Trump ADMITS DEFEAT During WILD PRESS Conference

[0:00] Welcome to Pod Save America. My guest today is an old friend of mine. She actually stole my car [0:05] literally 25 years ago. She gave it back. It's fine. Without guessing it. Long story. But today [0:12] Sarah Longo has left a life of crime behind her to become the publisher of The Bulwark. You can [0:18] find her on excellent podcasts like The Next Level, The Focus Group. Sarah, it's great to see you. [0:23] Thanks, man. It's great to see you. You are in my office, just so people know. [0:26] It's very nice. It's a very professional, very nice office here in D.C. And I'm so grateful to [0:31] be here because I want to take stock of this political moment. We're like six months out [0:34] from the midterms. We're all letting ourselves get excited. But you do more focus groups with [0:40] voters than anyone I know, like several a week. And I want to ask you about those conversations [0:45] because we're all sickos who, you know, hoover up the latest polls. But I think you can really learn [0:50] interesting insights by listening to voters. What a crazy concept. [0:54] It's almost like they're the people who comprise this democracy of ours. [0:57] It's almost like they make the decisions. And by the way, if listeners are as obsessed [1:00] with this stuff as we are and they want to learn more, you should right now pause the [1:05] podcast and preorder Sarah's book, How to Eat an Elephant, One Voter at a Time. [1:10] You'll learn about Sarah's life, her time in politics, the insight she's gleaned from literally [1:15] thousands of hours of focus group conversations with voters. And also, if you preorder it now, [1:20] what that means is when the New York Times bestseller list comes out, she will be on it. [1:25] And like Don Jr.'s triggered to or whatever bullshit book is getting bulk ordered by the RNC [1:31] will get bounced. That's right. [1:33] So I think this is important. [1:34] It is important to me that no super PAC is buying this book to get it on the list, [1:40] that it is made up of real people in large part because I want people to hear. And sometimes [1:45] people are like, oh, my God, do I have to listen to voters? And I'm like, yes. [1:50] Was you doing a JBL impression right there? [1:51] I was doing a JBL impression, yeah. [1:53] Sarah and the Bulwark team, they're an independent pro-democracy media. So are we at Crooked Media. [1:58] Check out everything the Bulwark is doing. Go to Substack. They have amazing podcasts. [2:01] They do written content. You should be a subscriber. I've been a subscriber for a long time. [2:05] It's so good. Nice of you. [2:06] I mean, it's great stuff. And by the way, please follow Pod Save America here on YouTube and consider [2:11] becoming a subscriber to what we're doing here. Go to crooked.com slash friends because as Sarah [2:15] knows, subscribing is like literally the best thing you can do for independent media. Advertising [2:20] is great, but it is not enough. And if you subscribe, you get ad-free episodes, you get [2:23] bonus episodes of Pod Save America, deep dives into polling with Dan Pfeiffer. So it's a good deal. [2:28] Crooked.com slash friends. Okay. So Sarah, let's start with what you're hearing about Donald Trump [2:34] himself. On the Focus Group pod, you guys recently talked about, it was like Catholic Trump and [2:39] Harris voters. You talked about, it was Trump voters who were angry at him. There was an [2:44] interesting Iran war podcast. There's tons of great episodes people should check out. But like, [2:48] what are the big themes and problems and concerns that kind of keep arising? [2:52] Yeah. Okay. So the easy one is, so we asked the same question at the beginning of every group. [2:57] How do you think things are going in the country? There was only one answer to that question that we [3:01] are hearing right now. Great. Two thumbs up. [3:04] It is bad. Nobody thinks things are good, including some of the people who still support [3:09] Trump. Like, they don't think things are going well. People who are still riding with Trump just [3:13] tend to have hope that maybe they will start going well at some point because you got to trust the [3:18] plan, Tommy. You trust the plan, we might get there. But the big thing is just costs, right? [3:23] Everybody talks about, how do you think things are going in the country? People say, bad. [3:27] Gas prices are high. We're suddenly in a war with Iran. You know, I wanted Trump to deport [3:33] criminals, but he's doing all this other stuff. And it's this pervasive feeling. In fact, we just [3:39] did a focus group, and I really liked this group. It was people who are still approvers of Trump, [3:44] people who are still rocking with him, that 32%. I've got my bush line, right? But people who are, [3:52] let's call it, below the bush line, people who are like, I'm still in it with Trump. Surprised I [3:56] managed to get that by you without you giggling. I did smile. [3:59] You can't. Do you know that I coined that phrase entirely innocently and only until I said it to [4:04] Tim Miller? And the reason I'm laughing is because I was texting with Tim about this today, and I [4:08] asked him for oppo about you, and he responded, the bush line. Yeah. Well, they bastardize things [4:15] that I take purely. I know. You're so innocent compared to him. [4:19] So, but the people who are still riding with Trump, who think things are going great, [4:25] even they think that the state of the country, like the way that we relate to each other, [4:30] is awful. Like they feel like the country is a powder keg. They feel like we're too divided. [4:34] They're scared about civil war. And so there's this like deep pervading sense or pervasive sense [4:40] of unease. But the prices are the things you hear because when prices are high, people's anxiety [4:47] is high. And they've been high kind of now for a long time. And so people are starting to crack. [4:52] And I got to tell you, a year ago, what we would hear from these voters is, okay, like Trump is going [4:58] to fix it. And like Rome wasn't built in a day, but I think he's going to get there. And like every [5:03] week, you just see sort of the sliding off of the optimism from Trump voters that say, [5:08] I think things are going to get better. Like they just see things getting worse. [5:12] It jives with what I've heard from others. Like folks probably heard of Swing Left. [5:17] They are a great grassroots organization. They're doing this big canvassing project called Ground [5:21] Truth, where they don't do like a walk list. It's not like the Democratic Party saying like, [5:25] hey, knock on these Democratic doors. They're knocking on every door and they're trying to have [5:29] longer conversations. And, you know, issues rise and fall, right? Like the Iran war happens and all of a [5:34] sudden that spikes in what they're hearing. But the number one issue, like lingering pervasive issue, [5:38] is about the integrity of the political system itself. It's about trust. And that ranges from [5:44] corruption. It's people feeling like politicians lie and they're self-dealing. It's that the system [5:49] is corrupted or captured by corporate interests. And it's just, you know, it's interesting that they're [5:55] hearing that you're hearing the same thing. Like that is like the mood music. [5:59] Yeah. And I think like to the extent that we now take our signals are also bifurcated and everywhere, [6:05] but they all come together in this thing that we now call vibes. And one of the things I talk about [6:10] in the book is the rise of the vibes voter. And like the vibes are bad and Trump's vibes are bad. [6:16] And the, you know, it's funny that the way you just said it, which is around corruption and things, [6:23] a lot of the things about doing the focus groups is you get a lot of specifics into that. So like, [6:27] what are people angry about? Well, they're angry that Trump lied and said, [6:31] we weren't going to get into these stupid wars. And now we're at war with Iran. They're upset about [6:36] Epstein. Epstein comes up a lot. I think a lot of people thought like, this isn't a real story. [6:41] This isn't actually going to matter. But for a lot of the voters, Epstein isn't just about Epstein. [6:47] It's about the idea that Trump was supposed to be somebody who was going to be transparent, [6:50] right? And he was going to put people in his cabinet. There's a secret cabal running everything, [6:54] but we're going to tell you the truth. We're on your side. And there's a sense of betrayal [6:59] around that, which is why I always think about the people who are still part of the people who [7:03] approve of Trump. For them, what they have is like, they're keeping the faith in Trump that [7:08] it's going to come, but they're clear that it hasn't come yet. And we're not getting it right now. [7:13] Interesting. So we both are in the media world now, but like at heart, we're political hacks [7:18] who especially focus on messaging and how to go after Trump. The messaging that resonates with me, [7:25] my bias, my prior is around corruption, because I think the corruption bucket gives you the why, [7:31] right? It's like it explains why Trump is pushing bad tax policies because his donors want them, [7:35] bad foreign policy, crypto, like it can apply to everything. And I think Senator John Ossoff has [7:41] been messaging this, I think, a really effective, interesting way. We'll drop in a clip here. [7:46] How much do you guys know about Jared Kushner, Ivanka's husband? He's on the Saudi payroll for $2 [7:52] billion. And now he's leading American diplomacy in the Middle East, apparently while at the very [7:58] same time asking princes and shakes across the Arab world to give him billions more. [8:04] Can you imagine like a normal sitting U.S. ambassador just hitting up Saudi crown prince [8:11] Mohammed bin Salman for billions of dollars? The rules are for us, not for them. And it's not just [8:18] Jared getting in on the action. A company owned in part by Eric and Don Jr. has been pitching [8:23] Gulf kingdoms on its drone interceptors during this war. Never before have we seen so little effort [8:32] to hide so much corruption. Do you think this is effective messaging, what Ossoff is saying? [8:38] Is this kind of thing like popping in groups? Yeah. And here's the thing about corruption. Okay, [8:42] so I'm going to put a different frame on it, which is, like I said, people are focused on prices, [8:47] they're focused on affordability, but you can make everything an economic issue. Corruption especially [8:52] can be an economic issue, right? It's about a total story you're telling. And it's saying he's getting [8:58] rich while you're getting poor. Everything has to have the contrast to it. You know, I remember I'm [9:04] talking to people, I'm like, him bad, you good. Like, like, let's get like some real basics, [9:11] right? Trump bad, you good. Republicans bad, Dan's good. Like, yeah, that's right. He break, [9:17] we fix. It's like, get the contrast in there. I am minorly developing an obsession with Jon Ossoff, [9:24] entirely based on tight shirts and good messaging. Yeah, which is funny, because that's not for me [9:29] exactly. But it is, it's for me either. But he gets hard not to see it. But man, the calm stuff [9:34] just has me swooning. Yes. The demeanor, the vibes. Yeah, the way he's doing, like, so there's a couple [9:42] things he's doing. One is cadence, right? He's holding an audience in his hand. And that's the [9:46] stuff you can't teach. Some of it is that the handsomeness of it all, like the optics of feeling [9:53] like, oh, oh, you look, you look like a person I could see being president. He's got nice young man [9:59] energy, similar to Obama. And some others, Pete Buttigieg has some of that, you know, nice young man [10:06] energy, which I think works with a lot of the moms. I think, you know, there's always a soccer mom or [10:11] a, you know, security mom or whatever. Let's just have the nice young man moms that could be coming [10:16] out for Democrats this time. But the thing about Ossoff is that he is a natural contrast storyteller. [10:22] He is saying, and a lot of people get, they worry, well, look, if I, if I start talking about [10:27] corruption, people are going to get bored or they don't understand the ins and outs. He trusts people [10:32] to understand where he's going with it. And he says, have you heard? Did you know? Did you see this? [10:37] I'm here to give you this information if you haven't been getting it in your bubble. It's so good. [10:41] It's like, it's so simple. It's like an old Leno bit. It's like, do you hear about this one? [10:44] You read this one? Yeah. And so I am finding him from an optics cadence and message discipline [10:51] standpoint to be doing the thing that I've been feeling pretty desperate for politicians to do, [10:57] which is find a way to rhetorically get your arms around the chaos. And people get distracted. It [11:02] feels like it's so much. And the voters feel like it's too much. But he's like, no, I'm going to focus [11:06] your attention on these things. And they provide the contrast, not just him versus Trump, but the way [11:14] in which he's approaching issues versus the corruption of Trump and corruption. Trump's [11:21] getting richer. You're getting poorer. Like that's the contrast. Yeah. Maria Bartiroma saying congrats, [11:27] Don and Eric on your drone contract from the Pentagon or whatever. [11:30] I don't know if you know this, but Hunter Biden had a painting. [11:34] Yeah, right. Yeah. Had a kind of Burisma. I want to talk about how Democrats should chip away [11:39] at this Trump coalition from 2024 and kind of build their own big, motley anti-Trump coalition. [11:47] You and your co-hosts on The Next Level had a spirited debate about Tucker Carlson [11:51] and his turn from Trump and denunciation of Trump. Let's listen to Tucker talking about that. [11:56] You and I and everyone else who supported him, you wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. [12:01] I mean, we're implicated in this for sure. Yes. It's not enough to say, well, I changed my mind [12:07] or like, oh, this is bad. I'm out. It's like in very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and [12:14] millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now. Yes. So I do think it's like [12:21] a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. [12:26] I will be. And I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people. It was not intentional. [12:33] That's all I'll say. You and JBL and Tim, you know, I think you guys had sort of different takes [12:38] on how to respond to Tucker or what you made of Tucker. I'll let you talk about that. But I think [12:43] I sort of landed in the middle ground listening to you guys like, yes, you know, Tucker is someone [12:49] I think we should be skeptical of because he's sort of in the media political business. [12:54] It was knowable. And there's evidence that he did know that Trump was a charlatan. [12:59] But I do think he was sincerely disappointed and angry that Trump went full neocon and like [13:04] invaded Venezuela and now is at war with Iran. A lot of it is undergirded by this anger at the [13:11] Israeli government and Bibi Netanyahu that can bear anti-Semitism. And we have to watch that. [13:16] But I'm curious, like, how do you think Democrats use these comments? Because it's him. [13:20] It's Alex Jones. It's Candace Owens. Not like Lib fan favorites usually, but saying things [13:25] that are potentially helpful to us. Yeah. I mean, this I think this ends up being like kind [13:30] of weirdly an academic debate as opposed to a practical one, because as a practical matter, [13:34] use the shit out of all of it. Right. Like amplify the fractures in their coalition. [13:41] Like, again, just with the framework of him, good, they, bad. Like you want them to fall [13:46] apart. You want to hold your side together. Like and I think that, though, people get wrapped [13:51] up a little bit in whether you have to sort of welcome people into the tent. This is a phrase [13:55] where people decide who's in the coalition and who's out of the coalition. Is there a gate [14:00] somewhere? Well, there's this has been a big, big conversation lately. Right. I mean, I know [14:04] you guys have also talked about Hassan Piker, who is a more leftist or Twitch streamer who said [14:08] some offensive things about Israel or a bunch of other topics. And that's been part of this [14:13] question, too. And I don't know. How do you think about that? How do you how do we define [14:16] whether there are gates? Yeah. I mean, I think, look, there's sort of like is something somebody [14:21] says bad objectively. Right. So I think I think Tucker Carlson is a malign actor. I think he is a [14:28] liar. I think the reason that he has decided to take on Trump on this issue isn't because he's got [14:33] super sincerely held beliefs or maybe he does as part of his worldview. But also he was specifically [14:38] brought into the White House multiple times, I think, tried to talk Trump out of Iran. Trump [14:43] went against him. Now Tucker's going against him. They're all falling apart. But like Tucker is [14:49] not a good person, in my opinion. Like, I think he has been a malign actor on our politics. And I [14:55] think he does overall more damage. That doesn't mean that Tucker Carlson doesn't have an audience [15:00] and doesn't play a role in helping to sort of fracture that coalition. And so sometimes amplifying [15:05] his disagreements. He is a particular kind of messenger for people. But that's like a utility. [15:11] It's not, hey, let's have them in the coalition. And because there is no because they're not part of [15:17] they don't want to be part of the coalition. But also because there is no gatekeeping around the [15:21] coalition. Right. Like there's nobody who decides. I mean, the DNC can decide who speaks at a who gets a [15:28] platform. But like and that was sort of, you know, my argument with Tim around Piker was I felt like [15:35] Tim and Tim knows this. I don't want to like speak out of school because he's not here to [15:39] defend himself. But I felt like he was kind of downplaying some of the toxicity of the things [15:44] that Piker was saying. And more than that, I just cared about on our platform. I didn't want it to [15:49] sound like we didn't have a clear sense of who this guy is and what he is saying and what he talks [15:54] about. But like if that guy says, I like John Ossoff because I agree with his views on this. [16:00] Well, I'm like, OK, that's so I just this idea of people being gatekeepers on this stuff. But I do [16:07] think we should all as moral actors be gatekeepers about what is right and what is wrong. And so for [16:14] me, if my lines are liberal versus illiberal, then when people are using violent rhetoric, if they side [16:21] with terrorists or want to, you know, pump up terrorists or celebrate them in ways or [16:27] the Chinese communist government or Putin's annexation of Crimea, you know, or that, you [16:34] know, 9-11 happening was a what was it? America deserved 9-11. And people are like, these are out [16:41] of context. And then I go and watch the context and I'm like, they're not out of context. You just [16:46] you have an explanation for why you think these things to be true. OK, well, that's an academic debate [16:50] or an intellectual debate. We can have that debate. I'm just telling you, I think those [16:53] things are wrong. And I think is a moral line. I think that they're not good. But that doesn't [16:59] mean. But the idea that like podcasters can't talk to each other, people can't debate ideas [17:05] like you're not as a deep platforming because that was very like 2018 through 2020. Right. [17:09] It's like all the scolding of people who went on Joe Rogan or like scolding a barstool [17:13] sports or things like people can fleet the idea of saying, I think that person's ideas are [17:17] bad or I object to what that person saying. Like, I don't think stealing stuff from stores [17:23] is an act of righteous courage against corporations. Like, I think that is I think that's basically [17:29] you've decided, OK, well, we're just going to opt out of having a society and laws. And [17:34] to me, those are illiberal things. And I'm trying to part of the reason I objected to Donald [17:38] Trump was the illiberalism of Donald Trump, the violent rhetoric of Donald Trump. Now, some [17:44] piker is like a streamer who most of the country doesn't know about. Well, yeah, I mean, [17:48] it's not president, maybe president. Today's show is sponsored by strawberry.me. You don't [17:53] have to be actively unhappy at work to want something more. John, the most successful people [17:57] know this and they didn't figure it out alone. They have mentors, coaches and people guiding [18:01] them every step of the way. That's where strawberry.me career coaching comes in. Career coaching [18:06] through strawberry.me can help you get unstuck, uncover what you really want, identify obstacles [18:12] holding you back. Develop a step-by-step plan and turn your goals into reality. Boy, it'd [18:20] be nice to have a career coach, wouldn't it? Yeah, it would. Have you heard of the region [18:24] beta paradox? No. There's this idea that, like, basically, you know, people will stay [18:29] in a bad relationship or they'll stay in, like, a mediocre job. And ironically, things [18:33] would have to get worse for them to go seek something better. 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Maybe like, um, a less discussed, maybe more complicated, [20:45] more interesting case is Marjorie Taylor green. Yeah. Okay. Who has voted in some bad ways, [20:51] some said, some noxious things that's held some terrible views, but I gotta say, I listened to her. [20:57] I've been listening to her pretty closely for the better part of the year, talk about her opposition [21:02] to the war in Iran. Um, some of the things she said about the war in Venezuela, I think she's been [21:07] saying about Gaza and it just, it strikes me as totally sincere. And now maybe it's all a political [21:13] game that is setting up a run for the presidency in 2028, whatever we'll find out. But it was [21:20] interesting. I was talking to Ilhan Omar a couple of weeks ago about this, um, and whether, you know, [21:26] she had reached out to, um, uh, Marjorie Taylor green. And it was interesting to hear like Ilhan Omar, [21:32] who's taken more attacks, who's been treated more viciously by MTG and a lot of Republicans [21:38] showed such grace and was like, yeah, we should, you know, give her a hug, welcome her into the [21:42] coalition. I thought it was interesting to hear that from her, that she was thinking like that. [21:46] Yeah. And I think, look, I think grace is good. Um, I also, and I think, um, part of what's [21:53] happening though, is like they're finding common ground, right? Like they share their, their feelings [21:58] about Israel, I think are like both sincerely held and, uh, are maybe closer to each other [22:05] than Marjorie Taylor greens are too many in her own party. Right. Um, and, uh, and that might be true [22:11] of Ilhan Omar and some of the members of her own party. And so if they can, they find that common [22:16] ground. And so, but like, that might not be true if they didn't have like a, an issue that was binding [22:22] them together that they both care passionately about. And that is, um, I think that, uh, increased [22:29] skepticism of Israel is totally warranted in this moment. Uh, I think that increased skepticism of [22:35] the American government is quite warranted, uh, in this moment. Um, but like that wouldn't necessarily [22:41] bind me together with somebody that wouldn't be like the glue that holds us together. But I think [22:46] that we have and have had now for a while, a fracturing of the old way of politics orienting [22:56] the parties. And so as these issues shift and there's these huge changes in the way people are [23:02] thinking about different things, Israel being one of them, you're going to start to see sort of the [23:06] strange bedfellows. But politics is always like that, right? Politics finds strange bedfellows. And I [23:11] think that is fine. Again, this is where, is it really welcoming somebody into a coalition? [23:17] Because I think there's a difference. And this is when you say, I carry you, like we're together [23:25] in this. And this is why the question of do politicians go on like these more really incendiary [23:31] podcasters, people who are more for shock jock politics. It's like, okay, you've got two, [23:36] there's two sides of that coin. There's the side that's trying to reach audience. And so you need [23:40] to go every, do everything everywhere all at once. You gotta be going, finding audience, going into [23:44] uncomfortable places, having new conversations. You also have the judgment to know, [23:48] that for some people, you will end up owning some of their baggage and some of the worst [23:54] things that they said, if you're not willing to press them on it or engage in it, right? [23:57] Yeah, you gotta fire it out a little bit. [23:58] And so that is the thing with Marjorie Taylor Greene is like, I think that she got into Congress [24:06] and thought maybe it was going to be easier for her to just love Trump enough to get things [24:10] done. And then that didn't happen. And now maybe she's mad she didn't have enough influence [24:15] or whatever. She's looking for influence in other ways. I just don't know that I think [24:20] I'm not going to be like, boy, I really want to run, hang out with Marjorie Taylor Greene, [24:24] but JBL does. [24:25] I'd love to work out with her and maybe do a little CrossFit. No, it's just an interesting [24:28] conversation to sort of like thinking about how Democrats offer grace, whether the amount, [24:33] number of hoops we make you jump through to kind of like get to be treated as sincere versus [24:38] Trump who's like, oh, you like Trump? Oh, you called me Hitler back in the day? You're VP now, [24:42] JBL Vince. You know what I mean? Like, oh, Bobby Kennedy, you like Trump now? You hate these vaccines? [24:46] Fuck it. I hate vaccines, too. Come on in. But that's bad, right? We think it was a brittle [24:50] coalition. We ultimately don't think it's good as a objective matter that J.D. Vance specifically, [24:58] who did say Trump was Hitler, then was like, Mr. Trump, let me be all your things all for you. [25:03] I just love you. I hope you hear Kerbals. I will do what you need. Yeah. It's a joke. [25:08] But so I guess there's the part of me that is, again, every successful political coalition that has [25:16] ever existed has involved, like especially at really fractious times, has involved lots of [25:23] strange bedfellows, has involved lots of weird coalitions. So I think you want your coalition [25:27] to be as big as possible. And I don't think we can or like we can't like police who everybody [25:35] talks to. Like what you want out of your political leadership is you want somebody who's so good [25:39] up here. This is why what I was objecting to is the idea that you have to go on someone's podcast [25:44] to reach their audience. My point is a bigger point that's much beyond like a particular person. [25:49] It is John Ossoff is really good. He will make me and Hassan Piker be like, I support that guy. [25:58] Not because he comes to us to like reach our audience. I think we've gotten a little too [26:03] obsessed with the these micro conversations around Joe Rogan of the left or podcasters in [26:08] general. Like actually, it's about the candidates. It's the candidates. Can they show leadership? [26:14] And can we find ways to say, I can support that person? And can they appeal to a really large [26:19] coalition for a variety of reasons? And you want it to be because they're leaning into the thing like [26:25] the good things, the things that we're like, yes, I find goodness in this person. And a lot of people [26:29] tag into them, not, hey, I hate the same people you do. Right. Yes, for sure. We want unifying [26:34] messages, especially on our side. Let me just ask you a couple more things about Iran, because [26:38] I can imagine like a half dozen ways that this is bad for Trump politically. There's [26:44] gas prices are up. People are sick of wars in the Middle East generally. The price tag of the [26:50] war itself is huge, right? Like 30 billion, $40 billion already has been burned. Then there's [26:55] the fact that Trump lied and he said he would not go to war in the Middle East. What what are you [26:59] hearing, though, from voters who are expressing frustration about the war, especially the Trump [27:04] supporters you guys have talked to who've who've spoken out? Yeah, I would say the main thing is [27:10] people thought and this was always my take on it was Trump could get away with it if it was a really [27:17] short period of time, because if it was kind of an in and out like the first Iran bombing was 12 day [27:23] war, it was like it's like voters. But by the time it's happened, it's like it's you're already by it [27:28] with the voters and they're back to carrying just about costs. The longer this goes on, you've got two [27:35] things. You've got the impacts here at home, which is really around gas prices, but ultimately is [27:39] going to be all things getting more expensive, which on top of the tariffs. And this is the [27:43] thing about something like the Iran war. Voters know what caused it. Voters know that tariffs caused [27:48] the price increases and they know that the war in Iran is causing gas and gas price increases. [27:52] OK, when they know where it came from, that's the first like bucket of the problem. Then you get to [27:59] the second bucket of the problem, which is you said no more of this stuff. Like you want to go in [28:04] and do a smash and grab job like Venezuela or whatever. And like, I don't have to feel it. Fine. [28:09] You end up in a prolonged thing where now I'm listening to you be like, hey, Vietnam was 18 [28:14] years. What are you guys complaining about? Crazy comment, by the way. Yeah. Like and then they're [28:18] like, wait a minute, because this is where Trump is boxed in on this. And this is going back to [28:24] Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson. The thing about them is that they are creating there's [28:29] there's sort of there's a fracture in the Republican Party right now. There's the America [28:33] first wing. Right. Which is, no, we're not going to do wars because we're going to focus on people [28:38] here at home. Then there's the MAGA establishment and that is the Rubio and that is Trump. And [28:45] and so America firsters are like, you are not helping the American people. You are lying. You're [28:52] not doing what you said. And there is a real part of his coalition that feels betrayed because Trump. [28:57] And again, this is when I say everything is an economic issue. It's like we hired you to do one [29:01] thing, man, maybe two. Maybe we wanted you to also secure the border. But like it was about prices [29:07] and you're not doing it. And so literally everything you're doing that is not that makes us mad. [29:12] Yeah. You hear this from Nick. You hear this from very vocal people. Nick Fuentes, [29:16] Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, a lot of people. Again, a lot of flawed messengers there, [29:21] but they have audience. You mentioned Epstein a minute ago. So the Epstein file saga, it was long, [29:29] but it feels like a lifetime ago at this point. But how much does the mishandling of Epstein kind [29:35] of linger with voters who are angry with him and how does it manifest? [29:39] Yeah. So the main thing, again, is it goes to a lot of Trump's voters believed that the essential [29:46] promise of Trump. So I think there's the people who, these are the more casual voters who are just [29:51] like, Trump's a business guy. He's going to lower prices. But then there's the voters who are like, [29:55] no, Trump is going to smash the system. And all of the things you guys have been hiding from us, [30:00] the deep state, talk a lot about this in the book, the grammar of hidden knowledge, [30:04] the idea that there are big structural forces keeping information from regular people and meant [30:09] to keep people down. Trump was going to disrupt all that. Right. When you don't get the Epstein files, [30:15] and for whatever reason, it's funny, if you go back, Cash Patel promised the Epstein files, [30:19] Bondi promised the Epstein files. Trump didn't really. Trump barely. He was like, [30:23] yeah, we'll look at that. J.D. Vance promised the Epstein files. This was not what Trump wanted [30:28] to do. It was not. And Trump is mad now. Now we know why. That he is at the center of it. [30:32] But they feel like it disrupts the central promise of his, which is that I was going to be your guy [30:36] who's going to show you everything and be transparent. And so they just, and they basically [30:40] have started to be like, probably, yeah, he's in them. You know, and it's like, we know he's in them [30:44] now. And so I do think there's the people who have either decided that matters to them because [30:49] it is disrupted. So much of this is cumulative. It's not just the Epstein files. It's like, well, [30:54] I didn't get the Epstein files and I don't get lower prices. And people are basically like, [31:00] I guess I get a secure border and like bad stuff's happening to trans people. Like that's the only [31:05] thing. He's mean to my enemies. He's mean to my enemies. Like that is the only thing that they [31:08] feel like is going right for Trump and the rest of it, they're not getting. And people are like, [31:14] they'll general, they'll kind of reach for the trans stuff as something that they're glad about. [31:19] But like, that's not driving their votes. That's not the essential thing pushing most people. [31:23] Yeah. And the other interesting thing about Epstein that I was, I think you guys talked about this on [31:27] one of your focus group episodes was being into conspiracy theories used to be a thing that maybe [31:34] people were embarrassed about. Now they're like, oh, I'm a big conspiracy theory person. It's like, [31:39] they're proud. And I don't know, maybe they all just feel vindicated by the Epstein thing. Cause [31:43] like QAnon was just kind of aiming at the wrong target in hindsight, but it's interesting. [31:48] What did one guy say? He was like, how does an, how does a conspiracy theory go like turn into a [31:55] fact? And it's like, just give it time. Um, but what is amazing is it is you used to hear people [32:00] start their sentences with, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but, and you were always kind of like, [32:05] okay, well I'm waiting to hear the conspiracy. But now they're like, [32:09] I'm a big conspiracy theorist. And let me tell you what I think about Erica Kirk's, [32:13] like the body's buried in her basement. You know, I mean the Candace Owens of it all, [32:18] the extent to which the conspiracy, I mean, used to be like, go to the grocery store and there'd be [32:23] like, bat boy kills seven or whatever stuff we used to see. And America's always had a strain of, [32:29] you know, there's a second gunman on the grass and whatever it America, they like it. It's fun [32:34] now. And, and the way that people own it now shows you how much people are leaning into this [32:40] as a way of politics, as entertainment, um, the characters that they watch. And this is something [32:47] that the right does in some ways to its benefit and to its detriment, which is that they are [32:52] creating an ecosystem of like MAGA soap opera stars that people follow. Like that's what Will [32:56] Summer does. Oh, I know. Thank God for Will. Cause I wouldn't know what the hell was going on. Like [33:00] who's mad at who and who did what in the ballroom at TPUSA event? Anyway. Yeah. And there's a lot of [33:05] like minor celebrities. I mean, Will Summer's constantly saying like, wow, so-and-so. And I'm [33:10] like, I'm sorry, who is that? Who's like, you know, the girl who threw up in the plant at the [33:15] Mar-a-Lago. And I'm like, I don't know this story. Um, and so the conspiracy stuff, uh, is, [33:22] and, and, and again, you hear it with people saying, well, I trust the plan. You know, I, [33:26] whatever Trump's doing, I trust the plan. I mean, it's sort of like, it's, it's all the way from deep [33:31] QAnon stuff that can be pernicious and kind of dangerous and lead somebody to show up at a pizza [33:36] shop with a gun all the way over to Bravo doesn't have a new series now. So I'm like really into what's [33:42] happening with Erica. That's so true. And the other thing, I mean, look, I, I, having worked [33:47] in government, I've just found that like big government conspiracies are unlikely because [33:51] when you have a bunch of people read into something, the odds of it remaining a secret [33:56] are very low. And the government is, tends to be incompetent at scale. I was just going to say, [34:00] like, you think the government can't figure out how to solve a bunch of these problems, [34:04] but you think they know how to cover up the moon landing. Yeah, exactly. They fake that stuff. [34:09] But you can totally see the appeal of it, which is like simple answers to why the world can feel [34:16] chaotic and scary and why bad things happen to good people. Right. Like, oh, it's because of that. [34:21] This is why, you know, I tend to still be, despite all of the chaos we see, really like firmly pro [34:30] American voter, because in some ways they are being poisoned every day. And they're being lied to [34:37] by their government every single day. Um, I think that whether it's Epstein, whether it's the way [34:43] that Trump has talked about war in Iran, like we are both being lied to. And the only way we're [34:48] getting information is on his like janky social media feed. And like, that's how things are coming [34:52] is privately owned. Like, I, I have a hard time blaming the American people who for a long time [34:58] are like, but, but he's the president. He certainly wouldn't lie about all of this stuff or, [35:02] and I just, um, and they're trying to parse this new information, which is a nightmare. Um, [35:10] and, and there's conflict merchants everywhere, telling them who to hate and how to hate and, [35:14] you know, ginning people off. And so I just, I feel like, um, I feel like people when I, [35:21] that's why I like the focus groups. They're actually much nicer in person than actually the [35:24] way when people fight with you on the internet and they're just like screaming things at you. Um, [35:29] you know, people in the groups, they're really wrestling with stuff. They're just coming away [35:33] with some wild conclusions. Um, but you can see how they get there. If you listen to them based [35:38] on the world that we live in. Totally. And the algorithms that they're getting forced into [35:41] Pod Save America is brought to you by Helix. Sleep is so important. So important. I just saw some [35:46] study that if, um, you continually get, uh, six hours, less than six hours of sleep a night, [35:53] and, uh, that happens for, um, continuously for like more than a week, then it is almost like [36:01] you are, um, you have the same sort of mental decline as if you, uh, stayed up for 48 hours [36:06] straight. Oof. That's how important it is to get seven, at least seven hours of sleep as an adult, [36:12] as an adult. I like truly, like no matter what you do, the last step is like you can do everything [36:17] right and you're not getting sleep. It's the hardest thing to do. It is. Yep. Yep. It's the hardest [36:21] thing to do it, but you know, what makes it easier? Helix. Helix mattresses. That's why [36:24] we love Helix mattresses here. We all have them in our homes and, um, they're great. 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That's 20% off at [38:26] fastgrowingtrees.com with code crooked. Terms and conditions may apply. A couple quick issue things [38:31] I'm just wondering if you're hearing about. Look, I'm skeptical that a midterm is going to be one [38:35] on like policy per se, but there are some policy areas that are popping. First of all, there's AI. [38:41] So there's some districts, Politico had a good write up on this the other day where fights over [38:46] AI data centers are really, they're big deals in certain communities that don't want them there [38:53] or do want them there. And then there's also just sort of like anger from the left and the right [38:56] at big tech, at the tech oligarchs. And it's like, you, it's the kind of thing where you could listen, [39:02] I could read you a sentence and it could be Bernie Sanders or it could be Steve Bannon. Right. [39:06] And it's like verbatim, the same language. How much are you hearing about AI, big tech, [39:12] like in your groups? So tons of AI, not nearly enough about big tech. And let me, so I was [39:19] actually, um, when I was doing the focus groups specifically on the races for Mikey Shearal, [39:24] Abigail Spanberger in both those races, uh, the AI data centers were a huge issue. It came up all the [39:31] time because people know how much water they're using. Right. They know that they're raising their [39:35] energy prices. Again, it's an economic issue for them. They're like, they're like, Hey, it's getting [39:39] more expensive for me. And both of them made them parts of their campaigns. Like they were addressing [39:44] it because it's clearly something they're hearing from voters all the time. And this is, but on the [39:49] other thing, on the tech oligarchs, and this is, I also talk about this in the book and I need you to [39:54] do me a favor. I'm in. Okay. Go tell all your democratic friends that they keep doing this thing where [40:00] they're like big corporations, they're the bad guys. I'm like, can you guys just like, like, [40:06] okay, I'm not here to talk you out of this. Don't say, could you please just really focus [40:10] on the big tech oligarchs? Sure. Because they are both, uh, becoming outrageously wealthy [40:15] at the expense of the health, both mental and physical of the American people. They are taking [40:22] two of our dominant human emotions, fear and anger, and they are algorithmically for their own profit [40:28] and to keep us on those things. They are making us want to hate each other. They are the poisoners [40:33] in many cases, or they're the platforms that deliver the poison and try and keep you there. [40:39] And like Elon Musk should be an enemy that we name. Yeah. Peter Thiel should be an enemy that we [40:46] name. And you know what? It's not just that these, these guys walked in to help Trump because they [40:51] knew he doesn't care about people. He doesn't care about their health and wellbeing. And he was going [40:56] to help them be profitable. He's going to let them raid our data. Like these, we are not talking [41:00] enough about the tech oligarchs as a specific element of the problem. You just say big, nameless, [41:06] faceless corporation. Fine. You know what? Most Americans work for corporations. And so [41:10] the tech oligarchs though, they are bleeding us. And, and, and look, I think there's lots of promise [41:17] for AI too. And there's lots of downsides. I'm not just like reflexively against it, but we do need [41:23] to sort of balance our humanity here. And I think that, um, these guys are not, they, they, there's [41:30] a reason Elon Musk talks about immigration all the time. He wants to make sure that we think immigrants [41:36] are the problem and not the tech oligarchs. Like they are playing a distraction game. And I do think [41:41] people need to. So if you could just tell your friends who we're talking about, uh, the big thing. [41:46] Hey, listen up. Well, would you include Mark Zuckerberg? What about Google? Tim Cook over at Apple? I mean, [41:52] I, I look, I fundamentally agree with you. Um, I think that the more specificity in messaging, [41:58] the better for a whole host of reasons, but in part just, it's easier to like visualize the enemy [42:02] when you name it. Um, I'm with you though. Uh, my frustration with the AI industry generally is like [42:10] we watched all these tech barons create social media and tell us it was going to bring the world [42:15] together and fix all our problems. And it created a massive number of problems. And then you have a bunch [42:19] of the same people kind of running it back and now doing the AI thing. And it's, it goes from Elon to [42:25] Mark Zuckerberg over at, at, uh, Facebook. And then Sam Altman, who is, you know, running Y Combinator [42:31] for a long time and incubating a lot of these companies. And it just seems like there's no [42:35] lessons learned. In fact, they, they care even less about being perceived as good guys. They're just [42:40] like rapacious capitalists who want it all. Okay. And so as somebody who doesn't necessarily [42:45] discount people just cause of rapacious capitalism, uh, I would say, uh, you know, [42:50] my favorite description of the board, cause people are like, you're the capitalist wing of Antifa. [42:56] So good. Um, but I, I think that for me, a lot of it is, um, and that's why, look, there are, [43:04] I believe in innovation and I believe in trying to solve big intractable problems. And I think [43:09] technology can be a big part of that. What you do want is for it to not live in a place of nihilism. [43:16] Like you want, these guys are becoming extraordinarily powerful, extraordinarily [43:20] powerful in our politics in ways. I mean, and this is why I think the specificity of an Elon Musk, [43:26] like Elon Musk is somebody who I think you can look at and say, this person is doing an enormous [43:31] amount of damage and doing it on purpose. I don't think every tech oligarch is like that. And I think [43:36] that you, you know, we should probably, uh, be careful about not sort of lumping in everybody [43:40] together because I think there are people who are like, actually there are responsible ways to do [43:45] this. And like, what are the ways that you could regulate this? And, um, but those people are [43:49] becoming fewer and further between. And one of the reasons that so many people capitulated to Trump, [43:54] including Zuckerberg, including, um, Washington post, uh, Bezos, um, Elon, whatever is cause they [44:02] were like, Oh, this guy will just do what we want. And I'm not here for the social good. I'm here to get [44:06] what I want. And look again, it doesn't all have to be social good, but it does have to be with like, [44:12] I don't know, some sense of responsibility to, uh, the health of the country. And Elon is happy, [44:19] happy to become a trillionaire at the expense of us destroying each other. [44:24] Absolutely. Destroying anything in his way. Um, Maha, uh, the RFK junior, obviously he like exploded [44:32] into the consciousness, into popularity by demagoguing vaccines, primarily the COVID pandemic [44:38] supercharged, everything that he was doing. But there was a part of Maha that is totally reasonable, [44:43] right? It's like healthier foods, uh, less processed foods, fewer chemicals in what we're eating, [44:49] you know, like thinking more about like what we're feeding kids. Like all of that is eminently [44:54] reasonable. And I have tons of friends, I'm sure you do too, who were like Maha curious and were [45:00] like, well, what's, what, why are you critical of this RFK guy? Like what is, what's wrong with [45:04] any of this? Right. It becomes a complicated conversation. Um, but it was always obvious [45:08] that as a political matter and as a political coalition, there was going to be tension between [45:13] sincere Maha and Trump's pro corporation deregulation agenda, getting rid of the EPA, [45:22] things like that. And you saw this explode recently where, um, they gave this sweetheart legal deal to [45:28] the folks who make Roundup, which is this big weed killer that a lot of Maha folks absolutely hate [45:32] because I think it's like the cancer. Um, what are you hearing anything about Maha these days? Like, [45:37] is there anger, um, or opportunity for Democrats? I mean, I heard a lot about Maha going into the [45:44] election. Um, I mean the number of, it's not just women, but it was a lot of women who were like, [45:49] I want red dyes out of food. Like they had these very specific issues, um, that I was like, and I'm [45:58] a parent, uh, but I, I was like, I haven't been following. I haven't thought about the red dye either. [46:02] But look, there are a bunch of things. I don't know if you feel this way. There are a bunch of things [46:06] as you become a parent that are happening with kids. You're like, I don't know. It wasn't like [46:10] this before. Nobody had, there weren't all these nut allergies, right? Or like there wasn't, you [46:14] didn't know tons of kids who are autistic or like, there's like all these things that feel new, [46:19] things that feel new. Right. And so you're like, where is this coming from? Why is this happening? [46:23] And I think for, for, um, parents who have autistic children who feel like they don't know exactly why, [46:29] um, there's a lot of people who are like, okay, well maybe he's going to get to the bottom of some of [46:33] this. And actually I think it's, I'm not sure if I think it's less about what you just outlined. [46:38] It's a little bit more like he's basically a crank, uh, who has now, um, you know, he's like, well, [46:47] we, we're getting rid of vaccines everywhere and, uh, we're cutting all this medical research. [46:52] And, um, I, what I hear about Maha when I do hear about it is like, oh, I was excited for RFK, [46:59] but like, they haven't really gotten anywhere on like X, Y, or Z, whatever the bespoke issue was [47:04] that they were interested in doing it. And in fact, there was a spate of time when they came out, [47:09] um, there was a lot of people who were upset about the idea of like, it was Tylenol causing [47:16] autism in part because mothers felt like they were being blamed. Like the idea that they took Tylenol. [47:23] This is the only thing you can take when you're pregnant for pain relief. And to suddenly [47:26] take that away from women and then say, and by the way, you're at fault if your children [47:31] has a medical problem because you took that, that is so cruel. And if you don't think that [47:36] those women haven't figured out how to read 11 peer reviewed studies on these things, like they [47:40] have. And so I think that there was, there was some real frustration about that. Now it doesn't [47:46] come up as much, I think in part, because I actually think that the amount of damage being done, [47:51] especially on the, did you, I don't know if you saw this the other day, but they have found an [47:56] MMRA vaccine that is showing tremendous signs of, uh, adding longevity to the lives of people [48:03] with pancreatic cancer, extraordinary development, extraordinary medical breakthrough. You think [48:08] we've been spending more money on MRNA vaccines these days or not? Um, and so like, and I, and I [48:14] think what's unfortunate is that unlike Trump's tariffs and unlike the war in Iran, Americans feel [48:21] acute pain from those things. The cutting of scientific research, the gutting of those things, it's the kind [48:26] of thing that takes a decade to show up and it's also in discoveries not made and therefore much [48:31] harder to figure out. Um, and so I, you don't hear as much of that as directly, although it's there, [48:38] but it's much more focused on prices. But I, I just know that we are paying, uh, we're paying a lot [48:46] and it's just, we're gonna, we're gonna learn about it down the road. [48:48] Yeah. Bills come and do later. Um, I have a couple more things and I'll get the hell out of your office. [48:51] So we've been talking about the midterms. Um, Gallup just released some new polling this week [48:57] about approval of Congress. They just, they asked people like, do you approve or disapprove of [49:01] Congress? The institution, 10% approve. Yeah. 86% disapprove. Congrats guys. You did it. You did it. [49:07] The all time low is 9%. The partisan breakdown was 20% approval from Republicans, 11% from [49:14] independents, 3% from Democrats, which is not surprising. It's a Republican Congress. Um, now [49:19] for contact, Congress's approval rating has been mostly underwater since 1974. Uh, the average is [49:24] 28% approve, 65% disapprove, which is bad, but you know, 10% is terrible. Does that help Democrats [49:33] that people like hate the institution and we maybe have more challengers? How do you think about [49:38] that? Uh, yeah, Congress is funny because it's weird to get to such a low approval rating when you're [49:45] not doing anything. Literally nothing. Like, and so I'm actually, I'm like, people are mad that they're [49:50] not doing anything. And especially on the democratic side, here's what I do know. I know that democratic [49:54] voters are so frustrated with their leadership. I mean, they are mad. They're like down with the [50:00] gerontocracy and if Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer don't start going toe to toe with Trump and they [50:05] are not satisfied by the answer of we're shut out from political power. They're like, I don't know. [50:10] You're up there. Can you go do something? Like they want to see reflected back to them. This, I, I keep, [50:15] uh, kind of rejecting this fight that we have on Twitter about does the democratic party need to be [50:20] more moderate? Does it need to be more progressive? Like all the voters really want is for it to be more [50:26] aggressive. They could sort of take or leave which side of the ideological spectrum you're on. As long [50:31] as you are going in there and reflecting the anger and upsetness that they feel at what Trump is doing [50:36] and when you're not doing that, they are mad, which is, I think, where you're getting sort of those [50:40] democratic numbers. Um, and I think, look, so much of this is just, ah, you gave me a body of the [50:49] government and I think things are going terribly in the country. And so I want to tell you that I think [50:54] they're doing a terrible job because the country feels bad. So I don't know that I, and interest [50:58] in terms of how it affects the midterms, people blame the party in power. I mean, this is the only [51:03] reason that I think Democrats can't pick up the kind of seats that they picked up in 2018 is because [51:09] there's not enough seats available. Like there's just, because it's so close right now, they can't [51:14] pick up 40 seats, but like they can certainly take control. To win 40 seats, we'd have to be winning [51:18] like Trump plus 12 districts. Yeah. And I think like, look, you can get a wave where you are picking [51:25] up Trump plus seven districts, Trump plus eight. I mean, that wave would have to be so big, but you [51:29] know what? I'm not discounting it in part because look, uh, Democrats are extraordinarily motivated [51:38] and Republicans are sucking wind. Yes. And that's where the Tucker stuff, I think that enthusiasm [51:44] pressing that MAGA base. Like, I love that. Well, one, one, one counterpoint to this, the New York [51:49] Times reported, uh, that Republicans have a $600 million advantage in terms of fundraising of like [51:54] Republican groups over Democratic ones. How much does that worry you? Because I think it's easy after [51:58] 2024 to be like, we pissed away a billion dollars, didn't move the vote a goddamn point. Yeah. Who cares [52:03] anymore? But in midterms, it's a bit of a different story often. So, okay. It doesn't worry me [52:10] that much, uh, in the sense that the voters are given to the candidates, the, like the Democratic [52:16] candidates like Tallarico and Cooper and, uh, Mary Patola, like they're putting up huge numbers, [52:23] like way over their Republican counterparts. And so there's an asymmetry that is on either side where [52:30] Democrat, the actual Democratic candidates are out raising their Republican counterparts. [52:34] Whereas the Republican infrastructure and the committees are out raising their Democratic [52:39] counterparts. And the PACs. And so, and the PACs, right? So there's like tons of the big money [52:43] coming in. Whereas I think a lot of the big money on the left is, yeah, feeling burned and scared. [52:50] People don't want to put their names on FEC reports because Trump will go after them. Like [52:54] that is a real thing, um, that is happening, which, and that's why, look, I don't know how much money is [53:00] going into C4s or stuff, but like that money might be evening out somewhere. But, uh, there is a lot of [53:06] chilling of civic participation via donation dollars because people are afraid of showing up on Donald [53:13] Trump's radar. Yeah. And the DOJ is harsh. So it worries me from that, it worries me from that [53:17] point of view. And then it worries me, I think from, um, I don't want to just like, you know, [53:22] crap on Ken Martin, but I do think that the DNC could stand to, um, up its, up its game a little [53:29] bit. Yeah. Um, I, I've actually, we've been in touch with Ken's team. We're hoping to get him on [53:33] the show sometime next week to talk about this and the fundraising and some of the concerns, [53:36] because it is, um, it's a challenging atmosphere. I'm sure it is an absolute slog for him to try to [53:42] rebuild that place and clear the decks after 2024. Um, but yeah, I'm, I'm anxious like you are. And [53:48] also, but you're right. The, the candidate fundraising is better on the democratic side. [53:52] And that's also important because you get more efficient ad rates as a elected official than you [53:57] do as a party committee or a PAC. So that's something. Yeah. And for people who are like, [54:01] oh, get money out of politics and stuff. I totally, I hear, I hear you, but, but, but as [54:06] right now, right, when you have only so many metrics for things like money, especially to [54:11] candidates is a good metric for enthusiasm. And so the idea that these democratic candidates [54:15] are outperforming on the money side is just a good metric for, I think, enthusiasm, especially [54:20] in a midterm and not a presidential. Yes, totally agree. [54:23] Pod Save America is brought to you by the Working Forest Initiative. 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The [55:08] coalition of working forest professionals does more than manage land. They cultivate a resilient, [55:12] sustainable legacy. By championing these practices today, the WFI ensures America's forests remain a vibrant [55:18] resource for our economy and a vital sanctuary for our environment for generations to come. [55:23] Last question. Let's just end with some maybe irresponsible, definitely premature speculation about [55:28] 2028. On the Republican side, you have a great piece in The Atlantic this week about how groups are the focus groups, [55:35] Trump voters, are talking more and more about Marco Rubio, the archivist. I think that's his only job. [55:40] Um, and less about J.D. Vance. Yeah. Tell us more about that. So, uh, this is Marco Rubio is maybe the first [55:48] candidate I've seen where like a meme seems to be springing to life. Yes. And so the meme of Marco Rubio in the chair like [55:55] this with the new job, whatever the job is, like, is he the new coach of the Panthers? Right. Like every, every garbage [56:02] job that you can get, it actually, it is, it is a, it's a funny joke, but what it is showing people or I think what people are [56:08] taking away from that is like, there is one person in this administration who's not a total clown. Right. [56:13] Like, and so you got to give him all the jobs because he's the only actual serious person. Right. [56:18] And then that's one piece of it. And then another piece is they're kind of looking around and it's like, [56:23] J.D. Vance, who people still will say is the heir apparent and like, okay, yeah, you know, like J.D. [56:31] on the magazine, like, I don't really feel it. He's, he is for me and focus groups now having done this [56:36] long enough to see different candidates rise and fall. He's got total Ron DeSantis vibes from [56:42] Republican voters. The longer they look at him, the more they're like, uh, and, and it's like, [56:49] they want to like him or they want to do it, but like, he's not lighting anybody up and he's getting [56:53] himself in a sour spot with those two groups I'm talking about that he thought he was going to be [56:57] able to stand over both of them and bring them together. And instead he's sitting in the bad spot [57:02] where Tucker's got this part Marshall over here and, and Rubio is starting to Marshall [57:06] the mega establishment over here. Um, and so that is just interesting to me. It also doesn't help [57:12] that Donald Trump walks around his, you know, the white house being like, who do you like better? [57:16] J.D. or Marco, you know, every donor at Margalago is getting asked who he likes better, Rubio or Vance. [57:21] Also like, look, Rubio, I think gets a lot of credit from the base on Venezuela operation [57:26] because he's seen his owning that one. Uh, when it comes to Iran, uh, they started a war [57:32] and Marco Rubio has disappeared. He went to the UFC fight. Yeah. Yeah. J.D. Vance went over [57:38] the fucking Pakistan. J.D. Vance like sits on the tarmac for 21 hours and Pakistan gets humiliated, [57:43] flies home. J.D. and Marco goes to, um, goes to a, uh, a UFC fight, but also Marco Rubio [57:49] like did one press conference where he went up on Capitol Hill and he was like, oh yeah, [57:52] we were invaded. Cause, uh, the Israel, uh, the lobby made us do it. And then he walked away [57:56] and created this huge disaster for everyone involved. And then it's not said a word since [58:00] he's just divorced himself from this problem. Probably smart politically, probably smart [58:04] politically. I think, and this is, um, so look, I think that those two are an interesting contrast [58:09] to me. And I just, I think for me, one of the reasons I'm so interested in hearing the strange [58:13] new respect from Trump voters in the focus groups is I think I had long thought that people from the [58:19] pre Trump era, Republicans from the pre Trump era were a non-starter for voters. But what's interesting [58:26] is that especially for younger voters, they don't even know Marco Rubio, the Marco Rubio that I was [58:32] like, oh, this young man, I like him. Right. We'll see what he does. The guy who drank the water. [58:35] Yeah. That's why I think, you know, he was like, he was going to be the new person he led, uh, on, [58:40] on immigration reform or whatever. Time magazine, right? It was like the future. [58:44] Nobody thinks that like these guys don't know that guy. They just know the guy who's been in the tank for [58:48] Trump. And so they're sort of meeting him for the first time, people who are like 30 and below. [58:53] And then for a lot of the other people, there's he's been enough of a lap dog for Trump and [58:57] transformed himself enough that like I obviously, uh, would never vote for him in a million years [59:03] ever. Uh, but a lot of Trump voters might like they wouldn't Nikki Haley, but he's transformed [59:09] himself enough. So that, that was interesting to me. I will just say on the Republican side, [59:14] I think this is another reason I don't give Tucker sort of the genuine, uh, thing is like, I do [59:19] think truck Tucker's thinking about running for president. I think, look, I was talking to someone [59:23] yesterday who's sort of in that world. I asked this question and he thought, no, because it's [59:26] like a lot of work and also you have to have a genuine thick skin and Tucker doesn't seem like [59:32] he's someone who's very putilistic, but I look, I, I, yeah, I've long wondered if he, [59:36] he could jump into a primary and do very well on the Republican side. [59:40] He would immediately have a base of support. [59:42] Yeah. Yeah. It would be interesting. The last question, um, on the Democratic side, [59:47] is anyone making your heart flutter? Yeah. So I already mentioned [59:50] Ossoff and his communication side. Look, I, I tend to be, um, I, I, I, I'm from Pennsylvania. [59:57] People get mad. They're like, no one will ever nominate Josh Shapiro. But like, if you follow [1:00:01] Pennsylvania politics closely, he is beloved in Pennsylvania. Um, there's just not that many [1:00:07] Democrats who have, you know, a 60% approval rating. He's going to beat his democratic [1:00:12] challenger. And people are like, I'm sorry, his, uh, his Republican challenger. Everybody's like, [1:00:16] I'm sorry. Yeah. Who's he even running against? Like, uh, it's a woman. I'm forgetting her name [1:00:20] right now, but like, it's a non-starter. It's not going anywhere. No, he's going to destroy her. [1:00:24] Because he crushed Mastriano too. That's right. Um, and she's a, well, there's also part of the [1:00:29] reason is there's like a, now there's like a weird Mastriano write-in thing that people are doing. [1:00:34] Yeah. It doesn't matter anyway. But Pete, John Ossoff, um, Shapiro, because he's successful in the [1:00:40] biggest swing state, like all three of them are kind of in my, uh, zone for people. But like, [1:00:46] here's the main reason. And, and actually I'm not going to put Josh Shapiro in this. He's kind [1:00:50] of like a personal, I, I like him. Um, but I recognize that the democratic base seems to have [1:00:56] some particular feelings about him. Uh, it's a matter of how, how salient Gaza is probably, [1:01:01] right? One of my pet theory. Yes. Well, that is why, what people don't like about him. [1:01:06] Stacy Garrity, by the way, Stacy Garrity. Good job. Way to effort that. Thank you. [1:01:10] Um, I do have a pet theory that the way that Democrats deal with what is becoming like a, [1:01:16] I'm not even sure it's as much of a wedge issue because democratic voters now are pretty, I mean, [1:01:21] I can't tell you how many focus groups I do with Dems, um, in these Dem primaries, [1:01:25] they all know who APAC is giving money to. It's not just sort of track APAC. Like people are locked [1:01:29] in on this issue. They are mad at Israel. It is shifting quickly among democratic and independent [1:01:35] voters. Um, and so I do think, I think that the, one of the ways that Democrats could handle this [1:01:41] is by having a Jewish candidate who is deeply critical of Israel. J.B. Pritzker fits that bill, [1:01:47] Ossoff fits that bill, and Shapiro fits that bill. Rahm erasure? Rahm Emanuel erasure? I don't mean to [1:01:52] erase Rahm. I think Rahm's gonna, I think Rahm's gonna inject some interesting energy into [1:01:56] the primary. A lot of energy. I do not think that's where voters are going. Um, but, uh, yeah, [1:02:03] and I just think people are looking for a brand new, like not, not brand, brand new, but like [1:02:08] someplace we haven't trod before. They're not a long history. Um, and so, uh, but the thing is, [1:02:15] I'll just say Pete does make my heart go pitter patter because Pete does the thing that I'm desperate [1:02:21] for Democrats to do, which is like, it's not just going on podcasts. And I saw you guys reacting to his [1:02:27] thing. And I did not think you were nice enough to him. That's dude. The, the, the Pete hive, [1:02:31] boy, if you are like, all I said about Pete was, I think he's the best, one of the best [1:02:36] communicators out there. He's unbelievably good. You could send him anywhere. Fox news, [1:02:40] conservatives, all in pockets, anyone who'll dominate CNBC crushed Joe Kernan. But all I said [1:02:45] was, I thought that is actually kind of a different skill than being able to go into every community [1:02:51] and get votes in every community. Because as we've seen his numbers with black voters, for example, [1:02:55] are like very, very low. And he really needs to work on that. That was, it was an observation [1:02:59] about data. Uh, people take that so personally. Yeah. Well, I think part of it is that, um, [1:03:05] Pete, part of the reason that they take it personally is Pete inspires love and people [1:03:09] like they really do. And, and he does that kind of for me, uh, where I think that he is, [1:03:15] he's the, this idea of like, I'm going to go to Oklahoma and I'm going to talk to people there. [1:03:18] I think that's great by the way. And the thing is, is that while we tend to get in these [1:03:22] Twitter arguments about, do you go on this podcast or this streamer? He's like, oh, [1:03:26] I'm going to actually go sit with people because that's actually the real thing. The rest of this [1:03:30] stuff over here is a sideshow to the real voters. And so I'm, because I'm obsessed with listening to [1:03:36] voters, I'm obsessed with candidates who care about engaging with voters. This was like young [1:03:41] Joe Biden with the arm around people and like being around Trump with his stupid rallies, but like [1:03:47] creating good dance party vibes, like the Democrat who was going to win, who I do think is going to [1:03:52] be somebody who manages to not tip over into saccharine or treacle, but does have a very clear [1:03:58] sense of vision, hope, future, how we bring, come back together as a country. I do think people are [1:04:04] hungry for that. I think he has it. Um, and so, and Ossoff has just been like, as a, I think messaging [1:04:11] matters more now than ever. Uh, and I think he is doing it. And every time I see him give a speech, [1:04:16] I kind of like do a lap in the room with my hands. Yes. Yeah. It's hard not to just turn [1:04:21] into a cheerleader for that. If he wins that Georgia Senate election, which, you know, knock on [1:04:25] wood, uh, he will be vaulted into, you know, top, top candidates. I'll be pushing him. Uh, Sarah [1:04:32] Longwell, thank you so much for doing this. Fascinating to talk to you. Uh, I really appreciate [1:04:37] it. Yeah. Thanks Tommy. Good to see you too. I'll put gas in your car next time.