Strait of Hormuz blockade shifts US strategy to squeeze Iran’s economy — This is America

[0:09] This is America, where economic pressure is the new front line in the conflict with Iran. [0:13] Questions over a U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and a high-stakes bet that Iran will blink first. [0:19] I'll be back a little later in the program as we explore this. [0:22] But to start us off, here's Anna Burns-Francis. [0:26] Thanks, Manny. [0:27] Shifting strategies in the war on Iran has seen the Strait of Hormuz become the focus of the United States, [0:33] a waterway the president said he had no interest in until now. [0:37] Our chief U.S. correspondent Alan Fisher joins us from the White House today, [0:41] and Kristen Salumi is outside the New York Stock Exchange. [0:45] The clash of geopolitics and the price of oil is causing pain not just for Iran, [0:51] but its allies and enemies alike around the world. [0:54] Even the U.S. president is promising his party base and viewers tuning into Fox Business [0:59] the pain is worth the price. [1:02] If you told me that we were going to be at only $92 a barrel, $92 a barrel, [1:08] I would have been very surprised. [1:11] And you know what? [1:13] I'm very happy. [1:13] And it's going to come dropping down very big as soon as it's over. [1:16] And I think it can be over very soon. [1:19] But do everyday Americans believe him? [1:22] Richard Gaysford went to the Watergate Exxon station to find out. [1:25] Well, you can see here in the nation's capital that fuel has reached very nearly $6 a U.S. gallon. [1:34] That is more than $2 per litre. [1:36] But the politicians just down the road in the Capitol building have been on their Easter holidays. [1:42] As they've been relaxing, the price has been going up. [1:46] The question is, will Donald Trump's strategy work and eventually bring down prices? [1:52] I'd love to say yes. [1:53] I hope it comes down soon. [1:54] But it doesn't seem likely. [1:55] At least not in the foreseeable next two to three months. [1:59] It seems like with the backlog that they've got to work through, [2:00] it's going to take much longer than that to bring down some prices for us. [2:03] Will it go back to what it was before? [2:05] I don't know, because I'm not sure what it looks like on the ground. [2:09] I think a lot has been destroyed. [2:11] But I think he'll move on to something else. [2:13] Well, you know, I certainly hope they don't go up any further. [2:16] It's bad enough as it is. [2:17] So, you know, it's becoming unaffordable for most. [2:20] I just hope that it comes to an end soon, sooner rather than later. [2:23] Do you have hope that it will? [2:25] Absolutely, 100%. [2:26] And you trust the president's strategy in this? [2:29] No comment. [2:29] I don't think anyone is going to back out. [2:32] So this is a game of chicken that we have to wait and see what's going to happen. [2:37] But we as the American people shouldn't have to suffer. [2:40] And how much suffering can you take? [2:41] How much more pain can you take? [2:43] We cannot go on like this into the midterms. [2:46] We need help immediately. [2:49] In a moment, Kristen Salumi joins us from outside the New York Stock Exchange. [2:53] But first, let's go to Alan Fisher at the White House. [2:56] Alan, how much of that domestic pressure is a concern to the president? [3:00] Well, we keep hearing this as short-term pain for long-term gain. [3:04] They believe that come the midterms, this will all be forgotten. [3:07] But there's a few realities to all of this for Donald Trump. [3:10] First of all, he was the president at campaign that within the first year, [3:14] oil prices would be down. [3:16] It'd half everyone's bills. [3:17] It'd be cheaper to fill up your car. [3:19] But what we've seen over the last five, six weeks is that oil prices have gone up by about 20%. [3:24] That immediately has a knock-on, because everyone who uses gas, uses petrol, [3:29] suddenly has to bump up their prices to meet that. [3:32] That means that food becomes much more expensive. [3:35] And if you're spending a lot more money on food and filling up your car to get to work, [3:39] you don't have disposable income. [3:41] What does that mean? [3:42] Well, you don't have money to go and spend in the shops. [3:44] So the shops start to take a hit as well. [3:47] Now, how long will this last? [3:48] Well, most people say that the difficulty with supply chains is going to go on for several weeks. [3:53] And the reason for that is that prices for insurance on ships that bring things through the strait [4:00] and travel there, well, that's going up as well. [4:03] And that will last for some considerable time. [4:05] So all of these things add into problems for Donald Trump. [4:09] What does it mean politically? [4:10] Well, as I said, he's the president that said he was going to cut oil prices. [4:14] He was going to cut energy bills. [4:17] And if that doesn't happen, people will say, well, what are you going to do for his next? [4:20] And how can we believe you? [4:22] This is going to be a long-term impact for the United States. [4:26] So, yeah, Donald Trump can talk about short-term pain for long-term gain, [4:30] but he's got to try and convince the American people that that's actually the case. [4:34] Yeah, Kristen, I'll bring you in here because somewhat surprisingly, markets have rallied of late. [4:38] So does that mean investors are not worried about oil prices? [4:48] That is the question. [4:49] Investors may be worried, but two factors right now seem to be driving investor optimism. [4:55] One is the strength of corporate earnings with big tech and finance right now still doing well in the markets and leading the way. [5:04] And also there's a belief that a resolution will come sooner rather than later. [5:09] And we're talking at a time when the S&P 500 stock market index is flirting with all-time highs. [5:17] It's recovered from the declines it saw after the start of the war despite rising oil prices [5:23] and despite this uncertain geopolitical landscape. [5:26] It's being led by companies like Apple and Meta who are still forecasting strong earnings. [5:33] But on the other hand, you have this issue of higher gas prices that is starting to weigh on consumer prices. [5:41] It's pushing up consumer prices and treasury yields. [5:46] It's also pushing those up. [5:47] That has expectations of an interest rate cut for the rest of the year now disappearing. [5:55] Things that would normally be considered bad news for investors. [5:59] Investors seem to be counting on Donald Trump's strategy of finding an off-ramp and protecting the markets. [6:07] But the longer that this continues, we're hearing warnings coming from the head of the IMF [6:12] that a global recession is possible if these pressures continue on inflation and if oil prices continue to rise. [6:22] Kristen Salumi joining us from New York and Alan Fisher at the White House. [6:25] Thank you both. [6:28] After weeks of strikes and stalled diplomacy, it's clear the U.S. is shifting strategy. [6:34] The American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz designed to choke off Iran's oil exports and force concessions [6:40] has many wondering who will feel the pressure first. [6:43] Let's go back to Mani Rapalo for a look at how the U.S. media is framing the story. [6:47] A lot of back and forth from U.S. news media over the economics of the ongoing conflict in Iran. [6:54] And that's why today we're outside the International Monetary Fund here in Washington, D.C., [6:59] where meetings are being held to discuss the war. [7:02] Now, let's start with The Wall Street Journal with this headline, [7:05] IMF warns of deep global downturn if war is prolonged. [7:09] Now, this reporting goes on to say, quote, [7:11] a prolonged Middle East conflict could slash global growth to rates seen only in the deepest recent recessions. [7:19] Now, all of this economic uncertainty appears to stem at least in part from confusion [7:24] over the latest phase of the conflict in Iran and who exactly has control over the Strait of Hormuz. [7:30] Here's CNN breaking this down. [7:33] You've got a double blockade, essentially. [7:35] You've got the U.S. essentially blockading Iranian-linked tankers. [7:40] And then you've got, you know, the existing restrictions and threats. [7:45] And if you do engage with the Iranians, are the U.S. going to get you and vice versa? [7:50] The shipping industry is stuck in the middle right now. [7:52] Now, there's also a lot of talk over leverage and what cards Iran has left to play. [7:58] Check out this opinion article from Foreign Affairs. [8:00] For Iran, Hormuz is more a weakness than a weapon. [8:04] And that report goes on to say, quote, [8:06] Tehran claims to have shown the world that it has tremendous leverage over other economies. [8:11] But that narrative mistakes tactical pressuring over strategic resilience. [8:15] Now, let's head over to Fox Business. [8:17] Here's U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reinforcing that idea. [8:22] And obviously, they are now in a position where if they don't go back to the table here pretty soon, [8:26] they're going to be feeling a lot of hurt. [8:27] They've already felt that in their military and all their production facilities for their drones and ballistic missiles and everything else, [8:34] their navy, which has been completely destroyed. [8:37] But now we're talking about their economy. [8:39] And that has something that has real implications for the Iranian people. [8:44] And hopefully, the pressure will start to build on their leadership to make a deal. [8:47] Now, there is, of course, another line of thinking here. [8:50] Take a listen to this analysis on The Economist podcast, suggesting the U.S. may be underestimating Iran's ability to weather the storm. [8:58] My concern is Iran can endure months of this pressure. [9:02] You know, it can print money. [9:03] It can sell something like 100 million barrels of oil. [9:06] It has some floating storage off Malaysia or China. [9:09] And it can get credit lines off some of its buyers. [9:13] So, all in all, my concern is this will take far longer to essentially bring Iran to its knees than I think Donald Trump can stomach. [9:22] Right now, this isn't just a standoff at sea. [9:25] It's a test of economic endurance. [9:27] The U.S. betting that pressure will break Iran. [9:30] Tehran betting Washington will blink first. [9:32] And caught in the middle, a global economy that's already feeling the strain. [9:37] Well, control of the Strait of Hormuz was not one of America's original reasons for launching its war on Iran. [9:43] Now, it's pushed the war into an unpredictable and potentially dangerous phase. [9:49] Rosalind Jordan reports. [9:52] U.S. President Donald Trump says imposing a blockade on Iran after more than six weeks of bombings is a matter of national security. [10:00] We can't let a country blackmail or extort the world because that's what they're doing. [10:07] They're really blackmailing the world. [10:09] We're not going to let that happen. [10:10] Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz right after the war started on February 28th, charging friendly countries a fee to let their ships through while denying passage to those linked to its enemies, the U.S. and Israel. [10:25] Now, Washington has responded with economic warfare of its own, following the collapse of last weekend's peace talks in Pakistan. [10:32] Thank you. [10:33] Its goal? Shutting down Iranian oil and gas exports, which make up 80 percent of its export income. [10:41] Another aircraft carrier is joining the blockade, which can be seen as an extension of Trump's long-running maximum pressure campaign on Iran, [10:50] using sanctions to starve the Iranian economy, thus putting pressure on negotiators to concede. [10:57] Experts question whether the blockade will draw the U.S. military deeper into the conflict. [11:02] As the U.S. found out during two wars with the British, controlling the waterways is a big key to victory. [11:10] But Trump's decision to impose a blockade shows a decided shift in his war policy, a choice to use a vital strait as a weapon against Iran, [11:20] even at the risk to global security and economic stability. [11:25] Back on March 20th, Washington gave Tehran an olive branch. [11:29] It would let Iran deliver some 140 million barrels of oil already in transit and collect the payments, [11:37] the idea being this could also help stabilize global energy prices. [11:41] But now, the U.S.-Iranian struggle over control of the Strait of Hormuz can only mean one thing, [11:48] prolonged economic pain on the rest of the world. [11:50] So, what does that pain look like then for Iran? [11:58] Oil accounts for 80% of the Iranian government's export earnings. [12:02] Before the U.S. naval blockade, Iran was exporting 1.5 million barrels a day. [12:08] An effective blockade zeroes that out instantly. [12:10] Iran is now losing up to $276 million a day in exports. [12:15] That's $8.28 billion a month. [12:19] All the while, oil is piling up in storage. [12:22] It's believed Iran only has around 11 days of storage space left. [12:27] And after that, wells may have to start shutting down, risking permanent damage. [12:33] Will the new U.S. strategy in the strait work then to end the war? [12:36] Joining us to discuss today is economist Alan Tunnelson [12:39] and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, PJ Crowley. [12:43] Thank you both for joining me today. [12:45] Alan, I'll start with you. [12:46] Ships are still getting through. [12:48] Is the blockade working? [12:50] Ships are still getting through, but very soon, if not starting today, [12:56] none of those ships are going to be carrying cargo that comes from Iran, [13:03] and that's going to further cripple Iran's already crippled economy. [13:08] And it's going to put mounting pressure on Tehran. [13:14] Now, whether this is going to eventually, whatever the time frame you think is applicable, [13:21] is going to result in the kind of a comprehensive deal that President Trump seems to want, [13:27] I'm not certain about that. [13:29] At the same time, I'm not at all certain that that's what the United States needs, [13:34] because, in my view, the United States has already accomplished its essential aims [13:39] of severely degrading Iran's nuclear program [13:43] and severely degrading Iran's various conventional means of projecting power overseas. [13:50] That's all that we really need, [13:52] and I think that even in the absence of a larger deal, [13:56] the U.S. military has enough power to enforce what will turn out to be a very acceptable status quo, [14:05] if not entirely satisfactory. [14:08] Alan, your thoughts? [14:09] I saw you listening intently there, [14:10] and I know Alan took a couple of different points out there [14:14] about whether this was going to be an effective mechanism in resolving the war here, [14:18] but is the blockade working the way the U.S. projects that it intended it to? [14:21] From a U.S. military standpoint, the blockade is very straightforward. [14:25] You've got a relatively confined space. [14:28] You've got just a few ships trying to find their way through the strait. [14:34] It is very easy, and in fact, so far, [14:36] we've seen Iranian ships already turn around and return to port. [14:40] So the blockade can work. [14:43] The question is, to what end? [14:45] Alan raised the point of what is the United States actually seeking? [14:49] Is it a comprehensive deal? [14:52] That's not something that can easily be accomplished [14:54] in the time pressures that we're talking about. [14:57] As part of the Obama administration, [15:00] we started the process in 2009, [15:03] got to the finish line in 2015, [15:06] for a variety of reasons. [15:08] So can the two sides come together [15:10] in this kind of time constraint, [15:13] under this pressure? [15:14] That remains to be seen. [15:16] Alan, in terms of an effective blockade then, [15:18] it is, or it appears to be at this stage, [15:20] largely due to compliance. [15:23] There are plenty of ships out there that are not Iranian-flagged ships. [15:26] They're from Hong Kong, China. [15:28] I had a look today. [15:28] There's Panama all in a line. [15:30] Now, the U.S. military or Navy [15:32] cannot effectively jump aboard all of those ships [15:35] if they all decided to sail straight through, could they? [15:37] No, but it can establish deterrence. [15:41] And as we've seen from- [15:43] Militarily? [15:44] It can establish enough hesitation [15:47] in the minds of those shippers [15:50] and those companies [15:52] to prevent many of them from even trying. [15:55] And we saw this when, of course, [15:58] Iran decided to institute its own blockade [16:01] several weeks ago. [16:02] The Iranian Navy didn't have the ability [16:05] to stop every single ship. [16:06] It didn't need that. [16:07] And the United States Navy, [16:08] which is much stronger, [16:10] won't need that either. [16:11] PJ, Iran's losses at the moment, [16:14] imports and exports, [16:15] totaling estimates around $13 billion a month. [16:18] But this is a nation that has lived [16:20] through years of sanctions so far. [16:21] And the pain point for America [16:23] is not the pain point of Iran. [16:25] So does Iran have a breaking point [16:27] if this blockade remains in place? [16:29] There's no question [16:30] that there would be [16:30] an economic breaking point. [16:32] The question is how far [16:34] into the future that is. [16:36] And then, you know, conversely, [16:38] what is Donald Trump's political, [16:40] you know, threshold, you know, [16:43] for pain in the intervening time? [16:46] That's, you know, [16:46] who's going to blink first? [16:48] Who can live through the pain? [16:50] That's the essential question [16:51] as we continue through this conflict. [16:53] Do you have an estimate on time [16:54] for how long you think Iran can last? [16:56] I agree with the economist [16:58] in the opening piece. [16:59] I think that the Iran [17:00] has shown an ability [17:01] to withstand pain, [17:04] you know, for a significant, [17:05] you know, period of time. [17:07] But we'll, I mean, we'll, [17:09] again, we'll see. [17:10] To me, the essential question [17:12] is whether Trump is looking [17:14] for some sort of interim arrangement [17:16] that allows for an off-ramp [17:18] from this conflict. [17:19] But if he's looking [17:20] for the maximalist negotiation positions [17:23] that, you know, [17:24] originally with the Trump [17:26] during the first term, [17:26] that's going to be a very, [17:28] very hard lift. [17:29] Yeah. [17:30] Vice President J.D. Vance [17:31] has said Iran would be wise [17:33] to accept the U.S. deal [17:34] to avoid any further pain. [17:38] We are going to make Iran thrive. [17:40] We're going to make it [17:41] economically prosperous. [17:42] And we're going to invite [17:43] the Iranian people [17:44] into the world economy [17:45] in a way they haven't been [17:46] in my entire life. [17:47] And that's the kind of [17:49] Trumpian grand bargain [17:50] that the president [17:51] has put on the table. [17:52] Man, we're going to keep [17:53] on negotiating [17:53] and try to make it happen [17:54] because it would be great [17:55] for the world. [17:57] Alan, Donald Trump's [17:59] betting here [17:59] that the lower economic threshold [18:01] will hurt Iran [18:02] before it hurts America. [18:03] Is that a bet [18:04] that you would make? [18:06] I would make that bet. [18:07] I wouldn't make that [18:08] with an incredible amount [18:09] of confidence. [18:10] But I find it very revealing [18:12] that soon after [18:13] President Trump [18:14] expressed confidence [18:16] that U.S. gas prices [18:20] at the pump in particular [18:22] would fall very rapidly [18:23] once this war ended, [18:24] whenever that would be, [18:26] he's now saying [18:27] that those gas prices [18:29] are likely to stay high [18:31] at least through [18:31] this coming summer, [18:33] which is, of course, [18:34] the peak driving season [18:36] each year [18:37] and possibly longer. [18:38] So it seems that [18:41] he's ignoring at this point [18:44] or at least downplaying [18:45] the likely domestic politics [18:50] of this policy, [18:52] although they clearly [18:53] don't look good [18:54] for the Republican Party [18:55] at this point. [18:57] That's domestically. [18:58] PJ, of course, [18:59] friends and foes [19:00] around the world here, [19:01] allies in particular, [19:02] pretty unhappy about, [19:04] well, the strait [19:04] being closed [19:05] in the first place, [19:05] but also no further [19:07] movement towards [19:08] it opening. [19:08] In fact, everything [19:09] sort of seems [19:09] to be constricting here. [19:11] Can I ask you, [19:12] will President Trump [19:14] be a little reluctant [19:15] then to pick up [19:16] the phone with the UK [19:17] and other European nations [19:18] calling him at the moment? [19:19] How will that relationship [19:20] be looking? [19:21] I mean, this is the paradox [19:22] of Donald Trump. [19:24] A normal American leader [19:26] as the leader [19:27] of the free world [19:28] would be very attentive [19:29] to the views [19:31] and tribulations [19:32] of his closest allies. [19:35] Donald Trump doesn't care. [19:37] So I don't think [19:38] that he's going to be swayed [19:40] by convincing arguments [19:42] by some of what he considers [19:45] his friends or frenemies. [19:48] I think he's going to be [19:50] strictly focused on [19:51] what is the situation [19:52] here in the United States, [19:54] you know, [19:54] the political pressures [19:55] that he may or may not feel [19:57] from the Congress [19:58] or from the American people. [20:00] That's going to drive [20:01] his decision making. [20:02] Yeah. [20:03] Alan, [20:03] if another nation [20:05] like France, [20:06] for instance, [20:07] as an example, [20:07] wants to do a deal [20:08] with Iran, [20:09] wants to make [20:09] some kind of trade there, [20:10] what claim does [20:11] the United States have [20:13] to block that trade? [20:14] U.S. national interests, [20:17] which always are number one, [20:19] are the number one consideration [20:21] above everything else [20:22] when it comes to making [20:24] any country's foreign policy. [20:26] So they don't have a claim [20:27] to block that? [20:28] I don't understand [20:29] what claim actually means. [20:32] I mean, [20:32] certainly we're not talking [20:34] about international law, [20:36] which is, [20:38] as every adult observer [20:43] of global politics knows, [20:46] is honoured in the breach [20:49] at very best [20:49] by virtually every major power. [20:52] I think it's going [20:53] to be exclusively, [20:55] and in fact should be exclusively, [20:57] a matter of which country [20:59] can impose its will [21:01] most effectively. [21:02] And at this point, [21:02] it's clearly the United States. [21:04] Okay. [21:05] China, [21:05] often considered [21:06] a pragmatic world power, [21:07] but also an ally of Iran, [21:09] has hit out [21:10] at the U.S. blockade. [21:11] Take a listen. [21:15] The U.S. increased [21:16] military deployment [21:17] and targeted blockade actions [21:19] will only intensify [21:20] contradictions, [21:21] heightened tensions, [21:23] undermine the already [21:24] fragile ceasefire, [21:25] and further impact [21:26] the safety of navigation [21:27] in the strait. [21:29] This is dangerous [21:29] and irresponsible behaviour. [21:32] China believes [21:32] that only by achieving [21:34] a comprehensive ceasefire [21:35] and end of hostilities [21:37] can conditions [21:38] be fundamentally created [21:39] to ease the situation [21:41] in the strait. [21:42] P.J., how much does [21:44] the situation [21:45] in the strait [21:45] risk a confrontation [21:46] between the U.S. [21:47] and China? [21:48] I think this is actually [21:49] a potential safety valve. [21:52] You know, [21:52] Donald Trump has [21:53] an important meeting [21:53] coming up with [21:54] President Xi next month, [21:55] and I think he's probably [21:58] wants to go to Beijing [22:01] having resolved this [22:02] as opposed to [22:03] going to Beijing [22:04] and being lectured [22:05] about this. [22:08] The dilemma here [22:09] is as the United States [22:11] tries to impose [22:12] its will on Iran, [22:15] China's taking close notes [22:16] in terms of whether [22:17] down the road [22:18] it wishes to impose [22:19] its will on Taiwan. [22:22] So there is a precedent [22:23] that we are establishing [22:25] here that has [22:27] long-term implications. [22:29] It's also not quite clear [22:30] how this is practically [22:31] meant to work [22:31] if it goes on [22:32] for any length of time, right? [22:33] I mean, how would [22:34] a U.S. naval ship [22:35] out there at the moment [22:36] even prove [22:37] whether a vessel [22:39] had paid an Iranian toll [22:40] or not? [22:41] I think that [22:42] that would be up [22:43] to that vessel [22:44] to show that [22:45] it hasn't paid one. [22:46] An absence of evidence, [22:48] though, is not proof [22:48] either way. [22:49] Again, we're not [22:51] talking about [22:51] courts of law here. [22:53] We're talking about [22:53] the United States [22:54] imposing its will [22:55] to advance [22:56] its own national interest. [22:58] And by the way, [22:59] all the other countries [23:00] that have been so critical, [23:02] especially U.S. allies [23:03] of this war, [23:05] need to ask themselves [23:06] what kind of blackmail [23:09] from Iran [23:09] would they have been exposed to [23:11] had these military operations [23:14] not taken place [23:15] with Tehran [23:17] continuing to build [23:18] its offensive missile arsenal [23:21] and with it continuing [23:22] to make further progress [23:24] in its nuclear program. [23:27] That's a huge hypothetical, [23:28] though, isn't it? [23:29] That's a huge hypothetical [23:30] reliant on the basis [23:31] that law is the only answer. [23:33] Why else? [23:34] Well, it often, [23:36] tragically, [23:37] it often is, [23:39] but why else would Iran [23:40] be building [23:42] such enormous [23:43] offensive military capabilities? [23:47] I mean, I'm not Iran, [23:48] so I can't answer that. [23:49] But, PJ, [23:49] you might have an opinion [23:50] on that. [23:50] Fair enough. [23:51] Many of the origins [23:52] of where Iran is today [23:54] go back to the Iran-Iraq war [23:56] in the 1980s. [23:59] And Iran felt itself [24:01] isolated at that point. [24:03] And particularly, [24:04] the nuclear program [24:05] came initially [24:06] in its origins [24:07] as a counterbalance [24:08] to the Iraqi nuclear program. [24:12] But, I mean, [24:13] fast forward to today, [24:14] I do think that we have [24:15] the contours of a deal [24:17] that are visible. [24:19] The real question is, [24:20] what is the United States [24:22] going to give Iran [24:23] in return [24:24] for any concession [24:26] that Iran makes [24:28] on missiles, [24:29] on nuclear, [24:30] on proxies? [24:32] You know, [24:32] to J.D. Vance's point [24:34] about bringing Iran [24:35] into the economy, [24:37] I mean, [24:37] one of the intriguing questions here [24:39] is Iran now has [24:40] an economic card [24:41] it didn't have before. [24:42] It can charge a toll. [24:44] And the Strait of Hormuz. [24:45] Is that going to be [24:46] the way in which [24:46] they gain reparations [24:48] so they can rebuild [24:50] their country? [24:51] That's an interesting proposition, [24:53] one that Trump [24:53] as a businessman [24:54] might find attractive [24:55] or at least understandable. [24:57] But that will also [24:58] levy a new expense [25:00] on the global economy [25:01] that we haven't had before. [25:03] I want to make things [25:03] fair to the end [25:04] of this here, Alan. [25:05] So just quickly, [25:06] and then PJU as well, [25:08] do you see the bloc [25:09] lasting to the end [25:10] of the current ceasefire? [25:12] Oh, absolutely. [25:12] No question about that. [25:15] PJ? [25:16] I think the blockade [25:17] will lead to [25:18] an extension [25:19] of the ceasefire. [25:20] Where the negotiation [25:21] goes from there [25:22] remains to be seen. [25:24] Alan Tunnelson, [25:25] economist, [25:25] thank you very much [25:26] for joining us. [25:26] And PJ Crowley, [25:27] former U.S. Assistant [25:28] Secretary of State [25:29] for Public Affairs. [25:31] Those shifting strategies [25:32] around the Strait of Hormuz [25:34] are being picked apart. [25:35] Online, Alex Baird [25:36] has this roundup [25:37] of the conversation [25:38] on social media. [25:39] The Strait of Hormuz. [25:42] A tale of two blockades. [25:44] The U.S. military [25:44] claiming all of Iran's [25:46] maritime trade [25:47] is at a standstill. [25:49] The response [25:49] from Iran's supporters [25:50] defiant online [25:51] with another viral [25:53] Lego video. [25:54] Hormuz hustle. [25:55] But White House [25:56] Deputy Chief of Staff [25:57] Stephen Miller [25:57] is adamant [25:58] that confidence [25:59] is misplaced. [26:00] With Iran now [26:01] in a box, [26:02] checkmate. [26:04] In Iran, [26:05] with the implementation [26:06] of this blockade [26:07] is the total resetting [26:09] of the American power dynamic [26:10] for the next 100 years. [26:13] Conservative journalist [26:14] Eric Doherty [26:15] rallying behind that [26:16] saying Iran's economy [26:17] is on the brink of collapse [26:18] and its currency [26:19] is on the brink of collapse. [26:22] Mead Maliki [26:23] is one of the brains [26:23] behind the sanctions [26:24] on Iran. [26:25] He believes [26:26] Trump's blockade [26:27] will bring Iran's oil industry [26:28] to its knees [26:29] within two weeks. [26:31] Iran's going to run out [26:32] of the ability [26:33] to store oil [26:34] and then they're going [26:35] to have to drop [26:35] their extraction. [26:36] That take [26:37] has been big online [26:38] with Maliki's assessment [26:39] that Iran is hemorrhaging [26:40] $435 million [26:43] every day [26:44] in economic damage. [26:47] Others watching [26:47] from the sidelines [26:49] many Americans [26:50] confused [26:51] what any of this [26:52] actually means. [26:53] Flip the coin [26:54] and some see it [26:55] as a game [26:56] of economic terrorism. [26:58] The US [26:59] and Iran [27:00] playing at either end [27:01] of a table. [27:03] The Institute [27:03] for the Study of War [27:04] saying Iran [27:05] is now pledging [27:06] to open new fronts [27:07] and increase [27:08] its economic pressure [27:09] on the United States. [27:11] Mario Norfal [27:12] saying the latest blockade [27:13] is off to an effective start. [27:15] All eyes [27:16] now on Tehran [27:17] or they push back [27:18] or keep playing it safe. [27:23] Well that's all [27:23] from the team [27:24] here in Washington DC [27:25] where we've been looking [27:26] at the shifting strategies [27:27] of the White House. [27:28] On This Is America [27:29] we'll keep following [27:30] the decisions [27:31] that shape the US [27:32] and influence the world. [27:34] If you want to catch up [27:36] on this episode [27:37] or previous ones [27:38] you can head to our website [27:39] aljazeera.com [27:40] or check out [27:42] our YouTube channel. [27:43] For now [27:44] we'll hand back [27:44] to Al Jazeera's [27:45] global headquarters [27:46] in Doha. [27:48] Thanks for joining us [27:49] and we'll see you again [27:50] tomorrow.