Trump’s pause on ‘Project Freedom’ worries Gulf states, analyst says

[0:00] Natasha Tullak is an independent journalist who covers the Middle East. [0:03] She's joining us live from Dubai. [0:05] Thank you very much indeed for being with us. [0:07] Let's talk about this decision by Donald Trump to pause the operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. [0:13] How do you think GCC countries are going to be seeing that pause, [0:16] given the fact one would imagine that when ships did start making their way through the Strait, [0:21] there might have been some optimism that this was the opening permanently? [0:24] Well, there was never an explicit endorsement among GCC leaders toward President Trump's Project Freedom, [0:34] although it does align with the Gulf states' desires to see the Strait reopen. [0:39] I think there was some fear that yet another layer of militarization here could provide a tripwire for yet more escalation, [0:47] which is essentially what we saw because the day Monday that Trump announced this initiative, [0:52] we saw renewed skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz, which then were followed within a few hours by renewed Iranian strikes on the UAE. [1:01] However, giving up or, well, let's say pausing the initiative within about a day suggests that Trump may not have the stomach to continue this. [1:13] And I think there is fear among Gulf capitals that the mindset in Tehran is that, oh, this escalation may be paying off because Trump, [1:23] President Trump is so keen to extricate himself from the conflict that he may just sort of dismiss some of these strikes. [1:31] I mean, his response to the Iranian strikes on the UAE were quite lackluster. [1:37] He described them as minor, and I think there was probably some disappointment and frustration in the capitals here, [1:45] particularly in the UAE, that there was not a more robust response to that. [1:49] So I think this sense of perhaps the lack of defiance here, the lack of resolve in continuing an initiative like this [1:59] is not really reassuring, especially here. [2:02] I want to get your take on the attacks that we saw in the last 24, 48 hours on the UAE. [2:08] This is, of course, coming after as well. [2:11] The UAE has left the OPEC oil producing group. [2:16] Is this, these attacks by Iran, do you think that they are only in response to what has been happening in the Strait of Hormuz? [2:21] Or is there a wider issue here? [2:23] Is there an element where Iran might be trying to see what the reaction of the other Gulf nations would be if the UAE is attacked? [2:30] It's definitely possible that Iran is pressing on some of these fault lines to see where it can cause wider cracks. [2:41] As you mentioned, the UAE leaving OPEC, the timing of that quite striking, [2:46] announcing that departure on the day that GCC states were meant to meet in Riyadh and project an image of unity. [2:54] Actually, Anwar Gargash, a senior UAE official, the senior diplomatic advisor to the president, [3:01] recently described the GCC's collective position as, quote, the weakest in history. [3:06] There's been a lot of frustration expressed from Abu Dhabi toward its Gulf Arab neighbors [3:13] at what it believes is a lack of support, given that the UAE has received the highest volume of Iranian attacks over the course of this war. [3:21] And Iran has become more vocal than ever in criticizing and calling out the UAE specifically, [3:27] accusing it of, quote, inappropriate behavior, of aligning with its aggressors, of aligning, you know, with Israel and the U.S. [3:35] Meanwhile, the UAE's alignment with Israel and when it comes to defense technologies and investment has become more evident. [3:44] So I think it is definitely within the realm of possibility that Tehran is looking to pressure those fault lines [3:52] to see where it can take advantage of some of that fragmentation and create further divides there. [3:59] I want to get your thoughts on the ceasefire. [4:02] It seems to have come down to two significant issues in the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear deal. [4:07] But from the Gulf nation's point of view, one would imagine that their greater concern is actually Iran's missile and drone capability, [4:15] because, of course, that is what affected the Gulf states the most over the last several weeks. [4:21] Yet we're not hearing a great deal about that. [4:23] Do you think that there is a concern amongst the GCC countries that that is being put to one side, [4:28] that it's being deprioritized against the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program? [4:33] There may be. Now, I do want to stress that the Strait of Hormuz is a key concern for the GCC states. [4:41] It's crucial for their economies, and they do not want to see a world in which Iran is the gatekeeper of that vital waterway. [4:49] They also don't want to see a world where there's permanent U.S. militarization there. [4:54] But to your point about the missiles and drones, absolutely. [4:57] This is, you know, these countries here in the Arab Gulf are on the front lines of any time there is an escalation. [5:04] As we've seen, the blowback immediately hits the Gulf Arab states, and it also primarily hits the UAE. [5:10] So the lesser emphasis on this issue compared to the other two, I imagine, would certainly be a point of concern. [5:21] There is also, I think, a complete destruction of any trust that may have existed before. [5:27] As long as the current Iranian regime stays in power, I don't think that trust ever will come back. [5:33] So either there has to be some sort of ironclad security guarantee for the Gulf states, some form of really effective deterrence, [5:42] or something that indeed completely ends the missile and drone program of Iran. [5:49] But I don't see that as realistic. [5:51] Natasha Tarak, an independent journalist covering the Middle East. [5:54] We appreciate you being with us. Thank you very much indeed.