Rural rage at Trump, Talarico's midterm edge & more — Enten roundup

[0:00] president trump was just in iowa and one of the biggest shifts we've seen in terms of support [0:06] for the president has come within a voting group that is one of the hardest for me to say out loud [0:11] that's rural voters rural voters there have been big shifts among rural voters and their support [0:18] for the president with us now is cnn chief data analyst harriet jera yes it's hard it's a lot of [0:25] hours it's hard it's it's very very hard but the numbers here are extremely easy to understand [0:31] what are we talking about here well just take a look at this hello okay trump's not approval rating [0:36] among rural voters it was plus 23 points on the retrospective back in october of 2024. look at [0:42] where he is now with rural voters hello we're talking about 18 points underwater or under the [0:49] cornfields you might say that is a shift johnny b of what 41 points in the wrong direction a group [0:56] that has been a bedrock of republican campaigns during the 21st century and especially a bedrock [1:01] for donald john trump they have very much shifted against the president of the united states i feel [1:07] like this is a question i've asked before why why why why why johnny b has asked before and it is [1:13] because it is the same for many groups but it is especially true for rural americans take a look [1:19] at this okay oh rural adults oh oh johnny b says oh oh i mean this is what we're talking about look at [1:26] this versus kamala harris in 2024 donald trump was more trusted on the issue of inflation among rural [1:32] adults by 37 percentage points look at his net approval rating now it is 35 points under water i mean oh my [1:40] god you just don't really see shifts like this what are we talking about here johnny b we're talking [1:45] about a 72 point shift in the wrong direction rural voters rural americans very much running away [1:53] from president trump this is not a field of dreams this is a field of nightmares for the president united [1:58] states mirror image here and does it have an impact on others yes okay so it is a mirror image here it's [2:06] basically the inverse my goodness gracious plus 37 to minus 35 and this to me is what's so worrying [2:11] if you're a republican running for congress yes you are still leading with rural voters but the margin [2:17] has shrunk significantly what are we talking about rural voters for the u.s generic ballot plus 32 points [2:23] in october of 2024 look at this in january 2026 plus 30 points still basically holding but now down [2:30] to just plus 14 points of course what happened here well the iran war started and the gas price is very [2:35] much up went up a whole heck of a lot and that's been hitting rural voters in rural states very very [2:41] hard and it's a reminder you don't have to be underwater but you need to be running up the margins [2:44] among your key voting exactly right democrats going to be carrying urban areas by a lot they're carrying [2:49] suburban areas if republicans aren't wiping the floor with democrats in rural areas they're in a [2:53] whole lot of trouble let's talk about some states where this might matter in the senate race in the [2:57] prediction markets you don't mean used to be one of the biggest potato growing states in the country i did [3:01] not know that johnny b but what i do know is it's still one of the most rural states in the country [3:06] and we can take a look here the chance that troy jackson the democrat wins the main senate race look [3:11] at this it was 57 on october night the corner of the couch prediction markets two weeks ago look at [3:15] that that chance is up now it's about two and three look it's not a hundred percent this race is still [3:21] tight but troy jackson right now at least the nominal favorite in large part because of trump's [3:26] collapse with rural voters 435 seats that are up democrats need a net gain of three you can see at [3:31] the top of your screen right here in terms of control and what we are looking at right now is [3:36] advantaged democrats it's advantaged democrats you can see it right here okay the cook political report [3:41] right they rate races leaning likely solid for a party the race is to 218 and right now look at this [3:47] according to the cook political report 214 for democrats that are at least leaning their direction [3:52] versus just 200 for the republicans so again democrats need advantage why is that while we [3:57] want to focus in on one particular area of the country and one particular state we're going to go [4:02] to the heartland we're going to go to the great state of iowa and why are we going to iowa because [4:07] keep in mind donald trump on all four of the congressional districts in iowa but at this point look at this [4:13] we've got two districts we've got iowa's third district and look at this it is leaning democratic again [4:19] this is a district that donald trump won just two years ago and it's not the only district that's [4:25] leaning democratic we can go right next door let's go to iowa's first district again donald trump won in [4:31] the first district in iowa and yet is leaning democratic you can even go a little bit north in [4:36] iowa how about this one how about ios i was second congressional district again donald trump won here [4:43] and the best that republicans can do at this point is a toss-up so republicans have real heartland [4:50] problems we've been seeing in the polling data and it is very much the case in iowa at this point [4:55] just to reiterate that when you talk about iowa right now four republican seats currently it is [5:00] possible at least according to cook you could be down to one republican you could absolutely be down to [5:06] one republican seat and i think that iowa in this in this case is very much emblematic of what we are [5:12] seeing in the house level and the senate level as well which is donald trump has been dominating [5:18] dominating in the midwest he did so in 2024 he did so in 2016 remember iowa was a state that barack [5:26] obama carried twice but what we're seeing right now and we've seen in the polling data as well [5:31] is real problems for donald trump and his approval rating among the midwest voters we are seeing it in [5:37] the senate races and we are seeing it in the polling as well nationally where we see that donald trump [5:41] is really struggling with rural voters and if you know anything about iowa there are a few rural [5:45] voters in there are a few but of course at this point i think most of our eyes are focused in [5:50] on the united states senate right that's really what i think the question sort of is at this point [5:54] and i want you to take a look at some key senate race dem poll margins look at this these are all [5:59] states that donald trump won by 10 points just two years ago and look at this they're competitive [6:04] in kansas which of course hasn't had a democratic senator since 1932 or winning one [6:09] iowa up by a point though well within the margin of error texas james tallarico three-point advantage [6:14] in texas but again very very close alaska mary patola we're talking about three-point lead there [6:19] and then ohio sherrod brown up by four and these are all in states that donald trump won by at least [6:25] 10 points back in 2024 so what we're seeing is those national leads that democrats are having [6:31] including in our own cnn poll seem to be funneling down to the state level in these key senate races [6:37] i need the history here because so how how have polls with democrats leading trump yeah one in [6:43] trump one states how have they performed normally okay so i know a lot of our viewers i get this [6:50] question perhaps more than any other question which is can we trust the polls we feel like we've seen [6:56] this song or we've seen this dance before we've heard this song before and you know what there is [7:01] reason to be cautious there is reason to be cautious trust no one trust no one trust no one trust me [7:06] and trust my mother she was a great doctor that's what i'm talking about here there is a reason why [7:10] you should in fact be nervous if you're a democrat and perhaps be you know there's some reason for [7:15] a little excitement if you're a republican gop outperformed the final senate poll averages and i [7:19] want you to look by the state's prior presidential result ergo blue states the states that trump lost [7:25] and then the red states that trump won look at this the gop is far more likely to outperform their final [7:31] senate poll averages by 4.1 points in the states that trump won and we know in this election cycle [7:38] kate that the democrats need to win in a lot of trump states in order to win control the senate and [7:44] not just trump states but states that trump won by double digits back in 2024 so you see this 4.1 if [7:51] this was fought in blue states we really have not seen that republicans outperform their polls in the [7:56] blue states it's really concentrated in the red states we saw it in 2018 we saw it in 2020 we saw [8:01] it in 2022 we saw it in 2024 as well what's the term for this democratic overestimation or republican [8:09] underestimation that is the great question i'm not what do you think i tend to think that what's [8:14] probably going on is there are some republican voters who are simply put not getting picked up by [8:19] the polls so then what does it mean for the senate and what does it mean for the senate that is i think [8:23] the key question if in fact in if we have the 2026 senate map but you take the polling averages and [8:30] then you say that hey the republicans will outrun the polling averages by 4.1 points in the states [8:36] that trump won look at this this is i think the key nugget republicans would maintain control the senate [8:41] with some room to spare 52 to 48 because they would win in michigan right they'd hold on to ohio [8:46] they would hold on to texas they would hold i'm coming to kate's side of the board they'd hold on to [8:50] alaska yeah yeah i'll come back to my side of the board so the bottom line is this yes democrats are [8:56] ahead right now if the polling averages end up being the result democrats will control the senate if we [9:01] have the same average bias we've had in the past well i don't know i don't know says harry antin so [9:09] you just got to wait till the end i think you're going to have to wait to the end to see if the past [9:12] biases of the polling averages in the red states hold if they do it's going to be a good night for [9:16] republicans but hey history is made to be broken look at this okay net approval rating pre-midterm [9:22] among independents well according to my calculations the worst ever heading into a midterm election is [9:29] this gentleman on the right side of your screen donald john trump 50 points underwater that is way [9:35] worse than george w bush was going into the 06 midterm elections at 31 points underwater that's actually [9:41] even worse than richard nixon was before he was forced to resign back in 1974 he was 47 points [9:47] underwater and then of course truman who we keep bringing up because that was a terrible midterm [9:51] for democrats he was 27 points underwater but donald trump congratulations yet another record broken [9:57] we're talking about the worst ever net approval for a president heading into a midterm election these three [10:03] elections were terrible awful awful historically awful historically exactly flip of the house in the senate [10:11] democrats won the house and the senate and a flip of the house i mean historic shifts for the [10:14] democrat that year so you're seeing sort of numbers i don't think anyone expects like that this year [10:18] but but we'll have to wait and see more history put this in more historical okay so you know it's one [10:22] thing to be talking about the president right it's another thing to wondering how this will impact the [10:27] race for congress and you know these are not good historical analogs if you're a republican or you want [10:33] republicans to win in the midterm elections but here's another one for you okay the 2026 national [10:39] congressional ballot among independents democrats are up right now by 21 points 21 points if that holds [10:46] and we see it in the exit poll from all the research that i have done that would be the best margin that [10:52] democrats have ever had in a midterm election among independents in the exit poll era so it is one thing [10:59] with trump that's historic but we are seeing that historicness funnel its way down in the race for [11:04] congress democrats will have a historic lead right now in the national congressional and that would [11:09] include even big wave elections that we've seen before that would include six and 18. exactly that [11:14] would include 2006 that would include 2018 that would include any of the elections that we're looking [11:20] at okay 2008 as well now overlay this on one of the races we're watching most closely in texas yeah okay [11:25] so what could this possibly mean you know we're talking about the fact that james tallarico may in fact [11:31] become the first democrat to win a texas senate race since 1988 how is he doing it he's doing it [11:38] with independence that is how he would do it take a look at this okay texas senate fall polling among [11:43] indies beto o'rourke was actually down four points among independents at this point look at james tallarico [11:48] he is up he is up significantly up 23 points that is how james tallarico is by the smallest of margins [11:55] slightly ahead though within the margin of error in a historically republican state is because he's putting up [12:00] historic numbers with independence it's important to point out in texas the numbers underneath the [12:04] hood there are very different than anything we've ever seen so that is exactly right it's historic [12:09] polling which may lead to a historic result for democrats hundreds of millions of dollars being [12:15] spent in texas my goodness gracious you know if you just gave me like one 100 that i you would never [12:19] see me again but no i doubt that no yeah i can't stay away i'm wise i like it too much take a look here [12:26] texas said at polling tallarico versus pax i mean just look at this look at this consistent average [12:32] of the polls that we are seeing in july at the end of july look at that it was tallarico plus three [12:37] august tallarico plus three september tallarico plus three october tallarico plus three i mean maybe [12:43] you want to make the arguments like 3.2 versus like 2.7 or 2.8 but all this money that is being spent [12:51] it is basically three yards and a cloud of dust right now in the great state of texas where tallarico [12:57] holds this within the margin of error but still slight advantage that simply puts sarah seidner [13:04] really doesn't seem to be moving at all despite all of that money that is being spent um but we [13:10] should mention it's still within the mark we're gonna trust me you're gonna like the last slide [13:14] of error stay tuned um but i do love it when you go back in history and you sort of give people an idea [13:19] of where campaigns were for example at this point for the senate years ago yeah if you just take a [13:26] look you know i think a lot of people feel like texas is a little bit of lucy in the football right [13:30] and you know that last minute oh we're gonna win texas is gonna turn blue and then that football gets [13:34] taken out but this just looks different this just looks different okay who is ahead in texas senate races [13:39] i mean just take a look this is mid-october polling in points you know right now what you got is tallarico [13:44] three points you go back two years ago it was the gop by four you go back four six years ago wow i [13:50] can't believe 2020 was six years ago is the gop by seven and then i think the best historical [13:54] comparison was trump's first midterm right better o'rourke there was this all this energy that [13:59] democrats thought that they had but at this point better work was trailing ted cruz by about eight [14:03] points and that margin was with about three points at the end of the day so that was actually an [14:08] example in which the democrats actually outperformed their mid-october polls in a state like texas so it's [14:14] not always the case that the polls actually underestimate republicans sometimes they [14:19] underestimate democrats and at this point what we're seeing in texas is extremely unusual james [14:24] tallarico is the first democratic candidate for senate to be up this late in the campaign since as [14:29] sarah said at the beginning 1988. i said 1988. oh i'm sorry i i just said what i wanted to hear [14:37] that's a common problem of men touche it sure is look how often when you look back to candidates [14:44] who are up by something like three points within the margin of error how often do they win yeah how [14:49] often do they win this is what i do think is important candidates who are up by three win more [14:54] often than not okay but but it's 67 percent of the time so that means about one in three times the [15:02] candidate who is trailing at this point by about the margin that uh kem paxton is go on and win and [15:08] if you're a fan of baseball you know that one in three events happen very frequently so at this point [15:14] you know slight slight slight slight little pressure on the scale in favor of james tallarico but kem [15:21] paxton's very much in the ball game yeah i mean look texas has a lot more republicans they have a lot [15:25] democrats and so it'll be turnout turnout turnout most likely that makes a difference here i think we'll [15:30] know in a few weeks it's the voters who did not cast a ballot in 2024 and that group could ultimately [15:37] prove to be the decisive factor in a number of key races and you could see it right here their views [15:43] on president trump oh my goodness gracious it is a different world from where we were back in 2024 [15:49] voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 trump's not approval rating just after that election look at [15:54] this isn't that approval rating was plus four points for his plans for office look at where we [15:59] are right now oh my god negative 62 points johnny b that is a very very unlucky 66 point decline going [16:10] in the wrong direction voters who did not cast a ballot in 2024 they're like yeah so so now they are [16:18] decisively against the president of the united states it has to be a key target for democrats they have to [16:22] get these people to the polls if they can it will clearly pad their margins what are these voters saying [16:27] about some of the key issues yeah i mean what what is driving this what is driving this absolutely [16:33] massive decline for donald trump well how about just inflation look at this wow wow wow is the name of [16:40] the game i like to put numbers on the screen that i can get to in just two hands ten percent ten percent [16:47] that is the percentage of voters who did not cast a ballot in 2024 who approve of the job that donald [16:52] john trump is doing on the key issue of the day ten percent and look at this when you're in michael [16:57] irvin's number for a percentage you know it is either really good or really bad in this case it is [17:03] really bad 88 percent of voters who did not cast a ballot in 2024 disapprove of the job that donald john [17:10] trump is doing on the key issue of the day inflation 10 very bad turns of approval i mean that is the moon [17:17] landing line you know the percentage of americans who think we fake the moon landing you don't want to be [17:21] there and then 88 disapprove atrocious i will say you and i both keep calling the voters they may not [17:27] be that is going to be the key for democrats is to make them voters because again these margins will [17:32] clearly help them so in the race for congress how are these people yes i'm not going to call them [17:38] voters how are these people feeling how are these people how are these people feeling well we're going [17:42] to look at those who are actually likely to turn out and vote that i think is the key measure right [17:47] and you can see it here take a look here okay voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 the choice [17:52] for house margin look at this plus 25 points what about in the key senate races right in those red [17:58] states those red states getting those voters off the sideline look at this a 21 point lead for democrats [18:05] in those very tight races it could prove to be quite decisive indeed those voters getting them off the [18:10] sidelines and into the ballot booth you're talking about michael orford play for the dallas cowboys i [18:14] believe in tarrant county i think the stadiums in arlington i believe yes but that's neither here [18:19] nor the point is what are the prediction markets saying about texas right yeah you got to go outside [18:22] of dallas to see it all right chance to win the texas senate race james tellerico according to the [18:26] couch prediction market 64 chance kemp haxton just a 36 chance this 64 chance could become a hundred [18:34] percent election night if the polls are right about those voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 [18:39] getting off the sidelines and voting for this gentleman on the screen right that's one of the groups of [18:42] voters james tellerico was trying to reach when he's out there campaigning right there is a race [18:47] in ohio a state that's had a republican governor for some time now people are watching very closely [18:52] what's going on there yeah you know i mentioned 2007 2008 2009 2010 that was the only four years [18:58] in which democrats have held the governorship in ohio this century i do believe and what we're talking [19:05] about right here is just take a look at this okay the choice for ohio governor well vivek ramaswamy of course [19:11] we all know vivek ramaswamy he ran for president back in 2024 he was a part of the trump administration [19:18] right at the very beginning or at least helping him out he was ahead in ohio look at this he was up by [19:22] four points one two three four points in 2025 but look at what's going on right now amy acton the [19:29] democratic nominee for governor is trying to become the first democrat to win the governorship since ted [19:35] strickland won back in 2006 i sold johnny b's trivia questionnaire and look at this this race is [19:40] flipped from ramaswamy over to amy acton who's now up by four points in the polls why why why why [19:49] independence independence independence they are the name of the game this is the group that trump has [19:54] absolutely seen the floor drop out from underneath them and the same thing is going on vivek ramaswamy [19:59] look at this okay 2000s ohio gop gov nominees among independents vivek ramaswamy's negative 25 point net [20:08] popularity rating is the worst the lowest no one has ever been this low if you're a gop gubernatorial [20:15] nominee in ohio no one has been this low except for vivek ramaswamy the worst this century all right [20:22] and we started this segment talking about the idea that maybe democrats will take the majority of [20:26] governorships it is possible what are the prediction markets saying yeah okay so to me ohio is part of a [20:32] larger picture i think for this election cycle as ohio goes so goes the nation i think that's true in [20:38] the senate race i think that's true in the governor's race as well and right now if you take a look at [20:42] the cash prediction market the chance that the majority of govs are democrats after the midterms look [20:47] at this it went from 27 percent back on march 19th look at where we are now a 70 percent chance the [20:54] democratic chances have absolutely skyrocketed to become the majority of governors and that'll be the [20:59] first time it would happen since i was out of college