Trump’s Iran weekend strategy: Markets, oil, and military moves

[0:10] this is america and here president trump's words don't just carry weight they move markets but how [0:16] does that market volatility and fluctuating energy prices drive president's strategy when it comes [0:22] to the war in iran i'll be back a little later in the program as we explore that question but [0:26] to start us off here's annabirdus francis thanks manny yes one-man social media posts can cause [0:32] market chaos but how does it impact the war in iran in a moment we'll be joined by our [0:37] chief u.s correspondent alan fisher at the white house and kristen salumi is live for us in new [0:43] york the u.s and iran have been barely on speaking terms now it's been announced there's a truce [0:49] at least if you believe donald trump and it appears many do the s p dow jones and nasdaq [0:56] all rising off the back of the news not a bad result for a man whose love of the money market [1:01] is well known under our administration growth is exploding productivity is soaring investment is [1:09] booming [1:10] is [1:12] defeated the u.s economy remains strong we had a strong economy thanks to you i think we have the [1:21] best economy maybe we've ever had but again i mean to me the big news fifty thousand the dow [1:28] has the dow is over fifty thousand right now the s p at almost seven thousand and the nasdaq [1:37] smashing records yes even members of his [1:42] administration [1:42] share his passion for the economy but it's how politics and profit are playing out with the war [1:48] in iran that's causing some eyebrows to rise well-timed trades weekend announcements and [1:54] declarations of peace to allay market fears have some lawmakers alleging straight out market [2:00] manipulation based on what evidence well they say take a look at the price of oil it was late [2:06] february when the u.s and israel launched its military campaign against iran and on saturday [2:12] march 21st the u.s president issued iran with an ultimatum warning his military would obliterate [2:17] iran's power plants if the strait of hormuz wasn't fully opened but before trading could resume on [2:24] the next monday morning trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against energy sites and this led [2:30] to a rebound in global markets and a 13 drop in oil prices then on thursday he announced a [2:36] 10-day extension oil prices went up again on friday this time by four percent [2:42] but early on wednesday it was down again by nearly four percent the price of oil is of course [2:48] constantly in a state of flux especially during a war being carried out in an area relied upon [2:53] for its production of that very product it's no surprise then that the president is taking [2:57] a keen interest in it let's go now to our chief u.s correspondent alan fisher who joins us from [3:02] the white house alan the president uh loves the stock market and he's known for his love of truth [3:07] social so how's he been reacting to these market changes well donald trump has always conflated [3:12] the stock market with the economy and that's simply not the case even though the stock market [3:17] can be doing well it doesn't mean that the economy is doing well presidents move markets that's [3:23] always been the case and donald trump can do that more perhaps than any other president because of [3:28] his love of social media he posts on there more than any other president all has and that suggests [3:35] that he knows something that the rest of us don't and people always like to jump on that now as you [3:42] can see he's got a very positive approach they say what he's doing is enriching friends and family [3:48] because they know what he's going to send out next and they're able to get an advanced position [3:53] on the market but his supporters say all he's doing is being transparent with the american [3:58] people reaching a level that no one has ever done before here's the problem for donald trump [4:04] with all the positive messages that he puts out on social media about the economy doing well [4:09] people still aren't feeling it there's a new poll out [4:12] it says that his approval for handing the economy is at its lowest point ever in fact it's in jimmy [4:18] carter realms and that is really critical for donald trump he's often criticized jimmy carter [4:25] in the past now he can keep putting out positive messages and he can talk about how this is going [4:30] to be a very short war but people aren't feeling the benefits and until that happens they'll always [4:36] be wary of what donald trump puts on the social media when it comes to the economy thanks helen [4:42] all right let's go to christian's [4:43] who's live for us in new york kristen the president announcing a truce with iran how [4:47] did the markets react markets have responded favorably here at the new york stock exchange [4:54] on the opening bell we saw stocks rise and oil prices fall continuing a trend [5:00] that started on tuesday when all three of the major averages had their biggest single day [5:07] gains in almost a year and that was after president donald trump said that he would [5:14] be willing to end the war without fully reopening the straight of hormuz so what we've been seeing [5:21] is extreme market volatility here at the stock exchange with traders reacting to every headline [5:29] when the conflict looks like it's about to be wrapping up they buy and when it looks like it's [5:37] heating up they sell and certainly now it appears that traders are anticipating some good news from [5:45] the stock market and the stock market is going to be a big deal for president donald trump [5:50] when he speaks on wednesday evening in that national address yeah kristen as alan just [5:53] pointed out social media postings crossing over with the stock market are a common theme for the [5:58] president so how has that played out during the war well what the markets do on any given day [6:06] tends to grab the headlines either they're up or they're down but it's really important to kind of [6:11] pull back and look at the overall trend and while markets have been avoiding big one-day drops the [6:16] trend overall has been negative as i just mentioned tuesday saw the biggest single day gain for all [6:23] three of the major averages here in the united states but it was also the last day of march which [6:30] overall was a losing month and in fact for the last three months all of the major averages have [6:37] been on a losing streak and so throughout the presidency we've seen president trump using the [6:46] power of his policies domestic policies and foreign policies alike so much so that his [6:53] announcements seem to be timed to make the market happy and again that may be why we are seeing [7:00] investors respond favorably uh in the run-up to this announcement that president donald trump [7:06] is planning for wednesday night as a president who built a political career on his reputation [7:12] as a businessman donald trump has long pointed to growing markets [7:17] of successful policies i hit 50 000 on the dow we've had the best stock market in history [7:25] 53 all-time record highs since the election his desire not to upset markets resulting in [7:31] a predictable pattern when it comes to waging war make the most disruptive moves on the weekend [7:38] when markets are closed in the early hours of saturday january 3rd for example trump launched [7:44] the military raid that kidnapped venezuela's president nicholas maduro [7:48] then on another saturday february 28th the u.s and israel began their joint war on iran [7:55] three weekends later trump issued his 48-hour ultimatum threatening to obliterate iran's [8:01] power plants market futures fell dramatically but then surged when he extended the deadline [8:08] and claimed negotiations were underway just before the opening bell on monday morning [8:14] it's our declaration of economic independence investors first began to notice [8:20] trump's tactics when he was negotiating tariffs backing off his biggest threats [8:25] when markets reacted negatively i mean that's something to be proud of financial times [8:29] journalist robert armstrong coined the term taco short for trump always chickens out trump's appetite [8:38] for pain or his tolerance for pain either from the market or from the body politic is pretty weak [8:48] so he is very attuned to what the stock market is going to be like in the next couple of weeks [8:51] and bond markets are doing he's very attuned to opinion polls and very prepared to change his [8:57] position when either of those things are sending him a message the white house however insists [9:04] national security remains the driver of the president's decisions despite donald trump's [9:09] tactics we've seen overall a downward trend in the markets here on wall street and economists [9:16] are warning that the longer energy supplies and shipping is disrupted in the strait of horn moose [9:21] the greater the impact will be on main street as well kristin salini al jazeera new york well donald [9:29] trump loves the stock market and frequently uses it as a measure of his success but is it a tactic [9:34] that works here to discuss as mark fifeley former deputy national security advisor to president [9:39] george w bush and paulo von chirac president of the global policy institute thank you both for [9:44] joining me today paulo can i put this to you and i wonder if it's not one or the other but [9:49] maybe a little bit of both is there an element here that it is [9:53] action to influence some decision making but also a reaction to what is happening on stock markets [9:59] often absolutely if there's one thing that seems that mr trump pays attention to is the market [10:04] uh it was remember the announcement on liberation day the every everybody ran for the hills and they [10:11] said no no no maybe we can do this later in installments etc because it was the stock market [10:17] the bond market and maybe the secretary of the treasury told him you know what this is going to [10:23] be it's going to be a good time for the overall economy and for your standing mr president and [10:29] your favorables so i don't know i agree with i agree with what's been just said this is not [10:35] what's driving this war but uh but clearly the timing is not accidental yesterday he made this [10:43] announcement that essentially we won we have achieved all we wanted to achieve forgetting [10:48] about unconditional surrender regime change uh her moves nothing we have destroyed the president's [10:53] and said terminally the iranian nuclear program and we're going to go out not exactly tomorrow [11:00] but we're winding down and the market shoots up and of course he did it before the market closed [11:05] so you say hey this is a hooray for president trump what a what a genius you know uh decision [11:11] uh not considering how far down the market is compared to the beginning of the hostilities [11:18] so i don't again i don't think that this is all about that about market manipulation [11:24] uh but there is some element to it and i am quite sure that there are some people who are benefit [11:29] and keep in mind nobody's checking on anything the sec is not checking on anything the department of [11:35] justice is not checking on anything so i'm sure there are some people who i of course i say this [11:42] it's not it's not a new criticism to be fair either at the same time when we look about when [11:46] we talk about rather is this reactive or proactive president trump has frequently suggested he's [11:51] highly attuned not just to the markets but also to the market and so i think that this is an important [11:53] but watching how the public is reacting to their rise and fall. [11:56] Take a look at this clip from this time last year during the tariffs debacle. [12:00] First they were on and then they were off. [12:03] Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. [12:08] They were getting yippy, you know. [12:10] They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid, unlike these champions. [12:15] Because we have a big job to do. [12:17] No other president would have done what I did. [12:19] No other president. I know the presidents. They wouldn't have done it. [12:21] And it had to be done. What was happening to us on trade, not only with, you know, if you look at it, [12:28] not only with China, but China was by far the biggest abuser in history, and others also. [12:34] But somebody had to do it. They had to stop because it was not sustainable. [12:39] So is that a reliable strategy, Mark, as president, to be thinking so much on the minutiae moves that you see [12:47] and reacting and deciding your next move based on a very gentle but very frequent rise and fall in stock markets? [12:53] So I think that is quite dangerous. [12:56] And to have different messages at different times that are not being heard or that are not resonating, I think, is the challenge. [13:04] So you have a president who, over the last several months, of course, has put many of potential U.S. allies [13:11] and former U.S. allies into a very difficult position, saying that we're going to increase tariffs. [13:15] Now we're not going to. Now we're going to come up with a deal. [13:18] Now we're going to take over Greenland. [13:19] Now we want you to be part of this really difficult move. [13:23] In the Strait of Hormuz, where you help us by bringing your naval assets with no warning and no oversight [13:28] to now be part of this effort to keep the flow of oil tankers through the strait. [13:36] They are being put through a difficult situation right now, our allies or former allies or hopefully future allies. [13:43] And the thing is that the other thing that Donald Trump is looking at, the other statistic is his approval ratings, [13:48] which are probably as low as any president in recent memory at this time. [13:53] And that's going to be the one time of their presidency at about somewhere in the 30 percent. [13:57] And that means that coming in November is going to be the one time when there is going to be an investigation of sorts. [14:02] And that's going to be the people are going to go into a ballot box and pick probably a Democratic majority potentially in both houses or at least one house. [14:10] And that's going to take a lot of Mr. Trump's ability to run this type of operation with the way that he's doing it right now. [14:18] It's going to be more oversight from Congress. [14:19] So he has to do things right now as much as possible, because I think that could come to an end. [14:23] And this is obviously what he thinks is the right thing to do, Paolo. [14:26] And I'm wondering, is it because is there a lack of a of a safeguard or a rail here and the people that he has around him and his team saying maybe don't post that or let's approach that differently in messaging? [14:38] I have no idea. [14:39] Look, many people who've been in the white in this White House is there is no process. [14:44] There is not there's no decision making process. [14:46] It's not that the president acts after having heard different opinions. [14:52] And then then there is a interagency. [14:54] He's a man. [14:55] He's a man. [14:56] Okay. [14:57] You can you can all start to talk to him. [14:58] But then after you do that, you have the NRC deliberation and then somebody brings him. [14:59] Okay, there's option a option. [15:00] No, things are done haphazardly. [15:01] That's that's what we hear. [15:02] We're not there present. [15:03] But look, you're a former employer. [15:07] The NRC advisor. [15:09] There's nothing there. [15:10] It's gone. [15:12] The NRC staff is gone. [15:13] I mean, there is no interagency process anymore. [15:15] It is whatever the president decides to do at any point of the day or night. [15:20] And we've seen the the changes. [15:23] That. [15:23] be sudden and by the way regarding signaling to markets you have to be you have to pay some [15:29] attention to that because if you keep saying things anticipating policy that doesn't happen [15:35] there will be a point in which markets will discount this so okay this is another thing [15:40] from trump it's not going to happen and therefore we're not going to move our positions based on [15:45] what we believe that should happen considering what he just said if he changes his mind well [15:52] we're rolling it all back again the assumption now is that we're out we've won and the rest [16:00] let somebody else take care of it straight of our moves not our problem uh change of regime [16:06] in iran well not not now so there we go i wanted to talk about that actually about this concept [16:12] that that you know actually as much as the president can post on social media or make [16:18] these statements it's the market's choice to move on those proclamations [16:23] should there be mark do you think uh i will use the word responsibility but to assess that [16:28] information before doing this chaotic up and down move all the time the president's approach to this [16:33] is no surprise yeah this is the way he's been uh his entire adult life is kind of flying by the [16:38] seat of his pants uh his his uh fans will say that this is he's completely transparent this is a man [16:44] who puts on social media exactly what's on his mind he doesn't pull any punch any any punches [16:53] is it brings chaos and it brings a level of dysfunction at the same time the military [16:57] campaign in iran has been about as effective as it possibly can you know the the iranian economy [17:04] is decimated their military is devastated they are uh diplomatically isolated but it's that confusion [17:12] and that difficulty that the american people the enemy and our allies have it trying to keep track [17:18] of all these things that are going on in real time what is our in-state what are we looking to do [17:23] what is our strategy how are we going to bring 20 of the world's oil that moves through this [17:28] straight to market in the weeks ahead and those are answers that we might get tonight [17:33] or we might be waiting afterwards for more information so we can actually figure this out or [17:38] the challenges that the global economy right now is in a very difficult spot we are seeing oil [17:44] prices at about a hundred dollars per barrel they've increased about 30 that's going to have [17:48] a long range effect on this economy in the weeks and the months ahead we're going to see rising [17:53] for some time because of this and the hope is that tonight's address to the nation that trump [17:59] answers some of these questions in a way that makes sense both to the markets to our allies [18:03] and to our enemies so that we get through this successfully speaking of the economy the president's [18:07] made much of his achievements to grow the wider economy his treasury secretary going so far as [18:13] to say the rise and fall in oil prices in particular wasn't going to have any impact [18:18] the economy you vitalize through your pro-growth policies is well positioned to withstand [18:24] these temporary disruptions the united states dollar has reasserted itself as a safe haven asset [18:32] the u.s dollar has appreciated since the hostilities began because everyone knows thanks [18:38] to your efforts the u.s economy is the best position in the world and capital is flowing in [18:45] so paulo as our chief u.s correspondent alan fisher pointed out before the stock market is not [18:49] the economy although the two are frequently conflated so in this case the u.s economy is [18:55] a relatively enormous and is built to weather relatively large storms is this administration [19:01] or this period of conflict in iran just another storm the u.s economy has to weather yes indeed [19:07] and again what we don't know here is how long this crisis and i'm referring to the closing of [19:13] the straightover moves will last if it if it's the straits are reopened tomorrow well we can [19:19] say okay it was a bad moment but we will weather this it's not it's not terrifying [19:25] the the thing is this at the moment look at the markets in asia japan korea they are it looks [19:32] really dire and at the moment what they are experiencing is a price increase what about [19:38] if there is a supply disruption meaning whatever you pay for oil and gas it's just not there [19:45] we don't have it we can sell it to you because it doesn't exist yeah well then you start seeing [19:50] things that we probably have not calculated for and again i don't know what the president can say [19:55] and to that extent um no i she says we hear from [20:17] you [20:18] um [20:19] well [20:21] good [20:23] time [20:24] yeah [20:25] thank [20:25] you [20:25] i [20:25] a few million dollars per tanker because, you know, we've got to reconstruct the country. [20:29] So you pay if you want to go through. That's a possibility. [20:33] Mark, I want to give you just quickly the final word here, because, of course, all this talk of [20:37] the economy and stock markets and public reaction, none of that or all of that will matter in just a [20:42] few months, as you pointed out, when it comes to the midterms. This period seems to be about [20:45] offering some reassurance of the state of things. I think that's right. When Donald Trump won this [20:50] past election, pretty overwhelmingly, it was because he was going to keep prices low. He was [20:55] going to keep inflation low. He was going to grow the drop market. And ideally, and one thing that [21:00] he talked about repeatedly was low gas prices. So he needs to do everything he can to stop this war, [21:06] free up the Strait of Hormuz and get this market going in a positive way. I think Scott Bessette, [21:10] I think he's a reassuring person as secretary of Treasury. But I think at the same time, [21:16] there's only so much that one because this storm is a manmade storm by one man. And only he can [21:22] stop it and bring some level of prosperity in the future. [21:25] Mark. [21:25] Paolo, thank you very much for your time and your thoughts. Of course, it's not just investors [21:29] watching these market movements so closely. It's also the media. Let's head back to Manny [21:33] in the newsroom to have a look at how it's playing out in the U.S. [21:37] This is the pattern that's emerging across the U.S. news media. It's about how President Trump [21:41] is handling the war in Iran, because it's not just being tracked by military analysts. It's [21:46] being tracked by the markets. Let's head over to Bloomberg to kick this off. This is financial [21:50] reporter Anna Edwards. [21:52] And we do seem to be caught in the art of the deal here, don't we? I mean, we're just getting so many [21:56] different signals coming out of the White House. And those mixed signals are President Trump saying [22:00] one day that the conflict with Iran is almost over and then the next day threatening escalation. [22:05] Let's head over to the Associated Press with this headline. Trump's go-to moves to influence [22:10] the markets are increasingly falling flat as the Iran war drags on. That reporting goes on to say [22:16] that as the messaging to calm markets with false reassurances is having diminishing credibility [22:21] in financial markets, so too has Trump's diminished public confidence. [22:25] Now, this theme of diminishing confidence is definitely prevalent [22:29] across the media sphere. This is former White House press secretary Jen Psaki on MSNOW. [22:35] You see, Trump has gotten used to the idea that he can make big, disastrous decisions [22:40] and just reverse himself when he thinks things get out of control, when he sees people don't [22:46] like it necessarily. I mean, we all watched him do it over and over again with his tariffs, [22:50] threatening steep duties on imports, watching the markets crash and then walking it all back. [22:54] And here's the Washington Post. [22:55] Washington Post's Josh Rogin on CNN talking about how Trump's changing rhetoric is doing [23:00] more than just influencing markets. You can say that he was doing this to [23:04] sue the markets. Another way to say that is that he's doing this to manipulate the markets. [23:07] Now, to be fair, there are many others who are rallying around the Trump administration, [23:11] framing much of the news media's focus on President Trump's sometimes contradictory [23:15] language as unfair nitpicking. Let's head over to Fox Business. This is anchor Dagan McDowell. [23:22] I'm not reading into what President Trump says. [23:25] Publicly, because there is a there's a method to his public presentation very often, [23:34] and he is 10 steps ahead. So what's the story coming out of the U.S. media here? This is a [23:40] case of a U.S. president whose messaging moves markets, a conflict that is driving up energy [23:45] costs and a wartime strategy that, depending on who you ask, is either carefully calibrated [23:49] or increasingly unpredictable. That's all from the team here in Washington, D.C. Let's hand back to [23:56] Al Jazeera's Global Headquarters. [23:58] Global Headquarters in Doha.