Top 8 Trump GOP voter groups still holding strong

[0:00] Hey there, I'm Harry Enten [0:01] and today we're counting down the top eight groups [0:03] that are still holding strong for Trump's GOP [0:05] and we're gonna do so using pure data, baby. [0:08] And at the end, we're gonna have [0:09] a little bit of bonus for you. [0:11] But without further ado, [0:12] let's start off with group number eight. [0:13] We are talking about white evangelicals. [0:16] Of course, they are a very important part [0:18] of the GOP coalition and take a look at their choice [0:20] for the election back in October of 2024 [0:23] when it was Harris versus Trump. [0:24] Trump is getting 71% of their vote [0:26] according to a Fox News poll back in October of 2024. [0:30] And look at where we are now. [0:31] We're talking about the 2026 race for Congress. [0:34] Republicans getting a very similar share. [0:36] We're talking about 69% of the vote among white evangelicals. [0:40] So very similar to what we saw back in 2024. [0:43] But it doesn't just end there, baby. [0:46] What we're talking about as well, [0:47] when we're talking about the core GOP groups, [0:49] how about those who self-identify as Republicans, baby? [0:52] Look at this, I mean, this, this is support. [0:55] This is what we're talking about. [0:57] We're talking about 92%. [0:59] That is the share of the vote that House Republicans [1:02] are getting right now among GOP voters. [1:05] That's basically the same, baby. [1:07] That's basically the same as Trump was getting [1:09] back in October of 2024 when he was getting 94%. [1:12] This is well within the margin of error. [1:15] The bottom line is this, for all that talk, [1:17] all that talk about Republicans abandoning Trump [1:21] and abandoning the GOP, it simply put does not hold [1:25] when you match up the GOP's running for the House [1:28] against the Democrats running for the House of Representatives. [1:31] Now, another group that I just think is so interesting [1:34] because this is a group that is actually going Democratic. [1:37] But what we saw was Democrats did very poorly, [1:40] very poorly, at least historically speaking, [1:42] among black voters back in 2024. [1:45] Kamala Harris was leading amongst them in October of 2024 [1:48] by 59 points, and guess what? [1:51] Although Democrats are winning them, [1:52] but it's only by a slightly wider margin, [1:55] only a slightly wider margin, 62 points, [1:58] compared to Kamala Harris back in October of 2024. [2:01] So what we're essentially seeing is Democrats [2:03] did historically poorly for the worst in a generation [2:06] among black voters back in 2024, [2:08] and it does not seem like they're recovering [2:10] all that much ground. [2:12] So this is the sixth group that we're looking at. [2:14] What about group number five? [2:16] I feel like KCK's, and coming in at number five, [2:19] what are we talking about? [2:20] How about white women? [2:21] This is a very key group. [2:24] This is a swing vote. [2:26] This is a swing vote. [2:27] And take a look at the choice for the election [2:28] among white women. [2:29] In October of 2024, Trump was getting 51% of that vote. [2:34] Look at this, white women basically are staying the same. [2:38] There hasn't been much of a shift at this point [2:40] in terms of the vote for Congress. [2:41] Look at this, House Republicans getting 49% of that vote. [2:45] Again, this is well within the margin of error. [2:48] Very little movement. [2:49] When you can count it on one hand, [2:51] you know it's little movement. [2:52] One, two, maybe the slightest bit towards the Dems, [2:55] but Republicans still very much in the game [2:58] with white women who, of course, [2:59] are such an important part of the electorate. [3:01] So this is group number five. [3:03] What about group number four, all right? [3:05] How about voters making above $50,000 income? [3:09] This is a very important group in the electorate. [3:11] This is the majority of voters in the electorate. [3:14] Take a look here. [3:16] You thought two points was a lot of movement? [3:18] How about one point in terms of movement? [3:20] Back in October of 2024, [3:22] Donald Trump was getting 51% of that vote. [3:24] Today, look at this, [3:26] House Republicans basically the same, basically the same. [3:29] We're talking about 50%. [3:31] And of course, income and class has become [3:34] such a big dividing line in our politics these days. [3:37] And when you see Republicans holding strong with this group, [3:41] those making above $50,000 in income, [3:43] and they of course make up the vast majority of voters, [3:46] this is why Republicans are still very much in the game [3:49] when it comes to the congressional elections come 2026. [3:53] Now, this is group number five. [3:55] What about group number four? [3:57] Well, when we're talking about the majority of voters, [3:59] you know, for all of the talk, [4:01] oftentimes we break it down. [4:02] We look at black voters, we look at Hispanic voters, [4:04] but white voters still make up the clear majority [4:07] of voters in the electorate. [4:09] And what we see here is, [4:10] Republicans are winning among white voters. [4:12] They're winning among white voters. [4:14] Well, they're winning by 11 points [4:15] when it comes to the 2026 race for Congress. [4:17] Now, Trump won them by 15, [4:19] or was leading amongst them by 15 back in 2024, [4:23] but 11, 15, this is the type of movement [4:27] that is really sort of emblematic of what we're seeing. [4:29] Maybe Democrats doing slightly better, slightly better, [4:33] but overall, Republicans are more than holding their own [4:37] when it comes to a group that makes it [4:39] the clear majority of voters. [4:41] Okay, this is group number three. [4:43] Well, let's enter into group number two. [4:46] Group number two, this is so important. [4:48] What about age? [4:49] What about age? [4:50] Older voters, you know, all the time we talk, [4:52] oh, the youth, ooh, la, la, la, la, la. [4:55] We all care about what's new and fresh, [4:58] but what's been there for a while is a stable voting block. [5:01] Older voters are what ultimately, [5:04] or almost ultimately, always determine elections. [5:07] So take a look at those among age 45 and older. [5:10] In November of 2024, what did we see? [5:13] We saw Trump winning that vote by six points. [5:16] Look at where we are now. [5:17] Republicans are still winning this huge chunk of voters. [5:21] And of course, in midterm elections, [5:24] older voters actually make up an even larger percentage [5:27] of the electorate than they do in presidential elections. [5:29] And what we see here is Republicans ahead by three points. [5:34] Again, this is well within any margin of error, [5:37] Republicans holding strong, holding their own [5:41] amongst a group of voters that will make up [5:43] the clear majority of voters come November. [5:47] But without further ado, [5:49] we've counted down eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two, [5:54] and coming in at number one, what about seniors? [5:57] Choice among seniors. [5:59] Look at this, in October of 2024, [6:01] Donald Trump was getting 49% of the senior vote. [6:04] That is age 65 and older. [6:06] What are we talking about now? [6:08] Well, we're talking about, get this, [6:10] you thought one point was a lot of movement? [6:12] You thought two points was a lot of movement? [6:14] Of course, I'm just kidding, it's very little movement. [6:16] Zero points, that's no movement at all, baby. [6:19] That's no movement at all. [6:20] What we're seeing right here is House Republicans [6:23] holding their own amongst a very key group in the electorate, [6:27] who of course will make up an even larger share, [6:31] come this November than they did two Novembers ago, [6:34] back in 2024. [6:35] Now this is my countdown, from eight to one. [6:38] But what about the bonus? [6:41] I was promised you a bonus. [6:43] We're gonna talk bonus, baby. [6:44] We're gonna talk bonus. [6:46] You know, immigration, immigration. [6:48] Of course, such an important part [6:50] of the Donald Trump message back in 2024, 2020, 2016. [6:55] The GOP lead on immigration for all of the actions [6:59] that have occurred over the last year and change [7:01] of the Trump administration. [7:03] Look at this, back in February of 2023, [7:05] before Trump got into office, [7:06] Republicans held a 10 point lead [7:08] on which party was more trusted in immigration. [7:10] Last year in July, it was six points. [7:12] Now, get this, it's eight points. [7:15] It's eight points according to Fox News. [7:17] There's simply been no real movement here. [7:20] Republicans are holding on on a key issue for them. [7:23] And therefore, it should not be much of a surprise [7:26] that Donald Trump is very much holding on [7:28] when it comes to border security. [7:31] Look at this, Trump's approval rating on border security, [7:34] approve of Trump on border security. [7:36] You know, a little bit over a year ago, [7:37] he was at 56%. [7:40] Look at where he is now, he's at 53%. [7:42] Still the clear majority of Americans approve of the job [7:46] that Donald Trump is doing [7:48] when it comes to border security. [7:51] So we've ranked the list. [7:52] We've gone one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, [7:55] but in the reverse order, [7:56] we've given you two little bonus things going on here. [7:59] So I think the real question here is, [8:01] what do you want to hear from me next? [8:03] Leave a comment in the comment section [8:05] and we'll keep our eye on all of these [8:06] as we head into the 2026 midterm elections.