Trump vows military to stay until real deal; analyst says Iran holds cards

[0:00] U.S. President Donald Trump has just posted on Truth Social. He says [0:03] all U.S. ships, aircraft and military personnel with additional ammunition, weaponry and anything [0:09] else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already [0:15] substantially degraded enemy will remain in place in and around Iran until such time as the real [0:22] agreement is reached and is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is [0:29] highly unlikely, then the shoot-in starts bigger and better and stronger than anyone has ever seen [0:36] before. It was agreed a long time ago and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary, no nuclear [0:42] weapons and the Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe. In the meantime, our great military is loading [0:48] up and resting, looking forward actually to its next conquest. America is back. Now, Amin Asaikal is [0:58] a professor emeritus of Middle East and Central Asian Islamic Studies at the Australian National [1:03] University. He's also the author of Iran Rising, the Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic. He [1:08] joins us from Canberra in Australia. We'll get on to the peace talks in just a moment, but the focus [1:15] is getting the Strait of Hormuz and who actually controls that. It's the most contested waterway in [1:22] the world right now. Now, Donald Trump there really saying that the Americans are going to stay where [1:30] they are until the Strait is open for everybody. The Iranians are also saying that they want to keep [1:36] sovereignty over the Strait. And then you have the international community, some suggesting that it [1:41] should become an international waterway. It's incredibly contested. I mean, are there any real kind [1:50] of geopolitical issues when it comes to who controls what? Why is it so contested? Well, there's no [1:59] question that Iran at the moment is claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz. But of course, [2:06] the Strait of Hormuz is located between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Sultanate of Oman. And [2:12] my understanding is that the Iranians are in communications with the Omanis. I think at the [2:20] end, then Iran will have to really adopt a position which could be suitable to the agreement that they're [2:30] going to reach. I mean, at this stage, I mean, we are in a very early stages of the ceasefire. And [2:37] both sides are really posturing as much as they can. I mean, you know, President Trump is [2:43] raising their rhetorics once again, and also threatening Iran that if the real agreement is [2:51] not really reached, then obviously, you know, he's going to hit Iran even stronger. I don't think [2:57] this sort of threatening language can really work and can really wash with the Iranian side. And at the [3:02] same time, the Iranians would like to really get as much out of the current ceasefire towards a more [3:11] viable settlement as possible. But I think the Strait of Hormuz is going to remain a point of [3:17] contention. Some analysts claim that under international law, it should be an international [3:23] waterway and therefore open to all this traffic. But then Iranians claim that it is within their [3:30] territorial water. And if that is really the case, therefore, they should have a very strong [3:34] leverage over who should get through and who should not as far as the passage of ships are [3:42] concerned through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Iranian Revolution Guard Corps has just released [3:47] a map. We can bring it up on screen here. This map is a new route that is taking place. It goes very [3:55] close to an island that suggested to be quite strategic and very military. This is Iran effectively [4:03] changing the facts, not so much on the ground, but in the Gulf. This is now the new route. And so this [4:10] is the Iranians actually, before the peace talks, saying, this is what you've got to do. Is this going [4:16] to be acceptable, do you think, to the international community? Well, I think it's going to be very much [4:22] contentious. And the Islamic Revolution Guard has also said that there are naval mines. There may be [4:30] naval mines there. And therefore, it is important for all the ships that are going to go through the [4:37] Strait of Hormuz to coordinate with the Islamic Revolution Guard or the Iranian armed forces. [4:42] And I think that's not going to be, not going to go down really well with President Trump and his [4:50] expectation that the Strait of Hormuz should be open to everybody and for all sorts of traffics. [4:58] Now, when it comes to the peace talks, Iran has already, in many ways, if you accept this premise [5:05] that I'm going to try to put to you, has already won because all Iran had to do, Islamic Revolution [5:11] had to do, was survive. And it seems to have survived to the point of peace talks. Would you agree with that? [5:16] I think that is a general assumption on the part of many analysts. And I think that is really the [5:24] case that Iran at the moment has the upper hand. President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu [5:32] at the beginning set out to basically destroy the Islamic regime and to bring about regime change [5:39] that has not really taken place. And as you pointed out, the regime has survived. Not only survived, [5:44] but also has likely to emerge much stronger than it was even before the start of the war. And [5:51] therefore, I think that in the mind of many people could be interpreted as a win for Iran rather [6:01] than for the United States and Israel. But that's not something that either Israel or for that matter, [6:05] the United States would acknowledge. [6:08] Amin Sakhal, thank you so much for your thoughts. Fascinating.