Robinhood CFO on Retail IPO Demand, Agentic Trading

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week Daily with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek live on Bloomberg Radio, television and Bloomberg Originals. [00:00:27] Speaker 2: All right, everybody, across Bloomberg platforms, welcome to Bloomberg Business Week Daily on a very busy Monday, November 2nd, 2026. Carol Masser along with Tim Stenevek. Hey, it is the first trading day of November. It is the eve of the U.S. elections on that. President Trump just beginning to make some comments in Washington. We are monitoring and will take you there live. There he is in front of the Lincoln Memorial and, of course, the reflection pool. So we will take you there live, again, monitoring them to see what he may be saying about the midterms, the elections, also potentially on the war in the Middle East. [00:01:02] Speaker 3: On the elections, we've got New York Representative Mike Lawler, who is fighting for his seat right now, running for a third term. We're going to speak with him in just a few minutes. [00:01:10] Speaker 2: Also, we've got Robin Hood CFO on the company's continuing fintech evolution. Every executive, every industry watching these midterm elections because what it could mean in terms of policy actions or lack thereof or changes to policy or regulatory frameworks when it comes to the elections and what the outcome is. So as we await and monitor President Trump there in Washington, one big story again for us is anthropic, disclosing a 12-fold increase in quarterly revenue while revealing that it tends to spend more than $895 billion in the years ahead as the AI lab courts investors for a potentially record-breaking IPO. On that, we actually want to check in with the CFO of Robin Hood. Shiv Verma is with us, joining us from Menlo Park, California. Shiv, good to have you here with us. Got to start, though, so many things going on, and we'll get to maybe the elections and the regulatory framework coming at everybody. But let's start with the mega IPO environment, all of them coming at us. Anthropic, OpenAI, some others. How Robin Hood will be involved, either in making sure their retail customers get access or in some other way? So I'd love to know how you guys are looking at that and how you're providing access for these really mega IPOs. [00:02:29] Shiv Verma: Yeah, first, great. Thank you for having me. As you mentioned, you know, Anthropic is coming. It's going to be a bellwether for the market. You may have seen they actually amended their S1 recently, and it showed that Robin Hood will be on the deal. So we're very excited to help customers get access. You know, if I go back to SpaceX just six months ago, it was a historic IPO, and now you have Anthropic coming and futures. And so for us, the main thing is retail customers should be allowed to participate. They should have a great experience, and that's what we've been building thus far. [00:02:53] Speaker 3: What does that look like in terms of, like, an allocation for these retail investors? How do you make sure that the retail investors who do want a piece of Anthropic's IPO get a piece of it? [00:03:04] Shiv Verma: Yeah, it's an incredible question. What we do is we bring the demand, and then we send it to the company and the banks. Ultimately, they decide what retail should be allocated. For us, we just ask to treat it as a first-class citizen. So if you looked at SpaceX, they actually came out and said they wanted to do about 15% to 20% to retail. When we did our own IPO, we gave 20% to retail, which at the time was the highest in history. And so if we bring great demand and we show them the power of retail, that's how you get a good allocation. It is tough, though. It's a food fight out there. So we're going to let our demand speak for itself and then let the companies decide for what they think is appropriate. [00:03:37] Speaker 3: Is there a way you can gauge demand right now before the actual IPO happens? Do you have an understanding of what these retail investors, what the folks on the Robinhood platform, want to see in terms of Anthropic? [00:03:47] Shiv Verma: So we're not allowed to directly start taking orders until they start doing that. But what we do see is what our customers are doing right now. So I shared in our earnings last week, we're seeing incredibly strong engagement. Customers are depositing more. They're trading more. Most of our metrics are at 50% year over year. So that's what we're sharing with a lot of the banks and a lot of the companies, that right now retail is engaged. They're technical optimists. They tend to believe in this economy. And so with that, I think it bodes really well, but we'll have to see when they actually open the order book up. [00:04:15] Speaker 2: Hey, Shiv, you talked about allocation for something like the Anthropic IPO or maybe some of the other mega AI, like OpenAI coming up. What do you expect in terms of allocation? You talked about what you guys wanted to do when you IPO'd. Are you talking with Anthropic? Are you getting any insight on what the allocation might be for those on the Robinhood platform? [00:04:38] Shiv Verma: Yeah, so we're in the quiet period, so we can't share specifics. But what I'll tell you about five years ago when we built the platform, traditionally retail got one to two percent of an IPO. And if you got five percent, that was fantastic. Now, when we talk to companies, they say, hey, how big can I go? Can I go to five? Can I go to 10? Can I go to 20? And so that's becoming more of the normal conversation. If you look at the U.S. equities market, about 20 to 25 percent is retail on any given day. And so just using that bar that shows how powerful retail is, each specific company and each individual bank will give their own recommendations. But for us, what we're making sure the companies know is retail is here. They are forced to stay. And given their 20 to 25 percent of the equities markets, they should consider a large allocation to retail. [00:05:20] Speaker 2: So can I read into that that you think it might be more like five percent versus one point to one to two percent? [00:05:26] Shiv Verma: It's again, I can't share or give it in a quiet period. And so I want to be really careful on that. For us, we just think it's important that they're treated as a first class citizen. And then ultimately, again, I've sat in the company's shoes. We've done our own IPO. But I do think retail is really powerful. And if you treat them well, they become long term supporters of the equity. [00:05:44] Speaker 3: OK, I want to shift gears a little bit and talk. This still has to do with AI, but it's about AI agents such as Muse, for example. One thing that we're all trying to figure out right now, and we're asking everybody these questions. How do you want Muse or other AI agents to interact with with your platform? What are you doing at Robinhood for agentic buying and selling of stocks, for example? [00:06:05] Shiv Verma: Yeah, great question. So for us, we believe in access and selection. So our view is any of these different connectors, whether it's Muse or GrokBot or Instinct or the whole gamut that are coming out now, Docs and Doit and Anthropic, we believe Robinhood should connect to there and customers have access through those tools. What are we doing for our first party? So we did our own product launch a few months ago, and we announced Robinhood agents. You can go into the app. You can have an agent do trading for you. You can do research for you. We think that's great. But if customers also want to access to these third-party connectors, fantastic. Again, we stand for access. And so I think some of the companies are being a little short-sighted when they say, hey, I don't want to connect to this app or I want everything to go through mine. What we've shown is if you just build a great product and you let customers access it whatever they want, good things will happen. And so we're super excited. And we're already up in a lot of these different connector stores. And you should expect us to be available in the vast majority of them in the near term. [00:07:02] Speaker 2: How are the agents, whether it's outside agents or your own Robinhood agents, kind of increasing activity and volume, if you will, or engagement on the platform? I'm just curious how that actually turns into actions. [00:07:13] Shiv Verma: Yeah, so it's really early right now, but the signals are positive. And so what we're seeing from customers is they love using it for things such as research and tools. That's the vast majority of it. So, for example, a customer may say, I have a view on AI stocks right now or I have a view on chip stocks right now. Can you help me do screeners or scanners and go to that? You can also then allow it to trade for you. Now, we make sure we build the guardrails in place. For example, your agentic trading account is completely separate from your core account. So if I open my app right now, I have my investment account, my retirement account, my custodial account for my daughter, then I have my agentic account. The agentic account is completely separate. And then if it wants to make a trade, you have to give it permission to do that. So if you've used cloud code or codex, it can take you so far, but at the end, the customer has to take the intent. So that's what we're seeing from customers. They're actually asking for more. They want even more tooling. They want it to be more powerful. You know, we share in our earning that about 200,000 people have agentic accounts and about 250 million of assets thus far. So really nice early growth. But for us, we're just chiseling the product and making it better and better. But we think this could be pretty large. [00:08:18] Speaker 3: All right. We've talked anthropic. We've talked about AI agents. You think that agentic trading could be pretty large or agents' role on Robinhood could be pretty large. Let's talk prediction markets because, as you guys said earlier this year, it's among the fastest growing business at Robinhood. I'm curious about, in terms of what you offer and what people are doing in terms of volume, how big is sports only as a business of the entire prediction market share that you offer at Robinhood? [00:08:46] Shiv Verma: Yeah, I actually shared some updated info on our earnings. So as of this quarter, about 30% is non-sports. And that's up from 15% just a quarter ago. So we're already seeing customers use more and more non-sports items. What are they using it for? You mentioned the midterm elections. Those are really popular right now. Anytime we see pop or cultural events, they'll become more topical. We tend to see more usage there. Crypto, believe it or not, that's one thing customers are using for to express a view using prediction markets. We also announced that we're going to have KPI contracts, meaning that if you want to make a view on a particular equity, you can trade the stock, you can trade the derivative, or you can go in and trade a KPI contract. So, for example, how many iPhone duels will Apple shift or how many cars will Tesla shift? We think those are going to be really powerful, but it's definitely found product market fit, and we're already up to 30% non-sports. Sports are fine, and they're great. And if customers want to use it, that's fantastic. But we believe we're at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle. And as you add more assets and more selection, it'll make the product better and better. [00:09:47] Speaker 3: We talked to Charles Schwab CEO Rick Worcester just last week about prediction markets, and he's made his view on the sports element of prediction markets very well. He says they have no place in Schwab's app. Why do you think sports trading is an asset class or part of an investing menu? [00:10:06] Shiv Verma: Yeah, it's a great question. We always start with, is it a regulated product and is it allowed? Right now, we believe the CFTC regulates it, and these products are available, and so we should access them. Our view is if they're going to be available, we want them on Robinhood, and we want to do it in the safest, most compliant way possible. After that, again, we stand for access. Our mission is democratize finance for all. We don't want to be paternalistic. We want to make sure people have controls and safeguards for how they trade. But if it is a legal, regulated product similar to anything else on our platform, we should offer it. And that's the same approach we've taken with sports. [00:10:41] Speaker 2: Hey, so I'm curious about prediction markets. If that's where you're seeing the most significant growth in terms of the platform, what can you tell us in terms of revenues actually coming in? I mean, you can, you know, a dollar to two dollars is 100% growth. But so I'm just trying to get an idea of the revenue breakdown that you're seeing when it comes to prediction markets specifically. [00:11:03] Shiv Verma: Yeah, it's now up to about a half a billion dollar run rate. So a little over 500 million ARR. And remember, this is only two years old. So we actually launched at the election two years ago in 2024. And now it's doing over 500 million in revenue. So great to see that. In terms of our overall base, you know, we're close to five and a half to six billion of ARR. So it's less than 10% of our overall revenue. But it's continuing to scale really nicely. It's now in the hundreds of millions of dollars. It's great for customers. It's also really good for shareholders. And we're taking those cashfuls that we're getting and we're reinvesting across a wide variety of other things at the top. [00:11:36] Speaker 2: Shiv, what are the conversations you're having with Wall Street right now? I mean, following, you know, earnings last week, they did drop third quarter revenue and earnings per share, missing estimates. J.P. Morgan trimmed its price target on you guys, noting a decline in customer engagement. So I'm just curious. Stocks down about 24% year to date. So what is it that you're hearing from the institutional or investor base when it comes to what they're not saying? So happy about. [00:12:03] Shiv Verma: Yeah, well, I'll start with what they are happy about. So what they absolutely love is the engagement on the platform, the growth in assets and the product velocity. I mean, the secret sauce of Robinhood is how fast we ship. And so that's something we continue to hear over and over and over again. The things that customers and shareholders are watching are, is the growth of net deposits sustainable? How is that going to grow? We said we can do 20% year over year and we already passed that, but they want to see that continue to grow. They're watching what's happening in the elections. They're watching what's happening in the geopolitical risk. They're watching what's happening in the interest rate environment. For us, we can control what we can control. And that's shipping great products for customers. And if you look at the outputs, it was actually our best quarter ever in terms of revenue, over 1.4 billion. Our best quarter ever in terms of adjusted EBITDA, over 800 million. We're continuing to diversify. We just hit 14 businesses that hit 100 million of ARR. So if we focus on the customers and we keep shipping, good things will happen. For what the shareholders want, we're going to keep balancing, making sure that we're growing and with expense discipline. But everything we're hearing from shareholders is keep shipping, keep focusing on growth and expense discipline, and the rest will take care of itself. [00:13:11] Speaker 2: Something that's going to take care of itself kind of tomorrow is the midterm elections and the elections more broadly in terms of certainly governors in various states. Having said that, the outlook, we hear a lot of talk about gridlock if we do see a blue wave or at least Democrats taking over the House of Representatives. Having said that, what would it mean potentially for your industry? Because things not getting done, too, can be problematic, whether it's prediction markets, whether it's crypto, whether it's a lot of things in kind of the changing financial landscape. So how are you thinking about the outcomes of midterms and how it might impact you? [00:13:52] Shiv Verma: Yeah, absolutely. What we prefer is actually just having the rules and the regulations so we know how to operate. We operate best in a regulated environment. We actually want things to get done. And so we're agnostic to which party is in charge and which administration is in charge. All we ask for is can we continue to innovate and can we continue to give us the rules to allow us to build? So, for example, we're continuing to work with the SEC on such things they mentioned as KPI products and how to make the IPO market big again. We're working with different regulators across crypto and brokerage and our banking product. And so for us, the most important thing is that people are open minded. They want to do things and we want to work with both sides of the aisle and the administration. Gridlock's not great for anyone, but I think America's figured out that if you have great people in charge who are trying to do the right thing, in general, you will get to a good spot. But it will be interesting to see, you know, how it all shakes out after tomorrow. [00:14:46] Speaker 2: Super appreciate it. Shiv, thanks so much. Take care. Shiv Verma, he is the chief financial officer of Robin Hood, joining us right now on this Monday. Right now we're going to get a check on markets, though. [00:14:55] Speaker 3: Yeah, Charlie Pellett is standing by in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio, watching everything extremely closely on this election day's eve. [00:15:01] Speaker 5: Hey there, Charlie. Well, hello there, Tim and Carolyn. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 index because it is up barely now, up under one-tenth of one percent. The Dow continuing to hold on to a 420-point gain of eight-tenths of one percent. But since our last update, NASDAQ has turned lower. It is down 44 points now, down by about two-tenths of one percent. The NASDAQ 100 index now down 124 points, a drop there of four-tenths of one percent. Bottom line, S&P 500 index is higher. This is crude oil sells off. We've got diplomatic efforts to end the war in Iran, spurring hopes for an easing in terms of inflation anxiety with what's going on with oil. WTI right now is down 7.7 percent. 9606 a barrel have been down more than eight percent. Barrel of Brent, the global benchmark at 104.58. Brent crude right now down by 7.8 percent. So, again, the S&P 500 index up barely, up by one-tenth of one percent. The SOX, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's semiconductor index, now lower by two percent. Two-year yield 4.58 percent, the 10-year 4.88 percent, and the 30-year 5.25 percent. Spock Gold, meanwhile, is rallying two percent, 39.54 the ounce on the precious metal. Earnings news. Right now, Marriott International shares, they are rallying after earnings. We've got Marriott shares up now by 3.8 percent. Hilton also advancing up 1.7 percent, and shares of Hyatt right now up by 3.6 percent. Coming up, after the close of trading, among the names we'll be hearing from, Palantir and Apple, ahead of earnings. Apple shares down now by 2.2 percent. So, again, recapping here, S&P 500 index up eight now, up by about one-tenth of one percent. Tim and Carol, that is a Bloomberg Business Flash. [00:16:58] Speaker 2: All right. Thank you so much. Charlie Pellett, of course. We'll be back to Charlie in about 15 minutes, checking in on the trade. We continue to monitor President Trump. He is in D.C. making some comments as we speak. He's at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. So, we are continuing to monitor, and we will take you there if he starts to take questions from reporters and also gets into some of the elections, of course, tomorrow, and also talking maybe about the Middle East. In the meantime, we want to get to our own Kate Sullivan. [00:17:28] Speaker 3: Yeah, Kate Sullivan is White House correspondent for Bloomberg News. Kate joins us from there right now, just not too far from where the president is making comments. The president's role in these midterm elections, he has been on a multi-state blitz. The campaigning will continue as well. We're seeing it happen right now, actually, from Washington, D.C. Do the people who are up for re-election around the country want the president to campaign on their behalf? [00:17:55] Speaker 6: This has been the central question, because the president's approval ratings are historically low right now. The majority of Americans disapprove of how he's handling the economy, the war in Iran. Gas prices are extremely high, and there's just generally a lot of anxiety about high costs of living. And so, we're seeing a lot of Republican candidates really try to, even if they are, you know, supportive of the president, they are MAGA Republicans, you're seeing a lot of Republicans really try to distance themselves, maybe sometimes in more subtle ways. But it's not clear that the president is really helping every candidate when he goes to rally in all their states. But it's going to be really interesting to see, of course, how this shakes out. But that has been a central question. [00:18:38] Speaker 2: Super interesting, and I was just thinking, you know, also, Kate, the president's been pretty busy here continuing to, in terms of questioning, or try to create some questions in the balloting in the state of California, the Department of Justice, you know, continue to take move. The Trump administration asking the U.S. Supreme Court to order California to set aside ballots from people whose citizenship the administration questions. I mean, this is a busy administration just before, I mean, it's kind of amazing, the night before the election. [00:19:10] Speaker 6: Absolutely. And I think, you know, it's just one of several examples of the administration really trying to preemptively intervene in these elections. You, of course, saw what happened in Alaska with the Justice Department trying to preemptively block or hold up the results if the incumbent Republican, Dan Sullivan, does not win. Now, there's a lot to talk about when it comes to Alaska with the whole, the two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. But I think you're seeing a lot of examples of the administration, you know, looking at these polls. Democrats right now are leading in polls in all seven critical states that could determine which party controls the majority. And so I think you're seeing a lot of, you know, Republicans worried about these elections. And you're also seeing the administration taking a lot of preemptive action when it comes to trying to intervene in these state-run elections. [00:19:58] Speaker 2: Kate, I've got to ask you, what's the view on polling, though? I just feel like, you know, we've been fooled before. We talk a lot about prediction markets, and we certainly look at them a lot as well. But they don't always get recent elections, global elections. They were wrong on Brazil. [00:20:11] Speaker 3: They weren't necessarily there on Israel. [00:20:13] Speaker 2: Exactly. So I'm just wondering, you know, what is the thinking around polling? And I am curious, you know, in a midterm election, when it is certainly a referendum on the sitting president and sitting administration, that are people more frustrated with the current administration, more likely to vote? Are supporters of the current administration more likely to vote? Is there any kind of nuances in terms of who actually shows up? [00:20:41] Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, that is a great question, I think, when it comes to polling. There's, of course, so much room for error. And it also comes down to, you know, who is actually picking up the calls? Who is responding to these polls? Who is being polled? And why are they motivated to respond? And I think it's always very hard to get a really accurate snapshot of what elections are looking like. You're absolutely right. We've been fooled in the past that polling has been very much wrong in the past. And so it is definitely important as we're talking about these elections, you know, with all these predictions, you're seeing a lot of polling and also prediction markets talking about how, you know, Democrats are very likely to retake the House and that it's looking right now that they're in the lead to retake or to retake the Senate. But it is important to not put, you know, everything into those polls. There's been, there are a lot of other ways to report on these elections, you know, talking to people on the ground. But again, these are kind of just giving signals on what people care about and sort of snapshots. But it does not give the full accurate picture. And we won't know until the results come in, of course. [00:21:45] Speaker 3: Kate, when will those results come in? When will we know who actually won these midterm elections? I know it depends state by state, but what can you tell us? [00:21:53] Speaker 6: It depends state by state. That's absolutely right. I think, you know, we might be in for a long night tomorrow night. It's also normal if results are not called on Election Day. It could take several days. There are, of course, a lot of people who have cast their ballots by mail. There are a lot of different ways the different states count these ballots and really will certify these results and come up with these results. And so it could, it could take a while. But then again, it could also not take a while. So we just don't know at this point. [00:22:24] Speaker 3: So, yeah, I mean, I guess the question that I have is, does that just give the president more time or the president's teams more time? And, you know, you have to know, too, that the Democrats are out there in full force, too, with their legal teams and states where this matters. I mean, where do you think, apart from Alaska and California, the lawyers will be most busy? [00:22:43] Speaker 6: I think wherever it's close, you're definitely seeing the administration really gearing up for some challenges here, just looking at the actions that they've already taken in California, in Alaska and several other places. But I think just where results would be close, I mean, it's also important to kind of take a step back and remember that this is a president who still maintains that he won the 2020 election that he lost against President Joe Biden. And he still to this day says that he won, that it was rigged. We hear a lot of that kind of rhetoric from officials in this administration, in this White House, but also, most importantly, from the president himself. There is a lot of talk about how mail-in ballots are riddled with fraud. There's, of course, no evidence of widespread fraud when it comes to mail-in ballots. They've been used for a very long time. But there are a lot of efforts when it comes to just how people are talking about these elections to try to really undermine the confidence in the results, particularly, of course, if Democrats win, coming from these Republican officials. [00:23:43] Speaker 2: All right, we're going to leave it there. Hey, Kate, thank you so much. And we appreciate your analysis of, obviously, the elections and what we're kind of watching out for. We continue, of course, to also keep an eye on President Trump, who is making some comments. He's live there, as you can see, in Washington, D.C. That was Kate Sullivan, White House correspondent, Bloomberg News. She's on the, or was on the White House North Lawn, the president at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. Again, we're monitoring those comments, and we will take you there live, as is warranted. [00:24:13] Speaker 3: Let's go to the president, who's now at the Reflecting Pool, making those comments, live in Washington, D.C. He's talking about the state of Michigan. Let's listen in. [00:24:21] Speaker 7: Gender mutilization of your children, abolishing oil and natural gas, sending energy, costs skyrocketing, and opening the floodgates to millions of migrants from all over the world, hoping to get them to be able to vote. That's the only reason they're letting them in. They want them to be able to vote. With your vote, we will decide these extremists will be given power or not power. We'll either keep America strong. I think we're having, this is the golden age of America. We've never done anything like it. When you hear $25 trillion in wealth created in a short period of time, it's not even two years, a long way from two years. January 20th is two years that we took over, but there's never been a time like this. We have, we fought for 250 years to make it great. We're not going to let it be torn down by a bunch of people that have failed everywhere they've been. Because the ideologies that you're talking about, various ideologies, they've always failed, every single time. So we'll defend our country, our culture, and our heritage for generations to come. We're going to keep it the way it is. We're going to make it better and just. So two days ago, it was reported that the Democrat nominee for Senate in Michigan, Abdul Al-Sayed, qualified for the ballot by campaigning and soliciting signatures at radical mosques and called the United States the House of Satan. They call it the House of Satan. And we change that. We call the United States the House of God. They call it the House of Satan. We don't want people to call the United States the House of Satan. When you vote, remember a party that hates America cannot be allowed to rule over the people who built our country. Many of you are right in front of us. I saw them last night. I saw them in Kansas. I saw them in Iowa. I saw them in Mississippi. I saw them in Texas and many other places. We did 29 stops. And we had big rallies, the biggest rallies ever by far for a midterm election. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. And that means there's love. And those rallies were love. Recent news has also proved that, again, the Democrat Party is very, very corrupt. In Alaska, the Democrats conspired to get a fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot to confuse voters and run against the real Dan Sullivan. So they got somebody named Dan Sullivan to run against Dan Sullivan and hoping that, and it would do that. It's corrupt. It's really a fraud, fraudulent election. We've achieved more in less than two years than any administration in American history. And I've kept every single promise I made except far more. I've actually kept far more promises than I made. We've done much more than I promised. And we have the most secure border in American history. Right now, we have a border that the people that make up the list, and I don't make them up. We've gone 17 months without one person entering our country illegally from the southern border. Before that, it was 25 million came in, and they came in from mental institutions and prisons, and they were drug dealers. Very sick people in many ways. We passed the largest tax cuts in American history with no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security for our great seniors. And oil today is down $10, which is the biggest drop in oil in history. There's never been any single day where oil has gone down that much, down $10, and it's going to go down a lot further because we're winning with Iran, easily winning. Their Navy is gone. Their Air Force is gone. It's laying all over the runways of Iran in little pieces. The anti-aircraft, their missile capacity is way down, and their missile building capacity is way down. And they have no money, and they have about the only thing they have is the highest inflation in the last 15 years for any country, over 300% inflation. And they want to make a deal, and that could happen. So personal incomes are the highest in history. The poverty rate is at an all-time record low, meaning good. Best poverty rate we've had ever in history. Best personal incomes we've had ever in history. American exports are at an all-time high, and more people are working today than at any point in the history of our country. And the United States is now by far the largest supplier of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. And when you add our conquest of Venezuela, we won the war in Venezuela in one day, and we're taking in hundreds of billions of dollars of oil. Every single day it's coming in from Venezuela, which, as you know, is a very vital source. And when you add the United States and Venezuela together, and then you add Greenland, if you'd like, because we also have Greenland now, we worked out a great deal. And we want to thank Denmark and Europe for making that possible. But, you know, when you heard, oh, Greenland, you're not going well, it was very vital to us. We got Greenland on an unlimited basis. But when you add just Venezuela and the United States, we have almost 50 percent of the world's oil. We have more than Saudi Arabia and Russia by far put together. Because our country is doing so well, also, as you know, and I say it, I say it because we've done it with 1776 for our soldiers, $1,776. And our soldiers got that. But we're going to do, if we win the election, everybody is going to get $5,000. Every adult is going to get $5,000. But you have to spend it in the United States of America. The Democrats want to blow all of this up by electing communist jihadists, and the United States Congress will not allow that to happen. We've got some big races tomorrow. I guess some of the voting has already gone on. But tomorrow is Election Day, more traditional. And we can't let that happen. We have to keep our Congress strong, free. A little bit of apple pie is something very nice about that. We're not looking to have... [00:31:19] Speaker 2: All right, everyone, you have been listening to President Trump there in front of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and, of course, making some comments there. He did mention, in terms of issues important to the Bloomberg audience, Iran wants to make a deal that could happen. He did talk about some decreases in oil prices. He said oil will go down further because we're winning with Iran. But, again, we have seen some expectation in the market once again with oil prices dipping back a little bit, and that has given some support to the risk on trade. But having said that, Tim, we have been there before. So it's something we will continue to monitor and follow the president's comments. [00:31:58] Speaker 3: I want to bring back Kate Sullivan, White House correspondent for Bloomberg News. She joins us live from the White House. She, along with us and all of you listening to the president as he makes his perhaps closing message of the campaign, I don't know. We'll see what else he has to say later about this in the next few hours. But, Kate, I do wonder if this is the speech, the message that Republicans want to hear, as they do, as so many members of the party fight for their political lives right now. [00:32:26] Speaker 6: I will say it is so striking to see the president giving this particular speech in front of the reflecting pool. It is such an unusual use of time. The day before these really critical midterm elections, the president, for the first 10 or 15 minutes, was talking about his reflecting pool renovation. He's been very fixated on these sort of beautification projects that he's been doing all over D.C., spending a lot of money, of course, with the ballroom. It's something he talks about a lot. The Lincoln, sorry, the reflecting pool is something he talks about a lot. Also, there's the golf course that he's building. There's the arch that he's building. He brought out photos to talk about very, very in-depth, very detailed comments about this reflecting pool. It's such an interesting use of time right now because, as we talked about before, Democrats are leading in all these polls. There are a lot of Republicans who are very concerned heading into these elections. So I'm not sure, you know, it's the president is not traveling today. He, of course, for the last 30 days was traveling basically every day, was in a lot of, also very interesting, a lot of traditionally Republican states, a lot of deep red states, as Republicans are really defending, that are really on defense in these elections right now. But it is really striking that you're seeing the president using his time this way and is not on the campaign trail. We won't be seeing him traveling. He'll be at the White House tomorrow. [00:33:52] Speaker 2: All right. We're going to leave it there. Hey, Kate, thank you so much. Kate Sullivan, White House correspondent at Bloomberg News there on the North Lawn of the White House, continuing to follow the president. Again, we will continue to monitor his live comments there in the nation's capital and bring you any headlines as they are said. In the meantime, we want to get to someone who is a former senior counselor in the White House, to President Trump. This was during his first term. He is Satya Salam. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the 501c3 nonprofit that was established in Silicon Valley back in 2014. We're talking about the Foundation for American Innovation. He is a lawyer who's advised clients in government relations, lobbying on behalf of Fortune 50 companies, tech startups, nonprofits, and clients under congressional investigation. I believe that was probably Fortune 500. Satya, good to have you here with Tim and myself. There's a lot going on. You do join us from Sonoma, California. There is a lot going on. [00:34:49] Speaker 8: There's a lot going on. It was Fortune 50. I should clarify. I am not a lawyer. It was Fortune 50. And this has become an issue recently. I am not an attorney. I'm not a lawyer. I'm not a law school graduate. So let's get that out of the way. [00:35:01] Speaker 2: Oh, forgive me. That came across. Okay. Thank you, though, for your honesty and transparency. That's important. [00:35:07] Speaker 8: Because people get in trouble. [00:35:08] Speaker 3: We've heard. [00:35:10] Speaker 8: Yes, yes, yes. [00:35:10] Speaker 3: We've seen. [00:35:11] Speaker 2: That is a really good point. [00:35:12] Speaker 8: So should we talk about the Elizabeth Holmes movie? [00:35:14] Speaker 3: Well, I haven't seen it yet, so no spoiler alerts, okay? So let's focus on tomorrow and potentially the spoils that may happen on Election Day. What's your view going into a midterm where so many Republicans are fighting for their political lives right now? [00:35:29] Speaker 8: I mean, I'm a policy wonk, you know, and I look at policy issues. I don't know the horse races. I'm just generally not that much into equestrian competitions, political or otherwise. But I think the one insight that I sort of have working in the area I do in writing in tech and AI policy is we have never seen the salience of an issue like AI increase as fast as it had. Is that going to be determinative? Probably not. And, you know, when people say is AI and the advancement of technology important to you, people will almost always say yes, but that doesn't mean. [00:36:09] Speaker 3: Why do you think it has become salience for so many voters so quickly? Do you think it's because of data centers and potentially the way that voters think about higher electrical costs as a result of data centers? They look at their bills and whether or not a data center is close by their bills have gone up because energy prices have gone up in in recent years. Is that why this is this is something that is despised by members of both parties? [00:36:33] Speaker 8: I think I like to think of it as decomposing the opposition to data centers specifically into two parts. One is entirely and exclusively local. It is whether it's accurate or not perceptions of increased costs of disruption, environmental effects. Displacement of other infrastructure, things like that. And then the other is more of a proxy, a synecdoche of the intangible anxiety around something that appears to be changing with AI and technology more broadly. The data center is just a place to put to focus that political energy, but it's not going to going to stay there. And I always say that the salience is increased because I have a friend who directs millions of dollars in PAC spending on elections. And he says the surveys, the pollsters he uses, confirm they have never seen in their polling in 30, 40 years, an issue jump from basically a rounding error up to something that's like in the top 10. [00:37:34] Speaker 2: For or against? [00:37:38] Speaker 8: Mostly against, but just in terms of ranking, how important is this issue? How much does it weigh into the things that you're looking at when you're determining who to vote for, what party and what policies you're going to support? But I think generally people overwhelmingly, more than a supermajority are generally unfavorable, but that can mean a million different things. [00:38:00] Speaker 2: You know, you say you're a policy wonk, um, economics, the economy is always front and center any election and the affordability issue is definitely something that when it comes to polls is something that has been a top priority for many Americans, this administration, you've worked inside it. Um, what do you make of the policies that have seen, I think some would argue more business centric than really citizen centric? [00:38:26] Speaker 8: There's two ways of looking at that. I mean, I don't know that the massive imposition of tariffs was viewed as business centric or consumer centric. Um, and a foreign conflict, whatever. I'm not a foreign policy expert, but whatever the merits, relative merits, I don't know that was necessarily could be characterized as business centric again or consumer centric. But both of those things clearly are being metabolized as costs, increasing costs, even just in terms of uncertainty, which manifests as costs costs and forward-looking, um, uh, mitigation and having to account for that. Um, I'll tell you this, I, uh, back in August, the president was saying anyone who poses data centers, going back to that, um, wants to be stupid and poor. And then in September said, um, people building data centers need to pay a dividend to locals. I guess those two are consistent, but the fact that they're trying to rebrand artificial intelligence as super intelligence is a recognition that the brand's not working. [00:39:32] Speaker ?: Mm-hmm. [00:39:32] Speaker 8: And the, um, gung-ho letter rip approach with the tech companies and wanting to, uh, promote innovation for whatever its merits, uh, it's a brand that people aren't buying. [00:39:42] Speaker 3: You know, and you said you don't like, like horse races and you don't want to weigh in on, on, on, on sort of what, what ends up happening. But there are real policy implications to, if there is some sort of, of, of Republican control lost in Washington. And if Democrats indeed win the House and potentially even win the Senate, as somebody who advises companies on tech policy, how does their world change? And how does your world change come 2027 if Democrats control the House and the Senate? [00:40:10] Speaker 8: Well, actually, most of the most consequential tech regulation proposals in Congress so far, uh, have been largely bipartisan. It's a handful. Here's what I'm handicapping them. They're not going to move. And I think the house in particular, if it switches, which I think is kind of a fait accompli at this point, is going to be focused so heavily on in oversight, um, possibly impeachment, these kinds of, uh, high, um, high volume political efforts that serious tech regulation repeal of section 230 or things of that type are really going to get crowded out for at least a year. There will be more attention to them and there's an opportunity to engage and try to shape those. There are, I, I, this is the news flash for most people that I talk to. There are serious people in Congress. They are not the majority and they tend not to be the loudest, but they are respected by their colleagues. Um, and these are the ones who do actually try to dig in and try to find compromise, find durable, temporary, well, durable political coalitions that can support a specific policy or bill, work with the other chamber, work with the, the white house. I'll, I'll give you this as an example and just sorry for rambling here. [00:41:31] Speaker 2: Well, you know, I actually want to jump in because you've had some insight having served in, you know, with the president or worked for the president, uh, during his first term. If indeed we get a blue wave, if indeed we see the house of representatives, maybe minimally, um, move over to the Democrats, as a lot of polling has said, what kind of remaining two years of a white house might we have based on your insight? [00:41:53] Speaker 8: I would say that it would be pretty combative, but it seems like they're already there. I mean, I think the character of this white house and the way that they've run their policy process, the, um, the, the, the, the policy production function that starts from idea campaign and eventually makes its way throughout the administration. We call it sometimes the interagency process. It was fairly conventional in the first Trump white house. My view from the outside and I'm not, you know, there. And, and I don't have a spy camera in the white house is that's not the way it's working. [00:42:28] Speaker 2: Do you talk to anybody in the white house anymore? [00:42:30] Speaker 8: I have a few folks that I know that work, uh, in and around the administration. Um, not to the degree I did, you know, coming out of 2020. [00:42:40] Speaker 3: You know, one, one thing that's been so noticeable. And again, gearing our questions to the Northern California, Satya, because, because this is, you know, where you're joining us from. And, and so much of, of what we've talked about in the last few years has been the shift of, especially with, with big players in, in, in technology, many incredibly wealthy people. Formerly Democrats who are now aligning themselves with the president. Um, if there is indeed, uh, a, a balance of power switch after this election and then come, let's say, you know, in 20, 29, we see a Democrat as a president. Has the tech industry made a mistake by aligning themselves so closely with president Trump? [00:43:20] Speaker 8: Probably in the short term, you know, it's funny. I saw a statement from a senior official at open AI saying, and I think anticipating the midterm outcome saying we need to not chase the moment. Um, and then immediately the next sentence was we're working to, uh, inform the upcoming Congress, which I think is by definition chasing the moment. Um, but, but, but this is true, not just of tech. This is true in Washington, D.C. every election becomes overdetermined. Every lobbying shop suddenly says, oh, we need to beef up our democratic staff, uh, lobbyists, former staffers, or a Republican just based on the, the election. And they don't think in terms of a long term and, uh, in consistent vision. Honestly, I think here's my prediction to the degree I have one is that. Yeah. Tech policy and the tech sector will be determined not by the party, but by an exogenous shock. I think we're seeing an increase in disruptions and hacking. Um, uh, Iran was potentially linked to the summer's disruptions at municipal water treatment facilities. And we somehow have forgotten that. I don't think that's going to get smaller. It's going to get more common and bigger. Yeah. And ultimately that will determine the policy that responds. All right. Interesting. Uh, certainly some things to think about. Um, Satya, thank you so much. Satya Salam, former senior counselor in the White House to President Trump during his first term. He's a non-resident senior fellow, uh, at the Foundation for American Innovation, joining us from Sonoma, California. [00:44:42] Speaker 2: California. We got to get back to the markets. Um, we've got stocks under pressure, uh, again, uh, definitely off our highs of the session. Let's put it at least that way. [00:44:51] Speaker 3: But different in terms of the trade we saw on Friday. Yeah. Yeah. Fortunately, Charlie Pellett is standing by in the Bloomberg Business Week studio. He's got an eye on everything we need to know. [00:44:58] Speaker 5: Hey, Charlie. Well, hello there, Tim and Carol. Indeed, the S&P since our last update. It is now in the red, trading down by two tenths of one percent. Drop there of 16 points. Dow Industrials up 314, holding onto a gain of six tenths of one percent. Bottom line here. Well off session highs. Nasdaq down six tenths. We've got the Nasdaq 100 index down nine tenths of one percent. Interestingly, though, as Nasdaq and the S&P decline, the Russell 2000 index of small cap shares. That is up now by about one tenth of one percent. The socks, though, hard hit today. Picking up where it left off on Friday. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index down now by two point nine percent. Your two year four point five eight percent with a 10 year four point eight nine percent and the 30 year currently yielding five point two six percent. Sparkle, meanwhile, up one point eight percent. Thirty nine forty three the ounce. West Texas Intermediate crude now down by seven percent. So ninety six eighty one a barrel. So WTI back below a hundred dollars. In the meantime, Brent hovering right around one oh five a barrel down now by seven point four percent. And Bitcoin below seventy seven thousand seventy six thousand six hundred eighty one now on Bitcoin down by about one point four percent. Meta platforms is reading a cross border investment grade bond offering to test investment appetite for its debt amid growing skepticism about the pace of spending on AI infrastructure. Carol and Tim, that is a Bloomberg Business Flash. All right, Charlie. Thank you so much. [00:46:31] Speaker 2: Republicans in a multi front battle to protect their house majority. The 17th district here in New York is one of the battlegrounds emerging this cycle. The GOP has made holding on to Mike Lawler's seat a priority. Representative Lawler is a vulnerable vulnerable vulnerable Republican. He was first elected back in 2022 in a politically mixed pocket north of New York City. It's been rated a toss up by Cook Political Report. We do welcome the U.S. Representative for New York 17th Congressional District and a member of the House Financial Services and Foreign Relations Committee. He is Representative Mike Lawler joining us. Republican, of course, of the state of New York. Congressman Lawler. Great to have you here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. We are, as you know, one day less than one day away from the election. And the nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls your race a toss up between you and Kate Conley. What will be the deciding factor in your view that will make up the margins in this [00:47:25] Speaker 9: particular race. Well, from the district and. Home here. We're raising our family here. Unlike my opponent, Kate Conley, who parachuted into this district just for the sole purpose of running. She doesn't own a home here. She doesn't pay taxes here. And I think voters don't take kindly to that. You know, Westchester and Rockland. The highest property tax counties in America. And, you know, when I look at the state of. We delivered real results. I have consistently been rated among the most bipartisan and effective members of Congress. I'm the only sitting member of Congress to be endorsed by a sitting member of the opposite party. Jared Jared. Jared Golden endorsed me just over a month ago. In addition, you know, I fought for and. It's cut in American history, lifting the cap on salt from 10,000. It's no tax on overtime. No tax on social security. We secured the border and stopped the massive influx of illegal immigration. I helped lead passage of the largest bipartisan housing bill to pass Congress in 36 years. Six of my bills were included to increase supply, cut red tape, increase access to capital and bring down prices. We're close to finalizing a permitting reform deal so that we can actually increase domestic production of energy. And, you know, ultimately, I think voters across this district want to know that you're able to not only get to know that you're going to know that you're going to know that you're going to be able to know that you're going to know the power to deliver results. When I agree with the president, I say it. When I disagree with [00:49:16] Speaker 3: him, I say it. That's why I've been effective. Do you agree with him that the polls are rigged? Is that an honest [00:49:24] Speaker 9: characterization? Is this actually a closer race than the polls indicate? I don't worry about polls or actual race. At the end of the day, the people have told everybody in 2016 that Donald Trump had a zero percent chance of becoming president. And obviously, we know what happened. So I don't think voters care about the polls or the pundits or what the media has to say about this. They care about their ability to vote and their vote and their ability to determine the outcome. And that's why on crisscrossing this district and not only showing up in every community results for every community. And tomorrow night, I'm going to win. Representative Lawler, will a vote for you mean a vote for [00:50:13] Speaker 2: President Trump to continue the war in Iran and just have 30 seconds? [00:50:20] Speaker 9: For me, continued to fight for my constituents. As far as the war in Iran goes, we need to finish the job. Iran possess a nuclear weapon. And that is going to be front and center, obviously, as we move forward, making sure that not only do they not possess a nuclear weapon, but that they don't finance terrorism and that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. [00:50:43] Speaker 2: Representative Lawler, thank you so much. Representative Mike Lawler, Republican in the state of New York, joining us right here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. We're going to get a check on markets for you and some stocks on the move. We're back in a [00:50:57] Speaker 1: moment. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio and [00:51:08] Speaker 2: Television. All right, everybody, we've got just about, I don't know, seven minutes before we head into the last hour of trading on this Monday, first trading day of November. You know, OK, we're obsessed with the midterms right now. But, you [00:51:19] Speaker 3: know, let's not sleep on the jobs report on Friday. We do have a jobs report. We have some big -- this is -- isn't it like a [00:51:24] Speaker 2: quarter of the companies, I think, in the S&P or something, are reporting earnings this week. Apple after the bell today. Right. I think Qualcomm later on this week. It's a big earnings week. So we'll be keeping an eye. We are just hovering around our lows of the session. So right now you've got an S&P that has turned negative down about 15 points, down two-tenths of a percentage point. Dow is still higher by two-thirds of 1%. And you are looking at a NASDAQ, which just got creamed on Friday, down another almost full percentage point, down [00:51:52] Speaker 3: nine-tenths of a percent, down 267 points. Lows of the session -- also close to lows of the session for oil. If you look at WTI, down under $97 a barrel, 96.66, so down more than 7%. Brent futures down 7.6%, still at $405 a barrel. Not soon enough for, you know, heading into the election, I think many pundits would say, observers would say, about -- because gas prices remain high. And potentially news on Iran and a negotiation of some sort opening up, driving oil prices lower. [00:52:24] Speaker 2: We should point out, President Trump has ended his remark. He was there at the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool. And so we were monitoring that. And, of course, you heard a little bit of his comments earlier. Excuse me. He also talked to Axios. And they apparently had a phone interview with the president. And that there was no rush to decide on restarting the war in Iran. That Iran asked to stop killing its leaders. President Trump saying, we will. And then on Iran, it's coming together nicely. That's why oil is down. And that certainly gave a lift to the overall broader trade earlier today. But we have seen this before. And so the devil is always in the details. So we'll see what happens. [00:53:09] Speaker 3: I'm Tim Stanovic along with Carol Master. Let's take a look at some stocks on the move today. We're joined by Bloomberg News U.S. equities reporter Matthew Griffin. Hey, Matt. [00:53:17] Speaker 10: Hey, Tim. Well, should we start by talking about the biggest deal news of the day? Oh, yeah. Let's do it. [00:53:23] Speaker 2: It's a big one, right? [00:53:24] Speaker 10: Yeah. It's a really big one. It's the second biggest tech tie-up ever, if it comes to pass, after SpaceX XAI. So that's Marvell acquiring a LUMENTUM for an enterprise value of $115 billion. You have both stocks tanking. So LUMENTUM, that's ticker L-I-T-E, is down 18%. Yes, this deal between the chip maker and then LUMENTUM, they make optical networking gear. That would create this AI infrastructure heavyweight. At the same time, there are a lot of concerns about AI infrastructure right now. The market is very jittery in general. We have the Philadelphia semiconductor index off another 3% today. Then you've got analysts who don't expect a lot of potential cost cutting between these companies. You've got a really ambitious target to get regulatory approval. That's 2028. And there are just reasons that investors are clearly not happy here. Marvell, that's ticker M-R-V-L, is down 13%. Those holders would get about 67% of the combined company. [00:54:24] Speaker 2: There are also two names that have been on a tear this year. I mean, Marvell now, with the pullback in today's session, still up 100% year-to-date. LUMENTUM, even with its pullback today, is still up about 88% year-to-date. So they have been, you know, a little pricey. [00:54:39] Speaker 10: And that's the story with all of these chip names, is they have these big swings, they have these big sell-offs, and then you look at the year-to-date, and you see that there is always still room to fall when things go wrong, because we just rallied so much in the first half of the year. We've been subject to the volatility that came after that ever since. [00:54:58] Speaker 3: Okay. Well, that's a big deal that we're going to be talking about. [00:55:00] Speaker 10: Now to something kind of low-tech-ish. [00:55:02] Speaker 3: What else you got for us? [00:55:03] Speaker 10: Yes, well, I've been looking at hotels. That's Marriott International, ticker M-A-R, up about 4% after raising their profit guidance for the year. So that's adjusted earnings per share of as much as $12.14. They previously saw no more than $11.81. They actually are seeing a lot of strength globally in what, you know, international revenue per available room, RevPAR, that key metric for hotels. It's a little bit different than what you heard from some other companies, like from Hilton last week. They saw a little bit of weakness globally due to the conflict in the Middle East. Marriott also being hit by the war, but offsetting it elsewhere around the world. You also had Bloomberg Intelligence weighing in saying they're not highlighting some of the impacts of the midterm elections, that kind of thing, that their competitors have. So investors are very happy with this report. [00:55:58] Speaker 2: So Tim bought a Rivian, and Rivian shares are up. He did not buy a Rivian. [00:56:02] Speaker 3: You think I could charge that thing in Brooklyn? Or I can't even find a parking spot. [00:56:06] Speaker 2: That is so true. Long cord from the house. [00:56:08] Speaker 3: No, no Rivian at the Stenovec home. [00:56:10] Speaker 10: It is higher today, though. Yes, and consumers are buying a lot of these R2 SUVs that's off to a strong start. We don't have a ton of specific numbers, but we know that helped their earnings report last week. Now it has earned them an upgrade at UBS to buy from Neutral, basically ahead of the R2 becoming a bigger part of the electric vehicle makers business. So that stock is ticker RIVN is up almost 9% today, building on a 6.2% increase after those decent earnings on Friday. [00:56:43] Speaker 2: Still down about 32% year to date with about 15% of the float short. And I just have to say, every time I see one of those R2s on the road, it just reminds me of like Cars, you know, the movie? I think they're cool looking. They look like they belong in the movie, don't they? With the eyes. Absolutely. It's kind of cute. That's like I'm not watching these Pixar movies, Carol. [00:57:03] Speaker 3: I don't know what you're talking about. [00:57:04] Speaker 2: Everybody watches Pixar movies. I've seen Cars. Thank you. At least the first two. Not sure about the first two. Thank you. Thank you, Matt. Matt Griffin, Bloomberg News, U.S. Equities reporter. Check out our Stock Movers podcast. Find it on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you get your podcasts. Coming up on TV, The Clothes.