Strait of hormuz tensions rise: iran reopens shipping, us blockade continues amid nuclear deal

[0:00] after Tehran says it had reopened the Strait of Hormuz [0:03] to commercial ships which coordinate with Iran. [0:07] This comes after a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon took effect. [0:11] Iran had asked for that as part of its truth with the U.S. [0:15] The Revolutionary Guard says civilian ships transiting the strait [0:19] will need the Navy's authorization to pass [0:22] and will have to take a route designated by Iran. [0:26] Military vessels will be strictly prohibited. [0:29] Earlier, the Foreign Minister declared the strait completely open. [0:32] That was welcomed by President Trump. [0:35] He says the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in force [0:39] as talks to end the war continue and claims a final deal is mostly complete. [0:45] However, an Iranian source has told Al Jazeera [0:48] that negotiations are still at a very early stage [0:51] and the next step will be agreeing on a framework for negotiations, [0:55] not a final agreement. [0:57] Let's bring in Mike Hanna, who's in Washington for us at the White House. [1:02] We just heard from President Trump a short while ago, very briefly, [1:06] but he's made a number of announcements today on social media these last few hours, [1:11] not just on the Strait of Hormuz, but also on Iran's nuclear program. [1:14] What does this all signal, Mike, as far as the negotiations? [1:17] Well, it appears to show a degree of optimism on President Trump's part. [1:23] It also agrees, appears, insists some Iranian sources to be somewhat delusional on certain points. [1:32] But we heard President Trump there just repeating the fact that the U.S. [1:36] will continue its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until he says a deal is signed and completed. [1:42] So, President Trump insisting that that blockade will continue, [1:46] despite Iran saying that it will conditionally open the Strait, [1:51] something that President Trump also celebrated earlier on in the day. [1:57] Now, he's also talking about some kind of agreement of removing nuclear reactive material out of Iran. [2:04] This is something that he has spoken about before, [2:08] but he appears to think that part of the deal would be for Iran to hand over some of its radioactive nuclear stock, [2:16] which it uses, Iran says, for peaceful nuclear development. [2:20] So, President Trump making a series of statements on social media, [2:24] all of which are tied around an apparent belief that a deal is very near. [2:29] He says all the agreements are in place. [2:31] It's just basically dotting the I's and crossing the T's, he does imply. [2:37] So, that is what he's been saying throughout the day, that the deal is close. [2:42] It could be imminent. [2:43] It could be over this weekend. [2:45] So, a lot of messaging from President Trump, [2:48] perhaps indicating where he wants it to go rather than where it actually is going. [2:54] Mike, we have a clip of what President Trump said just a short while ago [2:58] when he landed in Las Vegas about Iran and that agreement. [3:02] Let's listen to that, and I'll come back to you afterwards. [3:04] We're having a big day. [3:05] We'll see how it all turns out, but it should be good. [3:08] We've had some very good discussions, [3:10] and hopefully that subject that you like to talk about will be very good, [3:14] and we've done a good job, but we'll see. [3:17] Talks are going on. [3:18] It'll go on over the weekend, and a lot of good things are happening. [3:22] And that includes Lebanon, too. Lebanon, too. [3:26] Is this number okay that there's still, Iran says there's significant differences? [3:31] Well, there could be. Let's see what happens. [3:32] If there are, we'll have to straighten it out, [3:34] but I don't think there's too many significant differences. [3:37] On the blockade, Mr. President, what will it take to end the blockade? [3:40] When the agreement is signed, the blockade ends. [3:43] As soon as the agreement gets signed, that's when the blockade ends. [3:46] Did Anthropic have a meeting at the White House? [3:48] Who? [3:48] Sir, Anthropic? [3:49] I have no idea. [3:50] On Cuba, Mr. President, we will actually... [3:53] So, Mike, President Trump, they're saying that talks will go over the weekend, [3:58] will go on over the weekend. [4:00] Do we have any indication who will be part of those talks? [4:05] No, no indication whatsoever. [4:06] In fact, these talks that President Trump continues to talk about [4:11] do not appear to have been formalized in any way. [4:14] But one interesting point in the course of the day, [4:17] in one of his social media messages, [4:19] President Trump said that he has not settled on [4:22] who will lead the delegation should these talks be resuscitated or renewed. [4:27] Now, the last set of talks in Pakistan were headed by Vice President J.D. Vance. [4:32] Now, President Trump now indicating that he may change the point person [4:35] for any negotiation that may happen. [4:38] This is a very interesting tactic by President Trump, [4:42] maybe trying to keep other negotiators or those who will be negotiated with on edge. [4:47] But President Trump, once again, you hear him there saying everything is good. [4:52] He said as well that there are no significant differences with Iran. [4:57] Now, that is an important point, [4:58] given the reporting that we have had from Tehran [5:01] about there being very significant differences [5:03] in terms of what is expected [5:05] or what President Trump is expecting from Iran. [5:10] So, it's still a situation of mixed messaging. [5:13] President Trump welcoming that the Strait of Hormuz is open, [5:17] but insisting that the blockade, [5:19] the U.S. blockade of the Strait, [5:21] will continue until a deal is signed. [5:24] Something that President Trump says negotiations could happen this weekend, [5:29] as soon as this weekend, [5:31] without any real evidence that any such preparations are being made. [5:35] Mike Hanna at the White House in Washington, [5:37] thank you very much for bringing us the latest there. [5:39] Let's now get the view from Tehran [5:41] and speak to Abbas Aslani, [5:43] a senior research fellow at the Tehran-based Center [5:45] for Middle East Strategic Studies. [5:47] Thank you so much, Abbas Aslani, for joining us. [5:49] President Trump said just a few minutes ago [5:52] that he doesn't think there are too many significant differences [5:55] between Iran and the U.S. right now. [5:57] Is that how it's being seen in Tehran? [6:03] Fully, we are witnessing not just a gap in the discussions and negotiations, [6:09] but also the narrative which we are hearing. [6:12] So, there are competing, let's say, accounts [6:14] on what is taking place at the negotiations. [6:19] The U.S. president's optimistic outlook of the process [6:25] as contrasts with the view here in Tehran. [6:29] And he considers the war has been completed. [6:35] It's a done deal. [6:37] And all things have been discussed and agreed. [6:39] And he's talking of an imminent, you know, potential round. [6:43] But the U.S. side has a different, let's say, interpretation [6:47] of what is taking place, saying that they have been only able [6:52] to address the cessation of the hostilities [6:54] and issues like the nuclear issue, [6:57] as well as the others, remain to be addressed. [7:00] And they are not confirming also any second round [7:04] for the negotiations. [7:05] And it seems that, interestingly, we are seeing that [7:09] they are in two different worlds. [7:12] But you say that, Abbas Aslani, [7:15] but Donald Trump has been given quite a few details, [7:18] especially when it comes to the nuclear issue. [7:20] He says Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. [7:25] He says Iran has agreed to the U.S. recovering 60% [7:29] of its enriched uranium. [7:31] I mean, he's providing quite a lot of details. [7:33] Is this just narrative or has there actually been some agreements [7:36] perhaps going on behind the scene on the nuclear issue? [7:42] Fully, the nuclear issue remains to be among the sticking points [7:46] and an elephant in the room. [7:48] Even among the American officials or the account [7:53] that we are hearing from the American media is not consistent. [7:58] They are talking of suspension for a limited time, [8:02] like the 20 years, or some are saying forever, [8:05] like the U.S. president. [8:07] But Iran is saying that, you know, this has not been, you know, resolved. [8:11] Iran says that the right to enrichment cannot be, you know, negotiated, [8:18] and they are not going to export the high-enriched uranium stock pot. [8:23] What's the red line? [8:24] So this at least indicates that... [8:26] What is the red line, Abbas Aslani, on the nuclear issue? [8:29] Is it enrichment or is it stopping the nuclear program indefinitely? [8:36] What is it? [8:36] Is the time frame the issue? [8:41] You know, Iran insists that it will not accept zero enrichment, [8:46] whether it's going to be suspension or not, that's not yet clear. [8:50] But at least Iran is insisting that it has the right to enrich uranium [8:55] under the international law. [8:56] And also it says that it will not export the highly enriched uranium stock pot. [9:02] And they can be downblended or, let's say, downgraded to a lower level. [9:09] And also that is important that other issues have not yet been resolved, [9:16] like the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran believes that a new protocol [9:20] needs to be adopted in that area. [9:23] Well, let me ask you about the Strait of Hormuz, [9:25] because we've heard the IRGC say that civilian ships transiting through the Strait [9:30] will need the Navy's authorization. [9:32] Earlier, the Foreign Minister Abbas Arachid said shipping was allowed, [9:38] but only along routes designated by Tehran. [9:41] So what's changed here? [9:42] I mean, how should we understand this current situation? [9:45] How is it different from what we've seen in the past seven weeks? [9:47] At least what we know up to now is that, you know, [9:54] the passage of the vessels through the waterway has been allowed [9:58] to a certain number of tankers, you know, [10:01] through the designated drought by Iran, [10:04] only commercial vessels, [10:07] and only through coordination with the Iranian side. [10:10] But this is based on the April 8th, you know, ceasefire agreement, [10:18] which this can somehow, you know, subject to further changes, [10:23] more vessels transiting through the waterway. [10:27] But this somehow needs to be based from Iranian perspective [10:34] on the new protocol, meaning that it should be coordinated with Iran, [10:39] controlled with Iran. [10:40] But also there have been some discussions when they are saying new protocols, [10:46] you know, charging, you know, [10:48] also comes into our mind. [10:51] Interesting. [10:51] So this new protocol, just to clarify, [10:53] just to clarify, Abbas Aslani, [10:55] this new protocol that you described will put in place a toll system? [10:59] It is also among the, let's say, regulations [11:05] that will be included in the protocol. [11:09] That is the designated routes by Iran, [11:12] coordination with Iran, and maybe charging tolls. [11:15] We have not been provided the exact details of what that entails, [11:21] but the officials also have been hearing to the tolls now and then. [11:27] And we are hearing maybe again, [11:30] different narrative from the American side on this. [11:33] But at least they are working on that. [11:36] And to what extent the progress has been made, [11:39] that remains a question. [11:41] But at least that is among the sticking points [11:44] at the negotiating table fully. [11:46] Abbas Aslani, thank you so much for bringing us the view there from Tehran. [11:49] Abbas Aslani is a senior research fellow [11:51] at the Tehran-based Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies. [11:54] Thank you for your time. [11:55] Well, let's show you what the Strait of Hormuz looks like right now [12:00] after those announcements earlier by Iran. [12:03] This is a live map of maritime traffic data. [12:06] The red dots and arrows you can see are oil tankers. [12:09] Those in green are other commercial vessels. [12:11] Around a fifth of global oil supplies [12:13] are normally transported through the waterway, [12:15] though it's been largely closed [12:18] since the start of the war seven weeks ago. [12:20] Iran says ships must use the country's new routes [12:24] to pass the Strait. [12:25] Last week, the Revolutionary Guard said [12:27] this was the route vessels needed to take [12:29] in coordination with its navy. [12:32] This is a more northerly route closer to Iran's coast. [12:36] Those shipping routes pass either side of Larak Island. [12:39] That heavily guarded island is reportedly being used [12:42] by the IRGC to monitor ship traffic. [12:45] Let's speak to Scott Eulinger about this. [12:48] He's a retired CIA station chief and a former U.S. Navy officer [12:51] and is joining us from Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. [12:54] Thank you so much for being with us again on Al Jazeera. [12:57] With this announcement by the IRGC Navy [13:00] that, you know, ships have to coordinate with it to go through, [13:05] has anything changed effectively at the Strait of Hormuz? [13:07] If you were a commander of a vessel today, [13:10] would you feel that you were crossing it in a safe and free way? [13:17] Right. Well, actually, right. [13:18] This announcement by the IRGC, I think, [13:21] is absolute propaganda and is not to be trusted. [13:26] The Iranian Navy or the IRGC Navy is in no position to dictate terms. [13:32] Now, they have stated that they have changed the traffic separation scheme, [13:37] and the excuse is that it's to avoid potential mine areas. [13:44] I'm not sure if the United States has weighed in on this, [13:47] but this doesn't smell right to me as somebody who's personally made that transit several times. [13:54] Remember, a lot of the Iranian announcements are made for propaganda purposes, [13:59] lies to their own people. [14:01] They don't reflect the views, official views of the Iranian government. [14:05] It's just that that is the vision of Iran they want their people to see. [14:10] So everything has to be taken with a grain of salt. [14:12] Right. A grain of salt. [14:14] But if you're a captain of, you're a commander of a ship that wants to pass through the strait today, [14:19] would you feel confident, even if you say this is just, you know, propaganda by the Iranians? [14:25] Right. That's a good question. And the answer is exactly. It is going to affect you. [14:31] The captain of a tanker is going to await company orders. [14:35] And basically, these kinds of announcements are going to make a private commercial company [14:41] operating for profit a little nervous. [14:43] And so that's going to make them less reluctant to go through the straits. [14:47] And that's why I was saying earlier, I think that we'll start seeing normal traffic resume after [14:54] several more days, because clearly there is some negotiating or statement that the U.S. needs to make [15:00] to clarify some points regarding the straits of Hormuz. [15:05] Because it is a confusing situation for a ship owner and a ship's captain. [15:13] Right. I was going to ask you about that. [15:15] What do you think they would like to hear right now, whether from the U.S. or Iranians? [15:20] How long do you anticipate for traffic to resume there? [15:24] How long can countries in this region, like Qatar, for example, start to move their products, [15:29] their oil and gas again freely through the strait of Hormuz? [15:34] Well, like I said, it's highly unlikely that the Iranians are going to attack. [15:39] But that, but still, the companies are cautious. [15:43] So I think that probably in short order, CENTCOM, the U.S. government will announce, will clarify this situation, [15:53] whether is traffic indeed to follow a northern route, as you stated, or is that simply propaganda? [16:01] So the United States is probably going to come out and try to clarify this, [16:05] because only when we have a clear situation are there going to be enough tankers confident enough to make the passage. [16:14] Yeah. And in the meantime, there's a huge backlog of vessels waiting to make it through. [16:19] Once, you know, it starts moving again, who goes through first? How do they decide that? [16:27] That's a very good question. [16:29] There really isn't a very strong vessel traffic service going through the straits. [16:35] There may be some attempt to organize it by how long each vessel has been waiting. [16:41] How long has a vessel been at Anchorage? [16:44] And perhaps the ones that have been at Anchorage longest would be the ones who would be allowed to transport first. [16:50] But I have a feeling it'll tend to be a little bit disorganized, more on a first-come, first-served basis. [16:56] Yeah. And the thing is that we're also hearing from the U.S. that they're continuing their blockade of the strait. [17:02] And the Iranians have previously said that if the U.S. kept this naval blockade in place, [17:08] that they could escalate, possibly closing the Bab el-Mandeb Street, another crucial waterway in this region. [17:17] Why is the U.S. doing this, keeping this pressure on the strait of Hormuz? [17:21] It could derail negotiations. [17:23] Well, first of all... [17:25] Couldn't it? [17:25] Right. To clarify, the United States is absolutely not blockading the straits of Hormuz. [17:31] There is absolute free passage in the straits. [17:35] What the United States is doing is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports. [17:40] Everyone who wants to come in and stop in Qatar or in Saudi Arabia are welcome and have been. [17:47] The United States sent two destroyers in to make sure that there was freedom of navigation, [17:53] because that's why the U.S. Navy is there. [17:55] But it is blockading those ports, the Iranian ports. [17:59] And it's because Iran has constantly used negotiation as a delaying tactic so they can get their act together. [18:07] The United States is on to this, understands this, and is not going to break off the blockade [18:14] until such time as a deal is actually concluded. [18:20] Okay. Thank you so much for speaking to us and sharing your expertise with us. [18:24] Scott Ulinger, retired CIA station.