September jobs report is 'DISAPPOINTING,' expert says

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: LET'S DO ALL OF THIS WITH UNLEASH PROSPERITY CO-FOUNDER AND FORMER TRUMP ECONOMIC ADVISOR STEVE MOORE. STEVE, YOUR TAKE ON THESE NUMBERS. [00:00:08] Steve Moore: WELL, OBVIOUSLY IT'S A DISAPPOINTING NUMBER. I WAS HOPING FOR CLOSER TO 75 TO 100,000 JOBS, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A REALIGNMENT OF THE ECONOMY OVER THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF OR SO, AND THAT'S BEEN A DECLINE, A BIG DECLINE IN GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND A NICE BUMP UP IN PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT, WHICH BY THE WAY IT WAS ALMOST THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT WE WERE SEEING THROUGHOUT BIDEN'S FIRST FOUR YEARS IN OFFICE, WHERE YOU MAY RECALL EVERY TIME WE DO THIS REPORT, YOU KNOW, WE GET, SAY, 150,000 JOBS AND LIKE HALF OF THEM WERE GOVERNMENT JOBS. DID YOU KNOW, BY THE WAY, THE FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT IN WASHINGTON, D.C. IS LOWER TODAY THAN IT'S BEEN IN 50 YEARS. SO TRUMP IS DRAINING THE SWAMP. THE OTHER THING THAT I DON'T -- I DIDN'T SEE THE NUMBER FOR THE WAGE. WHAT HAPPENED TO REAL WAGES LAST MONTH, BECAUSE THAT'S HUGE. BECAUSE MY OPINION IS THAT WHAT WE HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES TODAY IS NOT A SHORTAGE OF JOBS. WE HAVE A SHORTAGE OF SKILLED WORKERS TO FILL THE JOBS. I MEAN, ASK ANY EMPLOYER IN CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING AND COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY, THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING THE PEOPLE TO FILL THE JOBS. [00:01:15] Speaker 1: I DO WANT TO TALK ABOUT SOMETHING THOUGH ABOUT THIS NEW BREAK EVEN JOB GROWTH WHERE A COUPLE YEARS AGO, AND I'M LOOKING AT THE CHART HERE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE IN 2024, MOST FED MEMBERS THOUGHT 150 TO 250 WAS THE BREAK EVEN JOB NUMBER. THE LATEST POLLING THAT WE HAVE SHOWS THAT THEY THINK IT'S ANYWHERE FROM ZERO TO 50 IN TERMS OF THE BREAK EVEN JOB GROWTH DRIVEN BY A SHARP DECLINE IN IMMIGRATION AND THE SHRINKING LABOR FORCE AND OF COURSE BABY BOOMER RETIREMENTS. DOES THAT HELP SORT OF EASE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT, AGAIN, IT'S JUST ONE MONTH, BUT IT IS SORT OF WEAKER THAN WHERE WE WANTED. HERE'S ONE BIG PROBLEM WITH THE U.S. ECONOMY, AND I THINK EJ AND THE OTHERS WOULD PROBABLY AGREE WITH THIS. WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST [00:01:54] Steve Moore: FIVE OR SIX YEARS, IS THAT THE LAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS AND THE LAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS, THE LAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS, THE LAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS OR LONGER, HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF MEN BETWEEN THE AGES OF 16 AND 35 IN THE WORKFORCE. AND THAT'S VERY TROUBLING. WE WANT YOUNG PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY YOUNG MALES, TO BE WORKING. AND AGAIN, I HAVEN'T SEEN THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE FROM TODAY'S REPORT. 61.8. BUT IT'S BEEN A GRADUAL SLIDE. WE'VE GOT TO GET MEN BACK IN THE WORKFORCE. YEAH. [00:02:29] Speaker 1: YOU KNOW, CHARLES, YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT BECAUSE YOU'VE BEEN HOT ON THAT. BUT AGAIN, IT'S SORT OF THE WAGE NUMBERS, TOO, THAT LOOKS SOFT TO ME. [00:02:35] Speaker 3: I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING STEVE SAID. YOU KNOW, AND THAT'S -- AND WHAT'S REALLY KIND OF EMBARRASSING ABOUT IT IS NOT NEW. WE'VE HEARD THIS FROM A LONG TIME. NOW, I'M NOT SURE IF PRIVATE SECTOR HAS BEEN WANTING GOVERNMENT TO DO IT AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN WANTING PRIVATE SECTOR TO DO IT. ALSO, WE SHOULD NOTE PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS ARE 46,000. THAT GETS CLOSER TO STEVE'S NUMBER, YOU MINUS OUT TO 17,000. 485 PEOPLE BACK IN THE LABOR FORCE, THAT MEANS PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED. YOU DON'T LOOK FOR A JOB IF YOU DON'T THINK YOU'RE GOING TO GET ONE. SO WE GOT SOME PRETTY GOOD THINGS. I GUESS FOR ME A RED FLAG WOULD BE TEMP, YOU KNOW, BEING NEGATIVE. SOMETIMES, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TEMP WORKERS BECOME PERMANENT WORKERS, I LIKE TO SEE THAT NUMBER POSITIVE. STEVE, DO YOU GET, YOU KNOW, INTERESTED IN A RISING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IF IT IS [00:03:15] Speaker 1: BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN THIS LABOR MARKET? THAT CAN LEAD TO A RISE IN THE RATE THAT COULD BE ACTUALLY A POSITIVE REASON BEHIND IT. YEAH, IN A KIND OF STRANGE KIND OF WAY, YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT ABOUT THAT. NOW, WHAT WAS THE NUMBER, WHAT, 400,000? 485. [00:03:31] Steve Moore: WHAT WAS THE NUMBER, 400,000? 485. WHAT WAS THE NUMBER, 400,000? THAT'S A HUGE NUMBER. THAT'S A GIGANTIC NUMBER. [00:03:40] Speaker 3: THAT'S MAYBE THE MOST [00:03:41] Steve Moore: IMPORTANT, THAT SHOULD BE THE HEADLINE OF THIS REPORT THAT HALF A MILLION NEW PEOPLE ENTERING THE WORKFORCE. I VIEW THAT AS VERY POSITIVE BECAUSE I SAID BEFORE, EMPLOYERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING THE WORKERS. NOW THEY'VE GOT A HALF A MILLION NEW ONES. SO I THINK THAT, THAT TURNS A NEGATIVE REPORT INTO MORE OF A POSITIVE REPORT TO ME. WE WANT TO -- I AGREE ON THAT BECAUSE THE WORKERS, NOW THEY'VE GOT A HALF A MILLION JOBS ADDED. [00:04:08] Speaker 4: I THINK, CURIOUS, YOUR THOUGHTS, IF WE LOOK AT MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT, HALF THE JOBS ADDED THERE WERE IN PLASTICS AND RUBBER. SO OIL DERIVATIVES. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT IN INFLATION-SENSITIVE ENVIRONMENT. BUT THEN MORE IMPORTANTLY, CONSTRUCTION, UP 11,000 JOBS. THIS IS THE 12-MONTH AVERAGES, 10,000 PER MONTH THERE. MOSTLY IN NON-RESIDENTIAL. SO POINTING TO DATA CENTERS, ACTUALLY ADDING JOBS, AI ADDING JOBS TO THE ECONOMY. DO YOU THINK THAT TREND CONTINUES AND WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT? STEVE, CAN YOU HEAR US? [00:04:38] Speaker ?: I GUESS YOU DON'T MAKE MUCH OF IT THERE. WE MUST HAVE LOST THE AUDIO. [00:04:42] Speaker 1: I THINK IT'S REALLY SIGNIFICANT. THE AI NARRATIVE HAS ALWAYS BEEN [00:04:48] Speaker 4: IT'S GOING TO DESTROY JOBS. WE'RE SEEING HERE IT'S ADDING IT IN CONSTRUCTION. STEVE, CAN YOU HEAR US? I DIDN'T REALIZE YOU WERE [00:04:55] Speaker 1: ASKING ME THAT QUESTION. YEAH, THAT'S A VERY POSITIVE [00:04:58] Steve Moore: THING. BY THE WAY, YOU KNOW WHAT ONE OF THE BIGGEST EMPLOYERS IS IN THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW? I DIDN'T REALIZE YOU WERE ASKING ME THAT QUESTION. I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY A LOT OF THESE COMMUNITIES SAY THEY DON'T WANT DATA CENTERS WHEN THEY'RE MAJOR NEW EMPLOYERS. AND BY THE WAY, THESE PEOPLE WORKING AT DATA CENTERS, I JUST VISITED ONE LAST MONTH. THESE PEOPLE ARE MAKING $75,000, $125,000 A YEAR. THEY'RE GOOD PAYING JOBS. AND BY THE WAY, THE DEMAND FOR DATA CENTERS CONTINUE TO RISE. I WILL SAY, I MEAN, YOU'RE GETTING A BIG REBOUND IN LEASURE AND HOSPITALITY. I MEAN, YOU'RE GETTING A BIG REBOUND IN LEASURE AND [00:05:32] Speaker 1: HOSPITALITY, BUT ALSO MANUFACTURING, SO RELEVANT AHEAD OF THESE MIDTERMS, MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS HERE IN AUGUST RISING THE MOST SINCE 2023. SO IT IS SORT OF THAT AI DATA BOOM. QUICK THOUGHTS, THOUGH, YOU HAVE A FEDERAL RESERVE THAT JUST HIKED INTEREST RATES, AND TO ME THAT KILLS HOUSING, CONSTRUCTION, YOU HAVE A FEDERAL RESERVE THAT JUST HIKED INTEREST RATES AND TO ME THAT KILLS HOUSING, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, MANUFACTURING FIRST AND FOREMOST. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT OR HOW IMPACTFUL WAS THAT RATE HIKE? AGAIN, AS YOU START TO SEE THE WAY IT WORKS ITSELF THROUGH THE SYSTEM INTO SOME OF THESE MANUFACTURING AND CONSTRUCTION JOBS. [00:06:09] Steve Moore: WELL, LISTEN, I THINK WE'VE GOT THE BEST FED CHAIRMAN WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG, LONG TIME. THE BEST FEDERAL RESERVE IS THAT HE IS COMPLETELY COMMITTED TO KEEPING INFLATION DOWN TO GETTING IT BACK DOWN TO BLOW 2%, HOPEFULLY CLOSER TO 0%. AND HE ALSO DOES NOT BELIEVE THAT GROWTH CAUSES INFLATION. MORE PEOPLE WORKING DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION AND THAT'S -- SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS GOING TO CHANGE HIS OPINION ABOUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT FED RATE HIKE. HE'S GOING TO GET THAT RATE DOWN. AND BY THE WAY, THE GAS PRICE HAS BEEN FALLING A BIT AND THAT'S BEEN A MAJOR DRIVER OF INFLATION OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS. [00:06:43] Speaker 1: I WILL SAY FED SWAPS RIGHT NOW JUST PRICING IN A 30% CHANCE OF A HIKE NOW IN OCTOBER. SO THAT IS COMING DOWN. STEVE MOORE, ALWAYS SO GREAT TO HAVE YOU. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSTANT ANALYSIS ON THIS. THANKS, GUYS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSTANT ANALYSIS ON THIS. THANKS, GUYS.