SHOCK FORECAST: Major oil call is turning EVERYONE'S head

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: WELCOME BACK, OIL PRICES ARE BELOW $77 A BARREL, TAKE A LOOK AT $76.68 AS PLANNED TALKS IN SWITZERLAND OVER THE IRAN DEAL HAVE BEEN POSTPONED. VICE PRESIDENT J.D. VANCE WILL NOT BE TRAVELING TO SWITZERLAND TODAY AS PLANNED. BUT THE VICE PRESIDENT SAYS 12.5 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF HORMOOZE IN ONE DAY. WATCH. [00:00:24] Speaker 2: 12.5 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL WENT THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF HORMOOZE. THAT IS A HIGH SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT. OIL PRICES ARE DOWN NEARLY AT THEIR LEVEL FROM THE PRE-WAR CONFLICT. GAS PRICES DROPPED BELOW $4 A GALLON TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE CONFLICT. SO FAR THEY ARE HONORING THEIR END OF THE COMMITMENT. ON THE BLOCKADE, CENTCOM HAS ALLOWED NORTH OF A DOZEN SHIPS TO GO THROUGH OUR NAVAL BLOCKADE [00:00:51] Speaker 1: AND SO WE ARE ALSO HONORING OUR END OF THE EARLY PART OF THE AGREEMENT. OUR END OF THE GROUND. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THE GROUND. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THE GROUND. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THE GROUND. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF THE GROUND. [00:01:06] Speaker 3: WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF OIL. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF A LITTLE BIT OF THE GROUND. WE'VE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF A LITTLE BIT OF Maria, and we did say 30, 60 days ago, the mint is open up, and it's opened up, that the price is going to drop $20 a barrel. And now, yesterday, it was as low as 74. I guess they're taking the weekend off, and Monday morning, I think the next stop for oil is probably $65 a barrel, and the price of gasoline in the United States should go down to under $3 a gallon, and energy costs will go down. Now, the other thing is interest rates. Now, interest rates, I mean, there's all kinds of people that are putting pressure on interest rates. They're going to go up. They're going to go up. They're going to do this. They're going to do that. Well, the new chairman, I believe he's committed to do the right thing, and that interest rates will go down. Because, you know, everybody's talking about. [00:02:11] Speaker 1: Hold on. John's shot is obviously shaky, but listen to what he just said. A minute ago, he said that he thinks oil, the next stop is $65 a barrel. Crude is at 76.68, and John Katz and Antetides is expecting this decline to keep going to 65, Cheryl. [00:02:30] Speaker 4: By the fall, that is a very realistic range for over oil, and look, that's where we were before the conflict began. If the strait stays open, if the Iranians, you know, continue, of course, to, or at least not try to toll ships that are going through there, you know, that'll be obviously a win for the Trump administration. You know, the market, though, has been calm, cool, and collected through this entire conflict, Marie. And I think that's been evident in the record after record that we have seen for the Dow, the S&P, for the NASDAQ, and again, with oil prices. I mean, because look, we dropped, what, 15 bucks the minute that things got better, and we looked like we had a deal between the Trump administration and Iran. So, you know, look, the market's on fire, Marie. You've talked about it. We've had quite the rally with so many pieces of good news, and if, again, if this 60-day ceasefire, this agreement holds, this memorandum of understanding, it stays in place, then 60 bucks, absolutely. I agree with Katz. [00:03:30] Speaker 1: I think, Todd, you know, this 60-day period is really what is what we need to be watching and how the Iranians react. I mean, we saw what Khomeini said. He's obviously at odds with the president of Iran who wants to move forward and do a deal with President Trump and the administration. Your reaction? [00:03:49] Speaker 5: Yeah, it does call into question the staying power of the seal, like, who's in charge, who signed it? I think all those things are still open questions. For me, this was a necessary move to kind of show the world, hey, we can lower prices. But again, Maria, my concern, none of this matters if prices are still high heading into early voting in October. Because, let's face it, you can't really impact inflation in any other area. It's not like, you know, eggs are falling to a dollar, right? That's not going to happen. GAS, you can. And you have to give the American voters something tangible. That's why this was a shrewd move. But it needs to stay a shrewd move between now and November. And my fear is that if we go back to fighting, it's not, it's not going to improve. It's going to get worse. And, you know, that's going to hurt Republicans come November. [00:04:39] Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the president would like to see oil and gas down, certainly before the midterm elections. But his priority is ensuring that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. Of course, of course. But national gas prices are now at their lowest level since March. Regular gas, gasolene right now is under $4. That's down 56 cents from a month ago. Following the signing of that 60-day memorandum of understanding to open the strait. Karina, I want to get your take on what's happening in New York with Momdani. Because, of course, this is another issue that we're all talking about every day. The New York City Mayor Momdani testing his political clout in Brooklyn last night at a rally for progressive congressional candidates. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was there. Momdani did not hold back his true feelings about the Democrat Party. Watch this. [00:05:28] Speaker 6: For far too long, our party has seen its job as managing decline instead of delivering material change for working people. It has seen its job as explaining why we cannot instead of showing how we can. And that old way of thinking we'll lose on Tuesday. We need a Democratic Party with backbone. We need a Democratic Party that offers an affirmative agenda without apology. [00:06:01] Speaker 7: Karine, your thoughts? Look, there's one thing that he is right about. There is a vacuum in the Democratic Party. And that's why you have this pernicious socialism filling it in. And look, we have to be honest about this. Janice Lewis-George, Zoran Mamdani, they're compelling speakers. They've had energetic campaigners. They have energetic volunteers. And when there's nothing else that the Democrats are offering, well, it's pretty easy for bad ideas to seep in. [00:06:25] Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course, we spoke with Ro Khanna yesterday. It looks like he's trying to seep in and be the candidate, but he's also a progressive. Mm-hmm. [00:06:34] Speaker 4: Well, you know, Maria, that interview with Ro Khanna was amazing. As Stephanie Palmboy said, we all needed a cigarette after that was over yesterday. Very true. Yeah. But, you know, look, but absolutely, that was the piece of the interview that I really grabbed onto, because he absolutely is trying to set himself up for 2028. And look, it's going to be about affordability. And again, that's why we're talking about Zoran Mamdani, because that's what he grabbed onto here in New York City. They saw that, the elders of the party saw that, and they're going down that route, too. And Ro Khanna mentioned that to you yesterday, Maria. [00:07:06] Speaker 1: He said it, affordability. Sure did. All right. We will take a break and come right back at it. Stay with us. We'll be right back. You're watching Mornings with Maria live on Fox Business.