Trump says people in US are ‘concerned’ about petrol prices

[0:00] well that was us president donald trump giving his prime time address at the white house just to [0:06] quickly bring you up to date with uh some of the top lines out of that address he said we are on [0:11] track to complete our military objectives shortly we will hit them incredibly hard over the next two [0:19] to three weeks discussions are ongoing he said regime change he reiterated was not our goal but [0:26] it has happened because we have taken out their leadership completely he said if there is no deal [0:31] we're going to hit all of their electrical plants simultaneously but we won't hit their oil we [0:37] haven't done that yet it would give them no chance of surviving as a country he also went on to say [0:44] that the core strategic military objectives are nearing completion we're going to finish the job [0:49] we're going to finish it very fast and he ended with we have all the cards and they have none [0:56] well we have uh our white house uh chief correspondent as well as a panel of experts [1:02] here to dissect and analyze president donald trump's speech uh thank you very much for staying [1:09] with us i know you're all obviously listening very very intently to all of that i'm going to get uh [1:14] all four of our guests before we come to you ellen to just go through and give us one or two sentences [1:20] about what stood out to you david de roche can we begin with you please sure so there's two things [1:27] the first is that he mentioned he kind of slipped in there that there were unexpected capabilities [1:32] that iran had i expected him to make the case that iran was a regional threat uh he did but then he [1:39] said they have stuff that we knew about but they also had things that we didn't know about and it's [1:44] a good thing we found it so i think that he uh both is acknowledging uh a little bit of a surprise [1:51] which he doesn't normally do but i think he's also laying the groundwork for uh quite possibly [1:55] a longer campaign than he had originally [1:57] said and the second thing i was taken by the fact that he spoke of the simultaneous attacks [2:04] on the electricity grids uh which is something that has been discussed since the opening of [2:10] the campaign uh but i was it was interesting that he hasn't mentioned uh perhaps the reciprocal [2:16] closure of iranian ports and that was something i was looking for okay we'll get into that in [2:22] just a moment harlan what stood out for you the speech was embarrassing depressing [2:29] incoherent and full of contradictions you take out iran's oil you're just going to raise the price [2:35] of oil and gasoline i think iran will be looking at that as a victory speech for them it was a pity [2:41] the president could not lay out his case and tell us what he plans to do taking out iran's [2:46] infrastructure is not the answer and i'm deeply embarrassed and i'm afraid very very unhappy with [2:52] that speech okay ellen fisher our u.s chief correspondent if we can come to you to help dissect [3:00] the city senior minister karim khan [3:06] and get into the details of how things will go over the next seven days [3:11] we have a great conversation today with mr andes wilkins and listen to the [3:15] real story we've been hearing this afternoon and we've heard and heard [3:19] what we've already heard they're obviously very significant but he reiterated what we'd already [3:23] heard from him over the last few days that this was going to continue for at least another few weeks [3:28] of how the allies should now move in and take control of the Strait of Hormuz, but there was [3:33] no mention of that. He said many of the strategic goals have been achieved and over the next couple [3:38] of weeks they were going to continue their bombing. In fact, he said they were going to [3:41] bomb Iran back to the dark ages. He also made the point that he was going to start attacking [3:47] their energy infrastructure if they didn't come up with a deal. And of course, Donald Trump said [3:52] in a Truth Social post early on Wednesday that he thought that they were looking for a ceasefire [3:58] that had been approached and they had asked for a ceasefire. What is interesting is when he said [4:02] of the strategic goals, we never looked for regime change, except when he announced this 32 days ago, [4:08] that was one of the things he talked about. He told the people of Iran it was time to rise up [4:13] and take control of their government. He was actually talking about regime change. And of [4:17] course, over the last few days, he's talked about regime change, saying it was important that they [4:22] were now talking to different people, that the government in Tehran had been replaced with people [4:27] who were not quite as... [4:28] militant or as radical and were much more intelligent, suggesting that he saw someone there [4:34] that he could deal with. But this was a very threatening tone to Iran. And it's clear that this [4:39] operation, Epic Fury, is going to continue for two or three more weeks. He did touch on the economy. [4:45] He did talk about how people were finding prices were much higher. But he said, look, the blame is [4:50] on Iran, not the fact that he started the war. The blame is on Iran because they've threatened [4:55] the Strait of Hormuz. If they weren't doing that, then oil would still be... [4:58] flowing. But it's clear that that is something that is preying on his mind. But we were looking [5:03] for how long does this war take? We think two or three weeks. How does he get out of it? Not [5:08] entirely clear. And what happens to the Strait of Hormuz? He seems to be suggesting it's up to [5:13] other countries to secure that. The United States has done their job. Everyone else should now move [5:18] in and do theirs. [5:19] Yeah, a lack of clarity on many points. Alan Henry, if I can bring you in here now. Do you agree with [5:26] what Alan was saying there, that there was a... [5:28] an incredibly threatening speech? [5:32] It was. And actually, if I can be a bit of a contrarian here, that actually left me with [5:38] some hope. Normally, Donald Trump's rhetorical style is to be really quite threatening right [5:46] before there's some sort of a resolution. So I noticed here that he chose not to speak of [5:54] ground forces and what they might accomplish. That, to me, was a positive. [6:00] The threats to civilian infrastructure was also quite striking, as was the assertion that if the [6:10] shooting stops, if there's a ceasefire, that Hormuz will sort of magically open, right? Because [6:17] everybody will have a motivation to allow that to occur, including the Iranians. So that, to me, [6:25] says that he's still considering the possibility of simply stopping and seeing what every [6:31] everybody else does. I hold that as an actionable possibility. [6:35] Richard, do you think that that is a viable option, though, for Trump, just to walk away after creating so many [6:41] issues here without resolving many, if any, of them? [6:46] Well, I think he would probably like to be able to do so. But, as your other guests have indicated, the [6:53] issue of the Strait of Hormuz clearly was not addressed. There was no way to ensure that global energy [7:01] supplies would continue moving through the Strait. [7:02] Is there any sense for you that they might be able to stop, like, the U.S., because they're not [7:03] going to do that? [7:03] And the question that I have for this is what the U.S. does. Is the U.S. does? Is the U.S. does? [7:03] straight. The idea of us attacking the civilian infrastructure of Iran would be something that [7:11] would alienate the Iranian people for generations from the U.S. So I think the kinds of things that [7:18] he's talking about really don't address the issues that concern us and our allies, and that is how we [7:25] get Iran to change its policies, and how we get the oil flowing again, and how we wind up this [7:32] military action. So I think in a sense, the key issues were really not addressed, so I don't think [7:39] he really helped himself in terms of communicating with the American people. Okay, Alan, if I can [7:44] come back to you just once again. Obviously part of this exercise was to speak directly to the [7:51] American people. That is exactly what a prime time speech is meant to [7:55] do. How do you think that this is going to be received by them, and do you think that will [7:59] allay many of their fears, whether it is over oil prices or markets or potentially ground troops [8:06] going in and putting their lives in danger? Well, funnily enough, I've just been texting [8:10] someone and saying, how do you think this speech will go down? And he said he should have spent [8:16] much more time speaking on the economy. To be honest, ordinary people in the middle of America [8:20] don't care what's happening in the Middle East. They may follow it very tangentially on the news, [8:25] but it's not something that they're going to be able to do. So I think that's going to be a [8:26] challenge for the American people. They want to know what's going to happen to their power prices, [8:32] what's going to happen to their weekly shop. Is it going to get more expensive? And he should have [8:37] spent more time on that. And perhaps the fact that he didn't, it was suggested to me, is the [8:42] fact that he's defensive on this. This was the president who said, one year after I take office, [8:47] your energy bills will be half, gas will be much cheaper, so you'll be able to fill your car [8:51] more often than you do. And he hasn't delivered on that. Here we are, [8:56] 14 months since he took office. And so that is a weakness for him. And that's maybe why he didn't [9:01] spend so much time talking about it. Victories for the military will certainly stir the patriotism [9:07] in most Americans, but it doesn't help put food on the table. And that is the thing most people [9:12] will vote about, are concerned about, and want to hear from the president. [9:17] David, obviously, one of the other major issues is the straight of home news. And it doesn't [9:21] really seem like there was any plan to try and get the oil flowing through there. [9:26] In fact, he said in a message to the U.S. allies, build up some delayed courage, [9:30] go to the straight and just take it and protect it. Use it for yourselves. The hard part is done. [9:36] The rest should be easy. It will just open up naturally. What did you make of those comments? [9:42] And is it really as straightforward and simple as Donald Trump is making out here? [9:45] Well, I think that his remarks about attacking the energy grid and the oil infrastructure are [9:55] directed towards Iran. And the [9:57] requirement to open the straight of home news. I mean, look, what we have here is not, it's kind [10:04] of a military problem, but it's really a problem of crisis confidence in the insurance industry, [10:09] the insurance underwriters. It is so easy and so simple and so low cost to disrupt civilian shipping [10:17] that, you know, militarily to try to stamp that out is very, very hard to do. The only way you [10:25] can really do it is by deterrence. So I think that a lot of people are going to be very, very hard to do. [10:27] So I think that a lot of people are going to be very, very hard to do. The only way you can really do it is by [10:28] a lot of that big stick, a lot of that threat was basically telling Iran, hey, you know, you guys, [10:34] you guys stop this, you're going to get something you really don't want. On the other hand, as I [10:39] foreshadowed his remarks, I think he does want to get the coalition or build a coalition of [10:47] America's traditional partners. He speaks in precisely, I think when he says NATO, [10:53] he doesn't mean the organization in Belgium. He includes like Japan and, [10:57] you know, Australia in that. He means our partners. And he wants them to do more both to relieve the [11:04] burden on U.S. forces and also politically so that he can then turn to the domestic audience and say, [11:11] look, I brought the world with us. America is in its natural leadership role. [11:16] Alan, if I can come back to you once again, just on the U.S. allies and the messaging [11:21] that Trump put forth and talking about NATO and whether that means it's a wider alliance. [11:28] I mean, those are some extremely tough words. Basically, the U.S. has done everything so far and [11:34] it's now up to the rest of you to sort it out. He didn't, though, talk directly about the NATO [11:41] alliance because in the lead up to it, we did, we had heard him multiple times denouncing the [11:48] organization, potentially pulling out of the alliance. Well, a couple of things. He can't. [11:54] I mean, he can't pull out of the NATO alliance unilaterally. He would have to get two thirds [11:58] of the NATO alliance unilaterally. He would have to get two thirds of the NATO alliance unilaterally. [11:59] Of the Senate to agree. That's the thing that was introduced in the Senate in 2023. [12:04] And actually, the senator that introduced it is now his secretary of state to stop any president [12:08] unilaterally drawing the United States out of one of the oldest military alliances in the world. [12:14] Also, he's goading, he's trying to goad his allies into doing something in the [12:19] Strait of Hormuz, saying, look, we've got plenty of oil. We don't need to come through the Strait [12:24] of Hormuz. But it's clearly something that has concerned them. And it also, as someone has [12:28] pointed out, is that the U.S. allies are trying to goad their allies into doing something in the [12:28] Strait of Hormuz. And it's clearly something that has concerned them. And it also, as someone has [12:28] pointed out to me, shows a lack of strategy. We were told that, of course, they knew that the [12:33] Iranians would target the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, they knew they would make that a choke [12:37] point. And of course, they had something that they could help to deal with it. But as it goes on day [12:43] after day after day, it proves that actually the United States doesn't. They don't know quite how [12:48] to handle this. And so for all the military planning that's going on, that's not something [12:53] that seems to have been top of mind. It's not something that they thought would be a serious [12:58] threat. And so for all the military planning that's going on, that's not something that seems to have [12:58] been top of mind. And so Donald Trump trying to goad his rivals into helping the rest of the [13:02] world, there is some truth in the fact that the United States is not dependent on the oil that [13:07] comes through there. But they also need other things that comes through there. They need things [13:11] like agriculture, fertilizer that comes through there. They also need things like rare earth [13:17] minerals that come through there. So it's not just oil that passes through there. There are many [13:21] other things. And that hits the U.S. economy. So while he says that the U.S. could walk away, [13:26] they really can't. And they've got to do something. [13:28] They've got to help get the Strait of Hormuz open again if they're to see, if they're not to see a [13:35] long-term impact on the United States economy. Okay. President Trump addressed Iran's closure [13:41] of the Strait of Hormuz by saying other countries should take advantage of U.S. strikes on Iran and [13:46] come and take the oil there, while also adding that the Strait will open up on its own. [13:53] The countries of the world that do receive oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of [13:58] that passage. They must cherish it. [14:00] They must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take [14:08] the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on. So to those countries that [14:13] can't get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, we had to do [14:20] it ourselves. I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have [14:26] plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed current and build up some delayed [14:30] current and build up some delayed current and build up some delayed current. And number two, build up [14:30] should have done it before should have done it with us as we asked go to the [14:35] straight and just take it protect it use it for yourselves Iran has been [14:40] essentially decimated the hard part is done so it should be easy and in any [14:47] event when this conflict is over the straight will open up naturally it'll [14:52] just open up naturally okay we're gonna go back to our panel of experts now [14:57] Henry if I can bring you in to discuss what we heard from from Donald Trump [15:01] they're basically putting the burden now on on US allies that need the oil to [15:07] go through the Strait of Hormuz go in and take it what did you make of that [15:11] and and given what we have heard from so many of them and their their disdain not [15:16] their disdain their their rejection of getting involved in this conflict that [15:22] that is highly unlikely to happen well I think sooner or later their pragmatism [15:30] will overcome their sense of upset [15:33] I think sooner or later their pragmatism will overcome their sense of upset as [15:33] not having been consulted before the war started and they will recognize that [15:39] that that they have a higher stake in the security of the Strait of Hormuz [15:45] then the US does I think that's a fact so I suspect it ultimately sometime in [15:52] the next couple of weeks there will form a coalition there will be some kind of [15:56] an arrangement with Iran and the Strait will move toward reopening again every [16:03] everybody needs it to reopen everybody is including Iran is just trying to get [16:08] the the best possible deal you know Iran is already amply demonstrated for the [16:14] reasons cited by one of the other panelists that it controls the Strait of [16:18] Hormuz and it can turn it on and off anytime it wants I will say that if the [16:26] US stops shooting at Iran then the pressure will shift to Iran to do the same thing [16:33] and all the international pressure being focused on the US will be somewhat shifted to Iran and [16:40] then finally I just wanted to point out you know what Iran is not going to change and it's it's good [16:46] I guess that the president thinks that the current leadership whoever that is is more reasonable but [16:53] the Iranian Empire has been roughly the same and has engaged in the same type of [16:59] behavior literally for thousands of years and I actually think it's possible that these guys [17:03] who were raised up in the very ideological fanatical Iranian Islamic Republic are going [17:11] to be worse than the previous guys except maybe more competent so um not so optimistic on that [17:18] front if I may not not as optimistic as Trump was uh in that speech uh Richard if I can bring you in [17:24] uh on on all of this now just on the fact that Trump seems to believe that he will be able to [17:31] walk away from the Strait of Hormuz and [17:33] it will sort itself out what do you make of that well first of all I think it's very clear that the [17:42] American public has learned a great deal about the Strait of Hormuz in the last month and it is true [17:50] that the American public understands that the US does not get much oil or gas for that matter from [17:57] the Strait although American farmers are very aware that they get most of their fertilizer [18:03] coming through the Strait [18:06] we also have seen that disruptions of energy coming through the Strait has caused U.S energy [18:13] costs to go through the roof so there is a connection between the Strait being closed and [18:19] the cost to Americans so even if President Trump wants to say that whether the Strait is open or [18:26] closed is indifferent to us the American people realize that's not the case but I think along with [18:33] what Henry was saying if we can get to some kind of [18:36] a ceasefire and end to the hostilities then I do think we will get to the point where something can [18:43] be arranged to allow shipping again to the Strait but the wild card might be Israel because Israel [18:49] has indicated that it has other goals that it is still seeking so that even if the US declares that [18:56] its goals are met it's not clear that Israel will agree that its goals are met indeed we'll get to [19:03] Israel in just a moment uh David but if I can just [19:06] keep talking about this has anything actually changed with uh President Trump's speech I mean [19:14] he didn't announce any ground troops there was no coalition you know announcement to go in and and [19:20] take control of of the Strait of Hormuz his timeline is effectively the same as as what he's [19:26] been saying over the last few days yeah no he didn't announce any initiative but but he is [19:33] speaking you know to three audiences so to to the American public which is [19:38] very impatient when it comes to Wars we expect our Wars to be quick successful and uh bloodless [19:44] on our side at least uh he to to them he said we're making progress we're going to achieve our [19:50] aims we're dealing with a difficult uh uh problem that uh every president for the last 50 years [19:57] hasn't faced up to only I have the guts to do it to the Iranians he said you've had your fun [20:04] um we have a lot more uh where this came from and [20:08] we we are we have been holding back if you don't uh come around you're going to get something you [20:14] really don't want and then to the Europeans he basically Europeans are allies and partners he [20:21] said you know you guys need to get in the game too this don't expect us to solve all your problems [20:27] for you you didn't have the guts to solve the security problem we're taking care of that but [20:32] the economic problems are yours not really ours and you're going to have to deal with it yourself [20:39] that uh President Trump said he again claimed that the deaths of Iranian leaders constituted [20:44] a change to the country's regime and reiterated his threat against around civilian electrical [20:49] Network if Iran does not make a deal with the U.S here's what he said on that regime change was not [20:57] our goal we never said regime change but regime change has occurred because of all of their [21:10] radical and much more reasonable yet if during this period of time no deal is made we have our [21:16] eyes on key targets if there is no deal we are going to hit each and every one of their electric [21:23] generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously Henry if I can come back to [21:29] you uh on this uh I I think I saw you shaking your head as you were listening to Donald Trump's [21:35] comments there what did you make of that look I I'm not I'm not sure where he's getting the idea [21:41] that that the successor generation [21:43] is going to be less radical um I I think it's far more likely that they'll be more radical and and [21:50] also in a transition moment like the Iranian regime is experiencing right now it's the more [21:56] radical who tend to win out because if somebody it wants to argue that oh it's time to make a deal [22:02] with the Americans uh that person will be immediately called out and and brutalized [22:08] and possibly killed um as a traitor therefore in Iranian political [22:13] terms I suspect it's far better for survival purposes to be more extreme right now which [22:20] will make it more difficult I think um to get to a deal and uh will I think drive them to move [22:28] faster to re-establish their position uh when the war uh does in fact end so uh sorry for the [22:36] head shaking but that's where I I it's that's what strikes me that the idea that these guys are going [22:43] to you know come up and be um reasonable and see the light that's the least likely outcome hey these [22:50] guys just murdered 40 000 of their own people back in January had no problem doing that so [22:55] that's what they are okay Harlan if I can bring bring you in yeah I can bring you in on this I [23:01] know I can see you wanting to jump in what do you have to add well first of all the Strait of [23:08] Hormuz is not exactly closed which you may not know is the module just approved a plan called [23:15] the column last week saying how do you open the Strait it'll be about a trillion dollars so I [23:20] think what's going to happen is that there'll be some kind of agreement there already talks with [23:24] Pakistan India who are allowing their ships to get through so I think they're going to be payoffs but [23:29] I think something else that we need to realize Trump's speech was remarkably fact free he talked [23:36] about how brilliantly the military did and the military did but compared to Desert Storm in 1991 [23:42] in Iraqi Freedom in 2003 our military [23:46] is far far better so the comparisons are really not uh to me seemingly worthwhile uh there is no [23:54] existential threat Iran was a long way from making long-range rockets and even though they had 60 [24:00] enriched uranium and possibly 900 pounds they were not very very close to making a bomb and even if [24:07] they did the bombs would be too massive to be able to be transported um I think that the issue here [24:14] is that Trump is probably paving his way [24:16] for an extrication strategy but one thing that I will say is virtually certain Iran will develop [24:23] a nuclear weapon over time and this is causing an existential problem from Israel the dilemma that [24:30] we faced was that our engagement in Iran in my mind was not existential it is existential for [24:36] Israel so what is Israel going to do now that it seems to me inevitable whether it takes 10 [24:42] or 20 years Iran is very likely to develop a bomb even if we back out what does the [24:47] Israelis do that's going to be a major point of contention for which I do not have a very good [24:52] answer as to how to solve no Richard if I can bring you on in on this point obviously uh many [24:57] countries around the world will be watching very closely to Donald Trump's remarks no doubt no one [25:03] closer than Benjamin Netanyahu how do you think that he is going to assess uh Trump's speaking [25:09] there and and what will worry him most well I think uh the potential that Trump would make a [25:17] decision to end U.S military [25:19] engagement is something that he would not want to see because it is seems clear that Israel wants [25:27] to continue to do a lot more military damage to Iran I think in fact Israel would be more prepared [25:35] than the U.S to really begin to strike critical infrastructure in order to really set back Iran's [25:43] ability to recover and and to reconstitute any of its military activity that's not [25:49] something the U.S has wanted to do so we'll have to see if Israel does take that kind of course in [25:55] particular if President Trump does end our military engagement say in the next couple of weeks so I [26:02] don't think he was probably pleased to to see the idea that we might be standing down there was no [26:09] mention of ground forces so in that sense it doesn't seem like it would be the kind of speech [26:19] that's going to stay in this for the longer haul to help Israel reach its goals yeah David if I can [26:25] bring you in on this how aligned do you think that the U.S and Israel are on what needs still needs to [26:31] be achieved here well I think militarily the U.S and Israel are pretty much in lockstep but I think [26:38] politically as Ambassador Schmierer said um there are different political objectives here I I think [26:45] uh it might be instructive to look at the case of Syria where once the Bashar al-Assad regime [26:51] fell the United States just said okay there's a new guy let's find a way to work with him Israel [26:56] on the other hand said yeah this guy may be a good guy he may not be a good guy but you know he's just [27:01] one guy and they launched on a protracted campaign to ensure they destroyed you know any aircraft any [27:08] artillery piece they could find to ensure that Syria would never in the near future pose a threat [27:14] to Israel I think we'll see the same thing in Iran I think that President Trump is content to [27:20] to [27:21] do what he said which is just remove uh Iran's ability to reach out and uh harass and and attack [27:28] its neighbors and then I think he has confidence that maximum pressure and economic power will lead [27:34] to a lasting regime change from within Iran uh Israel doesn't want to wait for that I think they [27:41] want to uh uh get rid of the regime on their own so uh we don't have a schism yet but once military [27:49] success is achieved I think we'll see one thing I think we'll see one thing I think we'll see one thing [27:51] one okay we're going to bring in a Rob McBride now he's been following developments uh for us from [27:56] the Jordanian capital uh Arman uh Rob can you just uh first of all give us an idea how you think and [28:03] how the Israelis will perceive Donald Trump's comments tonight yeah I think reaction will be [28:13] fairly mixed from Israel I think one of the main concerns going into this was all of the talk about [28:19] some sort of uh back uh back Channel deal or even a ceasefire suddenly being declared [28:25] that was of real concern to Benjamin Netanyahu to the Israeli uh coalition in government at the [28:32] moment that the U.S allies might suddenly declare a ceasefire there would be all sorts of pressure [28:37] then on Israel to do likewise even worse for Israel would be that if some sort of deal had [28:45] been done there may have been some condition placed on the ceasefire coming into effect or [28:51] some deal coming into effect which was meant to protect Hezbollah [28:55] that Israel would have to give up its uh gaining momentum offensive in southern Lebanon which in [29:03] some respects is now more of its focus is it it looks ahead as uh as uh it looks to to directing [29:11] its resources which aren't limitless uh into southern Lebanon rather than Iran itself um so [29:18] there is a I suppose a slight relief that they're not talking about any a ceasefire that for the [29:25] next couple of weeks at least the U.S is talking about continuing this intensive air campaign that [29:32] seems to fit with Israel's timetable we heard from Netanyahu a few days ago in an interview with a U.S [29:40] network that he was just in his reckoning just about just over halfway through their list of [29:46] targets other spokespeople for the Israeli military have said that they're into the [29:51] conclusion phase they've only got a few days to go [29:55] weeks of an intensive air campaign would seem to fit with Israel's timetable as it stands at the [30:02] moment what happens after that if there is some kind of agreement that might require Israel to [30:07] desist to pull back to stop its attacks on Iran under U.S pressure well that that's uh that's [30:15] another concern but for the next couple of weeks at least uh so far so good okay thanks so much uh [30:21] for that uh Rob Rob McBride for us in Amman we're going to go to Muhammad Val who is in Tehran for [30:26] us and as we heard Donald Trump repeated his threats to strike Iran's energy infrastructure [30:30] if it did not reach a deal is that likely though these these latest threats likely to get Iran to [30:38] negotiate well the likelihood that this is going to uh force Iranians to negotiate is slim I think [30:49] because none of what he said tonight is new to the Iranians the same [30:54] threats the same uh types of ideas and and rhetoric against Iran uh that's what he said in [31:02] this uh in this uh speech tonight and for Iranians there is nothing almost nothing new in this uh uh [31:09] in this speech and for them they will continue also the same type of rhetoric uh they will [31:15] continue to focus on the military defense on the military retaliations and they will continue to [31:21] say that there are no negotiations because none of what he said tonight is going to [31:25] encourage them to change their stance towards this war to the contrary I think the leaders here will [31:32] say look this is what we told you there is nothing that he is going to put on the table of of anything [31:38] concrete and tangible for the Iranians to um to make them change the way they are approaching [31:44] this war and that's I think that's what what the leaders here are going to to say regarding this [31:49] speech there is no offer there on the table there is no new offer except that call for a [31:55] which is unclear to the Iranians because they haven't seen any willingness to compromise for [32:01] compromise on the part of the Americans regarding the five demands by the Iranians and those 15 [32:06] points by the Americans the gap is still very wide between the two sides and there is no revelation [32:12] for Iranians in this speech there is the same rhetoric the same threats to uh bomb Iran back [32:19] into the Stone Age where Iran belongs that's going to be very vexing to the leaders here and to also [32:25] the intersection of the Iranian people who are not necessarily against or pro-government because [32:30] the majority of Iranians will be fearing the consequences of of what Trump said tonight if [32:36] he's going to follow it with action if he's going to obliterate the uh water and particularly the [32:44] energy facilities that's going to punish the entire 90 million Iranians and those who have [32:49] some who had who have had some expectation or hope that this war is going to liberate them tonight [32:56] remain about their convictions and they will say no this is something that is going to touch us our [33:01] families our children our future this is this discourse this um the discourse contained in [33:07] this speech tonight is going to be used by uh Iranian leaders to say to the Iranian people look [33:12] you you don't have anything to hope for from the Americans at this stage thank you so much for that [33:18] update Muhammad Val for us with the view from Tehran U.S president Donald Trump said the next [33:25] two weeks of attacks on Iran will be severe [33:27] thanks to the progress we've made I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all [33:35] of America's military objectives shortly very shortly we're going to hit them extremely hard [33:41] over the next two to three weeks we're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong [33:48] okay I'm going to bring our guests back in David if I can come back to you on this uh what is there [33:55] left for the U.S and Israel to actually hit because in the hours before Donald [34:00] Trump spoke we heard from Central Command U.S Central Command that there had been 13 000 combat [34:07] flights and that had 12 000 targets yeah uh good question so some targets need to be hit several [34:14] times but you're right you get on one of the problems with aerial bombardment at one point [34:19] in the Korean War um the uh Air Force commander was asked can you what can you do to help us and [34:26] he said I can make the rubble bounce we're not at that point yet um a lot of the attacks have been [34:32] against regime officials who are moving targets and of course um you know Iran is a modern state [34:37] so if one person uh is is killed another person moves up and then he can become targeted uh we've [34:44] also seen uh an evolution from the tactical necessity of destroying the air defense Network [34:50] and President Trump made a point of saying that the air defense Network is history and I think [34:55] he's correct on that towards uh ballistic missile sites storage sites moving up the uh [35:02] side chain for ballistic missiles to things like uh the factories that make the motors the warheads [35:08] uh to the steel mills that make the bodies of the missiles things of that nature so there there are [35:14] still a number of targets increasingly you get towards dual use technology a factory that produces [35:22] a military product but also produces a civilian product that's where it starts to get problematic [35:28] um but we haven't yet seen uh uh extensive [35:32] counter-value targeting where you you get it you know just purely economic targets like right [35:37] uh the fuel infrastructure the way Iran is targeted the gcc says okay Harlem we've got a couple of [35:44] minutes left uh of this discussion what would you be looking at to happen over the next couple of [35:50] weeks and how dangerous is it if after two or three more weeks of this bombing campaign the [35:55] U.S walks away let me make the three points first there are a large number of underground factories [36:03] that make drones and missiles that have not been touched and Central Command has not necessarily [36:08] been candid about that about the Iranian Air Force and Navy it really didn't have one the Iranians [36:14] were still flying F-14 Tomcats that Tom Cruise flew in the first Maverick uh movie second Trump [36:22] did not mention talks remember how positive he was that talks were making great progress [36:26] the fact that he made no mention is probably going to alienate the die-hard mega base who said you [36:33] are doing about this and if I had to make a guess by week's end oil will be 120 a barrel that will [36:40] mark the success or failure of Trump's attempt to sell the American people on the war through [36:46] the speech tonight okay Henry uh just very quickly before before we go your final thoughts when when [36:55] the the U.S do pull out what sort of mess do you expect them to leave behind a big one uh you're [37:03] going to have a really very angry um Iranian [37:07] team uh to deal with um if the Israelis succeed in getting what they want you have a high potential [37:14] for chaos uh in that landmass which none of the neighbors want um and that's why I actually think [37:20] the Pakistanis are so deeply involved because they know that Iran is an empire and it can come [37:25] unglued and then secondly or lastly I guess I would say quite right and the Iranians have [37:31] nuclear ambitions now they've they've learned if you don't want to be invaded get the bomb