Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on partisan redistricting and the midterms

[0:00] The U.S. Labor Secretary's resignation marks the third Trump cabinet departure in recent weeks. [0:05] To discuss that and more on redistricting and the midterms, we turn to our Politics Monday duo. [0:10] That's Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR. [0:15] It's great to see you both, as always. [0:16] So the Labor Secretary, Lori Chavez de Reimer, is stepping down from the Trump administration [0:21] to take a job in the private sector. [0:22] That's according to the White House Communications Director. [0:24] Tam, we know President Trump is willing to stand by embattled officials until he isn't. [0:31] What tends to be the tipping point? [0:33] Yeah, and this is the third embattled official that is now out. [0:39] Remarkably, normally this happens from a presidential post on Truth Social, his social media site. [0:45] In this case, it was just a post from the White House Communications Director. [0:50] Trump didn't even get his hands dirty on this one. [0:53] It has varied each time, but there is often a nexus that involves testimony on Capitol Hill [1:01] or controversies that threaten to break out and get out of control and unable to manage. [1:12] And so here we are. [1:14] You know, the other issue at play here is that if President Trump expects that Republicans [1:21] will have a narrower margin in the Senate after this year, then he may want to lock in new [1:28] cabinet officials that he'll be able to get confirmed. [1:31] So now might be the time for this turnover. [1:34] And often there is a decent amount of turnover, depending on the administration. [1:39] Certainly the first Trump administration had a ton. [1:41] Typically, that second year is a time of turnover. [1:44] All right. [1:45] Well, let's talk about redistricting. [1:46] We just saw Lisa's terrific reporting there. [1:49] Amy, polling shows Virginians narrowly favoring this measure, even though the Democratic governor, [1:55] Abigail Spanberger, won statewide by roughly 15 points. [1:59] So why that disconnect? [2:00] Is this not going? [2:02] Well, who knows, right? [2:02] But is it going to pass? [2:04] What's the... [2:04] The disconnect is you do have a lot of independent voters who don't like Donald Trump, but who [2:09] also like the partisan, the nonpartisan redistricting that has already taken place and that the current [2:18] map is all about. [2:21] I mean, in California and in Virginia, the conversation about redistricting has centered [2:27] really around Donald Trump, at least the conversation on the Democratic side. [2:32] Let this be a check on Donald Trump. [2:35] But I think if we want to step back just a little bit further as to, like, what this [2:39] all looks like now in the big picture, the first is even when Virginia is done tomorrow [2:45] night, there's still one more state that can redraw its lines. [2:50] Florida meets in a special session next week. [2:54] The potential there is that they redraw a map that would give Republicans two to three seats. [2:59] That is likely to be our last map before the 2026 election. [3:04] Overall, what we see is essentially a wash. [3:07] After all this redistricting, all these new lines drawn in many of these states, neither [3:13] side is likely to come out ahead on this. [3:16] Yeah. [3:16] The second is that it's been interesting to watch sort of the pressure campaigns from both [3:22] sides. [3:22] On the Republican side, the president got a lot of what he wanted, Texas and North Carolina [3:28] and Missouri, but he didn't get everything he wanted. [3:31] He really pressured a state like Indiana, for example. [3:35] That rebuffed him. [3:36] Same with Kansas, New Hampshire. [3:38] And on the Democratic side, even dark blue states that didn't have to go through this whole [3:42] referendum process, like Virginia and California did to redraw their lines, Illinois and Maryland, [3:48] they decided not to take up redistricting. [3:50] So not everybody jumped on board from the pressure on both sides. [3:59] And finally, I think we're not likely to see the end of this. [4:03] Remember, we have a Supreme Court case that is yet to be decided involving the Voting Rights [4:09] Act. [4:09] If indeed this gets overturned, the Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, what we could potentially [4:16] see for 2028 are Southern states redrawing their maps. [4:22] They would no longer have to draw minority, majority districts. [4:26] That could give Republicans up to a dozen seats. [4:30] What stands out to you about all of this? [4:32] It is fascinating. [4:35] I'm a Virginia resident, and so I'm being bombarded with mailers and advertising on TV, and it [4:41] is just nonstop. [4:43] And the message that the No campaign is pushing is very interesting because, in part, they [4:50] are playing to the priors of Democrats, Democrats who have railed against gerrymandering for years, [4:58] replaying quotes from former President Obama, from Governor Spanberger in the past, saying [5:05] that gerrymandering is bad and shouldn't happen, and now it is turned around. [5:13] But when you talk to voters, Democratic voters, who are predisposed to think gerrymandering is [5:18] bad, they say, OK, well, you've got to fight fire with fire. [5:22] This one time, it's OK. [5:24] That's what we saw from voters in California, and it's what we're seeing from Democratic voters [5:27] in Virginia as well, the sense that, you know, you may not like it, but you might just vote [5:33] for it anyway. [5:35] Let's look ahead to the midterms because we're seeing some eye-popping numbers, fundraising [5:39] numbers from Democrats, including James Tallarico in Texas, who reported more than $27 million [5:45] raised in a single quarter. [5:47] What stands out the most to you in these early numbers, Amy? [5:51] For sure, the energy that Democrats are feeling on the ground, we're seeing it in special elections, [5:58] where they have been outperforming. [6:03] Kamala Harris is showing in those same districts in 2024 one sign of their enthusiasm, Democrats' [6:09] enthusiasm. [6:09] Another sign is individual fundraising. [6:11] That's how partisans tend to show their interest in elections, because a lot of that money that [6:18] Tallarico raised isn't just from Texans. [6:20] It's from Democrats across the country. [6:22] To me, the biggest, and maybe we'll call it the $300-plus million question for this year, [6:29] is what is going to happen to the $340-plus million in the MAGA, Inc. Super PAC account? [6:37] That is the President Trump's super PAC, that every Republican in America is desperate to [6:44] get a piece of. [6:46] How and when he spends that is going to be a very, very big story. [6:51] Again, these numbers are impressive. [6:53] $340 million in a very small playing field? [6:58] That's a big deal. [6:59] And, Tam, of course, we know from history that fundraising money doesn't always translate [7:04] into votes. [7:05] Money does not necessarily always translate into votes. [7:07] The other thing I will just note quickly is that although Democratic candidates are raising [7:12] a lot of money, the Democratic Party, the DNC and the Democratic Party committees are [7:17] not raising as much. [7:19] And so that might make coordinating or prioritizing where the money goes a little bit more challenging [7:24] coming into the fall, because these high-profile viral candidates are able to just direct [7:31] money to themselves. [7:32] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thanks as always. [7:34] You're welcome. [7:35] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, support journalism you trust, support PBS News, donate now or even [7:52] better, start a monthly contribution today. [7:54] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:55] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:56] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:56] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:57] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:58] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [7:59] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:00] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:01] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:02] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:03] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:04] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:05] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:06] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:07] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:08] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:09] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you. [8:10] Tamra Keith, Amy Walter, thank you.