Trump on Iran Deal: “No Nuclear Weapons” , What It Means?

[0:00] or the straight, as they call it. [0:02] And I think it's going to go pretty quickly. [0:04] And if it doesn't, we'll be able to finish it off [0:06] one way or the other. [0:08] It's going well. [0:09] The Navy's gone, the Air Force is gone, [0:13] all anti-aircraft is gone, the leaders are gone, [0:16] the whole place is gone. [0:17] So we'll see how it turns out. [0:19] So it's J.D., it's Steve, and Jared. [0:22] They have a good team, and they meet tomorrow. [0:24] We'll see how it all works. [0:29] No, we're not going to let that. [0:30] It's international order. [0:31] If they're doing that, nobody knows if they're doing that. [0:33] But if they're doing that, we're not going to let that happen. [0:35] What would a good deal look like for you? [0:39] No nuclear weapon, number one. [0:42] You know, I think it's already been regime change, [0:44] but we never had that as a criteria. [0:47] No nuclear weapon. [0:48] That's 99% of us. [0:53] Yeah, but that'll open up automatically. [0:55] Yeah, the answer is yes. [0:56] But the straight will open up. [0:58] If we just left, the straight's going to, [1:00] otherwise they make no money. [1:02] So the straight's going to open. [1:03] But what we have is no nuclear weapon, [1:05] but we'll open the straight anyway. [1:07] Don't forget, we don't use the straight. [1:09] Other countries use the straight. [1:11] So we do have other countries coming up, [1:13] and they'll help out. [1:15] But we don't use it. [1:17] It won't be easy. [1:18] It won't be. [1:19] I would say this. [1:21] We will have that open fairly soon. [1:23] What's your backup plan? [1:25] Excuse me? [1:26] What's your backup plan if there's no deal with this? [1:28] You don't need a backup plan. [1:30] We have, the military is defeated. [1:32] Their military is gone. [1:34] They have, you know, we've degraded just about everything. [1:37] They have very few missiles. [1:38] They have very little manufacturing capability. [1:42] We've hit them hard. [1:43] Our military is amazing, the job they've done. [1:45] Sorry, is this a one and done talk? [1:48] Are you open to more talks afterwards? [1:50] I don't know. [1:51] I can't tell you. [1:52] I have to see what happens tomorrow. [1:53] They're, they've been talking for 47 years with other presidents, [1:58] and we're not doing much talking. [2:00] Thank you very much. [2:01] Thank you. [2:06] We're listening there to the US president saying the Navy's gone, the whole place is gone. [2:11] And then he outlined in an answer to a reporter's question of what will constitute a good deal. [2:17] And he said no nuclear weapons. [2:19] That's 99% of it. [2:21] About the Straits of Hormuz, he said it'll open up automatically and that that will happen very soon. [2:27] Asked if he has a backup plan. [2:30] He said you don't need a backup plan. [2:32] Well, let's bring in our guest to discuss this. [2:36] We have joining us from the Iranian capital, Zohreh Kharazmi. [2:40] She's an associate professor at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran. [2:47] And Henry Encher, he's a former US ambassador and deputy assistant secretary of state. [2:53] He's in San Diego. [2:54] If I could start with deputy assistant secretary, former deputy assistant secretary Henry. [3:01] Listening to those statements by Donald Trump, have the American demands dropped to simply a guarantee of no nuclear weapons? [3:15] Man, that sure sounded like it, didn't it? [3:17] I mean, when he says 99% of it is no nuclear weapons, that seems pretty clear. [3:25] I'll also point out that that gives up the question of nuclear enrichment, okay? [3:30] If it just means no weapons, well, the Iranians actually have already agreed to that, you know, some time ago. [3:36] But if he really means enrichment, then there might be some negotiations. [3:41] When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, yeah, the president is now back to the idea of if we are not in conflict anymore, [3:49] that the Strait of Hormuz will take care of itself for commercial reasons. [3:52] So he really has boiled it down to end the conflict and no nuclear weapons. [4:00] That's what I heard. [4:01] That can always change. [4:03] You're absolutely right. [4:04] That could always change. [4:06] But Zohreh in Tehran, listening to that statement, do you think Iranian officials will be listening to that going, [4:13] well, if, as Henry said, if that is the U.S. position, this is, it's very easy to make a deal, [4:22] if it's just a question of no nuclear weapons. [4:28] Actually, if you refer back to the American intelligence community's report, [4:37] actually, that was published one year ago, [4:40] and they well knew that there was no nuclear weapons in Iran [4:45] and there was no program to develop it. [4:48] And also they confirmed that Iranian leaders have got no decisions to develop such a program. [4:55] So I think that talking about no nuclear weapons is just giving actually a false flag by Trump. [5:03] And this is not the case that Trump is looking for here. [5:06] And talking about Hormuz, of course, Americans are dying to make it open, [5:12] but Iran is really firm to establish a new security paradigm in Hormuz [5:16] and was very much successful to do so. [5:19] So I think that Trump is trying to tuck down the prices of energy with these sorts of words, [5:24] but he is a serial liar and everybody knows that he couldn't do so. [5:30] And always talking about few days that Hormuz would be open. [5:34] And the market, I think, has got this message that they can't do so without satisfying Iran [5:41] with actually accounting for its terms and conditions. [5:46] OK, let's take that point up. [5:48] I guess, Henry, then, the question is, you know, again, [5:53] assuming that what Donald Trump said is what it sounds like, [5:57] that 99% of the U.S. demand is now simply no nuclear weapons, [6:02] what about the Iranian demands and how far do you think the U.S. will be willing to go on things like [6:07] they want compensation, they want to see guarantees, some kind of guarantees, [6:14] that the U.S. and Israel does not start another war and attack the country [6:19] in what, you know, the U.N. Secretary General framed as a violation of the charter. [6:25] They maybe want certain arrangements that continue to give them, if not control, [6:32] and the ability to charge on the Straits of Hormuz and so on. [6:38] So, you know, among the other things that I've done in my career, [6:42] at one point I was on the negotiating team with the Taliban [6:45] when President Trump was negotiating a withdrawal from Afghanistan. [6:50] And what I observed there is that he tends to focus on one or two items, and that's it. [6:56] Everything else is a detail, and he's prepared to give way on. [7:01] I think I can see linkage between some of the Iranian demands. [7:06] For example, if we're talking about reparations on the one hand [7:09] and control of the Hormuz on the other, that's okay. [7:13] I mean, I've heard the professor say a new security paradigm. [7:17] What I hear is a toll booth, which will enable the Iranians to charge international shippers [7:25] a fee for passing through what is now an international waterway. [7:29] So that would be a real plus for Iran and a real negative for the international community. [7:36] A guarantee? [7:37] Sure, why not? [7:39] You know, people, governments say things all the time, [7:41] and there is no such thing as a guarantee until the circumstances arrive. [7:47] When it comes to sanctions relief, release of assets, [7:53] I think all of that strikes me as completely possible. [7:56] The United States has done that before, [7:59] and I'll point out that even this president, in the middle of the war, [8:03] gave Iran back $14 billion worth of oil. [8:07] Quite remarkable. [8:09] Oh, and by the way, when it comes to the negotiations, [8:12] we, I mean the United States, has already agreed to work from Iran's agenda. [8:17] This is contrary to all diplomatic practice. [8:22] Henry, wouldn't that be seen, very briefly, wouldn't that be seen domestically in the U.S. [8:26] as a huge defeat or at least setback for the U.S. position? [8:31] Remember, they went into talks in Oman before the war, [8:34] demanding a whole bunch of other things, stopping enrichment, [8:37] shutting down the missile programs, cutting their ties with their allies. [8:41] And now the position is just simply give us what you've already said you're willing to do, [8:48] and we'll call it quits. [8:52] Yeah, pretty remarkable, isn't it? [8:54] Look, I hate to say this, given my former profession, but you know what? [9:00] The American public does not care about foreign policy. [9:04] It cares about the domestic economy and prices, [9:08] and it cares if Americans are being killed. [9:12] If neither of those two things are happening, it doesn't care. [9:16] Zoray, there is this issue about Lebanon. [9:20] Reading the statement from the Lebanese presidency, [9:22] it talks about them getting into announcing a ceasefire on Tuesday. [9:30] Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Parliament, has talked about, [9:33] no, there needs to be a ceasefire, and we need some resolution to this assets issue [9:38] before the talks begin. [9:40] Do you think, will he really stand by those words, [9:44] or is he going to back down and go into talks on Saturday, [9:47] regardless of whether there is a ceasefire announcement in Lebanon or not? [9:55] Lebanese government has indicated that it's not really capable to defend the country, [9:59] and actually, they should really appreciate Hezbollah for sacrificing life [10:06] and the devotion to their national security and territorial integration. [10:09] Sorry, Zorab, but they also said they don't want Iran. [10:11] They don't want anybody else speaking on their behalf, right? [10:14] But coming back to my question, will Bagher Ghalibaf back down, [10:18] or will he say, I'm not going into talks on Saturday, [10:20] unless these two issues are addressed? [10:23] I think Iran is abiding. [10:25] Iran is abiding by the ally, Hezbollah, [10:29] and, you know, they are really firm in making Israel push back, [10:34] at least to the international borders, [10:37] that makes southern Lebanon, [10:39] that is very much, of course, the Shiites and the Hezbollah, [10:43] actually adherents, safe. [10:46] And I think that Iran is really firm about making Lebanon [10:49] one of the conditions to be approved, [10:52] maybe not exactly before the commands of the negotiations, [10:57] but during the negotiations, [10:59] it would be a very vital and indispensable condition, I think. [11:04] All right, we're going to, unfortunately, we're out of time. [11:05] So let's thank our guests, Zoray Kharazmi, [11:08] Associate Professor at the Faculty of World Studies [11:12] at the University of Tehran. [11:14] She joins us from the Iranian capital. [11:15] Henry Encher, former U.S. Ambassador [11:18] and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [11:22] who joins us from Washington, D.C. [11:24] Thank you so much.