Retired generals break down Iran war strategy after week 7

[0:00] We're joined by retired Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, a distinguished military fellow at the Middle East Institute and former commander of the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet. [0:10] Thank you so much, Vice Admiral, for being with us. [0:15] It's good to be with you, Frederica. [0:16] I do want to ask you about that uranium stockpiles in a minute. [0:19] But, you know, first, if I could get your kind of reaction or guidance on Iran now reimposing restrictions on the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz there. [0:29] We were hearing that maybe two vessels also may have been hit or impacted in some way. [0:37] Does this scenario now, less than 24 hours after what was supposed to be, you know, an agreement to keep things open and flowing again, [0:45] does this position the U.S. military in a way that it can react or make adjustments or reimpose the U.S.'s blockade as a result of this activity now? [1:02] Well, Frederica, I think what we're seeing is what we would expect here with another round of negotiations about to happen. [1:07] Both sides trying to use the leverage that they have. [1:09] And for the Iranians, of course, it's them saying they have control of the Straits of Hormuz. [1:15] And so what's happened is they first said that all ships could flow. [1:18] And we saw about 30 ships then take advantage of that and move out of the Gulf. [1:23] Some of them were tankers and some of them were container ships. [1:25] And one cruise ship actually went through. [1:27] And then when they saw that the U.S. didn't then remove their blockade of Iranian ports, they said, oh, now it's closed again. [1:39] And so and that's when you saw this attack that you just described on these two ships. [1:45] So I don't see in the U.S. has been very clear that they're not going to stop the blockade on the Iranian ports, regardless of what the Iranians do. [1:54] And I think that now, you know, both sides have the leverages and they're posturing with those leverages. [2:00] The U.S. that, hey, if, you know, we can always go back to strikes and we have a blockade and the Iranians saying, you know, we control the Straits of Hormuz and, you know, and we still have, you know, uranium here. [2:12] Mm hmm. OK. I want to also now turn to that uranium stockpile idea and the president, you know, saying that one way or another, the U.S. will secure Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. [2:26] I mean, what he calls, I'm quoting him now, uranium dust. [2:30] So let's listen to what the president said exactly about that. [2:33] We're taking it. We're taking it. Very simple. We're taking it. [2:49] Iran. We're going in with Iran. [2:51] Does that mean the U.S. is on the ground? [2:52] We will have it. I don't call a bunch of them. We'll take it after the agreement is signed. [2:58] Hard to hear for some. He says we're taking it. So, you know, what would this mean? [3:03] How would the U.S. go about obtaining the uranium? [3:07] Iranians have said it's in rubble, you know, and other remnants may be in storage facilities, but again, under rubble. [3:16] So how would the U.S. go about trying to retrieve it? [3:22] Right. So what you have is 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. [3:26] And the importance of that is that it doesn't take much time back in a centrifuge again to get that up to what you need to make weapons grade, to make weapons, nuclear weapons. [3:37] So it is right now what I would call buried and being continuously watched. [3:42] That's probably the best way to describe it. [3:44] So because of the strikes on Fordow and the strikes on several of the other sites, that uranium has been basically put under rubble. [3:51] And as the U.S. is, as you would expect, and Israel are closely watching this. [3:56] So if the Iranians make some attempt to go in there, I think you'd see them do something. [4:00] Do you think that would be wise? [4:02] Wise to try to, for the U.S. to try to get in there and retrieve it? [4:07] And how would it do it? [4:08] I don't think, yeah, I don't think that there's been lots of talk about some missions that you could do to go in there and get there. [4:16] The operation would be very complex and require way too many forces on the ground. [4:20] And likely not necessary if you are in negotiations, because the idea would really be the negotiations would get to a point where, in the end, there's some approach to getting at that uranium and having it removed under the watchful eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency and potentially other nation states like European nation states watching to make sure that the Iranians don't move off with something if that were to happen. [4:47] So I look at this as not something you have to get at right now because it is buried and under continuous watch, but it has to get resolved in some way. [4:55] And hopefully that's at the negotiating table. [4:57] All right. Vice Admiral Kevin Donaghan, great to see you. [5:00] Thank you so much. [5:02] Thanks, Federica. [5:04] General Gibson, first to you, what are the challenges to reopening the Strait of Hormuz? [5:08] And what are you watching for to indicate that it's actually returning to normal flow through the Strait? [5:14] Certainly. That's a terrific question. [5:16] I think, you know, some of the concerns right now would be potentially a tighter, narrower area through which the ships can come because of those Iranian mines. [5:26] There's also maybe a demand to not only impose the blockade that we've put on Iran, which is probably part of what's bringing them to the negotiating table and willing to make additional concessions. [5:38] So it's important to keep it in place. But there may also be demands to escort vessels through those waters and such a blocked up. [5:46] There's so many ships that are still inside the Gulf. [5:49] It's going to take some time for them to come out. [5:51] And I think the last point I would make there, as with all of reopening the Straits and recommencing commerce there, it's a decision made by commercial business interests in which they weigh potential risk against potential profit. [6:04] And so our ability to ensure it's a smooth passage will help boost the confidence that it can, in fact, return to more normal commerce. [6:13] But it's going to take time. [6:14] General, part of the process that brought us to this point was the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, specifically the idea that Hezbollah and the IDF would cease shooting at each other. [6:29] How robust do you think that ceasefire is? [6:32] How much leverage do you think Lebanon has over Hezbollah? [6:35] So I think this is probably one of the more problematic aspects of tying that Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire to having the Straits open, because now we have third parties who can entirely scotch it. [6:49] It's only, for now, a 10-day ceasefire, and it preserves Israel's right to self-defense, understandably. [6:55] They are authorized to take whatever action they deem necessary to safeguard themselves if they sense a threat coming from Hezbollah. [7:02] So if or when Israel conducts another strike in Lebanon, does that mean that the Straits slams shut again? [7:09] This is something problematic, I think. [7:11] And in terms of Lebanon's ability to influence Hezbollah, it is very limited. [7:16] But I would say on the positive side, I think we're seeing indicators that the current administration in Lebanon is less willing to tolerate Hezbollah than its predecessors. [7:25] And the last thing I'd say regarding Hezbollah and Iran is Hezbollah, like Israel, is an autonomous actor. [7:32] They take a lot of lethal weapons from Iran, but not direction. [7:37] A deal with Iran could come any time in the next day or two, President Trump says, telling CBS in an interview today that Iran has, quote, [7:45] agreed to everything, including working jointly to remove enriched uranium from the country and bringing it to the U.S. [7:53] That's a claim that Iran is denying at the moment. [7:56] The president adding that, quote, no troops would be required for such an effort. [8:01] Joining me now is retired U.S. Army general, former head of U.S. Central Command, David Petraeus, who, of course, also served as CIA director. [8:08] General, thank you very much for being with us today. [8:11] I really appreciate it. [8:12] The president saying this, a deal in a day or two, do you think that is plausible, especially in light of these Iranian denials? [8:21] Well, I'd certainly hope it would prove to be true, but it doesn't sound as if Tehran is fully embracing what the president has laid out. [8:30] And sometimes the president uses this technique, projecting onto an adversary what he hopes they'll come back with, and occasionally that can actually galvanize action. [8:40] But it seems that the two really big issues, first, that they will not enrich uranium again in Iran, and second, that the enriched to 60 percent stockpile that is buried, [8:53] we believe, underneath one of the destroyed former nuclear sites at Esfahan, that that would be turned over probably to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which would validate and verify it. [9:05] That issue is out there. [9:06] And then, of course, you have the issue of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran was trying to turn that into its version of the Panama Canal and charge $2 million per transit, 130 ships each day. [9:19] That's not a trivial amount of money, and where we are blockading them in a very good move, because I think it increases the pressure on them very dramatically. [9:28] And it's going to put enormous economic and fiscal pressure, in particular, once they run out of the reserves that they have right now, $35 billion or so, [9:36] and then can deliver the 150 million barrels or so of oil sitting in tankers around Asia. [9:43] So, speaking of finances, we reported earlier that the U.S. is weighing a $20 billion cash for uranium deal for that stockpile that you mentioned. [9:56] Do you think that's wise? [10:00] Well, there would have to be some very substantial connected to that. [10:04] Among them would have to be absolute verification, absolute transparency, absolute commitment that Iran will never enrich uranium again, [10:13] which would be a huge achievement, and then also that the enriched material that is at 60 percent, just one turn of the enrichment process below weapons grade, [10:22] that that would be taken out or accounted for in some fashion, again, verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. [10:30] If you can achieve that, that is not trivial. [10:33] It's an indication, in a way, that Iran is finally willing to swear off one of the biggest sources of tension, of course, [10:41] in the relationship between Iran and the entire world. [10:45] And, of course, successive American presidents of either party would say they will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. [10:51] So this would be a very significant achievement. [10:53] I think that might be certainly worth considering unfreezing. [10:56] Keep in mind, we're not giving them our money. [10:59] We're allowing them access to frozen assets of their own. [11:03] And I think, again, there's some trade space there. [11:06] And then if you can also then get the issue of the Strait of Hormuz resolved, that would be a very favorable outcome. [11:12] Remember, I think I mentioned on your show recently that the paradox was that we could end up with Iran militarily dramatically weakened, [11:20] but strategically strengthened, if we didn't resolve the Strait of Hormuz and also the nuclear issue. [11:26] If you can resolve that, that would be a very favorable outcome for all involved, everybody in the region, really throughout the world. [11:33] General Clark, in announcing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian foreign minister said vessels must still transit through what they called a coordinated route laid out by Iranian authorities. [11:46] Is it unusual at all that Iran would be determining this? [11:49] Well, it's absolutely unusual. [11:53] It's unprecedented and it's illegal. [11:55] And so this is an international waterway. [11:58] They have no right to do this. [11:59] But there still may be mines out there and those mines have to be cleared. [12:04] Someone has to certify that the mines are cleared. [12:07] But, Wolf, in addition to that, as Kareem was saying, this situation will never go back to what it was before because what's happened is Iran has exercised a weapon. [12:19] And that weapon is still there. [12:21] It's still like an axe hanging over international commerce and diplomacy in the region. [12:29] And they've seen how powerful it is. [12:32] And I think we also have to look at the role of China in this. [12:35] When Pakistan's coming in and helping to broker this and convincing China is behind Pakistan, the Saudis are working with Pakistan, it's a temporary fix. [12:48] Yes, it should be open. [12:50] It should be open for China because they're the biggest beneficiary of it, and the Iranians know it, and they can't keep it closed. [12:56] But there's been a real demonstration of strategic power here by the Iranian regime. [13:04] So I just second what Kareem has to say. [13:06] Lots of saboteurs out there, lots of potential pitfalls in the future. [13:11] General Clark, we're about a day into that 10-day proposed truth between Israel and Lebanon. [13:18] Hours after it started, though, the Lebanese army accused Israel of violating the ceasefire. [13:22] The conflict in Lebanon has been a key sticking point in all the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. [13:28] Is Israel playing into Iran's hands here if, in fact, it's violating the ceasefire? [13:35] Of course it is. [13:37] But Iran has never had Hezbollah come back and acknowledge the ceasefire. [13:43] So Hezbollah is a third party left out. [13:45] At any time, Hezbollah could launch a couple of rockets. [13:47] And you can't take away Israel's right to defend itself. [13:51] Israel has that right, and I know that there are many in Israel today who are perplexed by this. [13:57] We saw we were going to get an agreement with Lebanon, and what about Hezbollah? [14:01] We were going to get rid of Hezbollah. [14:02] They're still there. [14:03] What restrictions will emerge on Iran's support of Hezbollah as we try to wrap this up with a complex, complete diplomatic agreement? [14:14] And if there are no such restrictions, we're still in the danger zone, Wolf. [14:19] No doubt about that. [14:20] The danger zone continues. [14:21] General Clark, thank you very much. [14:23] So, look, this war between the United States and Iran, and I'm not even sure whether the United States has declared it officially a war, [14:30] but it has veered and swung from the early parts to now. [14:35] Would you say right now, with this U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, that for the moment it's swung back to the U.S. advantage, like the amount of hold Iran had on the Hormuz Strait is now America's hold on Iranian ports? [14:51] Yeah, I think it's dangerous to look at a war, and this is a war because we're killing each other. [14:59] We may or may not declare it, but that's what on the ground it is. [15:02] It's to look at it like a game where we go by innings and see what the score is in the second inning or the third inning and the fourth inning. [15:10] In reality, the only thing that's going to matter is what happens at the end of the day. [15:14] And so a ceasefire, which is a great thing, is not an outcome. [15:19] The outcome will take time to be clear. [15:22] And as your lead-in said, that outcome won't just be how many targets we hit in Iran. [15:29] It won't be the length of our blockade and the Strait of Hormuz. [15:32] It will be what the status or what is the condition of the region afterward. [15:38] What do our regional allies feel about their security? [15:41] How does essential commerce flow, primarily oil? [15:47] What kind of regime remains in Iran? [15:51] And what are their intentions? [15:53] And so all of those things will play out over time. [15:57] So I think it's too early for us to call the outcome. [16:00] I'm trying to figure out which you think is more important, because I've heard you say outcome with our allies. [16:05] So I do actually want to focus on that for a moment, [16:07] because there really does seem to have been, you know, a total upheaval in the way the allies, [16:13] i.e. the Gulf allies in this case, were looking at the United States for protection, hosting U.S. bases. [16:18] And for them, their nightmare, their insurance policy was precisely against Iran. [16:24] And they do not appear to have come out, you know, with that insurance having worked for them. [16:30] Would you agree? [16:31] And what do you think is the outcome for them? [16:33] I think they are in an uncertain position. [16:38] If we think back to, which I know we both experienced, our incursion into Iraq in 2003, [16:45] there was the idea that we would remove a dangerous regime of Saddam Hussein. [16:48] And he was a dangerous person. [16:51] But in reality, Iraq was not a threat to us, certainly not to the United States and not generally to the world. [16:59] Iran regionally has been a threat to the Gulf states, of course, a threat to Israel. [17:03] Well, the question will be at the end of this, have we created the conditions for them to have unity of effort, [17:12] for us to put together a strategic framework that guarantees commerce, [17:17] that guarantees the ability to collective defense against the kinds of threats that Iran can put forward. [17:25] And to be sure, Iran has been weakened militarily tremendously. [17:30] But their biggest threats, really the biggest threat they posed in the past, [17:35] really came through their proxies, through Hezbollah, through the Houthis, what we struggled with in Iraq. [17:42] And I don't think that that capability has currently been reduced. [17:47] And some would say also their even bigger threat was their nuclear program. [17:53] Only, this is what analysts say, they have revealed that actually their biggest threat is the control [17:59] or the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. [18:02] So when the next round of talks happens, if it does, [18:06] do you think they go in strong on the Strait of Hormuz or now weak on the Strait of Hormuz? [18:12] And could the United States again say, these are our terms and now take them or leave them? [18:19] Well, I think in this particular case, the United States has got to establish freedom of navigation through the Straits. [18:25] And that won't be just the United States, but that has got to be the outcome. [18:29] The challenge there, of course, by geographic location, [18:33] is it doesn't take a lot for Iran to maintain enough threat to make commercial shipping too high risk for most companies to do. [18:43] And so we would have to likely completely destroy Iran's capability, [18:50] which might mean putting soldiers and Marines on the ground to do that. [18:54] And so a negotiated settlement that opens up that strait, I think, has to be a critical or maybe the critical outcome. [19:03] The president of the United States claims that Iran has agreed to no nuclear weapons, a huge sticking point, [19:10] and also that they will surrender so-called nuclear dust. [19:14] It's highly enriched uranium. [19:16] Do you trust Iran will indeed do this or think the U.S. can safely retrieve that material? [19:24] That would be a significant win if it comes out the way the president says it's coming out. [19:30] That would have to be verified on both sides because sometimes language and or overzealous reporting [19:38] could lead one to believe straight up what the president has said. [19:42] But we need to hear that from the Iranians. [19:44] And I would be very proud to give the president a big hand salute if he can make that happen [19:51] and we can stop the shooting and the killing and we can open the Strait of Hormuz again for the global economy before we start to fail. [20:01] It would indeed be a monumental success if that could be achieved. [20:05] The president on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, he says the U.S. blockade on the strait has been very effective. [20:12] Listen to what he said. [20:12] We have a very good relationship with Iran right now, as hard as it is to believe. [20:19] And I think it's a combination of about four weeks of bombing and a very powerful blockade. [20:26] The blockade is maybe more powerful than the bombing, if you want to know the truth. [20:31] Strategically speaking, is the blockade more effective than the bombings to try to force Iran to the negotiating table? [20:36] Yeah, well, right now it's causing the straits to be closed, which is going to put a stress on the Iranian economy. [20:49] It would appear that as opposed to bombing Iran up front, if we just went close to use an economic weapon to cut that ball economically from the rest of the world by closing the strait, [21:02] we could have saved a lot of people's lives. [21:04] But be that as it may, the Navy is doing a superb job in blocking the strait. [21:10] But that does not necessarily, all of our tactical successes we've had in this war has not turned out to achieve the political outcomes. [21:22] And that is to eliminate the nuclear weapons and now to keep the strait of Hormuzo. [21:28] But our Navy is doing a good job. [21:29] They're holding the darn line in the strait. [21:31] But how does that relate to off-ramp and ceasefire and end the war? [21:38] And at the same time, we've got to make some significant progress with what's going on with Israelis in Lebanon because the Iranians has insisted that that be a part of the end of the shooting and the ceasefire also, Laura. [21:52] I echo your praise of our military, truly. [21:56] Speaking of the issue of what's going on in Lebanon, the president did announce a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon. [22:01] He's also optimistic, very much so, about a possible second round of talks. [22:05] Tonight, Lebanon's army, though, accused Israel of violating that ceasefire. [22:10] Talk to me from the perspective of our military troops, who must be in a kind of limbo watching all the negotiations play out in the back and forth. [22:18] How does their negotiation, in the diplomatic sense, does it impact the readiness of our troops? [22:24] Our troops now are about 50,000 of them, if the open source information is correct, all now inside the striking range of the remaining missiles from Iran and whatever drones doing this ceasefire, Iran was able to repair or replace. [22:49] So we're in a more dangerous position because we've got more troops inside Iran's strike zone. [22:56] That has to be a concern of all the commanders on the ground and the troops. [23:02] Once you get to an assembly area, you move into an attack position because the president still hasn't taken off the table, that if he doesn't get what he wants, he still could start bombing again. [23:13] And he still has the option to do some land invasion. [23:16] So the troops are prepared, but the longer they stay in the ready position, the ability to execute missions start to be degraded. [23:27] Those troops have been on those ships now for weeks, locked in on those ships, and they're the greatest Navy in the world. [23:34] But even that will have an impact on them if they have to stay in the ready position all the time, Laura. [23:40] General Honoré, thank you so much. [23:45] God bless America. [23:47] God bless America. [23:48] Joining us, retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Peter Zwack. [23:52] He's a fellow, a global fellow, I should say, at the Kennan Institute. [23:56] General, thanks so much for being with us. [23:58] I want to begin with the latest development. [24:00] Secretary Haig says direct warning to Iran this morning. [24:03] If it refuses to negotiate, he says the U.S. is ready to restart combat operations and will maintain its blockade. [24:11] Do you believe Tehran is actually ready to strike a deal? [24:14] I think that any deal that Iran would strike would be just to buy time. [24:26] As long as a deal involves the giving up of their nuclear stockpile, if you will, [24:37] they are going to, I think, more stall, equivocate, and not fully back whatever is agreed. [24:52] I think in Hegs' statements, it's pressure following our presence. [24:59] But I think that we're learning is that the Iranians, I think, shrug our statements off in most cases. [25:15] I think, finally, you know, I think we're at the point. [25:18] It's still, we have the blockade. [25:20] Ideally, we don't use ground forces. [25:24] The mission is to seize the enriched uranium one way or the other and keep Hormuz open. [25:32] General, the operational command for Iran's armed forces, they've warned Tehran will not allow exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, [25:41] the Sea of Amman, Red Sea, if the blockade continues. [25:46] Do they have the power to do that? [25:47] I mean, obviously, we have seen strikes at a number of ports throughout the region by then. [25:54] Yeah, first, I would agree with Karim. [25:56] The fact is, between the pragmatists and those that still believe in the principles of the Iranian revolution, [26:03] it's clear the IRGC still has a power structure to be behind the scenes and could well be increasing in their power. [26:12] I think the thing we don't talk about a lot with regards to the military power is the speedboat capability that's basically hidden along the beaches, [26:23] the littoral of the Persian Gulf. [26:26] Speedboat is what knocked out and killed Americans in the U.S. [26:32] That's coal attack. [26:33] They have developed their capability. [26:35] These are Boston whaler-sized ships that can attack American ships as well. [26:43] The important thing to remember is they've got a lot of them, so all of them will attack. [26:50] Maybe only 5% will get through, but that 5% of the speedboat capability, all of them armed with anti-ship missiles, can do a lot of damage to the American fleet. [26:59] As President Trump hints at new talks over the war with Iran, the standoff on the Strait of Hormuz is putting increased pressure on potential negotiations. [27:08] U.S. Central Command now says that the blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented [27:12] and that U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea. [27:18] Some new intelligence from the platform Kepler shows that at least two vessels have passed through the strait, [27:25] stopped at the same point in the Gulf of Oman, only to turn around. [27:29] Joining us now to discuss is retired Air Force Lieutenant General S. Clinton Hynote. [27:33] He's a former senior air strategist in the Middle East. [27:36] General, thank you so much for being with us. [27:38] I just first want to get your assessment of how this blockade is going, [27:42] whether you think it is creating significant leverage for the United States. [27:49] Well, Boris, it's great to be with you today. [27:51] I think that the blockade is doing exactly what it's intended to do. [27:55] You know, there's been such a big shift that has happened just in the last few weeks. [28:00] At the beginning of this war, the military was the support head part of our national strategy. [28:08] And now it is very much the support team part as we apply economic pressure all in the effort to get the Iranians back to the negotiating table. [28:19] And from that point of view, the joint force led by the U.S. Navy, they know how to do a blockade. [28:24] Blockades are very important, and it appears this one's working. [28:28] Yeah, CENTCOM says that there are some 10,000 personnel working on this blockade. [28:33] Would you describe it as an especially dangerous mission for the personnel? [28:37] Well, it's probably not quite as dangerous as what we were doing when we were actively bombing Iran, at least for the entire joint force. [28:48] But it's never easy, and there's always danger, especially when we're dealing with combatants. [28:53] So far, the ceasefire appears to have held. [28:56] I hope that continues. [28:57] But our folks have to always be ready for escalation at any moment. [29:02] So it's still very tense. [29:04] If the blockade does continue, Iran's military has threatened to shut down shipping operations in the Red Sea, as well as the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. [29:13] Given what we've heard about the status of Iran's Navy, do you think they have the operational capacity to do that? [29:19] Do they need conventional naval ships to do that? [29:26] Well, when we hear those types of threats, we're not expecting them to do these things in a conventional way. [29:33] We've heard a lot about asymmetry and asymmetric warfare, and that's exactly what they would use in order to increase the economic pain, not just to the United States, but folks who are our friends. [29:46] I heard this morning the Australians were running short on oil, as an example. [29:51] And also people that might be close to Iran, maybe influential with Iran, so that might be China. [29:57] But I would not expect that they would try to do it with a Navy. [30:01] I think they would do it with the threat from missiles and mines, and we've already seen that threat can be very serious. [30:08] Do you think that the United States should do more to deter them? [30:11] How do you see that playing out? [30:13] Well, I think we've done a lot to deter them. [30:19] As we look at, and the Strait of Hormuz is a good example of this, [30:22] we see that in order to stop the shipping, all Iran has to do is create a credible threat to the tankers that are going in and out. [30:33] That doesn't mean that it has to do a lot. [30:36] In fact, in many ways, we can suppress 90%, 95%, 99% of the threats with things like firepower, airpower, sea power. [30:46] But in the end, that 1% still matters. [30:50] And this applies to all the world's choke points. [30:53] This is why it's so important to have control of the seas, [30:57] because the choke points of the world really do control the economic flows.