Supreme Court ruling sets off gerrymandering scramble

[0:00] Today is exactly six months until the midterm elections. [0:03] And with so much at stake for President Trump and the future direction of the United States, [0:07] what is the likelihood that Democrats can win back one, if not both, chambers of Congress? [0:12] We'll break all that down this hour. [0:14] But given that this past week there was such huge news impacting the races for the House and the Senate, [0:20] with a major jolt upending a critical primary and one of the nation's marquee Senate races, [0:25] and also the Supreme Court blowing up how congressional maps can be drawn, [0:30] giving a huge boost to the GOP and upending the race for the House, [0:35] also potentially changing that institution for decades to come. [0:39] So how will voters respond? [0:41] And will Trump drag down his party or be fixated with political retribution at the ballot box, [0:47] which he is seeking to exact on Republicans beginning in Indiana this week? [0:52] We have an excellent group of reporters to break all this down, [0:55] including NPR's Tamara Keith, CNN's Jeff Zeleny, and Deirdre Walsh from NOTICE. [1:00] Good morning to you all. It's great to see you. [1:02] Good morning. [1:03] Good morning. [1:03] Jeff, you've been digesting the map of these district lines all week long [1:08] because it is so significant. It can impact the race for the House. [1:12] We've been through this gerrymandering war, unprecedented. [1:16] Really, we have not seen this happening in this mid-decade, state-by-state fight [1:21] that's been going on at the beginning of this cycle since Trump began that fight this year. [1:25] Last year in Texas, you can see on your screen. [1:28] Republicans right now have an advantage in that ongoing gerrymandering role by about three seats. [1:34] But then the Supreme Court steps in this past week, limits the Voting Rights Act, [1:39] changes how minority-majority districts' lines can be drawn. [1:42] And now we're seeing several state legislatures trying to help Republicans. [1:47] You can see on your screen there, these are what we expect. [1:51] Alabama tried to add two Republican seats. [1:53] Louisiana tried to add two Republican seats. [1:56] Tennessee won. [1:56] That is this year's midterms, just for this year's midterms. [2:00] Jeff, is that going to be enough for Republicans to stay in power? [2:03] Unlikely. [2:03] I mean, look, the reality is, looking at the president's approval rating, [2:07] looking at just the mood of the economy and other things, [2:09] and Republicans realize that they are up against some dramatic headwinds. [2:13] But this is a historic moment here in terms of, A, the Voting Rights Act. [2:19] I mean, obviously, it's been a pillar of our country's politics for decades. [2:25] And all of that has been slowly changing, starting with the Shelby County decision in 2013. [2:32] But this really effectively dismantled the rest of it. [2:35] But you only had to look at just the exact moment when the Supreme Court was reading this opinion. [2:41] The Florida House of Representatives was voting on this new map in Florida. [2:45] So it's effectively taking this tit for tat that we've seen all year long into overdrive or over time, I guess. [2:52] And look, the short-term effects for the midterms this year are not going to be that much [2:55] because many primaries have already happened. [2:58] The filing deadlines have already happened. [2:59] But next year, it means that redistricting is going to be in overdrive as well. [3:03] And not just the southern states that we saw. [3:05] Democrats are going to respond in kind. [3:07] So we are going to see this new divide in American politics. [3:10] But for this year, at least, it is not likely enough to protect the Republicans. [3:15] And we say that a plus five in Texas. [3:17] We don't know that Republicans are going to win all these five seats. [3:19] Yeah, that's up to five seats they're trying to get. [3:21] But also, Democrats could lose this Virginia case. [3:25] It's before the state Supreme Court there. [3:26] They're trying to get four seats as a result of that ballot referendum that just passed a couple of weeks ago. [3:32] They could potentially, if they lost that, that would be a disaster for them. [3:35] The question, though, is there are so few House seats that are truly in play right now. [3:40] So if you're battling seat by seat, state by state, a couple seats here and a couple seats there could potentially determine the majority. [3:47] I mean, it's a paper-thin margin in the House of Representatives. [3:50] And I think up until, you know, right around the time of the Virginia vote, there was, among Republicans, some redistricting regret, right? [3:57] Because they saw that vote and they were worried about what you just talked about, this tit-for-tat, you know, that they started in Texas at the beginning of the year. [4:06] But I think once the Supreme Court decision came down this week on the Voting Rights Act, Republicans started to feel like, okay, maybe this will be in our favor. [4:15] But also, we were debating mid-decade redistricting up until the Supreme Court. [4:20] Now we're looking at biennial redistricting. [4:23] Redistricting is just here to stay. [4:25] And I think it's just going to be, you know, a dogfight from here on out. [4:28] We're going to see court cases just in these states, but now as these special sessions start up in Tennessee. [4:36] Which starts tomorrow. [4:37] Some of these are starting in Alabama. [4:39] They're starting tomorrow, Tuesday, in Tennessee. [4:41] So this is going to begin, as you say. [4:44] I want to ask you about what the Democrats would be pointing to here is that, look, yes, the Republicans are coming in here. [4:51] They're changing the lines in these states and they can add a couple more seats. [4:54] But they can't get past Trump's poll numbers because a new poll out from the Washington Post out this morning, this is Trump's approval rating among independents, 25%. [5:05] That is rock bottom among the critical voting bloc in some of these key swing districts and states. [5:13] And then the overall generic ballot. [5:15] The Democrats have an advantage here when 49 to 44%, 5% advantage when the question is asked, who do you prefer to control Congress, Democrat versus Republican? [5:26] That's up a couple of points since earlier this year. [5:30] So they hope that Trump drags down Republicans enough that they can eke into the majority or maybe get a solid majority. [5:39] Right. And the fact that there is so much fighting over district lines up right this close to people voting, Louisiana having to move back congressional primaries, that just gives you a sense of how intense this is. [5:55] But, right, the president's approval rating is in the basement. [6:00] He has broken through below where where we thought his floor was and just drive by a gas station and you'll know why. [6:10] It was very clear that President Trump started the war in Iran, went into this war. [6:16] And a lot of voters initially, his voters, were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt to say he's got a plan. [6:22] These gas prices are going to come down quickly. [6:24] He's been saying the war is ending any minute now for more than a month. [6:29] Meanwhile, every time people drive by a gas station and you drive by several a day generally, the prices are up. [6:36] It's over $4 a gallon. [6:38] It's something like $4.35 for the national average right now for a gallon of regular. [6:42] That is tough. [6:44] And whether those people are so mad they're going to vote for Democrats is one thing. [6:49] Whether they're so mad they just stay home is something entirely different. [6:53] And in these midterms, we already know that Democrats have the energy advantage. [6:58] Yeah, and that poll confirms that as well. [7:01] We've seen so many data points to suggest that, including the poll said that the Democrats' advantage grows to nine points among those who are absolutely certain to vote. [7:08] So Democrats would be happy to see that. [7:10] But the impacts on the Supreme Court ruling could impact how many districts they can actually pick up this cycle, whether they can have to defend some new districts. [7:22] And also what will happen, as Jeff noted, in the future. [7:25] Look at the current congressional map. [7:27] When you look at the map of the South, there are 37 Democratic seats to 94 Republican seats. [7:32] Expect in 2028 when they come in here. [7:36] And that could be just a sea of red there, Jeff. [7:39] It absolutely could. [7:40] And that is why we are going to see really a generational and just a foundational change in the House of Representatives. [7:47] And what we're not showing there, the North is going to and the West is going to a responding kind. [7:52] Like Illinois, for example, could be all blue. [7:54] New York could be all blue. [7:56] California could be all blue. [7:57] So what it means overall is more division, more polarization. [8:02] Gerrymandering is something that neither party likes, but both parties are willing to jump right into it because it has become just a race to the bottom. [8:10] But I think that this, the Supreme Court decision, is something probably the biggest case of the year in terms of the overall ramifications for our politics. [8:21] So, again, I think short-term, long-term, and the long-term effects, to your point, every two years now, it's going to be redrawing and redrawing. [8:28] Very quickly. [8:28] And it also puts a highlight on governor's races and state Senate races, state House races, because, you know, these are the people that are going to be deciding these maps in Colorado, in New York, in Illinois. [8:41] And it'll be very important who's running the state. [8:43] And those very states are the ones that Hakeem Jeffries is pointing to, to deal with in the 2028 cycle. [8:49] He's not talking about 2026 or 2028. [8:51] The question will be, how does this ruling impact 2026? [8:55] Of course, six months away today.