The Stock Market Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce?

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Oh man, your boy Kevin just lost lots of money [00:00:04] Speaker 2: Oh that's okay, I am with you Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, oh my god, what's happening? [00:00:23] Speaker 3: First of all, all of this whining by Wall Street, it's making me sick 140% of GameStop was short, GameStop was short, short You can't allow Wall Street to short 75% of a stock Crush these companies into the dirt, thousands of stocks into the dirt Then when the individual makes money, everyone's entrepreneurs I have a kid who bought a house, paid $50,000 and bought a house After decades of the shorts, you have to accept the fact that individual investors Are playing the same game that you're playing and now you're losing [00:00:52] Speaker 2: Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip Here we go, come on, push it, buy the dip, buy the dip [00:01:11] Speaker 4: Here we go, come on, push it, push it, push it, buy the dip These big internal rotations are a new story of the fall Let's get the opening number Here we go At the big board on Wall Street, it's the United States Armed Forces On this Veterans Day, U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Craig Sokola Commander Expeditionary Strike Group 2 That's cool At the NASDAQ and Times Square, it's NFL's salute to service The league's initiative honoring service members, veterans and military families At SIBO in Chicago, it's SIBO's Veterans Associate Research Group Along with Academy Securities in recognition of Veterans Day today [00:01:48] Speaker 5: Whee! Happy Veterans Day! Welcome on back to another Stack Market Open Livestream Are we finally over with the catalyst? We shall see! We've got the queues up 191 at the open, well above 675 On its way back to 700 Look at this mess yesterday A failed breakout yesterday as markets had to price in CP lie Look at that bounce in the post market there on the queues But boy oh boy, here we sit Everybody on pins and needles to see [00:02:33] Speaker 6: Are we going to get a deal with Iran And the answer is probably not Probably nothing is going to happen [00:02:40] Speaker 5: And it is unfortunate As the threats ramp up and nothingness happens We've got Brent back at $92.72 a barrel Bond sitting right at the 5% number Right there Clean Now in fairness, the bond market is shut today And so we're like banks and stuff So it's not going to move today But yeah, yesterday we were talking about This puppy's probably going to go to 5% But I think it caps out there I honestly, I have to say I wasn't expecting it to cap out at exactly 5% It's obviously a very clear psychological like buy signal That's where you get buyers coming in going Ah, clean 5% Okay, that's my buy signal So, you know, market simple Then this is old news Yeah, I know this has been circulating This, you know, Razi rejects moving nuclear material out of the country Honestly, old news This is exactly why we talk about diluting their material inside the country So, I don't find that particularly useful You know, some people do But, you know, whatever So, diplomacy by threats That's fine Iran Okay, G7 Condemns Iranian attacks on neighbors Old news Let's see Iran's defense ministry Dismisses Trump's claims Misleading stats Yeah, there's some other notes here coming through too If the U.S. attacks Iran We will not only attack nearby bases But distant bases located in far off places that we've yet attacked Tehran will target military bases in European countries If U.S. aircraft take off from them to strike Iran So that kind of reiterates that like foiled plan that we saw in the United Kingdom With those vans And then they, you know, they ended up letting those people go Which was also kind of crazy But anyway Economic pressure says This does not mean that the U.S. will get everything it wants Says a professor inside of Tehran The economic situation is very bad Things are available Necessities are available And imported goods are there But they are extremely expensive She said it's hard Said the hardship is not only about the war But also Iranians coping with the pressure of sanctions In inflation Yeah, of course And the economy is in a bad state But that does not necessarily mean the American people Or the Iranian people Will kneel to the Americans Or the Americans will get everything they want Yeah Yeah, I believe it I totally believe it There is that aggressiveness To stand firm for the Iranian beliefs And that's really what's dragged out this negotiation This idea that Oh, yeah, we gotta get those Those seven conditions And Donald Trump is like Well, fine I'll just keep squeezing you guys All right Let's go take a look at OpenAI here Especially with AMP coming up So Here we've got More updates to the plane crash No, you know What we're really looking for Is we're trying to get updates On that cockpit voice recorder That's the next thing To really pay attention to With that flight TSB Let me see here But the fact that they got The cockpit voice recorder Is fantastic Yeah, no Nothing yet So once they release this transcript If they can get it Boy, that'll be great I really hope it's intact So I'm very grateful That it's here So hopefully it's It's functional and intact I mean, you can see the thing's Full of mud But That's the intention Is that these things Are able to be You know, quite well Sealed off It's really impressive That The container for it Is in such Decent looking condition Quite remarkable I have to say Anyway So Oh, did Bloomberg just report Let me see here Okay, we got this talk About the oversubscribed You don't see anything on Iran from the doomers But I don't expect anything new here Really, anyway Let me see And we got core weave over here We're gonna look at And then we'll also look at What's cooking Yeah, queues Queues couldn't hold on To that 1.9, I guess Look at that You got a little bit A little bit of selling Coming in here Doesn't Seem too aggressive Core weave Yeah, core weave Seeing a little bit Of selling as well Which probably means NVIDIA Is seeing a little bit Of selling pressure Eh, a little bit None of that's As extreme as it's been Okay, open AI revenue Open AI has told investors That revenue jumped Nearly 50% To $10 billion In the third quarter Wow Wow That's $40 billion Annualized That's great Rebounding from a period Of slower growth They have They have really started Improving the product Quite a bit Uh, you know You just need Gemini to catch up Honestly So, good for them Let's make a note here That's going to be Uh, that's $40 bill ARR Uh, based on This quarter Uh, I have been Watching Uh, GPT Uh, GPT Play catch up To Claude features So that's not A horrible surprise The company's operating losses Also grew During the third quarter There we go Company shared Some financial metrics With investors During a call Tuesday And it looks like They're seeking To fundraise At a $1.25 trillion Valuation Yeah, I And I think That's probably Helping underwrite Anthropic You know Oops So I think People are going in Saying Oh, well If OpenAI Is going to be worth $125 Well Then Anthropic Is worth more This Uh, puts a Perceived floor Uh, under Ant OpenAI's Rev growth Higher than Uh, the 17% In the second quarter From the first So accelerating Again Demand for the company's Recent models Including Astra Astra's also very good Especially at Uh, renderings Blah, blah, blah, blah Blah, blah None of this really matters OpenAI still has a large Consumer business Company said last month It had 1.2 billion Active users I mean That actually puts it On the scale of Of, you know Like a A meta Uh, on Uh, meta level Uh, scale Yeah Meta has 3.9 billion Active users Across Family of apps Uh, 1.2 billion Here is One Heck of a Mode And, uh They'll implement Basically You know Products and features From others From others Like, uh Like Ant Wow Smart Okay So then Yeah That's that Alright Good, good, good So that leaves us Uh, that's the NTSB Tracking that We've got Coreweave Okay Let me see the Coreweave item Here If Iran deal Done Time for margin Ha ha ha Uh That's a really Good question Actually Uh I'm Generally Very, very Anti margin But Boy The day In Iran Deal Gets done Which You know At this point Just seems Pie in the sky Uh I would expect It to start A pretty rapid Rally And Almost to where And I'm not Saying this is This is what I would I'm certainly Not gonna do it And I don't Know that anybody Should do it But You know Could somebody Argue Hey I'm gonna use A little bit Of margin And then Have a Trailing stop In case There's a Reversal Yeah Argument Especially on Like an index Level On the NASDAQ Or the SPY Sure But You'd actually Have to Have set The trailing Stop And not You know Be like Oh yeah Well I'll Just sell If it goes Down Because then What'll Happen Is it'll Go down And then You won't Actually sell And be like Well I'm Just gonna Diamond Hand it Bro And then You go Bankrupt Coreweave Eased fears About its Debt-laden Business During its Quarterly Report A computing Company Projected Revenue Of 13 Billion This year Exceeded The previous Range Coreweave Up Outlook Offered Some solace Let's see What they Say here If Coreweave Constrained Together Several Quarters In a row Of this Type Of Execution Fears Would Subside Well I Really Think They're Not Going To Rely Anymore On Financing Themselves I Think What's Going To Happen Is You're Going To End Up Getting Bigger Companies That Just Make Sort Of Investments Or Pre-payments That's How How You Kind Keep Them Alive Yeah Yeah See See The Company Wouldn't Be Tapping Unsecured Debt Markets At Current Rates And That Multiple Signed Sources Of Financing Were Underpinning The Business Of Course Totally Agree With That Honestly Their CDS Should Be Tanking Today I Actually Don't Know If CDS Are Actually Moving Today Uh I'll Look But Let Let [00:12:52] Speaker ?: Let [00:12:52] Speaker 5: Let See Here If I Go With Core Weave CDS Five Year Let's See We'll See So Oh Yeah Okay CDS Yeah But As Of What They They've Come Down As Of Yesterday So They Came Down Yesterday And I Don't Have Numbers For Today But We're Definitely Off Peak On The Core Weave CDS For Yesterday Which Is Good And If I Do The CDS On Like Meta Which Is Obviously Much More Stable Which Is Why Their CDS Is Cost One Tenth Yeah They've Slowly Come Down As Well So They're At The Lowest Price That We've Seen Since October 20th Okay Good So That's Good Core Weave Sent a Letter To Hinojosa Yeah I Wonder If She's Replied Though We Have Not Heard Anything On Okay That's Fine So Core We've Fine A Little Overblown Fears There We've Got The Anthropic They Finally Priced It Low Enough To Get It To Over Subbed Let's See Here That Is Anthropic Multiple Times Orders For Shares Available IPO Bloody Bloody Bloody Bloody Anthropics Looking Bolster Demand That's Fine Companies Targeting A Value Of About 1.4 Trillion That's After The Raise Below Where Some Investors Expected The Company To Settle Goldman Sachs Is Leading Yeah Alright Nothing To See There It's Boring Okay What Else Here Grand Theft Auto Latest Swing For Take Two I Wonder How Take Two Is Actually Moving Now That This Puppy Is Coming Out I Mean Everybody Mega Hyped On This What's This Thing Called Take Two Take Two Interactive So Take Two Up Three Percent Today Oh Yeah Look At That It's At Least On The Day Chart It Looks Like It Sort Of Bottomed Out Around October 30th And On The Weak Chart Oh Look At It Bounced Off The 200 DMA Nice Nice Lot Lot Of Pressure The Pressure The Real Pressure On That's Alright They Will Be Alright Cues Yeah Still Struggling To Really Hold On Over Here And You Do Have Core Weave That's Holding On And Now Improving Meta Is Right At The 642 Line And If I Go To In Vid Yeah In Vid's Also Back Into Sell Mode It's Like You Got A Lot Of That Profit Taking On Queues Kind Of Or On NVIDIA Just Pulling Those Queues Down Come On Jensen Why You Gotta Do Us Like That Alright So Let's See Here Now We've Got Oh Let's See Here Feds Gonna How Fast To Go Old News [00:16:11] Speaker 7: Okay There's [00:16:19] Speaker 5: Actually Not So Terribly Much Going On Here On The Times Okay Let's Try The Journal Or The Economist Then An American Furniture Maker Tried To Bring Jobs Back Home It Didn't Work This Is The Whole Tariff Idea What Is That North Carolina That Look Like North Carolina We'll Look At That And Just Say Let's See Here Progressive Lose Wealth Tax Old News You Know There Was Commentary Yesterday From The Fab That Hey You Know Maybe If We Had The Iran Deal We Wouldn't Have To Raise Rates I Thought [00:17:06] Speaker 7: That Was Interesting Alright Let's Take A Quick Look Over Here So Let's See Top [00:17:13] Speaker 5: Furniture Let's See Here Okay So What's The Point Of This When The U.S. Allowed Unfettered Access To American Markets They Were Found Suppliers That Were Able To Deliver What American Consumers Wanted Yeah But Then You Got Tariffs Oh Look At That Dude What Did I Say North Carolina That's Crazy All I Saw Was That Red Building That They Showed In The Little Preview Image And I Looks Like North Carolina That's Awesome Hypo in North Carolina Until She Closed The Shop After Ten Months Cut Jobs A Sofa Made In Asia Now Cost Fifteen Hundred Dollars Furniture Tariffs Are Not Going To Be Tom Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Okay So This Is Just Really About Tariffs And Manufacturing In America How Challenging That Is Oh That Looks Kind Of Cool Isn't It That's In Vietnam Oh Interesting [00:18:08] Speaker 7: Yeah [00:18:12] Speaker 5: Alright Whatever Okay So Let's Take a Look At This The Editorial Board Staff What You Got Email Us Yeah You Get Email Staff At Reinvest One Dot Com Goes To The Same Place Staff Me Kevin That Doesn't Matter Whatever You Want So Let's See Here At Least That One Yeah It Should Be Forwarding But Staff At Reinvest One Dot Com Is What We're Using Right Now But I'm Pretty Sure We Have A Forward Set Up For That But Anyway Okay So President Trump Said The Iran War Is Effectively Over Well He Always Says That I Think The Ukraine War Has Been Effectively Over For You Know The War With Russia Russia And Ukraine Has Effectively Been [00:19:02] Speaker ?: Been [00:19:02] Speaker 5: Over For You Know How Long Has Trump Been In Office Let's See Journal Reported Monday That The Iranian Threat Had Prompted A Reshuffling Of Refueling Tankers Over To Germany And Other Locations Three Osprey Helicopters Were Also Evacuated This Follows October Withdrawal Of B2 Bom Or B1 Bombers From The Fair Ford Base Under Pressure Mind You That These Threats Have Now Moved Besant Into A Military Base Apparently Besant Moved To Military Base Due To Threats And You Also Have The Iranian Sec Chief Security Chief Argus If You Launch Attacks On Iran From European Bases Will Attack Those Two You Know Which Again Reiterates That Sort Of Terror Plot That Supposedly Was Foiled And These People Were Let Go I Don't Know Last Year MI5 Tracked More Than 20 Potential Potentially Lethal Iranian Back Plots In The UK And Britain Has Made More Than 50 Arrests Related To Iran Linked Operations Embarrassing Upshot Is That Iran Even With A Depleted Military Can Still Do Significant Harm The Soviet Union Couldn't Chase The U.S. From Its European Bases During The Cold War Yet [00:20:43] Speaker ?: Yet [00:20:43] Speaker 5: Today Today With The Spread Of Low Cost Lethal Drone Tech Bases Have Become Harder To Offend I Mean Yeah I Guess That's True You Can Just Strap A Bomb To A Drone And And Yeah I'll Take Out You Know Bomber It's Crazy Huh Hey Nvidia Is Finally Stabilizing That's Good That's Kind Of Useful Apple 353 Just Keeps Keeps Cranking Honestly Apple Wow Very Impressive Okay So President Trump's Budget Includes Money For Drone Defense Iran Doesn't Believe It's Been Defeated The Way Mr. Trump Says And Doesn't Believe It Will Pay Much Of A Price Of Terrorism Okay So UK Must Be Must With Okay Alright So Those Are Notes Here Let's Go Look At That Besant Piece Besant Military Base So That Was Here And Then The Other Thing Is Let See Here Alright So Here's A Bloomberg Piece About How Basically The Iran War Is Stuck In Limbo I Agree With This I Think To Trump Has No Urgency To Deal With This And One Of The Reasons Oil Is Going Down Is Because Trump Is Basically Arguing We Don't Need To Bomb We Can Let It Drift Oh Yes Saudi Arabia's Oil Flows We're Doing Really Well As Well Saudi Arabia I Saw This [00:22:33] Speaker ?: This [00:22:33] Speaker 5: Morning It Was Up 25% Or Something Like That Let Eight Month High Saudi Arabian Oil Production Close To Pre-war Levels Oil Production Rebounded Close To Pre-war Levels In October As The Kingdom Found Ways To Keep To Keep Exports Flowing Despite An Escalation It Produced 10.6 Billion Or Million Barrels A Day Of Oil Last Month The Highest Level Since February So That's Great For Saudi Arabia Higher Than An Average Of Two Months Leading Up To The War So This Is Also Helping Oil Prices Come Down Now In Fairness You Keep Seeing These Attacks On The East West Let See Here East West Pipeline Saudi Okay Here This Is A November 9th Report Saudi East West Pipeline Was Struck Again On Monday A Limited Fire That Has Since Been Extinguished So You're Still Getting The Pressure Let's Go To Iran Iran Nuclear Deal Iran Nuclear Deal Right Here Yeah Okay Yeah Now The Odds Are Slipping Again Look at This So If We Look At Before March The odds Are Just Sitting At 14% Now So The odds Of a Deal In the Near Term Have Really Taken Of Poopy Of Poopy Dupes Let's See Here This Is January 2028 Is The Blue Line January 2029 Is The Green Line Yeah Look At That You Kind Of See Since The Last Couple Days The odds Have Actually Just Been Slipping The Last Couple Days There's No Urgency None At All So That Means This Is You Know This This Really Sadly It Just Feels Like It's You Know Another Forever War Right Uh Okay Saudi Arabia Let's See Let's See 76 Attacks On Shipping In October That's Quite A Bit That's Definitely A ramp Up From September I Think That's About Double September Still On Pace For That And The November Has Been It's Been Daily That You've Seen Strikes Let's Go To LJ Again For A Moment [00:25:14] Speaker 7: No Nothing Nothing There Okay Let's Try Wapo Wapo Or Axios See If We Can Get Any [00:25:29] Speaker 5: Of The Latest Hints On These Puppies Axios No Fine Yeah Trump Swung Between War And Diplomacy Then Chose A Third Way What's The Third Way An Endless Blockade Economic Crackdown Yeah Exactly Iron Gate Well And That Just Got Stamped Up This Weekend Rubio Explained The U.S. Iran Policy On A Closed Door Meeting On Tuesday With Foreign Ministers Oh That Was Just Yesterday The President Doesn't Have Two Options It's Not Just To Return To War Or Sign A Ridiculous Peace Deal We Won't Do A Stupid Deal Oh Wow Somewhat Implies That They're Just Not Close Right Implies The Seven Conditions Ain't Happening Patience Instead Yeah That's That's Unfortunate For Current State Of What's Going On In Iran Let's See Here If I Can Get The Seven Let's See Here Let's See Let's See Here Okay So Seven Conditions Seven [00:26:55] Speaker 7: Conditions Let's See Here Where Okay [00:27:07] Speaker 5: Here We Go So The Expectation Is The Following One End The War On All Fronts Two Release Frozen Iranian Funds Three Lift The Naval Blockade Four Sanctions Relief Five Compensation And Then They Want So That's Five Then I Want To Say Six And Seven Are Troops Out Of The Region And No You Know They Maintain Their God Given Rights For Enrichment Basically Okay Okay So If We Look Over Here Here You Can I Mean It's Pretty Clear Rubio Is Not Happy Here Third Option We Have Is To Continue Doing What We Do Now I I Think We Actually I Hate To Say It But I Feel Like We Are Going Into An Arrow And I Said This Even Before The Election That If We Don't Get A Deal By The Election The Odds Of Getting A Deal Fades Substantially And We Might Just Never Get A Deal This Could Kind Of Be Like The China Trade War Where You Sort Of Like Everybody Sort Just Understands That This Is Gonna Go On For A While Rubio Went On To Say The U.S. Is Opposing A Devastating Cost On The Iranian Economy I Mean We Did Just Have That Mention In Al Jazeera As Well Where Was That Professor Yeah This Was The Distant Basis Piece We Talked About That Already As The Alert Came Through Mm Hmm Here Part The President Is Not Under A False Time Pressure Yeah Not Anymore There's No Election That's Why I Said The Iranians Know That Like If They Want A Deal They Need To Get It Done Also Before The Election Because That's When Trump Would Actually Stand To Benefit Now You Have This Little Dangling Carrot I Think It Was Bowman Who Talked About Iran Yesterday Bowman Iran Fed Let me See If I Can Get That Up Yeah Here We Go All Right So Yeah Look At This This Is Your Vice Chair For Supervision At The Federal Reserve Michelle Bowman U.S. Economy And Considerations For Monetary Policies Wow She Spoke At CFR Oh That's Cool Council Foreign Relations We Are Experiencing Rapid Technological Change And Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions See The Fact That She Specifically Mentions The Geopolitical Tensions Not Great Because You Know That That Means Hey We're Gonna Have To Deal With This Crap Right They Say That They Cut Last Year To Help The Labor Market Inflation Has Recently Shown A Sign Of Broadening That's Not Great Despite These Changes Increased Investment In The Use Of AI Are Boosting Economic Growth AI Or Super Intelligence Are Boosting Economic Growth Hey The Super Intelligence Mention You Know You Know What That Sounds To Me Like That Sounds Like She's Pitching Reinvest One Super Intelligence In One Terminal Coming Out Soon By The End Of The Year It's Actually Really Exciting We've Got Coupon Live Streams Reinvest Home Stocks Research Online Courses The Consumer AI Blueprint The Business AI Blueprint I Mean There's A Lot In This This Is Really Exciting Just Go Read It All At Reinvest One But Yeah We're Killing Lifetime Access Going Into Or Once We're In 20 27 Unless You Bought Before Then And So That's Going To Expire In Two Days But Shout Out To Super Intelligent Alright So Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Goals Are To Achieve Maximum Employment Price Stability While The Labor Market Has Improved More Than I Expected Our Progress On Lowering Inflation Has Been Disappointing Yeah Well Partly Because Of The Iran War Honestly See I'm Monitoring Expectations About AI And Energy Prices So Recently We've Actually Had Weakness In AI But The Iran War [00:31:38] Speaker 6: It Looks Like It's Going To Go On Forever [00:31:42] Speaker 5: What Anthropic Discontinues Let's See You Can't Get Access I Wonder If You're In Spam EN 50 When Did You Email Make Sure You Email Just Forward It Right Now To Staff At Reinvest Dot Com And I Can Confirm That It's There And The Team Will Help You But Staff At Reinvest Dot Com Is The Email We'll Get You Logged Back In If You've Already Got Access We Always Help People Sometimes People They Forget Their Login Do An Ant Video Later SpaceX SpaceX Anthropic Deal Let Just Look At That Really Quick Let's See I Don't See Where You See That Where Do You See Something About Anthropic Not Doing The Compute Deal With SpaceX Iran Deal Before Democratic Congress I Don't Know Man No Yeah I Don't See I Don't See [00:32:52] Speaker 7: That About SpaceX [00:32:54] Speaker 5: Okay Let's Go Back To This But Anyway Yeah That That Offer Stands For Everybody If You Ever Have Any Questions About Even If You Have Questions About Joining Like Hey I'm Thinking About Joining I Just You Know Does It Include This Or That Or Whatever I've Been A Member Do I Need To Upgrade To The Reinvest Terminal Or Whatever You Know We Can Help You Make Sure You Get Taken Care Of Just Email Us Staff At Reinvest One Dot Com We'll Take Care Of You Consistent With My Views On The September FOMC I Continue To Focus On I I Joined My Colleagues In Holding Until We Had A Better Understanding Holding The Federal Funds Rate And We Should Wait Until We Have A Better Understanding Of How Conditions Would Evolve Yeah Basically Are We Going To Get A Deal By You Know What's It Called Or Not Right Yeah Stuff Like How Much Is An Upgrade Just Email Us You Know It's Not Easy For Us To Answer That Here Because We Don't Know What Do You What What Courses Do You Own What Did You Pay Right We Want To Make Sure Everybody Gets Taken Care Of So You Have To Email Us At Staff Reinvest One Dot Com Okay So What Is This This Is Anthropic Signs Another 4.3 Billion Compute Deal With Microsoft So Where's The SpaceX Part SpaceX There's Nothing About SpaceX In Here This Is Just Them Signing Another Deal I Mean Yeah That's Just What They Do All Right So Where Were We Okay Maintaining The Policy Stance In October Allowed Us To Assess The Incoming Data While I Expect Several Factors Will Abate On Inflation Next Year Currently Inflation Has Proven More Persistent Than Anticipated It Will Be Important To Gain Clarity On The Recent Market Volatility On Financial Conditions Yeah Financial Conditions Have Really Tightened Because Now You Have Yields Up And Stocks Down Right So That's Kind Of Important Yields Up And Stocks Down Those Are Tighter Tighter Those Are Tighter Expectations Okay [00:36:00] Speaker 7: It's All Over X Okay I'm Gonna Look Over There Anthropics SpaceX [00:36:09] Speaker 5: Yeah So It's Already Getting Community Noted The Remarks Are Unverified Secondhand Notes From A Barclays Analyst Call On Anthropic Meetings Not Official Statements Posts Are Corrected 10 Billion Cost Blah Blah Blah Filing Show SpaceX Deals Extend To 20 29 But Are Terminal You Know What's Probably Going On Is You Probably Have Anthropic Trying To Like Basically Argue Oh Don't Worry Our Costs Are Going To Come Down We're Going To Negotiate Those Expensive Contracts They're Trying To Sell Their IPO I Think This Is Overblown Is Kevin Not Wearing His Wedding Anytime You See Me Wearing It's The Our Ring I Have Not Worn A Wedding Ring Probably Since 2014 And Neither Is Lauren We Just We Don't Wear Rings Really Our Rings Sometimes But Only Because I'm Comparing It To The Latest Apple Health Update That They've Come Out With Which Is Pretty Good Although Siri Still Sucks U.S Economic Growth Has Stepped Up After Rising Okay Economic Growth Has Been Supported By Robust Cap Ex Solid Consumer Spending This Is True Some Interest Rates Sensitive Sectors Like Residential Investment Have Declined Yes Because Of The Recent Rise In Mortgage Rates That Makes Me Bullish Real Estate I Love Buying Stuff When Everybody Else Hates It Consumer Spending Has Strengthened This Year Despite Softness In Real Incomes Which Are Partly Due Higher Energy Prices Right Labor Market Conditions Thoughts On Micro Strategy Getting Removed From MSI No I Think These Like Stretch Funds That They Have Are Going To Zero One Day I'm Not Saying Bitcoins Are Going To Zero I'm Saying Those Little Funds Are Not Going To Survive The Next Recession I'm Very Bearish On Those Funds Labor Market Conditions Look To Have Improved Since Last Year Yes [00:38:16] Speaker ?: Yes [00:38:16] Speaker 5: They Have This Is Actually Pretty Insightful Look Into What's Going On With Job Finding Rate Has Been Low Yeah But People Are Still Finding Jobs It's The Thing Job Availability Perceptions Have Remained Soft Layoffs Have Moved Down This Year Offsetting The Softness In Hiring And Then Of Course You Got Immigration Oh Aura Delayed Its IPO Yeah Yeah You Know I Actually One Of The Things That Drives Me Nuts About Wearing Rings Is If You Go To The Gym They Always Clank Against The Metal Unless You Wear Gloves But Then You Have Put Gloves On And The Annoying Thing About Gloves Is If You Go Like You [00:39:13] Speaker ?: You [00:39:13] Speaker 5: Know You Work On A Laptop And Then You Do A Set And You Go Back To Laptop Or Whatever It's Like You Have To Take The Gloves On And Off It's Like Stable Labor Market Does Not Appear To Be Tight Wage Growth Has Slowed To A Modest Pace Yeah I Agree With That It's It's Kind Of Like It's A Functional Labor Market Wages And Salary Component Increased Average Hourly Earnings Both Measures Are Slowing From Last Year Yeah This This Is Them Being Attentive To The Labor Market Attentive To Labor Market I Think If You Get A Deal With Iran You Don't Get A Right Hike If You Don't Get A Deal With Iran You You're Getting A Rate Hike I Think It's That Binary Right Now Okay One sec Uh So [00:40:26] Speaker 7: Okay Then Okay That's Done What Is This Note About Russia Here What Is This Safety Zone Along Border [00:40:36] Speaker 5: With Ukraine Is Substantial Expanding Will Continue To Expand Oh They're Calling It A Safety Zone That's Interesting That's Like the Whole Buffer Zone Idea All right Increasing Number Of Workers Have Taken On A Supplemental Part-time Job To Make Ends Meet Given The Strong Productivity Gains Wage [00:40:53] Speaker ?: Wage [00:40:53] Speaker 5: Growth Is In Line Or Even Below The Pace We Would Expect If Inflation Was Running At 2% Let's See Here Given The Strong Productivity Gains Wage Growth At This Pace Is In Line With Or Below The Pace We Would Expect If Inflation Was Running At 2% In Line With Or Below The Pace Yeah So Basically Wage Growth Is Not What's Contributing To Inflation Which Is Good Because It's Indicative That You Don't Have Like There's There's No Like Wage Spiral Right That This Is Really A Geopolitical Issue She's Basically Setting Up Wages Are Not Spiraling This Is Not A Wage Price Spiral Wages Are Not The Issue Even These Wage Gains At 03 Are Consistent With 2% Inflation And Some Reads Have Been Even Lower At You Know 0.1 Okay [00:41:59] Speaker 1: You [00:42:05] Speaker 5: Gonna Tell Us Why You Have A Laptop At The Gym Oh Well Because Our Gym Is At The Office I Yeah I Don't I Don't Go To The I Don't Go To 24 Hour Fitness With A Laptop No I Like It [00:42:15] Speaker ?: It's [00:42:15] Speaker 5: Like The Office Is Literally The Same Place As The Gym Because We Have Our Gym It's Like Yeah I Guess That Clarity Would Be Useful To People And That Would Make More Sense Inflation Progress On Lowering Inflation Has Stalled Over The Past Two Years Or So Today's Consumer Price Index Suggest That 12 Month Core PCE Likely Moved Up Further Right Likely Moved Up Further So This Is Unless You Get Like A Dunk In PPI On Friday Lack Of Progress On Lowering Inflation Largely Reflects A Confluence Of Shocks Unrelated To Conditions In The Labor Supermarket Correct Tariffs Basically Trump Trump And AI Each Accounted For Roughly One Fourth Of The PCE Wow Look At This They're Literally Telling You 25% Tariffs 25% Trump 25% PC Or AI And Then 25% Would Just Be Normal Inflation Whoa That's The First Time I've Seen Them Spell This Out They Literally Spelled It Out If Inflation Is 4% 1% Is Normal 1% Is Tariffs This Is My My Implication You know Okay 1% Is Tariffs 1% Is Oil Iran Trump Okay So Trump Is Basically To Blame For 50% And [00:44:02] Speaker ?: And [00:44:02] Speaker 5: Then You Have 1% Is AI That's Great How Interesting Is That That Is Very Cool Okay So The Remaining One Fourth Likely Yeah Reflects Other You know Shocks Price Pressures Have Been Concentrated In A Few Categories But These May Be Broadening That's Not Good It's Important To Ensure That Inflation Pressures Do Not Intensify Or Further Broaden Or Become Embedded In Expectations Well So Far Let me Go Look Really Quick Let's See Here Let's Go Look At The Breakeven Fun U.S. Breakeven Come On Baby Come On So I've Got Dude Yeah They've Plummeted But That Could Be Because The Markets Are Pricing And Basically That We're Going To Get Our Hike So Oh Yeah Dude I Mean We're Looking At Now 3.2 Hikes By September Let me Write That Down That's Not Ideal Okay Here We Go So Inflation Expectations Probe Falling Off Cliff Because Market Prices In 1.13 Hikes Dece Second Hike By March Third Hike By Sep 15 3.19 Now So You know Basically Trump Has Zero Rush To Make Iran Deal No Iran Deal Hike Iran Deal Maybe No Hike Maybe Maybe That's That's Basically Where We Sit Right Now Yeah Let's See Here Inflation Pressure Is Related To The AI Build Out Seem To Persist Despite Some Signs Of Slowing Yeah No That's Not Going Away Energy Related Price Pressure Should Should There It Is Energy Related Price Pressure Should Resolve When The Middle East Conflict Resolves Tariff Effects Should Wane That's Also Bullish Right So This Is Actually Bullish 20 27 On On Inflation So Bullish 20 27 Inflation As Tariffs Lap And Hopefully Iran's Situation Continues To Relax Even if No deal No deal Like You know Saudi Alternatives Like Saudi Alternatives And Trump Promising No Renewed War Okay Inflation Pressures Are Probably Persistent In AI AI Buildout Has Shifted Towards Specific Types Of Investment Putting Upward Pressure Due To Inelastic Supply Financial Conditions Have Tightened A Bit Recently Because Of Lower Equity Prices Higher Rates And A Strong Dollar Tightening Comes Against A Backdrop Of Market Volatility Looking Ahead My Expectation Is That Policies Designed To Boost The Economic Growth Potential Would Continue To Support Productivity Growth And Business Confidence Those Policies Include This Is Very Pro Sort Of Trumpian Big Beautiful Bill Commentary Here I Expect The Labor Market Will Remain Stable And Inflation To Slow Special Factors Holding Inflation Now Are Expected To Gradually Wane Or Unwind Over Time I Expect AI Adoption To Raise Productivity And Put Downward Pressure On Inflation Yeah I Agree With That Over Time The Risk Outlook With The Labor Market Improving Since Last Year I Am More Attentive To The Inflation Side Of Our Mandate Right They're Less Worried About Labor Now Can Envision A Scenario In Which I'll Take A Look At This I Can Envision A Scenario In Which The Effects Of The Middle East Conflict And The Tech Investment Boom Wain Or Unwind Quickly In That Scenario I Would Expect Basically She's She's Literally Telling You Look If The AI Boom Busts Or Middle East Ends Inflation Is Going To Tank Like I Don't Know How Much More Blunt They Could Be So This Would Be I Would Argue Wait Here We Go Uh Uh Very Blunt Uh End War Inflation Plummets AI Bubble Pop Inflation Plummets Right Totally Consistent With What We Believe See A Number Of Risks Uh Including Equity Corrections If AI Returns Fall Short Of Expectations Lower Equity Prices Could Undermine The Resilience Of Consumer Spending Higher Interest Rates Could Further Strain Sensitive Areas Of The Economy I'll Continue To Closely Monitor Monitor Energy [00:50:02] Speaker ?: Energy [00:50:02] Speaker 5: Markets Important Issues I See Conditions In The Energy Market And AI As Two Critical Components Of AI Dude Bro This Letter Just Goes On For Frickin Ever What's Going On Over Here By The Way I Just Want To Take A Quick Look Over Here Quick Check In Okay Alright Cues Have Settled Very Nice Cues Have Relaxed Six Flags Is Up Nine Percent The World Is Healing NVIDIA Is Up Two Crowd Strike Cloud Flare Moving Up Very Good I've Got AMD Up For Broadcom Back To 350 I Got A Line At 355 For It Oh My Gosh We Came In Within A Buck Of That Line Come On Come On Broadcom So Cheap Right Now Oh Yeah Here's That Basket We Literally Talked About This Yesterday Seagate SK Hynix Micron Sandisk I'm Like Buy This Basket Of These Four Right Here All Of Them Are Up Eight To Thirteen Percent Right Now Marvell Is Up Seven Lights Up Ten Let's See Here Teslas Oh Almost At 400 Let's Go App Lovin Has Been Kicking Butt Bitcoin Is Not Yields Are Higher Bloom Energy Thirteen Percent On The Day Wow How low Did It Get Yesterday Oh It Was In The One Nineties IGV IWM How's RSP Doing Right Now Let Let [00:51:28] Speaker ?: Let Let [00:51:28] Speaker 5: Let [00:51:28] Speaker ?: Let Let [00:51:28] Speaker 5: Let Let See Here RSP RSP Uh All Time Highs Yesterday Intraday Intraday All Time Highs Presently Essentially At All Time Highs Oh Well That's Intra Week I'm Sorry Oh No No Okay We're Returning To That Was Probably Thursday Thursday Or Wednesday Of Last Week And This Is The Average Candle Anyway I Think That Was Thursday Was The Low Yeah So Thursday Was The Oh Thursday Was The Low And The High [00:52:00] Speaker 7: That's Wednesday Six Yeah Yeah Thursday No It Was Wednesday [00:52:09] Speaker 5: Ah Whatever It Doesn't Freaking Matter What Day It Was Alright Quick Check Of That Over Back To This [00:52:16] Speaker 6: Back To Reading Boys And Girls Alright [00:52:29] Speaker 5: What Do We Have Here Middle East Conflict Has Disrupted Energy Markets Impairing The Flow Of Oil And Other Commodities Passing Through The Strait Of Hormuz Let's See Let's See Applied Math And Stats Grad From Columbia Experienced Quant Research And Deep Learning You're Always Welcome To Hit Us Up Just Send Another Email Over If You Have Already Emailed Us Just Forward It Again To Staff At Reinvest One Dot Common And I'll Keep An Eye Out On It Today The Middle East Conflict Has Disrupted Energy Markets Impairing The Flow Oil And Other Commodities Passing Through The Strait Of Hormuz Which Accounted For About 20% Of Global Supply Before The Conflict As Tensions Rose Brent Moved Up We Know Before Dropping Sharply That An Agreement Could Be Reached Following Midterms So The Fed Is Literally Watching This Iran Deal Situation Right Price For Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Move To Their High Let's See While The Outcomes Of The Conflict Remain Unknown My Approach Is To Look Through Temporary Energy Driven Inflation When Possible And Remain Alert That The Spreading Into Broader Prices Is The Part That Matters Okay So Let's Let me Pull Something Up Really Quick We'll Listen In Here For A I'm [00:54:10] Speaker ?: I'm [00:54:10] Speaker 8: I'm Told That [00:54:11] Speaker ?: That [00:54:11] Speaker 8: There's A Different They Have These More Corporate Fixers Versus Spies How You Think About For Sovereign Governments And What The Objective That Sarah Is A Spy Was And What She Was Able To Extract From Him These Are Still Big Unknowns [00:54:27] Speaker 4: Indeed When We Come Back This Morning Some New Revenue Numbers From Open AI Surging Growth Mounting Losses We'll Talk About Them Anthropics Opening Up Its IPO I [00:54:36] Speaker 5: Like It When Somebody Makes A Point And Then You Just Say Problem In [00:54:39] Speaker 8: Washington He's Gonna Join Us Next To Discuss Right Here On Open Interest [00:54:43] Speaker 5: Oh Come On Losers Fah It's Fine Uh Okay So What I Really Want To Do Is I Want This Why Do I Not Have Unadjusted Price Change Seasonally Adjusted Price Change But Why Does This Not Give Me From Last Year I Want Last Year's Price Change That's What That's What We Need So Let's Try This One All Right So This Is Unadjusted Indices Seasonally Adjusted Price Changes Yeah They're Not Showing It Compared To Last That's Very Annoying All Right So If I Just Stick With This One And I'll Just Go I'll Just Go With This I Can't Why Not Why Do I Not Have The Year Over Year Comparison In These This Is Stupid Because Then Then We Could Look At How Many How Much This Is Expanding And How Many Categories Is Expanding To To Try That Select Areas All Items City Average No CPI CP Freaking Lie Okay I don't Know why They Make It Hard This Time [00:56:21] Speaker 7: CPI Oh Can I Just [00:56:24] Speaker 5: Maybe We Can Just You Know What I'll Do I'm Just Gonna Let's Just Stick Clod On It Really Quick Yeah That's What We'll Do Cause Then I'm Not Even Gonna Well But They Don't Have It In The Spreadsheet Either I Was Gonna Say I Could Just Go To This But Look They're Not Showing You The Data In Comparison To Last Year Why Are They Not Doing That See Look This Whole Section Is Empty With The Exception Of Like A Couple Little Spots Why Is This Whole Column Missing Like That's The Only One That Comparison To Last Year And They've Rug Pulled Pulled It What The Hell I Don't Maybe I'm Just Looking At The Wrong Place Or Something But That Doesn't Make Sense Yeah Every Comparison Oh Wait Oh Was That The Government Was Shut Down You're Right That's What It Was That's Why It's Gone Damn That's Why We Can't Get That Data I'm Looking At It Like What The Hell Why Is It Blank It's Because The Government Was Shut Down Last Year Because The Fed The Fed Usually Wants To Look And See Like Hey Well How Does This Compare Fah All Right That's Energy Prices May Stay Elevated Okay If Geopolitical Attentions Persist Energy Prices May Stay Elevated In The Near Term Increasing The Risk That Core Inflation May Stay Elevated Because Of The Pass Through Yep Although The U.S. Economy Is Now A Net Exporter We See An Impact From Higher Energy Prices The Recent Deterioration Consumer Sentiment Is Materializing Especially Concerned About The Effects Of Both Side Of A Mandate If There Are Any Further Disruptions Right An Escalation Could Have More Meaningful Effects On Real Activity Because Of The Larger Impact Even With A Quick Resolution It Makes It Take Some Time For Prices To Normalize Oh I Doubt That Let's See Here This Is About Construction That's Fine How Long It Takes The AI Build Out I Expect The AI Shock To Play Out Over Some Time Investments Are Increasingly Financed By External Funds Including Off Balance Sheet Liabilities I'm Also Looking At The Risk Of Financial Stability If AI Revenues Disappoint We May Be In The Early Days When Investment Rises Rapidly While Workers And Firms Determine The Best Uses I Still Agree With That We May Still Be In The Early Days I Do Agree With That But Then That Could Lead To Layoffs Because Once You Figure Out Where To Use It You Know That That That Not Great So Okay High Tech Construction I've Accounted For Law Okay Adoption Is Growing However Use Varies Across Industries I Think There's A Risk That Some Workers Will Be Displaced Even As Others See Productivity Yeah Yeah Totally Totally Expected AI Rebs Have Quickly Been Rising Not Yet Sufficient To Pay For The Expense Of Maintaining Existing AI Models Capital Spending Has Surged Hyperscalers And Other Companies Have Increasingly Been Funding Have Been Sourcing Funds From Credit And Equity Markets Investors Are Seeing Risk In These Investments Costs Have Been Rising That That's The Market Functioning As It Should Okay Prices Of Memory Chips Have Gone Chips AI Related Debt Has Been Growing Rapidly Blah Blah Blah Okay Connections AI Firms Company My Hyperscaler Okay We Seem To Be Concentrated To A Few Large Firms That Provide AI Services Yep This Is True It Is Concentrate Open AI Anthropic Gemini Via Google Meta We Could See A Sharp Correction In Equity Prices Or Reduced Access To Credit If Costs Rise Especially If Sentiment Moves I Mean We've Already Seen That We Have Already Seen Some Of That Reassessment In Recent Weeks Of Equity Price As Equity Prices Have Down C Prices Have So Peaked Though Okay Policy Higher Interest Rates However In Certain Segments Of AI Intensive Sectors That That That's [01:00:59] Speaker ?: That's [01:00:59] Speaker 5: Exactly What They Want To Do They You Know Want To Slow It Down A Little Bit The Durability Of AI Related Demand And The Evolution Of Geopolitical Risks Expand Over Time Could Be Critical In The Months Of Head For Our Policy Stance Yeah Basically She's Saying If The AI Market Keeps Crashing We're Not Going To Hike If There's A Deal With Iran We May Not Need To Hike But It Depends How Fast Oil Prices Fall I Mean It's Pretty Blunt These Are Very Clear Instructions To Donnie T Okay Instructions Clear Let's Pull Up A Second Al Jaze And Just See What's Cooking Here Salt Puts Do Not Expire Worthless If You If The Price Has Fallen You Have To Buy The Stock So You Become A Proud Owner Of A Stock They Wrong Okay This Is No News Let's See The Latest Update Here Yeah Okay That Was The Financial Times Report Alright Well That's Good Alright Let's See What The Economist Has Cooking For Us The Economist Miserable Month For Hedge Funds Yeah It Was Okay Let's See The Hedge Fund Comment Note Here Someone Has To Read Them The Instructions Yeah No Kidding Hedge Funds In November Post Election Market Swings The Affair Everything Has Been Bruising Basically For Hedge Funds Yeah November Has Sucked So Far For Hedgies For Many Funds It Was The Worst Month Since COVID Began The Wobble And Enthusiasm For Sell-off For Tech Stocks Left Wing Brazil Bloomberg Index The Industry Biggest Funds Lost Mine Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah [01:03:20] Speaker ?: Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah [01:03:24] Speaker 5: Blah Blah Blah [01:03:26] Speaker ?: Blah [01:03:26] Speaker 5: Blah Blah Centro Funds Constraints Controlling Their Capital Allocation Among Pods Of Traders Limits Of Losses Multistrat Funds Blah Blah Blah Blah October's Movements Were More Than Enough To Force Liquidations By Investors Had Cooled On Financial Instruments By Enabling The Build Out Of Data Centers By Tech 32% Of Hedge Funds Books Were Exposed To AI Down To 47% Whoa That's A Really Low Exposure So That That's Actually Contrary And Bullish That's Great No Michael The Editing Flow Hasn't Changed With AI Not For Like 90% Of Videos But You Know If You Are Going To Do Like Look At My Last Learjet Video That Is A Totally Different Flow Yeah You Go Watch The Video And You'll See What I Mean Managers Became Timid Funds Which Borrow From Markets As Well As Using Investor Cash Reduce Their Net Leverage This May Reflect More Caution Okay The Episode Raises Questions For The Multi Strap Model This Is More Just About Hedge Funds I Was Hoping To Get A Little Bit More Just On The Eco Let's See Here They're Basically Dunking On The Multi Strat Hedge Fund Strategy Yeah Reduce Net Leverage I Mean It's It's A Great Thing It's An Opportunity Okay So What Do We Have So Here Saw My Email Last Night TBD We Gotta Look At Some Financials Again But Yeah Oh Yeah If You're Not Part Of The Daily Digest Yet Remember You Get This Daily Email Where I'll Talk About You Know Stocks Or Pricing Or You Know Ticker Ideas And Stuff It's Obviously Different From What We Do In The Course Member Live Streams But Yeah If You're Not Part Of It Yet Go To Meet Kevin Dot Com Slash Digest Meet Kevin Dot Com Slash Digest It's Free Just Put In Your Email Here And Then Make Sure You Authenticate Your Email So You'll Get An Email And You Confirm It Might Go To Spam So You Have To Hit Not Spam And Then You Have To Do The Captcha Or Whatever It's Called And Yeah Then You'll Get Those Emails All Right How Are We Cooking Hey The Cues Are Back To Their Open High Let's Go 21% Now On Core Weave You Know What We Should Do Is We Look At The Core Weave Call Briefly I Don't Want To Marry This Call [01:06:37] Speaker 6: Cause I Could Get Carried Away If You Know What I Mean With You Give Me An Earnings Call I Could Get Quite Fun And We Know How To Have A Good Time Around Here All [01:07:01] Speaker 5: Right Earnings Call And Just Beam This Up To [01:07:06] Speaker 7: Us Really Quick [01:07:06] Speaker 5: Okay That Is Going To Be A Core Weave Core Weave Core Weave Earnings Call Okay [01:07:23] Speaker 7: And Let's Just Mark That [01:07:26] Speaker ?: That [01:07:26] Speaker 7: As Okay [01:07:33] Speaker ?: Okay Okay [01:07:35] Speaker 5: Okie Dokey So What I Really Want To Hear Here Is Their Ability To Finance No No Not This I Don't Care About The CFO Here We Go Financing Approach Deliver Value To Customers Underpin Central Building AI Hyperscale Model Financing Financing Okay [01:08:00] Speaker ?: Okay [01:08:00] Speaker 5: Here Looking Ahead We Will Not Use The Unsecured Debt Market To Fund Our Business At Current Yields Nor Do We Need To We Expect To Finance The Majority Of Our Cap X Through Delayed Draw Term Loans To Meet Our Contracts Yeah And Then Also Getting Upfront Commitments Right The Pricing Of These Underline Commitments And Our Proven Ability To Deliver They Can Finance Anywhere To 70 To 100 Percent Of Our Cap X Yeah More Than 75 Percent Of Our Committed Cap X Is Tied To Investment Grade And Enterprise Customers So Basically They Can Finance It Yeah A.K.A. Coreweave Need Not Finance The Big Boys Will Makes Sense Financing So There's That Financing Argument That Makes Sense Economic Approach To Pre-payments Financing Supporting Deployment Financing Model Operating Margins Okay Or Wow Fine Sure That's Fine That's Fine That's Fine What About Commitment Or Like Let's Look At Growth Or Commitments So Perhaps We Could Actually Growth Growth Constrained By Capital Sure Well It's A Capital Intensive Business Parent Parent Level And Secure Debt Primary Sources Oh There It Is There It Is They Literally Just Admitted To My Prediction For The Remain of Our Backlog We Expect To Use Delayed Term Draw Loans As Customer Prepayments And OEM Financing Serve As The Primary Source Of Growth This [01:09:57] Speaker ?: This [01:09:57] Speaker 5: Is What I Said It's Like Like Microsoft You Know Other Other Companies Will Just Finance Them So They Can Continue To Grow Because They Don't Want To Let Them Go Bankrupt Okay What About Commit Commitments Any Expanding Commitments Commitments Future Commitments This Is All Just Their Ability To Actually Keep Funding What About Expand Like New Partnerships Expanding The Platform Wave Is One Example Expanding Expanding Margins Expand Our Footprint Expanding Sequentially Expanding Footprint Who Is That With The Last One Canada Indonesia That These Are Just Locations Okay Yeah I Mean So This This Is All Less Worrisome And I Think That's Why Core Weave Is Cranking So Much I Mean This Was This Was Predicted So Core Weave Now Let's Go I Want To Kind Of See How Where Are The Cues Keep The Cues Up Here It's Almost Up 2% Right Now And Then You've Got This Basket Right Here That's Just Cranking Which Is Your Sandus Micron SK Hynek CA Very Good Yeah Enbus Should Move As Well Okay Cool So Let's Do Kind Of A Little Breakdown Here Of Everything We've Got A Little Some Some Let Me Just Let's Do This First I Had to Close This Door [01:11:59] Speaker 7: Let me Listen In Here For A Sec [01:12:01] Speaker 9: Move Right On Into Contempt And Democrats Have Got To Be Really Prepared To Start Enforcing Their Legislative Prerogatives Here And Oh By The Way That's Bad News For Private Enterprise Because If The Administration Is Not Going To Co-operate The Only Target That You Have Left That You Can Really Compel Co-operation And Subpoenas And Witnesses And Documents Is Private Enterprise Are CEOs Are These Companies You [01:12:23] Speaker 10: Know It Makes Me Wonder How Much NVIDIA Is One Of The Most Important Companies In The World Obviously That Makes The Man Who Runs It Pretty Busy As You Might Expect How Much Time Does He Have To Spend With His Lawyers Now [01:12:35] Speaker 9: He Should Spending Every Minute Of Every Day Frankly And That's The Question About Leadership And Why Not Having A Succession Plan Not Having Top All Right [01:12:44] Speaker 5: Boring All Right Let's Get Into The Coverage Okay Let's See What Is Cooking So That Was Boring That Was Boring Did We Let's See We Got Besant Going To Bases That Was The One Thing I Think We Didn't Pull Up Yet Let [01:13:25] Speaker ?: Let [01:13:25] Speaker 7: Let Let See Where We Have That Oh No Here It Is Okay We Do Have That Yeah We Just Didn't Talk About That Yet But That's Okay We Will Touch On That [01:13:33] Speaker 5: In Just A Sec Let's See Saudi Arabia We Got This We Looked Here Wappos Got Nothing The Rubial Letter Is A Problem Because Really What You Have Is You Have The AI Boom And Then You Have Iran And That Goes Into The Fed Decision [01:14:13] Speaker 7: Okay Let's See Oops [01:14:23] Speaker 5: The Seven Conditions I Want Those Up As Well Which We've [01:14:39] Speaker 7: Got Those Okay Then Speech Hedge Funds [01:14:49] Speaker 5: Okay All right Let's Cover What We Got Here Okay The Federal Reserve Just Wrote Us A Letter Being Very Blunt That These Are The Two Things That Matter For The Entire Economy Right Now And What You Should Expect With Interest Rate Hikes I'll Show You What The Market's Expecting Right Now But We've Also Got To Break Down What The Problems Are Here And What The Fed As Bluntly Told Us And What They're Basically Signaling To Donald Trump They're Kind of Being A Little Blunt Here We'll Break It All Down First You Need To Know What Current Market Expectations Are This Line Chart Represents Inflation Expectations Basically What Does The Market Think Inflation Is Going To Be In Five Years The Closer This Gets To 2% The Better And You Hike Rates Last Time This Is Actually Where They Chose To Hold But We Got This Implication That We Were Going To Get A Hike In December The Market Believes It The Market Right Now Is Pricing In An Over 100% Chance That We Get A Hike In December Pricing In 1.13 Hikes The Second Hike Coming In March Third Hike Coming Now By September 15th With Had To Digest A Big Catalyst Great We Got To Go From Pricing In A Hike In December And Then Maybe One September Of 2027 To Also Now Pricing One In In March And If You Think We Actually Just Had A Massive Amount Of Catalyst That Occurred Right In Succession We Had Donald Trump Threatening To Obliterate Iran Again To Hope That An Iran Deal Would Happen To An Iran Deal Not Happening To The Election To CPI To Now Markets Having To Price In This Next Rate Hike When You Put All Of Those Catalysts Together You Have One Heck Of A Bad Setup For The Last Few Weeks Of Catalyst That's A Lot Of Pain The Market Has Had To Absorb Now Interestingly We Talked With Course Members About This This Morning Mind Are What Matters Is We Talked About This With Course Members This Morning Is We Are Now Shifting From A Period Of High Catalysts Which Is Generally A Period Of High Volatility And High Risk Of Price Declines To A Period Of Low Catalysts Which Basically Is Usually A Good Time For Markets Now No Guarantees But We Don't Really Outside Of ISM's PMI's The PPI On On Friday Which We Think Can Really Only Give Us Good News Because The Bad News Is Already Priced In Outside Of That And A Little Bit Of Fed Commentary Which All The Fed Commentary We Basically Going To Expect To Hear For The Next Month We Literally Have A Letter From The Federal Reserve Right Here We Have All Of It Essentially We're Going To Break It Down Right Now All Of It We'll Make It Very Simple The Point Is All The Bad Is In Okay The Expectations Right Now Are That We Are Not Getting A Deal With Iran The Best Time To Get A Deal Was Before The Election I've Said This Many Times Before I Believe That The Best Time To Get A Deal Was Before The Election Because That Was A Pressure Point People Are Like Oh Iran Will Never Go For That But My Thought Was That Iran Would Actually Want A Deal Before The Election Because Before The Election There Was Pressure After The Election The Pressure On Trump Goes Down So The Markets Like Calsi I Like Tracking When Markets Think The U.S. Iran Is The U.S. And Iran Are Going To Have A Nuclear Deal You Can See A Deal Before March 1st 2027 Has Fallen To Just 15% And Just In The Last Two Days While We've Had Some Volatility In The October 2027 Pricing Contract Which Is A Little Bit Looser Gooser Here Just Look Because Of An Axios Letter And Talk From Marco rubio Break This Down And Try To Understand This For A Moment But My Point Is Markets Are Now In This Position Where We're Saying Hey Look We've Kind Of Priced In That Donald Trump's No New Forever Wars Has Basically Just Given Us A New Forever War And That's Not Ideal But The Biggest Thing That People Care About Right Now With This Iran War Is Oil Prices And What's Happening In Spite Of The War Saudi Arabia Has Just Hit It's Highest Level Of Oil Production Since The Days Before The War Began At The End Of February Saudi Production In October Was Higher Than The Entire Two Months Leading Up To The War Which Is Awesome If You Look At Total Oil Flows Look At Total Oil Flows They've Been Rising And Rising And Rising So Why Have Oil Prices Come Down So Much Recently Well One Of The Reasons Oil Prices Have Come Down So Much Bond Markets Close Today By The Way One Of The Reasons We've Come Down Off Of 117 Yeah Oil Prices Are Up Today Because Of The Rubio Letter We'll Talk About That In Why Are We Down So Much Well We're Down So Much Because Donald Trump's Argument Is We Don't Need To Attack Iran In Fact We Don't Need To Do Anything We'll [01:21:14] Speaker ?: We'll [01:21:14] Speaker 5: Just Sit On Our Hands And Do Nothing That's Good And It's Bad It's Good Because It suggests That Oil Prices Have Peaked It's Bad Because It Suggests Donald Trump's Urgency To Make A Deal Has Evaporated And It Sounds Like He Wasn't Very Pressed To Make A Deal Before The Election Because You [01:21:33] Speaker 6: Know All Of A sudden He's Like Oh I Didn't Realize People Actually Would Care About The Iran War For The Election I Guess I Screwed Up Yeah No Duh [01:21:44] Speaker 5: Quick Note The Video Is Brought To You By Our Paid Sponsor Of Our Startup Reinvest They Sponsor Reinvest Get A Free $25 When You Sign Up And Make Your First Trade With Kalshi At Kalshi Dot Com Slash Or Meet Kevin Okay So Now Going Back To This This Is Really Important Because This Is What The Federal Reserve Cares About But To Understand This Chart You Have To Understand What Rubio Said Right Here Because Rubio Gives Us Insight Into This Iran Deal Now Iran Today Has Also Made More Commentary That Hey Look If You Guys Attack Us We'll Go Attack You In The United Kingdom We'll Go Attack Your Bases We'll Go Attack You Because They Are Literally Now The U.S. Is Now To Some Extant Panicking To Where Besson Has Apparently Been Moved To A Military Base Because The Iranians Are Threatening His Life And His Home Isn't Safe Anymore He's Literally Had To Move Out Of His Home Because Per The New York Times Citing Officials With The Matter U.S. Officials Have Concluded That The Iranians Have Been Walk Around With A Gun Now Everywhere You Go What Is The World Coming To But This Comes At The Same Time That The Financial Times Argus Hey Remember That Plot Where They Just Let Those Bombers Go On Bail Yeah More Of That Is Going To Happen In Fact The Wall Street Journal Argus That Threats Around The World Against U.S. Bases Are Increasing From Bases In Germany To The United Kingdom Because It's Now So Much Easier To Just Launch A Drone And Attack These Bases So Iran Is Essentially Digging In And Saying Look If You Want To Mess Around With Us We'll Just Sleeper Cell Attack You All Over More So Than Anything In The Past Well That's Not Great So What Is The Current Position On Iran By The U.S. Administration And How Does That Affect The Federal Reserve Well That's Exactly What We Got To Talk About Take A Look At This Marco Rubio Yesterday In A Closed Door Meeting With Foreign Ministers At The G7 This Is Not Good The President Does Not Have Two Options This Is Not Sign A Peace Deal Or Go Back To War We Actually Have A Third Option Which Is Do Nothing Yeah That Sucks That Sucks For The Iranians But It Also To Some Extent Sucks For Us I'll Explain So The Iranians Here's A Professor In Iran And So They Give Us I Think This Is A Fair Point Of View And This Sort Of Is Reiterated By The Economic Pressure Alright Here We Go The Economic Situation Is Very Bad Says This Professor In Tehran This Is At The University Of Tehran Things Are Available And Imported Goods Are Here But They Are Very Expensive Because The Hardship Is Not Just About The War But It's About The Pressure From Inflation Caused By Sanctions And The Sort Of Blockade That You You Know Curtain Or Whatever We're Calling It Now Operation Iron Something The Land Blockade Before The Land Blockade We Already Basically Had A Land Blockade Because We've Had Three Blockades On Iran The Naval Blockade In The Strait Of Hormuz It's Basically Stopped All Older Shipping Through Hormuz Then You've Got The Economic Sanctions You Want To Do Business With Iran You're Going To Get Sanctioned By The U.S. So That's Left A Lot Of Aircraft And Trucks Stuck At Borders Or Not Able To Really Flow Into And Out Of Iran Without Paying You Know Heavy Risk Premiums Now The Third Thing That's Happening Is Actually Trying To Blockade The Other Routes With The U.S. Military When Now CENTCOM Has Created A Department For Doing Exactly This Including Potentially Blocking Shipments Going Up Through The Caspian Sea Which Is Important Because Now You're Blocking Them In The South In The Southwest At The Strait Of Hormuz Now Potentially Blocking Them From The North In Their Trade With Russia But Then You're Also Blockading Their Political Or Their Neighbor Land Roots Into Turkey Pakistan Afghanistan Whatever Right Iraq This Sucks So They Make It Very Clear That Like Yeah The Economy Is In A Bad State But The Iranians Are Also You Know They Want Their Seven Conditions So What Are The Seven Conditions End The War Give Us Our Frozen Money Back Lift The Blockade Lift Sanctions Compensate Us For The War Get Your Troops Out Of The Region And Let Us Fulfill Our God Given Right To Enrich Uranium Now We Keep Getting Headlines About How Oh But You Know They Don't Want To Remove Their Highly Enriched Uranium Out Of The Country That's Old News We [01:26:54] Speaker ?: We We [01:26:54] Speaker 5: Already Believe That What's More Likely To Happen Is That The Iranians Will Actually Just Agree To Dilute Their Highly Enriched Uranium And We Did Get The Bashir Nuclear Plant Just Inspecited By The IAEA But That's An Energy Production Facility Not A You Know Enriching Facility That's Just Where You Create Nuclear Power Different Okay So That's Kind Of The Status On Iran Where We're Stuck Nowhere Where Rubio Is Just Like Look We'll Just Wait We'll Just Keep This Blockade Going We'll Just Do Nothing Because We Won't Do A Stupid Deal Rubio Went On To Say That The U.S. Is Imposing Devastating Costs On The Iranian Economy And Donald Trump Is Under No False Time Pressure This Eventually Though The Economy Even In That Scenario Gets Over It Eventually You Look And Say Whatever I Guess It's Just Another Forever War And I Guess We'll Just Have To Deal With It And So My Opinion Has Been Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Every Dip Possible Now We're Going To Talk About The Fed In Just A Moment But One Of The Things I Even Talked About Yesterday Was Buying What I Call A Basket Of The 200 Day Moving Average Stocks Take A Look At These Today Sandisk Up 16% That Was One Of Them Micron 12% SK Hynix 10% Seagate 11% I Mean Marvell Is Up 12% Lumentum Is Up 15% This Is A Broad Based Now Recovery On This Tech Sector Which Has Honestly Gotten Ridiculously Oversold AMD Down 7% The Q's Are Now Up 2.5% I Expect This Is Going To Continue Even If We Don't Get An Iran Deal And Even If We Get Fed Rate Hikes Because Now We've Already Priced In The Rate Hikes We Priced In The Rate Hikes We Priced In We're Not Going To Get A Deal We Priced In The Hot CPI PPI For Friday Is Basically Already Priced In We'll Live Stream It On Friday It's A Coupon Expiration Day But It's Basically Already Priced In Okay So So What Do You Have Now Well Now You Have The Federal Reserve Basically Writing A For Supervision At The Federal Reserve For Banking Supervision Says That At The Council Of Foreign Relations The Following First We Have Two Issues We Have AI And Geopolitics Those Are The Two Things Affecting Our Mandate She Literally Says I Am Monitoring Expectations About AI And Energy Prices It's Those Two Things That's Literally What We Drew Here Okay So These Are The Two Issues So Rubio Do Nothing Okay So The Only Thing That Can Really Drive Oil Prices Now Is Supply Needs To Come Online During A Do Nothing This Is A Less Violent Up Rally Than If You Had An Iran Deal In My Opinion If You Had An Iran Deal The Stock Market Would Be At 800 On The Nasdaq 100 Via The Q Q Really Rapidly You Have This People Just Margin Up And Go Crazy Speaking Of Margin Hedge Fund Margin Has Tanked Hedge Fund Exposure To AI Has Gone Down To Just 32% Of Hedge Fund Books Exposed To AI Down From 47% In June That That [01:30:25] Speaker ?: That That [01:30:25] Speaker 5: Is A Huge Reduction Just For A Percentage Reduction There That Is A Reduction Of 32 Is The New Number 47 Was The Old Number That Is A Reduction Of 32% That's Interesting That That Matches Exactly But Basically Their Exposure To AI Has Been Cut By A Third And Their Leverage Has Fallen To Lows In Fact Last Week We Saw That Hedge Fund Leverage Was De-leveraging Was In The 99th Percentile Over The Last Five Years In Other Words They're Like Uh No We Gotta Sell Because They're Panicking I Mean The Economist Is Literally Bagging On Hedge Fund Multistrat Strategies Suggesting That These Strategies Are Failing Hedge Funds And They're Going To End And That This Is A Strategy Popularized By Kenny G At Citadel And It's Over Everybody's Doing It Now And It's Over And You Guys Are Dumb And You're Getting Screwed It's Basically What The Economist Just Said Kind Of Crazy But Again You Know You Get A If You Slowly Get Oil Online You Could Slowly Get This Stock Market And The Economy To Recover Even Though No Progress Is Coming Out Of Iran Okay Now Quick Reminder If I Haven't Remember To Go To Reinvest1.com See Everything That's Included When You Use Code PP In Honor Of Jensen Actually Sorry In Honor Of PPI On Friday The Code Does Expire In Two Days And 14 Hours All Right Learn More At Reinvest1.com For All That's Included Let's Go Back To This Speech Though Because This Tells Us A Lot So The Speech Basically Tells Us That The Is I Want To Talk About Her 25 25 25 So This Is Her Point Of View On Inflation She Argues That Inflation Right Now If We Use Ballpark 4% I'm Oversimplifying With 4% But If We Ballpark Use 4% She Argues That One Percentage Point Of That Is Made Up By Just Regular Sort Of Everyday Inflation To Where You Know If You Have 2% Inflation That Might Be 50% Of Inflation Would Be The Normal Sort Of Inflation Right She Says That About 25% Or 1% In This Case Is Tariffs You Could Just Pure Blame Trump For That And Then 1% Is Iran And Oil And 1% Is AI So Basically You've Got 25% 25% 25% For 25% You Know For Breakdown For Inflation Her Argument Is Basically If Could Come Down In Fact She Says It Right Here Tariff Effects Should Wane Going Forward That's Good For 2027 Energy Price Pressures Should Unwind When The Middle East Conflict Resolves So You Literally Have The Federal Reserve Telling Donald Trump Bro Get With The Program Get A Deal With Iran We Are Paying Attention To The Deal With Iran Because We Could Literally See Energy Prices Tank If And Then Maybe We Don't Have To Hike Interest Rates At The Same Time As We're Worried About These Energy Prices Financial Conditions Have Tightened Because The Stock Market Has Sold Off Now Obviously If The Stock Market Rallies Back You're Pretty Much Just Guaranteeing That Fed Rate Hike But That Fed Rite Hike Essentially Already Priced In So An Iran Deal Would Just Be A Bonus Sweetener At This Point But We're Kind Of Over It It's Like No Trump Gave Us Another Forever War Great And We're Going To Sit Here And Do Nothing There's No Urgency Rubio Just Told You There's No Urgency This Is Why The Deal On Calci The Odds Are Falling Or The Deal Odds Are Falling Not A Surprise So What Do We Have Here The Risks Now Donald Trump Doesn't Suggest That We're Going To Return To War Now He Could Be Lying But It Doesn't Seem Like There's An Appetite To Really Return To War Especially With A Democratic Congress Coming In So I Don't Think Going Back To A Really Big Middle East Conflict Is Likely Instead Listen To This Our Risks On The Labor Market Even Though It's Improving Suggest That We Have Some Luxury To Focus On Inflation Now But There Are Reasons To Keep An Eye On The Labor Market Because AI Could Make The Labor Market Roll Over More On The Labor Market In Just A Moment I Want To Hit This I Can Envision A Scenario In Which The Effects Of The Middle East Conflict And Tech Investment Boom Wain Or Unwind Quickly In This Scenario I Would Expect A Timlier Return To Core PCA In Our Inflation Target Okay Let's Explain That Because This Is Pretty Important This Is Basically The Federal Reserve Telling You That If The Bubble Burst Of AI Because We All Expect It's A Little Bubble Right Now I Actually Think It's Going To Turn Into A Big Bubble In Other Words I Still Think The Big Bubble Is Ahead Of Us Not Behind Us Like The True Euphoria Still Ahead Of Us Not Behind Us We're At A Cheap Place Right Now In The Market That's Why We Keep Buying I Keep Sending Buy Alerts I'm Buying This But Anyway So And Then I Tell You Exactly Which Stocks I'm Buying Over In Reinvest One Including There's One Stock Right Now That I Think Is Selling For Like A 15% Literal Wedge Deal Discount I'm Not Like Future Valuing This I Literally Think Today It Is Very Rare That You See These Arbitrage Opportunities And So I've Been Buying The Crap Out Of That Too Anyway So Basically Two Bubbles Bubble Number One Is AI Bubble Collapse These Are The Two Things The Fed Cares About I Should Really Kind Of Draw Like A Separate Line Over Here The Second Thing That The Fed Really Cares About Is An Iran Deal You Know This Is This Is What The Fed Cares About Okay In Both Of These Scenarios They Expect CPI Or Their Version Of CPI Which Is Called PCE To Plummet Now I Don't Think This Is Going To Happen Anytime Soon This AI Bubble In Fact I'll Post A Than It Appears I Think A Lot Of People Are Way Too Bearish On The Santhropic IPO The Iran Deal Is Probably Not Going To Happen Anytime Soon But If It Does It's Just Pure Upside And This Is Where The In To That Be Great Then You Don't Have To Hike That's Basically What She's Telling You Bro If We Don't Get A Deal We're Hiking If We Get A Deal We Don't Have To Hike That Be Great But Anyway Obviously There Are Risks If The Stock Market Collapses Because That Affects Consumer Spending Why The Wealth Effect Old News We All Know That Already She Also Says That There Has Been Optimism That A Deal Could Be Reached On Iran Following The Midterms But So Far No Deal This Rubio Letter Hurts This Potential For A Deal So Don't Get Too Excited About That Her Approach Is When Possible You Look Through Energy Driven Inflation This Is Now Like The Third Or Fourth Time In Her Letter That She's Basically Like Yo Bro Trump If You Get Us A Deal We Don't Have To Hike I Don't Think She Could Be More Frickin Blunt Anyway It Doesn't Look Like We're Getting A Deal Any Time And She Even Does Acknowledge That Even If There's A Quick Resolution In The Middle East It May Take Some Time For Energy Prices To Normalize I Disagree With That I [01:38:12] Speaker ?: I [01:38:12] Speaker 5: Think Energy Like Says Here Is That We Don't Know Yet When Workers Are Going To Get Replaced Because She Thinks Literally Her Words We May Still Be In The Early Days Totally Agree Now She's Particularly Talking About Where You Know People Are Still Adopting AI They're Like Wow This Has Got Really Good I Agree How Do We Use This How Can We Be More Productive With This How Can We And So At Some Point In The Future Yes AI Can Replace Drops That's The Labor Recession That Can Come In The Future But I Don't Think It's Close There's No Sign It's Close Right Now Which Is Bullish Okay Now Also Acknowledges That In Recent burys As Stocks Have Fallen Financial Conditions Have Tightened She Actually Sees That As A Good Thing Because It Means The Market Is Being More Discerning Now A Lot Of People Are Like Oh But What About Core Weave Well If You've Listened To What I Said Over The Past Three Days Or Four Days As Core Weave Has Fallen I Made Some Comments About Core Weave Because Core Weave Earnings Were Coming Up And What I Said Is You Got To Stop Worrying About Core Weave Financing At Deploy The GPU And Microsoft Is Like Yeah No Problem Here Go We'll Put It As A Lease On Our Balance Sheet Or Not On Our Balance Sheet It'll Turn Into An Investment Expense All Of It's A Little Looney How It Works But The Point Is Why People Are Like Kevin Why Is Core Weave Up You Know Whatever It Is Today 22% Well I'll Tell You Why It's Up 22% It's Finally Popping Over Here Because What I said Core Weave Was Likely To Do Is Literally What They Said Right Here In Their Earnings Call We Will Not Use Unsecured Debt To Fund Our Business At Current Yields Nor Do We Need To We Expect To Finance The Majority Of Our Remaining Cap X Through Backlog And Delayed Term Loans So Basically Loans That They Already Have Or By Relying On The Cap X Cycle From Investment Grade And Enterprise Customers What Does That Mean In English Well Here's Just Another Part Of Their Earnings Call Where They Explain It To You In English We Expect To Leverage Our Delayed Term Draw Loans As Flying F What Market Rates Are Right Now We're Not Going To Borrow At Those Rates We Got Plenty Of Money Coming In From The Homies At MSFT And Then People Are Like Oh My Gosh So You're Saying They've Hit A Bottom Yeah Basically But I mean This This Was Obvious Okay So Now The Question Is What [01:41:24] Speaker ?: What [01:41:24] Speaker 5: Does The Fed Think About That Well Honestly I Think Very Small Portion Of Where The Federal Reserve Head Is On AI I Think They Look At AI And They Say Look The Stock Market Is Reacting And The Funding Market Is Reacting To AI The Way It Should When There's Risk Rates Go Up Credit DeFault Swaps Skyrocket They've Peaked Now Credit Default Swaps Just Tanked On Core Weave They're Down On Meta They're Down On That's A Leading Indicator That The Market Can Relax And Rebound That's Really Good Small Portion Of What The Federal Reserve Deals With Here The Bigger Portion Of The Fed Is Basically Saying Look You Get An Iran Deal We Don't Have To Hike But Do Watch The Labor Market Because Yes The Labor Market Has Improved Which Does Give Us The Latitude To Hike The Reason For Overall Are Down That Is A Good Thing But It Doesn't Necessarily Mean It's Going To Stay That Way Forever So You Kind Of Still Have To Have One Eye On The Labor Market Kevin Warsh Told Us In His Last Presser He Said Look I'm Going To To The Labor Market Meeting I Think He Said On November 14th I Think It Was Yeah Saturday The 14th It May Been The 16th Monday Anyway He's Going To Go Sit On The Labor Market Task Force And That's Going To Be His Only Way To Argue Don't Hike In December Is That For Some Reason He Sees Weakness In The Labor Market It's Unlikely We're Going To Get Bad News Out Of That That's Like Oh We Need To Hike More It's More Like If Anything Warsh Us When We Put All Of These Pieces Of The Puzzle Together We Can Actually See AI Is Not Indicative Of Canary In The Coal Mine Bubbling Out Yet In Fact Anthropic Is Now Oversubscribed Why Because They Priced It Right So They Priced It Right When You Price An IPO Correctly Guess What Happens You Now Seeing Their Revenue Skyrocket 50% In A Frickin Quarter Which Means They Are Now 40 Billion Of ARR And They Are Underwriting At 1.25 Trillion Dollars And So People See Anthropic As More Valuable Because Their ARR Is Like Double That So You Got A Floor On AI You Got A Floor On Core Weave You Got People Relaxing In The Credit Default Swap Market You Got All The Bad Catalyst Behind Us You Literally Have The Fed Saying Bro If You Guys Do A Deal We Don't Have To Hike Rubio Is Like We're Not Going To Do A Deal Instead We're Going To Go Put Besson In Hiding So Now The Market Is Like All Right [01:44:26] Speaker 1: How Much Worse Can I [01:44:42] Speaker 2: Am With You Here We Go Come Push Buy The Dip Buy The Dip Here We Go Push Buy The Dip Buy The Dip Here We Go Push Buy The Dip Buy The Dip Here We Go Come Push Oh My God What's Happening [01:44:59] Speaker 3: First Of all All This Whiting By Wall Street Is Making Me Stick 140% Of GameStop Was Short GameStop Was Short Short You Can't Allow Wall Street To Short 75% Of It Crush These Companies Into The Dirt Thousands Of Stocks Into The Dirts Then When The Individual Makes Money Everyone Is Entrepreneurs I Have A Kid Who Bought A House Pay $50,000 And Bought A House After Decades Of The Shorts You Have To Accept The Fact That Dib [01:45:32] Speaker 2: Find Dib Here We Go Push Find Dib Here We Go Push Find Dib Here We Go Push Oh My God What's Happening Here We Go Push [01:45:46] Speaker ?: Find Dib Find Dib Here We Go Push Push Push Find Dib Here We Go Push Find Dib Find Dib [01:45:56] Speaker 2: Here We Go [01:45:57] Speaker ?: Push Oh My God What's Happening There's A Lot Of Power In The People Can Get Together In Subreddit Think It's Really Funny That The GameStop Stock Is Going Up And Just A Check The Much In That Way There's 20,000 People Live In A Discord Who Are Spamming Rocket Emojis Yelling Go To The