US blockade of Hormuz would be a ‘strategic mistake’, warns former Iranian nuclear negotiator

[0:00] Syed Hossein Moussavien is a former Iranian nuclear negotiator. [0:04] He joins us from New Jersey. [0:05] Welcome to the programme. [0:07] So let me ask you this, because we are digesting this latest escalation by Donald Trump. [0:13] He's suggesting moving Navy vessels into the Strait of Hormuz to counter the Iranian blockade with a blockade of its own. [0:20] I mean, firstly, let me ask you whether Iran has created this friction, [0:25] because by showing the world that Iran can selectively allow transit through the Strait, [0:31] haven't you essentially handed President Trump this justification for a total U.S. blockade? [0:37] I mean, if you can manage the Strait, why shouldn't the U.S. Navy take that power away from Iran permanently? [0:43] I really don't believe the U.S. would be able to finally blockade the Strait totally. [0:53] I think thinking about Strait of Hormuz in a military way, by military operation, [1:03] is exactly the same strategic mistake which the U.S. made in 2025 and 2026. [1:13] And in both wars, the U.S. assumption failed to bring a total collapse to Iran. [1:18] And I believe if he is going to try for the third time the same mistake for Strait of Hormuz, [1:27] after one or two, three weeks, the U.S. president would understand this is not possible. [1:33] That's why I think the channel for diplomacy now is already opened in Islamabad at a very high level. [1:42] This was, of course, nobody expected a big deal between Iran and the U.S. after 40 days of devastating war. [1:52] Nevertheless, it was high level in negotiation, direct negotiations, 24 hours they negotiated. [2:01] And they, I think, can continue to resolve the two remaining issues, [2:06] which is Strait of Hormuz and nuclear enrichment. [2:10] I believe there is a solution for both. [2:13] Mr. Massavian, you may believe that there is a solution for both. [2:18] I appreciate that optimism. [2:20] But we are hearing from Iran's IRGC taking Trump's threat very seriously indeed. [2:25] They are saying that military vessels approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a ceasefire violation. [2:33] I mean, Iran has framed the country's control of the straits as a system of exercising national sovereignty. [2:43] It sounds like that tactic is unraveling, is backfired. [2:48] First of all, we need to understand the Strait of Hormuz was open for 47 years and Iran never closed. [2:58] Now, second, even Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz after the 2025 war. [3:05] The U.S. attacked Iran, but Iran did not close. [3:09] But this time, if Iran has implemented some limitations on a Strait of Hormuz is just because the U.S. again attacked Iran in April 2026, [3:26] which Iran considered an existential war, existential threat. [3:31] That's why Iran decided to play with every cards they have. [3:35] Strait of Hormuz was one issue. [3:38] And you have seen the Iranian allies in the region from al-Hashid al-Shaabi in Iraq, Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon. [3:47] It was because in the second war, Iran really felt this is a decision by the U.S. and Israel to bring a total collapse to Iran. [4:00] It was one existential threat. [4:02] That's why Iran decided to go for a Strait of Hormuz. [4:06] It was not Iranian decision. [4:09] It was not Iranian intention. [4:11] I think the cause of what the crisis we are now in is because of the second war. [4:19] Nevertheless, that's why I am insisting there is possibility for diplomacy. [4:26] War has not resolved the previous problem like nuclear and is not going to solve nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issue. [4:35] I understand that this problem may have been at the Americans' own making and the Strait of Hormuz wasn't closed until this war started. [4:44] But it is the international community, your allies as well as your enemies, that collectively suffer. [4:50] It's only to be expected that the world's superpower that has been entrusted with securing global trade would now want to see this chokehold lifted. [5:01] First of all, there is two realities. [5:06] One is the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is international waterway. [5:12] You are right. [5:13] This is internationally recognized as a waterway. [5:17] Second, this Strait is in water territorial of Iran and Oman. [5:25] Iran and Oman in 1974, they have signed an agreement that these two countries would manage this Strait [5:33] because this is in the water territory of these two countries. [5:36] And each country, by international law, has the authority 12 miles from its water borders. [5:48] Therefore, the Strait of Hormuz is about 21 miles and 12 miles Iran has, 12 miles Oman has. [5:57] That's why this is a mixture of Iranian sovereignty over its own water territorial and international rules and regulations, [6:07] because this is international waterway. [6:10] This is, I think, there is two issues. [6:14] It is not just one issue. [6:16] That's why we need to find a solution, a sustainable peace. [6:21] Within a sustainable peace, then Iran also go for a completely open and sustainable solution for a Strait of Hormuz. [6:33] Otherwise, if you are going to expect, the U.S. would put sanctions, pressure, existential threat, war attacking Iran, [6:41] and Iran would let a Strait of Hormuz to be opened, all weapons coming from the Strait of Hormuz to be used against Iran, [6:51] I think this is not going to happen. [6:53] Right, right, right. [6:54] When you say open, stable situation in the Strait of Hormuz, [6:58] I assume you mean a return to the free flow of global trade through that strait. [7:04] But what you're suggesting is there need to be cast-iron guarantees from the U.S. and indeed Israel that Iran will not be attacked, [7:12] that its sovereignty will not be undermined. [7:14] Syed Hossein Mousavian, former Iranian nuclear negotiator, [7:17] pleasure having you on the program. [7:18] Thank you. [7:20] Thank you very much. [7:21] Thank you.