Swalwell ends bid for CA gov. Is Congress expulsion next?

[0:00] This morning, will Eric Swalwell keep his job in Congress? That's the question after he dropped out of the California governor's race overnight. Four women accused him of sexual misconduct. One of those women says the congressman raped her. The Manhattan District Attorney is now investigating her claims. Swalwell has denied all of the allegations. This morning, Democrats are calling for him to resign. Some are or face expulsion from the House. And this is setting off what could be a series of expulsions. With us now our friend Daniela Diaz [0:30] congressional reporter for notice. Great to see you this morning. The focus now shifts really from California to Washington, where there's an enormous amount of political pressure taking place right now. What do you see? Look, John, it's really to the credit of all these publications, including CNN, who were able to break the news about the sexual misconduct allegations that had been swirling about Congressman Eric Swalwell now for weeks. And because it broke on Friday, we've seen this onslaught of first all of his [1:02] Democratic colleagues calling for his Democratic colleagues calling for him to drop his gubernatorial bid. And now it seems they're going to support a measure to expel him from Congress. To be clear, of course, is very serious. And Congressman Swalwell is standing by the fact that he is defending himself. He denies these allegations to and also is apologizing to his wife in these statements, maybe alleging that there could have been extramarital affairs. But he does not accept that these allegations are true. And it sounds like he's going to stick by those by his [1:32] defense. But Congress is back this week, they were gone for a two week recess for Easter john. And tomorrow, the House is back. And his Democratic colleagues, of course, including with Republican colleagues in the House, are going to move forward on a measure to expel him from Congress, something that's only happened john, about six times before in the history of Congress, the last member of Congress to be expelled, being of course, Congressman George [1:56] George Santos, how could we forget about him. But this is going to be major, because on top of trying to expel Eric Swalwell, there could be also measures to expel Corey Mills, who's also faced allegations of sexual misconduct. And of course, Tony Gonzalez, who we've covered extensively in the Washington DC media sphere for having an extramarital affair with a person who worked in his office who then committed suicide. So this is going to be a very intense week, [2:26] on Capitol Hill as we see how the House members are going to react to this and how they're going to deal with Eric Swalwell, who is expected to be in Washington this week. Yeah, and some are even talking about a package deal where as many as two Republicans, two Democrats are expelled or one Democrat, one Republican expelled this week could be extraordinary goings on. It is worth noting. Swalwell's the only one of these individuals not to be investigated yet by the ethics committee. So it would be unusual. But Congress certainly has the power to do it if they want to, correct? Correct. And I think something [2:58] to keep in mind is the way the House usually plays these things out is they want these investigations to happen in the House ethics committee. We saw that Tony Gonzalez is being investigated. Corey Mills is being investigated. So the way that this is playing out is they're willing to move forward with this without an investigation. I mean, I think the Democratic, the Democratic House members that I've spoken to, read these allegations in CNN, in the San Francisco Chronicle, noticed was able to speak to some of the women, I was able to speak to some of the [3:28] women and confirm some of these allegations. And they're serious enough for them to move forward with this. It's really a big deal. The fact that this congressman, who of course has served in Congress for 10 years, he was seen as a front runner in this gubernatorial bid, which really launched this avalanche of women coming forward, especially after swirls of allegations on social media, which I think helped a lot of women to feel confident to come forward. And this is what's leading to this moment right now where we could see several expulsions. [3:58] In the House with us now CNN senior legal analyst, former assistant US attorney for the Southern District for New York, Ellie Honey, counselor, good to see you this morning. Talk to me about the Manhattan DA's move here. What will they be investigating? How will it work? Why'd they jump in? So John, a case like this is likely to come down to the single issue of consent. Was this sexual contact consensual or non consensual? Now the first thing prosecutors will do naturally is speak to the complainant. The woman get her full statement, get as much detail as they can. Prosecutors [4:30] also will likely reach out to the accused. Eric Swalwell here, you have to go through his defense lawyer. He has the, he'll have the opportunity to speak to prosecutors, although of course he does not have to do that. Then you're in the position of looking for what we call corroboration. You want to look at all the other evidence. So for example, what were this woman's statements to others at or around the time? According to the reporting, there is evidence that this woman told friends and family members that she had had this contact [5:00] sensual. You want to look at the conversations at and after the fact between the complainant and the accused. You want to look and see if there's any medical records. The reporting here is that the woman had pregnancy and STD testing. So that's something short of a full medical workup. And then John, the key thing to keep in mind is for prosecutors, the question is not who is more believable or which side is more likely. Prosecutors remember have to prove their case beyond a reasonable doubt. So that's a very high burden that prosecutors will bear. And again, we said there were [5:30] four women who are four women who came forward, including this one here in New York City. What, what will happen with other potential individuals? Yeah, so the allegedly criminal conduct that the DA is investigating relates to one of the four women, but prosecutors likely will want to speak to the other three women who had other sorts of unwanted advances, photos and texts and exposure from Eric Swalwell. Now prosecutors have to be careful here though, because you might be able to offer that evidence if this case [6:03] is going to be going to trial as a prosecutor by saying, well, it establishes a pattern. However, judges and prosecutors can get in trouble if you bring in too much of this, what we call other bad acts evidence. For example, Harvey Weinstein had one of his convictions thrown out because prosecutors introduced and judges admitted too much of that other bad acts evidence. So I think if you're a prosecutor, you do want to speak to these three other women, but I think you want to be careful with how you use that evidence. So the other half of the intrigue surrounding the [6:33] Swalwell situation is what happens in the House of Representatives. There may very well be a move this week to expel him, something that's almost never been done, though it has been done recently with George Santos here. So what are the exact rules here? And where is the ethics committee, which up until this point hasn't launched an investigation? Where do they fit it? So certainly the ethics committee does have the power to launch an investigation to take statements, but the house also does not necessarily have to wait for the ethics committee or even for prosecutors. Now the Constitution tells us that the House [7:05] can expel its own members can expel its own members by a two-thirds vote of the entire membership. And if you do the math and look at the numbers, there are 219 Republicans right now. So to get to two-thirds, you would need all 219 Republicans plus about 71 Democratic votes. So we've seen some Democratic members of Congress come out against Eric Swalwell. So if that happens fairly quickly, if a vote is forced, they're going to need substantial Democratic support in order to get to that. [7:35] that two-thirds, that'll be a political question whether they have it or not. [7:38] All right, so the group chat is back. I wanted to talk about this because this statement came from Hakeem Jeffries. He said, [7:46] following the incredibly disturbing sexual assault accusations against Congressman Swalwell, we call for a swift investigation into the incidents and said that this is unacceptable of anyone, certainly not an elected official, and must be taken seriously. [8:02] Ron, why do you think that Jeffries spoke so strongly in this case where we have seen Congress be very reluctant to expel lawmakers with their tiny minority and majority lines? [8:17] Well, you know, there's a fundamental difference between the parties and the way they have handled sexual assault issues. [8:24] I just look at the speed at which Swalwell unraveled and was forced out of the race with pressure from fellow Democrats. [8:32] I mean, Donald Trump had two juries, you know, in civil cases adjudicate that he had committed sexual abuse, I think is the phrase under New York law, defame someone by denying it. [8:45] And, you know, there was nothing like that on the Republican side. And that does not only reflect kind of views of elites. I mean, if you drill down into the way voters in each coalition view allegations of sexual abuse, it is quite different. [9:00] But can I stop you here? The CNN reporting here, and I'm just going to CNN reporting here, and he has denied this, but from CNN, their report was that a former Swalwell staffer claimed that he raped her. [9:12] And what happened is what should have happened. I'm just saying it is striking the contrast between what didn't happen. I mean, the fact that Democrats actually investigating. [9:25] You know what's the big difference here is the cell phone. OK, Eric Swalwell, our representative Swalwell, did a lot of this communication on Snapchat. [9:33] Yeah, there's a lot of this talked about how you sent lewd pictures. And I think part of this and why he swiftly stepped down is because there might be a digital trail of some of the stuff that Donald Trump never had. [9:45] And I think that makes it much harder for him to just say, oh, this never happened. I do think there's probably a digital footprint. [9:51] Yeah. And he is aware of that. He and that is where there's a lot of evidence of what Donald Trump did as well. [9:57] You know, but the point is, I think I hear her saying that Swalwell is also trying to get ahead of what could turn out to be explicit messages or photos. [10:08] And it was instantly untenable for him to remain in the race. And based on these accusations, it should have been untenable for him to remain in the race. [10:19] I'm just saying that, you know, we are being reminded that we are operating in kind of very different political worlds. [10:24] Let me add another thought that reflect not only the elected officials, but again, the electorates, the coalitions themselves. [10:29] Republican Tony Gonzalez of Texas. OK, also facing an expulsion vote. [10:34] He's been accused of inappropriate sexual behavior with a staffer. [10:38] I'm bringing this up just to counter your point that you may have a Congress looking at expelling two members. [10:45] And two more. And I think that these allegations against Eric Swalwell put the focus back on Tony Gonzalez in a way that I think, as we're discussing here, [10:55] you know, it had moved away a little bit in the sense that you also had a recess. [11:00] You know, they're coming back. This is squarely on the focus now. [11:03] You have lawmakers are getting asked about it on television. [11:05] Republican lawmakers who were saying on television yesterday. [11:08] Yes, I think both of them. You have Byron Donalds, who's running for governor in Florida. [11:12] But Democrats as well, who are, you know, who are being faced with this question. [11:16] Is it because it's one for one? Like they're not worried about losing? [11:19] But I'm saying, but with the recess, there were accusations against various lawmakers that there was a little bit of a break. [11:29] Now they're all the focus is squarely back on these things. [11:32] But I did want to also raise another point about the environment that we're in currently, which is the Jeffrey Epstein environment. [11:38] Ro Khanna brought this up yesterday and made the point essentially that for Democrats who've been out there have been really vocal about the Jeffrey Epstein allegations. [11:47] You know, this now comes front and center for them. [11:50] And Pramila Jayapal, you know, a point she raised is what does it say to staffers across the Capitol if we don't do something about this, about these allegations that we seem to think as lawmakers that this is how bosses to just treat people who work on Capitol Hill. [12:06] And so I think that's something that's really on the mind of. [12:08] Meanwhile, it's worth mentioning at least just in passing that, you know, the California governor's race was a mess and a muddle before this happened. [12:15] So like mess and a muddle squared is now what you're dealing with. [12:19] You know, in a state where Democrats are probably going to win 60 to 65 percent of the general election vote, they do not have a clear candidate who is, you know, in position to claim a claim a piece of those top two top two finishes. [12:32] I mean, you know, there are more Democratic votes now to go around with Swalwell out. [12:37] But if you're talking about a race with Katie Porter and Tom Steyer as your best chances to get into the top two, that is not something a lot of Democrats feel really comfortable with. [12:44] Yeah, yeah. [12:45] Yeah. [12:46] And they talk just about the kids. [12:47] Yeah. [12:48] And they talk just about the duck. [12:49] Yeah, they're really 먹을 secretary and someone that can be comfortable with their. [12:52] Yeah. [12:53] So obviously you really get on- On-On-A-V colirez kind of going and you have to be stressed out there and you're happy to come back at all those 2000s. [12:54] You have to be like, you have to be catching up on or those two different than you and you never say, we're just gonna get around- [13:00] 200 days. [13:02] Yeah, definitely be comfortable here. [13:04] And that it's okay, especially since 2018 is the information you just never saw and in play as a show or not, when [13:06] you get home's on and out of the fight. [13:07] OK. [13:08] We're going to be honored. [13:09] Yeah, that's good. [13:11] Yes.