Trump says, 'We win regardless': US–Iran talks intensify over strait of Hormuz crisis

[0:00] President Donald Trump has just addressed the latest talks with Iran. He says the U.S. has won. [0:11] Look, regardless, we win. Regardless of what happens, we win. We've totally defeated that country. [0:20] And so let's see what happens. Maybe they make a deal, maybe they don't. [0:25] From the standpoint of America, we win. One of the things that's happening is that boats are sailing up [0:31] and heading out to our country. Beautiful tankers. And we're loading them up with oil and gas and everything else. [0:39] And it's a pretty beautiful thing to see. [0:49] We're going to see what happens. We're in very deep negotiations with Iran. [0:56] We win regardless. We've defeated them militarily. [1:00] They've dropped a couple of water mines. You call them water mines in the boat. [1:05] We've defeated all of their water boats, too. Their navy has gone 158 ships. [1:10] They have 28 water droppers, mine droppers, they call them. [1:14] All of them are sunk. They probably have a couple of mines in the water. [1:18] We have mine sweepers out there. We're sweeping these straight. [1:22] In addition to that, we're negotiating. Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. [1:28] Joining us now from Islamabad is Abbas Aslani. He's a senior research fellow at the Tehran-based [1:35] Center for Middle East Strategic Studies. Good to have you with us. I'm sure you heard [1:39] Donald Trump's comments there saying whether we make a deal or not makes no difference. [1:44] How is that likely to go down with the Iranian side now? [1:48] Sami, you know, Trump was saying that regardless of what is happening, they've been so. [1:58] But, you know, following the recent aggression against Iran, they failed to achieve, you know, [2:06] strategic objectives. That's why they offered Iran to come and negotiate and also establish a ceasefire. [2:14] For high stakes diplomacy of this kind, you know, ups and downs, back and forth, or even gradual progress [2:21] is somehow normal. And we have been seeing these kind of, let's say, developments in the past negotiations. [2:30] But what is important at the moment is that the two sides have been able to enter to drafting phase, [2:36] meaning that regarding the framework, they have been able to make some progress. [2:42] But the second point that they are yet in the city, you know, engaging in talks and continuing the [2:48] discussions after the midnight and early in the morning, this indicates that, you know, [2:57] maybe gradual progress is being made. But in the meantime, you know, some sticking points remain. [3:05] We were expecting these tough and challenging negotiations. This is not something that could [3:11] be resolved overnight. [3:13] Abbas, what do you make of reports, which we've heard reported actually by two of our correspondents [3:21] earlier, one there in Islamabad, one in Tehran, saying they're hearing that the point, [3:27] one of the major points of contention that they've run into is the Straits of Hormuz. [3:32] Is it about the timing for the opening or the full opening of the Straits of Hormuz? [3:41] Well, that is about maybe the timing and the quality, you know, of the reopening, [3:48] because according to the previously agreed framework, there were some, you know, arrangements [3:55] in place. We are seeing that the United States is shifting its position in the past few days. [4:02] They want to somehow change what they, what has been agreed in the, you know, Pakistani brokerage [4:09] ceasefire agreement. That's why this has changed to be a sticking point in the ongoing discussions. [4:16] Also, Iran controlling the Straits for a safe passage of the vessels, in addition to charge, [4:24] you know, tolls from those tankers that are passing the waterway are among the discussions. [4:32] And the Iran insists that this is a significant and among its core demands that cannot be subject [4:40] to compromises. So American side seems to be somehow pushing back against the Iranian position. [4:47] So that's why we are seeing that they have yet engaged in high level discussions in the city, [4:53] which tells us that they want to make some decisions and that could be somehow decisive in [5:00] setting the trajectory ahead, whether we will be having more discussions at high level tomorrow [5:06] or technical one, and how much hopeful we could be about the process. And let's not forget, Sami, [5:12] that this is just the beginning and not the end game. Some other issues also remain to be addressed. [5:19] And we are in a stage that the countries want to somehow leave behind the past few weeks' [5:27] disagreements or, you know, tensions to see if they can continue the path down the road in a manner [5:34] that, you know, tell us if a potential agreement would then reach or not. [5:39] All right. Abbas Aslani, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies. [5:45] Thanks for joining us. You joined us from Islamabad. [5:51] Iranian and U.S. conditions for ending the war appear to show some major differences. [5:56] You see, Washington's list hasn't been published, but U.S. media leaks suggest it includes [6:01] a 30-day ceasefire, while Iran is calling for a complete halt to strikes and guarantees against [6:08] future attacks. The U.S. wants three of Iran's nuclear facilities to be dismantled, Tehran to never [6:17] develop a nuclear weapon and to stop the enrichment of uranium. Tehran rules out any restrictions on its [6:24] enrichment program. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a key U.S. demand. Iran wants guarantees [6:31] it will get sovereignty over the waterway. The U.S. also wants Iran to end its support for regional [6:38] non-state allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran is demanding the U.S. and [6:45] Israel stop the war on all fronts, including fighting its regional allies. The two-week ceasefire between [6:54] the U.S. and Iran has led to optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But traffic remains [6:59] at a fraction of normal levels and hundreds of ships are still stranded. Omikulsum Sharif explains. [7:07] Before the war, more than 100 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz every single day. That's more than 36,000 [7:15] tankers a year. Now, 20 percent of global oil and natural gas pass through this critical waterway. [7:23] But Iran's effective closure of it has stranded hundreds of oil tankers and other ships in the [7:29] Gulf. Now, this is what we can see since Tuesday, the day of the ceasefire. And this image is from [7:36] marinetraffic.com that lets us track vessel movements in real time. And what we see here is very little [7:43] movement around the bend. But we see many ships that are stranded on either side. Now, before the [7:50] truce was announced, U.S. President Donald Trump had said reopening the Strait was a requirement for [7:56] any deal. Now, Tehran, for its part, says the passage of ships needs to be coordinated with its military. [8:04] Now, the state news agency has released this map from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. [8:08] It basically outlines a new route for ships to take. To simplify, I have this image here. And Iran's [8:17] Revolutionary Guard are basically saying that ships need to travel, sail through Iranian waters right [8:23] around Laruk Island and pass out this way and avoid the earlier normal path for the risk of naval [8:30] mines. So the new path is effectively this way. Tehran has also indicated under a new deal, [8:40] under a new permanent deal, they would seek to charge a fee for ships transiting the Strait of [8:46] Hormuz. Now, Tehran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war has [8:52] continued to roll energy markets. And supplies have further been hit with attacks on energy infrastructure [9:00] right across the region, from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, to Qatar, [9:06] a global leading LNG exporter. [9:11] Joining us from Washington DC now is Gordon Gray. He's a former U.S. Ambassador and Deputy Assistant [9:18] Secretary of State for Near East Affairs. And Mohsen Farghani. He joins us from Isfahan in Iran. He's an [9:26] Assistant Professor at the University of Isfahan. Let me start with Ambassador Gray. So we've had these latest [9:34] statements by Donald Trump drop, saying basically, whether we make a deal or not makes no difference [9:42] to me. We've already won. And he's saying this after dispatching a figure as senior as his vice [9:50] president to talks. How do we reconcile these two different messages on whether he really cares [9:57] about talks and making a deal? Well, we can't reconcile the two statements. And [10:06] that's why I would just disregard the statement that you just played, saying that he doesn't care [10:12] about a deal. He obviously cares very deeply about a deal. The reason for that is that the U.S. economy [10:21] has gone in the wrong direction. The gas prices are way up. The inflation rate for March is up [10:33] significantly as well. And this is the president who campaigned on the promise that he would [10:40] bring down the inflation rate. He won the election because of concerns about then-President Biden's [10:48] handling of the economy. And he's the president who, just four days before the war, in his State [10:53] of the Union address, was bragging about lowering the price of gasoline. Moreover, the war is very [11:01] unpopular in the United States because he's never really explained the rationale for it. If he didn't [11:08] care about making a deal, he wouldn't have sent his vice president, his golfing buddy, Mr. Witkoff, [11:15] and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Okay. Mohsin, Ines Fahal, [11:23] is it a good sign, at least, that the talks are going this late into the night, with some indication, [11:31] at least from the Iranian side, that they'll be going into tomorrow? First of all, I should say [11:40] that the current conditions are highly flawed and subject to change at any moment. But as it's [11:48] lasting actually is showing that both teams are working very hard, especially, you know, [11:56] I believe Iran's team, they are, you know, struggling very much because actually before [12:05] these meetings, these negotiations round, all the 10 conditions of Iran were accepted. [12:14] But now we are facing stalemating of the American team against those conditions that they have already [12:23] accepted. And also Trump has, you know, published that statement of Dr. Iraqji in his Truth Social. [12:35] Then this lasting means that Iran is embracing actually, you know, peace negotiations. We [12:46] we are against, you know, bloodshed and slaughtering. But I hope that the U.S. team is about to, [12:55] you know, you know, making a kind of distance from this kind of old hegemonic discourse, [13:06] which is now outdated. And they look for these negotiations as positive points. [13:16] Ambassador Gray, we are hearing that one of the major sticking points at this point in time [13:23] is the Straits of Hormuz. Now, we've also heard different messages from Donald Trump about the [13:29] Straits of Hormuz. Less than 24 hours ago, he indicated that the U.S. would not accept Iranian [13:36] charging of of tolls, control over the Straits of Hormuz. But we also did hear several days ago, [13:45] he indicated that maybe him and the Ayatollah will be controlling the Straits of Hormuz. [13:51] Do we know exactly what is the U.S. demand at this point in the talks for the Straits of Hormuz? [13:57] What are they asking the Iranian side to do now? [14:00] I think the U.S. demand for the Strait of Hormuz will be to open them and allow them to the [14:12] free flow of tankers and other commercial vessels through the through the strait. As you point out, [14:21] President Trump's been all over the place on the question of tolls, which, you know, on one hand, [14:31] is strange, but on the other hand, gives his negotiating team and the Iranians some flexibility [14:38] to find a middle ground that both countries can live with. [14:42] Okay, that's an interesting point. Briefly, Mohsin, what is the likelihood, [14:47] looking at this from the Iranian delegation's perspective, I'm guessing the Strait of Hormuz is one of [14:51] their main weapons in their negotiating arsenal. How likely is it that they might agree to remove [15:00] all restrictions, especially at this point, would they prefer to keep their control of the [15:06] Straits of Hormuz to try and increase the negotiating pressure until the end of talks? [15:14] You know, this is not just a kind of pressure instrument. Actually, also, I heard that your [15:22] colleague in Islamabad said that Iran's position on Strait of Hormuz is maximalist, but it is not. [15:28] You know, actually, this is a condition that was accepted by Trump. And actually, [15:35] this is officially accepted by Trump. And when did Donald Trump accept the Iranian position on [15:42] Straits of Hormuz? I believe that we are not going to lose our achievements. This is our achievement. [15:51] And we're going to keep it. Gun, you know, for sure. No, but I was asking you to clarify, [15:58] because it sounded like you said Donald Trump had accepted the Iranian position on Straits of Hormuz, [16:02] and I'm not sure what you're referring to. You're saying that Trump has accepted it. Of course, [16:13] you know, the statement that Dr. Orochi has published, also, Trump has republished that. [16:20] You know, it means that they have accepted our 10 conditions. You mean the 10 points, [16:26] the statement he made at the beginning of the ceasefire that, well, he said it was a workable, [16:31] he called it workable. So, yes, I mean, perhaps trying to get into the mind and meaning. [16:38] You know, this is a game with words. You know, this is a game with words that, you know, [16:44] he likes always playing with words and creating new narratives, you know. [16:49] Right. Actually, to begin our diplomacy, again, and these two weeks' negotiations, [16:58] we have made these 10 conditions totally clear for the American team to enter to these negotiations. [17:06] Sure. All right, Mohsen, I'm sorry, I want to try and bring… [17:09] I want to try and bring… It cannot be acceptable. [17:12] Understood. Just for the sake of time and moving the discussion on. So, Ambassador Gray, [17:17] what we're hearing from the Iranian media, at least, is that this is the last chance to sort out [17:22] a framework. Does that indicate that the talks haven't gone really deeply into some of the really [17:29] substantive issues like uranium enrichment and to what degree and, you know, some of the really big [17:37] issues here? I'd be very surprised if they were able to delve into details on [17:45] issues which, as you point out, are very complicated issues such as enrichment and the like. [17:55] And look how long it took to negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or the JCPOA, [18:03] for example. My guess is that each side gave opening statements where they staked out their position on [18:10] enrichment. But the idea that they'd be able to make any progress on that in just a single day would [18:19] be very surprising to me. Okay. I'd love to continue, but I'm afraid we are out of time. So, [18:27] let me thank our guests. Ambassador Gordon Gray, he's a former ambassador and deputy assistant secretary of [18:33] state for Near Eastern affairs. Mohsen Farhani, professor of foreign policy, media and grassroots [18:40] movements at the University of Asfahan. Thank you both for joining us.