the x factor that finally led to that breaking of that [1:34] deadlock well in diplomacy there is no magic word it's always a process a gradual process that requires [1:45] a lot of patience a lot of perseverance and a lot of prolificity as you go and i think each of these [1:59] three points that i mentioned went into the intense diplomatic effort that took place over the past few [2:08] weeks actually and i can assure you that there were many crests and troughs and you know ups and downs [2:19] but ultimately since there was a lot of constructive positive engagement there was a lot of spirit [2:30] in the effort that pakistan conducted not just on its own but in consultation with multiple partners [2:38] i mean the only thing perhaps that brings the spotlight on pakistan is that we had the confidence [2:48] of all parties ambassador as you said this is an intense diplomatic effort can you talk about what [2:56] sort of pressures we saw from gcc countries in terms of bringing iran and the united states to that [3:02] negotiating table i think as i've mentioned that there was constructive engagement and there was [3:07] positivity so pressure is perhaps not the right word there was constructive spirit so i think maybe we [3:18] can say that there were positive influences from all around ambassador as you said pakistan has placed [3:26] itself at the center of these negotiations obviously pakistan is a facilitator a mediator here but from [3:32] a diplomatic point of view how would you define success in these talks i think uh the fact that [3:39] these talks are taking place is a major success on its own because diplomacy has been afforded opportunity [3:50] and regardless of this particular episode the world history tells us that it is always diplomacy that has [3:58] resolved matters that could not be resolved on battlegrounds there certainly is a lot of hope around [4:06] the world in anticipation that this conflict will come to an end soon there's a lot of pressure on [4:11] pakistan to make sure that that happens can you give us an idea ambassador of what these negotiations are [4:17] going to be looking like beyond behind the scenes will both parties here be sitting at a table together looking [4:24] at each other across the negotiating table or will pakistani mediators be having to go from room to room [4:30] what can we expect this to look like i believe all options are open i mean it's not that these negotiations [4:39] are taking place without a backdrop of such negotiations similar negotiations between these two conflicting [4:48] parties have actually taken place recently and there have been formats that can be drawn on [4:56] there as maybe the the event or the negotiation progresses there can be other formats that can be drawn on so [5:07] i believe it would not be good to either you know have prerequisites or prejudgments or preemptions [5:15] but rather let the process flow in accordance with the comfort level of the two conflicting parties but [5:26] there are multiple choices in any such negotiation and i believe they can and they may be all drawn on [5:38] ambassador i'd like to speak on the challenges that lay ahead here considering the attacks by israel [5:44] in lebanon do you have any concerns that these talks could be derailed by israel's military actions i think [5:52] now that the delegations are expected in islamabad fairly soon and may actually be on their way as we [6:02] speak we should not be looking at or discussing derailment i think that level of commitment [6:10] to let the negotiations take place is there on both sides and hence not just that that the delegations have [6:18] been designated they are airborne maybe as we speak so it should take place but yes the atmospherics [6:31] would certainly be important so whatever has been agreed upon going into these negotiations [6:40] needs to be in play needs to be implemented and any digressions or any deviations [6:50] there from or even i mean beyond the framework or the discussion points that went into this process [7:00] if there is any untoward thing from elsewhere it would have maybe uh or it would cost perhaps [7:08] uh a negative uh shadow on the negotiation process itself what kind of timeline [7:18] is set here and is there a readiness on the part of pakistan to continue with these talks for as long [7:23] as it takes even if that means continuing these talks at a lower level well i think i started by [7:30] saying that diplomacy is a gradual process not to say that it cannot bring about quick decisions or quick [7:39] actions which perhaps are the need of the situation uh in this particular episode of conflict between the [7:48] united states and iran but pakistan i mean like any other facilitator that has ever been there in such [7:57] processes stands ready to do whatever it takes to facilitate for as long as we have to facilitate [8:05] we cherish we value and we are grateful for the trust reposed in us and as a repository of that trust [8:14] uh we would be willing uh to go the whole distance ambassador rizwan saeed sheikh of pakistan thank you [8:21] very much for joining us today on al jazeera thank you this is clearly a crucial meeting for all the [8:28] parties involved let's go now to mike hannah who joins us live from the white house mike what do we know [8:34] about how the us is approaching these talks well maybe it will be instructive to take a look at how the [8:39] negotiating team is set up now a number of the negotiators have taken part in indirect negotiations [8:45] with the iranians in the past these include jared kushner steve whitkoff the presidential advisors [8:51] along with secretary of state marco rubio as well as the commander of the central command admiral brad [8:58] cooper but there's one very important difference and that is that the vice president jd vance has been [9:04] added to the negotiating team now very hastily as well i must stress because he was in hungary and [9:10] was brought back when he was appointed as chief negotiator and this a critical point because it is [9:16] known that iran wanted to do business with jd vance they preferred him to the other negotiators so [9:23] certainly this is in a way an easing into the negotiations by the trump administration putting jd vance [9:30] in this position but shortly before he left for islamabad this is what he had to say we're looking [9:37] forward to the negotiation i think it's going to be positive we'll foresee as the president united [9:42] states said if the iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith we're certainly willing to extend the [9:47] open hand if they're going to try to play us then they're going to find that the negotiating team [9:51] is not that receptive so we're trying to have a positive negotiation the president has gave us some [9:55] pretty clear guidelines and we're going to see so clearly mike there is some political [10:01] pressure at play here what are you hearing well very much there was political pressure although [10:08] the white house has denied it that political pressure domestic variety played any role in the [10:14] president's decision to accept these round of negotiations but there's no doubt that economically [10:21] the president was worried midterm elections coming up and this perhaps is one of the reasons [10:27] why jd vance has been added to the negotiating team because president trump wants it to succeed [10:32] he's facing these economic issues he's facing a potential election bruising in the midterms and he [10:39] wanted to get an off-ramp and maybe he believes jd vance is the person who can help him get that off-ramp [10:46] with successful negotiation mike hannah at the white house thank you while the us and israel were largely on [10:54] the same page strategically when the war began its end will likely depend on a convergence between the [11:00] u.s and iran here's richard gaysford for nearly 40 days and 40 nights iran endured more than 13 000 [11:10] attacks designed to destroy its military and dismantle the industrial complexes that supply it [11:18] that kind of pressure is hard to sustain the civilian death toll from the bombardment could exceed [11:25] three thousand although that level of loss is unlikely to drive iranian negotiators to agree [11:32] terms domestic public opinion is thought not to be an element of pressure on the iranian regime when [11:39] it comes to the talks but there's no doubt reaching a deal could boost iran's struggling economy [11:47] already suffering under tough international sanctions the threat of further financial pressure [11:54] will certainly be a factor when negotiations start iran though has leverage using the strait [12:01] of hormuz to create a pressure point of its own on the u.s to reach a deal and stop the bombs [12:09] by closing the vital choke point it's been able to impact u.s allies curtailing the flow of oil from [12:16] neighboring gulf states where damage to vital infrastructure and a loss of business and tourism [12:23] due to the fear of further attacks has led to demands for a deal to be done when this conflict [12:30] is over the strait will open up naturally it'll just open up naturally they're going to want to [12:35] be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild it will resume the flowing and the [12:43] gas prices will rapidly come back down well despite previously downplaying the impact of oil price rises [12:50] the trump administration can't avoid the cost of living crisis that comes alongside this conflict [12:55] the petrol prices have certainly shot up and that's affected food and to other industries too [13:03] that's led former friends to call out the president's handling of the crisis you don't [13:09] threaten to wipe out an entire civilization we're talking about civilians just casually in a social media [13:17] post it's a growing pressure from within his own republican ranks as america heads towards the [13:24] midterm elections with anti-war sentiment galvanizing the opposition finishing a conflict that the [13:34] president started will be a priority inside the white house self-preservation could be the biggest [13:41] pressure of all on donald trump to get a deal done richard gaysford al jazeera washington all right [13:50] joining us in the studio to dissect what might happen over the next couple of days is douglas [13:55] silliman former u.s ambassador to kuwait and iraq and barbara lee former u.s ambassador and assistant [14:00] secretary of state for near eastern affairs all right ambassador silliman i'll start with you [14:06] will the iranian and u.s teams be in the same room this time that's a very good question because i don't [14:12] know that there's been enough trust built up between the two i also don't know the style of [14:17] pakistani mediation the omani style that has been running the the talks up to this point is really [14:24] running from room to room and passing on messages that may be a good place to start but i hope that [14:29] they will eventually be in the same room talking face to face ambassador leaf what's the atmosphere [14:34] like in the room or rooms when you're undertaking negotiations like this so uh as doug said we've had [14:41] some years now of at iranian insistence really since 2018 that they not directly uh just talk [14:49] to uh u.s officials since the pull out of the iran nuclear accord so the atmosphere is altogether [14:57] changed at this point it's very charged on the other hand the vice president made a couple of remarks [15:03] as he left uh budapest which seemed to be sort of trying to sweeten the atmosphere a little bit [15:08] it certainly it's no less charged perhaps than it was previously the the stakes i would it would be [15:16] fair to say are quite high at this point yes absolutely the highest yeah ambassador these talks [15:22] starting saturday at what point watching from the outside do we start to worry that things are not going [15:29] well i think one of the things that you should look at is whether or not the irritants on the edges of [15:34] the ceasefire israeli attacks in lebanon iraqi militia attacks on american and kurdistan targets in iraq [15:42] and rhetoric from both tehran and perhaps in the gulf and continued iranian attacks in the gulf [15:49] if those begin to subside that may indicate that there is some progress but frankly i think that [15:55] there are so many deep core issues that both sides have to deal with i'm not entirely sure whether either [16:03] tehran or washington has its set of strategic goals for these talks i would rather imagine [16:09] they're going to walk into this process see what they can get and whether or not the leadership back [16:15] in the capital will actually agree to the concessions for the advantages that they will [16:19] get in the negotiations so on that basis ambassador leaf how much of pakistan's role is dependent on the [16:25] success of these talks how good do they have to be as a mediator they have to be good good enough but [16:30] really um it is it really all comes down to that negotiating space and and the time frame adds into [16:38] this there are of course things that uh can collide very directly onto these talks so what do you mean [16:45] when you say that well i mean lebanon is the point of volatility at this point although i notice with [16:50] interest that the lead iranian negotiator the national speaker uh kalibaf through another condition a [16:58] condition for even starting the talks today saying we were promised um unfreezing of iranian assets [17:04] so it's not only lebanon but it's also that and meanwhile the strait of hormuz is de facto still [17:10] blocked yeah so that is a complicating factor coming absolutely but yet everyone is still [17:15] winging their way there so we still have hope at this point the talks will start pakistan's ambassador [17:21] has said the fact that talks are even taking place is a success would you agree with that ambassador [17:26] silliman it is a success because what he also said is that at the end of the day when you have got [17:32] an armed conflict that you want to end the world does not see many total victories where there is a [17:38] clear winner and loser in the military struggle you have to come up with a compromise both tehran and [17:44] washington have strong incentives to end this war quickly the question is have they really as i said [17:50] before decided what they are willing to give away in exchange for what they want to get from the talks so [17:56] the talks are crucial but it's going to take some time to find out where there is some overlap in [18:03] positions and what each side is willing to give away to get what it wants you have both served [18:08] presidents from across the aisle i'll start with you ambassador silliman what makes these negotiations [18:14] different then for the team from the united states negotiating on behalf of president trump well [18:19] thinking back and ambassador leaf and i were both ambassadors in the gulf at the time of the [18:24] negotiations of the jcpoa but more than a decade ago at that point the united states had a very strong [18:31] technical team a very good series of uh persian speak persian language speakers we had intelligent [18:39] support we had a very strong team that was able to go into the minute details of whatever the iranians [18:45] might be putting on the offer i do not think that vice president vance is going to have that strong and [18:51] that large and an american team to support him by contrast the iranian team going to islamabad is a [18:59] very strong team the i mean kalibaf the parliamentary speaker has a long time been in the irgc but you've [19:07] also got the foreign minister the deputy foreign minister it's a strong team with a lot of experience [19:12] in negotiations so i think that the american negotiating team could be at a disadvantage just in terms of [19:19] experience you're sounding some concern there about the heft of the team ambassador leaf would you agree [19:23] well yes um for for the for this for the long run uh and the long run being the whole two weeks or [19:30] longer if the president accords a further time or if it doesn't break down at the outset yes i'd like to [19:36] see a much fuller delegation that supports the principles with real expertise but the first round [19:43] presumably is not the last round and presumably the vice president isn't staying out there the full two [19:47] weeks this may just in fact be a sort of a testing of the waters they revert to washington tehran and [19:54] then they really do need to come in with deep going uh technical expertise on on the iran uh on the iran [20:02] and uh the nuclear issues yeah uh what pressure then is the us facing as it heads into saturday's [20:08] negotiations well iran's continued closure of the strait of humus has seen fuel prices surge across the states to [20:15] their highest levels since 2022 while the financial markets have been pushed and pulled by the [20:20] instability caused by the war and all that's led to slumping approval ratings for both the president [20:26] and the conflict leading to fears about how that will impact the midterm elections in november if [20:32] negotiations fail the u.s military also faces the prospect of a protracted conflict with an increasing [20:38] human and financial cost ambassador silliman what then are the priorities for the u.s team i wish i [20:45] knew the answer to that question i think for president trump the priority is to end the fighting reduce the [20:52] pressure on the economy and the if not lower the gas prices quickly be able to tell his constituents who [21:00] have to vote in november for republicans or democrats that he is doing what he what they want him to do [21:06] so he will want to find somewhere where he can declare a victory relatively quickly and i do not know whether that is [21:14] evacuation of the highly enriched uranium a shutdown of enrichment a real true reopening of the strait of hormuz [21:21] or any of the other things that the president has put publicly on the table in the past month it's a little [21:25] hard to tell isn't it ambassador leaf what is the one defining pain point here so the defining pain point is [21:31] is the straight of hormuz it's a pass fail test anything that looks like closure anything that [21:38] looks like conditioned opening anything that is not a return to what it was before which is an international [21:44] uh artery for commerce that is unimpeded will uh have the economic impact at home and in fact [21:51] we're expecting those impacts um over the next two weeks to really begin to bite can we talk about the [21:57] strait there ambassador silliman because there were talks before war erupted and the strait was not [22:04] even on the table how much has it complicated things now that there has been a conflict and that [22:09] strait is effectively blockaded it is frankly thus far in the conflict the biggest iranian strategic [22:14] victory iran has decided that without really putting many mines in the straits or firing many shots at [22:20] boats by simply warning tankers and freighters that they should not pass through the straits of hormuz [22:26] the owners of the ships and the insurance companies have decided the risk is too great [22:30] so iran has never really uh operationalized this threat before i'm assuming they did so because [22:38] the regime was really under pressure with the top level or two being uh destroyed by the united [22:43] states and israel but it is a powerful powerful uh risk for the world economy and iran now realizes [22:51] that they don't really even have to have significant military capacity to effectively close the strait [22:56] so uh it's going to be a very big uh lift for vice president vance and the pakistanis to reopen [23:03] the straits without some concessions from the american side that is the issue isn't it ambassador leaf is [23:08] it is there is no real reason very clearly why iran would give that up at this point well there are [23:13] reasons and and it's not as though the administration doesn't have cards of its own the problem is the [23:18] clock that is ticking and the pressure points that are visible on the american side that are less visible [23:24] on the iranian side much to the frustration of both the civilian and the military leadership [23:29] on the u.s side they there was an expectation that the decapitation strike followed by several days of [23:35] really punishing uh missile and air strikes would in fact bring iran the regime to the its knees or to [23:42] sue for peace and five and a half weeks later in fact you have a more emboldened more radical [23:48] uh more self-confident regime they have a huge deterrent now that they have been looking for [23:55] when all the other pillars of deterrence that have stood them uh in good stead for four decades have [24:01] collapsed so they're not going to give it up easily but it is a pass-fail test we must we must get it back [24:09] open again and so what then ambassador silliman will the u.s have to concede on what concessions will it [24:15] have to make to get the straight open i think that really depends upon what else iran is willing to [24:20] negotiate on and give up i'm assuming that the united states will insist on some access to control [24:28] and evacuation of the highly enriched uranium i'm hoping that that is the case i do not know how [24:35] much they will insist on support for regional proxy forces how much they will insist on [24:40] iran's inability to to produce drones what has happened is iran has put on the table [24:45] after american strategic planning for this war an entirely new goal that the united states has to [24:51] achieve that they didn't take into account seriously before the first attacks on behalf of israel so [24:56] i think that there will probably be things that the united states will have to give up [25:00] i just don't know what they are yet because i don't know what the iranians are willing to give up [25:05] i think iran really wants more than anything else regime survival [25:08] um but they'd also like to have a fee going through the strait of hormuz and a piece of the [25:14] revenue from that i think international law and most of the international community will be very much [25:19] against that because of the global economic cost the problem is now trying to walk some of of what has [25:24] happened back if i've read that right ambassador leaf how much of this becomes carrot and stick for what [25:30] incentives the u.s offers to iran so look um originally yes the regime's uh paramount interest was [25:37] survival and then as i say it wanted to recover some kind of deterrent again against a resumption [25:43] in six months time or or shorter of of war from israel or from the u.s but it wants desperately needs [25:51] desperately economic relief so the administration and the president spoke openly about this he has a [25:58] a whole set of of of uh sanctions that he can begin to peel away conditioned on iranian behavior [26:04] there is trade space there and in past negotiations the iranians have shown a certain amount of [26:10] flexibility on that heu the the uranium and on other elements of the the program i think the proxies [26:17] frankly can be taken off the table as handled differently in bilateral means if you will um the [26:24] ballistic missile piece is going to be a very hard one to square the circle on can i ask you then [26:30] each for some final thoughts the chance of getting a deal out of these talks ambassador silliman i don't [26:36] think that there will be a complete deal in the next two weeks but if there is sufficient progress [26:40] both sides are more than willing to extend the talks and have uh more detailed more specific [26:47] conversations probably not in the presence of vice president advance and uh speaker khalidov yeah they [26:52] might need to beef up the team a bit i would hope they would beef up the team for those talks all [26:56] right ambassador leaf as always in such um situations there is the critical and there there's the urgent [27:02] and there's the important and the urgent is the straight of hormuz that's what has to come out of [27:07] if not this session over the two weeks some sort of mechanism to keep it fully open not metered and [27:13] managed by the iranians what's really important however right behind it is the nuclear program so i think [27:20] getting to something that lays out a sort of a road map to those other more technical and complex [27:27] negotiation is is what's to be hoped for but somewhere in there has got to be a reopening of [27:32] the straight of hormuz yeah do you but do either of you or both of you see the strait being reopened within [27:37] this two-week window it's possible i do i see a possibility yeah it's but it is an opening that the iranians could walk back on very quickly with just a few tweets and a few [27:47] public statements they are looking for the kind of assurance and commitment that they believe they [27:53] haven't seen before and i i think there are a variety of ways you can do it diplomacy is a hard slog and [27:57] that's what you need to to have yeah it's going to be a tough two weeks yeah ambassador barbara lee [28:02] former ambassador and assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs thank you and ambassador [28:05] silliman former u.s ambassador to kuwait and iraq thank you both thank you very much all right well that's [28:12] all from the team here in washington dc on this is america we'll keep following the decisions that [28:18] shape the u.s and influence the world if you want to catch up on this episode or previous ones head to [28:25] our website aljazeera.com or you can check out our youtube channel for now we're going to hand back to [28:31] al jazeera's global headquarters in doha thanks for joining us and we'll see you again soon