Trump weighing invading several Iranian islands

[0:00] president trump is weighing several options that could result in heavy u.s casualties [0:05] it's a heavy sentence to say but that's the reality and according to axios [0:09] on top of invading karg island a move that trump of course we've pointed out has talked about since [0:14] 1988 the pentagon is also drawing up scenarios that involve military action on several other [0:20] iranian islands those islands key to iran's oil production as well as control over the [0:25] strait of hormuz itself axios is now reporting specifically on some other possible invasions [0:31] and i know seth had spent time talking about two other islands closer to the strait of hormuz and [0:35] also seizing the iranian ships that are carrying iranian oil even as they've taken away the [0:39] sanctions that would allow iran to sell that oil but um you know being contradictory doesn't stop [0:44] them um does it sound to you that we're on the verge of a potentially dramatic escalation [0:51] it does erin now it doesn't mean that it's going to happen but the likelihood [0:55] is has increased that it will happen and what we're looking at is the increase in the force [1:00] posture by the u.s forces the fact that not only do we have about 50 000 troops in the region right [1:07] now but we are also getting more we're getting more airplanes more air force squadrons are coming [1:12] in fighter squadrons are coming in we have of course the two muse that are one is basically [1:17] there already and the other one is approaching and then you also have of course the 82nd airborne so [1:23] all of those elements are [1:25] critical elements for america's firepower in general and they don't make deployments [1:30] like this just to have an exercise this is a demonstration of force that could easily be used [1:36] for actual combat operations and every time it's so far that trump has done that in this in this [1:41] situation frankly even with venezuela he's used it i mean you know that doesn't mean it's going [1:44] to happen but that's that's the trend uh seth when we we talk about uh abu musa and two other [1:50] smaller islands you had talked about those axios is now reporting that he is indeed looking at those [1:55] that are north of the strait so abu musa and two other islands and so you see that the two islands [1:59] particularly one of abu musa and two other islands is still in need in the us as well [2:02] but so the the option to use those is to possibly beコンセレト and another option which is [2:07] because they've already said that was possibly um a very likely option because they're in the [2:13] strait as opposed to hundreds of miles north of the strait which is where hard island lies [2:17] so if if abu musa is the target then what does that look like well i think aaron we've already [2:22] seen partially what it looks like because what we've seen is u.s aircraft striking a range of [2:26] GERS communications centers where if they do end up landing forces there, they're trying to limit [2:32] the resistance that is faced. One thing that we have not seen a lot of is the bombing of those [2:39] airstrips in case they wanted to land aircraft like a C-130 or C-17. So that all suggests the [2:49] possibility of amphibious landings to seize those islands, which could be used both for defensive [2:55] purposes if there were incoming strikes to target any transits of the Strait of Hormuz and offensive [3:02] operations into Iran itself for strikes. And I know that, Colonel Layton, you said that the [3:07] amount of warning time that troops on those islands would have from a missile from Iran [3:11] could be as little as 10 seconds. That's right, depending on where the missile is and what type [3:14] of missile. Which fits with what we're hearing the Pentagon is saying, that the scenarios they're [3:18] looking at involve a very high level of potential casualties. A sobering moment, especially given [3:24] some of the... [3:25] Childish rhetoric that gets thrown around, right? We're talking about human lives. [3:28] Trump reportedly considering an invasion of La Rock Island, which lies in the narrowest part of the [3:33] Strait of Hormuz and is key to Iran's control of the Strait, part of the area that's now called [3:39] Tehran's tollbooth. The island is 49 square miles, very small, but it does host bunkers, attack craft [3:46] that can blow up cargo ships, and radar technology that tracks activity in the Strait, all of this [3:51] Iranian military. Colonel Cedric Layton is back with us at the Magic Wall. [3:55] Colonel Layton, you know, we've talked a lot about Karg. You know, I know Seth's talked about Abu Musa, but La Rock is also important. We've got it highlighted here. What would an invasion of La Rock look like, especially in the context of what you know is already in the region and what Trump has coming in? [4:11] Yeah, absolutely, Aaron. So just to orient people right here, this is where La Rock is, right here at the mouth, basically, of the Strait of Hormuz, if you're coming out this way. Abu Musa is here, and Karg Island is right up here in the northern part of the Gulf. So when you look at La Rock specifically, it is right in this area right here where they have the area right here where you could really cut off anything that's going through the Strait. So this is a critical military target. [4:41] Or at least potentially a critical military target. And one of the key things is how would you actually go about doing this? Well, you would bring in the Marine Expeditionary Units. This is the kind of thing that they do. They can invade using their Marine infantry to go across the beach. They have armor that they probably wouldn't use, but they might use helicopters to fast rope into an area. And they would also be able to use some of their other things, such as the Ospreys, for example, that can be both [5:11] helicopter-like, as in this phase, or airplane-like. So it's a very versatile platform. And then, of course, you have combat vehicles that they can actually send in. These are amphibious vehicles that can actually hit the beaches and disgorge Marines. So that becomes a critical thing, because when you look at La Rock, it is a basic rock in the middle of the desert, and it does the kinds of things that you would be able to see in these areas. This area here would be the defended area that you spoke about. [5:40] Yeah. [5:41] It has all the radar installations. It's also very mountainous. This might be an area that they could consider for invasion, but there are roads and other things here. So there are several different targets that could potentially be beachheads, but it is a difficult place to invade at this point. [5:55] Yeah. I mean, and obviously that is where some of those casualties come in. I mean, the potential casualties, the risk here, when you talk about the mountainous area, so it's small, but there's a lot there. [6:07] Absolutely. There's a lot there. And, of course, if they hold the high ground until it's bombed. [6:11] That could give them a field of fire that could control approaches like at this beach right here or even in the southern areas. So it's a very critical element here that has to be decided, and there has to be a lot of fusion of different forces, air power along with infantry along with other elements of power. [6:28] So Iran has been threatening now new threats against U.S. troops who are not staying on U.S. bases, okay? And that might seem a bit confusing, but there's a reason for that. [6:37] Some of it is, as CNN's reported, some of those troops were moved off the bases before the war. [6:41] So the U.S. troops were moved off the bases before the war began, but the New York Times is reporting that even more troops were moved off the bases because the bases have been hit, and there has been meaningful damage. [6:50] How much damage is Iran causing to the U.S. bases in the region? [6:54] So this is pretty significant. These are the bases as we know them right now, and these are the bases that were actually struck by the Iranians. [7:02] So that includes everything from Al-Dafra Air Base in the UAE, Al-Yudid in Qatar, Prince Sultan Air Base, where we did have a casualty, a death. [7:09] Right, right. [7:10] In Riyadh. [7:11] In Riyadh, and I've been stationed there. [7:13] And then, of course, at Port Chuaiba, where we had the mass casualty event with the Army National Guard soldiers. [7:19] So this is a critical element right here, and, of course, they also ended up attacking the area in Bahrain. [7:26] So this is the Port Chuaiba strike, and what that really shows is that when you look at this area, this shows the vulnerability of each one of these. [7:35] This is the Bahrain strike, where they knocked out a communications element here. [7:39] And so these bases are protected. [7:41] They're particularly vulnerable because each of them have a unique mission set. [7:45] And what they ended up doing was move a lot of personnel into office buildings, into other areas, even into hotels. [7:51] And now what they're doing is they're actually telling people in Iran and in this region right here, they're actually telling them to target Americans in those hotels, in those office spaces. [8:02] So it's become dangerous in that way as well. [8:04] Right.