'This is the big gamble': Amanpour untangles Hormuz negotiation nuance

[0:00] Now, according to President Trump, the U.S. has had, quote, very good talks with Iran over the last 24 hours. [0:05] But the word from inside Iran seems to be mixed. [0:08] One of Tehran's top negotiators is mocking the president's brief operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. [0:13] He wrote the, quote, Operation Trust Me Bro failed. [0:19] Sarah. [0:19] All right. Joining me now is CNN chief international anchor, Christian Amanpour. [0:24] Just let's first start with this. [0:25] You saw the Operation Trust Me Bro that was put out by one of the chief negotiators. [0:31] But you also heard Donald Trump spoke to Fox News on the phone saying this should be wrapped up in a week. [0:37] So what are you sort of expecting at this point when you hear all these different views at the same time? [0:46] Well, I think they are the same views that we've been hearing. [0:49] First, defiance from the Iranian side and a very sophisticated trolling activity. [0:54] And secondly, President Trump literally talking all the time to various individual news organizations or in press conferences or whenever the camera is in his face about what actually he thinks is going to happen. [1:06] What is absolutely clear is neither the United States nor Iran wants to go back to full scale war. [1:12] It is not in anybody's interest, neither the U.S. and the rest of the world nor Iran. [1:17] So now the question has always been for the last weeks of this ceasefire, who has the highest patience level and pain threshold? [1:25] And this is what is the big gamble right now, the big sort of wait and see. [1:29] So if there is this one page document that will try to open up the Strait of Hormuz, deal with that, [1:35] President Trump declares victory and then tries to deal and must deal with the nuclear issue, then that seems to be probably more likely. [1:43] Let us not forget that none of these operations that the United States has tried, the latest being Operation Freedom, so-called, to move boats and escort them out of the strait, has worked. [1:53] They just haven't worked. [1:54] In the meantime, the world economy gets worse and worse. [1:57] Iran is in a whole load of pain economically. [2:00] Their civilians, the poverty level, the wastage to the civilian infrastructure. [2:06] Obviously, their weapons systems and all the rest of it have been dramatically weakened. [2:12] So the question is now, what is Iran going to say back to the latest U.S. proposal, knowing, as we know, that they are prepared for more war, as they keep saying. [2:21] They believe it might even be inevitable. [2:23] The United States doesn't want it, even though it has so much military personnel and weapons systems and everything sort of in that region ready and prepared. [2:33] So I think that this is, you know, again, a little bit of wait and see. [2:38] And I think also, let's face it, the Strait of Hormuz was not an issue before the war started on February 28th. [2:45] It was not an issue. [2:46] The nuclear issue was being negotiated at the table the day before the war was started. [2:51] So now it's almost starting from zero and wondering what you're going to get better than you could have done on the days before the war. [3:00] Sure, you've got a much weaker Iran, but it's still there and it has consolidated itself around the hardliners. [3:06] You just said there were demonstrations. [3:07] Well, those aren't protesters against the regime, as you pointed out. [3:10] Those are authorized and sanctioned pro-government shows of defiance. [3:14] This morning, it is Iran's move. [3:18] So there were pro-regime protests erupting in Tehran. [3:21] You can see them right there. [3:23] As a source tells CNN that Iran is expected to respond today to the latest U.S. proposal to end the war. [3:30] We are told that a one-page memo is being floated that would formally declare the conflict over [3:36] and then trigger a 30-day negotiating period to resolve the more serious sticking points, [3:41] including the nuclear issues, unfreezing Iranian assets, and the future security in the Strait of Hormuz. [3:47] Now, President Trump has been sounding optimistic. [3:50] He says Iran has already agreed to some of the sticking points, but the word from Iran, certainly more defiant. [3:58] The parliament speaker there, one of the top negotiators, mocked the president's short-lived operation [4:04] to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. [4:06] He wrote that, quote, Operation Trust Me Bro failed. [4:10] Let's get to CNN's Atlanta Treen at the White House this morning. [4:15] And we're waiting for, you know, white smoke or black smoke to emerge from the White House. [4:18] We're waiting to hear, frankly. [4:20] I don't mean to joke about it, but right now it's just a waiting game to hear what Iran says, right? [4:24] No, absolutely. [4:26] And I did appreciate your Pope joke, given that we know the Secretary of State, Margaret Rubio, is expected to meet with him today. [4:32] But to go back to the topic at hand on Iran, [4:35] Look, we heard from the spokesperson for the foreign ministry in Tehran, [4:41] said that they had received the U.S. proposal, that they were studying it. [4:44] And the expectation we have gotten from our sources is that they are expected to deliver a response to that proposal today. [4:53] Now, of course, the Iranians, what we are hearing is that it is expected to be positive. [4:57] I think a key question, of course, is what is positive for the Iranians is not necessarily positive for everyone else. [5:05] And also, of course, the big question is whether or not what they send back will really line up and match with what, of course, the U.S. has been putting forward. [5:13] Now, I will say that one thing that we have heard from the president is, he told this to CBS yesterday, or excuse me, to PBS yesterday, in an interview, is this question of highly enriched uranium. [5:25] He essentially said that we're going to go get it. [5:27] That has been a huge sticking point throughout all of this, particularly for the Iranians. [5:32] So there are, of course, still very controversial points to all of this that still need to be worked out. [5:40] But I will say, at least from the White House perspective, they are cautiously optimistic. [5:44] They are hoping that the positive feedback they are receiving from the Pakistanis, that the Iranians are moving closer to a compromise, is going to prove to be true. [5:53] They're also just encouraged by any forward movement in these talks right now. [5:56] So we are standing by and waiting to see what exactly the Iranians put forth, John. [6:00] Do you have any sense of where things stand at this moment? [6:03] Based on what I know, and it's not classified information, there is a framework. [6:09] It's nebulous. [6:11] It provides, in effect, for an extension of the ceasefire, despite the exchange of hostilities that have occurred over the last 48 hours. [6:23] The president is saying that the ceasefire continues. [6:26] But it is more like a path forward than a genuine peace proposal. [6:33] So an extension leaving the harder issues until later, like Iran's nuclear program. [6:39] How would you feel about some kind of signed document today which doesn't deal with the enriched uranium still inside Iran? [6:48] A nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable. [6:50] I think there's a lot of consensus on that point. [6:54] But what we're more likely to see as a result of this exchange of papers is simply an agreement to try to seek an agreement. [7:04] And the president's under pressure because he's going to China on March 14th, and he wants some progress before then. [7:12] He has made a fundamental miscalculation that bombing alone would accomplish his objectives. [7:20] Those objectives have been shifting and contradictory, securing the enriched uranium, changing the regime, destroying the missile production capacity, [7:30] halting the terrorist attacks. [7:33] None has been achieved because bombing and bombast and bluster are not capable of doing it. [7:41] So he's under a lot of pressure to extricate the United States and avoid the continuing costs that are imposed on the American people. [7:50] So again, and we don't know specifics of this one-page document, but the broad framework, sort of an extension with the discussion on the major issues to come. [7:59] Where would that leave Iran in terms of the strength of the regime today and tomorrow versus the beginning of February? [8:09] Iran is weakened in terms of its missile and drone capacity and its production. [8:17] But the hardliners are very much in control. [8:22] It is weakened economically, certainly, but it is in control of the strait. [8:27] And it's going to insist that it continue to be in control. [8:33] And the question really is, John, as you've identified it very correctly, will they have some lesser enrichment of uranium, such as the JCPOA contemplation? [8:46] So where Trump is now headed seems to be very much the JCPOA 2.0, maybe slightly changed, and it could have been the result of negotiations, not a war that was based on a fundamental miscalculation. [9:04] Secretary of Defense Pete Hexas says, and I'm paraphrasing here, that essentially the United States holds all the cards. [9:10] Is that how you see it? [9:12] Does Iran have no cards this morning? [9:13] Well, Iran has a lot of cards, and you're seeing them in real time. [9:18] Americans are paying much higher prices for gasoline, but not just for fuel, also for food, everything from mattresses to medical devices, everything dependent on petrochemicals and plastics. [9:31] And the world economy is at risk, all because Iran still holds cards. [9:38] And here's a lesson. [9:40] You can't count on war being quick and easy. [9:44] You can't base it on bombast and bluster or bombing alone. [9:50] And the costs of this war have yet to be fully felt or calculated. [9:56] And I would just emphasize this point. [10:00] This administration has concealed a lot of the costs. [10:02] I've asked repeatedly in classified settings, as well as in open hearings, most recently when Hegseth came before the Congress in a hearing last week, what are the costs of this war? [10:14] And so far, they've stonewalled and really stalled us and the American people. [10:20] We just put up on the screen there, oil prices are down today, a few more percent on expectations. [10:25] I think that there will be some kind of agreement. [10:27] Oil prices and gas prices, they should tear up again. [10:29] I think the national average is about 456 a gallon of gas, which is up a lot over the last week and certainly well over a dollar and a half since the conflict began. [10:37] I think the national average is about 456 a gallon of gas prices, which is up a lot over the last week, which is up a lot over the last week, which is up a lot over the last week.