Timeline for Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery remains uncertain

[0:00] for more now on the status of the strait of hormuz and if it's really open to all ships [0:05] we turn to ian ralby he's president of auxilium worldwide that's a non-profit organization that [0:10] focuses on ocean governance and maritime law and security and welcome back to the news hour let's [0:16] just start with what we heard from both iranian and u.s officials they're saying the strait of [0:20] hormuz is open what are you seeing and hearing is it really open to all commercial traffic [0:26] i think we keep hearing that but it means something very different in practice than [0:30] what most of us would want um completely open would suggest that there would be free flow of [0:34] maritime commerce uninhibited unimpeded that is not what is happening at the moment um iran's own [0:40] conditions on the opening were that the vessels that wanted to come through would have to get [0:47] permission from the irgcn and follow their own prescribed transit routes which route vessels [0:52] around larik island near to the iranian coast and so this is not a free and open uh strait of hormuz [0:59] the way most of us would would want it to be it is very much still within the control of iran and [1:04] what we've seen today is a complete difference between the rhetoric and the reality the vessels [1:10] that tried to get through and started moving towards the strait and and seem to be on their [1:15] way to passing through for the first time in weeks and months were actually hailed and turned back for [1:20] lack of permission from iran and so the the rhetoric and the reality are very different uh at the moment and [1:27] i think we have to be very careful not to get overly excited by what we're hearing from either [1:31] tehran or washington i just want to make real for people what you described there we have a map i want [1:36] to show folks showing those traffic routes and transit routes in yellow there is the route that was [1:41] open to all commercial vessels before the war began that blue route you see the more narrow restricted [1:47] route as you described it ian is the current route the designated coordinated route that iranian [1:52] officials have set up and as you say ships are being turned back but what what are you hearing [1:57] from the shipping companies themselves about how they're looking at this moment as soon as they [2:02] heard the strait was open did many of them indeed try to just pick back up where they left off and [2:06] and transit the strait well i think many are wisely cautious to believe anything coming out of of [2:12] iran especially after the amount of attacks that have occurred on vessels over the last month and a [2:17] half but equally we have to be careful about what we believe out of washington because the rhetoric [2:22] from the president has been both inconsistent and volatile at times and so what we're seeing today [2:27] is is a mismatch between what everybody is saying and what is actually happening and so shipping [2:32] companies were momentarily optimistic and enthusiastic but the reality is actually pushing in a different [2:38] direction and i think that they had a moment of uncertainty and concern around what might actually [2:45] happen but we're hopeful that perhaps en masse movement would overcome any kind of immediate [2:52] concern unfortunately it does not seem to be working out quite as as hopefully as as everyone had hoped and [2:59] so i i think that what we're going to see is a little bit more resistance and resilience on the part of [3:05] the shipping industry to to wait for a greater degree of clarity which has yet to arrive so even even if there [3:11] was clarity on this which we don't have now clarity say tomorrow that the strait was truly and [3:16] unconditionally reopened for traditional transit patterns what would you expect to see how long [3:21] would it take for normal traffic patterns and movement to pick up well we really have two problems [3:27] we have iran at the one hand trying to to maintain a choke hold on this choke point because even though they [3:34] want to say it's open and want to give the optics to suggest that they are now the rational party that's [3:39] making headway towards normalcy we also still have a degree to which they're going to want to control [3:45] what they have have managed to use as their greatest leverage and so it is unlikely they're going to want [3:50] to give that up anytime soon at the same time the u.s blockade is still in place and so that means [3:56] that any vessels that have an iranian connection or go to iranian ports call in iran in any way are also [4:02] subject to being either turned away or potentially seized and so the announcement from the u.s yesterday that [4:08] they're going to start seizing iranian affiliated cargoes worldwide does not exactly engender the [4:14] kind of optimism that this is going to be a free and open strait anytime soon and so we are probably [4:20] a ways away from where we'd see a resumption of normal traffic we also don't know what the security [4:26] picture is in terms of mines or asymmetric capabilities with the which the iranians may [4:30] still yet want to deploy in the event that things break down on the negotiating table and so we're well [4:37] away from a a point where maritime commerce can breathe a sigh of relief and we can expect free [4:42] flow of maritime commerce and thus a resumption of the oil and gas trade as well as all the other [4:47] trades and including containers and bulkers and everything else that moves through for food for [4:52] goods for medicine so this is uh yet to get to the point of any kind of of calm and comfort for the [4:58] ship owners as well as for the seafarers the people who carry our goods on board it is still life [5:03] or death for them to try to go through and we have to keep that in mind that is ian ralby president of [5:09] auxilium worldwide joining us tonight and thank you so much for your time thank you support journalism [5:27] you trust support pbs news donate now or even better start a monthly contribution today