SHOCKING SHIFT: New inflation report just CHANGED the outlook

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: we had the worst inflation in history and the history of our country i mean we had months where it was nine and ten percent and now we have a report just came out it was just released thank you for bringing it up but the report was incredible inflation is way down that means prices are coming way down and we're doing a great job remember that because nobody else could do it prices are way down prices are coming way down and we're going to bring them much lower [00:00:36] Speaker 2: the president says the tide is turning prices are finally moving in the right direction but he says the job isn't done yet promising americans even lower prices ahead welcome to the big money show everyone i'm jackie deangelis along with my co-host taylor riggs lydia who and brian bremberg with us for the hour rose cliff founder and managing partner mike murphy great to see you the president is pointing to that inflation is easing after yesterday's cooler than expected cpi report today's wholesale inflation report showed producer prices fell more than expected in june led by a shop a sharp drop in gasoline prices meanwhile new fed chairman kevin warsch is on capitol hill for a second day of testimony and he says the federal reserve is determined to get to that two percent goal so taylor i'll come to you first do it numbers on the wholesale inflation numbers mirroring what we saw yesterday with cpi and this idea that two percent is the target the core number is not far away from that which is good news and we know a lot of this hinges on oil prices which are elevated again because of the recent um sort of you know kicking up the dust in the middle east and in that conflict so your thoughts on how quickly we could get to a two percent target given the situation the way it is so i'm glad that you talked about oil prices [00:01:53] Speaker 3: because it came for uh data for you just on this because i was thinking okay oil prices came down in june that's why we saw the big decline in ppi and cpi on headline numbers i was like oh no but what about july good news for you there the average uh brent price in june was 85 okay the average so far in july is 78 to 81. it's still lower the average in july than it was in june wti average in june 82. 82 average wti so far in july 73 to 75. wow so you've seen you know big spikes up big spikes down i think you're seeing more volatility in july but on average the numbers are still lower so why is that good news because when we talk about headline numbers i was thinking okay you got a big decline in june it's going to rise back up in july it may not now we still have the second half of july to get through but so far again that sort of gave me hope that we may not get that big spike maybe this is more than just one month maybe this is more to come well even um and i'll let you finish [00:03:05] Speaker 2: after this but even if you're our 73 average for the first 15 days of july gets back to the june average of 82 which is what took us down that leaves us a lot of room also exactly and it could still [00:03:15] Speaker 3: leave us flat month over month on that headline if you're just looking at energy you're not going to see a big spike the only sort of um maybe wrinkle i'll throw in here about sort of how it makes consumers feel and i know that you guys hate the surveys but i'm coming with the survey and then we'll debate um usaa federal savings bank did a survey not on how people are feeling but what they're actually doing more than 1000 individuals were surveyed 35 percent said that they are now redeeming credit card rewards for everyday purchases so i'm not going on my credit card and redeeming rewards to travel i'm redeeming that credit card to buy my groceries at the store so to me that just shows a little bit of how consumers at home are trying to make some ends meet i throw that out there we can debate that but i don't like seeing that i'd rather people hold their points and travel not say i'm redeeming my points because i have to pay off my grocery bill just throw that out there for food for thought okay [00:04:17] Speaker 2: well let's stick with that for a moment um because the big banks also reported lydia and um i mean it was strong across the board for a lot of different reasons um which as taylor was talking about yesterday kind of give us a signal that the underlying economy is strong but having said that they also made some comments about the consumer and the consumer being stronger so when you take those comments and juxtapose them with the survey feelings or what consumers say they're doing how do you think things are really holding up i always say as long as consumers have jobs which we're employed yeah we are in this country they'll continue to spend money on necessities and possibly more if they have it yeah and i think [00:04:54] Speaker 4: well you know we're going to get a better picture tomorrow when we get the retail data out because comes in the morning but i do come equipped with some information from bank of america they have a report that uh out about consumer spending and they they expect to hear tomorrow robust june retail sales report which would bode well and indicate that consumers are still spending they do call it a truly quote messi report m-e-s-s-i in reference to soccer i'm glad you spell what they did there yes i'm always down for a good pun so shout out to bank of america lionel messi he's playing yeah he's gonna play today at 3 p.m so it's worth words are lost on me it's worth watching today but to get back to the consumer on all of this they are expecting some robust spending uh they're tracking not only all the credit card data that they have access to because they are the bank for so many of us um but they are also saying that this could be you know kind of a pull through because of all the world cup enthusiasm and also they're crediting amazon prime spending so the question moving forward is was this kind of like a one-time strong you know a lot of spending happening because of just seasonal activities or is the consumer actually spending because they have the money to spend they are showing a lot of spending happening on credit cards they're expecting they say that that's up 16 year over year but one thing that they are tracking a lot is athletic and sporting goods so those are kind of you know things that you want to have you don't necessarily need to have those things so i would say that that seems to be a good [00:06:18] Speaker 2: thing too but okay stuff to look out for tomorrow on inflation brian kevin warsch saying he wants to get to the two percent target that's like yay wow because i would say over the last five six years under biden's inflation with the which the president referenced at nine percent in june of 2022 we haven't been near a two percent target in quite some time we even talked about unofficially sort of getting rid of the two percent target and readjusting it to around three and calling that a normalization point but they're serious about getting these numbers on track and they're very close within the range so if the oil price gets under control in a sustainable long-term way you will get back to two [00:06:53] Speaker 5: percent i think it looks good i mean june oil prices got under control we saw good news on inflation kevin warsch was supposed to be president trump's puppet right he was supposed to be the low interest rates at all cost guy the political guy he was going to be taking phone calls from the president all the time and doing what he says he has been awesome in these hearings with congress he has been sedate he has not been cheering the latest data like we are over president trump in his little oval office things that prices are coming way down they're all we've kicked inflation okay he's the politician there talking about what he would like to see kevin warsch is talking about what's actually happening and it's good okay so i i'm with you if the president can do his job on iran and hormuz okay and get oil flowing and kevin warsch can do his job which we are very clear on what his job is and that is to get inflation down to two percent we are going to be in a very good spot these guys are playing in their respective spheres and that's what you want to see the fed should recede okay they shouldn't be so important in our economy and it should come down to real business activity i think warsch is totally on board with [00:08:07] Speaker 6: that murph i was going to just listen to brian be so positive i love that mr sunshine today man come on so i think kevin warsch i think is a big piece of this puzzle and it's great to have someone in that seat now that seems pro-business that seems like they understand the big picture and where the country needs to get to and it seems like he's all business to get us there so i think that's great on the inflation numbers and the polls and and the the data that comes out i think a big part of this is people see headlines or read headlines about how good things are and that snowballs or about how bad things are and that also snowballs it impacts people and regardless of the numbers that are coming out i think i've kind of been sticking with this message people feel good in this country people are spending money people are going to continue to spend money and a lot of that has to do i think from the top down they feel good about being an american and there's less uh things to apologize for and less wokeism in the country so i think the consumer feels good and the economy is in a very good spot and [00:09:16] Speaker 2: could be in a great spot and all things considered then um given what you just said and given the bank earnings yesterday and we'll get more earnings um you know stocks have been on fire little pullback for some of the tech companies but that's to be expected when you keep reaching record highs all the time i'm not too worried about it um the runway is set for an incredibly strong robust half of the year but i go back to this around conflict and say we do need resolution we we do but uh you know we're so [00:09:44] Speaker 6: so we're six months in the president said it would be six weeks we're six months into what's going to be a resolution at some point in our favor that makes the world a safer place makes global business easier to do so the the outcome is going to be a huge win for everyone in the world except for iran whether that comes tomorrow or in a few weeks or even in a few months i still think it's a win for us so okay um and i think the market is pricing that victory in already so it's not um yeah tomorrow would be better but we're we're going to get there one way or the other you know what can i just add [00:10:17] Speaker 5: something too because uh we talked about president trump's oval office thing there but he sat down with trade yankst last night and one thing he said that i think was important i haven't heard him say yet is he he said to trade look we're gonna we're gonna do with around what we need to do but everybody in that region is trying to get away from the strait he said that last night his point was all these countries are building pipelines you've got saudi arab you got iraq you got uae and and so that like that just bodes in terms of what we're doing with iran and i'm looking at oil wti 78 jackie 78 and we've hammered iran how many nights in a row and we're going to do it again and the president's talking about bridges and power plants next week and we're at 78 that again it's just more evidence [00:11:02] Speaker 2: that there's a sea change in the world you're on to something unintended because i've been saying not intent i don't trust any tentacles of this regime but maybe it doesn't matter maybe the strategy ultimately makes them completely irrelevant if you're pushing countries away from that straight and that straight is no longer an area of power for them or sort power source for them anymore then they end up shooting themselves in the foot if they want to stay they can stay it's such a good point we beat them militarily you know when they strike us and the president to your point is talking about a new military strategy next week the only thing i'm concerned about with that is the potential for a little bit more volatility murphy says a win a victory is being priced into the market i wonder what the volatility might do in the short term that's all well you're the volatility master [00:11:49] Speaker 5: i just i just i feel like the volatility in all this has gone down we the mix is at 16 that's what i'm [00:11:55] Speaker 3: saying so below the average so 18 early in this thing lots of all we do something it was like oh my [00:12:01] Speaker 5: gosh the world's changing and now we're doing things and the volatilities is shrinking shrinking because they are becoming like they don't matter right they don't matter the whole point is you can crush them or not question but if they don't matter it doesn't make a difference right and they seem to matter so i like that trend right now yeah all right um