Tomorrow Will Be Crazy

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Memory stocks are crashing, with Micron down 15% in just two days, and now off more than 30% from its June highs. South Korea's KOSPI is down 30%, and about 1.2 million people got margin called. Roughly one in every 30 working-age adults in the country. Gold fell below 4,000, mortgage rates just hit their highest level in nearly a year, and Trump is kicking off a fresh round of global tariffs starting with Brazil. Today we cover why stocks are falling, what to know, and where are the action is right now. [00:00:34] Speaker 2: The semiconductor sell-off is getting pretty crazy. Micron, ticker symbol MU, is now down 15% over the last two trading days, and if you zoom out, it's off more than 30% from its record high that it made back in June. The South Korean market is crashing as well as it's fallen 31.29% over the past 20 trading days, having its worst drop since the Lehman Brothers collapse. This is dragging U.S. semiconductor stocks lower, and they now make up 20% of the S&P 500, the largest percentage ever recorded. 1.2 million leveraged accounts in Korea got margin called, which works out to roughly one in every 30 working age adults in the country. Between 320,000 and 360,000 of those accounts were completely liquidated with some investors left in debt to their brokers. [00:01:28] Speaker 1: South Korea launched more than a dozen leveraged ETFs designed to deliver 2x the daily returns of Samsung and SK Hynix, and those products are amplifying the volatility that we're seeing right now. Regulators have stepped in, banning new listings of single stock leveraged ETFs, and raised the minimum account balance to trade these products up to $20,000. Mortgage rates just hit a one-year high of 6.55% as the impacts of the Iran war are now making their way through the system. The national average price of diesel hit $5 per gallon today, and the Bank of Korea just hiked rates for the first time since January 2023, setting 3.2% inflation, the highest since December of 2023. [00:02:14] Speaker 2: And this is important because it puts pressure on stocks, especially growth stocks, and because trucking, freight, and agriculture all use diesel, those costs will get passed through the supply chain, impacting the economy greatly. The U.S. intensified strikes, though, overnight on Wednesday hitting an oil tanker near Iran's main export terminal. Iran responded by firing at American bases in multiple Middle Eastern countries hitting U.S. military equipment. And at 2 p.m. Eastern time today, U.S. forces began a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night. Iran responded to Trump's threat to blow up Iran's power plants and bridges next week if they don't return to the negotiating table by asking its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. goes after Iran's power network. And Iran also threatened to destroy all remaining infrastructure across the Gulf region, declaring the Strait of Hormuz an invincible red line. [00:03:14] Speaker 1: There is some good news, though. Trump said that Iran has allowed an American citizen who was wrongfully detained in 2024 to leave the country in good condition, and Trump thanked Iran for what he called the gesture of goodwill. Trump is also kicking off a renewed round of global tariffs, and Brazil is first up. A 25% duty goes into effect on July 22nd, with a follow-up move covering more than 80 countries expected within weeks. Brazil is preparing reciprocal tariffs and is taking the dispute to [00:03:45] Speaker 2: the World Trade Organization. And right now, the S&P 500 is only 1.27% off of highs, but it did fall down today by 0.54% in a pretty volatile trading day yet again. And you can actually see that SPY has been trading within a major range over the past week or so. The top end of this range is around recent highs around 755.50 to 756. The lower end of this range extends down to 747 and even goes up to around 748. You can see multiple instances where the SPY has bounced off of the bottom end of this range and the top end. Today, at the end of the trading day, we actually saw a good bounce off the bottom end of the range, close to 748. This bottom end of this range is going to be on the radar for the next few trading days. If this ends up breaking down, expect a move down to the recent support around 739 to 740. That is going to be a big zone to watch for if we see a pullback with support also mixed in around 744 to 745 on the way down. But something that's very important in the short term is the overall trend with SPY the past couple of days. We can actually see that there was a solid uptrend that's been in play. And around the end of the trading day today, this uptrend officially broke and it actually confirmed here in after hours. If we start to see this trend break to the upside tomorrow morning, that will be a good first bullish sign. But if we continue to see rejection off this trend line, it's not going to be a good open tomorrow. And we're also in a very interesting environment [00:05:19] Speaker 1: where the S&P 500 is coming up on 30 consecutive days of being within 5% of an all time high without actually making one. Excluding 2024, every prior case where this happened, the S&P 500 pulled back shortly afterwards. [00:05:36] Speaker 2: Yeah, a lot of these cases have resulted in some major pullbacks. I'll definitely keep that on the radar. But either way, there should be some great trading opportunities going forward. This year's volatility is tracking the historical path pretty closely. And we're heading into that time of the year with historically higher volatility. So watch out, but expect some big moves in both directions. And also Trump will be addressing the nation tonight at 9pm Eastern time. So keep that on the radar. And also looking at the economic lineup for tomorrow, one hour before open housing starts and building permits will release. I don't expect this to move the market too much, but keep them on the radar. I do think that Michigan consumer sentiment will be the most watched data point tomorrow, 30 minutes after open at 10am Eastern. Be ready for that in case it comes in under expectations. Also, the earnings lineup is pretty clear for the rest of the week. Netflix reported tonight and they are falling. TSMC or Taiwan Semiconductor reported this morning, and they are also falling to the downside. Besides that, Mike, I think it's time to jump into the fun stuff, which are some setups and predictions for tomorrow. [00:06:45] Speaker 1: The first stock on watch is ticker symbol DRAM to the downside. This is one we've mentioned quite a bit in the short term to the downside, and it has been falling very hard, which is good to see in a trading sense. I would not be surprised if it's still offered more asymmetric opportunity trading this crash for as long as the ETF is putting pressure on lows. This ETF is extremely volatile. It tracks memory chip stocks. And again, there's some of the most volatile stocks in the market right now. If they start to bounce, I don't think this is a trade worth forcing, but as long as this downtrend stays intact, I think there can be downside opportunity. [00:07:25] Speaker 2: DRAM recently broke through a major support zone right around $55 to $56. And with that zone breaking, then now the next major support is down around $50. $47 to $48. I will be keeping that on the radar. I would not be surprised if it tested that over the next few trading days. But with my first play of the day, I'm looking at Google to the downside, ticker symbol GOOGL, which is the class A shares. It closed down 4.44% today, and they said to be months behind schedule on delivering their most powerful flagship AI model, Gemini 3.5 Pro. As we know, AI has been fueling a lot of stocks. So for them to delay this, that's definitely not a good sign. But there's also clear resistance in the short term at the $373 to $376 range. We can actually see that this stock has rejected close to this range multiple times over the past couple of months. If we can see Google push through this range, that would be a good bullish sign. But that rejection is actually a good sign to the downside. And something that was kind of playing out with Google was an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We can see that that was starting to play out here. And if we start to see some of the neckline and shoulder line give out, especially at the recent support around $350, it would show that that inverse head and shoulder structure is breaking down and that setup might not be playing out like traders might have thought. So if we end up running under $350 over the next couple of trading days, I could see some good opportunities with Google, possibly with short-term opportunities or even swings down to around the $336 recent low. [00:09:00] Speaker 1: Yeah, investors did not like the news they had to say today. So let's keep it close on the radar. Google is one of the market-leading AI companies as well. So it has a big impact on the market as a whole. Another group of stocks that's close on watch are the energy stocks, ticker symbol UGA, XLE, and even CRAK. Energy prices are increasing, especially with refined oil products. If you look at ticker symbol CRAK, this is an ETF that tracks refiners. And they are especially benefiting right now as their profit margins are crushing it, just like we covered in yesterday's video. As the Iran war continues to escalate, I think the potential profits of these companies will further increase. The price action has been phenomenal in the short term, especially out of CRAK. But even XLE has been showing some good strength, as well as UGA, which follows gas prices. [00:09:59] Speaker 2: Yeah, these stocks have been on fire. I'll definitely be keeping energy on the radar. I think CRAK is extremely interesting targeting the refiners. It did very well today compared to the others. But with my next play, I'm looking at ticker symbol MCD yet again. I know that we've talked about McDonald's quite a bit in the short term, and I would not be surprised if it started moving up. It actually has moderate to weak correlation to the SPY at negative 0.62, and it's double bottoming in the short term around 264. This double bottom is critical because it's also touching a long-term trend line. If we actually zoom out on McDonald's going all the way back to 2022, it's bouncing off of this long-term trend. And the last few times, or especially the last time it bounced off of this trend, it had a massive rally and ended up moving up 30%. Now, I know what you guys are saying. That's just 30%, Tom. That's not 300% like Micron or Sandisk, but the options on McDonald's could do pretty well. And I'm expecting a rotation to start to happen, and I think we're actually starting to see this. You know, stocks like MU are starting to turn over very hard, whereas some of these beaten down companies, like let's say Kraft Heinz, has been starting to rip to the upside. This is another stock that I'm watching for short-term rotation. I obviously like McDonald's with the trend line in play, but some others like Kraft or even Walmart, maybe even Home Depot or Lowe's. These are stocks that have been kind of selling off, if not around the lower ends of their recent range. And I wouldn't be surprised if they started to try to push and start breaking out past some resistance. Keep them on the radar, especially McDonald's. [00:11:38] Speaker 1: Sounds good. And let's also jump right into today's momentum plays. With the first one, we have Visa, ticker symbol V, to the upside. [00:11:45] Speaker 2: Yeah, Visa, you can actually see in the short term, it's pushing its resistance right around 365. If it can break 365.20 tomorrow morning, watch for an upside move. [00:11:55] Speaker 1: With the next one, we have Lucid Motors, ticker symbol LCID, also to the upside. [00:12:00] Speaker 2: Lucid Motors has went insane. Over the past few trading days, they had news or rumors of a potential bankruptcy, and then the company came out, called these false, and now it's ripping to the upside. If they can break out past $6.90, watch Lucid up tomorrow. [00:12:16] Speaker 1: And then with the last one, we have Rigetti Computing, ticker symbol RGTI, to the downside. [00:12:22] Speaker 2: Yeah, that was another bad move by Rigetti. I know that we've been watching them down a lot over the past few trading days, but if they end up breaking through $13.95 tomorrow, watch them down again. They are really selling off. [00:12:34] Speaker 1: Sounds good. These three stocks are on the radar for potential continuations tomorrow, if and only if they break through the levels listed. These stocks are volatile, so always protect yourself, use stop losses, only ever enter trades that you know why you're entering and you feel good about, and focus on making smart, disciplined trading decisions above all else. Besides that, Tom, let's jump right into today's $987,000 big money trade. Today, we are looking at ticker symbol NN. The trader here bought the 18 strike call options that expire on December 18th of 2026. For our more advanced traders out there, this is technically a call debit spread, where they also shorted the 25 strike call options. The trader here is risking $987,000 to potentially make $3.983 million. This company, NetNav, develops 3D geolocation and positioning data. Looking at the stock, it has done quite well over the past few years, and it is currently in the process of dipping quite a bit. The trader here appears to be positioning themselves to profit from this dip, and the stock returning close to its all-time high by the end of the year. [00:13:51] Speaker 2: This is a pretty insane uptrend that NetNav has been on here on the technical side, and actually, if we look at this uptrend, this is going to be the third touch of said trend. I know that we like to look at these trends quite a bit here, as if the stock is currently uptrending, that is a pretty good sign. But I will say in the short term, this stock has pulled back extremely hard from its highs, around $24.40, falling around 43%, almost halving here, actually. And it is actually approaching a big support as well. There has been a lot of wicks that have extended down recently to around $13 to $14. You can see a few bounces within this range over the past year. If we end up getting a good bounce around this range, that would be a great sign for this trade. I like the range that they have, the $18 to $25 range. It tells me that they're targeting a pretty big move here. So if we do get into that $18 to $25 range, it would be a great sign for this stock. And considering how the trend has went and how it's broken out each time it's bounced, I would not be surprised to see a move easily get within that range. I will say, though, $18 seems to be a pretty major resistance. And as it gets there, we might see some chop before a real breakout occurs. [00:15:05] Speaker 1: Yeah, we shall see. Either way, let's keep it on the radar. And if you are new to the channel, welcome and consider obliterating that subscribe button. For every single trading day, we post brand new videos just like this one, showcasing crazy million-dollar big money trades, stocks to keep on your radar, spy levels and analysis, the most important news, information, upcoming events, historical stats, and basically everything you need to know and more every single day. If you subscribe, you'll get our videos recommended to you more often. So definitely consider doing that. And let's also give a giant shout-out to today's member of the day, Taikai Tomi in the StockedUp Discord group, who had some great profits today with some spy call options. So huge shout-out to you. Keep up the great work going forward. And it's awesome to see posts like this one. If you guys are into short-term trading, check out that first link in the description in the comments down below to get in on the StockedUp trading floor. The SurgeBot had some nice action today with ASCS put options that moved up by 314%. Google puts that moved up by 201%. There were a handful of other good plays and, of course, a handful of duds as well. You get full access to the big money trades. Weekly lab events. You can chat with Tom and myself all day long. Access all the tools, resources, and information you can need for short-term trading. Plus, all the new features we are set to add as well. You can save a good amount with the coupon in the description and comments down below. So definitely check that out. But besides that, thank you guys so much for watching. And let's crush it in the market tomorrow. [00:16:44] Speaker ?: We'll see you next time.