Trump has found his Iran off-ramp - but at what cost? — Inside Story

[0:00] Donald Trump has a ceasefire with Iran. [0:03] He's gone from apocalyptic threats to a two-week pause in attacks, [0:07] opening the door to hopes of a more permanent peace. [0:10] But from accusations of war crimes to more threats to pull out of NATO, [0:15] how much has this war already cost the U.S., Iran and the world? [0:19] This is Inside Story. [0:36] Hello again, I'm James Bayes. [0:38] The U.S. president has stepped back from the brink. [0:41] After calling for the destruction of an entire civilization, [0:45] it appears Donald Trump is in the mood for peace. [0:49] He's confirmed that Israel and the U.S. will stop attacking Iran for two weeks, [0:53] while Iran will allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz. [0:56] It was a deal brokered by Pakistan with support from China. [1:00] And while it's not clear if the agreement will lead to lasting peace, [1:05] what's more certain is that the U.S. and the world stage have been changed. [1:09] So how has America been shaped by Trump's war on Iran? [1:13] How has the world order? [1:14] And can any of it be walked back? [1:16] We'll put those questions to our panel of guests in just a moment. [1:19] But first, this report from Michael Apple. [1:21] The pendulum of political rhetoric from the U.S. president has swung wildly in recent days. [1:29] Thank you very much. [1:30] From threatening Iran with civilizational erasure one day, [1:35] to ushering in world peace and the golden age of the Middle East the next. [1:40] From insisting there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender, [1:46] to stating its 10-point plan is a workable basis on which to negotiate an end to the war. [1:53] On the streets of Tehran, many say they do not trust the word of the United States. [1:59] America has shown its true colors a hundred times. [2:03] We were at the negotiating table twice when it attacked us, and this time it will be the same. [2:09] Political observers caution it's best to focus on what Donald Trump does, not what he says. [2:15] My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. [2:21] That's what I want to be, a peacemaker and a unifier. [2:25] At his direction, U.S. forces bombed seven countries last year. [2:30] And six weeks ago, the U.S. alongside Israel launched a military offensive against Iran without congressional approval. [2:38] A lot of us didn't vote for it and don't want to be in a war and don't want to be paying high gas prices for apparently no reason with no strategy. [2:47] The defense secretary was unequivocal. [2:50] There was a strategy, and the U.S. was determined to fight with the gloves off. [2:55] No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. [3:02] Rights groups have raised concern about what they say is the deliberate and systematic weakening of the U.S. military's compliance with international humanitarian law. [3:14] President Trump has shrugged off questions about whether his threats to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges signaled potential war crimes. [3:24] By alienating allies and keeping adversaries guessing, the U.S. president has left the world scrambling to adjust to his whiplash style of diplomacy. [3:38] Mike Lappel, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. [3:41] Well, of course, it's not clear whether the war is over for good or whether there'll be more of that whiplash diplomacy to come. [3:52] But it's a good moment to discuss where things stand with our guests. [3:55] From London, we're joined by Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program, Chatham House. [4:01] She specializes in Iranian and Gulf politics. [4:05] Robert Pape is in Chicago. [4:07] He's professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of The Escalation Trap on Substack. [4:14] And in Bethesda, in Maryland, Kim Whaley. [4:17] She's a professor of constitutional law at the University of Baltimore Law School and author of How to Read the Constitution and Why. [4:25] Thank you, all three of you, for joining us. [4:28] Well, I have worked in this region on and off for 40 years and covered a number of conflicts. [4:35] But rarely in this combustible part of the world has it felt more fragile than when Donald Trump wrote this. [4:43] A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. [4:50] That was his threat, Robert. [4:53] How shocked were you by those words from a U.S. president? [4:58] More shocked than I ever have been in my lifetime in words coming out of a president of the United States. [5:05] What those words represent are the clearest evidence of genocidal intent that we have ever seen come out of a president of the United States. [5:19] He is clearly saying that he wants to end the civilization in Iran. [5:27] That is what the genocide treaties and accords deal with. [5:30] And he is then threatening 92 million Iranians and effectively also nuclear attack. [5:40] This is immoral. [5:42] This is genocidal intent. [5:44] And this is highly dangerous. [5:47] Every American, not just yesterday, but every American is now in danger wherever they travel in the world as a result of this. [5:56] And you can see the anger on the streets in Iran. [5:58] And that's just what you see. [6:00] That's what's above the waterline. [6:03] There is undoubtedly deeper anger. [6:05] And it's not just coming from the government of Iran. [6:09] Kim, you are our lawyer. [6:11] Let me quote you the New York Times. [6:13] It was a stunning threat delivered with all the casual callousness that's become President Trump's preferred style of communication. [6:21] Callous, or also, as Robert has suggested, they're illegal, given that he has been threatening civilian infrastructure, threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. [6:32] This is a lawless presidency. [6:36] The rule of law is not functioning in the United States. [6:39] The Constitution, on a number of fronts, has been effectively suspended. [6:43] The First Amendment, the Fourth Amendment, the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment, Congress's appropriations power. [6:50] The Supreme Court pushed back on tariffs, but lots of statutes enacted by the Congress have been ignored. [6:58] Appointment and removal, Elon Musk, no constitutional authority for him or for Doge, [7:03] the so-called agency that he headed to slash and burn thousands of jobs and dismantle USIAD that's led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in the continent of Africa. [7:16] So this is just one more step, as shocking as it is, in a rapid cascade of the norms and laws being suspended in the United States. [7:29] So it's shocking, but I agree with Robert that this is something that it's time for Americans and the world to wake up to the threat of Donald Trump, [7:40] which has been very clearly laid out now since his first term and in Project 2025 leading up to the 2024 election. [7:49] But it seems like people still are hoping that somewhere along the line there'll be some internal checks when external checks have completely failed us. [7:58] But I think this it's very clear there are no internal checks on this particular man. [8:02] And now it's expanded across the globe in terms of threats to international law, to to security of individuals, as well as the global economy. [8:14] Sanam, what's particularly frightening, of course, is he's one of the few people on Earth who actually has that power to erase civilization. [8:21] And the holder of his office is the only person who's ever done that in history. [8:26] President Harry Truman ending World War Two bombing, ordering the bombing of Hiroshima on August the 6th, 1945, followed by Nagasaki three days later. [8:37] Yes, indeed. I mean, that historical precedent certainly looms. [8:44] And Donald Trump's really egregious and undignified statements yesterday, I think, scared everyone, quite frankly, in in and across Iran. [8:54] I think it was a sleepless night for most people, but also across the Middle East. [8:58] More broadly, people were very panicked about what to expect, not anticipating the so-called nuclear doom that you referred to, but that this war would take a dangerous turn and lead to escalation that would then lead to counter escalation. [9:16] And we would get mired into a trap, if you will, that would be very hard to come down from. [9:24] So this ceasefire is very welcome. But President Trump's statements continue to shock and awe and actually worry American partners and allies everywhere that the U.S. continues to be unreliable. [9:37] Unreliable and having executed this war without adequate planning and have, of course, relied on faulty assumptions and not really thought through the known unknowns of this war. [9:54] People are very worried about what comes next and, of course, questioning whether this ceasefire will be durable. [10:01] Robert, let me put the other side to you. His supporters will tell you Trump is forthright. [10:08] He speaks his mind. That is why he was elected to the job. [10:12] And as Sanam just said to us, shock and awe, she mentioned, 2003 in Baghdad, the bombing of Baghdad. [10:21] I was there in the Iraqi capital at the time. It was terrifying. [10:25] But that phrase was used, was it not then, as well as a psychological weapon? [10:30] Well, we need to understand that there is a value in clarity in speech, but there's extreme danger when that clarity is threatening civilization erasure. [10:45] So this is not just simply a matter of, well, there's a person who speaks his mind. [10:50] We know what he actually thinks. [10:52] What we are seeing here is that the president of the United States, as you just mentioned, [10:57] is one of a handful of people that we can count on one hand, who literally could kill, in a matter of hours, 92 million Iranians. [11:10] That is not something North Korea can do. [11:13] That is not something other, very many other countries can do. [11:16] This is something that the president of the United States literally has the case, the suitcase, within his grasp at all times and orders. [11:28] And there's no reason, although we might think that those orders will not be obeyed. [11:33] We need to understand that he has fired with Pete Hegseth the generals who might stand in the way of implementing those orders. [11:41] So this is really an enormously dangerous situation, and that's why you are already hearing calls for the 25th Amendment. [11:51] This is unlikely going to go away, because that statement by Donald Trump, even if he took it off his true social, [11:57] history will not forget a statement of true genocidal intent by the sitting president of the United States with thousands of nuclear weapons, [12:08] at his behest, within 20 minutes, those Minutemen 3, those 500, could easily do that job. [12:17] Kim, I mean, we've also had the White House putting out clips of war footage mixed in with video games. [12:26] And as you know, many U.S. citizens live in very comfortable suburban lives a very long way from armed conflict. [12:34] Do you think it desensitizes people, that they begin to forget that people in Iran are human beings who are suffering and who are dying? [12:46] Without question. [12:47] Even in the United States, when there was violence and two murders at the hands of ICE agents in Minneapolis and Minnesota, [12:54] I think the sense in the United States tends to be, well, it's not me. [12:58] It's not my family. [12:59] It's not my backyard. [13:00] It doesn't affect me. [13:01] Number one. [13:02] Number two would be, well, what can I do about it? [13:05] I don't really have a lot of agency. [13:08] And there's a lot of kicking the can down until the elections in November. [13:12] Somehow that the midterms, if the House goes to the Democrats, it will magically fix everything when it comes to this presidency. [13:20] But the United States Congress has been asleep at the wheel. [13:24] You know, there was no declaration of war and there was no imminent threat. [13:27] And we're seeing so much misinformation and downright lies coming out of the administration, coming out of lawyers from the Department of Justice in open court and various federal courts across the country. [13:41] We're seeing federal judges issue very strongly worded opinions about the lawlessness of this administration, about core principles of the United States Constitution. [13:52] But at the highest levels in the Congress, they're not actually utilizing the tools that are in place to push back against this presidency, including impeachment, the 25th Amendment, even a declaration stating that this war is outside the scope of Donald Trump's constitutional authority. [14:11] And so and then at the same time, we have the United States Supreme Court that is greenlighting a lot of, I think, pretty clear constitutional legal violations. [14:22] So so so the people, I think, are confused in the United States, not only complacent, but confused, fearful, they feel disempowered. [14:31] And it's increasingly difficult to know where to go for accurate information when there are threats against the media. [14:39] And we have some large media entities that seem to be bowing to the threats of defamation lawsuits and other kinds of retaliation from this president. [14:49] So so so we really are beyond a red line in the United States when it comes to the rule of law. [14:55] And it's really a challenge to get Americans writ large to wake up to the threat. [14:59] So now you're there in London, the UK, one of the U.S.'s strongest traditional allies. [15:09] The allies, most of them, were not consulted about this war before it started. [15:14] What's the view of the way it has been conducted, not militarily, but the direction, the political direction of the war, the sort of things that we've been talking about? [15:26] Well, I think a few things come to mind, first of all, the objectives of this war were not clear from the get go. [15:34] The goals and the goalposts shifted many times over the past few weeks. [15:39] On the one hand, that sort of elasticity, you know, could be positive because it allows President Trump an exit ramp and to to form the narrative. [15:50] But from the allies and partners perspective, they have been watching the U.S. sort of sleepwalk into what wasn't a quick four or five day war, as was originally promised on February 28th and a war that would change or alter the 47 year adversarial relationship between Iran and the United States. [16:12] But it's become obviously a regional war with not limited to just strikes on Iran, but a regional war where the entire Middle East has borne the consequences of Iran's retaliation. [16:28] There have been economic consequences that have been spread beyond the Middle East. [16:32] And so this has inevitably also impacted Europe, the U.K., Gulf partners more broadly. [16:40] And so that's very dangerous. [16:41] And then optically, the inconsistency from the Trump White House in its messaging and its, you know, egregious language, again, has made this war deeply unpopular here in the U.K., but I think more broadly across Europe. [16:59] And this is what has driven reluctance from America's transatlantic partners to participate and support this this war effort. [17:09] There is a whole scale sort of belief that the Islamic Republic has been historically destabilizing across the Middle East. [17:18] Europe has, of course, taken a strong position in imposing snapback sanctions against Iran for its accelerating nuclear program. [17:26] So there would have been an opportunity for allies to work together, but not in this sort of shoddy war planning without real objectives. [17:39] And, of course, because this war didn't take into consideration the legal norms of war, that has also raised a lot of eyebrows and questions here and brought up rifts between Washington and Whitehall as well. [17:59] Robert, I mean, in terms of President Trump's recent statements, I read the one about destruction of a civilization. [18:09] Immediately after that, there was a complete 180. [18:12] I did a check of it 16 hours and five minutes later after saying there was going to be the destruction of a civilization. [18:21] He was messaging on his social media app, a big day for world peace. [18:26] There'll be lots of positive action. [18:28] Big money will be made. [18:29] Iran can start the reconstruction process. [18:32] This could be the golden age of the Middle East. [18:35] I mean, do you think he's presenting problems for himself there, boxing himself in and his negotiators? [18:41] It's beyond boxing himself in. [18:45] He's presenting the image of a truly delusional individual who has lost touch with reality. [18:53] I have no idea. [18:54] I'm not able to judge that. [18:56] I'm not a professional in that regard. [18:59] But everybody who will see that will know that this is not a statement on planet Earth. [19:05] What we have seen, yes, a fragile ceasefire, but bigger than that, is a giant shift in the world balance of power. [19:12] Iran is now the emerging fourth center of power. [19:16] It is now the United States, China, Russia, and Iran that are the world centers of power. [19:24] And you're seeing that in that Donald Trump is having to kowtow to Iran's demands through Pakistan to be sure that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz in cooperation. [19:37] Any ship that has to pass has to cooperate with the Iranian military now. [19:42] This is enormous power, and it is world power. [19:46] It is not simply regional power. [19:48] And then on top of that, as you're pointing out, this is in sharp contradiction to his civilization ending post just 16 hours before. [19:57] So what you are seeing is somebody bouncing all around from, should I kill 92 million people today, or should we have a giant celebration? [20:07] This is the very definition of that delusional actor that we fear about. [20:13] And by the way, we make movies about, but this is not a movie. [20:16] This is the real world, and this is going to have real world consequences. [20:19] Our allies are not going to be down in NATO, even if Donald Trump now would say he will cooperate with NATO to defend Ukraine. [20:29] The idea that our allies are going to let Donald Trump control their nuclear weapons, that's what Article 5 means. [20:36] The United States, in an Article 5 operation, the United States controls the nuclear buttons here. [20:41] That is just not happening. [20:43] NATO is dead. [20:44] We're just now writing its obituary, but it's dead in all the practical terms. [20:51] Kim, I mean, there is an argument, and I'm going to put the other side, that Trump is a breath of fresh air. [21:00] Lawyers are too loyally. [21:02] Diplomats are too diplomatic. [21:04] He speaks like a normal person, and that's why you get these sort of comments. [21:09] What do you make of that argument? [21:12] That's been floating around for quite a long time, [21:15] and that's one of the major justifications that many MAGA voters made for Donald Trump. [21:20] And I think, you know, there's a lot, there's a, it's a broad spectrum. [21:23] It's hard to generalize, but there's certainly a lot of strife and struggle going on in the United States just to make ends meet. [21:32] Even before this Iran crisis, prices are skyrocketing. [21:37] We don't have the kind of infrastructure that European and some European countries and other places have in terms of housing, food, health care, those kinds of things. [21:46] And people are frustrated with government. [21:48] And he came in and said, I'm going to smash, you know, all the China in the, in the room. [21:53] And he did. [21:54] And I think the sense was, okay, maybe our lives will get better. [21:58] And then, of course, there's a psychological, personal identification now, almost a cult-like identification that's gone on for many years. [22:06] That being said, there are a couple things that are working against him, and his poll numbers are dropping. [22:12] One, of course, is the Epstein files, which has, that, that discussion has now been shifted to Iran. [22:18] So he's very good at changing the narrative. [22:21] And I'm not saying that's why he's done this reckless maneuver with respect to Iran. [22:26] But the second is gas prices are going up in the United States pretty rapidly. [22:30] And there's increasingly, even some of the talking heads that have been in, you know, squarely in the MAGA movement are pushing back, including people like Tucker Carlson saying, wait a minute. [22:41] This is not what we signed up for, particularly given that the increases in gas is because of this unnecessary war when he campaigned on no more wars, anti-support for Ukraine, for example. [22:56] And so we're, we're seeing a shift, but what's concerning to me about it, having written not only about the Constitution, but about voting and electoral politics, is that the fact that the base is not supporting the president the way maybe they were, is not shifting the Republican Party in the United States Congress to let go of their devout loyalty to him. [23:20] Which makes me wonder whether that party is really concerned that elections in the United States are going to work as a mechanism of accountability and pushback, not just for Donald Trump, but for the party. [23:33] So again, we are in many, for many reasons, we're in very, a very precarious moment domestically and globally. [23:41] And there's not an obvious way out of the thicket in the, in the sense that was available to Americans for many, many years, but people just weren't willing to listen. [23:52] And now it's difficult again to see how we can turn this around. [23:56] For now, it looks like we're in the realm of diplomacy, although it's not entirely clear that the fighting is definitely over for good. [24:05] But of course, last year in June, and when this war started on the, uh, February the 28th, there had been active diplomacy underway. [24:14] And Iran accuses the US of using that diplomacy as a cover to launch the war on each occasion. [24:20] Where does the word of the US stand right now? [24:24] And is that going to make things difficult in forthcoming talks? [24:29] Well, absolutely. [24:30] That's why Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, not a 45-day ceasefire. [24:35] Iran is well aware that its attritional horizontal war has also imposed military costs on Israel and the United States. [24:44] Interceptors are depleting and, uh, agreeing to a longer-term ceasefire would have allowed, uh, the other side to perhaps regroup. [24:55] Um, so this narrow window is very much focused on, on, you know, that particular aspect. [25:00] I think the Iranians are very well aware that this is a potentially, um, a repeat of what we saw, um, just before the February 28th war. [25:11] There were negotiations in Geneva. [25:13] We also saw those negotiations last year in Oman before the 12-day war. [25:17] So I think that they, um, are clearly calculating that, uh, President Trump, um, it could be, uh, just goading them in to calm markets, to reassure partners and allies. [25:29] And it's important to, to also watch what is happening in the region. [25:33] Yes, uh, there have still been strikes and counterstrikes today, but the US is still moving assets into the Middle East. [25:39] Troops are still there and mounting. [25:41] So the escalation scenarios that were on the table prior to the ceasefire still hover over, um, the discussions that will take place in Islamabad. [25:51] So there's no guarantee we're going to get to an off-ramp. [25:54] Let me bring in Robert again. [25:56] The way Trump has been conducting this, I mean, if other world leaders follow this high-stakes, um, method of Donald Trump, [26:06] where is that going to leave the world order? [26:08] Do we have a situation of escalation and miscalculation? [26:14] Uh, yes, we are not out of the escalation trap for three reasons. [26:19] Number one, US military forces are in the region poised to strike. [26:25] Number two, um, the enriched uranium is still there. [26:28] And Secretary Haig, Seth, just before we came on, said, we're going to get that uranium. [26:34] And number three, uh, Donald Trump has twice used, uh, diplomacy as cover for surprise attack. [26:42] So we need to understand the escalation trap is not over. [26:45] It is still there. [26:46] And what we are seeing is maybe the most dangerous phase of the escalation trap to come. [26:52] Robert Pape, thank you very much. [26:54] Robert Pape, Sanam Vakil, and King Wei Leith. [26:58] There are fast-moving developments on this story, and you can find all the detail and analysis on our website, aljazeera.com. [27:04] We'd like your comments, too. [27:06] Go to our Facebook page. [27:07] That's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story. [27:10] Or on X, tag us with your post at AJ Inside Story. [27:14] That's it from me, James Bayes, and the team here in Doha. [27:17] Stay tuned for more Al Jazeera coverage coming up in a moment.