The US exit from Syria, explained — The Take

[0:00] Today, the U.S. withdraws its troops from Syria. [0:04] The Kurds have lost air support, which the U.S. was integral in providing. [0:09] It's potentially lost intelligence. [0:11] In terms of its place in terms of Syria, it's definitely been weakened. [0:16] We'll look at Syria's ongoing transition from U.S. foe to cautious ally. [0:22] I'm Kevin Hurtin, and this is The Take. [0:30] Hi, so before we continue with today's show, [0:32] remember to leave us a comment telling us what you think about this episode. [0:36] We do read them. [0:37] It's a really good, useful guide for us to figure out where your head's at, [0:42] what you think of the topic, [0:43] what do you think about the decision for the U.S. to withdraw troops from Syria after 10 years. [0:48] And remember, if you're on your favorite podcast app, you can leave us a review, [0:51] and a five-star rating doesn't hurt either. [0:53] It does help the show. [0:58] My name is Natasha Dannen. [1:00] I work for Syria Direct. [1:01] I'm the executive director at Syria Direct, and I'm based in Damascus, Syria. [1:04] So, Natasha, you've been reporting about Syria for years now, [1:08] both before and after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. [1:12] I mean, there's so much happening every day. [1:14] Can you put into words, like, what it's like there, [1:17] how you've managed to keep up with all of the pace of change [1:21] since this major event, December 2024? [1:23] So, yeah, it's things have been evolving very rapidly in Syria. [1:29] There was first the fall of the regime. [1:31] A dynastic rule that survived five decades, [1:34] including uprisings and civil wars, fell in just a matter of days. [1:39] A lightning assault by fighters late last year [1:42] resulted in the takeover of the capital, Damascus. [1:45] And then in March of 2025, [1:49] there were massacres along the Syrian coast [1:51] that targeted primarily Alawites. [1:53] Hundreds of people from Syria's Alawite religious minority [1:56] have been killed in the worst violence there [1:59] since the fall of dictator al-Assad in December. [2:02] The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights [2:05] said it had received reports of revenge killings [2:08] by the new government security forces in the coastal region. [2:12] And then, of course, in July of last year as well, [2:15] there were massacres, sectarian massacres against Druze. [2:18] Hundreds of people are confirmed dead [2:20] and tens of thousands displaced in Syria's southern Sueda province. [2:26] Fighting there has pitted Druze [2:28] and Bedouin communities against each other [2:30] and also involved government forces. [2:33] So it's been rocked by periodic instability. [2:36] The Syrian parliament has yet to take form. [2:39] A series of members of parliament have been appointed, [2:42] but the remaining members of parliament [2:44] have yet to be appointed by the Syrian president, [2:46] Ahmad al-Shara. [2:48] And so, yes, continuing to look out [2:52] corelessly what's happening. [2:53] Yeah, I mean, there's been some really significant developments [2:56] in the past few weeks. [2:58] The big one is that the last remaining U.S. troops [3:01] have now finally pulled out of Syrian regional bases, [3:04] which is effectively ending a 10-year presence in the country. [3:08] I was thinking before we talk about why they left, [3:11] maybe we could start with some history. [3:13] Why were these troops there in the first place? [3:16] Sure. [3:16] So U.S. troops essentially deployed to Syria [3:19] to combat the threat posed by ISIS, the Islamic State. [3:23] In 2014, the U.S. provided sustained air support [3:26] to what at the time was the YPG, [3:29] the Syrian branch of the PKK, [3:31] which is a transnational Kurdish organization [3:34] that's waged insurgency against the Turkish state for decades. [3:38] So these forces were on the ground in Kobani [3:40] fighting off a siege that was imposed by ISIS, [3:43] and the U.S. stepped in and provided air support. [3:46] Their target is the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. [3:50] The U.S. Central Command says that a mix of fighter jets, [3:53] bombers, drone, and tomahawk missiles [3:56] were used against 14 ISIL targets [3:59] near Al-Raqqa, Deir al-Zor, Al-Hasaka, and Al-Bukamal. [4:02] And that relationship continued [4:04] until the territorial defeat of ISIS in 2019, [4:10] and until the U.S. essentially withdrew support [4:13] from this, what was Kurdish-led, [4:16] but overwhelmingly Arab force [4:18] called the Syrian Democratic Forces. [4:21] Right. [4:21] So the troops were brought in [4:22] sort of at the height of the civil war. [4:24] That war is essentially over. [4:27] But I wonder how you explain [4:30] what's behind this withdrawal. [4:31] Is this about the fight against ISIL being over, [4:34] or is it more about, you think, [4:36] shifting U.S., you know, United States priorities? [4:39] Sure. [4:40] I mean, for starters, [4:41] the fight against ISIS is far from over. [4:43] We've already had ISIS attacks at checkpoints [4:45] in Raqqa City in particular, [4:47] and analysts have warned [4:49] that ISIS can make a comeback at any time, [4:52] exploiting the chaos that has been caused [4:53] by the withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces [4:56] from mass wars of territory. [4:59] And as the government steps in [5:01] and tries to control [5:02] those newly gained territories. [5:05] And to answer your other question, [5:08] I would say that this recent withdrawal [5:11] within the last couple of weeks, [5:13] where the U.S. forces withdrew [5:14] from their last remaining air base in Syria, [5:16] was mostly driven by the fact [5:19] that it was looking to avoid Iranian attacks [5:23] on U.S. bases. [5:24] So amidst the war against Iran [5:28] waged by the U.S. and Israel, [5:29] there's been a concern [5:30] that Iran will continue to step up attacks [5:32] on U.S. assets across the region. [5:34] So I would say, [5:35] while it was a long time coming, [5:37] Trump had, in his first term, [5:39] declared that he wanted to withdraw from Syria. [5:41] We're knocking the hell out of ISIS. [5:43] We'll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. [5:45] Let the other people take care of it now. [5:47] Very soon. [5:49] It was precipitated by the recent war. [5:53] However, I think it's a message [5:55] to his U.S. constituency [5:58] that essentially the war in Syria is wrapping up [6:01] and that he's making good on his promise [6:04] to withdraw from Syria, [6:05] even if now the U.S. is entangled [6:07] more than ever in the Middle East [6:09] with the war on Iran. [6:11] Okay. So, Natasha, [6:11] what does that mean, [6:12] like, actually on the ground? [6:15] I think we're talking about 1,000 troops. [6:16] What were they doing [6:17] and what sort of capabilities, [6:20] I guess, their Kurdish allies, [6:21] what type of capabilities have they now lost? [6:25] Yeah. So, I mean, [6:26] the Kurds have lost air support, [6:28] which the U.S. was integral in providing. [6:31] It's potentially lost intelligence [6:33] in terms of its place in terms of Syria. [6:37] It's definitely been weakened. [6:38] I mean, with the offensive, [6:40] the government offensive [6:41] that started at the beginning of the year [6:44] into northeast Syria, [6:44] you had mass affections [6:48] by its Arab constituents, [6:49] which constituted the majority [6:50] of the Syrian Democratic Forces. [6:53] However, the YPG, [6:55] the Syrian branch of the PKK, [6:58] which has thousands of members, [7:00] is still a very strong, [7:01] effective fighting force. [7:03] It's gained years of experience [7:05] fighting on the ground against ISIS, [7:08] as well as across the border to Turkey, [7:10] where the PKK, [7:10] the head of the organization, [7:13] has been waging insurgency [7:15] against the Turkish state [7:16] until very recently. [7:18] Yeah, I mean, [7:19] it's a little bit of an awkward situation. [7:21] I mean, the U.S. troops were there [7:22] to train an army [7:24] that was fighting [7:24] the old Syrian government. [7:26] Now the new Syrian government is there, [7:28] and they're still sort of beefing [7:30] with the SDF. [7:31] There was conflicts a few months ago. [7:34] The new authorities in Damascus [7:36] launched an offensive against the group [7:38] following hostilities [7:39] and a breakdown in negotiations. [7:43] It sounds like there's a lot still to iron out. [7:46] Yes, so the SDF was never on the ground [7:48] to fight against the Assad regime. [7:50] Its mandate was exclusively to fight against ISIS. [7:54] However, there are still a lot of things [7:56] that need to be sorted out [7:57] between the Syrian government [7:58] and the Syrian Democratic Forces. [8:01] The phased transfer of SDF-held areas [8:04] is not expected to be easy. [8:06] It involves integrating administrative structures [8:09] into the state [8:10] and creating brigades [8:11] to integrate the SDF into the army. [8:14] The SDF will also have to expel foreign fighters [8:18] and hand over its heavy weapons. [8:21] So things that may be holding up [8:23] could be the status of the YPJ, [8:25] which is the women offshoot of the YPG, [8:29] the women's fighting force. [8:32] So the SDF and the self-administration [8:36] continue to argue that they should be part [8:39] of the new Syrian army, [8:40] whereas the Syrian government [8:41] are quite reluctant to have them integrated [8:43] and have been pushing for them [8:45] to only be integrated into the police force. [8:47] Other things could include the fact [8:51] that the SDF are still fighting [8:53] for greater autonomy [8:55] and this could take a wide variety of forms. [9:00] However, until now, [9:01] the Kurdish factions have not, [9:04] or rather, Kurdish constituents [9:05] of the Syrian Democratic Forces [9:07] have not surrendered weapons yet. [9:09] The Arab constituents [9:11] in the Arab-majority provinces [9:15] of Deir-el-Zor and Raqqa [9:16] who have been surrendering their weapons. [9:19] So settlement centers were created there. [9:20] They've given up their weapons. [9:21] They've provided information [9:23] in terms of their precise role [9:24] that they played in the SDF. [9:27] But while there is discussion [9:29] about the SDF essentially being downscaled [9:32] and composed of three brigades, [9:34] so one in Derik, [9:36] one in Haseke, [9:37] and one in Kobani, [9:38] these would be brigades [9:40] that are entirely composed [9:42] of former members of the SDF [9:44] that are then incorporated [9:45] into the Syrian army. [9:47] However, until now, [9:49] there's been very few statements, [9:51] if at all, [9:51] from the Syrian government [9:52] and from the SDF [9:53] about what is holding up the negotiations. [9:56] Yeah. [9:57] Okay. [9:57] Let's talk about the timing here [9:59] because this U.S. withdrawal [10:00] coincides with two other [10:01] very significant developments. [10:03] One is Syria's offering citizenship to Kurds. [10:06] This is something that has been [10:07] decades in the making [10:08] and a very, very big deal. [10:11] And the other is [10:12] the ongoing talks [10:13] of folding the Kurdish militias [10:14] into the Syrian army, [10:16] which you just mentioned. [10:17] So maybe you can give us a sense [10:18] of the real sequence of events here, [10:20] how this all came together. [10:21] And I guess the bigger question is, [10:23] from Damascus's point of view, [10:25] is this all part of a larger effort [10:26] to solve this Kurdish autonomy puzzle? [10:30] Absolutely. [10:31] So the Syrian government, [10:33] and specifically Ahmad al-Shara himself, [10:36] has made a significant number of concessions. [10:39] So starting off with recognition [10:41] of Kurdish linguistic and cultural rights, [10:44] including recognition of the Nehruz holiday, [10:46] which was celebrated [10:47] for the first time openly in Syria, [10:50] for the first time in decades, [10:52] very historic. [10:54] And you also have the recent nationality law, [10:58] or rather the granting by presidential decree [11:01] nationality to stateless Kurds. [11:05] So in 1962, [11:07] many Kurds were stripped [11:08] of their nationality in a census [11:10] as part of the Syrian government's effort [11:13] to prevent essentially any form [11:17] of Kurdish nation-states, [11:19] which they had long been promised [11:21] by Western powers. [11:25] So this granting of nationality [11:28] to stateless Syrian Kurds [11:30] has been met with great popularity. [11:32] There have been thousands of people [11:33] who have gone to centers to register. [11:35] However, the key limitation being [11:38] that Kurds in the diaspora, [11:39] Syrian Kurds in the diaspora, [11:41] are not able to register, [11:42] and there is a limited deadline [11:43] for this to occur. [11:45] Yeah, and it's important to note [11:47] that obviously the Kurds [11:49] are not a monolith. [11:50] There's a lot of different [11:51] factional elements here, [11:52] and I'm curious about the PKK. [11:55] It's a Turkish-Kurdish militant group [11:56] that shares ideological roots [11:58] with the YBG, [11:59] which, as we said, [12:00] makes up the Kurdish core of the SDF, [12:02] which is the Syrian Defense Forces. [12:04] There's a lot of acronyms here. [12:08] But how is the PKK reacting [12:11] to this citizenship proposal? [12:12] Have there been any mobilizations [12:14] or statements since this announcement? [12:16] So, no, there have been no statements [12:18] by the PKK publicly addressing [12:20] the granting of nationality [12:22] to stateless Kurds. [12:24] However, the role of the PKK [12:25] is certainly a potential spoiler [12:29] in this entire equation. [12:30] So, one of the conditions [12:32] for essentially the forces [12:35] belonging to Damascus [12:36] coming into northeast Syria [12:37] and for any subsequent [12:39] integration agreement [12:40] was that essentially [12:42] blacklisted individuals [12:43] from the PKK would withdraw from Syria. [12:45] And that's what we saw happen. [12:47] So, Sipan Hamo, [12:48] who is a former member [12:49] of the YPG, [12:50] the PKK organization, [12:54] has been appointed [12:56] as deputy minister, [12:58] which is a hugely symbolic move. [12:59] which shows that [13:01] it's not all members [13:02] of the PKK [13:03] who have been blacklisted in Syria. [13:04] However, individuals [13:05] blacklisted by Turkey [13:06] withdrew from northeast Syria [13:10] towards the mountains [13:12] and bordering Iraq and Syria. [13:16] And so, for the PKK, [13:19] Syria was its key territory. [13:21] So, in Turkey, [13:23] it's been unable [13:24] to gain territorial control [13:27] in the same way [13:27] it was able to in Syria. [13:29] And while it also has a presence [13:30] in Iran, [13:31] it didn't have nearly as much [13:33] territorial control [13:34] as in Syria. [13:36] So, the potential [13:37] for the PKK [13:38] playing a spoiler [13:38] effect or impact [13:40] in this equation [13:41] is important. [13:43] There are many amongst [13:45] in the PKK itself [13:47] that are unhappy [13:48] with the fact [13:49] that the PKK [13:51] or former elements [13:52] of the PKK, [13:53] that YPG, [13:54] will be joining [13:55] the Syrian army. [13:56] Okay. [13:57] So, on the ground, [13:59] Kurdish civilians [14:00] have shouldered [14:01] years of war, [14:03] displacement, [14:03] blockade. [14:04] Now, this all [14:05] kind of lands at once, [14:06] right? [14:07] A U.S. exit [14:08] combined with the promise [14:09] of citizenship [14:09] but with major strings attached [14:11] because it might [14:11] involve conscription. [14:13] How are people [14:14] processing this moment? [14:15] Is it more relief [14:17] or fear [14:18] or a mixture of both? [14:20] Yeah. [14:20] So, the Syrian [14:22] Democratic Forces [14:23] have been key [14:24] in terms of [14:25] providing safety [14:26] from ISIS [14:27] but also against [14:28] Turkey itself. [14:29] So, another actor [14:30] that could destabilize [14:32] any ongoing negotiations [14:33] between the SDF [14:35] and the Syrian government [14:36] is first and foremost [14:37] Turkey. [14:38] Turkey considers [14:39] the PKK [14:40] to be a terrorist [14:41] organization [14:41] even as [14:43] peace talks [14:43] are being held [14:44] and the PKK [14:46] has made [14:47] unilateral steps [14:48] to create [14:49] confidence building. [14:50] However, [14:51] Turkey has [14:52] declared that [14:54] its red line [14:54] is that the SDF [14:56] not integrate [14:57] into the Syrian army. [14:59] So, if there is not [15:00] progress made [15:00] in negotiations [15:01] then this could [15:02] create a serious risk [15:04] for a Turkish intervention. [15:06] Wow. [15:06] Six months from now [15:07] we're going to know [15:08] a lot more than we know now. [15:09] What will you be [15:10] specifically watching for? [15:12] What do you think [15:12] is the most likely [15:13] thing to break [15:14] this sort of [15:15] procession [15:16] towards progress? [15:18] Sure. [15:18] So, as I said [15:19] the potential [15:20] spoil role [15:21] of the PKK [15:22] as well as Turkey [15:23] could play a role [15:23] but I don't think [15:25] there's any appetite [15:26] neither on the side [15:28] of the SDF [15:28] or the Syrian government [15:29] to engage [15:30] in any [15:31] full-fledged [15:32] confrontation. [15:33] The Syrian army [15:34] is still recovering [15:35] from the bloody massacres [15:38] that it carried out [15:39] in the coast [15:41] last year [15:42] but also [15:42] in Sueda [15:44] the Druze-majority province [15:45] of Sueda [15:46] and these [15:48] for example [15:49] in the case of Sueda [15:50] the Syrian government [15:50] was not able [15:51] to take control [15:52] let alone [15:53] a place [15:54] like northeast Syria [15:55] where the SDF [15:57] have a very strong presence [15:59] have now [16:00] over a decade [16:01] of experience [16:02] on the ground [16:02] fighting ISIS [16:03] and are very well-armed [16:04] thanks to the US [16:05] so I don't think [16:06] there's any appetite [16:07] on the part [16:07] of the Syrian government [16:08] to engage [16:09] in serious [16:10] clashes [16:11] with the SDF [16:12] unless Turkey [16:13] is prepared [16:14] to step in [16:15] and provide air support [16:16] and to escalate things. [16:18] Yeah, I mean [16:19] from your reporting [16:21] in Damascus [16:22] do you feel like [16:23] the government [16:24] is confident? [16:27] I mean [16:27] not confident [16:28] because there's so many [16:29] things that could go wrong [16:30] but does it seem like [16:31] they're optimistic [16:33] that this is a new Syria [16:35] and they'll be able [16:35] to bridge all these [16:37] seemingly intractable divides? [16:40] It's hard to get [16:40] a clear reading [16:42] on the Syrian government [16:43] there's a lot [16:44] of different personalities [16:45] but I would say [16:48] the government [16:49] is going into [16:50] file of northeast Syria [16:52] with awareness [16:53] given the concessions [16:54] it's made [16:55] however the critique [16:56] is that [16:57] it's granted [16:58] linguistic and cultural rights [17:00] but it hasn't [17:01] granted political rights [17:02] and there's still [17:02] a lot of pushback [17:03] from the Syrian government [17:04] in terms of anything [17:05] that's called decentralization [17:06] even though that's [17:08] something that [17:08] many groups [17:10] in the country [17:11] have called for [17:11] first and foremost [17:13] the Kurds themselves [17:14] so without a degree [17:16] of decentralization [17:17] it's unlikely [17:19] that the Kurds [17:19] are willing to [17:20] accept any sort [17:21] of settlement [17:22] without that. [17:23] Okay [17:23] well Natasha [17:24] thank you for coming [17:25] on The Take today. [17:26] Thank you [17:27] appreciate it.