Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon: Iran state media

[0:00] Iranian state media saying oil tankers have now been halted from passing through the Strait of [0:05] Hormuz because of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. That says the White House is sending a delegation [0:11] to Pakistan to negotiate long-term peace with Iran. The president announcing that two-week [0:16] ceasefire just about 90 minutes before the deadline for his threat to wipe out Iranian [0:21] civilization. Trump's saying that he received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he believes [0:26] can be a basis to negotiate a permanent ceasefire. The White House press secretary saying Trump's [0:31] strong words were not an empty threat either. And it was the Iranians who backed down, not President [0:38] Trump. He said that they would face very grave consequences, as you just laid out, by the 8 p.m. [0:43] deadline if they did not agree to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And what did they do last night? [0:47] They agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Joining me now, our Alex Pache, also retired Marine Colonel [0:52] Steve Ganyard. So, Alex, let's kind of walk through what's in this deal now and just some of the [0:57] contradicting details that we've heard from the Iranians. Yeah, well, Kira, I mean, this is a [1:02] fast-developing situation. And so, you know, there's a lot of confusion, I suppose, right now [1:06] as to, you know, will this deal actually hold? As you mentioned, this 11th hour deal, the Iranians [1:12] and the Americans agreeing to essentially a two-week ceasefire. The president saying that there was a [1:18] framework which the Iranians had first put forward. That was a 10-point plan. Mind you, the points, many of the [1:24] points in there. U.S. officials close to those negotiations told us those were things that the [1:27] president had flat-out rejected. But the president said that that was a framework for which they could [1:32] work going forward. Also coupled with the notion that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz, which [1:39] about 20 percent of the world's oil flows through, would be conditions for this joint ceasefire on both [1:47] sides. But when I say there's a lot of uncertainty, Kira, you know, in the last couple of hours, following [1:54] Israel's attack on Lebanon, oil tankers are now suspended from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's [2:00] semi-official FAR news agency has reported. And so, you know, the viability of this ceasefire going, not just [2:09] through the 10 days, but even up until this weekend, whenever those negotiations are really [2:13] started to get underway, is really kind of up in the air. So, Steve, the Pentagon says it achieved all of its [2:20] military objectives in Iran. Do you believe that? Doesn't matter what I believe, Kira. If the Pentagon says they have [2:28] and the president says they have, then the game's over. And that's what the president said. He said, we have [2:33] achieved all of our military objectives, and so we will institute a ceasefire. So, as Alex says, the ceasefire itself is [2:40] really yet to be negotiated. And I think a lot of what we're hearing, a lot of the points that each [2:44] side are putting across, are negotiating points. So, getting to the table is the big key. A lot of what [2:50] we're hearing and people saying, this will never work, these are too. If you get to the table, anything [2:55] can be finessed. So, if both sides want it, then they'll make it happen. But, Kira, remember, this is not [3:00] like World War I or World War II, where there was a complete capitulation of the other side. This is more like [3:07] Vietnam. And the Paris peace talks went on for four years. Now, hope this won't go on for four years, but it is [3:13] going to take time, because you're going to have to agree on things. And at some point, both sides are [3:17] going to have to believe that continuing is not going to be worth the end state that they can think [3:25] they can get by continuing to fire. And the firing is what's interesting to me, is that there are more [3:30] missiles launched today at the Gulf states than there have been daily for the past two weeks. So, clearly, [3:36] things are not over, and everybody's sort of trying to get their last legs in before the meeting in [3:41] Pakistan. Well, Steve, we should, you know, point out that Trump says Lebanon isn't part of this deal, [3:46] and now Iran says it's halted oil traffic in the strait again. So, is this already falling apart? [3:53] Yeah, this is going to be, apparently, the key negotiating position of the Iranians. Remember [3:58] that Hezbollah is one of their proxies, and Hezbollah is taking a beating right now in Lebanon. And so, [4:04] they're trying to defend their proxies. Probably not going to be able to bring that to the table, [4:08] but they do need to negotiate that. So, the Chinese want the Iranians to settle. They'll probably say, [4:13] look, you can only ask for so much, because the U.S. and Israel say, look, we're two separate. We [4:18] coordinated on attacking Iran, but we each have our own interests. And nobody said, nobody here in [4:23] Israel signed up to saying, if you stop with Iran, that we're going to stop in Lebanon. So, I think a [4:27] lot to, a lot to consider here that's going to have to get negotiated this weekend. But remember, [4:32] Kira, the strait is not closed because the Iranians closed it. The strait is closed because the insurance [4:37] companies won't insure those tankers. So, even if the Iranians say the strait is open, [4:42] nobody has gone in and said, look, all those mines that we think they may have put in, [4:46] there may have been a dozen mines put in, or is there some rogue commander on the shore that [4:51] might shoot at one of these ships. None of the insurance companies are going to sign off and say, [4:55] yes, we will insure your ship to go through that strait until they are confident that the risks are low [5:00] enough to risk their insurance money. Again, you're Alex Brachet. Thank you both.