US can open Strait of Hormuz with 'a little more time', says President Trump

[0:00] So as pressure mounts for President Trump's administration to find a quick resolution [0:04] to the war with Iran, President Trump has claimed that the U.S. can open the Strait of Hormuz. That [0:09] was the post that he wrote in the last half hour or so. Let me just recap that for you so you can [0:16] see exactly what he said. Posting on his Truth Social platform, he wrote, with a little more [0:21] time, we can easily open the Hormuz Strait, take the oil and make a fortune. Clearly not one of the [0:29] U.S. stated war aims when this conflict began. And with me now, former senior officer in the [0:36] British military and host of the Security Brief, Mikey Kay. Welcome back, Mikey. Donald Trump says [0:41] the U.S. could take the Strait easily. Could they? I think the simple answer is absolutely not. [0:48] Let's take a look at the Hormuz Strait. I mean, the geography of it is really, [0:51] really interesting for starters. This is the Hormuz Strait. On the left-hand side of the [0:54] screen, Anita, you've got what traffic used to be like pre-February 28th. [1:00] And then you can see, so the red dots, basically, are the tankers on the left. You can see there's [1:04] a significant amount on the left, but the actual Strait itself on the right has dried up. Now, [1:09] the geography is really interesting because the widest point between Kesham Island and the tip [1:15] that you can see there in the bottom of the screen is 21 nautical miles. And there are two, [1:20] three-kilometer channels for tankers both coming into the Persian Gulf and out of the Persian Gulf. [1:27] So basically, in terms of threat, [1:30] the Strait is right underneath the nose of any Iranian capability. And we can come onto that [1:36] in a second. But I think what's interesting is if Trump wanted to do this, he's going to have [1:43] a significant amount of U.S. capability that is appropriate to that in order to do that. [1:48] And what we've seen coming into the region over the last couple of weeks, I think we've got some [1:54] footage here. I think the key capability would be the amphibious ready groups. [1:59] Now, [2:01] there are two amphibious ready groups. So the ARG on the left there, that's amphibious ready. On the [2:05] right, you've got the carrier, which is the Abraham Lincoln. That's obviously a critical part to any [2:11] attempt to control and get maritime superiority over the Strait. But the two amphibious ready [2:16] groups are really important. One is the USS Boxer. That's joined by two amphibious assault ships, [2:22] so three in total on that ARG. The USS Boxer is interesting. It's got what's called a well deck. [2:28] So the well deck basically allows Marines [2:31] to go from direct from ship to shore. So that's a key capability. And on the USS Boxer, [2:36] there's what's called a Marine Expeditionary Unit, and that will have roughly around 2,000 Marines. [2:41] Look at the second amphibious ready group, which is the USS Tripoli. We don't have a picture of [2:45] the USS Tripoli up there, but it's very similar, but it doesn't have a well deck. It's called a [2:49] lightning carrier. So it's specific to air power. So there are F-35s on top of that. You've then got [2:55] the, on the right, you've got the carrier, the Lincoln. There was the Ford, but the Ford has had [2:59] to limp back to Crete. And that's the USS Tripoli. So that's the USS Tripoli. So that's the USS Tripoli. [3:00] And open source intelligence indicates that that will be out of action for two years. There is [3:06] chatter about the GW Bush coming into theatre, but that hasn't been confirmed yet. So you've got that. [3:13] You've also then got the 82nd Airborne, which are paratroopers. I think we've got some footage of [3:18] the 82nd Airborne. So on the left is the 82nd Airborne. They're called the Tip of the Spear. [3:22] They're from the Quick Reaction Brigade. Rapid Response, yeah. [3:25] Rapid Response. They've got an 18-hour notice to move. So they, [3:30] they've got a priority intelligence channel, say, coming into the reason with potential for [3:34] another 10,000. So that's significant. They basically wear parachutes. They can deploy [3:38] through aviation and they can, they can drop onto any potential targets. And what's interesting [3:42] about the 82nd Airborne is, is that if we can go back to the Strait of Hormuz graphic again, [3:49] you can see that really large island in the top there, Anita. That's called Kashim Island. It's [3:54] about 84 nautical miles long. And that is full of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, [4:00] as you can see on the screen. You've then got a number of other islands. They're much smaller. [4:03] I don't know if you can see on the screen, but there's around 8 to 10 other small islands. And [4:06] there are three critical ones to, to the west of the Strait of Hormuz. So basically inside the [4:13] Strait of Hormuz. So basically in order for the US to do this, they would have to put boots on [4:18] the ground. They'd have to soften up the targets of Kashim Island. Then they'd have to put boots [4:21] on the ground through all of those islands in order to secure maritime superiority. [4:27] Now strategically, because of the geography, [4:29] which you've explained, [4:30] it's not a straightforward task, is it? Despite all that, you know, hardware and personnel. [4:36] Yeah, so it's not. And if we can go back to the Strait of Hormuz, I know we keep coming back to [4:41] this, but there's another key point on here, which is if you look at to the, on the right [4:46] hand of the screen, if you look to the north, to the top of Kashim Island, that almost looks [4:50] like a shark. That is mountainous terrain that goes, that has an altitude that rises rapidly. [4:56] So we've talked about the Iranian threats, which I think we've [5:00] got some good examples of, but I think we've got some good examples of, but I think we've got some [5:00] some good examples of, but I think we've got some good examples of, but I think we've got some good [5:00] some good examples of, but I think we've got some good some footage of fast attack boats, Shaheads. [5:04] Yeah, I mean, that brings me on to the next question, really. What capabilities do the [5:09] Iranians have to respond to any efforts to actually take, to reopen this Strait by force? [5:14] We've had conversations, haven't we, going on here in London and elsewhere about diplomatic [5:18] efforts to reopen the Strait. But if the US was to follow through on this threat from President Trump, [5:23] how could the Iranians respond? [5:25] Right. So the biggest, the critical vulnerability of US capability that [5:30] would be required in order to get anywhere near securing that Strait are the amphibious ready [5:34] groups. You've got six amphibious assault ships, they're large, and they would have to get within [5:39] a certain proximity. To put them anywhere close to the Strait of Hormuz would risk strategic failure, [5:46] because going back to your question, it's the unconventional sort of asymmetric threat that [5:52] Iran has. If we go back to the Strait of Hormuz graphic, you start with the conventional threat, [5:55] which is ballistic missiles. I already think through open source intelligence that the [6:00] US has miscalculated just how much of the ballistic missile program that is attrited [6:05] inside Iran. And if you go to the north of Kashim Island, that's terrain that basically [6:12] has altitude on it, so overlooks the Strait. So the Iranians could put ballistic missiles [6:17] on there, which could potentially target one of those amphibious ready group ships, six of them. [6:21] That would be such risk on, it would be quite a dangerous move. In military pilots, [6:27] we call it courses of action. That would be the most dangerous course of action. [6:30] Then you've got the Shahed 136. I think we've got a picture of the drone here, [6:35] just to show the viewers what it looks like. This is a low-cost, mass-produced, [6:41] unconventional threat that travels at about 120 miles an hour. It's got a 20 to 60 kilogram [6:46] warhead on it, flies quite low. And the Iranians are assessed to have thousands, if not tens of [6:51] thousands of these. And they're very mobile. You put them on launchers on the back of a truck, [6:54] and the truck goes out, and you can launch them anywhere. All it takes is, in singletons, [6:59] as a single aircraft. [7:00] That's quite an easy target to take out. But if you put 20 up there, [7:03] the strategy from the Iranians will be just to overwhelm the type of air defense capability [7:09] that the U.S. has. And I think that's the problem. It goes back to those cost-benefit ratios. If the [7:14] Iranians start putting up a lot of these and basically reduce the missile salvos and the [7:21] ability for the U.S. to defend against that, all it takes is for one to get through slightly [7:25] damaged and amphibious ship. And then you've got strategic failure. [7:30] And that's the risk that isn't being taken into account when Donald Trump says he can easily take [7:35] the straight and full news. [7:35] OK, Mikey, thank you very much for that. Mikey Kay, post of the security brief. [7:39] Well, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, a hundred experts in international law [7:45] have warned of serious violations by the U.S., Israel, and Iran. They say the initial attack [7:50] was a clear breach of the U.N. charter. And they also highlight what they've called the alarming [7:55] language used by U.S. officials, including President Trump. The White House responded by [8:00] saying Ukraine is making the region safer, whilst Tehran have previously said they have every [8:07] legitimate right to defend themselves. Well, speaking to my colleague, Anna Foster, Tom [8:12] Fletcher, the U.N.'s humanitarian chief, set out just how concerning the situation is. [8:16] Concerning is a very diplomatic way of putting that. I mean, this is infuriating. We're dealing [8:21] with the intended and the unintended consequences of this reckless conflict. And I think what [8:27] everyone is observing now is that war is not a television game show. It's not [8:31] a piece making is not a real estate deal and the world is not a casino. And these actions have [8:36] real consequences. We're out there right now. I'm in Damascus dealing with the huge unintended [8:42] consequences of this conflict. When do you think we got to a point at which civilian lives were [8:49] talked about in such a such a throwaway way as they seem to be now? Yeah, I prefer the episode [8:56] when we were talking about peace, to be honest. This is this has been a gradual and then very [9:01] sudden deterioration in the way that we talk about. [9:03] Protection of civilians, the way that we talk about international humanitarian law. [9:07] You know, this stuff isn't negotiable. You don't hit civilian infrastructure. That includes [9:12] hospitals across Beirut and across Lebanon. I met huge numbers of medics whose ambulances [9:18] are being hit at the moment. You don't hit schools. You don't hit energy sources. You [9:23] don't hit bridges. Those are war crimes. That is absolutely clear in international law. But [9:28] somewhere along the way, we seem to have thrown that all aside and we've chosen [9:33] solidarity, indifference, game show gambling over solidarity and humanity.