Texas Republican ex-judge explains his vote for Talarico

[0:00] Some Texas Republicans, as you just heard from Ed, are crossing party lines to cast ballots for [0:04] Democrat James Tallarico, a notable move in a state long dominated by the GOP. Our next guest [0:11] is one of those crossover Republicans. Glenn Whitley is a former Tarrant County, Texas judge. [0:17] Sir, thank you so much for being with us. You've said that you would proudly support [0:21] conservative candidates on the ballot, but you will not vote for Ken Paxton. Why? [0:26] Well, Boris, thank you for having me on today. I believe him to be the most corrupt [0:33] politician that Texas has ever seen. One of your recent people online said this was all hearsay. [0:40] It's not hearsay. He was charged with security violations. His senior staff turned him into the [0:46] FBI, alleging bribery and abuse of office. He was impeached by a Texas Republican-controlled [0:56] House of Representatives by over 80%. His wife filed divorce papers because of biblical reasons. [1:05] And that's just a few of the things. These are not hearsay. These are facts. And so I knew that I [1:11] could not support Ken Paxton when we came out of the primary. I did sit down and talk with James [1:19] Tallarico. And after spending some time with him, I feel like he will make us an excellent United States [1:27] Senator. Wow. I'm curious about your thoughts regarding the chance that if Tallarico wins, [1:36] the Senate could be in Democratic control. Is that something that you are concerned about at all? [1:42] Because that is something that we've heard over and over again from Republicans who support Paxton, [1:46] including his estranged wife, who want to support the party and are putting the party over the [1:52] candidate. You don't have concerns? I do not have concerns. Again, I have talked with James. [1:58] You've heard a lot of stuff from both sides on this campaign. I've talked with James. He has never [2:06] supported and never will support a transgender surgery for minors. That was the key hurdle that I [2:13] needed to get over. Once I got past that, I talked with him about the border. He believes in a [2:18] closed border, strongly closed border. He believes in keeping promises to our seniors regarding social [2:25] security benefits. And he believes that we need to do something with the deficit. And those are all [2:31] things that I feel are key priorities for this next Senate. I believe he'll go up there and vote [2:38] the way he feels like the Texans want him to vote and won't just fall in line with, you know, with the [2:46] other Democrats or with other folks. I wonder what you think of President Trump recently talking about [2:52] that Senate race, saying that if Paxton loses, it would be because of Ken, because of weak and ineffective [3:00] political hacks like Cornyn and Karl Rove. Do you think that Cornyn, perhaps more forcefully backing [3:08] Paxton, may have changed your mind at all? I believe that John Cornyn is a man of integrity and character. [3:16] And that is the reason that a lot of folks will not pull that lever for Ken Paxton. And I don't fault [3:24] him one bit for that. Wow. I also understand that you are leaning toward voting for Gina Hinojosa, [3:33] the Democrat who's running for governor over Greg Abbott, who's running for a fourth term. [3:39] Can you walk us through your thinking there? It used to be that, you know, I've been a lifelong [3:45] Republican and it used to be that Republicans believed in local control over the last several [3:51] years. Our state leadership has done everything they can to take local control away from [3:57] the local elected officials and center it in Austin. We have 254 counties. We have thousands [4:04] of cities, over a thousand different school districts. We're not all the same. And local [4:09] control is, I believe, critically important to doing that. You've seen Abbott basically [4:17] take contributions from someone out of Pennsylvania for the voucher program. And then he turned around and [4:23] gave a billion dollars worth of our taxpayer money to vouchers this last session. The data centers, [4:29] he's taken millions of dollars from people who support the data centers. And, you know, even though [4:36] he put a moratorium over data centers when he, when it became such a political issue, prior to that, [4:44] the rumors were is he was going to have a special session and prohibit, that would prohibit local [4:49] people and local elected officials from being able to have a say in what those data centers were going [4:56] to be able to do. What I believe is local control is the best. And that's the reason why I'm having [5:04] a lot of concerns about Abbott and what he's doing to that local control within the state of Texas. [5:10] The Texas Senate race is shattering records. The political battle has seen about 600 million dollars [5:15] worth of campaign ads since the start of 2025, making it the costliest Senate race in U.S. history. [5:21] Meantime, new polling shows Democrat James Tallarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by seven [5:26] points among likely voters. Keep in mind, Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. [5:33] CNN's Ed Lavender is live for us in Allen, Texas. Ed, how are these two campaigns feeling on the eve of the [5:38] election? I think it's probably pretty safe to say, Boris, that everybody is extremely nervous about [5:45] how this is going to play out on Election Day. So far, more than 7.7 million Texans have already [5:52] voted. They took advantage of the two weeks of early voting. And what we are hearing from Republicans is [5:57] that they are hoping for a large turnout on Election Day. In fact, many consultants and Republican experts [6:04] that we've been talking to are concerned about the levels of Republican participation so far. And a lot [6:10] of that has to do with Ken Paxton's checkered political career here in the state. We've been [6:17] asking voters that we've met at the polls about how they are balancing Ken Paxton's track record [6:23] and the history of controversy that has followed him. This is what some of his supporters told us. [6:28] Controversy, the kind of the scandals that have kind of plagued him, has that ever turned you off on him? [6:35] You know, yeah, it gives me pause. But, you know, we're, you know, that's his personal life. [6:41] He fights for Texas, and that's what we want. We want Texas to stay red. We want Texas to be safe. [6:47] We want our kids to be safe. So that's mainly what I'm voting for. And you can look past the rest. [6:53] I can look past the rest. Yes, I can. It's all bogus. I don't know him at a personal level, [7:00] but they've never presented any evidence of anything. It's all based on hearsay. So [7:06] hearsay is what it is. Do you think this race is close? My polls, yeah. But in reality, I don't [7:15] think so. I think Texas is going to stay red. And Boris, that defection or, well, you know, [7:24] obviously, Ken Paxton has some support there among Republicans. But there's also been [7:28] a large number of high profile Republican former office holders, current office holders, [7:35] who are either not voting or have endorsed James Tallarico in this race. And that is what's giving [7:41] a lot of Republicans pause in this state about exactly how this is going to go on Election Day. [7:47] And of course, James Tallarico making the most of this, using a lot of those that Republicans support, [7:53] trying to extend an olive branch to those independent Republican voters to get them to come over [7:57] to his side. Brian, we've seen polls be dead wrong before. Why should we trust them this time around? [8:04] Well, it is healthy to be skeptical about every individual poll you see. [8:08] Polls are a snapshot in time and they can be outdated by the time they are released. [8:12] But when done correctly, polls can be remarkably accurate. It is scientifically based. And [8:18] this year, virtually all the polls are signaling a midterm meltdown for the GOP. [8:23] You know, if you picture a weather vane, all the polls taken together are like the wind, [8:27] and it's basically all blowing in a leftward direction. But as with any weather forecast, [8:32] the devil can be in the details and it can be really hard to get the exact details right. [8:37] So here's a couple of things to keep in mind. People tend to remember big polling misses, [8:41] and there were several of those in 2024. But in the Trump era, those polling errors have mostly [8:46] been during presidential cycles. The polling during midterm election years has actually been more [8:52] accurate. And second, there are different types of polls. There are the media polls we dissect here [8:56] on TV. CNN shows high quality polls from the New York Times and CNN and other outlets. But there's [9:02] also private polling done by campaigns and outside groups. And those private polls are what are driving [9:08] GOP spending decisions. So when we see ad dollars moving to redder areas as Republicans try to shore up [9:14] vulnerable candidates, what that indicates is that the private polling seems to be matching the public [9:19] polling. And again, all blowing in the same direction generally. [9:22] And Brian, pollsters have made efforts to refine their methodology to try to make their predictions [9:29] more accurate given those recent misses, right? Definitely. I mean, that's the interesting thing [9:34] about this. Polling groups pour over the data after every election, and they're constantly making [9:38] adjustments so that they're fully representing the entire population. Errors still happen, right? [9:43] These are humans trying to measure other humans. So it's complicated. And it's really actually [9:48] getting harder over the years because people are refusing to pick up the phone and answer surveys. [9:53] In the cell phone age, that's actually become more and more of a challenge. [9:57] This year, there's another challenge. There's a huge enthusiasm gap. [10:00] We can see it not just in polling, but also in the early vote totals. [10:03] Here's what New York Times chief elections analyst Nate Cohn said about that. He said, quote, [10:07] In this cycle, Democrats are once again responding to our polls [10:10] at a much higher rate than Republicans are. And again, this has been an issue all throughout the Trump [10:15] era where many Trump fans don't want to participate in the polls. Maybe they don't trust the pollsters. [10:20] And so their voices are not always measured. Pollsters do account for that, however, [10:24] with something called waiting. They do make adjustments behind the scenes. And it is possible, [10:29] actually, and Nate Cohn alluded to this in his column, that maybe the pollsters have actually [10:33] overcorrected in ways that make the Democrats actually look less strong than they are going into [10:40] tomorrow night. And again, the beauty of that, Boris, is what you've been saying all afternoon. [10:44] We're going to know for sure in a little more than a day. So we will actually be able to compare the [10:48] results to the polls. There could be a polling error that benefits Republicans. There could be an [10:52] error that benefits Democrats. More likely, some polls will turn out to be more accurate than others [10:56] in both directions.