Trump: US 'close' to deal to end war on Iran and ceasefire may be extended

[0:00] Donald Trump says the U.S. is close to reaching a long-term peace agreement with Iran. [0:04] He said Iran has agreed to, quote, almost everything. [0:08] Trump says the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations may happen over the weekend. [0:14] It's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, [0:17] and it's going to be a good deal. It's going to be a deal with no nuclear weapons. [0:23] When is the next of negotiations on the war in Iran? [0:29] When will that take place? [0:29] I mean, it's not a question of a round. All of them are important. [0:32] When will the next person meeting take place? [0:34] Probably, maybe over the weekend. [0:37] Well, we have two specialists to discuss the conflicts in the Middle East. [0:40] Samir Puri is a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College London, [0:44] and Ali Akbar-Darini is a researcher at the Tehran-based think tank Centre for Strategic Studies. [0:51] Thanks very much for being with us here on Al Jazeera once again. [0:54] Samir, if I can begin with you. [0:55] Trump once again saying very, very close to a deal. [0:58] Potentially, there will be negotiations in the next 24, 48 hours. [1:02] What chance do you think of that actually happening at this point? [1:09] One thing we've learned over the last just over a year is that Donald Trump is not a very good evaluator of peace deals. [1:16] That's Russia, Ukraine, Thailand, Cambodia. [1:20] I know this is obviously a totally different, separate conflict. [1:23] Each war is unique. [1:24] But he's obviously adding his enthusiasm to try to give extra momentum to the talks, which is a good thing. [1:29] Clearly, that alongside the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, these are good things. [1:34] And one would hope that they add momentum. [1:37] But the reality is that the gaps between Iran and the U.S. on a series of critical issues [1:43] mean that for the U.S. to achieve what it wants in the peace talks [1:47] probably means the Iranian government will feel that it is admitting defeat. [1:52] And I'm not sure how the Iranian government will admit defeat, [1:56] given the fact that they feel that they have effectively fought the U.S. [1:59] at least to a standstill in their interpretation of how this war has gone so far. [2:03] Ali, we can bring you in now. [2:06] What do you make of that? [2:07] Obviously, Donald Trump is extremely optimistic. [2:09] And we know the leadership in Tehran is not going to want to admit defeat like Samir is pointing out. [2:20] When Trump speaks of an agreement with Iran or being close to a deal with Iran, [2:28] you should be more worried that he may do something evil. [2:30] Given Iran's past experience, there is absolutely no trust in the United States. [2:37] But given the experience of the 40-day war, there is a possibility of Iran and the U.S. [2:48] going towards a framework agreement. [2:50] If Trump returns to his America first policy, there is a possibility of a framework deal. [3:01] If he insists on Israel first policy, no expectation of a deal. [3:07] You know, Iran is now in a stronger position. [3:12] It has a winning card. [3:14] The blockade is not going to work. [3:17] Iran has ignored that blockade. [3:19] But there is some possibility that Iran and the U.S. may reach a framework deal, [3:25] including Iran allowing some American non-military ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz [3:34] in return for paying fees or security services. [3:39] But we have to wait and see what the Americans' position will be. [3:44] Right, Samir, what would need to be involved in any sort of framework deal? [3:48] Are we talking about Iran's nuclear program in the Strait of Hormuz, [3:52] which appear to still be the major sticking points between the two, right? [3:57] Yeah, I'm also following the logic as well in terms of how this might play out. [4:01] And I would agree until the point of the U.S. paying a toll to Iran. [4:05] That, I think, is not going to happen. [4:07] In terms of what sort of framework deal could emerge, [4:09] I think because there are so many issues of contention between the U.S. and Iran, [4:14] the first thing is how many of those issues are actually in a framework deal. [4:18] Does it include enrichment? [4:19] Does it obviously include ship passage? [4:22] Does it include a U.S. role helping Israel in southern Lebanon? [4:26] Does it include Hezbollah? [4:28] Is it narrow or is it broad? [4:29] And I think in the history of peacemaking, [4:32] sometimes an excessively broad agenda in a framework agreement can spell very quick failure [4:37] because there's just too many issues there. [4:39] So I think there is also a question, [4:41] and the Pakistanis will be dealing with this, [4:43] they're grappling with this now. [4:45] How wide is a putative deal in terms of the number of issues that it includes? [4:51] Ali, what would Iran actually be willing to shift or move? [4:55] Not necessarily concede, [4:57] but what could they be willing to negotiate on, do you think? [5:05] Iran has been open to negotiations, [5:07] but given the fact that the Trump administration bombed the negotiating table twice, [5:14] it has zero trust of the American side. [5:19] But Iran's demands are very clear and legitimate. [5:23] Iran wants its right to uranium enrichment be respected, [5:26] it wants its frozen assets be released, [5:31] it wants war compensation, [5:32] and it wants the U.S. to recognize [5:34] that Iran has the right to control the Strait of Hormuz [5:38] in return for allowing American ships to pass through the Strait, [5:45] non-military ships, I mean. [5:47] And also giving some concessions on the nuclear issue, [5:53] but no concessions on the missile program or its allies. [5:56] Iran will not abandon its allies, [5:58] Iran will never, ever give up its missile program, [6:02] and it will not give up its right to uranium enrichment, [6:05] but it may agree to some limitations on that. [6:09] Samir, given all of that, [6:11] it feels like Donald Trump is really trying to force this through, [6:14] force the issue here, [6:15] really putting pressure on wanting to see progress. [6:18] What is the risk of that happening? [6:21] Because negotiations of this scale [6:22] can sometimes take years to get an agreement. [6:25] Yes, and he's not a patient man, [6:29] and he's also under a huge domestic [6:31] and global economic pressure [6:33] to bring this war to a quick conclusion, [6:35] more in line with the narrative he had for this war. [6:38] There is every reason to believe [6:41] that the Pakistani mediators [6:42] are having to obviously accommodate the U.S. [6:45] need to move very, very quickly, [6:48] juxtaposed with Iran's very correct strategic assessment [6:51] that it has a lot to gain by stringing things out. [6:53] And, you know, it's fair enough that Dan Cain and Pete Hegseth [6:57] said in the press conference in the last sort of day or two [7:00] that the U.S. can retain this blockade, [7:02] the naval blockade, indefinitely, [7:04] that it can retain the ability [7:06] to resume offensive bombardment military operations [7:09] at any stage. [7:12] But can the U.S. indefinitely retain [7:14] its overwatch posture over Iran and the blockade, [7:17] or is there actually a ticking clock [7:20] that the U.S. needs to deliver a result in [7:22] and can Iran string the negotiations out? [7:24] So that's also one very likely approach [7:27] Iran might be taking with the talks. [7:29] Well, Ali, can you enlighten us a little bit more on that? [7:33] Is that part of Tehran's tactics [7:35] to try and string this out as long as possible [7:38] that it can withstand the U.S. blockade [7:41] of the so-called blockade of Hormuz? [7:46] First of all, the U.S. blockade [7:48] is not going to last for long. [7:52] Why? [7:52] Because Iran has, you know, winning cards. [7:56] First, Iran has ignored the blockade. [7:58] I have information saying that several Iranian ships [8:01] passed the Strait of Hormuz [8:03] and are on their destination without being stopped. [8:06] If the Americans fire at the Iranian ships [8:08] or confiscate them, [8:10] Iran will confiscate and fire at American ships. [8:13] And those of their allies. [8:15] And more important, [8:17] Iran's ally Ansarullah in Yemen [8:19] is on the verge of closing [8:21] the Bab al-Mandeb Straits [8:24] to hostile ships. [8:27] And this will add another layer of pressure [8:30] on the United States to back down [8:32] and end its illegitimate blockade [8:36] in the high seas. [8:39] So Iran's policy has been [8:43] to get the U.S. into a war of attrition. [8:46] The U.S. wants a vertical war. [8:50] Iran wants horizontal war. [8:52] The U.S. goes for classical war [8:54] with a very decisive victory [8:57] in a short period of time. [8:59] Iran goes for asymmetrical tactics [9:02] covering a wide geographical region [9:05] and turn it into a costly war. [9:08] And Iranian strategy has won. [9:11] The U.S. got stuck in a 40-day war [9:15] and at the end demanding a ceasefire. [9:17] Okay, we'll leave it there. [9:18] But thank you so much, [9:19] Samir Puri, [9:20] visiting lecturer in war studies [9:21] at King's College London. [9:23] Ali Akbar Dharini, [9:24] a researcher at the Centre for Strategic Studies [9:27] in Tehran. [9:27] Thanks again for joining us.