Trump’s “Project Freedom”: Peace move or escalation?

[0:00] So then, in the past few minutes, US President Donald Trump has declared a new naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz. [0:06] He says it's to escort stranded ships, calling it a humanitarian gesture. [0:11] He posted on Truth Social and said, [0:15] I am fully aware that my representatives are having very positive discussions with the country of Iran [0:21] and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. [0:25] This ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong. [0:33] They are victims of circumstance. [0:36] This is a humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States. [0:41] Project Freedom will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. [0:46] OK, let's head to Washington and speak to Mike Hanna. [0:48] So, Mike, let's tell us more about what Donald Trump has had to say in this Truth Social post. [0:54] Well, you explained most of it in that report that you read out there. [0:59] But yes, he does appear to be suggesting in some way the US Navy to escort ships that have been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz [1:09] because, A, of the ongoing US blockade and, B, because of actions by the Iranians. [1:15] He says this is a humanitarian position. [1:18] He says as well that many of these ships have no connection whatsoever with any of the parties to this conflict. [1:24] He's labelled it Project Freedom. [1:28] How it's going to work? [1:29] Well, that's another matter entirely. [1:31] How many ships need to be escorted out? [1:33] That is also another matter. [1:35] But of most interest, perhaps, in that Truth Social posting is his phrase about very positive discussions with Iran. [1:43] His representatives are having. [1:45] Now, it's not clear whether these are discussions about this plan, this Project Freedom, [1:49] or there are discussions on a wider issue. [1:53] But this is something that we will have to find out about. [1:56] It's something that perhaps President Trump will expand on in later posts. [2:01] But at present, what we see is the US Navy offering to escort stranded ships out the Strait of Hormuz. [2:08] And, Mike, also within the post that the US President put out, he said, [2:14] I'm fully aware that my representative is having very positive discussions with the country of Iran. [2:19] These discussions could lead to something very positive for all. [2:22] And, of course, we have, you know, these proposals and counter-proposals going both ways. [2:27] So, you know, he's sounding optimistic, but we've heard that before. [2:31] Yes, indeed. [2:33] But the fact that he added it into this particular Truth Social posting, [2:38] speaking about working together in some way or working with the knowledge of the Iranians [2:44] in terms of moving out these stranded vessels, if that is indeed what he's referring to. [2:49] But as I said, it's unclear whether he's talking about the very positive discussions [2:54] his representatives are having with Iran, [2:57] is whether it is about this specific freeing of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, [3:03] allowing ships to escort out, or whether he's talking about wider issues. [3:08] This is a key point. [3:09] Perhaps he is talking or his representatives are talking to Iran [3:14] to exercise the freedom of these ships for humanitarian reasons. [3:19] But also it may be a way around a possible ramp for President Trump to get off [3:26] in terms of his insistence that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must continue. [3:32] And this is one of the massive stumbling points [3:34] in attempting to resuscitate any form of dialogue with Iran. [3:38] Indeed. All right, Mike, thanks for that. [3:39] Mike Hanna there in Washington, D.C. [3:41] Well, let's unpack this a little bit further. [3:43] We've got a retired U.S. General Mark Kimmett here in the studio, [3:45] also former Assistant Secretary of State for Political and Military Affairs. [3:48] Welcome back, General Kimmett. [3:51] Project Freedom, as Donald Trump names it. [3:54] Thoughts on this and how it might work? [3:56] Well, certainly it's come as a surprise to everyone. [3:59] And it could be very, very positive news. [4:02] The world needs this type of humanitarian assistance, [4:07] primarily to get the fertilizer out of the Gulf [4:10] that's been sitting there for quite some time, [4:12] because it is planting season. [4:14] Candidly, I see three problems. [4:16] Number one, we have not heard a response from the Iranians yet, [4:21] and there have been significant threats [4:23] from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy [4:25] that they're going to stop any kind of movements. [4:29] Number two... [4:30] To be fair, it is very early days at this point in time, [4:32] so we're still waiting for the Iranian response, right? [4:34] Yeah, it is. [4:35] Number two, we still have a significant number of mines in the water. [4:38] There's dangerous waters based on the fact [4:41] that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy [4:43] had dropped them off. [4:45] So I certainly hope that the United States, [4:48] and I fully expect that the United States Navy [4:50] has a plan for this. [4:52] And number three, in many ways, [4:54] those ships are still shackled [4:56] by the requirements of their insurance companies. [4:58] So will the insurance companies allow those ships [5:01] to go through, given the potential for danger here? [5:04] So, look, this is good news. [5:06] Let's hope, in fact, [5:07] it has been coordinated with the Iranians, [5:10] that the Iranians can actually pilot these ships [5:12] through minefields to get them out. [5:17] Let's hope for the best to prepare for the worst. [5:19] Indeed. [5:20] I think at this point, [5:21] it's worth having a look at what kind of vessels [5:24] we're talking about. [5:25] I mean, there's hundreds of vessels stuck in there, [5:26] hundreds and hundreds of vessels, [5:28] carrying all sorts of cargo, [5:29] from oil and gas to fertilizer, as you put it. [5:32] That's very critical. [5:34] But all manner of ships are there, [5:37] including many, many hundreds of seafarers, too. [5:41] Yeah, that's exactly right. [5:42] And as the president said in his Truth Social, [5:45] that this is a humanitarian exercise. [5:47] So I would suspect that the U.S. Navy [5:49] has already gone through the list of ships [5:52] and have put priorities on those [5:54] that are most needed by other countries. [5:56] Who do you think is involved in this as well? [5:59] Because Donald Trump says, and I quote, [6:02] this is a humanitarian gesture [6:04] on behalf of the United States, [6:06] the Middle East, and in particular, Iran. [6:09] Does that suggest that Iran could be involved [6:12] in this as well? [6:13] That they might already have given [6:14] their agreement to this? [6:16] I think not only is it important [6:18] that they're involved, [6:19] but as I said, I think in many ways, [6:21] they will have to pilot the ships, [6:24] basically lead the ships [6:25] through the minefields that they have set. [6:27] I don't think the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy [6:30] is so unprofessional [6:32] as if they had just dropped the mines [6:35] without any kind of mine tracking [6:37] about where they are. [6:39] And what about this idea [6:40] that our correspondent Mike Hanna [6:41] was talking about, [6:42] that this could be, [6:43] we don't know yet, [6:44] still very early days, [6:45] but could be part of a broader agreement [6:47] that brings in potentially more positive news [6:52] because he says that we, [6:54] the, I'm fully aware [6:56] that my representatives [6:56] are having very positive discussions, [6:58] this is the US president, [6:59] very positive discussions [7:00] with the country of Iran [7:01] and that these discussions [7:02] could lead to something [7:03] very positive for all. [7:05] We've heard optimism [7:06] from Donald Trump before [7:08] on the situation in Iran many times, [7:11] but of late, [7:11] it hasn't been so optimistic, has it? [7:14] But that is. [7:16] Well, let's see what happens. [7:17] I mean, the fact is [7:17] that the Iranians have complained [7:19] repeatedly about the trust deficit [7:22] between the two sides. [7:24] Let's hope that this is an opportunity [7:26] to demonstrate that there can be trust. [7:28] Now, this may be a little bit [7:29] optimistic on my part, [7:31] in fact, perhaps fantastical, [7:33] but let's see how this works out [7:35] and if this is something [7:36] more than just a Twitter post. [7:39] And for Iran, for the IRGC, [7:41] what does it do to their leverage? [7:44] So if these vessels are escorted [7:46] successfully out of the strait [7:48] and back out to sea, [7:50] is it to Iran's disadvantage [7:53] to lose the leverage [7:55] of those ships being trapped? [7:57] Well, it seems to me [7:59] that the real issue would be [8:00] where does the IRGC fit [8:02] in this entire plan? [8:04] To many, they would suggest [8:06] that the IRGC has taken on [8:09] a far more significant role [8:10] in the ruling of the country [8:12] and the running of the country. [8:15] In many ways, [8:16] if they want to put a kinder face [8:20] on the IRGC, [8:21] this may be an opportunity [8:23] for them to do so. [8:24] We'll certainly know [8:25] in the next couple of days [8:27] that the IRGC, in fact, [8:29] tries to interfere with this [8:30] or tries to facilitate this. [8:33] Practically, how would it work? [8:36] I mean, what would we see? [8:37] We would see individual ships [8:38] going out one by one, [8:39] being escorted through. [8:41] What would be the process? [8:42] Do you think that could be in play? [8:44] I suspect that CENTCOM [8:47] and NAVCENT have pulled out [8:49] the old books [8:50] from the history of the tanker wars [8:52] from 1981 to 1988. [8:55] Well-known history. [8:56] This is a historical fact, [8:59] historical legacy [9:00] of how successful that was. [9:02] And so I think it's, [9:04] as you said, [9:05] there will be warships [9:07] in the front, [9:08] warships in the middle, [9:09] warships in the rear, [9:10] on the flanks [9:12] to protect against [9:14] any motorboat attacks. [9:17] So blockade running [9:19] is not something [9:20] new to the U.S. Navy. [9:22] No, but the blockade itself [9:23] would have to, [9:24] I presume the U.S. blockade itself, [9:25] would have to be dismantled [9:27] to enable this to happen, [9:28] would it? [9:28] It wouldn't be dismantled. [9:30] I think it would just [9:30] facilitate the passage. [9:32] I mean, imagine, for example, [9:34] in a highway [9:37] where you have [9:38] a number of police cars [9:41] setting up a barricade. [9:43] Well, of course, [9:43] when people start coming through, [9:45] they know how to pull aside. [9:46] This isn't, [9:47] this is dangerous. [9:49] This will take [9:50] a lot of coordination, [9:51] but I don't necessarily think [9:52] it's beyond the capability [9:54] of any modern Navy [9:56] for that matter. [9:57] And it will be [9:57] a real test of temperature, [9:59] won't it? [9:59] Because when it starts happening, [10:01] we'll then see [10:01] what response there will be [10:03] from the RGC. [10:04] Because it's so close [10:06] to the Iranian territory, [10:08] to the Iranian land, [10:09] that it would be [10:10] very straightforward [10:11] for the RGC [10:12] to make their attacks, right? [10:13] Well, technically, [10:14] it'll be in the [10:14] territorial waters of Oman, [10:17] but that's still close enough [10:18] to Iran for them [10:19] to be able to interfere. [10:20] Sure. [10:21] All right, General Kemet, [10:22] great to get your perspective [10:24] on this. [10:24] Appreciate that very much. [10:25] Thank you. [10:25] Speak to you later. [10:26] Okay, this is [10:30] how the Straight Off Hormuz [10:31] looks at the moment. [10:33] These are, [10:33] it's a live map [10:34] of the situation. [10:37] The red arrows [10:37] on this map [10:38] that comes [10:39] from marinetraffic.com. [10:41] It shows tankers [10:42] in this Strait. [10:43] You can see, [10:45] and outside as well, [10:46] of course, [10:46] those waiting outside [10:47] in the Gulf of Oman. [10:49] And everything [10:49] is stationary. [10:51] It'd be hard to see [10:51] that much movement [10:52] in just one look, [10:54] but I can assure you [10:55] that most of it [10:55] is stationary. [10:56] And the green [10:57] dots there, [10:59] the green arrows, [11:00] they show [11:01] cargo vessels. [11:02] So the red [11:04] is the oil [11:05] and gas tankers [11:05] and the green [11:06] are cargo vessels [11:07] very much stuck [11:09] in and around [11:10] the Strait, [11:11] but could soon, [11:13] on Monday, [11:14] start to be escorted [11:16] out of the Strait. [11:17] And they've been there [11:18] for many, [11:18] many weeks now, [11:19] very short on supplies, [11:21] hundreds and hundreds [11:21] of seafarers [11:22] stuck there, [11:24] but then could be [11:25] on their way out [11:26] on Monday. [11:28] Well, earlier, [11:29] Iran's Foreign Ministry [11:30] spokesman said [11:31] they have received [11:32] a US response [11:33] to the latest 14-point [11:34] proposal to end the war [11:35] and they're now [11:36] reviewing it. [11:37] State media [11:37] is reporting [11:38] the document [11:39] was received [11:39] through Pakistani [11:40] mediators. [11:42] Ismail al-Baghiai [11:43] says Iran's [11:44] nuclear programme [11:44] is not part [11:45] of the negotiations [11:46] at this stage. [11:47] He says Iran [11:48] is focusing [11:49] on an agreement [11:50] to end the war. [11:51] Outstanding issues [11:52] would be discussed [11:52] within 30 days. [11:55] Iran is also [11:56] signalling [11:56] a tougher stance [11:57] on the Strait. [11:59] Deputy Parliament [11:59] Speaker Ali Nighzad [12:01] said that Tehran [12:02] is drafting [12:03] a law [12:03] that would permanently [12:04] deny transit rights [12:05] to hostile countries. [12:10] Under the law [12:11] that will be adopted, [12:12] vessels belonging [12:12] to the Zionist regime [12:14] will under no circumstances [12:16] be allowed [12:16] to pass through [12:17] the Strait of Hormuz. [12:19] Hostile countries [12:20] headed by the United States [12:21] will also not have [12:22] the right of passage. [12:24] Other vessels [12:25] wishing to transit [12:26] will do so [12:27] under the law [12:27] we enact [12:28] and with authorisation [12:29] obtained [12:30] from the Commander-in-Chief [12:31] and placed [12:32] at the disposal [12:33] of our armed forces. [12:36] Let's hear now [12:37] from Al-Migdad Al-Gruhaid [12:38] who reports [12:39] from Tehran. [12:40] What Iranian officials [12:42] right now [12:43] are doing [12:44] is clarifying [12:45] this 14-point plan [12:47] and a new proposal [12:47] that proposed [12:49] to the United States [12:50] officials [12:50] and what is it about [12:52] and what it is not. [12:54] The foreign minister [12:54] spokesperson [12:55] Ismail Baqai [12:56] made it clear [12:57] that this 14-point plan [12:59] is about [13:00] ending the war [13:01] to reach an agreement [13:02] to ending the war [13:03] and postponing [13:04] the most critical issues [13:06] for the next time. [13:08] And he also made it clear [13:10] that this will [13:12] going to approach [13:14] in two phases. [13:15] The first phase [13:15] is to reach an agreement [13:17] and fully end this war [13:19] and the second approach [13:21] is within 30 days [13:23] discuss that agreement [13:25] and how to be implemented. [13:27] And he also addressed [13:29] the issue of guarantees [13:30] that he said [13:32] that Iran's guarantees [13:34] will come from Iran's [13:37] power and leverage [13:38] and this give us [13:39] a broader spectrum [13:40] about how [13:41] the Strait of Hormuz [13:43] is right now [13:45] being one of the main leverage [13:46] for the Iranians. [13:48] And also he ruled out [13:49] speculation about [13:50] that 30 days [13:52] is a deadline [13:53] because they speak about [13:57] we are not negotiate [13:58] under pressure, [14:00] we are not negotiate [14:01] under ultimatum. [14:04] So this is proposed here [14:06] as a sequence [14:07] of the phases [14:08] rather than a countdown. [14:10] And overall, [14:11] this proposal [14:12] is focused [14:14] about ending the war, [14:15] postponing [14:16] the most complex issues [14:17] to the future, [14:18] and also negotiate [14:21] from the position [14:22] of strength. [14:24] Al-Miqdad al-Ruhid, [14:25] Al-Jazeera, Tehran. [14:27] Okay, let's speak now [14:28] to Negar Murtazavi [14:29] who's a senior fellow [14:30] at the Center [14:31] for International Policy, [14:32] also the host [14:33] of the Iran podcast. [14:35] Welcome, Negar. [14:36] Thank you. [14:36] So we want to talk [14:37] about this latest news [14:38] that U.S. President Donald Trump [14:39] declaring a new naval mission [14:41] in the Strait of Hormuz. [14:42] He says it's to escort [14:43] stranded ships [14:44] and he calls it [14:45] a humanitarian gesture. [14:47] What do you make of it? [14:49] Well, I mean, [14:50] I don't know. [14:50] It's a war zone [14:51] and I think it's going [14:52] to be seen as that [14:54] from the Iranian side. [14:55] This is also going [14:57] to bring U.S. forces [14:58] and assets closer [15:00] to shooting range [15:02] of Iran potentially [15:03] if it's going [15:03] to be an escort. [15:04] So I don't know [15:05] if this is a threat. [15:07] Is this a negotiating [15:08] tactic, leverage [15:10] when that proposal [15:11] is proposed, [15:13] submitted by Iran [15:15] or is this really [15:16] the plan of the president? [15:17] I mean, we know [15:17] and Tehran has suspected [15:19] also that there would be [15:20] a potential escalation [15:22] in one form. [15:23] I don't know [15:23] if this could be it [15:24] but it certainly [15:25] won't be seen [15:26] as a humanitarian mission [15:29] from the Iranian side. [15:30] Do you think, though, [15:31] that Iran could be [15:33] in some way involved in it? [15:35] Donald Trump does say [15:36] this is a humanitarian gesture [15:37] as you say. [15:38] On behalf of the United States [15:40] he said Middle Eastern countries [15:41] but in particular [15:42] the country of Iran. [15:45] Do you think [15:46] they may be involved in this? [15:47] Is it part of a broader package [15:49] that we may yet see [15:51] learn more about? [15:53] I mean, if Iran is involved [15:54] meaning that this is part [15:56] of the proposal [15:56] that they fully open [15:58] the Strait of Hormuz [15:58] and the U.S. removes [15:59] the blockade [16:00] then there doesn't really [16:01] need to be an escort [16:03] unless we're talking about [16:04] post that step [16:06] of the proposal [16:06] when the strait [16:07] is fully open [16:08] the blockade is removed [16:09] and then ships are, [16:11] you know, [16:11] potentially escorted [16:12] as a group, maybe. [16:14] But I don't think [16:14] this can happen [16:15] before there's something [16:17] about that proposal. [16:19] I mean, the proposal [16:19] has been submitted. [16:20] It has multiple layers. [16:22] It's not just about the strait. [16:23] It's also very much about, [16:25] you know, [16:26] a permanent end [16:26] to the war [16:27] which is the first thing [16:28] Iran wants. [16:29] I mean, [16:29] Strait of Hormuz [16:30] is their leverage. [16:31] It's a card they're played [16:32] to end the war [16:33] and ending the war [16:34] is not just [16:35] a temporary ceasefire [16:36] for them. [16:37] They want a permanent end [16:38] and to make sure [16:38] the war doesn't come back. [16:39] So I think [16:40] that's the main issue [16:41] essentially, [16:41] the elephant in the room [16:42] that has to be addressed [16:43] and then fully opening [16:45] the strait [16:45] would be part [16:46] of that bigger packet. [16:47] So if this is a maneuver [16:48] that the U.S. [16:50] has decided to do [16:51] on its own, [16:52] as it were, [16:53] and the Iranians [16:54] are not part [16:56] of this process, [16:58] what could the response [16:59] from the RGC be? [17:02] I mean, [17:03] if they see it [17:03] as an escalation, [17:04] and I'm speculating here, [17:05] if they see it [17:06] as an escalation, [17:07] then we can see this [17:08] as, you know, [17:09] potentially continuing [17:10] the hostilities [17:11] and the conflict [17:12] and really moving away [17:14] from that door [17:15] of diplomacy [17:16] that has opened [17:17] through the mediation [17:18] of the Pakistanis [17:19] and with pressure [17:20] from some of the [17:22] regional powers. [17:23] We know many [17:23] in the region [17:24] want this war to end. [17:25] There's a global [17:26] energy crisis. [17:27] The global community [17:28] as a president [17:29] also suggested [17:30] wants the war to end, [17:31] but I think [17:32] it has to end [17:33] with both sides [17:35] agreeing through [17:36] diplomatic means [17:37] and making concessions. [17:39] You can't just [17:39] unilaterally decide [17:41] the next step, [17:42] ignoring that [17:42] there is a path [17:43] open for diplomacy. [17:44] This sounds like that. [17:46] Now, I don't know if, [17:47] you know, [17:47] it's hard to decipher [17:48] what the president [17:49] puts out there, [17:50] sometimes even for his [17:51] staff and aides [17:52] in Washington, [17:53] but I'm just speculating [17:54] on a lot of these lines here. [17:56] Yeah, nonetheless, [17:56] he is saying [17:57] and he has been [17:57] more optimistic [17:58] in this post [17:59] than he has been [18:00] in the last 48 hours [18:02] about the discussions [18:03] and the proposals [18:04] that have gone back [18:05] and forth, [18:05] saying I'm fully aware [18:06] that my representatives [18:07] are having very positive [18:08] discussions with [18:09] the country of Iran [18:10] and that these discussions [18:11] could lead to something [18:12] very positive to all. [18:15] So, if you have that [18:15] on one side [18:16] and then you have [18:16] the process of this [18:18] escorting of vessels [18:20] out of the straits, [18:21] it could be part [18:22] of a broader deal. [18:23] Potentially, yes. [18:23] Reading between the lines, [18:24] indeed, [18:25] I'm glad you brought that up. [18:26] I do see a positive message [18:28] with, again, [18:29] going back to President Trump's [18:30] past history, [18:31] this could mean [18:32] that he's considering [18:32] the proposal [18:33] and that maybe [18:34] they're finally bridging [18:35] the gap somewhere [18:36] because I think [18:36] the Iranians [18:37] are showing flexibility [18:38] by amending [18:39] and resubmitting [18:40] the proposal [18:41] and I think [18:42] President Trump [18:42] also wants to exit the war. [18:44] The problem is [18:44] it's turned into [18:45] an ego situation. [18:47] He wants to be [18:47] the absolute winner. [18:48] He's wanted surrender [18:49] and capitulation [18:50] but I think [18:51] the sooner that's understood [18:52] in the White House [18:53] that the Iranians [18:54] are not going [18:54] to fully surrender [18:55] and say, [18:56] you know, [18:56] we lose, [18:56] you win, [18:57] the sooner they can [18:58] try to bridge the gap [18:59] on multiple issues [19:00] and the strait [19:01] is just one part of it. [19:02] Iran wants economic return [19:04] after the end of the war [19:05] and then of course [19:06] the nuclear issue [19:07] which has always been [19:07] the top issue [19:08] for Washington. [19:09] There's another [19:10] hit thing here [19:10] isn't there [19:11] because for Iran [19:12] if it is carried out [19:14] it diminishes [19:15] Iran's leverage [19:16] doesn't it [19:17] because suddenly [19:17] these ships [19:18] that are trapped [19:19] I hesitate to say [19:21] held hostage [19:21] but they're trapped [19:23] within the Gulf [19:25] and they can't get [19:25] out of the strait. [19:27] That doesn't assist [19:29] Iran in its negotiations [19:30] does it? [19:31] They lose that leverage. [19:34] If it happens [19:34] I mean I don't know [19:36] if this is going [19:36] to be happening [19:37] peacefully and successfully [19:38] I also want to point out [19:39] some other issue [19:41] in Washington [19:41] we know that May 1st [19:43] was that deadline [19:44] for the 60 day war [19:45] where the president [19:46] would then need [19:47] authorization [19:47] from the U.S. Congress [19:49] and now there's [19:49] all kinds of attempts [19:50] from the administration [19:51] to say this is no war [19:52] we've been in ceasefire [19:53] so this may also [19:54] be presenting something [19:56] that's a continuation [19:57] of the conflict [19:57] as something else [19:59] that isn't [20:00] is a humanitarian [20:00] mission [20:02] separate from the war [20:03] but if the Iranians [20:03] see this as an escalation [20:05] like you're saying [20:06] trying to break [20:07] their leverage [20:07] then they're going [20:08] to respond in a different way [20:09] and not just see this [20:10] as humanitarian [20:11] Yeah well as ever [20:12] with the U.S. President's post [20:13] there's a lot of speculation [20:14] involved until we get [20:15] more feedback [20:16] and indeed a response [20:17] from Iran as well [20:18] which is what we're waiting for [20:19] so Negat Mota Zavi [20:20] appreciate that [20:21] thank you very much [20:21] Thank you [20:22] Well now the economic [20:27] effects of the war [20:28] are being felt [20:29] across Iran [20:30] rising inflation [20:30] and a soaring cost of living [20:32] have hit families hard [20:33] many are struggling [20:34] to cope [20:34] and layoffs [20:35] are becoming more common [20:36] now to Zira's [20:36] Tahida Saidi [20:37] reports from Tehran [20:38] This shoe workshop [20:41] in downtown Tehran [20:42] once employed [20:43] about 10 people [20:44] but business [20:45] has been slow [20:46] since the war [20:47] began in February [20:48] and now [20:50] all these seats [20:51] are empty [20:51] Khashayar [20:52] whose father [20:53] founded this workshop [20:54] in 1970 [20:55] says he had to [20:56] layoff nearly all [20:58] his workers [20:58] Raw materials [21:02] are the main problem [21:03] prices have surged [21:04] and some are scarce [21:05] limiting production [21:06] we once had people [21:08] working here [21:08] now the workshop [21:09] is nearly closed [21:10] this affects [21:11] almost all businesses [21:12] many small businesses [21:17] have been affected [21:18] and independent workers [21:20] are also struggling [21:21] to stay afloat [21:22] Sepehr is one of them [21:24] he is a music teacher [21:26] and instrument maker [21:27] he has fewer students [21:28] now which means [21:29] a lower income [21:30] art generally lacks [21:33] a stable economic base [21:34] and we are no exception [21:35] in wartime [21:37] this worsens [21:38] families cut [21:38] non-essential spending [21:39] like children's music classes [21:41] and instrument sales [21:42] decline [21:43] Iranian officials say [21:46] US and Israel [21:47] airstrikes [21:48] have damaged [21:49] more than 23,000 [21:50] commercial properties [21:51] according to early estimates [21:54] up to 2 million people [21:56] have been pushed out [21:57] of their jobs [21:57] by layoffs [21:58] closures [21:59] or lack of work [22:00] analysts say [22:03] the real number [22:04] could be even higher [22:05] Iran's new supreme leader [22:07] has urged business owners [22:09] to refrain from layoffs [22:10] it's not just [22:12] brick and mortar businesses [22:13] taking a hit [22:14] as internet disruptions continue [22:16] Iran's digital economy [22:18] is also under pressure [22:19] WebZ [22:20] is a website builder company [22:22] among those affected [22:23] cutting costs [22:24] to remain viable [22:25] the number of sales invoices [22:29] we issued [22:29] decreased by 50% [22:31] compared to the same period [22:32] last year [22:33] we have continued our business [22:35] by reducing some expenses [22:36] such as eliminating [22:38] additional servers [22:39] to avoid layoffs [22:40] decades of international sanctions [22:42] and domestic challenges [22:44] have weighed heavily [22:45] on Iran's economy [22:47] unemployment [22:47] has been a persistent problem [22:49] but two wars [22:51] in less than a year [22:51] have left people [22:53] with fewer options [22:54] for work [22:54] while prices rise [22:56] with efforts to end the war [22:57] stalled [22:58] many in Iran [22:59] are worried [22:59] the fighting could start again [23:01] that's clouding the hopes [23:02] the job market [23:03] will recover soon