US blockade threat on Iran risks wider global disruption, analyst warns

[0:00] Okay, let's discuss some of these latest developments with Mehran Lamrava, [0:04] Professor of Government at Georgetown University here in Qatar. [0:08] He's also the Director of Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. [0:13] He joins us, as I said, live here from Doha. [0:15] Good to have you on the program. [0:16] It's not exactly clear how the U.S. Navy plans to enforce this blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. [0:24] Will they stop and check ships? [0:26] Will they try to shut traffic down altogether? [0:28] Your thoughts when you heard the U.S. president announce this plan? [0:34] Well, the president has once again engaged in extremist rhetoric. [0:40] And as you just mentioned, the devil is in the details. [0:43] Can they actually enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in order to undo another blockade that they're worried about? [0:53] And so, although technically it can be done, but of course, you know, we will have to wait and see how the Iranians would react. [1:04] Ultimately, this really leads to a disruption of flow of any traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. [1:13] And that would be extremely costly for all parties involved, particularly those not involved in the war, the GCC states, for example. [1:24] As you say, essentially, we're going from one blockade to two blockades. [1:28] Now, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard says it will respond strongly to this move by the U.S. [1:35] What do you think that will entail in practice? [1:38] Well, we have seen that the Revolutionary Guards have not hesitated to hit energy supplies or energy facilities here in the Persian Gulf states. [1:54] And so this is one thing they can do. [1:56] There's also the Babel Mandap Strait and what the Houthis might do. [2:03] What we saw, Marlene, in this conflict is that the Iranians have consistently surprised us. [2:12] We thought the axis of resistance was dead. [2:15] It turned out that it wasn't. [2:17] We thought that the Iranians would buckle early on. [2:22] They didn't. [2:22] We didn't realize the Iranians would hit GCC states. [2:27] They did. [2:27] So we might still be in for a surprise insofar as Iran is concerned. [2:33] What about the use of mines, fast attack boats and such and possibly even the help of allies like China and Russia to navigate this? [2:46] Well, the use of mines is extremely low tech. [2:51] And apparently Iran has already done so and it has lost track of those mines, [2:57] which adds to the hazardous journey through the Strait of Hormuz these days. [3:02] But I think there are some indications that China and Russia are giving Iran intelligence information, [3:12] but not necessarily supplies. [3:14] But if this war drags on and if this war continues to polarize regional as well as global politics, [3:23] I think there's no telling how countries like Russia, China and others might react. [3:29] China, of course, one of the major buyers of Iranian oil. [3:34] It's unlikely to just accept this and just sit back, is it? [3:38] Absolutely. [3:41] And as you mentioned, this blockade by the United States, if it is to happen, would hurt China and China's economy as much as it would hurt Iran. [3:55] And it would take some time for China to find alternative suppliers. [4:00] I mean, technically, they can do so, but if the Strait is closed and Saudi, Kuwaiti and Qatari ships and Emirati ships are not going through it, [4:12] then, of course, this will be extremely detrimental to the Chinese who are not likely to kind of tolerate this in the long run. [4:23] Mehran, what is your sense of where we go from here? [4:26] Is there any prospect of a return to talks? How much appetite is there, do you think, on either side? [4:33] I don't think either side wants to see an escalation of the conflict. [4:38] But President Trump, in some ways, is a victim of two things. [4:43] First, his own extremist rhetoric. [4:45] He likes the term obliterate and he likes to obliterate this and that. [4:50] And then the other is the kind of maverick nature or expansionist nature of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's policies. [5:01] So if, you know, both sides look for off ramps, but if Trump can hold his rhetoric in check and can hold Netanyahu in check, [5:11] we saw significant progress in Islamabad except on one or two key sticky issues. [5:20] And there is a basis for negotiations there if the two sides are willing to go back to the negotiating table. [5:28] Mehran, always good to get your thoughts. [5:30] Mehran Lamrava, Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar. [5:35] Mehran Lamrava, Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar.