Trump has ‘no real options’ on Iran except diplomacy, analyst says

[0:00] President Donald Trump says the United States has nearly achieved its core objectives [0:04] in the war on Iran. In an address from the White House, Trump said his forces would continue to [0:10] hit Iran extremely hard in the coming weeks. To discuss this and the latest developments in the [0:16] war, we're now joined by Andreas Krieg, who's an associate professor at the School of Security [0:21] Studies at King's College, London. Thank you so much for your time, Andreas. So President Trump [0:25] suggested that he plans to escalate, but also said that military operations are nearing completion. [0:32] What is your assessment of where this is going from a military perspective? What options does [0:37] he have in front of him in the next two to three weeks? There's no real options, apart from [0:44] diplomacy and trying to get a deal with the Iranians in a situation where the bargaining [0:48] situation for the Iranians is much better than for the Americans. The speech yesterday was a sign of [0:54] desperation that this U.S. administration doesn't really have [0:58] any options. It's a sign of desperation. It's a sign of desperation that this U.S. administration [0:58] doesn't really have any options. It's a sign of desperation. It's a sign of desperation. It's a sign of [0:58] desperation. It's a sign of desperation. It's a sign of desperation. It's a sign of desperation. [0:59] To escalate further, they're kind of stuck in a spiral of escalation that they don't control, [1:03] but the Iranians control. He, at the same time in that speech, was saying that he's going to double [1:08] down and he's going to hit harder. He's used very, very disturbing imagery of saying he's going to [1:14] bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, suggesting war crimes against civilians and civilian targets, [1:19] and at the same time kind of providing an opening door for an off ramp, saying we've achieved all [1:23] the targets and if we can call it quits whenever we want to. It didn't make any suggestion, [1:28] as to how the much bigger problem that the world economy is facing right now over the [1:32] straits of our moves is going to be solved. [1:34] It shows how clueless the US administration is, how little strategy they've had since [1:39] the beginning, how little planning has actually gone into it. [1:42] And also in terms of his advisers, there doesn't seem to be anyone who was actually standing [1:46] up to him and saying, listen, we need to find an off ramp and we need to build partnerships [1:51] and build a consensual environment where we can work with our partners in the Gulf, partners [1:55] in Europe and even in Asia to kind of get an off ramp. [1:59] And it doesn't seem like him having any sort of idea of how to do it. [2:03] What we hear from him is compulsion, it's coercion and it's force. [2:07] And he also said that Iran is no longer a threat, but we've seen Iran significantly [2:12] intensify its missile attacks on Israel, for example, in the last 24 hours. [2:18] What what does that suggest to you about the escalation, the Iranian escalation? [2:24] And what do we know? [2:25] About their remaining capabilities, the remaining capabilities are still quite significant. [2:32] We are nowhere near the situation where the Iranians are unable to fire projectiles into [2:37] the Gulf or even into Israel. [2:38] Obviously, these are two different trajectories going into Israel is far more difficult. [2:42] You need to have more sophisticated technologies, much further range missiles. [2:47] But they still seem to have quite a lot of those. [2:49] Those are the most sophisticated ones that have probably just been built after the June [2:53] war in twenty twenty five of them. [2:55] They were able to fire quite a lot. [2:56] And Israel at a time when the entire intelligence networks and the early warning and radar network [3:01] that the US has built across the region has been very much decimated and degraded. [3:05] So what we see now is the Iranians actually able to hit targets much more precisely and [3:09] actually getting through. [3:10] And obviously, when it's about hitting Gulf countries, they need far less sophisticated [3:14] projectiles to do that. [3:15] And then when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, all they need to do there is fire a very cheap [3:20] drone every now and then to disrupt trade and undermine the confidence of markets into [3:24] the into the Strait. [3:25] On the Strait of Hormuz. [3:26] Andreas, I mean, this is an important lever for Iran, no doubt. [3:30] And the U.K. is supposed to be hosting this virtual summit to discuss options to reopen [3:34] the Strait. [3:35] Trump said that as soon as the war ends, things will go back to normal, that this the Strait [3:41] will open up naturally. [3:42] Those were his words. [3:44] How how realistic is that? [3:45] And what do you expect from the Europeans as they discuss these options to reopen the [3:49] Strait? [3:52] I think we're now at a very pivotal point, U.S.-European relations and U.S.-Gulf relations. [3:56] I think there's been a realization in Europe over the last couple of years that the U.S. [3:57] and the U.S. are going to be very close. [3:58] For weeks that the United States is no longer a reliable partner and that Europe has to [4:02] fight for itself. [4:03] And we've seen that already over Ukraine. [4:05] When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, the international community has to come to some [4:09] solution, a multinational, multilateral one. [4:11] And it's not going to be a military one. [4:13] There is no military way to force this gate open. [4:16] And that's been quite clear. [4:18] So any sort of solution has to be a diplomatic one where where where countries engage bilaterally [4:23] or multilaterally with the Iranians directly with or without the Americans to kind of get [4:27] a free passage. [4:28] Restoring the freedom of navigation around the Strait of Hormuz is absolutely pivotal. [4:32] It's a global commons. [4:34] It's a one of the main arteries for the global economy. [4:37] And so all of them have to come together beyond just speaking to one another. [4:41] They need to engage the Iranians independently and do whatever it takes in order to avoid [4:47] the catastrophe that's around the corner, which is stagflation, major inflation at a [4:52] time when already European economies are struggling. [4:55] So that's where that's where we are right now. [4:57] But we cannot wait. [4:58] Donald Trump to make up his mind. [5:00] He doesn't seem to have a plan. [5:02] And so Gulf countries and the Europeans need to work together closely outside of that framework [5:06] of the Americans to kind of retain some sort of autonomy and strategic sovereignty in [5:12] this space. [5:13] Thank you so much. [5:14] Very interesting to hear your thoughts about this. [5:15] Andreas Krieg, professor at King's College, London. [5:17] Thank you for your insights.