Trump says extension of Iran ceasefire is ‘highly unlikely’

[0:00] President Trump says a potential deal with Iran would be, quote, far better than former [0:04] President Obama's 2015 agreement. But there's a catch. He needs to get Tehran back to the [0:10] negotiating table. Today, in an interview with Bloomberg, Trump said it's highly unlikely that [0:15] he would extend the truce with Iran before it expires on Wednesday evening. Sources tell CNN [0:20] Vice President J.D. Vance is set to travel to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks, [0:24] but Tehran says it has no plans to participate. In fact, the regime is vowing retaliation after [0:31] American forces fired on and seized an Iranian flag cargo ship known as the Tosca after it tried [0:37] to bypass the U.S. blockade. U.S. Central Command sharing this video you see here of yesterday's [0:43] operation, which shows U.S. Marines on helicopters rappelling down and boarding the ship. CNN's [0:50] Nick Robertson is live for us from Islamabad in Pakistan. Nick, it is unclear if this new round [0:56] of talks is actually even going to happen. What are you hearing? Yeah, I think at the moment the [1:04] struggle to get the Iranians to commit to come to the table is going to be about as big an effort as [1:10] it will be then should they get to the table to try to bring agreement around the table. I think [1:15] there's real hope, certainly from the mediators, from Pakistan's perspective, that if they can get [1:21] Iran to the table, J.D. Vance, Steve Wyckoff, Jared Kushner, when they arrive in Pakistan, [1:27] if the Iranians can get to the table, then the mediators really feel that there is a deal that [1:34] can be done. So I think in that context, there's some positivity. In the background, of course, [1:39] there is diplomacy going on, trying to reach out to the Iranians, trying to convince them to come, [1:44] conversations, obviously, between Pakistani and U.S. officials at various different levels. But at [1:52] the moment, the core issue for the Iranians really is the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, when Pakistan's [1:59] sort of top negotiator, who was also the most powerful man in the country, Phil Marshall, [2:03] Asim Muneer, was in Tehran, there was a real sort of series of confidence-building measures going on. [2:08] You had the ceasefire in Lebanon. You had the Iranians opening up the Strait of Hormuz. [2:12] They got disappointed when President Trump decided to keep the U.S. closure of the Strait of Hormuz in [2:17] place. The Iranians fired on ships. The United States overnight fired, as you were mentioning, [2:23] on that Iranian tanker. That's sort of given the hardliners in Iran over the past 48 hours [2:29] a much sort of stronger messaging than they had previously. But the lead negotiator, Galibaf, [2:37] who's the speaker in the Iranian parliament, is still seen as a key interlocutor. If he can and does [2:47] come to Pakistan, that he can sit at the table and with sort of authority have that serious [2:55] negotiation across the table. So at the moment, everyone here is waiting for the Iranians to signal [3:02] they're coming. You know, it could come late tonight. It could come early tomorrow morning. [3:07] But obviously, if it doesn't come sort of by the middle of the day or early afternoon local time [3:11] tomorrow, then therefore, what would be the point of J.D. Vance getting on a plane and coming here? [3:17] So I think that's the sort of time frame we're looking into here. Of course, this city is ready. [3:22] Security is in place. Hotels are ready, vacated, ready for the two teams to come in. [3:28] The talks venues all sorted, super secure around there. I was down there in that area today. [3:33] So it's all set and ready to go. It's waiting on the Iranians. And can they be convinced to come? [3:39] I think the hope is the answer is yes. But until they sign on, it's still a guess. [3:45] Yeah, certainly is. Nick Robertson, thank you for the very latest. Omar? [3:49] Let's talk about this more with retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Layton. [3:52] So, look, I just want to start with the Strait of Hormuz. It's largely deserted at this point [4:00] in terms of that main portion. What current threats do ships looking to pass through face here? [4:08] Omar, some of the threats include the mines, obviously, the possible mines that the Iranians [4:18] may have dispersed. But they're also looking at the mine laying aircraft ship craft that are there. [4:26] The vessels that they use are vessels that have not only speed, but also they're small enough that [4:33] they actually go outside of the bounds of a lot of what the Navy sees on the U.S. Navy would see on [4:40] their radars, for example. So they've got these fast boats that the Iranians have. They've got mines. [4:46] They've got shore batteries that they could potentially use. And they've got missiles. [4:51] So the Iranians have this panoply of things that they could potentially use against any type of [4:57] shipping that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. And the way the Iranians have described it, [5:03] they only want ships to go through the channels that they've approved, [5:06] not the previously used international channels. [5:09] And, you know, as we typically see in wars and conflicts like these, obviously, [5:14] what happens on the battlefield, what happens kinetic-wise militarily, [5:18] affects or impacts what happens on the diplomatic side of things in terms of leverage, [5:22] what's discussed, things like that. And as the U.S. works towards a second round of talks with Iran, [5:28] has the blockade and the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, for example, [5:32] removed any cards from Iran's negotiating table? How do you see the U.S. actions having impacted [5:38] what they can offer? [5:42] Yeah, so that's a very interesting question, Omar. When you look at the U.S. blockade [5:46] against Iranian shipping, that blockade is actually a fairly significant development, [5:52] because what it's doing is it's constraining Iran's freedom of movement and the Iranian ability to [5:58] not only move their ships, but also to have cargo come in and out of the country. So that affects [6:04] their ability to gain revenue from oil sales, for example. When it comes to the Lebanon aspect, [6:10] the idea that there is a ceasefire of sorts between the Israelis and Lebanon, that is a positive [6:19] thing. That's seen as a positive thing also by Iran. So as far as the cards that Iran has, [6:24] the U.S. blockade has removed at least one card from the Iranian deck. But the ceasefire with [6:30] Lebanon actually goes in Iran's favor. And it's part of really the mix that Iran wants to achieve [6:37] in this particular case. [6:38] So I want to bring in Ian Bremmer. He's the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. [6:42] Thanks for taking the time. Good to see you. Look, usually it's the details of any ceasefire [6:47] negotiations that are the sticking points. And here we've got Iranian officials saying there are no [6:52] immediate plans for a second round of talks. Yet the latest reporting is Vance is expected to head [6:57] there for a second round of talks at Pakistan. Is this just posturing? What do you make of this [7:02] dynamic? Probably in the sense that there's good reason for the Iranians to want the ceasefire to [7:09] hold. They're also trying to show that they have more leverage. They want this to be the Americans [7:17] requesting the Iranians to have talks. They don't like the Americans acting like they have all the [7:24] cards. Certainly the biggest moves over the last few days has been the U.S. imposing the blockade [7:30] and then boarding an Iranian ship after firing on it. So the latest rounds of escalation have been [7:38] more on the U.S. side than on the Iranian side. I see this as Iran looking to have more influence [7:45] before talks occur. But I would be surprised if the talks fell apart before they happen. [7:50] So let's assume, let's go with that. Let's assume the second round of talks materializes. [7:55] That's what we end up seeing this week. Where do you believe realistically these talks could [8:00] actually end up? Because a lot of the discussion is just over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That [8:05] doesn't really get to the root of sort of nuclear proliferation, uranium enrichment levels. We sort of [8:12] feel a long way from that. But do you think that that could even be included in this next round? [8:17] So there are a number of issues of potential conflict here that have been taken off the table. [8:24] Regime change. Trump has basically said wasn't a goal and it's already a new regime. Don't need to [8:29] worry about that. Ballistic missiles. A big demand of the Israelis and the Gulf states. Trump has [8:35] privately told Gulf leaders that should be an issue that's discussed by the regional conflict, [8:40] by the regional parties. We're not going to have that as part of our negotiation. [8:44] Iranian support for proxies. America hasn't been engaged in that issue either. So several of the [8:51] in principle war demands are not even necessary for the Iranians to engage with to get to yes. [8:59] That leaves the issue of transit of the Strait and nuclear material. Nuclear material has been [9:07] really where most of the energy has been used in the first round of talks. And there's been movement [9:13] by both sides. It looks like the Iranians are prepared to accept, at least in principle, that all of the [9:21] stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium would be removed from Iran. And exactly where it would go and [9:29] whether it's, you know, sort of what territory and how that would be done, those are details that need to be [9:35] worked out. But in principle, it would go away. It doesn't require the Americans to militarily go in [9:40] and take them. Then there's the question of ongoing enrichment. The Americans are saying there can be [9:46] no ongoing enrichment for 20 years. The Iranians appear to be willing to accept that as opposed to [9:52] the old Obama deal, which had some lower level enrichment that the Iranians could engage in. [9:58] But then for how long? And the Americans are saying 20 years. The Iranians, depending on what day [10:03] you're talking to them and who's engaged in the talks, three years, five years, 10 years. But [10:08] there's been movement there. And that's an area you could see some agreement. So the idea that there's [10:14] been, you know, that these two sides are super far apart, they're actually much closer than you would [10:19] have expect when back when the Americans broke off the negotiations and the supreme leader and many [10:28] other leaders were assassinated. Yeah. You know, you know, there's a while all of this is happening, [10:33] there are a lot of places around the world sort of making contingency plans for for lesser at the [10:37] very least least at the very least more expensive fuel while this is going on. And one part of the [10:42] world in particular is China, almost 40 percent of the oil that typically passes with the straight [10:47] heads to Chinese ports. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping obviously calling for the straight to reopen. [10:52] They're not quite as affected in the day to day in terms of worrying about fuel shortages. But I just [11:00] wonder, what do you see as China's influence here or their role on the side of these talks? [11:05] Not all that much. The Chinese and the Pakistanis a few weeks ago announced this five point plan [11:16] to clear out the conflict in the straight. And then the Chinese backed away from it. You have seen [11:22] Chinese leadership talk about four overarching principles, talking about sovereignty and security, [11:28] mutual respect for the territorial integrity of all of these countries. But you would not say that [11:35] they are playing an active role in the negotiations the way Pakistan is. And I think a big part of that [11:42] is the Chinese not wanting responsibility for talks that they feel have a good chance of ultimately not [11:49] leading to an implemented deal. So yes, they of course want to see the straits cleared up. And they're [11:57] not as affected economically as many other countries are, specifically in Asia, because their stockpiles [12:02] are so much greater, their reserves are so much greater than many of these countries are. They're not [12:07] going to run out of core commodities in the coming weeks the way we might see in many other countries in [12:13] Asia, Southeast Asia and around the world. But I don't see the Chinese at this point playing a fundamental [12:21] role in bringing the conflict to a close.