Republicans give Trump a free pass on the war on Iran — This is America

[0:09] Hello, this is America, and that over there is Congress, the body with the sole power to declare [0:15] war. But it hasn't done it since World War II, and yet the United States has been at war with [0:21] Iran. Now, there is a crucial countdown clock about to run out, and Republicans who control [0:27] that house are getting worried about upcoming elections. We're going to have more on that [0:31] shortly, but first to our Washington studio and Cyril Varnier. [0:34] Phil LaVelle, thank you very much. The War Powers Resolution gives the president the right to [0:40] deploy troops for just 60 days. That deadline expires in one week's time, and the political [0:47] headwinds for both Donald Trump and Republicans are getting stronger. Support for the war is [0:51] slipping. Trump's approval is in the firing line. The party's approval has already tanked. Republican [0:57] lawmakers are under scrutiny over how long they will keep supporting a war that has not been [1:02] authorized by Congress. The costs are high. The military has asked for an extra 200 billion [1:07] dollars. And for the American voter, the knock-on effect is real on the cost of living, on gas prices. [1:13] Polling shows the disapproval of Congress is 86 percent. That is tied for record high disapproval. [1:20] But from the start of the war, most Republicans on Capitol Hill have thrown their support behind [1:26] Donald Trump. After 60 days, any military operation not approved by the Congress must [1:33] come to an end. That's just blatantly unconstitutional. That creates 535 commander-in-chiefs. The Constitution [1:43] designates the president as the commander-in-chief, not for 60 days, but forever how long it takes [1:50] to be commander-in-chief. We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war. The president [1:56] and the Department of Defense have made this very clear. The Department of War has made [1:59] it very clear. This is a limited operation. It would have been a very dangerous gambit [2:04] to take the commander-in-chief's ability in a way to complete this mission. It would have [2:09] been a very serious misstep by Congress. So Donald Trump used his power as commander-in-chief [2:16] to deploy troops and launch attacks on Iran. But you heard there that raises a question [2:20] about whether this is constitutional. On Capitol Hill, Phil Lavelle explains who has the power [2:26] to declare war. See that? That is Congress. And this is the Constitution. It is America's [2:33] original rulebook. But how that place and these pages fit together, especially amidst the war [2:39] in Iran, well, that is on the minds of both Republicans and Democrats right now, both sides [2:45] of the political aisle. So let's break it all down, starting with question number one. What [2:50] is the role of Congress? Well, quite simply, it is to hold the executive branch to account. [2:55] By executive branch, we mean the president, in this case, Donald J. Trump. But when it [3:02] comes to war, the Constitution says only Congress can declare it. That is Congress, not the White [3:09] House. Here's a list of the times in history it has been used. First in 1812 against Great [3:14] Britain, most recently 1942 against these three countries. But there is a war with Iran right [3:22] now. So what's going on? That takes us to point number two. Did Congress give approval? Well, [3:30] short answer, no, it didn't. Which takes us neatly to point number three. Is Congress being [3:36] bypassed? Well, therein lies the issue, and it's largely split along party lines. See, Democrats say, [3:42] yes, absolutely. There is no congressional authorization on the books that would authorize [3:46] this military action. As for Republicans, here's what they say. With respect to abiding by Congress [3:52] and the rule of law, that's something the administration will, of course, always do. [3:56] So back to the rulebook. Here's how it breaks down. The president is commander-in-chief. That [4:02] is in Article 2 of the Constitution, which gives him broad interpretations of national defense. [4:08] Our presidents have launched conflicts in multiple countries under that defense for decades, [4:12] citing the need for rapid response. But there is a caveat here. The war powers resolution. [4:21] Cast your mind back to the Vietnam War and President Nixon. It was passed in 1973 to curb [4:26] presidential power after concerns he had overreached. Now, it requires the president to notify Congress [4:32] within 48 hours of deploying troops, and it limits deployments to 60 days. The president can extend by [4:39] another 30. That is generally a buffer, so U.S. troops can withdraw safely, which means President [4:45] Trump has until May 1st, and then Congress has to act. Now, remember, the war is not popular, but the [4:52] House is controlled by his party, the Republicans. The rules are in black and white. Whether they'll be [4:58] followed to the letter and the spirit, well, that is another matter. Phil Lavelle, Al Jazeera, Washington. [5:06] And here's what's been happening in the U.S. Congress. Since the U.S. started attacking Iran back in late [5:10] February, there have been six votes in total on the war powers resolution that just that Phil just [5:16] explained. That's the resolution to block the president's authority to wage war without formal [5:20] congressional approval. So there were four votes in the Senate, two in the House. All of them have [5:25] failed. So Congress has not voted so far to tie the president's hands. But here's what's interesting [5:30] politically. There has been a significant shift in voting patterns, not in the Senate, but in the [5:35] House. Look at the House. The first resolution failed by seven votes at the beginning of March. So [5:40] Republicans essentially had a buffer of seven votes. The most recent resolution, however, [5:46] just last Thursday failed by just one. The buffer has almost disappeared. Al Jazeera's Mike Hanna is [5:54] at the White House. Patty Culhane is on Capitol Hill. So Patty, just how significant is this shift, [6:01] if that's the right thing to call it, this apparent shift in the center, the political center of gravity [6:07] in Congress? Well, it's very important. And there are signs that Republicans are going to be under even [6:12] more pressure to potentially buck the president. Just to give you one example, the Cook Political Report, [6:17] which is a nonpartisan, highly respected organization. They just recently moved four Senate seats towards [6:24] the Democratic candidates. Some of those seats were, quite frankly, a surprise because they seemed safely [6:30] Republican. Now, Republicans in the Senate always thought they had advantage going into these midterms. [6:35] The map favors them. But it does show that the public's mood is shifting. And again, this all goes [6:41] back to gas prices. It is impossible to drive anywhere from point A to point B in this country, [6:47] usually without passing a gas station. And what do you see at those gas stations? You see very long [6:52] signs with big neon numbers that change. So even if you're not filling up your gas tank every day, [6:58] you're seeing signs of how much more it costs. Donald Trump came to office promising two dollars [7:04] gallon of gas. It has now jumped by more than a dollar since this war started. The average across [7:09] the country is about four dollars. It's much higher in some places. So that's a pressure point for [7:15] Republicans. And they have more leverage. They are, we do expect the Senate's going to vote on the war [7:20] powers resolution sometime today. Nobody seems to really know when. We'll be watching that closely. [7:25] The other thing to watch is when the Trump administration comes to Congress and asks [7:30] for two hundred billion dollars to help fund this war, we've already heard from one Republican senator [7:36] that he's not going to rubber stamp it. And that was Senator Tom Tillis speaking to NBC News Now. [7:44] Now, if you're asking me to cast a vote for two hundred billion dollars supplemental or whatever the [7:48] number is, I have to have details. I don't rubber stamp a generic request for a quarter of a, [7:53] or for a fifth of a trillion dollars without details. Need to know time, place, how it's going [7:59] to be executed. Just for some perspective, Senator Tom Tillis angered the president quite a bit and [8:04] decided not to run for reelection. And we're hearing mixed messages about how long this is going to [8:08] last. The Trump energy secretary said gas prices could be this high into next year. Other [8:14] administrations, including the president, quickly came out and said he is wrong. So was he wrong? [8:19] Was he right? Well, that answer is likely going to have a huge impact on the midterms. [8:24] Let's go to the White House. Mike, you just heard Patty's reporting there that Republicans, [8:29] at least some of them, are getting jittery about this Iran war, where it's going, what it's going [8:34] to mean for them politically six months ahead of an election. But the U.S. president is not on the [8:38] ballot. How much does he have to worry about this? How much does he have to care about his party's [8:45] concerns? Well, as a leader of the Republican Party, he obviously has to care deeply about what [8:50] those election results are likely to be. Then as a president, he would not like to see Democrats [8:56] gain control of the House or indeed of the Senate, because that would impede his own agenda, the things [9:03] that he wants to put in place. If that is not an easy passage through Congress, then that is our major [9:09] problems for him. So although he's not on the ballot, what is on the ballot is his ability to [9:14] govern effectively and to be able to govern without the restrictions of a hostile Congress. [9:21] So it is deeply important for him to win these midterm elections, for the Republicans to win [9:27] these midterm elections, because otherwise it's going to be very difficult for him to continue to [9:32] basically implement the agenda that he wants to. And it is for this reason that we see him [9:38] concerned, it would appear, about those midterm elections. Even during the conflict that has [9:44] been ongoing, the president has maintained his campaign meetings. He's been traveling around [9:49] various parts of the country, whipping up the crowds, stumping, pushing the policies of the [9:54] Republican Party and indeed of his own administration, but most of all insisting that he is doing well, [10:00] his administration is doing well. This is contrary, according to most observers, to every bit of [10:06] evidence that we're seeing rising costs, particularly in the light of this ongoing conflict, which is [10:13] truly driving up the daily cost of living. And that is something that Americans do not like. [10:19] Mike Hanna reporting from the White House, Al Jazeera's Patty Culhane on Capitol Hill. Thank you very much [10:24] to both of you. Now, the uncertainty over when the war will end is testing Republican loyalty to [10:29] President Trump in the Capitol. We've just been discussing that. It's also complicating the path for [10:33] approval of the president's record $1.5 trillion, trillion dollar defense budget. John Holman reports [10:41] from Washington. The U.S. corridors of power haven't been looking so powerful since this conflict [10:48] began. Congress has been unable to stop President Trump's war on Iran. That's because Republican [10:54] lawmakers have repeatedly voted against it. Democrats are angry, pledging to call for a fresh vote every week [11:02] until that changes. And if Republicans block it, we will vote again and again and again until this war [11:12] ends. But things are shifting. Even Republicans in these hallways, although reluctant to break with [11:19] Trump, are beginning to talk about a federal law that says the president must get approval from Congress [11:25] if the war lasts longer than 60 days. That's now just over a week away. He's within that 60 day window. [11:32] And my hope is by the time we reach the end of that 60 days, this conference will be over. [11:36] The president hasn't exactly been keen on letting Congress know what's going on. When the White House [11:42] budget director came here, he wouldn't even give lawmakers a ballpark figure on how much this is [11:49] costing or will cost, saying it fluctuates. But soon the White House will have to ask Congress [11:56] for $1.5 trillion for the 2027 military budget. That could face a difficult road in the two chambers, [12:04] especially as lawmakers were already nervously eyeing a growing affordability crisis ahead of the midterm [12:11] elections. Meanwhile, this week, army veterans staged a protest in the Capitol to demand that their [12:20] representatives step up. They have that power to stop Trump's recklessness. They have that power. [12:28] And I don't understand what in the world are they doing? [12:32] Their presence is a reminder that this is not just about high politics or even high living costs. [12:39] What Congress does or doesn't do will affect lives. U.S. military ones and a much greater number, [12:45] Iranians, too. John Holman, Al Jazeera, Washington. [12:51] So let's bring in our panel today. It's a first actually for both of you on This Is America. So thank [12:55] you so much for coming. Roger Fisk, a former Democratic Party strategist, Barack Obama campaign [13:01] advisor. Rob Arlette is a Republican strategist, former Trump campaign state chair. That was in [13:06] Delaware, right? In Delaware. And you're also a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Delaware. [13:11] Formerly. Formerly. [13:12] How much harder we're six months ahead of the midterms. How much harder does this Iran war make [13:21] it for Republicans running for office? We're going to find out, I think, in November. But I would say [13:28] today, as I've been sharing on your network and many others, that I think that majority of the [13:34] American people, specifically the Republicans, have supported President Trump in this effort [13:38] because, well, for decades, the regime has done what they've been doing and no former U.S. [13:43] president ever had the courage perhaps to do anything about it until President Trump. With [13:48] that being said. Yeah, that wasn't quite my question. With that being said, exactly. My question is how [13:52] much harder is it harder to run for office in this environment when you're a Republican? It's not easy. [13:59] But at the same time, it's a double-edged sword. I say that because we need to support national [14:04] security. We need to support Americans. We need to support our safety and our security. But at the [14:09] same time, for how long? So President Trump stated this war was going to be a war of weeks and not a [14:15] war of months or get it dragged out. And so I've been sharing if this war were to go on beyond April, [14:20] meaning into May, into June, into the summer, it will be very, very, very problematic for President [14:25] Trump and his support. Roger Fisk, this war, six months before an election, it's a gift to Democrats, [14:34] isn't it, at this point? Or is that overstating it? I'm hesitant to ever call anything that has the [14:41] capacity to bring harm and suffering to human beings as a gift. I mean, purely in an electoral sense, [14:49] of course. Of course, I get it. It's, to use Rob's phrase, it is a double-edged sword for the president [14:56] because in one sense, the economy is not doing well. Job production is weak. Then the prices, as we all [15:04] know, and just as the piece before we came on was about the gas prices and things like that. But [15:10] what the Iran war does for him on a day-to-day basis is it eats up a lot of media oxygen. [15:17] And so if the war subsides, a lot of that scrutiny, a lot of that, what I call the daily American [15:23] conversation, will come back to domestic issues. And that's not going to cut well for the president. [15:28] So in a sense, this war is not going well either. But it does dominate a lot of the daily news [15:37] conversation. And that is somewhat to his advantage. The question really is how long. We're hearing even [15:44] earlier today that to demine the Straits of Hormuz could go up to six months. So that pushes us [15:49] into October and November when there could be incidences or ships being harmed by that. [15:55] So I think this has much longer legs than we currently think right now. And I think no matter [16:00] how it cuts, it cuts in a very difficult direction for the incumbent president and the incumbent party. [16:06] Yeah. And the party is really what I'm concerned with today. It's hard to continue this conversation [16:11] without having a few polling numbers. So let's go through those. How likely is the Iran war to have [16:15] an effect on November's midterm elections? What do the polls say about that? So a recent poll by Marquette [16:21] Law School asked voters to rank their critical issues, the issues that matter most to them. [16:25] For most voters, the biggest concern is cost of living. 20% chose the war, followed by immigration [16:32] and the economy. In a different poll, Ipsos asked voters if U.S. military action in Iran had affected [16:38] their personal financial situations. More than half of respondents said that it did. And that Ipsos poll [16:44] asked people if they thought gas prices would get better or worse in the next year. Robert was just [16:49] telling us this has long legs, probably. 63% of respondents said they expected prices to keep rising. [16:55] And the American public's view generally of Congress, we mentioned that, is at or near [17:00] all-time lows. Just 10% of people surveyed in the last, this is a Gallup poll this time, [17:05] said that they approved of how it was handling its job. 86% disapproved. The data shows the decline [17:12] is being driven by Republican voters. Last March, 63% of them approved of what Congress was doing. [17:18] Now, that number has dropped to just 20% support. Rob Arlett, back to you, the campaign trail. [17:27] What kind of discussions, or pre-campaign trail, what kind of discussions are Republicans getting, [17:35] congressmen, congresswomen, senators, when they go back to their constituencies? What kind of questions [17:39] from the public are they having to face right now? Well, they're getting a lot of questions. I would [17:44] tell you that. As you know, I shared that I ran for the U.S. Senate back in 2018 in Delaware. [17:49] And people, when you're out campaigning, you are grassroots. You are connecting with the voters [17:53] one-on-one and in small groups and even sometimes bigger groups. And the questions are going to be, [17:59] Roy, quite simple, based on the polling. And that is, it's all about the economy. [18:04] It's all about the personal economy. What's happening at the kitchen table, [18:07] as my friend had mentioned, it's all about the personal economy for each family. [18:11] And people are not happy right now, well, because gas prices are up. They're actually, [18:15] currently today, they actually have exceeded the gas prices when President Biden had left office. [18:21] So again, but I think people would give some grace to President Trump, knowing it's directly tied to [18:26] the war and the disruption of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. But again, if it gets dragged [18:32] out, it's going to be very problematic for President Trump. But that's the whole thing. It is tied to the [18:36] war. So people will be weighing the impact on their finances versus the benefits that they get [18:43] out of this war. Are Americans, this is for both of you, are Americans seeing benefits from this war [18:48] at this point? I recognize it's early, seven weeks in, but do they see benefits? [18:53] Well, I would say no, not at the moment. And I'll put on my military background. I was a former [18:57] military intelligence, Navy military intelligence background. And so I would say, as of today, [19:02] the answer to that would be no, in my opinion. So it's a net negative for them? [19:07] Today, I think people are investing and are planning and hoping that this will be a successful [19:13] conflict, meaning that the regime will not have access to nuclear weaponry, open up that [19:18] Strait of Hormuz, you know, and stop the proxy bombing and stop the proxy killing of the American [19:23] people. If President Trump can do that relatively quickly in the next, I would say, 30 to 60 days, [19:29] I think all is going to be okay come November. But if it gets dragged out and there's not [19:33] definity and clarity in what I've just shared, President Trump will have a problem and all [19:38] Republicans running come November will also have a championship. [19:41] Roger Fisk, how do the Democrats capitalize on this? [19:47] Every candidate of either party or in either chamber, no matter what they're running for, [19:53] has to start with a blank piece of paper and write down exactly who they are, what they want to do, [19:57] how they intend to win their election and how they intend to contribute to the future of their [20:02] constituents. What the Democrats, and this is a long way of saying what the Democrats cannot do [20:07] is expect that President Trump's stumbles, domestic or international, are just going to [20:13] deliver this for them. I'm not shocked to hear the low poll numbers. I don't think those poll numbers [20:19] for Congress are ever going to change, like, for at least the course of the rest of our lives. [20:24] Not until you and I get in there. Exactly. Then we'll turn it around. But the Democrats need to [20:30] go out and just explain in a very plain, direct way, not only how their agenda is going to help [20:36] people, but also in very targeted ways. Take, for example, farmers in Nebraska and Iowa and Ohio [20:43] and what is going on with the prices around things like aluminum and pesticides and things like that [20:53] that are actually being impacted by what's going on in the Middle East. We would normally get most [20:59] of our aluminum from Canada, but that door has been closed because of the antagonism of this [21:04] administration. Some of our aluminum comes from the Middle East. And so for farmers who need that, [21:11] the fertilizer and things like that, that they get out of the Strait of Hormuz, to your question to [21:16] Rob, that's a very direct impact because in many situations for them, not only has the gas gone up [21:21] for their farm equipment, but the price of fertilizers have gone up by 50 percent. And [21:26] that's with no soybean orders coming from China because of that whole dynamic. So in some parts [21:32] of this country, the day-to-day impacts of this, I think, are very, very real. [21:37] Rob Arlette, the spirit of the U.S. Constitution is that Congress has a say, more than a say, [21:43] in declaring war. At a bare minimum, it is the collective judgment of Congress and the [21:48] president, right, that should be involved in declaring war. I do voters. But that is process. [21:57] That is constitutional law. That is like the whole political side of it. Do voters care about that? [22:05] Well, it depends on who I vote, what side of the aisle they are on. I say that is because today [22:10] Democrats are, well, I would call crying wolf with President Trump and the Republicans because [22:15] they say this is an unauthorized war. That's what the Democrats are saying. However, I think my dear [22:23] friends, and I'm sure Roger's not one of these, but I'm sure that my Democrat friends have all forgotten [22:29] that no president or Congress, I should say, has actually officially declared war in this country [22:35] since World War II. Since the 1940s, Congress has never officially declared war on any country since the [22:43] 1940s. Think about that. That's including the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Iraq War, and the [22:50] Afghanistan War. All of those wars, or one could say conflicts, were never declared official and legal [22:56] wars by Congress. But yet they still occurred. So Democrats, again, have selective memories when it [23:03] comes to this. At the same time, I think if, because the razor-thin margin of a majority that the [23:10] Republicans have is very, very close. And that's why the pressure is even more so on Republicans [23:15] and President Trump to deliver because of that narrow threat. There's, there's a but, right? [23:19] There's a, there's a counter to that. And Roger, I meant to ask you about this. So when Barack Obama [23:24] was considering military action against Syria for having used chemical weapons on, on their own [23:28] people, he was hesitant. I think it's fair to say. He put it to a vote in Congress. Congress said, no, [23:34] we don't want to do this. Barack Obama did not go to war, did not use military action against Syria [23:38] in that context. So that is an example of a U.S. president bringing Congress into his wartime [23:44] decisions. Roger, do you have any insight into, into that decision, how it was made? This idea of [23:51] like, let's bring in Congress. I think the, the president at the time, President Obama, realized [23:57] that what you want to do going into a conflict like this, and there were plenty of other examples [24:02] with drone strikes and, and extraditions from this country where he was comfortable moving forward. [24:08] But where possible, you do it ideally with, with Congress, ideally with the support of the American [24:13] people, but also with our allies. And I think what the current administration is now experiencing [24:18] when they turn around and they expect kind of our allies to join them in, in, in de-conflicting the [24:24] strait, for example, when they weren't consulted to begin with, when this administration has spent the [24:29] last year and a half insulting our allies. And by that, I mean, specifically the Western democracies. [24:34] Presidents gravitate towards foreign policy in their second terms because they, they have more mobility [24:42] to move within some of these emergency declarations and some of the things that your questions are [24:47] based on. But they're very ill-advised, um, to, when they move independently, uh, because now the [24:55] president has gone out without allies. He's gone out with the American people and started this in, [25:01] with the foundational message to the American people being that we started a war to prevent a war, [25:08] but it's not really a war, but it's been a war for 47 years. And once you have that very shaky, [25:14] kind of, uh, ruptured foundation of, of, of a, of a justification, then from there on out, [25:21] you're just setting in motion, um, things that are not going to be, uh, broadly supported, [25:26] um, because he didn't solicit that, uh, that support at the beginning and the justifications, [25:31] as we've already seen up through, including this morning shift weekly, if not daily. [25:37] Roger Fisk, former democratic party strategist, Barack Obama campaign advisor. Thank you very [25:42] much. Rob Arlett, Republican strategist, former Trump campaign state chair in Delaware. Thank you [25:46] very much to both of you gentlemen. Thank you. The debate on Capitol Hill has spilled over into the [25:52] online arena as it often does. Republicans, Democrats sparring verbally in the Senate and the House [25:57] over Iran. Continuing after hours on social media, Alex Baird has been following the to and fro. He [26:03] has this report from Capitol Hill. So behind me in the Senate chamber last week, Democrats once again [26:09] tried to rein in Trump's war powers, but for a fourth time, Republicans said no. That failed [26:15] resolution had been pushed by Democrat Tammy Duckworth. She's now calling out to GOP colleagues [26:20] as cowards, cowards who are putting Trump's ego first. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer is [26:26] pledging to push that resolution every single week. But back on the Republican side, there's a call [26:32] for loyalty. House Republican Mike Lawless says to restrict Trump's ability to defend the country [26:38] is dangerous. After all, he is commander in chief. Congressman Thomas Massey is widely seen as an [26:45] offside Republican. He's now being accused by some of being with the enemy. Russell Frye says yes, [26:51] Congress does have a role, but the U.S. must lead with strength. All Democrats are being accused of [26:57] opposing the president at every single turn. Whatever the side of the aisle, it's clear [27:03] the Congress is refusing at this point to limit the president's powers. Alex Baird there. And that [27:11] is it from the team in Washington looking at the new reality for the Republican Party nearly two months [27:16] into the war with Iran. On This is America, we'll keep following the decisions that shaped the U.S. [27:21] and influenced the world. For now, back to Al Jazeera's headquarters in Doha.