Trump's Truth Social post on Israel-Lebanon talks deepens division in Beirut: Analysis

[0:00] US President Donald Trump says talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to take place on Thursday [0:04] in a post on Truth Social. Trump wrote, trying to get a little breathing room between Israel [0:11] and Lebanon. It's been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will [0:19] happen tomorrow. He did not specify who would be talking part. The announcement follows rare [0:25] direct talks between Lebanon and Israel earlier in the week in Washington, the first time in more [0:30] than three decades. Those discussions focused on efforts to address Hezbollah's role in the conflict. [0:38] Now, Mohamed El-Masri is a political analyst and professor of media studies at the Doha Institute [0:43] for Graduate Studies. He joins me live here in the studio. Once again, I'm not going to get you to [0:49] interpret what Donald Trump actually means, but there's a lot of surprise in Lebanon that these [0:54] two leaders might actually be speaking. It doesn't specify which particular leaders, but it's [1:01] unlikely that that would happen given the circumstances, right? Well, I mean, the context [1:06] is really important here. Israel has been decimating Lebanon. They have every intention, [1:14] if we're to believe their words and also look at their actions, of taking over that area south of the [1:21] Latani River. That's a pretty significant chunk, 10 to 14 percent of Lebanese territory. They've [1:27] killed a couple thousand people, displaced more than a million, as you all have been reporting. [1:32] Associated Press is now reporting that they've been using the same policy that they were using in Gaza, [1:36] this Where's Daddy program, which is a very disturbing title, but they wait for Hezbollah members to come [1:42] home at night and then they strike them while they are sleeping with their families. They kill their [1:46] wives, their children, extended family, and so on and so forth. In that context, Israel is basically [1:52] asking the Lebanese leadership to surrender. And this, I don't think, is going to go over very well [1:59] with the Lebanese people. And I also don't think it's going to lead to any sort of a permanent [2:04] resolution or peace. It, by all accounts, would be simply a temporary ceasefire. And even [2:11] ceasefires that are supposed to be lasting ceasefires, Israel violates. So I think we're still [2:17] in a very tenuous situation. [2:18] I mean, the best case scenario that we can hope for, given what you've just said then, [2:22] is a ceasefire that lasts as long as the Iran ceasefire does. And then Israel just simply waiting [2:29] and seeing what happens with the Iranian ceasefire before they decide what they're going to do next? [2:34] I think Israel's already decided what it's going to do in terms of Lebanon. I mean, to start with, [2:39] I mean, at a minimum, they want to take over all of that land south of the Latani River. They're [2:44] calling it a security zone or a buffer zone. But this is part of the greater Israel project. I mean, [2:49] it's very clear. I mean, all you have to do is listen to the Israeli leaders. They want to expand [2:53] their borders. And that is a start. So I think their intentions are clear. And I don't think any of [2:58] it is good news for the Lebanese people, even those Lebanese who are opposed to Hezbollah. And [3:03] certainly there are Lebanese who are opposed to Hezbollah. [3:06] Let's bring in Zeyna Khadr here. She's live for us in Beirut. Zeyna, [3:10] has this come as a surprise to the Lebanese people? I mean, and never mind Lebanese people, [3:16] what about the Lebanese political establishment? [3:18] A very controversial tweet. In fact, an official source has told me that [3:26] we don't have any information. That source did not confirm or deny the words used was, [3:33] we don't have information. So Trump's tweet talking about leaders talking to each other, [3:39] communicating possibly a phone conversation for the first time in 34 years. This is a very, [3:45] very divisive issue in Lebanon. The very fact that the Lebanese government even decided to open [3:52] talks with Israel, direct talks, face-to-face talks, especially at a time when Israel is continuing to [3:59] attack the country. Now, he also mentions, you know, giving Lebanon and Israel breathing space. [4:06] Could that suggest a ceasefire, that a ceasefire will be announced? We know that the United States [4:12] has been pushing for a ceasefire on the Lebanon front for more than one reason. It wants to push [4:18] forward the Lebanon-Israel track. It wants this track to succeed simply because it wants to ensure [4:25] that the Lebanon-Iran fronts are separated. They are de-linked. They want to make sure that Hezbollah's [4:31] influence is weakened over Lebanon, that Iran's influence over Lebanon is weakened. Israel, you [4:38] know, the Israeli ambassador, the words he used yesterday, us, we, together, after those talks [4:44] were held, almost really describing the Lebanese government as a party. And that really stirred a [4:52] lot of controversy in the country. While, yes, there are people in Lebanon who are ready for peace, [4:57] people in Lebanon who just want these wars to end and the state to reclaim sovereignty. But there are [5:02] others who do not trust Israel, who believe that Israel's intentions, it will never leave southern [5:08] Lebanon. It will continue to stay there, create a buffer zone, not allow people to return. And they [5:12] believe the Lebanese government is giving free concessions and not really doesn't have enough [5:16] leverage to impose its conditions on Israel. So the Lebanese official source telling me no [5:23] information about the possibility of talks, even the possibility of a second round of meeting between [5:28] Israel and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington. But of course, this could change in the coming hours. [5:34] Zayna, stay there, because I want to go back to Mohammed al-Masri, who's in the studio for us at the [5:39] moment. Zayna there was talking about a, you know, the Israelis wanting a security zone, a buffer zone. [5:45] But at what point does a buffer zone, a security zone become just a land grab? Because we've seen this in [5:51] Gaza before as well. We've also seen it in Syria in the Golan Heights. [5:55] The answer is as soon as possible. That is the Israeli intention. It's clear. I think, I don't [6:00] think there's enough appreciation for this idea of greater Israel and how mainstream it is in Israeli [6:06] society, and especially among the political leaders. You even have opposition leader like [6:11] Yair Lapid, who is more centrist. He's not a, he's not a right winger. He's certainly not on the [6:16] quote-unquote far right. He just said three weeks ago that Israel's borders are based on the Bible. [6:22] That includes not just the south of the Latani River, but it includes all of Lebanon and other [6:28] territories and countries in the region. So I think this is very serious. One of the things that I think [6:34] is interesting and that is perhaps not getting enough play is that Israel is calling on the Lebanese [6:40] state to disarm Hezbollah. This is something, first of all, that Israel itself is not able to do. [6:47] It's very complicated. And let's not forget that Israel has worked with the United States [6:52] systematically over the course of many years to ensure that the Lebanese state is weak, that it is [6:57] not weaponized. This is to give Israel its quote-unquote qualitative military edge, which the U.S. and [7:05] Israel are both committed to. So if the Lebanese state is weak, if the Lebanese military is weak, [7:10] how can they do something that Israel itself is not able to do? Well, let's go back to Zayna now, [7:15] who's live for us in Beirut. Zayna, this idea of the Israelis having a security zone, a buffer zone, [7:22] we normally see the Israelis really push through into different territories just before a ceasefire [7:28] announcement is made in order to cement the territory that they've already got. Do you think [7:32] that the Lebanese are fearful that that's actually what's happening right now? Well, [7:41] especially if you talk to people who live in those areas, people from southern Lebanon, [7:46] they don't trust Israel. This is not the first confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. [7:52] There have been numerous wars in the past decades, and they don't trust their intentions. And even [7:58] after that ceasefire in late 2024, Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanese territory. It did not. [8:05] It created and established five hilltop positions within Lebanese territory along the border. [8:11] And the argument by Hezbollah is the Lebanese government was not able to get even a goodwill [8:18] gesture on the part of the Israeli government to withdraw from at least one of those positions to, [8:23] you know, to make people feel that, yes, one day they will return. There were [8:27] many attempts to rebuild in the south of the country. Excavators, any attempt to rebuild came [8:36] under attack. So people here feel that they will not be able to return to their homes. Before this [8:41] latest conflict, we have to remember tens of thousands, 90,000 people did not return to their [8:46] homes in those frontline villages. Ayta Shaab, Chiyam, Farkila, Adesi, and I can, you know, [8:52] name them all. People never returned. And this new conflict, this new confrontation displaced even [8:58] more people. And we are seeing the Israeli government or the Israeli military push ahead with that ground [9:04] invasion. But again, taking territory in the south of the country is not going to disarm Hezbollah. [9:09] They need a partner on the ground. And that's why the U.S. and Israel are engaging with the state. [9:15] The biggest question is, can the state do this without risking internal strife? The army commander [9:21] is coming under a lot of criticism by those, you know, in the anti-Hezbollah camp because he's refusing [9:27] to take a step against Hezbollah. So the situation is very delicate. The internal tensions in this country [9:36] are dangerous. So they're live for us in Beirut. Thank you.