Trump Iran policy fallout: nuclear deal collapse, blockade threat & rising tensions explained

[0:00] that well iran won't agree to what they agreed to 10 years ago i'm sure iran wonders if we agree to [0:06] it will the united states tear it up again and bomb our civilian infrastructure and kill school [0:11] children and engage in an assassination campaign against our leadership this is not going to be an [0:17] easy negotiation because the last negotiation that led to a control of iran's nuclear program [0:23] the u.s made the decision to tear it up and walk away from the deal i think that decision by [0:28] president trump to tear up a diplomatic deal will go down in history as one of the worst decisions [0:33] in the foreign policy space ever made by an american president if you make diplomacy impossible [0:39] you tend to make more republicans also speaking to journalists this morning ron johnson [0:44] the senator said that he agreed with trump's decisions on this war but he said that this [0:49] would be quote a long-term project going forward of course uh lawmakers on both sides say that they [0:56] are hopeful that there's still room for further negotiations before the ceasefire ends in about [1:01] 10 days time but definite acknowledgement there even from trump's own party that this remains an [1:07] open-ended conflict all right that tells you here's heidi jocastro live for us with all the latest [1:12] from washington dc thanks so much heidi in islamabad mediators are urging the u.s and iran to uphold the [1:18] ceasefire agreement iran's foreign minister abbas alakshi has posted on x saying in intensive talks at [1:25] highest levels in 47 years iran engaged with the u.s in good faith to end the war but when just [1:32] inches away from islamabad mou we encountered maximalism shifting goalposts and blockade zero [1:40] lessons learned goodwill begets goodwill enmity begets enmity civilians have faced the harshest [1:48] consequences of the conflict residents in tehran say they fear fighting could restart [1:53] i was really hoping they would make an agreement and reach a conclusion it's been almost 45 days now [2:02] and i can see the stress in people the bad situation they were in myself the night before they were going [2:07] to attack the infrastructure i was so stressed i stayed awake until 3 a.m i saw the old men sitting [2:13] in the street looking stressed really no one slept that night this is not a good situation for the [2:19] country this is not what our country deserves i feel nothing but despair and hopelessness i would [2:28] like a way for the people of iran to be happy anything that makes the people of iran happy i don't [2:33] like this feeling of uncertainty to discuss all this further i'm joined now by matthew kronik vice [2:40] president of the atlanta council live from washington dc and from the iranian capital is zahra karazmi [2:46] she's an associate professor at the faculty of world studies at the university of tehran welcome [2:51] to you both thanks for being with us here on al jazeera professor karazmi let me start with you [2:56] how do you interpret this latest move by donald trump to blockade the strait of hormuz do you think that [3:01] this can compel iran to potentially reassess their bargaining position it is different aspects i think [3:11] number one is that it's not the first time historically looking at this issue uh iranians actually remember [3:18] 1953 when uh dr musad actually nationalized the iranian oil that time the britain did the same so [3:29] this imperial actually uh exposing power and trying to dictate others what to do or not to do is [3:37] something that is really familiar to the iranians and it's giving a sense of like sort of nationalizing [3:44] swiss canal for example this uh indisputable control over her moses giving the sense of honor that uh [3:52] iran has a good decision to control its territorial actually uh sovereignty well number two is that i [4:00] uh i think uh lots of the you know uh actually drones uh uh aircraft uh uh and uh even about uh i mean [4:12] that what what americans always boasting about the military capabilities they have had have been hit by [4:19] iranians uh on air and ground so i think that the naval is not that exception and they were getting a lot [4:27] of casualties and losses uh because even reaching them is much easier comparing f-35 that was hit or [4:35] hermit drones for example and uh the third issue is that maybe other parties also intervene maybe [4:43] chinese that for example the china that is taking a good portion of its energy from iran so likes to [4:50] escort its uh actually ships and uh then the united states and china should have a deal on uh and it's [4:58] not easy at all it's not easy and technically easy for your for americans to pick and choose among the [5:07] uh actually the vessels that are uh in the strait of hormonal so technically still it's very way how [5:13] they are going to do so and iran also threatened that they are losing bubble mandav at the same time so [5:19] you see that maybe multiple parties step in matthew let me turn to you now let me get your thoughts [5:25] on the feasibility of this plan by the u.s administration i mean do you think the u.s can [5:29] actually enforce this blockade of the strait of hormuz you heard professor kharsmi there talk about some [5:35] of the challenges that could be faced by the u.s going forward what's your take absolutely the united [5:42] states can enforce this blockade it has a global power projecting navy a blue water navy it doesn't have [5:49] to do this in the strait of hormuz it can wait till ships are uh out into the arabian sea or nearing [5:55] their port so this can be a global effort um uh 50 to 70 percent of the iranian government's revenue [6:03] comes from oil and gas exports so this is going to crush their revenues and they're going to face [6:09] difficult dilemmas do they provide subsidies to their people if not maybe that will result in a new [6:15] uprising uh will uh uh they stop paying their security services in which side they in which [6:21] case they might change sides so it's it's pretty clear that tehran is in the difficult position here [6:28] and um you know the solution is pretty simple if they want to not build nuclear weapons like they [6:34] promised to do in the npt if they want to stop threatening international trade if they want to stop [6:40] murdering their own civilians i hope the professor's family wasn't affected by the thousands of iranians [6:47] that were killed by the islamic republic then the solution here is pretty simple the madmen and tehran [6:53] are the problem and they need to come to their senses professor harzmi let me ask you where from your [6:58] vantage point do things stand when it comes to negotiations going forward between the u.s and iran [7:04] once those talks stopped in islamabad there has been a lot of question as to where things stand right [7:09] now is a negotiation actually ongoing have things stopped where does it go from here negotiation is [7:19] meaningful uh only the time that is the wheel of listening and wheel of actually acting upon and the [7:26] united states indicates that is not really serious about it particularly uh from the pressure that they [7:33] are taking they are taking from israel's sides i think israelis have an endless appetite to have [7:39] endless wars and even today there are news that the hebrew press and tv is actually indicating that israel [7:47] is thinking about a new assaults to iranian uh infrastructure and this time it is more hopeful [7:54] that trump does not uh avoid them to do so so i think that washington is not independent and [8:00] the priority of washington is much to preserve the genocidal regime of israel rather than its own people [8:06] benefits and uh during the negotiation islamabad they indicated that they are still thinking uh that [8:14] they are an empire however they're in decline and this time if uh this uh blockade in hormuz [8:21] is a contest between the resilience of the islamic republic and the resilience of the global markets [8:29] you see that who is losing uh and i think that it won't take much time that the united states is to [8:37] uh seize the blockade of hormuz because uh both uh i mean as i told you technically they cannot [8:44] control the situation and also their aircraft carriers like the general for like abraham lincoln [8:49] that they were boasting about and we don't know where they are actually they are miles away from iran [8:56] so i think that the other also destroyers and aircraft carriers would have the same doom so [9:04] with the illusion uh and the sort of doing a sort of hollywood uh actually movie-like uh strategies [9:11] they cannot really act in this battleground uh matthew look earlier you said that the u.s would [9:17] absolutely be able to enforce this blockade but i want to ask you going forward some of the challenges [9:21] that may come into play some of the tactics involved i mean iran obviously can bring a level [9:26] of threat that could potentially jeopardize this mission that the u.s now has whether it's through [9:31] drones whether it's through missiles i mean are you at all concerned about any of those tactics being [9:36] utilized against the u.s going forward and what would that mean well uh iran's remaining drones and [9:44] missiles are clear clearly a problem as your viewers and doha understand iran's been lashing out wildly [9:51] at all its neighbors killing civilians it's it's really out of control but in terms of the blockade [9:57] iran's drones and missiles don't affect that because again america's uh has a blue water navy [10:04] they can enforce this blockade um anywhere they can stop ships uh in in the south china sea they can stop [10:11] ships in the arabian sea well beyond the range of iranian drones and missiles so this is going to put a [10:17] a lot of pressure on uh the government uh the islamic republic the the only question is uh do they [10:23] uh relent or do they continue to cling to power and in the meantime um really hurt the uh prosperity of [10:31] their own people uh hurt their neighbors and hurt the global economy so um it's up to the leaders in [10:38] tehran and of course the leaders in tehran today might not be the leaders next week or two weeks from now so [10:43] if these people aren't willing to negotiate they can be eliminated and we'll try to find people who [10:48] are more reasonable all right we're going to have to leave it there for now uh thanks to both of our [10:52] guests matthew kronig vice president of the atlantic council from washington dc and zora harazmi [10:57] associate professor at the faculty of world studies at the university of tehran thanks so much for joining [11:02] us here on al jazeera