Strait of hormuz tensions: mixed signals on us blockade, restrictions & nuclear talks collapse risk

[0:00] There's uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz is open for maritime traffic despite both Iran and the U.S. saying it is. [0:09] The closure has choked global energy supplies for weeks. [0:13] In the past hour, the Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammed Ali Baaf, says the U.S. blockade on Iran renders the Strait closed. [0:21] He says ships can only pass through designated routes and with Iran's authorisation. [0:27] President Donald Trump insists the blockade will only be lifted the moment a peace deal is reached with Tehran. [0:34] Trump had earlier declared the Strait of Hormuz is, quote, completely open and ready for business. [0:38] There have also been mixed messages regarding the future of more than 400 kilograms of Iran's enriched nuclear material. [0:47] Trump has declared that the U.S. will get it, but Iran has rejected this outright. [0:52] Washington and Tehran could be headed for a second round of talks, possibly within the coming days. [0:59] Trump claims a deal is mostly complete. [1:02] However, an Iranian source has told Al-Tazir that negotiations are still at a very early stage [1:07] and the next step will be agreeing on a framework for negotiations, not a final agreement. [1:14] Now, Donald Trump has been speaking at a rally in Arizona, and this is what he said just a short while ago. [1:19] And this process, we're getting along well, but who knows, who knows with anyone, but who knows with Iran in particular. [1:28] This process should go very quickly, and that most of the points are already negotiated and agreed to. [1:35] You'll be very happy. [1:37] The U.S.A. will get all nuclear dust. [1:40] But Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed or is removing all of the sea mines. [1:47] And most importantly, it never agreed, and you'll understand, they will never have a nuclear weapon. [1:55] They will never have a nuclear weapon. [1:56] Now, Mohamed Bahir Khalibaaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, [2:02] a key player in the negotiations with the U.S., has posted on X, saying, [2:06] The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. [2:13] They didn't win the war with these lies, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either. [2:19] With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Ramuz will not remain open. [2:24] Passage through the Strait will be conducted based on the designated route and with Iranian authorization. [2:30] Whether the Strait is open or closed, and the regulations governing it will be determined by the field, [2:36] not by social media. [2:39] Now, Mike Hanna joins us from the White House. [2:42] Now, Donald Trump says all the things have been agreed. [2:47] However, that's come as a surprise to the Iranians. [2:50] So what's exactly Donald Trump been saying over the last few hours? [2:55] Well, he's been very upbeat. [2:56] He's been talking up a framework that he believes would lead to imminent negotiations [3:03] or a resumption of negotiations throughout the day in social media posts [3:08] in various interviews and in that speech that you mentioned there. [3:11] He's been framing the whole day in the fact that negotiations are imminent [3:17] or a resumption of negotiations are imminent. [3:20] There are still significant differences, but President Trump says, [3:24] no, these significant differences are not significant. [3:28] They are easily overcome, that many points of agreement have already been made. [3:33] But to take one example, for example, President Trump continues to insist that the situation [3:38] in Lebanon is completely separate from Iran-U.S. negotiations. [3:44] Iran says that an end to the Israeli advance and war in Lebanon is a precondition for any [3:52] lasting agreement and, in fact, for any negotiations to take place. [3:56] So while President Trump is talking up and writing up a storm on his social media, [4:01] there still seems to be a massive gap between the parties, [4:05] a gap that President Trump appears reluctant or unwilling to acknowledge. [4:10] That's Mike Hanna live for us there from the White House. [4:13] Abbas Islani is a senior research fellow at the Centre for Middle East Strategic Studies. [4:18] He's joining us from Tehran. [4:20] I want to get into the detail of one of the points that seems to be the major contention. [4:25] It's whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually open. [4:28] Donald Trump is insisting it's open, but Tehran is very clear. [4:32] It says it's not us that's blocking it now. [4:34] It's the Americans. [4:36] So what is Tehran's position right now? [4:42] Well, Tehran is saying that the Strait of Hormuz is open based on, you know, certain conditions, [4:49] meaning that it's open to commercial vessels and not to the hostile, let's say, nations. [4:54] And the vessels need to transit through the designated route by Iran [5:00] and through coordination with Iranian authorities. [5:04] But one thing which could be a point of contention [5:07] is that Tehran insists that the naval blockade adopted by the U.S. [5:13] against the country is a violation of the ceasefire agreement previously brokered by Pakistan. [5:20] And this can provoke a reaction from the renaissance side. [5:25] But the U.S. is saying that this blockade can be lifted if there is a deal done. [5:30] But this is something which is not a problem today, but might be, you know, [5:38] the point of contention in the days to come. [5:41] And in addition to that, we are seeing that there is a divergence in the narratives [5:46] about what is taking place in the process. [5:50] And despite some common, you know, grounds, there are also differences. [5:55] Now, Abbas, in the next coming days, there may well be, and this is not confirmed, [6:00] but there may well be direct negotiations between Iran and the U.S. [6:07] Now, this is being framed by Donald Trump as we've got mostly a deal, [6:11] but the Iranians have walked this back, and they're saying, [6:13] actually, we're talking about the framework for the negotiations, [6:18] not the final settlement. [6:20] So what do they mean by framework for the negotiations? [6:22] Surely that's already been settled. [6:27] And, Brian, it is about mostly the framework and the preliminary, you know, agreement [6:32] that what a potential agreement can look like. [6:36] It means that on the, you know, in principle, they can agree on major issues like Iran's right-term reach, [6:45] as well as, you know, the highly enriched uranium stockpile, the strain of hormones, and et cetera. [6:51] But down the road, they will need to finalize the details. [6:56] And the details, if not more important than the framework, they will not be less important. [7:00] So that's why Iran is a bit cautious about the process. [7:05] And they think that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. [7:09] And they are in a waiting, see more, to see how the upcoming discussions will unfold. [7:17] And there's no official confirmation from the Iranian side on a potential second round. [7:24] However, if there is any progress on the remaining issues, I think that round can be held sometime in future. [7:33] I mean, Abbas, we've spoken about this before. [7:36] You used the word there, cautious. [7:38] Iran's being cautious. [7:40] Is it caution or is it simply mistrust? [7:46] It is a caution based on mistrust because Iran has been engaging with the United States, [7:53] specifically under Trump for twice, and it was attacked military, militarily. [7:59] And that was happening in the middle of negotiation where they're making progress. [8:05] So that's why at the moment Iran, you know, thinks that it is facing a dual track from the U.S. [8:12] On the one side, things are moving ahead in a direction that there might be a potential agreement. [8:17] But on the other, Iran is facing naval blackade, you know, occasional sanctions being imposed against [8:25] the country, as well as U.S. military presence in the region, which makes Iran a bit cautious [8:31] on what the U.S. is seeking. [8:34] And sometimes the political shifting by the U.S., you know, raises this question [8:39] whether the U.S. is maybe torpedoing the process or they are seeking to get more compromises [8:47] from Tehran. [8:48] So that's why Iran and negotiators are cautious contrary to what is being heard from the American [8:54] side. [8:55] That's Abbas Islani there, live for us from Tehran. [8:58] Thank you. [8:59] Now, the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani has met.