US and Iran's two-week ceasefire due to expire on Wednesday — BBC News

[0:00] President Trump has said the U.S. will not lift its blockade on Iranian ports until a deal has [0:06] been reached with Tehran. It comes at the end of the two-week ceasefire looms with no sign of an [0:12] extension. Iran's chief negotiators also cast fresh doubt on a second round of peace talk [0:18] stating Tehran was prepared to show new cards on the battlefield. The U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, [0:25] who's due to lead the American team in Pakistan, is said to be preparing to leave Washington soon. [0:31] And a few hours ago, Donald Trump posted this on social media. Operation Midnight Hammer was a [0:36] complete and total obliteration of the nuclear dust sites in Iran, therefore digging it out will be [0:41] a long and difficult process. Our North America correspondent David Willis reports. It's being [0:48] reported here that the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is due to leave the country later today, [0:54] Tuesday. For those peace talks in the Pakistani capital is Lamabad. It was thought at one stage [1:03] that he would be en route by now. And the fact that he isn't and has spent the night in Washington, [1:10] D.C. can perhaps be attributed to the fact that there is uncertainty over whether the Iranian delegation [1:17] is going to be present at those talks. Iran has accused the United States of violations of the [1:27] terms of the ceasefire agreement, in particular by blockading Iranian ports. And that is something [1:35] that caused the chief negotiator on Iran's part to take to social media last night to say that [1:43] President Trump was, in his words, seeking to turn the negotiating table into a table of surrender. [1:51] Iran doesn't negotiate under the shadow of threats, that social media post concluded. [1:59] Lifting that U.S. blockade on Iranian ports could prompt the Iranian delegation to return to [2:08] negotiations in Islamabad. But in a social media post of his own, Donald Trump said that the blockade [2:17] would remain in place, as he put it, until a firm deal, a long-lasting deal, was reached with Iran. [2:26] Mr. Trump, of course, is eager for a deal. He doesn't want to see another rise in oil prices. And he wants [2:34] to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened. That has virtually ground to a standstill once again. [2:42] The U.S. also wants Tehran to hand over its enriched uranium supplies. And that is something [2:50] that Tehran has said is non-negotiable. So it does seem that the maximum that Iran is willing to give [2:59] is less than the minimum the U.S. is demanding. All this, and still uncertainty, surrounding a next stage [3:09] of peace talks, with the clock ticking down to the end of that ceasefire agreement. [3:16] David Willis, the BBC's Chief International Correspondent, Lise Doucette, has been telling me about [3:20] the Iranian position on entering negotiations. She's reporting from Tehran on condition none of her material [3:26] is used on the BBC's Persian service. These restrictions apply to all international media [3:31] organizations operating in Iran. In public, Iranian officials say that so far, and they emphasize so [3:38] far, so far they haven't made a decision as to whether to go to Islamabad. In private, officials tell [3:44] us that they do want to continue the negotiating track, but only under the right conditions and at [3:51] the right time, even before the incident in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, where for the first time [3:56] in this crisis, the U.S. Navy fired on, boarded and seized an Iranian vessel. Iran was saying that it [4:04] didn't want to resume talks while the U.S. naval blockade was still in force. It's also concerned [4:10] about what was yesterday, another stream of social media posts and interviews by President Trump, [4:16] where he veers from military threats against Iran and then declaring that a deal can be done [4:23] in a day. Iran feels that President Trump is trying to exert even more pressure. And you saw that in [4:30] posts, both by the lead negotiator, Mahmoud Baghar Ghalibov, and the president of Iran, Masoud [4:36] Peshikian, saying that they wanted to negotiate in a calm environment, but that they wouldn't surrender [4:42] to threats. I mean, you have to bear in mind that President Trump pulled out of the last nuclear record [4:47] in his first term. The last two rounds of talks before this war with the United States were [4:55] shattered by the onset of war. So Iran wants to be careful. There's a deep, deep well of [5:02] distrust, which goes back 47 years between these two countries. But Iran also has some tough decisions [5:09] to make. It's under pressure from hardliners here. They don't want to make many compromises, [5:13] and yet compromises will be needed if there is a deal to be done. So there are pressures [5:19] from all sides. [5:20] Liz, President Trump says the naval blockade by the U.S. of the Strait of Hormuz is costing [5:26] around $500 million a day. He says that's destroying Iran. Do you get a sense of that [5:32] economic pain there? [5:33] There was economic pain in Iran even before this war. When we came in February, it was staggering to [5:42] see that inflation here was running at 60 percent. People are living under those sanctions that make [5:48] everyday tasks like a bank account, like travel, doing ordinary daily things are impossible here [5:54] because you're strangled in this web of international sanctions. And now when we go to the markets, [6:01] the prices are even higher. There's one economist said inflation was now around 72 percent. We went to a [6:07] pharmacy where you could see on the worried expressions of people there. The prices are [6:12] higher. Some of the drugs they rely on, including insulin, are hard to find. And if they are hard to [6:18] find, if you can find them, they're still expensive. And some imported brands aren't entering again [6:25] because of the sanctions. Iranians want those sanctions to be lifted. The negotiators know that. [6:31] But there are Iranians who say to us, those who don't support the government, who say we don't want a [6:35] deal because we don't want to keep this order in place. And yet someone at a fruit and vegetable [6:42] shop said to us, as we talked about the higher prices, he said, I don't want to I don't want there [6:46] to be a deal because I want to make to inflict even greater pain on the United States. So it's a little [6:53] reminder of the churn of emotions and the different directions in which this country is pulling now. [6:59] And Liz, you touched on tensions, even splits in the Iranian leadership. Tell us a little more about [7:06] what you know about what's going on that we can't see. [7:12] Well, you can see it even if you are even if you are here. I think it would be too strong a word to [7:17] say splits. We have seen the disagreements, if you like, emerging in the what what is said on different [7:26] media aligned to, for example, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful forces [7:31] who, by all accounts, are the ones who are literally calling the shots in this war. [7:37] But at the very top, the new the new leadership, which is formed after those multiple high level [7:43] assassinations during those weeks of war, they have some very clear ideas about where Iran sits, [7:50] how Iran sees the future of its nuclear program, what the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, [7:55] which Iran doesn't want to give up. It now sees it not just as leverage in these negotiations, [8:01] but long term leverage, also an economic lifeline to get out of the stranglehold of sanctions. [8:07] So decisions here have always been made by consensus. And President Trump likes to say he's found [8:14] the decision maker. That's not the system in Iran. They have their own sorting to do, [8:20] and they have this their own very tough decisions to make about how much they want to do a deal. [8:25] And there isn't there is a view that if they see a bad deal on the table, they'll take a bad war instead. [8:32] That's Lise Doucette, who's in Tehran. Let's take you to the city where talks, if they happen, [8:37] will be taking place, Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Preparations there still in place for possible talks. [8:44] We've been hearing about security checkpoints and posters saying Islamabad talks lining the streets. [8:49] Let's hear some more from our correspondent who's there in Islamabad, Caroline Davies. Caroline, [8:54] how confident is Pakistan that these talks are actually going to happen? [8:57] I think that is obviously the really big question, is whether or not we will see these delegations arriving [9:04] here in Pakistan for these talks. Behind the scenes, we haven't had a huge amount of communication [9:09] from the Pakistan authorities here about one way or another. I think quite often, [9:13] they're trying to let the two sides, both Tehran and Washington, be the ones that lead this [9:17] conversation at the moment. They've been doing, obviously, a lot of intermediary work. We know [9:22] that that back channel has been operated by Pakistan for several weeks, and we imagine that it's still [9:27] ongoing at the moment. But we've been getting a lot of mixed messages, as we've heard from both [9:31] Lise and Tehran, and of course, as we've also been hearing out of Washington about whether or not [9:35] these talks are going ahead from the Iranian side, saying that they have no plans to attend these [9:40] negotiations in these discussions. In particular, the parliamentary speaker, Galabaugh, saying that [9:45] they would not do so under threat. And we actually got something similar this morning from, let me [9:49] just read you the post from the Iranian ambassador here to Pakistan, who says, [9:54] it's a truth university acknowledged that a single country in possession of a large civilization [9:58] will not negotiate under threat and force. So again, that same message that's coming out from Iran, [10:03] saying that they will not come to the negotiation table, as long as these measures they think are in [10:08] place that are putting them under threats. From President Trump's side, he has been talking about [10:14] the fact that he doesn't feel any pressure to try to find a deal, but that also he thinks that a deal [10:18] will be done. The big question, of course, is will we see people come to the table here in Islamabad? [10:24] Pakistan has been ready, has been ready for several days. We've seen these sorts of measures in place. [10:28] A large amount of the city is still essentially in lockdown here, just waiting for that further news. [10:34] We also understand that we've seen some US military aircraft coming in. While, of course, the key [10:40] principles are not coming in for the delegations, we believe that that will be the sort of security [10:43] measures that will be being put in place potentially before these talks happen. So lots of things going [10:48] on behind the scenes here in Islamabad. But the big question is, are we going to have both sides [10:53] coming back to the table and sitting around it again? That is still uncertain. [10:58] Caroline, briefly, if you will, why Pakistan? Why has Pakistan chosen to put itself [11:03] firmly at the centre of this diplomatic process? Well, it's in an interesting position between [11:10] the two countries, and it's walking that tightrope at the moment. For Iran's side, [11:15] it's obviously a neighbour with Iran. It shares a 900-kilometre or so border. They refer to each [11:19] other as brotherly nations. There's a historic relationship there. And from the American side, [11:25] that seems to be a more personal dynamic, particularly at the moment. President Trump seems to have a good [11:29] relationship with the head of Pakistan's military, Field Marshal Assam Manir, regularly referring to him as his [11:34] favourite Field Marshal. And so it seems like Pakistan is able to, at the moment, keep that balance [11:40] and be the party that is passing messages back and forth, if not also doing some form of intermediary [11:44] work as well, making sure that trying to get both sides to the table and keep momentum going behind [11:49] these talks. So far, both sides have been praising of Pakistan's role as well. They seem to have been able to [11:55] retain that trust on both sides. But the big question is, Pakistan is not in a position to [12:01] strong arm either side to get to the negotiating table. It will be down to whether both sides think [12:06] that they feel that there is something on the table that they can get out of this discussion, [12:09] out of this negotiation. So still a lot of anticipation, a lot of questions, a lot of uncertainty [12:15] about whether these talks are going to take place. Thanks very much, Caroline Davies. In Islamabad, [12:21] where those talks will take place if they indeed happen. We'll be talking to our correspondents [12:27] in Islamabad and Tehran, of course, throughout the forthcoming hours. Meanwhile, Chinese President [12:32] Xi Jinping has called for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time [12:36] since the closure of the vital energy passageway. Speaking by phone to the Saudi Crown Prince, [12:41] Mohammed bin Salman, President Xi said, [12:43] the Strait of Hormuz should remain open for normal passage which aligns with the common interest [12:49] of countries in the region and the international community.