TRUMP LIVE ON CNBC, CEASEFIRE ENDS SOON, UNH EARNINGS, MARKETS CONTINUE PUSHING — MARKET OPEN

[0:18] morning everybody welcome back to another episode of the market open it is tuesday april 21st we [0:26] are live early 20 minutes early today because i felt like starting early i wanted to start the [0:36] show early you know woke up early wanted to start the show early so that is why we are early i'm [0:42] just kidding we got trump live in about four minutes um they said 8 30 he'll be live and so [0:47] we'll be taking a listen to what he says um might be a little later than that but we're gonna see [0:54] um he's on cnbc he's not on like the regular business networks or the regular news network [1:01] so i imagine because he's on cnbc theoretically he should say some stuff that's bullish for the stock [1:07] market he might end up saying some stuff that's bearish so uh it's always a little bit of a gamble [1:12] we're gonna see what happens but he should be live in a couple minutes and we'll see what he ends up [1:17] saying pre-markets are green folks they are greeny green i mean like we are very green smp [1:25] up 0.34 you got netflix that's up nvidia pushing 203 palantir 147 snapchat grab navitas on dos nebbius [1:34] up 1.6 arc tempest uber roku oracle uh amazon apple we have big updates with apple yesterday ceo tim cook [1:42] is stepping down apple actually a little red in the pre-market slightly flat and then amazon investing [1:46] five billion dollars into anthropic another 2.63 that is green um question is going to be can we [1:52] hold on to this green momentum going into today obviously yesterday was the end of the 13-day [1:58] streak on the nasdaq the best streak since 1992 and so yeah the streak ended it is what it is we're [2:04] down about 0.3 on the s&p 500 yesterday we closed at 708 we are basically up the same amount that we [2:09] lost yesterday in the pre-market at 711 now it is going to be contingent on mr donny t and we're going to [2:16] see what he says uh to hopefully keep this keep this going i ran 49 30 that's up in the pre-market [2:23] i mean we've got a lot of stuff credo going crazy up 4.6 a lab up 8.6 you got beyond meat coming back [2:32] that's up 16 pre-market just a lot of names that are getting a lot more love uh carried by the broader [2:39] indices and obviously technology and we'll talk more about some of the headlines from last night and [2:43] kind of how this macro environment is shaping out to be but trump being live is going to be [2:47] very important see what this ends up playing out did you invest in snapchat i did not invest in [2:51] snapchat but it's one of those names that theoretically could be having a turnaround [2:56] with the layoffs and the cost cutting the cfo did leave yesterday uh so in the broader advertising [3:01] sector it's one of those things that we are uh we are looking at we did get job reports about 20 [3:07] minutes ago from adp and those are also pretty good so u.s private hiring 54 750 weekly jobs which [3:16] is not bad at all fifth consecutive week of improving hiring trends up sharply from 40 000 in the prior [3:22] period it's up 500 from early march levels january lows were 5 500 a week march 7th was only at 10 000 [3:29] and based on the data we got this morning we had 54 750 net new jobs that were added in private payrolls [3:36] um which is good i mean you have more jobs in the economy you have more people willing to spend [3:42] you have more earnings growth so if the job numbers are real and if they continue to have a positive [3:46] impact on the broader earnings picture the perception of s p 500 earnings should continue [3:50] to go higher which is kind of the reason i think we've been elevated even in the first place [3:54] over the past couple days and hopefully that continues i will be streaming trump live uh once he's [3:59] live he's not live yet whenever he's live i'll be switching over to him and so for those asking where [4:03] can i listen to it uh you'll be able to listen to it here june what's up good morning robert peter essay [4:11] matthew sandberg what's up rudy yup rocket lab ups in the pre-market unh also not about earnings [4:17] that's up eight percent we'll talk more about unh hitting 350 right now in the pre-market which is [4:22] very nice philip broom what's up um nico jeremy alpha zone so by april 29th is gonna be crazy dude i [4:32] just realized april 29th not only do we have meta microsoft google amazon on the same day which [4:38] hasn't happened since 2020 we have sofi in the morning and then we have the fed meeting in the [4:45] afternoon so it is just going to be a massive day april 29th i mean it's going to be one of those [4:51] days where we're going to see just swings across the entire board you have the biggest companies [4:54] in the world reporting you have the fed meeting by the way kevin warsch is going to be um testifying [4:58] today in front of the senate at 10 a.m so we'll be watching that um and then you have sofi earnings [5:03] as well retail sales just came in 1.7 percent versus 1.4 expected okay march us retail sales [5:11] better than expected 1.7 percent month over month versus 1.4 core retail sales 1.9 versus 1.4 so you [5:20] have a beat on retail sales and a beat on core retail sales which is good uh so you have a good [5:29] jobs report today you have decent retail sales data today as well again trump is not live yet once he's [5:34] live i'll switch over to him but you have some decent beats across the board right there not bad [5:43] matthew thank you for the super chat socks all pushing 100 what a year yeah the semis i have some [5:47] macro data that we're going to look at in a little bit around how well the semis are doing uh but the [5:52] semiconductor inflows are just unbelievable i mean you've got a lot a lot of money coming into the [5:57] semiconductors and smh is at an all-time high obviously there's a reason that uh people are excited [6:03] for the semis they are leading the the broader market right here as well asts yeah it recovered [6:10] a lot of what it lost dude asts was freaking 70 dollars if you bought the dip on that congrats [6:15] i bought it before the decline and it's kind of recovered here you know uh i i think the foam on [6:22] spacex is really starting to get to get to people and as a result you're seeing a lot more excitement [6:27] there all right here we go i think trump is live president donald j trump president trump welcome [6:34] thanks for joining us this morning well thank you very much joe you you are very welcome can you give [6:40] us uh i think it's on everyone's mind the latest on where the iran negotiations stand we now know uh [6:47] tehran has publicly uh confirmed that it will send representatives to the meeting uh with uh vice [6:54] president vance what do you expect what what are you hearing at this point sir well as i said two days [7:01] ago when they said they won't send them i said they'll be sending them they have no choice but to [7:04] send them uh what i think is that we're going to end up with a great deal i think it's got i think [7:10] they have no choice we've taken out their navy we've taken out their air force we've taken out [7:15] their leaders frankly which does complicate things in one way but these leaders are much more rational [7:20] it's a it is regime change no matter what you want to call it which is not something i said i was [7:25] going to do but i've done it indirectly maybe but i've done it and i think we're in a very strong [7:32] negotiating position to do what other presidents should have done during a 47 year period we have [7:38] 47 years where these these bloodthirsty people have been uh killing a lot of soldiers a lot of [7:44] our soldiers and a lot of other people they've killed 42 000 people over the last two months and [7:50] you know you get to a point where people don't want to mention that they don't like mentioning that [7:55] 42 000 unarmed protesters innocent unarmed protesters many of them hung so we're not dealing with the [8:03] nicest group of people but we're dealing with them very successfully and the blockade has been a [8:07] tremendous success they said that two days ago we will open the straight i said no we're not going [8:12] to open the straight until we have a final deal no no we want to open the straight they said we're not [8:17] opening we totally control the straight just so you understand for all the fake news out there [8:22] and mr president we are we've seen a hundred days of the largest protests in iran uh since the [8:29] revolution in 1979 and i i know how much uh you respect and admire and are uh concerned with with [8:39] the iranian people themselves and and this is i think in large degree one of the reasons you decided [8:46] to embark on on this on this whole thing maybe among other things but the timing was right if we get [8:52] close in negotiations right now uh but the deadline for the ceasefire is tomorrow if it looks like things [9:00] are progressing will you not necessarily extend it to a definitive amount of time but will you let [9:07] it keep going if there's uh progress in the talks before uh taking uh well i don't want to do that we [9:14] don't have that much time because by the time both parties get theirs you know they just got the okay [9:18] to go forward which i knew they were going to do anyway i mean i don't think they had a choice they [9:23] have to negotiate and you know the one thing i'll say is is iran can get themselves at a very good [9:28] footing if they make a deal they can make themselves into a strong nation again a wonderful nation [9:34] again they have incredible people but they seem to be you know bloodthirsty they're led by some very [9:42] very unfortunately tough people and i don't mean tough in a good way i think it's very negative for [9:47] the country because we're much tougher than they are like not even close but they have to use reason [9:53] and they have to use common sense and they can get themselves into a great position to [9:58] to make themselves into a great country but a legitimate country not a country based on death [10:03] and aura and i think regimes only respond to certain things and i understand your uh your threats to to [10:11] uh to bond the bridges in the electric grid but i don't think the regime cares about the people of of [10:18] iran and and if you did that i'm sure it's the last thing you'd probably want to do but it would hurt [10:24] at least some of the people that that we we care about and why why we embarked on this uh in the [10:30] first place so that would be i'm i'm sure a last resort for you it's not my choice but it will also [10:36] hit them it'll hurt them militarily they use the bridges for their uh weapons for their missile [10:42] movements you know they're trying to move the missiles because we've obliterated most of their [10:46] missiles and they're trying to move their missiles around even during the ceasefire which i think was a [10:50] good thing because we're totally loaded up we have so much ammo we have so much of everything that [10:55] we've like a much much more powerful than it was four or five weeks ago so we've used this to restock [11:02] and they probably have done a little bit of restocking we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on [11:07] it which wasn't very nice a gift from china perhaps i don't know but i was a little surprised but [11:13] because i have a very good relationship and i thought i had an understanding with president [11:17] chief but that's all right that's the way war goes right but i will uh tell you that we have our [11:23] military is incredible what we've done i mean think of it in the first three days we took out their [11:28] entire navy 159 ships 159 ships and wiped out their air force wiped out their anti-aircraft craft [11:37] all of their anti-aircraft apparatus is all gone all of their radar is gone their leaders are gone you [11:45] know their leaders are gone the whole thing is gone and uh frankly this should have been done a long [11:51] time ago it would have been a lot easier because they were a lot less lethal a long time ago so to [11:57] be clear you're you're saying that you need uh a at least the prospects for a signed deal today and [12:03] tomorrow or else you would resume uh bombing uh iran well i expect to be bombing because i think that's a [12:14] better attitude to go in with but we're ready to go i mean the military is raring to go they are [12:20] absolutely incredible you know i built the military in my first term i'm using it now the military when [12:25] i took it over from barack hussein obama they had just it was so depleted so sad and i built it in my [12:32] first term you remember those big numbers you talked to me about it once that's a lot of money for [12:36] military i built it we did a great job with our military and uh we're using it now and rebuilding it [12:43] too we've done a lot of rebuilding also in my first year of the second term but we have a tremendous [12:49] we have the most powerful military in the world everybody knows it since we're kind of tight on [12:54] on time um can we just talk about what what something else happening today and that that is [13:01] your pick for fed chair kevin warsh uh on on capitol hill we've had a couple of guests today say [13:07] the best thing that we need now is for j pal to leave in may like he's supposed to and to have [13:13] uh kevin warsh in as fed chair for that next uh june meeting but we still have this justice department [13:19] uh probe hanging over and i've seen the things that you said in recent interviews mr president [13:25] i want to ask you again if it would be possible for the banking committee to completely investigate [13:31] all of your concerns about the cost overruns and the testimony of j pal in front of congress if you could [13:39] take that off ramp to get this moving and j pal leaves kevin warsh goes in is that something you'd [13:46] consider dropping for the the doj probe to let the banking committee handle the same point joe from the [13:52] same site that we have to find out why a small building of course close to four billion it's not [14:00] finished by the way they have a long way to go they rip down the most beautiful ceilings they'll never [14:04] build them again the most beautiful thick foot and a half thick walls of solid masonry they're never [14:10] going to be built again they put up six and sheetrock walls and they say so we have no insulation it's [14:15] not in the budget i mean these well they had the best that building was so beautiful i would have fixed [14:20] that building i would have had it brand new beautiful for 25 million dollars and they're going to spend [14:25] close to four billion dollars maybe more than that i don't know it's not finished in fact i looked at it [14:30] the other day i'm afraid kevin will have to have an office next to me in the white house because [14:35] that's something's not going to be done he's not going to be able to use that building for a long [14:38] time and you know he had a complaint he said i didn't realize this he said the saddest thing is [14:43] they ripped down the best building he said there was a building that had beautiful boardrooms that he [14:49] used many times when he was there that beautiful boardrooms and meeting rooms it was so beautiful [14:54] the nicest in washington he said they ripped it down and maybe they did that to save money like the [15:01] gavin newsom the railroad where they made it shorter in order to save money but it's still 25 [15:05] times over budget but the worst i've ever heard is the railroad in california and i think this might [15:11] be worse think of it i would have fixed that building beautiful quickly 25 million would have [15:17] been like a brand new building i would have all the ceilings would have been left all those beautiful [15:22] thick walls with gorgeous moldings would have been left you're going to get a sheetrock ceiling a sheetrock [15:28] whoa without insulation they said sir insulation is not in the budget installation costs you 100 [15:34] bucks a room the whole thing is crazy and they're at four they're i think it's going to cost more than [15:39] four billion dollars when it's finished but somehow we know but joe somehow we have to find out how this [15:45] can happen it's not the first time how does this happen has did the contractor make three and a half [15:51] billion dollars right you know if the banking committee think i can't imagine i can't imagine [15:57] that too late is taking money on construction i can't but it's possible but we have to find out [16:05] why is a job that should have cost 25 million dollars costing billions and billions of dollars [16:11] you know i built the hotel it's now the waldorf i sold it to waldorf and it's now the waldorf i built it [16:16] for 201 million it's a bigger building than the federal and it was hotel rooms with bathrooms and [16:23] you know partitions and it's much more expensive to build a hotel room than it is a nice empty office [16:28] space right and i built that for 201 million this now is eight years ago or so but think of it [16:36] this building you look at it it's a little building it's over i think it's going to cost over 400 [16:43] billion and here's the thing it's going to be nothing compared to what it was this is they spent [16:49] four billion dollars and it's nothing compared to what it was it was beautiful beautiful ceilings are [16:55] all destroyed they took them down i don't know why if the doj though if if if this goes forward with [17:03] the department of justice and it delays uh the appoint or the uh you know him being confirmed uh kevin [17:10] warsh it's kind of counterproductive for for what you're trying to do in terms of changing the the [17:18] mo of the fed uh up to this point so i'm just trying to look for an off-ramp to get for you well it is [17:24] and it isn't joe you have to find out why a thing like that could happen because if you have hundreds [17:28] of projects like that you know very few are like this but if you had hundreds of projects like that [17:33] you have to find out why that happened i mean because we obviously don't do it right but uh you know [17:39] we have some really people we have some great people in government that can do jobs i i build [17:45] under budget ahead of schedule i'm doing a ballroom now it's a much bigger job than that [17:52] and it's going to cost depending on finishes like 300 300 million dollars it's a much bigger job than [17:58] that's ahead of schedule and i have lawsuits every week from all these people all the do-gooders that [18:03] you know that stop progress in our country well i'm going to get back to you a chance with mr [18:07] president to get you there and you can have some extra time i know my people said 20 minutes but [18:11] you can have some extra time oh that's all right that's you can even put andrew on the on the phone [18:16] you know you told me andrew would not be there and i said i don't know that was last week that was [18:21] last week you could even put andrew on to me when he tried to get me on he said i promised i'll have [18:27] andrew raw stock and he will not be there that's that you can put him on it i didn't say i said he's not in [18:34] last week but then you can't because you're on the west thank you mr president well i'll i'll [18:39] i'll tell you i'm in a minute but i don't mind to be there i like him i respect him he's just wrong [18:45] on a lot of issues that's it there you go mr president thank you uh let's talk a little bit [18:51] about what you hi sir let's talk a little bit about what you expect from your next uh fed president [18:57] there had been a lot of expectations you've been very clear about wanting lower rates [19:02] but with the situation in iran right now with higher oil prices most people tell us that that's [19:08] going to have to wait the market itself is not anticipating lower rates or any rate cuts until [19:14] at least the second half of this year there's only a 41 chance or something of that according to the [19:18] market itself will you be disappointed if your new fed chair if he gets approved doesn't cut rates right [19:25] away i would but let's talk about iran first uh iran if you i'm looking at your numbers now as i [19:32] speak i mean the market's up we're going to be at 50 000 that's where we were just a little while ago [19:38] when it started and when i hit 50 000 on the dow and 7 000 on the s p i said well i hate to do this to [19:45] everybody but i'm going to have to journey down to a place called iran and not make sure they don't [19:50] have a nuclear weapon because they will blow up the world you want to see a bad stock market try [19:55] blowing up the middle east and then europe and then they come for us right and we're not going [20:00] to let that happen so i said to the people i said to my people they were all gathered all these [20:04] wonderful guys got fast into the whole the whole group howard they're all doing a good job i said [20:09] fellas i got a little bad news for you i'm going to put a little wrinkle in your numbers why sir we're [20:14] going down to a place called iran and we're going to make sure that they never have a nuclear weapon [20:19] because they'll use it to blow because they're religious fanatics and they will use that weapon [20:24] to blow up the world but they'll start with israel in the middle east and we're not going to let that [20:28] happen and they said wow that's going to be bad i said yeah it's going to hurt the market and it's [20:33] going to drive up the price of oil and whatever it is but that's peanuts compared to what would happen [20:39] if we let this happen and i told them 47 years other presidents wanted to do it they never had the guts [20:45] the courage to do it i said we have to do it and they understood that very professional [20:49] they're great guys great people uh jameson's doing such a great job all of them and so i said we're [20:55] going down and we're gonna we're gonna do our little thing and we did and we've you know knocked [21:00] out with we've totally won the war you know if you read the new york times you think oh gee when are [21:05] we surrendering we have totally beat them militarily and and otherwise and otherwise i mean i wish i [21:11] could i wish you could hear the conversations we have with him uh with them we are victoria if we left right [21:19] now it would take them 20 years to rebuild and they can't get the nuclear dust because [21:24] they it was obliterated by the b2 bombers that went in they never got the credit they should get [21:29] they've tried to get down there you know we have cameras from space force on it all the time [21:33] they've tried to get down they can't get down that place was obliterated they did such a good job [21:38] the left tries to make it you know tries to demean all the time like oh well maybe it wasn't totally [21:43] obliterated it was and they can't get it or they would have they would have tried to get it but the [21:48] fact is that we took this little journey and if you would have told me that the dow is almost i'm [21:53] looking at your thing i mean literally we're at 50 000 uh and if you would have told me that oil is at [21:59] 90 uh as opposed to 200 i would be frankly surprised and you know what is happening boats are finding other [22:06] sources they're flying they're going up to texas and louisiana they're going to alaska they're going to [22:12] other places it's an amazing phenomena you know when when there are problems people find out how [22:18] to take care of things and uh the straight's very important but people have found out i mean you're [22:24] taking a look look at your numbers right now i'm looking at where the stock market's up and where it's [22:29] you know look at that s p the numbers are are what they were when we started this whole thing i thought [22:35] they'd be down 20 percent or down a very substantial amount um even when it was down more a couple of [22:41] weeks ago uh i was surprised i thought it would be down much more and i thought the oil would be [22:46] much higher and i'm very happy to say that it wasn't and when it's over and it will end when it's [22:52] over you know they want it to be over immediately and i just looked at a little chart world war one [22:57] four years and three months world war ii six years korean war three years vietnam 19 years iraq eight years [23:05] i'm five months okay five months i would have won vietnam very quickly i would have if i were [23:13] president i would have won iraq in the same amount of time that we won because essentially we've won [23:19] here okay i mean people can play games the democrats can say well we should have done better no matter [23:25] what if i did it in one week they should have said they'd say we should have done better look at [23:30] venezuela i took it over in 45 minutes it was basically a 45 minutes and by the way a very strong [23:36] military country and we took it over in a day but let's be nice but we basically took it over in 45 minutes [23:43] we took it over during the attack in 45 minutes uh and they would say i'm surprised i haven't said [23:48] it that you should have done it in 30 minutes it took too long you know so it's it's tough but we [23:54] can't let traders we can't let traders like schumer put pressure on you where they say we want out [24:01] how think how bad that is i'm negotiating with these people and they're telling us we have to get [24:06] out now we have to get out now we have to get now and they were in a war for 18 years they were in a war [24:11] for think of that vietnam 19 years iraq eight years so right and i want to make i want to make a good [24:20] deal i'm not going to be rushed i have all the time in the world i want to make it not a good deal i want [24:24] to make a great deal i don't want to do this go through this and you know we have i mean if you look [24:31] at this what we've suffered in terms of losses we lost 13 men and that's terrible we i wish we didn't [24:37] lose one but if somebody would have said we've done this and obliterated that country obliterated [24:42] it and we lost 13 men people would have said that's not possible to have done that it's not possible [24:50] so we've done a great job and i don't want to be rushed by people that are really treasonous as far [24:55] as i'm concerned we're there and it's just you know i watch this low iq guy hakim jeffries he's a [24:59] totally low iq person and he's always ranting and raving oh this war is so terrible they shouldn't be [25:05] saying that when we're in the midst of a negotiation because it does hurt us somewhat it gives the other [25:11] side some hope and i don't want them to have hope mr president uh i wanted to ask you about anthropic [25:18] if i could for a second because this is a company uh that uh your administration has declared a supply [25:23] chain risk and i want to understand the determination for that there's a view by some that it's political [25:30] but more importantly at the same time that this is happening uh reportedly the nsa and other parts of [25:36] the government are using a claude which of course is the the large language model of anthropic and [25:41] how you square that well anthropic is a group of very smart people but they started telling our [25:47] military how to operate and we didn't want that and they tend to be on the left radical left but we [25:54] get along with them in fact they came to uh the office they came to the white house a few days ago and [26:00] we had some very good talks with them and i think they're shaping up they're very smart and i think they [26:05] can be of great use i like smart people i like high iq people and they definitely have high iq's you [26:11] know it's one of those things and i think we'll get along with them just fine so do you think a deal [26:17] will be made so that anthropic will be allowed to be used inside the defense department the future we [26:22] want we want the smartest people now in the meantime we replace anthropic with somebody else you know who [26:29] they are and they're very very smart people sam altman the very very smart group we have a lot of [26:36] smart groups we have some brilliant people we have the most brilliant people in the world president [26:41] she told me that he said silicon valley yep he called it silicon valley during a conversation have [26:46] a great relationship with him he said you have the smartest people in the world and we do you take a [26:52] look at what's happening with jensen and all of these people and uh they're it's a great it's a great [26:58] honor to be working i think uh tim cook you know i see he's retiring i wrote a piece about him today [27:05] and uh no i got to know him very well he's a he's a fantastic person did an unbelievable job if [27:11] and i say it respectfully but if steve jobs had lived and ran the company uh it might have done [27:17] good but it wouldn't have done i think nearly as good as the job tim has done and i got to work with [27:23] him so i really know it i know what i'm talking about he's a very unusual guy he gets things done [27:29] mr president yeah we we did read your your entire true social uh post i just want to return for for one [27:35] second and and and make an analogy here you saw what inflation did to uh the biden uh legacy and [27:43] administration so 22 percent price increases it by the time he was by the time he was leaving it was [27:49] down to about where it is now about three percent but not a single it was down to five percent it [27:55] wasn't down or three but but but not a single reason it was down was because i had won the election and it [28:00] started falling after i won the election and i started getting prices down from right after [28:05] november 5th if you needed to to prevent that from happening let's say chair warstock uh for whatever [28:13] reason there there's some type of energy shock who knows with with the blockade uh let's say that [28:18] things got too hot at that point just to make sure there was no inflation would you allow him to raise [28:25] rates or not cut rates you would there ever be a period where you could see that that was something [28:30] that a fed chair needed to do and if he said he might have an office right near you he might not want [28:36] an office right right next to yours sir i don't know after after what happened to jay powell he might [28:41] want to be across in those new digs maybe maybe i'd like him next to me actually it's not a bad idea [28:48] maybe maybe jay powell did us a uh a big service and i call him too late he's just too late he's always too [28:56] late except when it came to before the election but that didn't quite work out well for him [29:00] so the answer is i want i want kevin i think kevin's great he's really he's central casting [29:06] in a true sense okay i think he's going to do a great job yeah if there's time for i've been i've [29:10] been in favor of interest rates rate rises to stop inflation it's i think it's sort of is effective [29:17] but there's one thing and and you nobody ever talks about it but me unfortunately so i'm sure it's [29:21] not correct but i think it is we should be we should have the lowest interest rate in the world [29:26] when i was a young guy growing up we always had the lowest interest rate worldwide we always did [29:32] and then uh 15 years ago 20 years ago it started where switzerland and other people had lower rates [29:40] than us and i just had a thing with uh if you take a look at some of the you know let's call them like [29:46] elite countries they're only elite because we allow them to walk away with 30 billion and 40 billion [29:52] dollars a year but i don't do that so much anymore i sort of put a clamp on that with the [29:57] tariffs and charges that we charge them because they were elite because they're making billions [30:03] and billions of dollars from the united states larger and other reasons and they run a good [30:08] operation but it's easy to run it good when you make that much money where we have these massive [30:12] deficits with uh you you take a look at some of the countries but switzerland is one they talk oh yes we [30:19] are a small and brilliant well they're brilliant because they pay us almost nothing now they pay [30:25] a little bit they should pay much more we'll get that up a little bit but if you take a look at uh [30:30] denmark you take a look at all these countries you know you think of them so good they pay such a [30:35] low interest rate well if we charge them and what happened with with me is i charged some of them [30:40] and they squawked like you wouldn't believe it they called and you are a small country all of a sudden [30:46] i realized they're not elite we're elite we're being sucked dry and we can't do that and you'll [30:53] see that you know we had a little setback with the supreme court they said i could charge tariffs but i [30:57] have to do it a different way and because of what they did we have to pay back 160 billion dollars all [31:04] they had to do is add one sentence just one sentence and that's you don't have to pay anything [31:09] taken in thus far back but because they didn't add and by the way it was a close call too there were [31:16] justices that were powerful that i was right on the tariff but because we lost by just two votes [31:23] you know just little vote two votes we have to pay back 165 billion they could have with a little one [31:30] sentence you don't have to pay back tariffs that have already been received you start from this point [31:36] and you do it a different way so we're doing it a different way we're going to end up with the same [31:39] actually we'll end up with bigger numbers actually but it's a little more unwieldy but it's the way it's been [31:45] done uh but it's so mr president the supreme court didn't want to save our country with one sentence [31:50] 165 billion dollars and we're giving a lot of that money back to people that hate our country [31:57] so i'm not happy with the supreme court i'll be honest with you okay mr president on that topic [32:02] there's a whole number of very large companies including apple and amazon and others that have not [32:08] sought uh reimbursements yet uh for the tariffs i mean they haven't they haven't tried to collect [32:13] refunds um and from what i understand part of the reason that they have waited is because there is a [32:19] worry uh about frankly offending you uh do you would you find it offensive for them to try to uh [32:26] collect it i think it's brilliant if they don't do that i should i actually think if they don't do that [32:31] they they got to know me very well i'm very honored by what you just said if they don't do that i'll [32:36] remember them i will tell you that because i'm looking to make this country strong supreme court [32:41] could have helped us now they have birthright citizenship they'll probably rule against us no [32:45] country in the world has it it's horrible for our country and i just see it you know i see some of [32:51] these republicans that are nominated by me uh asking real bad questions and looks like maybe we're [32:59] going to lose that one too look what happened with nil they destroyed college sports the court system [33:05] destroyed so hard to put that one back humpty dumpty so hard to put that one back together you [33:11] know we had 150 years of of rulings and everything else and they had such a great system it was a [33:17] scholarship system you get free college if you're a good athlete you get this you get that and it took [33:23] care of every sport fencing not only football now it's all football and the football is bringing [33:29] down colleges because they're losing did you see penn state lost 500 million dollars last year [33:37] florida state lost 450 million dollars last year they can't lose that kind of money they don't make [33:44] that kind of money and this is the court the court the court system a person that never had anything to [33:51] do with sports a very liberal leaning democrat liberal she decided that the sports system that was in place for [34:00] 150 years is no good she never went to a game before it is no good and she said it's unconstitutional [34:06] and unfortunately ncaa didn't even appeal it you know i've won a lot of cases on appeal to be honest [34:11] with you we got some really bad judges but i've won a lot of cases on appeal some great people some [34:17] we have fortunately some great people in the appellate courts and uh i've won cases they didn't [34:22] appeal it and because of that college college sports is is a disaster right now you have many [34:29] people staying in college because they're going to make more money than they would if they went into [34:32] baseball major league baseball or the nfl they can make more money you know a seven-year freshman we have [34:38] a seven-year freshman it's crazy what they've done and this is a person that never went to a game [34:45] acknowledged not familiar with sports but she overruled everything she said it's all unconstitutional [34:54] start all over again and thank goodness we have people like randy levine and others that uh coach [34:59] saban who's so great and we have a lot of people got together but it's very hard to put that one [35:04] together i will tell you right now it's a tough one but they're going to do the best but if the courts [35:09] had common sense they would have done they would have done something that could have been very easy to do [35:14] and made everybody happy if they had common sense we would not be paying back almost 200 billion [35:20] dollars in tariffs so stupidly in many cases the enemy the enemy is getting this money the people [35:28] that have hated the united states we're giving them checks for billions of dollars it's so sad to see [35:34] and it would be nice if if the court system and the supreme court could have done things a little [35:40] bit differently very sad actually it's very sad it's called no common sense and look at the rulings [35:45] we're getting on illegal immigrants i mean they're coming in murderers and everything else we have [35:49] a murder many time murder it's really hard to get them out of our country but we don't stop mr [35:58] president uh just in terms of putting things together there there are there's a story earlier this week [36:04] about united potentially wanting to buy american uh senators from both sides of the aisle have warned [36:10] that that is a step too far you should not be putting these two large airlines together have you thought [36:14] about that proposition i just heard it two days ago and i know them both very well i don't like it [36:20] no i don't mind mergers i think i'd love somebody to buy spirit as an example you know spirits in trouble [36:26] and i'd love somebody to buy spirit it's 14 000 jobs and maybe the federal government should help [36:31] that one out you know i tell my people but but with american it's doing fine and united is doing very [36:37] well i know the united people they're doing very well i don't like having them merge it's just like all of [36:42] these aerospace companies defense companies and aerospace companies we used to have hundreds of [36:48] them and now we have like a very small number and you get one bid and it makes them lazy and i came [36:54] down very hard on them two three months ago because it takes too long we have the best equipment in the [36:58] world we have the best you know the paper systems the tomahawk systems we have the best stuff in the [37:04] world by far you know the other day during this crazy war with we we had 111 it's a there's a [37:13] dispute as to 111 and 101 i want to be exactly accurate with you people because otherwise you'll [37:17] write stories that i exaggerated we had 101 or 111 nobody's able to get it right but the result was the [37:24] same missile shot at one of our great assets out in that area a ship and out of the 111 missile shot [37:33] every single one of them was shot down going at 3 000 miles an hour right you know not easy it's [37:40] like a needle in a haste they used to call it impossible to do so they go to 3 000 miles an hour [37:46] every single one of them was shot down mostly by patriots but every one of them was shot down think of [37:54] it 111 missiles coming at you and every one of those missiles is now lying at the bottom of the sea like [38:01] like the navy like the iran's navy is lying at the bottom of the sea it's amazing but we got to [38:06] make it faster so i have a push you know raytheon took billions of dollars billions many i don't even [38:13] want to tell you how many because i'm embarrassed for stock buybacks instead of buying plants so i made [38:19] it illegal for them to do that no defense company they have to build new plants so we have plants [38:24] raytheon now is building five uh they're all building lockheed's building three or four they're all [38:30] building plants because we need speed we don't want uh you know you order a patriot and they say [38:35] we'll have it to you sir in three and a half years we want it in a week and that's where we are now [38:40] they're building plants all over the country and they're going to do well for doing it we appreciate [38:45] if you have time i want to ask you one more question uh and you know we have allies now in in [38:53] the middle east maybe some are uh we can maybe count on more than allies in other parts of the world [38:58] but they're they're much better allies than they are that i can tell you the the uae asking uh the [39:05] u.s for some type of of financial life i don't know if it's a uh a solvency problem it's more of a [39:11] liquidity problem and i know we did uh secretary beset did something with with uh argentina that [39:17] that worked out is there some type of swap possible um to currency swap with the uae to help if they [39:24] need it and do you think there would be backlash because it's such a wealth or perceived to be [39:29] such a wealthy country is that under consideration it is but it's been a good country it's been a good [39:34] ally of ours and you know these are unusual times they were more than anybody else i mean it was [39:40] shocking because we thought that they'd shoot missiles at israel but not every other country [39:45] in the area and you know uae got hit with 1400 missiles now fortunately they had the patriots and [39:51] they had a great defense and they were able to shoot down most of them but they did get hit hard [39:58] uh they were hit the hardest of the group actually and they're really led by incredible people and [40:04] yeah i i mean i'm surprised because they are really rich you know they invested uh a year ago i went [40:11] there and i got them to invest one trillion dollars in the united states they're building a tremendous [40:17] plant in uh a great state called oklahoma aluminum plant melting plant beautiful incredible top of the [40:24] it'll be the best anywhere in the world you know they're very good for this country so yeah if i [40:29] could help them i would i i mean we're helping them much more with what we're doing with the war [40:33] because you know the bully of the middle east was iran iran was a bully and bullied all of these [40:39] countries around and they threatened them all the time and they threatened about the harmos straight [40:44] they threatened sometimes some people call it the straight of harmos which is actually a more beautiful [40:49] wording but uh they threatened them all the time and and uh with so we're really doing a big job [40:57] there those five countries have been great and israel's been great israel israel's been a great uh [41:02] partner for us it's like they say we're the big brother they're the small brother but the small [41:08] brother's been very helpful to us you know they displayed great courage and yeah if uae had a problem [41:14] i i i find it hard to believe but if they had a problem i will at all we would be there for them [41:20] yeah are the saudis impatient now or do they want are they on the other side were they well he's another [41:27] great guy you know he gave me the famous line that i used a little bit he said a year and a half ago [41:32] sir you were a dead country now you're the hottest country anywhere in the world he said that to me and [41:36] it's true we were a dead country we had a guy that wasn't respected we had a country that was laughed at [41:42] he couldn't walk up a flight of stairs he got about down he couldn't walk up a flight but he was [41:47] falling all over the place i have to be careful because if i do trip or fall it's got to be the [41:52] biggest that's why when i get out of those planes i walk nice and slowly i'm not looking to set any [41:57] speed records but uh we had a an embarrassing country we had a country that was going to fail if [42:03] this country would have failed if i didn't win this election i've had many people tell me that many [42:08] people that aren't necessarily of the republican persuasion or mega but uh we've had many people [42:15] say it that this country would have failed if i didn't win this election you people wouldn't be [42:19] looking at the numbers you're looking at right now the saudis are not uh are they taking it [42:25] economically on the chin to the point where they want you to end this or are they saying i spoke [42:31] to him yesterday he wasn't asking for anything he wants to they're fighting you know they're helping [42:36] us they're helping us on the straight they're helping us all over the ones that aren't helping [42:40] are nato you know nato said to me no we'll send somebody as soon as it's over i said that's not [42:46] really you know we don't need them we'll never need them actually they'll need us they need us [42:50] desperately because they're a paper tiger but uh i've said that by the way i've said that for a long [42:55] time before i was in politics i used to say it i was i was not in politics but i sort of enjoyed it and i [43:02] liked watching things but i always said they were a paper tiger and europe europe has to straighten [43:08] themselves out between energy and immigration they have to straighten themselves out or they're [43:12] not going to have a europe anymore yeah we could talk nato but but i know you've uh obviously got [43:19] a lot to do we we will be watching for any true social posts about the negotiations whether you hear [43:24] uh what's happening but thanks for all your time this morning mr president we greatly appreciate it [43:28] well thank you and becky thank you and andrew i'm glad you were on the phone i'm really glad [43:33] even though joe totally misrepresented i don't mind that at all okay thank you mr president we'll talk [43:40] all right that was a nice 35 minute interview with the president of the united states thank you [43:48] everybody for being here but uh we are now i believe finished with that interview real quick [43:55] before we get into all the market news just for people that missed the entire thing or you came in late [43:59] this is the basic summary that you need trump said i thought the stock market would be down more [44:04] when i went into my iran excursion thankfully it's not down as much uh he said the dow will be back to [44:09] 50k he said iran will be sending their delegates to negotiate we'll end up with a great deal he said [44:13] the united states is in full control of the straight he said i don't want to extend the ceasefire we [44:17] need to get the deal done soon i'm ready to start attacking again if nothing gets done he then went [44:21] on to talk about kevin warsh but he didn't really talk much about kevin warsh he said i'll be [44:24] disappointed if he doesn't start cutting rates but more importantly kevin warsh can't get nominated [44:29] to become the fed chair unless j powell and the probe from the doj that trump's doj started back [44:35] in january doesn't go away and trump basically said i'm not willing to take away the probe because [44:41] the billions of dollars that jerome powell sped spent on the fed renovations uh is egregious and he [44:47] went on to talk about how he built bigger hotels uh years ago than the fed jerome powell building for much [44:53] less than what it cost so essentially we got the same talking points we've got over the past couple [44:58] of uh days around the iran war negotiations uh we just got a report that came in 10 minutes ago [45:04] that jd vance has landed along with steve whitkoff and jared kushner in pakistan so the question now [45:10] which we'll find out probably in the next couple hours is are the iranians sending their delegates [45:15] which trump confirmed on cnbc that they are you got a lot of different you know quotes from the irgc [45:21] saying that we're not sending any delegates so we don't really know i think in the next couple [45:24] hours we'll know for sure if they're negotiating uh but definitely the us delegation consisting of [45:30] vance whitkoff and kushner have went and um you know now hopefully the iranians come and if [45:35] the iranians come then there can be a negotiation and hopefully that negotiation results in a bigger [45:39] peace deal markets are green they were a bit more green before trump went live i think some of [45:45] his comments around continuing to attack is what uh led the market into a couple of red candles but [45:49] we're still holding on to the green we did end the 13 day streak that we had the best since 1992 on [45:54] the nasdaq yesterday with a red day down 0.2 we are up 0.2 in the pre-market so we're kind of [45:59] getting back a lot of what we lost and video was pushing 203 right now it's at 202 202 30 estera [46:04] that's up eight percent game stops up netflix is up credo's up overall across the board you're seeing [46:08] some green the big movers right here before we get into some of the big news from yesterday around amazon [46:13] and apple is hymns uh ironically the big amazon news from yesterday coincides with more and more [46:20] verticals that amazon is getting into so why is hymns down three percent after it was up eight percent [46:24] yesterday amazon is let me pull this up right here launching amazon one medical a national glp [46:33] one weight loss program offering injectable treatment starting at 300 bucks per month and oral options [46:38] starting at 149 a month so i mean once again the argument against hymns has always been [46:45] grows fast good company a lot of marketing but is there a moat and so many times the stock has been [46:52] hit many in many different ways whether it's from novo or lily or amazon because people just don't [46:56] think there's a moat um you know one can argue that there is a moat and that the market is huge and [47:01] that hymns will be able to succeed and peptides is the real story not glp1 but the point is if the [47:05] market doesn't interpret that in that fashion then obviously the stock's gonna get hit down 3.84 [47:09] we'll see if the shorts double down today the short float is still 40 or if the dip buyers come [47:14] in and potentially squeeze the shorts but that's why hymns is down three percent right now weeble is [47:18] doing a hundred million dollar buyback that's why that stock is up 9.7 i think people knew about this [47:23] yesterday because the stock was going up yesterday after hours and we didn't really know why it looks [47:29] like uh it is potentially going to be because of that buyback and it makes sense i mean the stock's down [47:34] a lot from the ipo so it makes sense for them to be buying back stock and as a result that's [47:38] giving the street more momentum for weeble right here amazon what was the big news yesterday and [47:43] why is this up 2.5 amazon is investing 25 billion dollars into anthropic but more importantly not only [47:49] are they investing 25 billion dollars from anthropic that was announced last night um anthropic will be [47:54] spending 100 billion dollars with aws over the next 10 years so think about it as 10 billion dollars a [48:01] year uh in basically new aws revenue this was like newly announced yesterday and maybe some of the [48:06] street models had priced it in but if they haven't i mean amazon could have a really good day if we start [48:12] to see more of those uh price targets get a bit higher they're going to be securing five gigawatts of [48:16] current and future generations of amazon's tranium trips amazon's uh aws bedrock platform will be working [48:22] with claude to expand it to 100 000 different customers and then amazon will invest investing five [48:26] billion dollars in anthropic today up to an additional 20 billion dollars in the future so this is super [48:31] bullish amazon obviously amazon continues to collaborate with a variety of different partners [48:34] and amazon has that 50 billion dollar open ai deal as well so open ai and anthropic will be spending [48:40] tons and tons of money on aws i just don't think there's a reason to be bearish amazon right here [48:45] especially with aws acceleration street took it to 195 a couple weeks ago if you bought the dip [48:50] congratulations it's at 250 today hopefully make a run to 260 but this is one that probably deserves to [48:55] continue uh getting the multiple that it's getting right now octa director just bought 267 [49:02] thousand dollars of shares first insider buy since 2017 that stock was up five percent yesterday [49:07] another name that's kind of in that software sell off up about one percent of the pre-market [49:11] not that big of a buy at 267 thousand dollars but you do have a little bit more of an insider buy [49:16] beyond me that's up 20 in the pre-market it was up 41 today or yesterday i mean you're seeing a [49:22] resurgence of the meme stocks coming back crispy crispy cream was up yesterday you have bird that was [49:27] still up i mean a lot of these names continuing to catch a bid right here i think it's the typical [49:33] thing that happens in a bull market i don't necessarily attribute that as toppy i mean like [49:39] yes it feels a little bit euphoric but if these companies went to zero they wouldn't really affect [49:42] the broader market it's more concerning when like max seven companies or really important companies that [49:47] have real earnings get overextended which kind of happened back in october of 2025 and like reddit was [49:52] pushing 300 and i think reddit's a great company right it probably deserves to be a bit higher than [49:56] where it is today but 300 back in october was a little aggressive when when those companies start [50:00] getting extended that's bad when your little meme stocks sub billion dollar companies get extended [50:05] i mean it's annoying to see it happen but i don't think it's the biggest deal in the world it just [50:08] means there's excess capital and some of that capital might be flowing into uh into those companies [50:13] is nebius's nj site going to be delayed for about one to two years yes so we have some news on that [50:17] nebius right they're up about one percent of the pre-market potentially uh they they were supposed to [50:23] have a data center that was getting set up in new jersey and right now there is a high probability [50:27] that the new jersey facility will be delayed for 12 to 24 more 12 to 24 months due to air permit issues [50:33] which was disclosed in the form 6k that came out uh this morning now the other reason this is not the [50:41] best thing in the world is because there are plenty of um protests against new jersey data centers uh [50:48] there was one near ruckers which was the college that i went to a few years ago uh where people literally [50:52] set up there's like 150 people and they had megaphones and they were just yelling about [50:57] how data centers are horrible for the economy wow him's really getting hit right here eight percent [51:00] down based on this amazon news and um yeah there's just a broader retreat of people feeling that the [51:07] data centers are not the best thing in the world now i don't think it really hurts nebius long term [51:11] obviously the stock went from freaking 80 to 160 in like two weeks so if it goes back down to 140 which [51:16] i don't even think it'll do like it is what it is i don't think people can be too upset but yeah i mean [51:19] this is more of a political issue versus a nebius issue and i'm sure it's going to affect a bunch of [51:23] other companies that are in the data center space it's just something they're going to have to deal [51:28] with long term uh so we'll see how the market reacts to it it looks like that facility could [51:32] be delayed again they have a bunch of other facilities starting in israel and finland as [51:35] well that was disclosed over the past couple weeks so hopefully it's not the worst thing there [51:39] for nebby's iren that's up half a percent that is green soundtown i don't know why that's up seven [51:45] percent let me know if they had earnings i don't think they did but there you go seven [51:48] percent move again some of these smaller companies soundhound weeble a lot of them [51:52] catching a little bit of a bid today blackberry was up yesterday 13 that one's flat in the [51:55] pre-market adobe that's up 0.2 air test systems up 1.5 and phase up 0.83 and then corby [52:01] up 0.7 look at crowd strike it's at 440 this thing got to 350 two weeks ago in the software sell-off [52:07] very very nice but that one is making a bit more of a move apple tim apple is stepping down as ceo [52:16] effective by the end of summer he will retain he will retain his board seat as an executive [52:20] chairman on the board of apple i really think this is a nothing burger to be honest as i did [52:24] some research last night the bullet case on apple is very simple they have billions of devices they [52:28] actually implement ai features that people want to use they charge a monthly fee and they start [52:32] printing a new source of revenue and potentially have ai devices that are synonymous with the ai [52:36] software they're building and then they can usher themselves into the ai era the problem is tim [52:40] cook really hasn't taken uh many risks when it comes to ai the reason i called him tim apple is [52:45] because trump called him tim apple back in 2017 i know his name is tim cook but uh it was funny [52:50] when trump called him tim you like seriously called him tim apple and he didn't even notice that [52:55] he said his name wrong um but he took the market cap from 350 billion to four trillion right so he's [53:00] done a phenomenal job and uh he deserves all the praise the problem is you know in terms of the ai [53:05] narrative i i think it's not controversial to say that apple has dropped the ball uh over the past [53:11] five years they have no investments in anthropic open ai no meaningful models i mean i guess their [53:16] whole strategy is to not spend on capex let everyone else spend and then partner with them [53:19] that's a bit of a risk because maybe people start using chat gpt more than they want to use the apple [53:23] integration with chat gpt so i don't think this john turnis guy who is the uh vp of engineering right [53:29] now who will now become the ceo is going to be any different from tim cook so quite frankly stocks [53:34] down one percent because the street's always going to react when a ceo steps down but i don't think [53:38] we're going to get a fundamental shift in change i don't think it's going to be like a guy who's [53:41] ready to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on capex i think it's gonna be the same old buyback [53:45] stock put out a new couple models every year and then hopefully one of them takes off or their [53:50] agentic siri takes off which we don't even know if we're going to get that in wwdc this year [53:54] um and if it does then you know apple's gonna be okay if not then i think people will still question [53:59] what is the ai mode of apple so ceo stepping down makes sense tim cook was inevitably going to do it [54:05] i just don't think it's going to change the leadership structure of uh of apple right now [54:09] arm that's up 1.5 pre-market adobe's up 0.28 igv software making a comeback that is a 0.58 poet [54:15] up another five percent it was up 18 yesterday marvell got a partnership with google on tpus [54:20] also after hours marvell works with amazon so the 10 billion dollar annual um essentially contract with [54:28] anthropic is really good for marvell poet works with marvell so he's got a lot of these smaller names [54:32] that are benefiting from this ai semiconductor rush and and let that transitions us into some [54:37] of the macro news take a look at this we got a bunch of different charts to take a look at to [54:41] kind of solidify why this bull market continues to be very strong this is the inflows in semiconductor [54:48] etfs this includes soxx and smh i mean this is the largest monthly inflow almost 5.6 billion that we [54:59] have seen since 2019 in semiconductors that is why your nvidia's your amd's your marvell's your um [55:08] intel's etc intel got an upgrade today by the way to 90 and the entire quote of the upgrade until up [55:12] two percent right here is that server shortage shortages are more important than global foundries [55:17] and we've been talking a little bit about the server cpu market i mean um jensen has been talking [55:22] about that as well gtc i mean cpus maybe is what takes intel to a 500 billion dollar market cap right [55:27] now it's at 329 and the upgrade there was to 90 bucks that's 67 right there so all the semis [55:33] continue i mean credo right just a massive massive moves across the board if you are allocated to [55:39] semis in some capacity whether it's nvidia amd smh whatever it is broadcom it's been a fun couple weeks [55:45] um and if you aren't then the question simply because how much has becomes how much of your [55:49] exposure do you want to increase into the semis if we think this momentum in semiconductors is not [55:54] necessarily slowing down microstrategy up 0.16 as well where is btc btc is at 76 000 uh which is [56:03] what we were at yesterday jensen talked about the adobe ceo this morning he basically said he [56:09] even he was trying his best to pump up adobe and he said adobe is the most important company on the [56:14] planet that has contributed to the way we tell stories and you know agentic ai in the adobe creative [56:19] suite is going to be very important so jensen and the adobe ceo both together trying to make the case [56:24] for why adobe is not going to be killed by ai and why they're only going to be accelerated through [56:28] it street doesn't fully believe it yet adobe right there at 249.99 we also have smp 500 targets that [56:37] have started to get increased we did a podcast steve and i that will be coming up probably tomorrow [56:41] with someone who manages four billion dollars on wall street really really smart guy it's the first [56:45] time i met him but um just like listening to him for an hour i was just incredibly engaged in the [56:50] conversation and he has an s p 500 8600 8600 target he is not a perma bear by or permable by [56:57] any sense of the imagination but the way he breaks down the earnings picture the 10-year rate and then [57:00] rates coming down in general um in terms of interest rates you know it becomes very exciting to say hey [57:08] what if we could apply a very common multiple 23 times but the earnings growth uh and the 10-year [57:13] re-rating is enough to kind of take the markets forward so i mean 8600 is a super bowl case but [57:17] 8 000 to him he thinks is kind of inevitable if this market continues going up obviously it's [57:23] contingent on the war coming down or the war ending and then oil coming down jp morgan they [57:27] lifted their target to 7600 the upgrade is driven by strong momentum and ai stocks after an earlier [57:32] war driven sell-off major ai leaders like nvidia google amazon and meta have rebounded more than 20 [57:35] jp morgan expects continuous strength from ai innovation improving earnings momentum and a stronger [57:40] upcoming reporting season which is also very exciting that you're getting a lot more people [57:46] to kind of raise their targets simply because they think there's going to be more excitement [57:49] and momentum coming into this market based on earnings so deutsche bank put out a report this [57:53] morning as well we looked at a couple of this a couple of these charts yesterday net call volume [57:57] is reaching an all-time high people are buying calls like crazy or at least trading calls like [58:03] crazy and maybe that's a little toppy as well because there's too much euphoria that's getting [58:08] people to be excited and i can understand why people are a bit scared of that um which means you [58:12] know maybe there might be a pullback but i don't think that's necessarily we're going back to the [58:14] march 30th lows and so yes maybe we could get a pullback from here i don't think anyone would be [58:18] surprised but people are leaning in and if we don't have a pullback and leverage is actually your [58:24] friend right here and leaning in to leverage aka the options the margin i'm really incredibly um [58:31] intrigued by what the margin profile for finra debt will look like i mean last time i think in [58:35] march we were at like 1.2 trillion i would imagine by the end of april we're going to be pushing 1.7 1.8 [58:40] trillion of margin debt because people are probably just taking out money and putting it into the market [58:44] right now and they're willing to pay 4.25 or 6 on the interest uh you know if they can make 20 in a [58:50] week which is basically what happened since march 30th and video right there 202 45 again hymns is [58:54] down because amazon is launching their own glp program hymns down 6.5 the dow is up the nasdaq's [59:00] up iwm is up apld i'm not sure why that is up five percent but that is green we'll see if there's any [59:06] news on apld some of the other neoclouds are up nebius is up as well 1.12 then you got reddit that's up [59:13] 0.53 earnings earnings across the board have crushed uh unh is up 8.5 i know a lot of people [59:20] have been holding this one it's not been the easiest hold but congratulations if you are in [59:23] it you deserve to get the gains on this let me pull up the earnings for unh and a bunch of other [59:29] companies that we had today it seems like most of them pretty much did what they had to do wow eps [59:34] i didn't even see this this morning i saw the revenue beat not eps beat eps was a 16 beat 186 versus [59:40] 160 they definitely sandbagged on the guidance they gave last quarter which is why they probably [59:44] were able to get that massive beat eps is up 25 year-over-year revenue is up 29 year-over-year [59:49] oh sorry i'm looking at general electric not not unh okay general electric though they crushed it [59:55] uh that was good so shout out to ge where's unh's numbers unh still not bad they beat by nine percent on [1:00:03] eps 723 versus 661 not too bad revenues up two percent i was like revenues up 29 for unh what the [1:00:09] hell's going on how many people are sick like what's happening but uh ge crushed it unh crushed [1:00:16] it on the top and the bottom they beat expectations that was the most important thing and as a result [1:00:19] you're seeing ge and unh get some love 3m also not the sexiest company in the world but uh in the [1:00:25] context of utilities and industrials they are doing very well eps is up 14 year-over-year revenue is [1:00:29] up four percent they beat on revenue and they beat on eps by eight percent as well this stock is [1:00:35] down 6.4 percent of the year but these earnings not the worst things for uh for 3m as well um we [1:00:45] got four minutes until the market opens kevin wars will be testifying today unh right there up 8.3 [1:00:51] at 10 a.m we're not going to listen to the entirety of him testifying it's probably going to take like [1:00:55] two three hours but we definitely want to listen to the opening statement because he will be the [1:00:59] new chair of the fed and this guy has a lot of different thoughts about the economy about the world [1:01:03] about ai i think he is more on the camp of cutting rates trump did say this morning if uh kevin warsh [1:01:09] does not cut rates he will be disappointed so he is putting that burden on kevin warsh now kevin [1:01:14] warsh has to deal with a fed governor uh a board of a board of fed governors that are more split on the [1:01:19] idea of cutting rates so we're gonna have to see how he navigates it amazon right there 2.7 but uh today [1:01:25] we'll get the first look in terms of how he ultimately thinks of cutting rates we ball again up eight [1:01:29] percent because of the rate cut or not the rate cut the hundred million dollar share buyback [1:01:33] if we do get rate cuts that will be good for we will all right let me do a poll in the chat red [1:01:38] or green i think it's a little confusing today because we were blistering green in the pre-market [1:01:43] then trump went live and he basically said that if we're attacking and markets immediately fell on [1:01:49] that so i think now it's going to be a question of how much the markets believe that we will be [1:01:53] attacking tomorrow when the ceasefire ends at 8 p.m or how much trump will be able to potentially [1:01:59] extend the ceasefire even though he keeps saying he doesn't want to extend it which i kind of don't [1:02:02] believe him i think he does want to extend it i don't really think we've come this far to only [1:02:06] come this far and i'm gonna go right back to bombing like i just don't think that makes a lot [1:02:09] of sense tesla up 0.69 the pre-market 395 but hopefully we are able to get this deal in oil it [1:02:16] is able to come back down robin at 90 that was at 92 in the pre-market oil right now is at 87 it's not [1:02:22] that bad i mean oil is that 117 a couple weeks ago was at 94 last week now we're at 87 we haven't got [1:02:29] back above 90 so if we can keep below 90 that would be very nice and maybe that can ultimately [1:02:37] help ultimately help these equities amazon right there 2.79 again off that pump with the anthropic [1:02:45] partnership today we're going to see if that can continue bloomberg put out a report this morning [1:02:49] as well asset managers exposure to s p 500 futures has climbed to about 357 billion in net positioning [1:02:55] three weeks of positive net flows have added around 40 billion of exposure back we kind of talked about [1:03:00] this yesterday with the commodity trading advisors that are continuing to buy lots and lots and lots [1:03:05] of equities because now they're systemically kind of exposed to continue buying more with more than [1:03:09] 20 billion added in the week through april 14th the latest bout of stock gains isn't yet reflected in [1:03:14] the cftc data confirming that an upward chase is potentially at a developed stage already goldman sachs [1:03:19] did say yesterday we expect a pullback we think the rally has gone too far uh again not crazy for them [1:03:24] to say that because you know we've had an incredible rally but yesterday was the first red day of [1:03:29] this rally and it was down 0.2 i mean we haven't really seen a massive massive ugly pullback maybe [1:03:35] we see it soon but if we don't and the bulls continue to be in control and people continue to [1:03:39] buy in and money continues to come off the sad sidelines we had 200 billion dollars 175 billion [1:03:44] leave off money market funds last week maybe we get to keep this going which would be very very exciting [1:03:52] all right 20 seconds 20 seconds until we get into it 20 seconds of peace and silence before before [1:04:05] you guys know before what happens if you're new to the channel you're about to witness what happens [1:04:09] for the first time trump yapped a lot more than me today so i've still got some more yapping to do [1:04:14] but ladies and gentlemen it's tuesday april 21st 9 30 a.m the stack market is now open wake your ass up [1:04:33] let's get into it unh up 9.5 on the day congrats if you're in it it's been a tough hold but there you [1:04:41] go from 240 to 350 there you go 9.5 on the day for unh as they beat on the top and the bottom on [1:04:47] earnings smp 710 we were at 712 free market let's see can we just hold this level maybe make our way [1:04:53] back above 7 11 which is where we got a couple days ago and see if we can hold on to the green got [1:04:57] some red candles coming in gonna be a little tough to hold on to but it would be nice if we can get their [1:05:01] hymns down nine percent on amazon announcing a competitor with glp1 unfortunately this stock [1:05:08] once again uh gets questioned about its moat and today with amazon coming out with that product i [1:05:13] don't think it's necessarily going to destroy hymns but the perception is that it could which [1:05:17] is why that stock is getting hit down about nine percent right there as hymns takes a little bit of [1:05:21] beating nebius that's up 1.6 reddit is up on the day amazon 253 opens up a little bit down from 255 but [1:05:26] you're still up about 1.8 amd green 279 we hit 281 yesterday or sorry we hit 287 yesterday let's see [1:05:34] if we can get back at least above 280 which would be very very nice 3m is up 1.5 a pld is up 3 what [1:05:41] about apple that is basically flat not too bad palantir's at 145 50 that's also slightly flat core [1:05:49] weave is wow 119 core we've getting a breakout here we haven't seen 120 in a while core weave 120 right [1:05:57] there 1.83 crml down eight percent why is that down usar is up a little bit the rare earth stocks [1:06:04] getting a bit of some red candles coming in igv goes red that's going to hurt palantir adobe salesforce [1:06:10] today rocket lab goes red but still basically below 90 asts massive recovery from the lows at 70 that's [1:06:15] at 81 though that's about to go red uh crml down seven microsoft about to go red zeta went red microsoft [1:06:23] again part of igv so that why that could get hit oracle also probably could go down oh crml diluted [1:06:30] well there you go that's probably why that's taking a hit poet is that continuing to run up [1:06:34] there you go 987 on poet up 14 i think that one's getting squeezed as well we talked about this one [1:06:41] last week um it's one of the photonics plays that hasn't really moved yet so it makes sense that this [1:06:47] one is moving right here 14 on the day it was up 14 yesterday 750 to 980 on poet in the past week [1:06:53] a lot of these photonics names have moved that one has been one of the ones that hasn't adobe [1:06:57] that's now 1.4 credo that's green robin it down three percent robin it going down with the rest of [1:07:03] the market kind of going down s p is very easily about to turn red unfortunately you're seeing [1:07:09] software and fintech once again get hit which is not fun so fi goes red uh enphase up three solar edge [1:07:18] up four your um green energy names based on a report about fuel cells entering data centers [1:07:25] yesterday is probably what's bringing those up a bit more today micron that's green it's weird you [1:07:31] got micron and dell dell hitting new highs and then you have a lot of these other names that are just [1:07:36] going red novo red oss red celsius red uber potentially about to go red circle that's red about [1:07:42] three percent amd uh back to 280 yes 278 that one potentially could go red it's not really holding [1:07:49] on to any of its strength unh got a couple of red candles but still up eight percent of the day not [1:07:54] too bad the dow is very close to 50k but it's not there yet bitcoin and ethereum not really having a [1:08:00] good day at least compared to yesterday 75.9 on btc it looks like s p wants to go red but it's barely [1:08:07] holding on we'll see if that one ends up flipping bloom energy is up at least okay so your energy [1:08:16] name still getting some love which is good the energy names holding on to a bit more of their [1:08:24] strength igv 86 49 that just flipped green maybe that could flip the entire uh software sector [1:08:31] potentially flipping sofi just flipped green as well okay that's good robin it's still down two percent [1:08:35] maybe we'll see if that ends up flipping green you know the dips haven't lasted for long [1:08:41] even yesterday the market ended red but a lot of those dips were bought up i mean iren was bought [1:08:45] up nvidia was bought up nvidia literally ended green after uh almost losing 200 losing 200 in the pre [1:08:51] market or in the in the market open and it ended above 202 202 18 right here let's see if we can go [1:08:56] for 203 so many of these names just didn't stay red for long rocket lab 89 21 that one looks like it [1:09:03] could definitely flip green right here navitas that is up on the day 12 look at that getting some love [1:09:11] right there navitas and apld don't see the headline i'll see if i can find it but those two are both [1:09:16] green ionq and the quantum names are red by about two percent they rallied about 30 last week so that's [1:09:23] not too crazy amd still at 279 where is oscar which they came out with a 8k and reaffirmed their [1:09:30] fiscal year 2026 guidance that one's almost 17 11 to 17 in about two weeks not too bad for oscar 1695 [1:09:37] right there is car still halted okay i finally i finally followed out found out what happened with [1:09:41] car up six percent um this is a short squeeze but not from retail there are two hedge funds that own [1:09:49] 95 of the float and they've basically been squeezing the crap out of all the people that were short this [1:09:55] stock uh there's barely any shares outstanding i mean there's 34 million shares outstanding they own [1:09:59] the majority of it so this is a artificially manufactured short squeeze from two specific [1:10:05] hedge funds that own the majority of it um not really retail now retail if you if you bought in [1:10:11] you know before this ended up playing out then you've done well but obviously the those two firms [1:10:17] are doing the best um you had btig come out with a report on it they said um more attention is being [1:10:23] paid to transports but particularly the now the largest component in the trans index is avis budget [1:10:27] the stock was 100 in mid-march and closed above 600 yesterday we recognize there is a unique [1:10:30] situation with two holders owning a significant amount of shares thus leaving a minuscule free float [1:10:35] and as a result of that you are seeing the squeeze that stock halted right there amd at 279. so i mean [1:10:43] i wouldn't chase this right here i think it's definitely going to have a epic collapse eventually [1:10:49] uh but i also wouldn't short this because you don't know when that collapse is going to happen [1:10:53] but i don't know how long two funds are going to be able to hold the stock hostage basically there [1:10:57] is nothing fundamental about it other than market mechanics that's causing this to to really make a [1:11:01] move and really for you to have bought it at 100 200 300 you would have to have like known that [1:11:06] those hedge funds were doing that in order to believe could keep keep squeezing up higher oracle [1:11:11] right there 178 asts just went red igb 86 50 and then oracle is still green core weave as well 119 [1:11:19] is that one continues to be green sofi 1970 that one flipped up which is very nice that was red for a [1:11:29] second bloom energy still going um nice to see amd is that 230 amd or sorry 280 that's not there yet but [1:11:42] still at 279 axdi did dilute yesterday axdi down another six percent today uh walmart 127 that's red [1:11:50] circle is down three percent tsm 369 oss at 10 bucks we'll see if we get any more headlines on the war [1:11:58] we are still looking for that i got one right now iranian government spokesperson says we have two [1:12:02] lines of action war and diplomacy both operate to preserve our central goal iran's national integrity [1:12:06] and national honor any decision that is ultimately made must uphold it it is clear that if we are told [1:12:11] we have to surrender to something that is an illogical statement it cannot be justified to the [1:12:14] public we all aspire to minimize the damages as much as possible and this issue is not a trivial [1:12:18] matter it is clear that we do not want additional attacks to take place but if they do occur we will [1:12:23] certainly respond with greater force than before in other words our defense forces are on full alert [1:12:27] and at the same time we are conducting negotiations okay that's actually bullish they're basically [1:12:32] saying look we don't want a war we really don't want more attacks we're conducting negotiations but [1:12:37] if the u.s attacks will have to attack back which is i mean yeah it's natural right if one party attacks [1:12:42] the other party's gonna attack but the fact that they've admitted we are conducting negotiations maybe [1:12:47] hits back against some of the claims by the irgc that there are no negotiations uh which is good [1:12:53] because that means shady vance didn't go to pakistan for no reason today and hopefully [1:12:57] we get a deal service now 100 service now 100 a lot is green dot is green meta 672 that goes green [1:13:07] rocket lab almost 90 that goes green can the bulls step in unh almost recovering to its highs 352 [1:13:15] can the bulls step in is the question here and keep this green going 708 smp it's very close to going red [1:13:23] so unfortunately s p is just not yeah yeah nvidia just got hit hard 201 down from 203 right here but [1:13:33] you're seeing some more green candles across the board robin at 89 down from 92 still down 2.4 oscar [1:13:41] that is up service now is up amcor look at that there you go 71 on amcor as that one continues to [1:13:50] move higher up 3.5 again the semis smaller names in the semis they've just done well they've just done [1:13:59] very very well oss that's a 1007 arc 78 96 on dos at almost 11 meta right there at 671 where are you [1:14:08] seeing the negotiation news this was posted by an iranian government spokesperson on x that's where [1:14:14] we got the exact quote ap pakistan-led mediators have confirmed that usvp and iran's parliament [1:14:19] speaker will arrive in islamabad early wednesday okay perfect so the biggest question was will the [1:14:25] iranian parliament be there will they send somebody rock a lot back above 90 looks like they are and the [1:14:31] us is obviously going as well so both sides will be there which is important because we gotta get [1:14:39] this deal we gotta get this deal in place service now 100 and 30 cents block at 74 fastly down slightly [1:14:50] on the day arm at 175 carvana potentially getting a sympathy pump from car which is still halted at 668 [1:14:58] i wonder if they're gonna let this one run today or not and seeing some more of this green across the [1:15:06] board uh be yeah that's pumping from that solar fuel fuel cell news wow too i think this is an [1:15:13] all-time high on bloom 233 you know there there's a good stat i saw this morning as well i'll pull it [1:15:21] up for a second but and i think people have heard this that for a long time but essentially the argument [1:15:24] is uh buying at all-time highs is just way better than uh than than waiting for a dip i mean the stat [1:15:34] goes since 1989 if you've bought every all-time high you have outperformed buying like on a um on a [1:15:45] on a on a on a on a on a basis when the market so since 1989 money invested when the market is at [1:15:50] all-time highs has actually outperformed money invested on any other given day which is kind [1:15:54] of crazy because you would imagine that money invested on the lows would outperform but when you [1:15:58] aggregate it and then average the aggregation of all those uh buys buying on an all-time high actually [1:16:06] ends up outperforming long term as and the reason for that is because you don't want to miss the [1:16:12] rally and usually when you buy at an all-time high there is a rally that's happening yes there can be [1:16:15] some euphoria there that could potentially creating create some topping action but more often than not [1:16:20] you know you're going green so very exciting to see some of this momentum continue to play through [1:16:26] 709 on the s p as that continues to go up poet my goodness 23 percent 10 56 you talk about stocks [1:16:35] that are getting squeezed that one's getting squeezed that one is getting squeezy squeezed apple 271 [1:16:47] that yeah that's for the s p that's for the index that's not for individual stocks it's kind of like [1:16:54] if you try to time it and buy when it's low or buy when you think it's going low most people suck at [1:16:58] timing it versus if you buy at all-time highs and then just keep buying you're more likely to outperform [1:17:05] someone who's trying to wait for a timed bottom or a time dip on a you know monthly retracement and then [1:17:11] try to get back in like it's just hard the point is it's hard to time the market and so i i think [1:17:15] you might have a lot of money on the sidelines saying you know what yeah i missed smp at 6 30 [1:17:19] a couple weeks ago but i'm not going to miss it when it goes to 7 30 i'm going to buy it at 709 [1:17:24] and i think you're having a lot more money kind of coming to the market based on that perspective [1:17:28] navitas 17 percent i don't see the headline on this one but it's green yes trump was already on cbc [1:17:37] if you scroll back earlier in the show we took a look at it and uh listened to him for 35 minutes [1:17:42] didn't really say anything that was that different from what he said over the past couple days [1:17:44] so uh nothing really moving the market service now 101.85 101.85 service now now up 22 percent [1:17:53] from those lows that's a big move dude if you're a hedge fund or institution investor and you bought a [1:17:57] lot of service now in the 80s i mean you just made a lot of money for your clients and you got a really [1:18:02] easy buy theoretically because software shouldn't have sold off at uh at those levels right here amcor [1:18:11] 72.43 that one's not stopping almu that's continuing to go green do you think poets going [1:18:18] to dilute right here i mean they already diluted early in the year but i i've like stocks up 50 [1:18:26] in two days yeah i would expect them to probably dilute but maybe there's enough demand to withstand [1:18:32] some of that dilution beyond me 12 not getting a real big move here but uh it is green caesars 28 that's [1:18:42] up 1.25 rock lab 90.87 that's up 1.62 meta 674 and then you got arm at 176 sass he's trying to come [1:18:52] back uh trump just tweeted never allow the traitor democrats like low iq people hakeem jeffries or [1:18:59] crying chuck schumer or the totally corrupt fake news media such as the phony and decaying wall street [1:19:03] journal or failing new york times or dying 60 minutes to demean or criticize operation midnight hammer [1:19:08] which totally obliterated nuclear dust locations to the point where bloodthirsty iran has been able to get [1:19:12] to it or dig it out space force has cameras on every inch of the three sites that were so brilliantly [1:19:17] hit last june thank you for your attention to this matter okay that's what you got from donnie t [1:19:27] navitas semiconductor added former broadcom senior vp greg fisher as an independent director bolstering [1:19:34] its high power and ai chip bench for the next growth phase i think that is why navitas is getting a pump [1:19:41] uh because well they're bringing on some really good talent from broadcom so it makes sense for [1:19:50] that one to kind of get a kind of higher leg up and maybe it shows that they're going to be working [1:19:56] more deeply with some of these broader companies in the ai space like a broadcom carvana that [1:20:02] continues to go up wolf speeds up five uh orbs now has 336 million dollars of assets 90 million [1:20:10] of open ai 25 million of mr beast orbs invested in mr beast too i didn't know that more than 11 000 [1:20:20] eth coins and 283 million world tokens i didn't know orbs was also in the mr beast ecosystem two percent [1:20:30] on the day that's green palantir 147 back at 147 for mr pounter back at 147 hymns is it recovering hymns is [1:20:42] yeah almost it was down nine now it's down four so maybe that hopefully doesn't continue to [1:20:50] fall down red wire that's green up eight percent or up four percent right there uh robin had almost [1:20:56] trying to break even at 90 nvidia 200.98 i think nvidia wants to break at a 210 i mean it's like toying [1:21:04] with a couple extra dollars every other day and then going back down so uh i feel like earnings are [1:21:09] going to absolutely demolish and this thing is probably poised to be well above it if we have [1:21:14] a bull market continuing by then and i would imagine if microsoft amazon google meta which [1:21:18] all report on april 29th crush nvidia is going higher all of them are probably going to continue [1:21:23] to affirm the capex they're spending is bullish for nvidia bullish for amd bullish for broadcom [1:21:30] all those companies amd still trying to get 280 unh 10 357 congrats if you're in this one congrats [1:21:39] um this one took a bit of time and patience but it's green it is indeed green the dow jones [1:21:53] very close to 50 49 824 i think it touched 50 for a second let's see if it gets and it breaks up above [1:22:03] 50 which would be nice 356 right there on unh aehr they completed their dilution this morning that [1:22:12] one continues to go up 5.8 percent not slowing down as that is green pound share 147 37 let's [1:22:19] see if we can get 150 on pound you've been waiting for that for a while asts back to 83 i mean it's [1:22:23] 9 48 18 minutes since the market opened and a lot of those red candles i mean they're flipping green bloom [1:22:30] green smci almost 30 bucks up from 19 from a couple weeks ago octa that's green amazon holding 253 united [1:22:38] healthcare 10 air test systems five microsoft which was almost red now green pouncer was red now it's [1:22:43] green oscar was at 15 yesterday back at 17. the bulls aren't easily letting this go they're just not [1:22:53] they're not easily letting the market see this type of downside action bloom energy up for a car [1:23:01] unhalted 708 as it's unhalted 17 today it's kind of funny if there's only 10 shares available [1:23:11] and eight of those shares are owned and people are fighting for those last two shares which is [1:23:16] basically what's happening with car right now the stock kind of has to go up mathematically there's [1:23:22] more demand than supply and then you have shorts that have to cover which means they also have to [1:23:27] buy shares at a higher price like it's just it's just math on this one but 100 to 700 is just [1:23:34] unbelievable right here novo that's down about two percent uber's up 1.5 and then tempest that's [1:23:39] also up one percent is that the new gme yeah but it's not retail driven so i don't think it could be [1:23:43] the new gme because retail didn't really get in on the action here i mean maybe some retail did and [1:23:48] if you did congrats but this feels more manufactured by the toots which is funny because usually the [1:23:56] institutions try to get retail on their side and this time they just said you know what we're just [1:24:00] going to manipulate ourselves and make as much money the question is when do they sell the two owners [1:24:05] that own there's two funds that own most of that stock when do they sell it and then you know [1:24:11] obviously that would cause massive dump but i went that i wonder what that when that happens adobe [1:24:15] right there 250 we're trying to get back up to 250 zeta was red zeta is now green software dips getting [1:24:23] bought up software dip is getting bought up so isn't that considered a pump and dump yeah pretty much but [1:24:32] you know pump and dumps really have to do with more your public so pump and dump is like if you say [1:24:36] you're bullish on a stock you buy it you tell everyone and then as soon as they buy it you dump [1:24:40] it that's like the legal definition from my understanding how the sec considers a pump and [1:24:45] if you're a hedge fund and for months you're accumulating shares of a company knowing that [1:24:49] it's eventually going to cause a short squeeze and then you don't kind of you know publicize that [1:24:53] you're doing this you kind of just let it naturally happen which is what it seems like because i don't [1:24:56] think there's been any public content from these funds we don't even know who the funds are [1:25:01] that have these names uh it's not really a pump and dump in the same traditional sense although [1:25:06] technically it is a pump and dump and so i don't know if the sec would necessarily go after it as [1:25:10] aggressively versus roaring kitty who publicly said i'm buying gamestop he he just never sold [1:25:15] so the sec really didn't have a good case if he had sold when he went live and said that he owns [1:25:19] gamestop the sec would have an easy case because he dumped it based on the people he was telling to [1:25:24] buy it but he never you know he never he never ended up selling until like years later corby right [1:25:30] there 116 116 open door are you getting a pump open door a little bit five percent a little bit is [1:25:39] that's green chris says they can't sell until september without having to get profits to the [1:25:43] company because they're insiders okay well that means this car squeeze can probably continue going [1:25:51] we'll do some more research on this one and try to see exactly what's happening 12.9 just below 700 [1:25:56] but that is green pounder 147 22 as that one continues uh to go up equal weight s p rsp eyes first record [1:26:09] since february it's been a while since this one has got back to those highs 205 right there on the [1:26:16] equal weight as that continues to be green igv what a recovery dude look at that two percent igv was [1:26:24] down one percent as soon as the market opened it is so nice to see that get the rebound it just means [1:26:29] software is not stuck in this endless cycle of anthropic saying something and then it collapsing [1:26:35] i mean if the anthra and remember last week anthropic released 4.7 on friday and software didn't budge [1:26:42] so if we are finally done with this nonsense of anthropic ruining every software name every time they say [1:26:47] something then these stocks probably can have more freedom to just naturally make a move higher [1:26:52] sound hound up for marvell up three marvell up three as well netflix down again wow 93.99 lower than [1:27:03] where it was last thursday street really did not like those earnings i guess no one's buying this [1:27:12] on the dip and put in the chat if you're buying this right here also you know retail bought this at 70 [1:27:17] you might have a lot of retail saying look tech is back risk on is back maybe i take my 20 gain on [1:27:22] netflix and get out i saw a couple people on x sell their netflix basically from that 72 75 average and [1:27:29] i don't blame them i mean netflix didn't really show any meaningful growth and we don't know what the [1:27:35] content story is going to look like now that they don't have warner brothers so there might just be [1:27:39] more compelling opportunities tesla right there 391 tesla 391 suraj thank you for the super chat [1:27:47] is car back amid i love you no homo i appreciate the compliment thank you for being here i guess [1:27:55] car is going to be back for a while if these people have to hold this thing until september and allow [1:28:02] it to uh to to keep going open door still making a move we don't have any macro data today we did have [1:28:09] adp data uh that we talked about earlier in the morning 56 000 jobs we added in private payrolls in [1:28:16] the week through april 4th um this is up from 40 000 last week and this is the fifth consecutive [1:28:22] week of improving hiring trends retail sales we're also up 1.7 versus 1.4 expected so we had more jobs [1:28:29] and we had better retail sales hymns back to 30. look at that this is when you know it's a bull market [1:28:37] because if this was like february hymns would be down 15 on amazon headline threatening their moat [1:28:42] which has happened like 15 times over the past year and today the bulls are stepping in they're like nope [1:28:48] we don't want this to happen wow palantir are we going for 148 are we going for it here it would [1:28:57] be nice to see crowd strike also getting the breakout of crowd strike palantir data dog uh [1:29:04] service now all of them getting the love from igv pumping up s s p back to 7 10. oracle gets benefit [1:29:11] from that so if igv continues to keep moving you should see inflows into all the software names amazon [1:29:17] still at 252 still at 252. spacex draft ipo says elon musk bought 1.4 billion of employee [1:29:29] shares last year and could receive 60 million more shares of the company's market cap climbs towards 6.6 [1:29:35] trillion wow the filing also points to a dual class structure that would give must super voting shares [1:29:44] i think the fomo on asts and rocket lab and lunar and that entire space race asts right there at 84 bucks [1:29:52] is going to be massive like we've been talking about this for months it's part of the reason [1:29:56] i bought rocket lab um in the march dip it's part of the reason i bought asts last week [1:30:02] um i think the fomo is going to be heavy when spacex goes public and that thing opens up at 2.5 [1:30:08] 2.7 trillion which yeah valuation wise is not going to make sense but nonetheless you know it's [1:30:13] probably going to happen um everything in space is going to pump and i don't think it's crazy as a [1:30:18] short-term trade to just have some space exposure because the prices are kind of crazy as paying for [1:30:24] them as investments right now like i agree with that like i don't think these companies are [1:30:27] actually worth the prices that they're being shown right now but if the momentum's towards space i [1:30:32] mean people are going to want exposure they're going to want exposure and realistically dude if [1:30:39] the underwriters on spacex think they can raise 75 billion in the ipo and elon's comp is at 6.6 [1:30:45] trillion i mean they must feel really confident that there's going to be enough demand and if there's [1:30:50] not it's going to be an epic failure and it's going to be really ugly but if there is this thing is [1:30:56] going up and it's going to have an elon premium for a long time microsoft 423 amazon at 250. kevin [1:31:07] warsch is going to be on at 10 a.m so we got about five minutes and then we'll see what kevin warsch [1:31:10] says i don't think he'll say anything that can necessarily tank the mark if anything i can i think [1:31:13] kevin warsch can pump the markets because he's a hawk but he real from my research he really really [1:31:19] believes in ai being deflationary and i hope he talks about that today because if he does he's basically [1:31:26] signaling to everybody that he thinks we are getting ready for one of the greatest times [1:31:31] uh in economic history around the level of innovation and then as a result the level of [1:31:36] deflation in in the prices of goods and services that we're going to see as an economy which means [1:31:40] we need lower rates and guess what that means growth stocks are going to catch a bid whether [1:31:45] you think they deserve it or not the cost of capital goes down people are going to start buying more [1:31:49] equities so i mean maybe that's also why trump picked him to be maybe you know i've been trying to [1:31:53] figure out why did trump pick this guy because he seems like a traditional hawk and i think the [1:31:58] reason is because he so deeply believes in this ai deflationary narrative that that's how he's going [1:32:03] to be able to convince the fed governor is not on inflation because of consumer confidence not on [1:32:08] uh labor market statistics but rather this macro technological tailwind of ai and maybe some [1:32:15] of the other fed shares like a rick reader didn't really believe in it that much and that's why kevin [1:32:19] warsch got the job smci up 2.84 poet down from 11 but still up 20 of the day and then [1:32:24] pound here cracking through 148 wow service now 104 104 on mr service now microsoft also continuing [1:32:37] to make the move i mean igv we haven't had a 2.3 day in a while it's nice to finally see that [1:32:47] make a move put in the chat if you're gonna be buying the spacex ipo put in the chat or if your [1:32:53] exposure is uh is via a proxy i'm curious to see how many people are gonna buy it regardless just [1:33:04] because they think it could pump fastly also getting a little bit of move up four percent [1:33:07] 26.45 stock was at 25.50 two days ago yes yes yes no hell no hell no hell freaking no [1:33:24] already have rock lab already have rock lab i'll wait okay so a lot of you guys are gonna wait i [1:33:30] think a lot of other retail investors are gonna buy the out of it i really think that thing's gonna pump [1:33:37] and if it does pump it should carry the entire industry with it and who knows maybe space becomes [1:33:43] a new sort of commercial economy that just gets a lot more people excited and you know it ends up [1:33:48] becoming this thing like semiconductors weren't exciting to invest in until realistically chat gbt [1:33:54] i mean they've always had a cyclical narrative to it then chat gbt came out everyone realized [1:33:58] we meet a lot of semiconductors a lot of gpus and then boom it became a thing if space as an economy [1:34:03] starts to form as an industry and the amds the nvidia's the broadcoms are the spacex's the rocket [1:34:09] labs the asts's then maybe those names continue to hold a premium but they're gonna eventually have [1:34:15] to show the earnings growth to match up with it because all the semiconductor names eventually [1:34:17] showed massive earnings growth to justify kind of where they're at microsoft 423 pounder 148 35 [1:34:26] um amd back to 280 once again there you go back to 280 oh by the way jeff bezos is raising 10 billion [1:34:38] dollars on a fund uh that's worth 38 billion and this fund is called prometheus and the entire idea [1:34:47] of this fund is that it's an ai lab they're basically going to be investing in a bunch of [1:34:52] these manufacturing ai companies and they're going to be using all the data they get from that uh from [1:34:57] those investments to then essentially make them more efficient and then buy other manufacturing hubs [1:35:03] and basil's essentially is trying to say i'm gonna like usher in this productivity boom when it comes to [1:35:08] manufacturing and efficiencies inside of warehouses obviously he comes from amazon so he knows a lot [1:35:11] about that uh via just buying up all these smaller companies are investing in them and so that fund [1:35:17] raising 10 billion dollars at a 38 billion valuation i wonder when that goes public and see kind of where [1:35:24] the market would think of it from there by the way morgan stanley put out a chart this morning they [1:35:28] also think productivity is going to go through the roof right here uh as you can see ai adoption from [1:35:34] 2020 to 2025 has led the productivity boom the last time we had anything that was even similar to that [1:35:39] was 1995 to 2000 which obviously was the internet boom if ai can replicate that level of growth then [1:35:47] maybe we're going to see a lot more people get oh we got the fed chair kevin warsh statement he's not [1:35:55] live yet but here is what he said let's take a look at that and then we'll flip over to him once he goes [1:36:01] live um kevin warsh and guys there was a setup because worship you know released his opening testimony [1:36:06] here and i think this was the money line because it kind of gets to the heart of what i think a lot [1:36:11] of the questions will center around which is fed independence here's what we expect the nominee kevin [1:36:17] warsh to say i do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly [1:36:22] threatened when elected officials presidents senators or members of the house state their views on interest [1:36:28] rates central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners in other [1:36:35] words we can still be independent and tune out the noise when the president tells us we want lower [1:36:41] interest rates so i expect to hear that kind of thing and we heard from president trump this morning [1:36:46] on squawk box and he very much made clear he still expects lower interest rates and is going to keep the [1:36:51] heat on with this criminal investigation against powell and railed against how expensive the fed renovation [1:36:58] the building was again right which then puts the focus back on i guess senator tillis what it has [1:37:04] been his continued opposition to uh confirming wars if that investigation continues correct and that's [1:37:12] going to be the barrier the roadblock and then uh when is powell's term up may 15th and so what would [1:37:18] happen if we didn't have a confirmed nominee well i guess you could have powell as he said laid out [1:37:23] before stay in the role and then in the past that has happened didn't trump say he would fire him [1:37:29] well trump has said that but i think trump is didn't just supreme court battle now in terms [1:37:33] of whether he has yeah we don't even know to do it but he did say last week that he would fire i [1:37:37] thought in another interview that he would fire power he's threatened that for a while right but it [1:37:41] was much more specific to if he stays in his in his current i was going to say clearly a lot of [1:37:46] the questionable whether he can honestly right and a lot of the question clearly is going to be about [1:37:50] you know wash whether he'll be responsive to the economy or the staff comments on the powell [1:37:54] investigation okay doesn't look like he was up for some questions from emily from emily wilkins [1:38:07] okay so we'll get worse in a second we'll see what he says uh but basically his statements are [1:38:14] we are committed to monetary policy independence inflation is a choice the fed must take responsibility [1:38:20] and fed independence doesn't extend beyond monetary policy so kind of some basic statements nothing [1:38:25] too crazy we'll see more what he says later when he starts which should be in a couple minutes look [1:38:31] i i watched a bunch of videos and interviews of this guy over the weekend i i don't think he's [1:38:37] going to be a bad fed chair i just i wonder how hawkish he's really going to be and you know time [1:38:44] will tell but from my understanding he seems really optimistic around ai which should be good for rates [1:38:51] but if he's kind of playing both sides and maybe he ends up being more hawkish than not and we don't [1:38:56] get rate cuts for a while i know trump's going to have a new punching bag because he's going to be [1:38:59] pretty upset given trump handpicked this guy uh but maybe warsh also got the memo that the reason he [1:39:05] was picked was to to get these rates to come down oh yeah we are getting the pentagon budget today for [1:39:13] defense 1.5 trillion is the number includes 68 billion for 18 warships and 16 support ships okay so we're [1:39:24] gonna get a lot more data today around this 1.5 trillion this is also very bullish palantir on dos [1:39:31] kratos lockheed raytheon any of your defense contractors this is also bullish spacex their [1:39:36] defense contractor uh rocket lab golden dome and roll if we actually spend almost two trillion on [1:39:43] defense it's gonna go to a lot of defense contractors and a lot of companies and there's [1:39:51] a bunch of public ones that people are invested in that potentially could benefit from that as well [1:39:54] yeah it's very bullish space so uh i'll try to get the exact details on that 1.5 trillion [1:40:01] and we'll see what exactly the administration is asking for wars is still not live yet he's not [1:40:07] talking yet as soon as he starts talking i will flip over to him right now a couple senators are [1:40:13] talking they're making their opening statements and then we'll see if that flips why cyber security [1:40:20] pumping today honestly i think it's part of the mythos model proving that we need more cyber security [1:40:24] that's been kind of a macro tailwind for them but also igv finally getting a real recovery is helping [1:40:30] the cyber names and the most sold-off names which was crowd strike palo alto a lot of those over the [1:40:37] past past couple of weeks why is open door up i don't think there's a specific reason other than [1:40:44] high beta getting some love pending home sales were up 1.5 percent oh this is the reason the estimate [1:40:50] was 0.5 march pending home sales 1.5 that's a hundred basis point increase versus expectation [1:40:58] on the amount of homes we sold in march in march rates were still kind of high so like people might [1:41:06] be still getting a bit more bullish on housing and are willing to pay higher rates i mean my sister [1:41:13] bought a house she was willing to pay a higher rate i think her interest rate came in at 6.1 and right [1:41:18] now the average is at 6.4 but that's probably why open doors getting some love amd 281 281 uh pentagon [1:41:27] defense budget includes autonomous warfare for 55 billion they're requesting 85 f-35 aircrafts and [1:41:36] 6.1 billion for the next gen b-21 bomber and then 65 billion for 18 warships and 16 support ships [1:41:43] on this 1.5 trillion we'll probably get some more details throughout the day on how much [1:41:48] they want to spend in different areas microsoft 423 unh at 354 again pending home sales we're up 1.5 [1:41:55] month over month in the month of march which is good for lanar oh qxo by the way brad jacobs uh i [1:42:02] have never listened to an interview of this guy they made an acquisition yesterday for bld they spent 17 [1:42:06] billion bucks he went on cnbc and literally said the reason the stock is down is because of the shorts [1:42:12] and i love squeezing the shorts i didn't know that guy was that type of guy like i you know most ceos [1:42:19] they don't want to mention that stuff they don't want to talk about the stock they don't want to talk [1:42:21] about the shorts like he straight up said yeah i love squeezing the shorts and i was like hold on [1:42:26] that's getting me kind of interested i already know he's a rock star stocks bit of a discount [1:42:31] based on this acquisition and now you got a ceo who's not afraid to talk that talk it's interesting i [1:42:37] know steve likes that name so maybe it requires a little bit more deals yeah alex carp is the only [1:42:42] person i've ever heard you know talk about the shorts that openly so i was pretty impressed wow [1:42:47] pound your 149 let me check 150 resistance let's see if we can get it let's see if we can get [1:42:55] it 150 has 48 000 shares 48 000 yes elon as well that's true it's just you know elon is elon he [1:43:06] can get away with a lot of stuff but brad jacobs i didn't expect him to just straight up say it like [1:43:12] that so you got qxo that's slightly down a bit on the day kevin war still not live yet you still have [1:43:18] the senators that are talking waiting for them to be done and then we will get to then we'll get to [1:43:28] kevin warsh iot that's making a little bit of a run today four percent all your software names [1:43:34] should be getting some love ups and fedex have begun filing for tariff refunds you got about 167 [1:43:39] billion dollars that will start to be refunded which theoretically could stimulate the economy [1:43:45] if a bunch of these small businesses get their refunds and start spending back into it now it's [1:43:49] going to explode our debt but you know everything's going to explode our debt so maybe that money going [1:43:55] back to the economy is not the worst thing smp 711 let's see if we can break 712 that's the pre-market [1:44:02] high that's the pre pre-market high yeah so if i will have earnings on april april 29th is going to [1:44:15] be crazy so far in the morning uh fed j pal in the evening i think it's one of his last meetings [1:44:21] that he's going to have his fed chair uh and then you have microsoft amazon google meta qualcomm [1:44:28] chipotle carvana ford cheesecake teladoc sprouts farmers i mean you just have so much that day [1:44:38] so the 29th is going to be it's going to be pretty well okay they still don't have warsh live they [1:44:45] still have the senators talking we're waiting for him to deliver his opening statement uh amd 281 [1:44:52] pound you're very close to 150 oscar still moving 1679 you've got paypal also that's cracked above 50 51 [1:45:00] as this thing was down even further robin just tweeted we've seen your questions and want to [1:45:05] provide an update on the upcoming pattern day trading rule change the 25 000 equity requirement [1:45:10] is on its way out our teams have been building we're fully tested and are standing by to flip [1:45:13] the switch it's probably going to take them two months officially for the sec to allow it but that's [1:45:21] another bullish thing for robin hood for weeble for ibkr for all those companies d wave down a little [1:45:28] a little bit on the day oracle 181 core weave at 117 117 right here uh okay so more updates on spacex [1:45:45] musk will receive a stock incentive for every 500 billion increase in market cap which goes as high [1:45:54] as the 6.6 trillion a total of about 60 million shares which i would imagine is a couple hundred [1:46:01] billion dollars basically he's getting and then if the space data centers can deliver [1:46:06] wow a hundred terawatts of compute per year is that real a hundred terawatts of compute per year [1:46:19] we can barely do one gigawatt on planet earth right now i mean one gigawatt takes like eight [1:46:27] months to set up and ten billion dollars if the space data centers can deliver a hundred terawatts [1:46:33] which is a thousand gigawatts of compute per year then musk gets an incentive every 500 billion dollar [1:46:40] increase i mean dude if he does that he deserves all the money in the world if they i mean these [1:46:48] are just ridiculous numbers given the level of uh you know given the level of execution it takes to [1:46:55] put up even one data center on planet earth like it's not easy to do that stuff not at all i mean [1:47:03] this is kind of reminds me of tesla 2018 with that pay package right like like no one thought they would [1:47:07] actually be able to sell that many cars or i think the market cap he had to get was like 350 billion he [1:47:11] ended up getting it to a trillion and then he got his package marvell right there that's a four percent [1:47:17] as well let me just confirm how many gigawatts are in a terawatt i believe it's a thousand right [1:47:27] uh yes a thousand so he's talking about a hundred terawatts which is ten thousand gigawatts per year [1:47:38] in space that is crazy dude we don't even have the infrastructure to really have meaningful data [1:47:45] center capacity in space jensen talked about that a couple weeks ago he's like we're not really there [1:47:49] yet but hopefully we get there oh my goodness if he gets it done he gets it done and and you know [1:47:57] the other way i think they get to a higher market cap is just obviously by merging tesla and space [1:48:01] like together which at this point i think is inevitable i think it just makes sense the question [1:48:04] is going to be when they end up when they end up doing that service now 103.79 oh sorry you guys [1:48:13] are right a hundred thousand not ten thousand yeah so if one terawatt is uh a thousand gigawatts then [1:48:20] a hundred terawatts is a hundred thousand gigawatts and it's not once it's per year it sounds kind of [1:48:30] crazy but also that's why i guess his comp is going to be that high to get there igv still up 2.4 [1:48:39] okay let's go to the senate hearing he's not live yet uh i imagine he's about to talk in a second [1:48:45] who's speaking right now uh well okay we have uh we have miss a little yes he watches up next [1:49:00] sign up here and the day of the year on the day the day comes corruption third the nominee before us [1:49:04] today kevin warsch is uniquely ill suited for the job as fed chair in our meeting last week we [1:49:12] discussed the 2008 financial crash where 8 million people lost their jobs 10 million people [1:49:20] lost their homes and millions more lost their life savings giant banks however got hundreds of [1:49:28] billions of dollars in bailouts. Mr. Warsh was a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011. That's before, [1:49:37] during, and after the crash. And he said to me that he has no regrets about anything he did. [1:49:45] So let's take a deeper dive into Mr. Warsh's record. In the years leading up to the 2008 [1:49:51] financial crisis, he was an enthusiastic cheerleader for credit default swaps and [1:49:58] complex securitizations. He dismissed repeated and increasingly urgent concerns from housing [1:50:06] advocates across the country regarding subprime mortgages. He refused to use the Fed's authorities [1:50:13] to address the risks that were building in the financial system. And when the crisis hit and the [1:50:20] economy blew up, Warsh took on the job of Wall Street's personal liaison on the Fed board. [1:50:28] He was quick to respond to concerns from Wall Street CEOs, and he worked tirelessly to arrange [1:50:36] multibillion-dollar bailouts for them with nothing for American families. No regrets, he says. No [1:50:44] regrets. After the crash, most people on the Fed saw millions of Americans unemployed. People had lost [1:50:52] their homes and said, now might be a good time to lower rates and make the cost of borrowing cheaper [1:50:59] for businesses to avoid more layoffs and make it cheaper for Americans who are worried about paying [1:51:06] their mortgages or their credit cards. But not Mr. Warsh. Nope. He wanted to keep interest rates high. [1:51:13] And he sang the same song for more than a decade, even as the economy struggled. When the job of Fed [1:51:21] chair became available during Trump's first term as president, Warsh held on to his high interest rate [1:51:29] inflation hawk views, and Trump passed him by. Regretful, he soon reversed course and called for the Fed [1:51:38] to pause interest rate hikes. Then, once Trump left office, Mr. Warsh flipped again and was even [1:51:48] criticizing the Fed for cutting rates in the fall of 2024. But as soon as Donald Trump became president [1:51:56] a second time, Warsh reversed himself once more and began shouting from the rooftops about how the Fed [1:52:04] should cut interest rates. Evidently, he learned his lesson. This time around, he sucked up to Donald [1:52:11] Trump to snag his dream job. Mr. Chairman, last week, every single Democratic member of this committee [1:52:18] asked that you postpone this hearing and instead conduct oversight on the president's role in directing [1:52:25] bogus criminal probes into Chair Powell and Governor Cook. The Senate should not be aiding and abetting [1:52:32] Donald Trump's illegal takeover of the Fed by installing his chosen sock puppet as chair. It's an [1:52:41] invitation for corruption and for economic catastrophe. We have the power to stop it and we should be using [1:52:50] that power. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, there you have it. I'll just say it is interesting that [1:53:04] we're going to hear from Senator Dave McCormick and his introduction of Kevin Warsh, who was last time [1:53:10] unanimously confirmed. Okay, we'll wait for a couple minutes. Let's see if we can get Warsh. I think they [1:53:16] have another couple senators potentially to keep giving their opening statement. 732 on Carr. It's halted [1:53:22] again. It looks like this thing is just going up. So this is what the Wall Street Journal reported on [1:53:30] this morning. Because SRS, which is one of the hedge funds that owns it, is considered an insider [1:53:35] given its ownership position and it has two representatives on Carr's board. It likely cannot [1:53:39] sell any shares during Carr's current quiet period ahead of the first quarter results. We also note that [1:53:44] SRS only has sold shares in Carr once initially accumulating at stake, that being the sale of 1 million [1:53:49] shares in August of 2023. Based on our interpretation of the provision, it's unlikely that Pentwater, [1:53:55] the other hedge fund, sells any car stock before at least September 20th due to the potential insider [1:54:01] status owning more than 10% of the shares that are outstanding. So yeah, it looks like this car thing [1:54:08] is going to continue. I don't know if that means it's a good buy right here, but it does mean that [1:54:12] potentially you're not going to see a dramatic decline easily if the two institutions that own it are [1:54:19] essentially considered insiders and aren't allowed to sell it. Are they not allowed to dilute? That's [1:54:24] a good question. Because if I'm the board of directors of Carr, why wouldn't I issue at least, [1:54:31] I don't know, a couple hundred million? It will get swallowed up really quick, right? That's a good [1:54:37] question. Well, the hedge fund though, SRS, has two representatives on the board. Usually to dilute, [1:54:44] you need board approval. And if those two representatives don't vote for the approval to dilute, then maybe [1:54:51] that doesn't allow them to easily do it. It's kind of crazy, dude. This institution [1:54:58] probably doesn't give a crap about Carr stock. They just love that the squeeze is happening and [1:55:02] they're just waiting for their moment to get out. But because they have board representation, [1:55:05] they have a lot more control to navigate it. Corby right there, 117, Oracle 181, [1:55:14] Bitcoin 76,200, as that is also still green. What is Carr? It's a rental company for cars, [1:55:25] which we're forced to talk about because it's pulled a 7X in less than a month. TSM not getting [1:55:32] any love even after those earnings. A lot of these smaller semiconductor names made a move, [1:55:37] but not TSM. Can they resign from the board and sell? No, because they would still have 10% ownership. [1:55:47] So they would still technically be an insider. As soon as you get 10% ownership of a company, [1:55:53] you have to file a form with the SEC, especially if you're not like C-suite and the SEC needs to know [1:56:00] that you own 10% of this and the public needs to know. So at this point, if they're owning almost [1:56:04] 50% of the float, or I should say 80% of the float, then they can't easily sell that. [1:56:13] Navitas is up because they hired a Broadcom director. That's why Navitas is up. [1:56:21] Some stats on the semis. So SOX, which is your semiconductor ETF, 34% in the past 14 days, [1:56:30] best run since 2002. It's 42% above the 2000 dot-com bubble peak of 0.95 on its ratio relative [1:56:44] to the S&P. So the SOX over the S&P is at 1.35, an all-time high, which is 42% above the dot-com [1:56:53] bubble peak of 0.95. And it's rallied for 14 consecutive trading sessions, the second largest [1:56:59] in history. It's on track to exceed its record 15-day stretch set in 2014. It's up 1%, which [1:57:05] means if it continues green today, it'll be the longest stretch in history. So people are piling [1:57:14] into the semis. People are piling in to the semis. Cars unhalted. Let's see where it goes. [1:57:21] And it's going up, going up 740 here, as that is green. Yeah, 100 terawatts, 100,000 gigawatts, [1:57:35] dude. That is just incredible. Kevin Warsh, still not live yet. Let me pull up that SpaceX report. [1:57:40] But my goodness, if Elon's talking about 100,000 gigawatts a year, you know, but see, [1:57:47] here's the thing. Here's the other thing about this. I think this also is part of the story. [1:57:57] Like, it's probably unreasonable. Like, my gut reaction tells me, it's a little unreasonable to [1:58:01] assume 100,000 gigawatts of compute from space base data centers in a year. But if retail investors [1:58:09] see that that's his incentive and they believe he can execute on it eventually, they might just [1:58:14] buy the stock anyway. Right? So, I mean, this is kind of what happened in 2018. Absurd expectations. [1:58:20] Retail was like, well, if he does it, he's going to make us all rich. They took a chance on him. He [1:58:24] did it. A lot of retail got rich. What if that's the same playbook? Now, Tesla was not at a $2 trillion [1:58:30] valuation at the time. It was at 50 billion in 2018. But, and that's a big but, because valuation is [1:58:37] a little different here. But if the same sort of qualitative analysis applies, which is that [1:58:44] Elon is going to take us to the moon, literally, then maybe you take a chance with the stock. And [1:58:50] maybe that's what gets retailed back on. Car at 711. S&P also at 710. Pound two right there, [1:58:58] 148.32. OSS up 1.28%. Poet is up because Marvell got a big deal with Google. Poet's one of the [1:59:07] suppliers for Google in the optic space. Also, there's a high short flow. So, probably getting [1:59:13] a bit of a squeeze right there. And that's why that stock is green. Rocket Lab back to 90. [1:59:20] Did we cover the Lilly records this morning? What happened with Lilly? Why is Lilly down 3%? I know [1:59:25] they did an acquisition yesterday. Oh, is it because of the Amazon GLP stuff? I mean, look, [1:59:31] I think HIMSS is more susceptible to Amazon's GLP over Lilly. But obviously, that could affect Lilly [1:59:39] as well. Probably why Nobo got hit. Is Warsh there? He's speaking. Okay, Warsh is live. Here [1:59:46] we go. Kevin Warsh, the potential. Home pay will accelerate. I share the President's confidence [1:59:56] in our country and its people. America's economic growth potential is rising as we sit here today. [2:00:04] I'm also especially happy that my wife Jane is here. She's been with me for many of the most [2:00:09] important moments in my life. I'm grateful for her love and her personal accomplishments. [2:00:16] I reciprocate that with somewhat of my own love, though I'm a little more stoic than she. [2:00:22] And about every 20 years, I reintroduce her to this committee. She sat behind me 20 years ago, [2:00:30] and it was almost 20 years ago to the day. And so, let me offer today what I said then. Jane, [2:00:36] happy anniversary. I'm also thinking of my late mom and dad. They were paying great attention to this [2:00:45] hearing 20 years ago. They're no longer with us. But I was always proud of them and the values they [2:00:52] taught me. And I hope they'd be proud of me today. We start today with a note of broad agreement, [2:00:59] even though we might have heard different narratives at the outset of this hearing. [2:01:03] This is a time of great consequence for the nation's economy. As a former Fed governor and friend or [2:01:11] colleague of the last five Fed chiefs, from whom I've learned plenty of lessons, I'm particularly [2:01:17] alert to the challenges and opportunities confronting the institution that I cherish, [2:01:24] the Federal Reserve. To the President, to the Congress, the nation, I owe my best judgment [2:01:32] and my most faithful efforts in serving the mission that you and Congress assigned to the Federal Reserve, [2:01:39] including full employment and stable prices. The American people are counting on the Fed to deliver [2:01:45] on its commitments, perhaps now more than ever. The real highlights of my life are not on my resume, [2:01:53] as Senator McCormick said. They include the individuals with whom I worked [2:01:57] and from whom I learned. I graduated from high school in upstate New York. I had some exceptional [2:02:04] teachers there and some brilliant classmates. I've learned we're lucky in life if we start out with [2:02:11] good influences in learning and in character. A public school education gave me both of these, [2:02:18] and I'm grateful. I made my way to Stanford and found myself in the company of some of the most [2:02:23] highly accomplished economists and policymakers. George Schultz, former Secretary of State and [2:02:29] Treasuring, was among the great patriots at the Hoover Institution, who I came to know as a teacher, [2:02:35] mentor, and friend. He passed away right after COVID at age 100, but I still feel him with me. I could not [2:02:43] have imagined a better formative experience than working from and learning from folks like him. I could [2:02:50] tell you about all the things I learned, but maybe the most important was to be around people completely [2:02:56] devoted to the ideas and ideals of our country. Silicon Valley in the early 90s, another fitting [2:03:03] backdrop for all the things we confront today. I found myself in the right place at the right time. [2:03:10] The U.S. was at the vanguard of a new era of technological leadership, and I just looked out [2:03:15] my door to see it. In the last 15 years, I've gained deep experience in macro and in markets, [2:03:22] working with Stan Druckenmiller. He never held a position in government, but is no less a patriot. [2:03:27] He never got a PhD in economics, but I don't know a finer economic thinker. Without their guidance, [2:03:34] and the guidance of Condi Rice, my friend and I should say my boss at the Hoover Institution, [2:03:40] I doubt I would be sitting before you today as the president's Fed chairman nominee, [2:03:46] but I'm certain of one thing. Absent their tutelage, absent their example, [2:03:51] I would not be as prepared for the urgent, mission-critical task at hand. In between these [2:03:57] bookend experiences, I served quite a while ago as a governor of the Federal Reserve at the birth, [2:04:07] at the onset of the financial crisis. As Senator Warren said, our central bank played an indispensable [2:04:13] role, and we benefited enormously from the credibility that our predecessors had built up [2:04:20] and passed down to us, governors of the Fed at the time. In these unusual and exigent circumstances, [2:04:26] I saw the Fed and its people at their very best, but I also witnessed an institution that was tempted [2:04:33] to play a larger role in the economy and society. So let me be very clear. Monetary policy independence [2:04:42] is essential. Monetary policy makers must act in the nation's interest. Their decision is the product [2:04:49] of rigor, deliberation, and unclouded decision making. And as Senator Warren said, I do not believe [2:04:56] that independence of monetary policy is threatened when elected officials state their views on rates. [2:05:01] Fed independence is up to the Fed. That has three implications. First, Congress is tasked with the [2:05:10] mission to ensure price stability. Inflation is the Fed's choice. Second, Fed independence is at its peak [2:05:17] in the conduct of monetary policy. And third, as the chairman said, the Fed must stay in its lane. I'm [2:05:25] committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent, equally committed [2:05:32] to work with the administration and Congress on non-monetary matters that are part of the Fed's [2:05:37] remit. And I commit myself to accountability. Finally, I'll just say this, Mr. Chairman. Milton Friedman [2:05:45] had a phrase that always stayed with me. He always worried about government officials that lured and [2:05:51] hung around with what he called the tyranny of the status quo. Status quo practices and policies are [2:05:57] especially harmful when the world is changing this fast. If confirmed as chairman, I will be faithful to [2:06:04] the Constitution, to the Federal Reserve Act, and to the very best of the Fed's traditions. I believe [2:06:10] a reform-oriented Fed can make a real difference to the American people. And if confirmed, I will seek [2:06:16] to create an environment in which the best people do their best work. Candor and goodwill will go a long [2:06:22] way in pursuing those objectives. And I suspect this hearing, Mr. Chairman, will put us to the test. It's a [2:06:28] real privilege to be. Thank you, sir. I will say that we typically stick to a five-minute opening [2:06:35] comments. And I would encourage all of us to stick with our five minutes as it relates to our question [2:06:41] and answers. We have full attendance today, and it's going to be really important for us to stick as [2:06:45] closely to the five minutes as possible. If we go by much, you'll hear me, which is an indication that [2:06:53] you're already over. And I'll do my very best to keep us on time. Kevin, there are so many questions [2:07:01] to talk to you about, to ask you about, to be honest with you. And I just want to name a couple [2:07:06] of them. And we'll look forward to hearing more on these topics. I will not have enough time to delve [2:07:12] into some of the most important issues facing our country. I'll take two of those issues and focus my [2:07:17] time. I'm sure my colleagues on either side will have a conversation with you and ask questions about [2:07:23] AI. The AI future is going to have massive impact on where we go as a nation. It's got a massive [2:07:30] impact on your dual mandate as it relates to full employment. Our production may go up while our [2:07:36] employment stays flat. I'm not sure why Larry Fitz is there, but he is. So I don't know. If [2:07:44] everyone asks me, I have no idea, but I guess he's there to figure out if we lower rates or not. [2:07:51] Preserve too much attention has been paid to your balance sheet and not enough attention has been [2:07:56] paid to the nation's balance sheet. I think it's really important for us to dig into that issue as [2:08:02] well. Digital assets, the future of finance in the world seems to have a major component of being [2:08:08] artificial, being a digital assets, the market structure legislation. We don't want your comment on, [2:08:13] but the important role of the blockchain in the future is another really important part of the [2:08:19] future of our economy. I will spend some time talking about affordability and the importance [2:08:28] of the independence of the Fed. One of the things I have appreciated about your previous comments is [2:08:33] the importance that you have placed on the dual mandate, stable prices, which typically comes through [2:08:39] the form of interest rate changes, as well as promoting maximum employment. I think those two will become [2:08:45] more challenging in the current environment, one obviously, the second one being the AI and the [2:08:50] future of full employment. You've criticized the Federal Reserve for getting too big, mismanaging [2:08:57] inflation. I'm sure you know the definition of transitory, so I won't ask you, but I've got a [2:09:01] feeling you know it. Some of your predecessors did not. Compromising the independence of the Fed, [2:09:06] I think we should spend more time on finance, less time on climate change, on politics, on who is or [2:09:14] who's not in charge. I think you would agree on those issues, though I will not ask you. I will ask you, [2:09:20] however, under your leadership, how will you steer the Federal Reserve to address the real life issues [2:09:28] of affordability is my first question. And my second question will be about how do you make sure that the [2:09:34] Federal Reserve stays out of the lane of external influences? Well, thank you, Mr. Chairman. [2:09:43] There's probably no more pressing question than the cost of living. We know at the Federal Reserve [2:09:50] that price stability was an objective that you and your colleagues gave to the Fed. So when over the [2:09:57] course of the last several years, especially after COVID, when prices went up to the tune of 25 to 35 [2:10:05] percent for virtually all deciles of the American people, that's an indication that the Fed missed [2:10:11] its mark. And we are still dealing with the legacy of the policy errors in 2021 and 2022. Once you let [2:10:21] inflation take hold in the economy, it's more expensive and harder to bring it down. And so the [2:10:28] fatal policy error going back four or five years is still a legacy that we're dealing with. We need, [2:10:34] in my judgment, fundamental policy reforms to fix it. And while it's true that inflation is less [2:10:41] problematic, meaning the rate of change in prices is less severe than it was some years ago, hardworking [2:10:47] Americans are no doubt feeling it. I think that means a regime change in the conduct of policy. I think [2:10:53] that means a different new inflation framework. I look forward to working with my colleagues at the [2:10:58] Fed, if confirmed, to achieve that. I think it means, as you suggested, using tools differently. [2:11:05] The Fed has an interest rate tool and a balance sheet tool. My view is the interest rate tool gets [2:11:11] in the cracks. It's fairer. The balance sheet tool disproportionately helps those with financial assets. [2:11:17] The interest rate tool hits the entire economy. So we need a new framework, new tools. And I'd also say, [2:11:23] Mr. Chairman, new communications. Yes. I think part of the reason why, after making a mistake in 2021 [2:11:30] and 22, the mistake was compounded, is the Fed gives its forward guidance. The Fed tells the whole world [2:11:37] what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be. Well, the Fed's human. Then they hold [2:11:43] on to those forecasts longer than they should. I think that if the Fed were to wait until it gets into [2:11:48] a meeting before making a decision, that incremental deliberation can keep the central bank from [2:11:54] compounding its errors. I think these are big changes that are needed. And if confirmed, I look [2:11:58] forward to doing it. Thank you very much. Banking member Warren. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. So the Fed [2:12:04] has been plagued by deeply disturbing ethics scandals in recent years, involving at least six Fed officials. [2:12:13] So it's critical that the next chair have no financial conflicts, none. You have more than a hundred [2:12:20] million dollars in investments that you have refused to disclose to ethics officials and to the public. [2:12:26] So let me ask, do the Juggernaut Fund or the THSDFS LLC invest in any companies affiliated with President [2:12:38] Trump or his family, companies that have facilitated money laundering, Chinese-controlled companies, [2:12:45] or financing vehicles established by Jeffrey Epstein. Senator Warren, thank you. So let me first share [2:12:54] a point of agreement with you. The Fed has two tools. One is its monetary policy, and the second is its [2:13:01] credibility. And the scandals that you talked about, the ethics problems you talked about, went to the core [2:13:07] of the credibility that has hurt the Fed. Could you answer my question, please? I ask, [2:13:11] you have a hundred million dollars in undisclosed assets. And what I'm asking is, are any of those [2:13:18] with this outfit that invests in companies affiliated with President Trump or his family, [2:13:26] companies that have facilitated money laundering, Chinese-controlled companies, [2:13:30] or financing vehicles set up by Jeffrey Epstein? It's a yes or no question. Senator, I have worked [2:13:36] tirelessly with the ethics officials at the Office of Government Ethics. Yes, and you have not [2:13:40] revealed a hundred million dollars in assets. Come do an ethics agreement with them and have agreed, [2:13:43] Senator, to sell all of my financial assets, including the Duquesne assets. Mr. Horst, are you refusing to tell us [2:13:51] if you have investments, for example, in vehicles set up to advance Jeffrey Epstein? Is that what you're [2:13:59] telling us? You just won't tell us? Senator, what I'm telling you is that those assets that you represent [2:14:04] as juggernaut will be sold if I'm confirmed before I take office and sign the oath of office. Let me [2:14:10] follow up on that. Will you at least disclose how you plan to disclose and divest these secret assets? [2:14:19] I'm sure you understand that the public might question your motives if, for example, billionaire [2:14:25] Stanley Druckenmiller, who you honored in your opening statement, and who makes a living guessing [2:14:32] what the Fed will do next, cuts you a massive check for a hundred million dollars as you take the [2:14:39] oath of office to become the new Federal Reserve Chair? Senator, as you know, it sounds like you're [2:14:45] fighting up. It might not be with me, but the Office of Government Ethics. I have come to full agreement [2:14:50] with them and have agreed to divest all of those assets. I'm asking you a very straightforward [2:14:57] question, Mr. Worsh, and that is, will you disclose how you divest those assets, or will you just [2:15:05] collect the check for a hundred million dollars from someone whose whole business is betting on [2:15:11] what the Fed will do? As I said to the ethics officials at the Federal Reserve and the Office [2:15:16] of Government Ethics, I would be redeeming my assets before I take office. So Donald Trump has made clear [2:15:21] that he does not want an independent Fed. In fact, he has said, and I quote, anybody that disagrees with [2:15:27] me will never be Fed Chairman. And he's made clear that you are his sock puppet, saying last week that [2:15:35] interest rates will drop, quote, when Kevin gets in. Yeah, I think they do. Not when economic conditions [2:15:42] change, we'll get lower rates. Not when the economy needs it. Nope. He said, when my guy, Kevin Worsh, [2:15:49] is in there, we'll get the interest rates that I, Donald Trump, wants. So independence takes courage. [2:15:55] Let's check out your independence and your courage. We'll start easy. Mr. Worsh, did Donald Trump lose [2:16:02] the 2020 election? We try to keep politics, if I'm confirmed, out of the Federal Reserve. I'm just [2:16:08] asking you a factual question. I need to know, I need to measure your independence and your courage. [2:16:14] Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many years ago. That's not the question [2:16:20] I'm asking. I'm asking, did Donald Trump lose in 2020? And I'm suggesting you in 2020, [2:16:25] the Fed made a huge inflation problem, and you certified the election. So let me ask you another [2:16:31] question. In our meeting, you said you would be independent because you're, quote, a tough guy. [2:16:38] Those were your words, tough guy. And you will be able to stand up to President Trump. So let's try it [2:16:44] again. Name one aspect of President Trump's economic agenda with which you disagree. [2:16:51] Well, Senator, the Federal Reserve in recent years has wandered outside of its remit, wandered into [2:16:56] other areas. That's not something I'm prepared to do. If I'm confirmed, the Federal Reserve should stay in [2:17:04] its lane. Just one. Just one little place where you disagree with Donald Trump. Well, I do have a [2:17:09] disagreement, actually, Senator, with the president. I think even this morning, he said that he thought [2:17:15] I was out of central casting. I think central casting, I'd look older, grayer, and maybe show up [2:17:20] here with a cigar of sorts. Quite adorable. But you know, we need a Fed chair who is independent. That's [2:17:30] the only way we preserve the independence of the Federal Reserve. If you can't answer these questions, [2:17:36] you don't have the courage and you don't have the independence. I agree with you on independence, [2:17:40] Senator. Senator Realms. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Warsh, first of all, welcome. And [2:17:52] I appreciated the opportunity to visit with you personally in the office. I agree with you. And I [2:17:58] think Fed independence is critical. And I think that's an item that you and I agree on wholeheartedly. [2:18:07] I want to take an opportunity just to kind of perhaps give you an opportunity to respond. I know [2:18:12] that the ranking member had a number of items that she expressed concerns with. I'd like to give you an [2:18:18] opportunity to just kind of work this way through. And let me just ask you a few questions and [2:18:22] I'll allow you to take the time to fully answer the questions. [2:18:26] As I understand, Mr. Warsh, you worked with the career ethics professionals at the Office of [2:18:34] Government Ethics and at the Fed to come to an agreement in terms of your dissolution of some [2:18:40] of the assets that you as a businessman have. Is that correct? Yes, Senator, that is correct. [2:18:47] I worked with the Fed ethics officials first, answered all their questions, [2:18:52] then with the career professionals, the Office of Government Ethics, answered all their questions. [2:18:57] And then they drafted, wrote up an ethics agreement, which is part of the public record. But because I [2:19:03] agree with Senator Warren on the ethical questions that have been raised over the last several years [2:19:09] by several people that were members of the FOMC, so that there's no question about my independence, [2:19:16] no question about the clarity of my financial record. I agreed to divest virtually all of my [2:19:23] financial assets, the large majority of which will be divested before I raise my right hand and [2:19:29] sworn into office if confirmed by this body. So I've gone above and beyond, not for any other special [2:19:36] reason other than the Fed needs to reestablish its credibility, because the conduct of policy depends on it. [2:19:43] So let me just, for the record, the agreement which you have signed clearly states that you have [2:19:52] agreed to divest your assets that are in question within 90 days of confirmation if you have not [2:20:00] already divested them. That is correct. Yes, Senator, and in fact, the large majority of those assets [2:20:06] will be divested before I am sworn into office if confirmed. Thank you. [2:20:12] The career ethics professionals were the ones that basically had sent your signed paperwork to this [2:20:24] committee's chief clerk. I really question whether or not they would have done that if they did not [2:20:30] come to the ethics agreement with you in the first place, correct? [2:20:34] Yes, I presume that's right. We had a very good working relationship, and I'm happy to be sitting [2:20:40] after the divestiture and cash or T-bills or whatever is the permitted asset so we can get back to the [2:20:47] business of fixing the Fed, reforming an institution that has lost its way a bit, that has missed the mark. [2:20:54] As Chairman Scott said at the outset, this inflation risk is still something that's being talked about [2:21:01] around kitchen tables and boardrooms. My preferred definition of stable prices is a little different [2:21:07] than most academics. I believe that price stability should be a change in prices such that no one's [2:21:14] talking about it. That's an old-fashioned definition, but I think it's still valid. [2:21:18] The sooner that we can reform the institution with my colleagues, if confirmed, the sooner we can [2:21:24] ensure price stability and we can have a new set of leaders atop the institution with high credible [2:21:31] ethical standards to return the Fed to what it should be. The independence that both Chairman [2:21:39] Scott and Senator Warren mentioned, critically important. But independence has to be earned, [2:21:44] and it's earned by delivering on the promises, the commitments that the Fed has made. And as the Fed [2:21:50] hasn't delivered on those promises, we shouldn't be surprised that we hear politics that are entering the [2:21:55] room at the Fed and you get the politics out of it so the Fed can focus on its day job, deliver on full [2:22:01] employment and stable prices. It's true that people want to see stability within the Fed, but is it okay [2:22:10] for a Fed governor or a chairman to change their mind on a particular policy? It's more than okay, [2:22:17] it's essential. Economics is not physics, it's not math. Frankly, most of us that ended up in the [2:22:23] economics business. We started like I did as a math major. It was too hard. So we ended up in economics. [2:22:30] In economics, what we need to do is focus the left of the decimal point, not to the right of the [2:22:35] decimal point. We need to focus on the big things. And if mistakes are made, central bankers, economic [2:22:41] policy makers need to correct them fast. The real mistakes, the mistakes that cause inflation be [2:22:47] persistent to undermine hardworking American standard of living is when those mistakes go on. [2:22:53] Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Yes, sir. Senator Reed. Mr. Chairman, before we start the next [2:22:59] question, I ask that we have entered into the record the U.S. Office of Government Ethics certification, [2:23:07] which requires that all nominees disclose all of their assets and showing that Mr. Warsh is out of [2:23:16] compliance and that he has not met the ethics requirements. Without objection, I will note, [2:23:27] however, that what has been clearly articulated is that he will, according to his agreement with OGE, [2:23:35] do what many others have done as well within 90 days, be not only in compliance, but to divest himself [2:23:42] from any assets that are in question. Mr. Chairman, can I ask? I don't think we've had other nominees [2:23:48] who are out of compliance and not disclosing at the time they come before the hearing. Not in this [2:23:53] committee, that's correct. Not in this committee. Before we, here's what we're not going to do. [2:23:59] Fair enough. We're not going to have two chairmen, for sure. Just ask. Number one. Number two, [2:24:04] what we're also not going to do is debate what we're putting into the record. And finally, what we are [2:24:10] going to do is have a conversation about America's economy. And frankly, we all deserve the opportunity to [2:24:18] ask our questions. We don't get to figure out the answers, but we do get to ask our questions. [2:24:24] And I hope that we are able to continue in that direction. As long as we are, we're going to have [2:24:29] a very good hearing. And if we're not, then I will find a way to help us to expedite getting back on [2:24:35] track. Senator Reid. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, Mr. Walsh. Until you dispose of all the assets [2:24:48] that you've identified to the Office of Government Ethics, you will not be in compliance. Is that [2:24:52] correct? My understanding is that a signed ethics agreement provides duties and responsibilities [2:25:03] on me and duties and responsibilities on the government. And that's what the nature of the [2:25:07] ethics agreement is. You have an agreement that within 90 days, you will dispose of all your assets, [2:25:14] all your assets. Is that correct? Senator, I have an agreement within 90 days, [2:25:19] so that there is no appearance of anything inappropriate, that I would divest all of my [2:25:23] assets, the majority of which before sworn in. What I've disclosed, Senator, is all the information [2:25:29] that is mine to disclose. I've shared all information about assets that I control and that I can share, [2:25:35] which I did much to the satisfaction of the Government Ethics Office. Excuse me. [2:25:39] What you've said is that you will take the oath, if confirmed as chairman, with assets that have already [2:25:45] been identified as presenting potential conflicts of interest. Will you agree to not take the oath [2:25:54] until you have fully disposed all the assets that you've been identified? Senator, I'll agree to take [2:26:00] the oath pursuant to the terms of the ethics agreement that I struck with the Office of Government Ethics. [2:26:05] I don't think anyone could do more than that. Other than me, I've agreed to divest even more assets, [2:26:11] that I will have virtually no financial assets. The divestiture is totally up to you. You can select [2:26:19] what assets you're disposing of, what assets you keep, is that correct? And then still be sworn in as [2:26:24] chairman. The divestiture is up to the agreement that I struck with the Office of Government Ethics. [2:26:29] Who makes the decision as to what assets are divested, you or the Office of Government Ethics? [2:26:35] Both of us. That's why it's an agreement. Excuse me. I must commend you on the way you can [2:26:43] circularly go around questions and not answer them. It's a skill. Fortunately, it's not a good skill [2:26:49] for the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. We typically ask questions and expect to get direct [2:26:56] faithful answers. You've never given, you haven't given them to the ranking member and you're not [2:27:00] giving it to me. So again, you feel you will not be, you will be compliant if after 90 days you still [2:27:12] have a significant number of assets that have been identified as presenting conflict of interest. Is [2:27:17] that your view? No, Senator. If I were to violate the ethics agreement, I would not be in compliance. [2:27:24] If I follow the agreement, I will be. Well, that's your position. I think others would differ. [2:27:37] When you sell all your assets, where are you going to place the proceeds of those sales? I believe that [2:27:47] the chairman. What's obvious here is that people really care about his net worth, which is almost [2:27:53] $200 million and his financial disclosures, his conflicts of interest. This is the wealthiest [2:27:59] Fed chair we would ever have if he does get nominated. So this seems to be the biggest thing people, [2:28:03] at least the senators care about. Paul has placed them in. I haven't selected anything, but it will be as [2:28:08] plain vanilla as possible. So there would be no appearance or reality of having any influence. [2:28:14] We'll be sitting in something like cash. Okay. Now, the question of independence is just [2:28:22] one that I think will dominate these proceedings. This morning, President Trump was asked on CNBC, [2:28:30] will you be disappointed if your new Fed chair doesn't cut rates right away? And President Trump [2:28:35] answered, I would. It's very hard to separate President Trump's obsession with rate cuts, his [2:28:45] attacks on the Federal Reserve, on Chairman Powell particularly, and your nomination. So this [2:28:54] independence thing seems to be have evaporated quite quickly between President Trump's statements and [2:29:01] and your positions. Again, you maintain you'll be independent of President Trump? [2:29:10] Yes, Senator, I do. Well, President Trump constantly maintains that nobody's independent of him, [2:29:16] that it's his morality that guides the whole United States government, including the Federal Reserve, [2:29:21] and that you will be someone who will carry out his wishes. Frankly, do you suspect that he chose you [2:29:30] because you indicated to him that you want to cut rates? Senator, I don't know the reason for the [2:29:36] President's choice, but I can tell you what I've been writing about for 15 years and what I said to [2:29:44] the President, which is- You're going to cut- I'll cut rates if you give me the job. [2:29:48] No, that's not what I said, Senator. Now, the President, as you might know, much like virtually [2:29:54] all Presidents I've either known or studied, Presidents tend to be for cutting rates. I think [2:29:59] the difference is President Trump expresses it quite publicly without surrogates or subterfuge, [2:30:05] but Presidents want lower rates. But Fed independence is up to the Fed. [2:30:09] Fed leadership has to make a decision about what's the right thing to do. [2:30:13] No. And my judge- You're a leader. You're the leader. [2:30:16] You establish the moral and ethical standards and economic principles of the Fed. [2:30:23] And you just pass it off to, well, you know, it's not my job. It's everybody's job. [2:30:28] That means it's nobody's job. Thank you. Senator Tillis. [2:30:36] Mr. Chair, before my time starts, can I make a parliamentary inquiry? [2:30:39] Certainly. I want to make sure that we get this right because I'm not an attorney, [2:30:44] but I think it's pretty important to suggest that according to Mr. Warsh, he has signed an [2:30:51] agreement that is in compliance provided that he executes the agreement. So we should not [2:30:56] have into the record that he is before us out of compliance because you stipulated that what Senator [2:31:02] Warren said was a first of a kind here, but he is not out of compliance. He has agreement that if [2:31:09] he executes, we'll be in compliance. That's why he's properly before us. And I just want to make sure [2:31:14] for the record that that is clear. Yeah, very clear. Let me just say it. I'm going to reiterate [2:31:19] what you just said, but I was writing it down myself. The Office of Government Ethics has entered [2:31:24] into an agreement with Kevin Warsh that he has up until 90 days after confirmed to divest of his assets. [2:31:34] So to non-attorneys here, I heard someone say he's before us out of compliance. And that's why I [2:31:41] checked with the staff to be absolutely certain he is properly before us. He will be in compliance if [2:31:47] he executes agreement that addresses the concerns that have been presented by some of my colleagues [2:31:52] on the other side of the aisle. I just want to confirm for the record that that is in fact accurate. [2:31:56] So if we're doing a matter here of is this parliamentary inquiry? Is that what this is? [2:32:02] I've made a parliamentary inquiry, so I'm not burning my time on something. I thought it felt [2:32:07] like a cheap shot to say he's out of compliance when in fact he's not. Then I'd like to ask the [2:32:12] other question. And that is, have we seen this agreement? Do we have any way to verify that in fact [2:32:20] these sales will occur if we have no idea what's in them and no one has told? And let's do remember [2:32:28] the law for a minute. The Fed, unlike other parts of government, do not have a 90-day, [2:32:36] you can be out of compliance. Fed law is explicit that you cannot own any portion of a financial [2:32:45] interest in a bank. Mr. President, Mr. Chairman, excuse me to interrupt you, Senator. [2:32:51] I'm going to let the attorneys take over. Are we going to all get extra time here? [2:32:54] No. I'd like an extra three minutes. All right. Okay. [2:33:00] Mr. Chair, I just, for the record, and the only reason I said that- [2:33:03] That was a parliamentary inquiry, so it doesn't count. [2:33:05] Yeah. Okay. [2:33:07] Mr. Chair, the reason I mentioned that is because you had stipulated it. I don't think you meant it [2:33:12] this way, but you as a chair said that this is the first of a kind of someone being out of compliance. [2:33:18] I don't think you meant that. I wanted to make sure it was clear for the record. [2:33:22] Well, let me just be very clear again. The career ethics professionals are the ones that sent Mr. [2:33:28] Warsh's signed paperwork to this committee's chief clerk. They would not have done so if they did not [2:33:34] come to an ethics agreement with Mr. Warsh. Mr. Kennedy, Senator Kennedy does raise a good point. [2:33:41] We are going to stick to our timeline, and I appreciate you raising the point of how long [2:33:47] an inquiry can go on, and that does not buy you more time unless, of course, we all decide we want [2:33:55] more time, and then I would rule on that, and I would rule against it. [2:34:01] Thank you, Mr. Chair. Mr. Warsh, congratulations. You can't count this as a date with Jane, [2:34:07] particularly this one. I think probably the first hearing was a little less acrimonious. [2:34:13] I'm not going to ask you anything. You can take a break and get ready for the bludgeoning on the other [2:34:17] side. They're going to beat you until you bleed, and then they're going to beat you for bleeding. [2:34:21] I'm going to talk about what's preventing me from being in a position to vote for you [2:34:26] until ... We've spent time together in my office. You have extraordinary credentials. [2:34:31] They're impeccable. I think the way you're dealing with the ethics issue is strong. [2:34:36] Problem I have is where we are right now, and I start by saying I love your opening statement. [2:34:44] I love your focus on the independence of the Fed. I love the idea of Fed independence with respect to [2:34:52] achieving the dual mandate, but Fed transparency on so many other things that the Fed does that, [2:34:57] frankly, we're all frustrated with, bank examination supervision being some among them that I think [2:35:02] we should have more insight into. Mr. Chair, I'd like to submit for the record two executive orders [2:35:09] under President Trump, one in 2020 and one in 2025, talking about making federal architecture beautiful [2:35:17] again and focusing on trying to preserve the integrity of old buildings. The reason we're likely [2:35:26] going red is because, once again, the market really cares about Fed independence. Based on Kevin Walsh's [2:35:32] answering these questions, maybe the market's interpreting this guy as not the most independent. [2:35:37] And as a result of that, even if it's like a short-term jitter, the market is going to test [2:35:41] this Fed. And if they don't think he's independent, then they're going to be afraid of if they can [2:35:46] trust his perspective on where interest rates can go. So I'm naturally wired to go back from the ground [2:35:51] up and figure out what the deal is. Here's what I know. The Martin building has been conflated into [2:35:58] this project to make it a $4 billion building. Even if you put the Martin building in, it's a $3 billion [2:36:03] building. The reality is what we're talking about is the Eccles building and the East building for [2:36:09] which, bring that up higher, Jack. You're a tall guy so people can see it. These are the overruns. [2:36:15] And these overruns occurred in part because the cost of inputs went up 69 percent since the original [2:36:20] estimate. Asbestos was identified. Remediation was required. Pylons had to be built underneath the [2:36:28] building because it turns out they used it as a landfill and they had a water table issue. [2:36:34] There were a variety of reasons why this building went over budget. And as a matter of fact, if we [2:36:40] put everybody in prison in federal government that had had a budget go over, we'd have to reserve an [2:36:46] area roughly the size of Texas for a penal colony because of the way government projects work. [2:36:52] And the reality is the overage of inflation adjusted was about $730 million. The majority of [2:36:58] which it seems to be legitimate. Next slide. Not acceptable, unfortunate, but legitimate. [2:37:07] Now, what I've really got a problem with, and we're talking about Fed independence, by the way, [2:37:12] I think you're going to be independent. You have to be, you got to convince 11 other people to vote [2:37:16] with you. At least the majority, it's a consensus organization. You try to get the majority to most of [2:37:21] these votes are 11 to one. So if anybody thinks the president can appoint somebody and you unilaterally [2:37:26] can control things, you're going to be an unsuccessful chair if history is any guide. [2:37:30] And you've served under some of the best. So I know you're going to do it right. The problem that I [2:37:36] have here is that we had some US attorney with a dream or assistant US attorney thinking it would be [2:37:43] cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation just a few months before the position was going to be [2:37:51] open. This happened this year. Normal course and speed. Here's how it works at the Fed. February or [2:37:58] March, May the 15th, the term would have expired. We'd be having this hearing. You'd be getting confirmed. [2:38:04] Custom also suggests that the sitting chair, even though he has two years left on his term, [2:38:09] would have exited. But instead, we have somebody who thinks a building project that went over [2:38:16] by about $700 million with a lot of what seemed to be justifications for it are holding up this [2:38:22] whole process. It sounds like to me, somebody over in the DOJ didn't even check with the boss. [2:38:29] The boss said on the same night that I said, I can't go forward until this bogus investigation [2:38:34] is done with said he didn't know anything about it. So we've got people in DOJ over in the DC circuit [2:38:40] or the DC district doing these investigations. We have got to end this investigation. Big DOJ didn't [2:38:47] know about it. The president didn't know about it. Let's get rid of this investigation so I can [2:38:52] support your confirmation. Mr. Warsh, the only thing I've found the least bit odd about you [2:38:57] is you've never watched an episode of Seinfeld. You've spent so much time at being a rock solid [2:39:04] economist that you're not even taking time away for a little laugh like that. I look forward to [2:39:09] supporting your nomination and I look forward to this investigation being taken down. If the chair [2:39:15] wants to have all of our subcommittees start looking at capital expenditure projects for the [2:39:21] agencies that we're overseeing, I think that's a great idea. And I'd like to be on a committee [2:39:26] specifically drilling down on this analysis. If somebody can prove me wrong, I'd be happy to make [2:39:31] a criminal referral. But I don't have the DC circuit tell me a crime was committed when seven members on [2:39:37] this committee said it wasn't, including the chair. Thank you, Mr. Chair. You're welcome. [2:39:42] Only one question. What is Seinfeld? Senator Van Halen. Mr. Chairman, thank you. Market could [2:39:53] also be dumping because there is not confirmation from the Iranian side on attending the Islamabad [2:39:59] peace talks. I believe the delegation is there, but we don't have confirmation if they will participate [2:40:02] in the talks. At least that might be the speculation here. So that along with the market questioning Kevin [2:40:07] Warsh could be why we're going red right here. Since the Great Depression with some of the worst [2:40:13] unemployment in our lifetimes, you were a hawkish voice expressing concern that the Fed might wait [2:40:19] too long to raise rates. I think you got it wrong then, but now you seem to have swung 180 degrees [2:40:28] in the opposite direction to embrace lower rates, a view that conveniently aligns with the president who [2:40:34] nominated you. You've made this pivot even as today prices are too high. I think we all know that. Our [2:40:41] economy works for families when prices are affordable and unemployment is low. That's why price stability [2:40:48] is an important part of the Fed's mandate, right? Senator, yes. And the Fed uses its monetary policy tools [2:40:57] for price stability and full employment. That's the job Congress gave to the Fed. Here's how Ben Bernanke [2:41:05] described how the Fed uses those tools. He said, and I'm quoting, generally, if economic weakness is the [2:41:12] primary concern, the Fed acts to reduce interest rates, which supports the economy. If the economy is [2:41:20] overheating, the Fed can raise interest rates to constrain inflationary pressures, end of quote. So [2:41:28] that's a textbook model of the Fed. Cutting rates supports the economy, but can lead to higher inflation, [2:41:36] while raising rates helps to fight inflation, but can limit growth. Do you agree with Chairman Bernanke [2:41:42] that that's generally how the Fed can use monetary policy to affect the economy? Senator, I do agree [2:41:49] generally with that proposition, but I'll note at a moment like this, the supply side of the economy is [2:41:55] changing dramatically. So the core of what Chairman Bernanke said is a question about what's the [2:42:00] economy's potential. As I said in my opening remarks, I think the economy's potential is growing quite [2:42:06] quickly. And that makes the decision that you tee up to be a difficult one, and one that the Fed's [2:42:12] going to have to dig deep in, in evaluating what's the right policy choice in the upcoming meetings. [2:42:18] Well, I want to push you a little bit on that in a moment. But right now, the Fed has set its main [2:42:22] interest rate at 3.5 to 3.7%. Last December, President Trump told the Wall Street Journal that [2:42:30] he wanted to cut rates to 1% and maybe lower than that by the end of this year. So just to better [2:42:39] understand how you think about economics, in the economic model Bernanke laid out, let's say there's [2:42:46] an economy with decent growth and no recession. If the central bank were to cut rates from 3.5 to 1% or [2:42:53] lower a massive cut, that would typically push prices up, right? Senator, unlike many of my [2:43:03] colleagues past and present, I don't believe in forward guidance. I don't believe that I should be [2:43:08] previewing for you what a future decision might be. I think it's essential to make decisions in the [2:43:14] room. Mr. Warsh, I'm not asking you what decision you would make. Obviously, that's going to be up to [2:43:18] you. I'm asking you for the framework in which you think about these things. And it seems a pretty [2:43:25] straightforward question about what would happen if we reduced interest rates by the end of this year [2:43:32] to 1% or less. And under the Bernanke model, and I think almost every economist or most economists [2:43:40] would say that that will drive up prices. And so that's what I'm asking you. Would you agree [2:43:45] that that would likely drive up prices? So, Senator, the Fed has two important [2:43:51] monetary policy tools. One is interest rates and the other is a balance sheet, a balance sheet that we [2:43:58] created in the 2008 financial crisis. Those tools should be working in concert, not across purposes. [2:44:04] So it's hard for me to isolate one variable when we'd have to have a discussion on the other. [2:44:09] All right. Let me just say this was a pretty clear question about the framework in which these [2:44:20] decisions are made. I have heard you talk about how AI may change that calculations. I will just say, [2:44:30] and I think you know this, I mean, I have this, you know, the Financial Times pointed out the economists [2:44:35] reject Kevin Warsh's claim that AI, the AI boom will enable rate cuts. And I think, find it just [2:44:44] implausible to suggest that by the end of this year, AI would produce such increases in productivity [2:44:54] that it could reduce in a rate cut to below 1%. And you can't tell me that that would very likely [2:45:02] increase prices. So, Senator, can I say two things first? Oh, sorry. Quickly. Sorry. Monetary Policy [2:45:13] Center works with long and variable lags, quite famously. If the Fed were to make a decision today [2:45:19] about the conduct of policy, it's likely to find its way to the real economy six, nine, or 12 months later. [2:45:26] So it's difficult to judge policy today for an immediate result. And that would be my only [2:45:32] concern about the framing of your question. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I just, in closing, this is [2:45:38] what concerns me, is that your views now have sort of flipped to conform with where the president [2:45:44] of the United States is. And that's been a concern many of us have. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Senator [2:45:48] Kennedy. I want extra time, Mr. Chairman. I know, sir. I know. Consider these five minutes of [2:45:54] parliamentary inquiry. Professor, what's the sock puppet? I heard the reference from Senator Warren. Yeah, [2:46:04] what is it? I'm not sure I know. I think it's that thing you stick your hand in. Yeah, kind of like [2:46:09] this. Yes. What's a human sock puppet? Getting a human sock puppet, somebody will do what somebody [2:46:17] else tells them to do? I think that's what the senator was trying to suggest. I think that was the innuendo. [2:46:22] Are you going to be the president's human sock puppet? Senator, absolutely not. Are you going to be [2:46:28] anybody's human sock puppet? No, I'm honored the president nominated me for the position, [2:46:33] and I'll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve. My friend, [2:46:38] Senator Warren, and she has my friend, suggested that, I wrote it down, you will use your power. [2:46:46] You might use your power to bail out your friends if they get in trouble, kind of like President [2:46:52] Biden did with Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank. She didn't say the last part. I just did. [2:46:58] Are you going to do that? No, Senator. Okay. The ethics folks, they've cleared you, [2:47:08] but they've said you've got to sell some assets. Is that right? Yes, sir. Okay. And these assets [2:47:14] that you have, you can't just hold a yard sale, can you? No, not for most of them. Okay. So it takes [2:47:21] a fair, a reasonable period of time, right? Yes. And you've promised to sell them, right? I did. [2:47:30] And if you don't sell them, we'll know, and the ethics folks will know, right? Yes. I'd be in [2:47:36] violation of the ethics agreement if I refuse to sell them. But you're going to sell them, right? [2:47:41] Yes, Senator. I will. Okay. Can we agree that politicians have the right to offer you advice [2:47:52] about what to do with interest rates? Senator, we can agree, and it's not something that I would shy [2:47:58] away from. I've heard many senators from this very committee in years past express strong views [2:48:04] on interest rates. Okay. Humble central bankers should be listening and then making their own [2:48:07] decisions. But some politicians matter more than others. And generally speaking, presidents matter, [2:48:16] their opinion matters more than, say, a senator. President Trump has offered his opinion [2:48:24] about what you ought to do with interest rates. Is that right? Senator, he has not made his opinion [2:48:29] on that a secret to anybody. Yeah. And every president has that you're aware of? [2:48:37] Yes. And they all tend to be in the same direction, Senator Kennedy. Okay. Now, the problem is, [2:48:44] can we agree that your credibility as Fed chairman is the most important thing you have? [2:48:50] It's the most important thing to me. It's the most important thing to the institution, [2:48:53] and it's the most important thing to the successful conduct of policy. [2:48:56] Okay. That's a yes, right? Yes, Senator. Okay. The problem is that President Trump has said [2:49:04] he's not going to appoint anybody who wouldn't agree to lower interest rates. Have you agreed with the [2:49:12] President that you're going to lower interest rates? Senator, I'm glad you framed it that way. The [2:49:17] President never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision [2:49:26] in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so. [2:49:30] So, the President has never sat you down, looked you in the eye, [2:49:34] and said, here's the deal, Scooter. I'm going to appoint you, but you got to agree to lower interest [2:49:40] rates. That didn't happen or did happen? The President never once asked me to commit [2:49:47] to any particular interest rate decision, period, and nor would I ever agree to do so if he had, [2:49:54] but he never did. I was honored he nominated me, like everyone else in the committee. [2:49:58] Who believes him? Who believes him? [2:50:01] In the world, I've heard his view on interest rates. It sounded very similar to me to [2:50:07] every other President in economic history that I've studied. [2:50:10] Okay. I've got one more question because I'm about to run out of my parliamentary inquiry time. [2:50:16] I've heard your argument the last few months about artificial intelligence [2:50:24] has made us so productive, labor so productive that companies don't have to raise prices, [2:50:34] therefore inflation isn't a problem, therefore rates can be cut. Do you really believe that right now? [2:50:42] No, that is not how I would characterize the story on AI. [2:50:46] Okay. But you've said what I just said, haven't you? [2:50:49] I have said that this is the most disruptive moment in modern economic history in the U.S. and the world. [2:50:58] I've said that artificial intelligence, AI... [2:51:01] Okay, let me stop you because the chair is going to cut me off. [2:51:04] Oh, sorry. [2:51:05] Here's my worry that a lot of this stuff about artificial intelligence making us more productive [2:51:11] is a bunch of hype by people who want to sell stock in an IPO. [2:51:15] Okay. I'd be careful there. [2:51:17] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll get to my five minutes in a little bit. [2:51:24] You come back about midnight, sir. We'll go ahead. [2:51:26] We'll start all over. [2:51:27] Mark, it's getting a little recovery. Oil still getting the spike, folks. [2:51:32] I guess it's based on this idea of Iran potentially not continuing the war or not continuing to [2:51:42] negotiate. But you're seeing oil still get that 91.40 handle right here. S&P, very small bounce [2:51:50] from the lows at 7.06, still at 7.07.41. But at least you do have a bounce, which is [2:51:58] better than nothing right here. So, I mean, a majority of these questions are primarily rooted [2:52:04] in how the Fed is or how they are concerned about his Fed independence, which I guess is fair given [2:52:10] he is super rich. But that seems to be the most important questions they're asking. They're not [2:52:18] really even asking about anything else other than his potential liabilities here. Oil right there, [2:52:22] 91.40. S&P, 707.54, as that continues to be green. Tesla 391, PayPal's up a little bit, [2:52:37] service now still up. A lot of names that had a pump today are losing it. Car went from 750 to 662, [2:52:44] and you're trying to see some of those names still come back. What is Powell's net worth? I'm not sure, [2:52:48] but Warsh is closer to 200 million. So obviously he does own a lot here. [2:52:56] I am trying to get back to this Warsh hearing. CNBC is not loading. Give it a second. I think it just [2:53:10] needs a minute, and then it should be able to load. Gold and silver also coming down. Okay, [2:53:19] we should be back now. Here we go. [2:53:20] ...inflation has been running at about 3%, a full point above that Fed target, correct? [2:53:34] Yes. [2:53:35] And so some Federal Reserve officials have said that this excess is due to tariffs. Do you agree with that? [2:53:43] Senator, I don't. If I can make two points, much as we discussed in your office, [2:53:51] I think the data that's being used to judge inflation is quite imperfect data. And among the [2:53:58] projects that the economics profession, and if I'm confirmed as chairman of the Fed, the Fed needs to do [2:54:04] is to try to use our new understanding and new data sources to see what's really the inflation rate [2:54:10] in the economy. We used to use core PCE, core measures, so we'd exclude food and energy because [2:54:17] it was sort of a rough swag as to what was going on. You don't have to do a rough swag anymore. [2:54:22] What I'm most interested in is what's the underlying inflation rate? Not what's the one-time change in [2:54:27] prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef, but what's the underlying [2:54:34] generalized change in prices in the economy? And my broad sense is that these inflation [2:54:42] risks and the inflation damage the last several years is improving somewhat. It has improved [2:54:47] somewhat in the last year. The measures I prefer are looking at things that are called trimmed [2:54:52] averages, where we take out all of the tail risks, all of the one-off items, and we ask ourselves [2:54:58] whether the generalized change in prices is having second-order effects on the economy. Again, [2:55:03] they're not where they should be, but I think that the trend is quite favorable. [2:55:06] And these trend averages in the data that you're looking at now, it's not traditionally the norm [2:55:10] that economists would use in this position. Is that correct? [2:55:14] Some in economics profession are increasingly looking to these median-type measures, [2:55:19] but among the projects I would hope to undertake as one of the first reforms at the Fed is a data [2:55:25] project where we would go off and we would evaluate with the public sector and the private sector, [2:55:30] including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a survey of a billion prices. And what I'm really most [2:55:36] interested, Senator, is what's the change of that 500 millionth and one price? Because that's [2:55:42] inflation. That's a change in the generalized level. In a market economy, prices change all the time, [2:55:48] and I don't want to be confused by that. I want to know what inflation really is, [2:55:52] and I still think there's some work to do. [2:55:54] And I respect, listen, I'm listening to you today and talking with you. I respect you truly believe, [2:56:00] as an economist and a theorist, in this theory and what you are talking to us today about, [2:56:06] which is traditionally not the norm. And many are disagreeing with you on that, and publicly [2:56:11] disagreeing. And so I understand that. But I guess the position I have is, I hope you're right, [2:56:19] but at the end of the day, my concern is people are suffering right now with high costs, and we need [2:56:25] to address it. And I don't know how long it's going to take for your economic theory [2:56:30] to gain traction or to be proven that it's going to benefit so many people in this country right now. [2:56:35] And here's one other thing, because I don't have that much time, and this is what is also a concern [2:56:40] of mine, so I want you to address it. Earlier, you've been on the Federal Reserve Board and you were [2:56:46] there during the financial crisis of 2008. You and I talked about this, I was the Attorney General, [2:56:51] then it hit Nevada so hard. Here's what I do know, and at that time, in 2006, you attended [2:57:01] numerous meetings where housing experts pleaded with you to stop predatory mortgages. In fact, [2:57:08] Gail Burks, who was the CEO of Nevada's Fair Housing at that time, who I worked with, repeatedly warned [2:57:14] Fed leadership, including you about predatory lending practices such as flipping loans or [2:57:19] misinforming seniors about reverse mortgages. And in 2007, you said, and I quote, subprime mortgages [2:57:26] have gotten a bad name in this environment, and in some cases, that's not just. You also said that [2:57:31] you don't see any immediate systemic risk issues among big banks. And you said that at that time. [2:57:37] And then just recently, and this is what I want you to address, Senator Warren has said that you told [2:57:42] her you had no regrets during this tenure. How can we trust that your economic theory, [2:57:47] when you were wrong then, is going to be the accurate theory we need now to help so many families [2:57:53] and businesses that are struggling with the policies that we're dealing with now? Senator, [2:57:59] let me address a few things. The chairman is going to cut me off when he must. But I would say this, [2:58:04] for many years before the global financial crisis, [2:58:08] I warned about the very real risks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac blowing up, which they did. [2:58:14] I think that part of the housing market was vulnerable for many years, and not enough was [2:58:18] done about it. Even in spite of my protestations and my urging about GSE reform, it wasn't done. I [2:58:25] think that compounded the financial crisis. Secondly, I think subprime mortgages then, subprime assets then, [2:58:32] were indicative of prices of almost every financial asset that were mispriced. [2:58:37] What I suggested then, and what I believe now, is that some prime mortgages were just indicative [2:58:43] of a set of prices that were incorrect, and they all repriced. Just to give one fine example before [2:58:49] I turn to the chairman. Perhaps, perhaps no examples right now. Okay, sorry. Let's go to Senator. Thank [2:58:53] you. I want to give you an opportunity to finish that exchange. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and Mr. Warsh, [2:59:00] I want to welcome you, Jane and your family. And I want the committee to know that I have known [2:59:06] Kevin Warsh for 30 years. We first crossed paths back in 1992, shortly after Kevin graduated from [2:59:13] Stanford. We both worked on the White House staff at that point in time. And I just want to say this, [2:59:18] that the man testifying before us today is the same man that I got to know then. Serious, disciplined, [2:59:26] with a true heart for public service. And I want to say this, I've said it before, Kevin Warsh is the man [2:59:34] for the moment. His background, his experience, and his discipline are precisely what we need [2:59:40] to bring our economy into its full potential. I'm delighted to see him here today, as we both [2:59:46] reinforce competence here at home and do the same thing abroad. And if I think about Kevin's [2:59:52] qualifications, think about the contrast with the nominations that we saw with the last administration. [2:59:59] I think this committee will recall that President Biden nominated a prospective federal bank regulator, [3:00:05] frankly, a graduate of Moscow State University in Russia, who advocated for replacing private bank [3:00:11] deposits with retail accounts held at the central bank. Those who might criticize Kevin for his private [3:00:19] sector success missed the point. Kevin's experience is not a liability. It's an asset. It brings a practical [3:00:27] understanding in terms of how markets function to bear, how capital is allocated, and how policy [3:00:33] decisions shape the real economy. Mr. Warsh, how will your experiences, both the public and the private [3:00:41] sector, shape your governance of the Fed, should you be confirmed? Senator, thank you very much. And [3:00:47] thanks for the kind introduction. For your colleagues on this panel, Senator Hager and I shared a desk, [3:00:55] 91 and 92, so I've known him for a very long time. I think my prior experience at the Fed, which some of your [3:01:03] colleagues made reference to, are going to allow me to hit the ground running. This is as consequential [3:01:09] a moment for the U.S. economy and, frankly, for the institution as at any point since the late 1970s. [3:01:16] And so my experience at the Fed, my understanding of the people, the culture, the governance, and of the [3:01:22] things that are ripe for reform are going to give me a leg up. We don't have a long time to do new studies and [3:01:30] contemplate what reform should be. We have a short window to try to bring inflation back down to where [3:01:37] it should be to ensure price stability. And because AI that Senator Kennedy referenced is so consequential, [3:01:45] and AI is quickly becoming at something like escape velocity, it's important to revisit the Fed's [3:01:51] models and see whether this innovation cycle, while it could have over time, improvements in the price [3:01:59] level and make the Fed's job on inflation easier. There's a question about what that means for [3:02:04] employment, which is another part of the Fed's mandate. So I think that's part and parcel of what [3:02:09] what my background suggestion and history would suggest. But if I can make one other point, what the Fed [3:02:17] needs is a reform to its frameworks and reforms to its communications. I've seen what the Fed's done well, and [3:02:25] often I'll give them one cheer or two. But now more than ever, the Federal Reserve needs three cheers, [3:02:31] and that's what I hope to deliver. Well, let's stay on this point, particularly when you've mentioned [3:02:35] this in your commentary, the point of the Fed's mission creep over the years. If you think about [3:02:42] what the Fed has done, they've strayed into what I would call politically contentious areas, they've gone [3:02:48] well beyond their core mandate. And we've seen this across the Federal Reserve System. And what the Fed has done [3:02:55] has eroded its credibility is what it should be, which is an apolitical and independent central bank. [3:03:01] In bank regulation and supervision, the Fed's focused on non-material and often politically [3:03:05] charged areas. I'm thinking about climate change policy here. Elsewhere in the Federal Reserve System, [3:03:09] we've seen regional reserve banks use this platform for promoting very divisive partisan policies. [3:03:14] There, I'm thinking about DEI, climate policy, even racial reparations. The Minneapolis Fed even went [3:03:21] so far as to publicly lobby for an amendment to a state constitution on education policy. How far [3:03:27] beyond the remit can they get? In the 2020 monetary policy review, the Fed even sought to redefine its [3:03:32] legislative mandate of maximum employment as a broad, quote, broad and broad-based and inclusive goal, [3:03:39] close quote. And that's tacitly understood to mean that the Fed should accept higher inflation to [3:03:44] privilege select groups of Americans. And while the Fed undertook this social engineering, it also [3:03:49] financially engineered a massive footprint in our market. QE provided near unlimited bid for government [3:03:55] debt, which, of course, made it easy for us to subsidize more government debt here, subsidize [3:04:01] government financing and encourage, frankly, what I view as very reckless federal spending. In each of [3:04:07] these examples, we see a clear pattern. The Fed has strayed beyond its core mandate to encroach upon policy [3:04:12] decisions that ought to be left to those of us that are democratically accountable. Mr. Warsh, the Fed's own [3:04:18] actions have eroded its credibility. What do you think should be done to regain public trust? Senator, [3:04:25] robust reform. The Fed can deliver on the mandate that you gave it if it sticks to its knitting. As [3:04:34] it wanders into areas upon which it has neither authority or expertise, it loses its focus. And I'll just [3:04:40] give one example. In 2020, as you reference, when the Federal Reserve changed its inflation framework, [3:04:47] in August of 2020, inflation was running at around 1.72 percent. And the Fed changed its framework, [3:04:55] rewrote in some sense the remit you gave it, and they asked for a little more inflation. They ended [3:05:00] up with a lot more. And that was the foundation for the inflation surge that happened in the subsequent [3:05:07] years, which we're still living with. Thank you, Mr. Warsh. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Senator Smith. [3:05:15] Thank you, Mr. Chair. Good morning, Mr. Warsh. It's still morning. So let me start with this. I think [3:05:23] you have said that you have confidence that this economy has potential. I think that's fair to say. [3:05:28] And you've also said that this is a time of great consequence for the nation's economy, perhaps one of [3:05:33] the most significant hinge points in a couple of generations. Is that that's fair to say? Yes, Senator. [3:05:40] Thank you. And so I agree with that. And I actually want to go a bit further because I think that it [3:05:45] seems to me that this economy is amazing. Vance has not left D.C. for Pakistan. I thought the [3:05:53] reporting we got this morning and from Trump himself on CNBC was that Vance left. Apparently [3:05:59] he has not left. We're getting reports he's still in D.C. Theoretically, we don't know if he's going to [3:06:06] go yet. There was some dispute over the weekend on if he's going to go or not. So I think that's another [3:06:11] reason markets are a little curious. Like, why is advance heading to Pakistan yet? [3:06:16] Amazing for rich people, people who have a lot of capital. And in fact, we can see in 2025, [3:06:23] billionaire wealth grew three times faster than the average rate of the previous five years. [3:06:28] And wealthy households hold a massive portion of the nation's wealth. And this, I think, is the tipping [3:06:36] point that our economy actually faces right now. And I can tell you that in Minnesota, [3:06:40] a lot of people are telling me that it is harder and harder for them to afford the basics. They [3:06:45] aren't rich. They don't have enough money to pay their bills, to pay their doctor's bills. [3:06:50] So I want to look at this with you for a few minutes. And I want to start with inflation. So [3:06:56] last week, President Trump said that gas prices are, quote, not very high and, quote, [3:07:03] we're having some think inflation because of the fuel. So understanding what you've been saying about data [3:07:09] and measurement and all of that, let me just ask you, do you think the gas prices going up 20 percent [3:07:13] is fake inflation? Senator, the gas prices like beef prices, eggs, milk and the rest, [3:07:22] they move. And when they move in the wrong direction, American people are hurting by it. [3:07:26] There's no question about it. That's right. American people feel it. It doesn't it's not fake to them. [3:07:30] It's money that they don't have in their pocket because gas is up 20 percent. I think my [3:07:35] and my constituents would say that that inflation is real and not fake. OK, so let's look at [3:07:40] unemployment at the State of the Union. The president said, quote, the economy is the roaring economy. [3:07:47] Excuse me. This is the quote. The roaring economy is roaring like never before. So do you agree with [3:07:54] that statement? Is that how you see the economy that is roaring like never roaring before? So, so, [3:08:00] Senator, if I can clarify two things. One, there's a difference between the change in prices and [3:08:06] inflation. The change in prices happen in a market economy when inflation moves up. That's because the [3:08:11] Fed had something to do with it. Now, on the state of the economy, I would say that the broad contours of [3:08:16] the economy are improving the potential of the economy. The real results of the economy are improving, [3:08:23] but I think it can improve more. And I think in the years ahead, I think the economy's potential is [3:08:28] strengthening. So, you know, the reality is that the economic data, understanding what you're [3:08:33] saying about economic data being not imperfect, there was almost zero job growth in 2025. And so [3:08:40] that looks to me like not a roaring economy. It looks like a weak economy, which is what my constituents [3:08:46] are telling me back in Minnesota. Let me go to one last one last look at this around the country. [3:08:53] The average cost of home insurance rose 12% last year. Now, in my home state of Minnesota, [3:08:59] not a coastal state, premiums rose 34% in 2025. This is, of course, caused by extreme weather events, [3:09:09] hail, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, climate change. So is that inflationary in your perspective? Is that [3:09:17] increase in home insurance, property and casualty insurance? Isn't that inflation? [3:09:20] So, Sarah, if I can answer two questions that I think I heard, and we talked about both of these [3:09:26] in your office. We look at the payroll numbers every month and we ask ourselves whether it's good or bad. [3:09:32] The job you gave to the Federal Reserve is to ensure we're at maximum sustainable employment. [3:09:37] I think broadly speaking, the economy is running about close to full employment, [3:09:41] that we never know what the right number is. So if Americans that want a job can find a job, [3:09:46] then by the Fed's metric, we're at full employment. On the question of insurance premiums and the rest, [3:09:54] when I look broadly across the economy, I would say when we look at health care, when we look at [3:10:00] education, we look at housing, those prices have tended to go up more. In the less regulated parts [3:10:06] of the economy, we've seen a downward structure, downward change in prices, and we try to aggregate them [3:10:12] the best we can. I'm not exactly sure what your point is there, but I would just say that my point [3:10:19] here is that rising home insurance rates caused by increasing extreme weather events, climate change, [3:10:26] is another inflationary pressure that people in my state are dealing with. The reason I'm focusing on [3:10:33] this is because I'm worried that because of the pressure that you are going to be under from [3:10:41] the president to lower interest rates, that this inflationary pressure that my constituents are [3:10:48] feeling is going to get worse and not better. And so I don't have time to ask my last question, [3:10:54] but it is literally this. The president has said that he demands that the next Fed chair will lower [3:11:00] interest rates. And I take him at his word at that. And that is what causes me such grave concern here. [3:11:07] Thank you, Mr. Chair. Yes, ma'am. Senator Lomas. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Welcome, Mr. Worson. [3:11:13] Congratulations on your nomination. And thanks for appearing before this committee, both and taking both the [3:11:20] positive questions and some of the hostility. I apologize for my colleague's behavior when it strays [3:11:29] outside of decorum. My first question is about the balance sheet of the Fed. What is your view about [3:11:40] the size of the balance sheet currently? Thank you, Senator. As we talked about in your office, [3:11:47] the Fed balance sheet has played a particularly, I think, unhelpful role in helping the Fed achieve its [3:11:55] dual mandate. The senator had just mentioned what she described as the increase for financial assets [3:12:02] relative to real assets. Well, part of that is the Federal Reserve. The Fed is not blameless in that, [3:12:09] as it's grown the Fed's balance sheet, grown its imprimatur on the economy, those with financial [3:12:16] assets have benefited from it. The reason why I prefer monetary policy to use interest rates as the [3:12:22] dominant force is interest rates affect a far broader cross-section of the economy. Interest [3:12:27] rates get in the cracks. If we were to cut rates, then a broader number of people will benefit from it [3:12:34] versus quantitative easing, which tends to move through financial assets first. Half of our fellow [3:12:39] Americans don't own any financial assets, so they're wondering what's in it for them. Broadly speaking, [3:12:45] Senator, on the balance sheet, I was involved in 2008 and 2009 in response to the global financial [3:12:51] crisis that Senator Warren referenced, and we used extraordinary measures and created a bigger [3:12:56] balance sheet. But we agreed to do that only in the times of emergencies, only when interest rates [3:13:02] were pinned to zero. The big balance sheet has become an ordinary recurring force, and I think has been [3:13:08] quite unhelpful, and is part of the reason why the Fed is in the business of politics. Slowly and [3:13:16] deliberately, I believe we need a smaller central bank balance sheet. It took us 18 years to create [3:13:24] this big balance sheet that's done quite a bit of harm, it strikes me, to the Fed's credibility. Working [3:13:30] with the Treasury Secretary, we're going to have to find out a way in which we can take the balance sheet [3:13:36] and make it smaller, because a large balance sheet where the Fed owns more outstanding debt than many parts [3:13:43] of the financial markets. That's fiscal policy in disguise. The Fed needs to get out of the fiscal [3:13:49] business, focus on the monetary business, so the Fed can deliver on the remit you gave us. [3:13:55] Thanks for that response, because some of us don't appreciate the connection [3:14:00] between the size of the Fed's balance sheet and interest rates. [3:14:05] Okay, guys, I think I'm going to have to end it there. If you want to continue watching it, [3:14:12] I'll put the YouTube stream right here in the chat. People can watch it. Ultimately, [3:14:16] I think they're going to keep grilling in for the next couple of days right here. There's the link [3:14:19] right there so you guys can watch it. Around independence of the Fed. Market was dumping, [3:14:26] now it's not dumping as much. S&P, well, is not at the low of the day at 706.64. Let's see if the [3:14:34] bulls can come in and take control right here. Obviously, the market is a little worried about [3:14:39] his independence, and that was to expect it. I mean, the market's not going to let him easily just [3:14:44] get through being the Fed chair without showing some hiccups. Oil spiking, I think, is more of a [3:14:48] result of Iran and the United States not officially starting their negotiations via their delegates in [3:14:55] Pakistan. I really did not know that Vance was still here. Vance is, I mean, I thought we heard [3:15:03] Trump this morning say Vance and Whitcoff and Kushner are in Pakistan. So maybe I didn't hear [3:15:10] him correctly, but if Vance is still here, I think the market's just wondering who exactly is [3:15:13] negotiating. Is the negotiation happening? You have the Iranian parliament coming out saying [3:15:17] that we're not negotiating. And then you had Trump this morning saying they are negotiating. [3:15:21] Oil's a 93. That is obviously based on the uncertainty of if these negotiations are happening. [3:15:27] Obviously, if they don't happen, it's not going to be good for anybody. Stock market's probably going to [3:15:32] go down. Oil's going to go up. Not going to be fun. So we really need to hope that's taking place. [3:15:37] AMD getting a nice little move right there. 2.3%. AMD is up. Apple again. Tim Cook stepping down. [3:15:42] I guess that's your main reason why it's down 2%. Yeah, the Iranians said they're not negotiating, [3:15:51] but there's different factions of the Iranians because you had the AP report come out at around [3:15:55] 920 that said, I mean, I read it live that the Iranians will be negotiating. I mean, literally, [3:16:03] didn't you guys hear me say the exact quote? We look forward to the negotiations. [3:16:08] Yeah, right here. In other words, our defense forces are on full alert. And at the same time, [3:16:13] we are conducting negotiations. This was from the Iranian government spokesperson at the foreign [3:16:19] ministry. So I don't know, because then, yeah, again, when Warsh was talking, which is why I think [3:16:24] partly we dumped, you had some other Iranian representatives say we're not going to negotiate. [3:16:29] And so I don't think the market exactly knows who to believe. And then you got this advance news where he's [3:16:35] not leaving yet. He's in DC, which is confusing. And so today we're going to need a lot more clarity, [3:16:43] but hopefully it's a little hiccup and it's not something that's that much more aggressive. [3:16:48] Microsoft up on the day. IGV up on the day. Software still doing good. Palantir holding 147. [3:16:53] So your software name is still holding on. Some of your semi names doing great like AMD. [3:16:57] If we end up either flipping green or end up around that 708, 709 level, by the end of the day, [3:17:02] the bulls are just in control. The bulls are just in control. If they're not going to give us [3:17:07] a negative, even half a percent red day, which again, we were used to half a percent down, [3:17:12] one percent down every other day in February and March, we have not even had one in April, [3:17:16] at least since the ceasefire began. So it's in about two weeks, which means if we continue that, [3:17:21] that would be very nice. Nebbius right there, 161. That going green, even with the New Jersey delay, [3:17:25] car up 6% down from 730. Tesla kind of flat at 390. Service now great day at 102. [3:17:33] Amazon, unfortunately not getting a pump off that anthropic news from last night. I mean, [3:17:36] it's up 2%, nothing crazy, but it was at 256, now at 252. And then you got oil up 4%. Oil can flip [3:17:44] down as quickly as oil can flip up. So this is really, I think, driven by headlines here. [3:17:51] And right now the headlines are pointing to maybe the negotiations aren't as likely as people think. [3:17:59] But if that's just false reporting, or that's just misreporting by multiple sources, and we actually see [3:18:05] that reporting is there, or that the negotiations are there, then maybe this ends up flipping, [3:18:12] which is kind of what I think is coming out, which is why we're getting that little bounce. Also, [3:18:15] we did have 20 million of put premium come into the QQQ since 10 AM. So you definitely had a little [3:18:21] bit more bearish option flow come in. And that's obviously a hurting goal of tech. Apple right there, [3:18:27] 267 down about 2%. Nvidia's still holding 200 though. Nvidia's been a champ holding above 200, [3:18:31] which is very strong. See S&P back at 707. All right. That is it for me. I'll be back on the [3:18:39] market close. We got our first taste at Kevin Warsh. And ultimately, I think this question about [3:18:45] how rich he is and his conflicts of interest are going to be questioned more and more. And we'll have [3:18:52] technical Tuesday. And we will see what Jason's thinking of the technicals. And then we'll see, [3:18:57] hopefully, if the negotiations end up happening, which right now, the question is, we don't know if it's [3:19:09] officially happening yet. Word of the day. I feel like I've seen this word before. Brian says, [3:19:18] I had five cups of coffee watching the show. Now I'm running for 15 miles. I haven't had any coffee, [3:19:25] but I think the market keeps us excited enough every single day here. Exigent. I think I've seen [3:19:32] this word before. Exigent, demanding immediate action or attention. In exigent conditions, [3:19:38] execution matters more than perfection. Exigent. [3:19:45] Exigent. Okay. A little bit more stress on the X in that pronunciation. Should we spam Steve with [3:19:55] scooter? Dude, that was hilarious. Dude, they were joking. Seinfeld, scooter. You had so many [3:20:02] random things that they ended up saying there. That was quite an entertaining hearing. And I think [3:20:10] we're going to have a lot more of it to figure out. We got to get used to him. We will be listening to [3:20:13] him for the next six years. Every word this guy says, we will have to pay attention to. So it is [3:20:20] going to be pretty important. Yeah. There's Steve's stream right there. I think he's live. [3:20:25] If you want to go watch, you can spam it with scooter and then I'll be back on the market close. [3:20:30] We'll have Jason and we'll take a look at the technicals that we got. And hopefully we have [3:20:33] better news on these negotiations. I mean, this market could flip so quickly if we get confirmation [3:20:38] that we're having negotiations, but we have to see reporter from news nation. I said last night, [3:20:47] it's still unclear who's going to be in Pakistan to meet VP Vance on the other side of the table. [3:20:51] That still holds true today. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson has told the BBC that a [3:20:55] decision has still not yet been made for an Iranian delegation to travel to Islamabad for a new talk, [3:21:01] for a new round of talks with the United States, which is confusing because this morning they did say [3:21:07] that they will continue conducting negotiations. So yeah, I think the market obviously is more [3:21:16] likely to go down than go up, or at least stay flat if we don't fully know if the negotiations [3:21:20] are happening. One tweet that clears this up, maybe that flips it. That's probably why oil is spiking, [3:21:24] but we're going to have to figure out if that ends up coming to fruition. Okay. There you go. [3:21:33] That's it for me. Thank everybody for being here. We're back for the market close. We'll be here with [3:21:38] Jason technical Tuesday. Hopefully we get some more understanding of if negotiations are taking place, [3:21:44] we'll get a better understanding of the fed new potential chair as we'll get a lot more questions [3:21:49] and I'll try to recap the summary of some of his answers and we'll keep going from there. All [3:21:56] right. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. Have a great day. I'll see you guys in a couple hours [3:22:00] in the market close. Bye everybody. Have a great one.