US intel warns Putin is planning a NATO attack: What we know

[0:00] There is new U.S. intelligence that is indicating Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test [0:06] NATO's unity with a limited attack on a NATO allied country. The assessments warn that Russia [0:12] could conduct a small-scale incursion or a cyber attack designed to test NATO's commitment to [0:18] Article 5. Article 5 states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Joining me now [0:23] is Zach Cohen. Zach, what does this assessment tell us specifically about what Putin might be [0:29] planning? Yeah, Jake, it effectively lays out that there's a window of time where Vladimir Putin [0:33] believes he could test and see how much he can get away with effectively as far as encroaching on NATO [0:38] territory, challenging the member states to their commitment to Article 5 to defend an attack against [0:46] one is an attack against all. And that is really predicated on this idea that U.S. officials and [0:51] NATO officials believe that Putin is growing frustrated by taking serious losses in the war [0:56] with Ukraine and could move to shift his tactic by focusing on NATO in particular. He does see [1:02] potentially an opportunity here to expose some fractures within the alliance and could particularly [1:08] target some of the smaller, less strong member states in an effort to see how much action he can [1:16] get away with before crossing that Article 5 threshold. And I'm told that this intelligence does suggest that [1:21] most likely targets would be places like the Baltics or Poland, places where we've actually seen some [1:26] recent Russian activity. Yeah, drones and cyber attacks. Exactly. And over the last several years, [1:32] we've seen a pretty steady pace of that kind of activity. But this intelligence lays out various [1:36] scenarios in various ways Putin might want to test the alliance's strength. Now, the one sort of other [1:41] alternative here is that if Putin is able to secure some sort of a face-saving agreement of some kind [1:47] of Ukraine, there is potential there for him not to have motive for shifting his attention elsewhere. [1:54] But again, the talks, the dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, intermediated by the United States, [2:01] has stalled, we're told. So it's really up in the air here. And we are told senior officials are very [2:05] concerned about this very real threat. What's your reaction to this reporting? I think it has to be [2:13] taken seriously. The Russians have been playing around with incursions for the last couple years. [2:23] In last September, they used an armed incursion to go after Poland. In May, they used an armed drone to go [2:33] after Romania. And just this last week, an explosive-laden drone was found in Germany that belonged to a Russian [2:44] intelligence team. So these are real threats. And Putin will use either cyber or use drones or could [2:54] possibly even use a military incursion to be able to test NATO and test Article 5 and whether NATO will [3:03] respond. I think we have to take this very seriously. And obviously at the center of all this is the war [3:09] with Ukraine. Does this tell you anything or give you any indication of how Putin is thinking about [3:16] this war? Yeah, I think Putin is frustrated because he can't find an off-ramp to deal with the situation [3:26] in Ukraine. He's taken quite a hit. And I think he's looking for other ways to try to assert Russian [3:35] aggressiveness. So it all fits together. I think we have to take this intelligence assessment as a real [3:43] threat to NATO. And we have to respond. We're going to have to respond. And right now, because of [3:51] our missile systems and our supply of weapons being down, this is a vulnerable period for the United States. [4:01] Does Putin look at the U.S. bogged down in Iran with this missile defense issue and see that this [4:08] may be his moment to strike? Well, I think he is watching the Trump administration in Iran very [4:17] carefully. And what he smells is fear, the fear that Trump is in a situation where he doesn't have [4:25] a ready solution to the problem of American gasoline prices at the pump for American consumers. [4:33] And in the weeks and months before an election, that may well be a place where Putin could try to put [4:40] pressure on another NATO country. But bear in mind, if Russia had the resources to really [4:47] undertake a major military move, you have to ask, why hasn't he done it in Ukraine in the last four [4:52] years to get out of the gridlock that's destroying the Russian military day by day by day? A war of attrition [5:00] that Russia thought it could win, that it's now the Ukrainian side that's attriting, the Russian [5:07] side. I'd like to know where these extra military assets are that the Russians could use to threaten [5:13] NATO countries. As I say, if Putin had extra military assets, it's hard to understand why he didn't [5:18] deploy them in Ukraine years ago. Ambassador Bolton, great to have you. Thank you so much. [5:26] Thank you. And Putin isn't just threatening NATO. He's dramatically escalating attacks inside of [5:31] Ukraine, ramping up drone and missile attacks as Ukraine is running dangerously low on the [5:36] defenses it needs to stop them. Fred Pleitgen is out front. [5:40] Russian drones allegedly hitting a warehouse in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, as well as a railway [5:47] facility Moscow claims is linked to Ukraine's military. Russia's army is drastically expanding [5:54] drone strike on Ukraine's logistics and infrastructure. In Moscow, Russian President [6:00] Vladimir Putin trying to regain battlefield momentum, shaking up his general staff. For the first time [6:07] ever appointing a coordinator for drone warfare. Everybody knows well that we decided to create [6:14] a new branch of the armed forces, the Unmanned Systems Forces, he says. The goal was to find a [6:20] person who had proven himself in the best possible way in this role. Putin also ramping up missile [6:26] strikes, a recent nighttime aerial blitz targeting Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, killing 17 people and destroying [6:34] several warehouses. Ukraine's president saying a shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors, [6:41] exacerbated by extensive U.S. Patriot use during President Trump's war against Iran, has seriously [6:48] weakened Ukraine's ability to defend against ballistic missiles. Since the beginning of 2026, [6:55] Zelensky said at a meeting with his general staff, Ukraine started receiving just a third of the [7:02] anti-ballistic missiles. Russia's expanded air campaign comes just as Ukraine believed it was [7:07] turning the tide in the four and a half year war. Near daily, Ukrainian long distance drone attacks [7:14] against Russian energy sites and Russia's largest online retailer have taken a toll, Moscow acknowledges. [7:22] Russian law severely restricts media from showing the aftermath of Ukrainian drone strikes, [7:27] but these are some of the places where Kyiv's drones have hit energy sites and warehouses in just [7:33] the past five days. The war certainly feels a lot closer to home for many Russians these days. A lot [7:38] of them, quite frankly, are concerned about their safety amid the ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, [7:44] but there is also big fear about the state of this country's economy and whether it could sustain [7:50] long-term damage. Thousands of small Russian businesses use online retailer Wildberries for sales, [7:56] and those sales have often dipped so dramatically, some pickup points are shutting down, one owner says. [8:03] In order to break even, we need to make 250,000 rubles in profits, but now we don't do it, [8:09] he says. The last month has been entirely loss-making. But so far, the Kremlin is showing no sign of [8:16] changing course, instead vowing to continue what it still calls its special military operation in Ukraine. [8:23] Replicating CNN Moscow.