Trump 'coerced' Netanyahu into a Lebanon ceasefire, says former Israeli diplomat

[0:00] Well, for more on the ceasefire in Lebanon, I'm joined by Alan Pincus. [0:03] He's a former Israeli diplomat and joins us from Tel Aviv. [0:06] Alan, it's good to see you again. Thank you for being with us. [0:08] Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that this is an opportunity [0:12] to forge a historic peace agreement with Lebanon. [0:16] What does that look like? [0:20] He says a lot of things. I wouldn't take him at face value. [0:25] He's saying this because he was coerced into this by President Trump. [0:30] This is not a ceasefire that he wanted. [0:33] And I'm not yet sure about the exact contours of the ceasefire. [0:38] And I think one of your reporters correctly reported just a few moments ago [0:43] that there is a Hezbollah kill zone in the south of Lebanon, [0:47] and it's not at all clear that the ceasefire will include that area. [0:54] And once the ceasefire becomes partial, it ceases to be a ceasefire. [0:59] So I'm not sure about that. [1:01] Now, as for his declaration of peace with Lebanon, look, we've been in this opera before. [1:08] Back in the 80s, there was a peace agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon. [1:13] And when Israel withdrew from south Lebanon in the year 2000, in May of 2000, [1:19] there was again talk of a peace agreement. [1:22] And then again in 2006 after another round of war, and now we're doing this again. [1:28] I think Mr. Netanyahu failed, and I'm not saying it's entirely his fault [1:33] because I think it was unattainable to begin with. [1:36] He failed in his stated objective of disarming Hezbollah [1:40] and basically ridding Hezbollah as a military and political force. [1:44] And I honestly cannot see any peace agreement being signed between Israel and Lebanon [1:51] with Hezbollah still armed. [1:54] And for that matter, I don't see anyone disarming Hezbollah. [1:58] So I'm less optimistic than some of your other reporters were. [2:03] So, Alan, I guess that begs the question then, [2:06] why agree to a ceasefire and what could conceivably come out of it then? [2:10] Well, he had no choice. [2:14] And here's the paradox of all this, Riley. [2:18] The Iranians, those that both Trump and Netanyahu claim that they have been obliterated [2:24] and eviscerated and annihilated and decimated and have nothing, [2:30] shut the Strait of Hormuz again saying that a Lebanon ceasefire is part of their ceasefire deal [2:39] with the U.S., which the U.S. agreed to, but then a day later reneged on the 9th of April. [2:47] So now the Iranians are basically proving to Trump that if he wants to do business, [2:51] and he does want to do business because he wants out of this debacle that he got himself into, [2:57] if he wants to conclude a deal with Iran, Lebanon needs to be on the table. [3:03] Until two or three days ago, Riley, I don't think anyone heard Mr. Trump even mention Lebanon. [3:10] He couldn't care less about Lebanon. [3:12] It's got nothing to do with his war with Iran, according to him. [3:18] Now, all of a sudden, he has an opportunity to pivot away from the failure of the war with Iran, [3:26] and it was a failure in many respects, and claimed that he's orchestrated another spectacular war-ending peace agreement. [3:38] Once he made that decision to pivot, he made it, I assume, he made it unequivocally clear to Mr. Netanyahu [3:47] that the ceasefire has to happen, and it has to happen in the next 48 hours. [3:51] So this is my question then, Alan, sorry if I can jump in on you, is how much then of this ceasefire [3:56] depends on the fact that the U.S. president is trying to make a deal with Iran? [4:01] Because at the beginning, you said that you believe that Netanyahu was forced into this by the president. [4:07] So doesn't the president then have some weight to hold this ceasefire to tell Israel that, like, [4:13] at least this 10 days, there is a ceasefire here? [4:16] Oh, yeah. Oh, absolutely. That's what I meant. [4:19] Per your question, how much of that has to do with the president trying to strike a deal with [4:24] Iran? 99%. Would he, you know, force Israel to abide by the ceasefire? 100%. [4:34] Will the ceasefire hold is a different matter. I don't know. Because of what I mentioned a moment [4:41] earlier, based on what your reporter said a few moments ago, that if South Lebanon is off the table [4:49] and is not under the jurisdiction, per se, of such a ceasefire, then the ceasefire will collapse [4:56] pretty soon. By the way, the Lebanese would not agree to it. And so the ceasefire has to be adhered [5:03] to 100%. And I think you're right, Riley. Trump will make it abundantly clear to Netanyahu [5:09] to abide by the ceasefire. And so, Alan, because we know that Netanyahu has already said that leaving [5:16] South Lebanon during this ceasefire is off the table, is there something political, whether it's [5:23] normalizations with Lebanon, whether it's something else, is there, like, a political goal at the end of [5:29] this that could outweigh the need for this military operation? Um, conceivably, yes. You know, if Israel [5:38] withdraws from Lebanon, I mean, there's not going to be any peace deal. There's not going to be any [5:42] normalization as long as Israel, according to the Lebanese, is occupying a portion of their country [5:48] in South Lebanon between the Israeli border and the, uh, and the Netanyi River, which is just a few [5:54] miles, but nonetheless, it's, it's, it's a buffer. And until, and after, uh, Israel withdraws from there, [6:00] there's not going to be any peace deal, let alone, uh, diplomatic relations and normalization. [6:05] Um, is there a silver lining? Yes. If Hezbollah ceases to be a military force and, and, and goes back [6:12] to being the way it started, a, a, a, a social and political movement, then Israel has no say on the [6:19] matter. But, you know, uh, it's been, it's been three decades that people have been making that [6:25] argument and it hasn't happened until now. Okay. Alan Pincus, a former Israeli diplomat. We always [6:31] appreciate your insight here on Al Jazeera. Thanks for being with us. Thank you.