Predictable? Soldier Arrested Over Maduro Bets

[0:00] It's Friday, April 24th, and you could bet on something like this happening. [0:04] We start here. [0:08] An American soldier is arrested for allegedly betting on his own operation. [0:13] The sources told us that he is someone who was [0:15] deeply involved with the execution of this raid. [0:18] There's about to be some predictable scrutiny on prediction markets. [0:21] The federal government has finally mellowed on pot. [0:24] There is an accepted medical use, and this opens the door to a lot of research. [0:29] This was a revolutionary day for the cannabis industry, but doctors have some blunt questions. [0:34] And how's this for the spirit of generosity? [0:37] Helping them out, meaning bailing them out, or buying it. [0:40] I think we just buy it. [0:41] While the US government is considering bailing out an airline. [0:45] ABC News, this is Start Here. [0:50] I'm Brad Milkey. [0:51] If you listened to our show yesterday, [0:58] you heard us talking about these new things called prediction markets. [1:01] Polymarket and Calci are two of the biggest prediction markets in the country, [1:06] taking bets, not just on sports, but on anything. [1:09] A couple years ago, federal courts declared that betting on federal elections was legal. [1:14] There have been lots of concerns since. [1:16] Because it's not just about betting on political races. [1:19] Over the last few months, we have seen several anonymous investors [1:22] placing big bets on actions taken by the Trump administration. [1:27] Take the day the US began bombing Iran. [1:30] Well, in the days leading up to those attacks, [1:32] someone placed a series of big bets that Ayatollah Khomeini was about to be killed. [1:37] The account's name was MAGA My Man. [1:40] Bets had been placed on missile launches and ceasefires. [1:43] At one point, Polymarket apologized and deleted a market [1:46] where people bet on the fate of crashed Air Force pilots. [1:50] Which raises the question, if someone in the inner circle of national security [1:54] wanted to make some money, could they place a bet on something they knew was about to happen? [1:59] Or, take it a step further, could someone conceivably greenlight an operation [2:04] because they had already placed bets on it? [2:07] Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising wager placed recently was that Nicolas Maduro, [2:11] the leader of Venezuela, would be removed from power. [2:14] That was placed just days before Maduro was, guess what, captured in a midnight raid. [2:19] The bettor made $400,000. [2:23] Yesterday, we learned the DOJ had arrested that bettor, saying, [2:27] it's a soldier in the U.S. Special Forces. [2:30] Let's start the day with ABC's Peter Haralambus, who is on the team that broke that story. [2:33] Peter, what have we learned? [2:35] Yeah, Brad, after months of mystery, we finally figured out who is the person allegedly [2:40] behind this massive trade. [2:43] Prosecutors allege that Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a Master Sergeant with U.S. Special Forces, [2:49] was deeply involved in the planning and the execution of that high-stakes overnight raid [2:55] that led to the capture and removal of Nicolas Maduro and his wife. [2:59] A massive joint military and law enforcement raid flawlessly executed [3:04] by the greatest Americans our country has to offer. [3:08] Prosecutors say that as Van Dyke was involved in planning this raid, [3:12] he created a Polymarket account on the day after Christmas, and then in the following days, [3:17] began to bet money on different wagers related to what was going on in Venezuela. [3:24] In total, he bet more than $33,000 on four different wagers on Polymarket, [3:31] one about Maduro being out by January 31st, 2026, [3:35] one about Trump invoking the War Powers Act, and then two more about whether the United States [3:40] would invade Venezuela. In total, according to prosecutors and according to this man's [3:45] Polymarket account, he made nearly $410,000. [3:49] Unbelievable. If true, do they say that he was part of the raid itself then? Like, [3:54] he probably even knows what night it's going to be, or do they not know? [3:57] Yeah, sources told us that he is someone who was [4:00] deeply involved with the execution of this raid. The indictment, though, [4:03] is vague on the details, but it does include this note that Van Dyke had a photo on his Google [4:10] account that showed him on the deck of the USS Iwo Jima. That's the ship Maduro was removed to [4:16] after his capture. And in that photo, Van Dyke was wearing military fatigues, [4:21] holding a rifle alongside other service members, kind of suggesting the nature of his involvement in [4:27] this. What has Polymarket said about this, Peter? Because from the outside, this seems like [4:31] the thing everyone was cynical about with these prediction markets. That, yeah, you can bet on [4:37] what you think is going to happen, but somebody could just be betting with inside information on [4:40] what they know is about to happen, including perhaps even government employees or officials. [4:45] Yeah. At this point, Polymarket is trying to portray this as a success. They're saying that this arrest [4:51] is proof that the system works and that they cooperated with this investigation, [4:55] and actually made the referral that initiated it. That being said, I think this is kind of the most [5:01] glaring example we've seen to date of someone using allegedly inside information to profit handsomely. [5:08] This is actually the first time in the history of these kind of prediction markets that the [5:12] Department of Justice has prosecuted a case of insider trading. Right. We had just said how [5:17] Calci the other day had decided not to involve the DOJ when they were suspending some of those [5:22] politicians. Peter, what role does the government play in all this going forward? Because if we've [5:27] gamified everything in our society to the point where you're not just looking to make money on [5:32] companies' continued success on the stock market, you can make money knowing that the president will [5:37] say a certain word in his speech. You can make money knowing who Time Magazine will put on their cover. [5:41] These are real bets that have been placed in the past. Is there a way to regulate that before we just [5:46] start assuming as Americans that every big decision was actually timed to pay somebody off somewhere? [5:53] So just minutes after we went out with this reporting yesterday, President Donald Trump was [5:58] speaking in the Oval Office and he was directly asked about this. And during his remarks, he basically [6:04] said he doesn't like the fact that these kind of prediction markets have basically made the world a casino. [6:09] Every place they're doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it [6:13] conceptually, but it is what it is. That being said, his administration, his direct family has [6:19] been very supportive of these kinds of markets. For example, Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, [6:25] is on the advisory board and has a stake in Polly Market itself. So really questions here about if [6:32] the president means what he what he said yesterday in terms of not liking these markets or if they will [6:37] be able to continue running with relatively little oversight. No, I think that I'm not happy with any [6:43] of that stuff. At this point, though, it seems like both Polly Market and Kalshi are trying their best to [6:49] present themselves to regulators as companies that are responsible, that would make referrals when [6:54] necessary, that can identify irregular trades. The hope there is, I think, that self-regulation would [7:00] prevent more and more federal oversight. But I think this example really brings to light the stakes here [7:07] and the big question about whether or not there are the right enforcement mechanisms, the right [7:12] safeguards in place, because in a way, this prosecution was aided by the fact that this soldier [7:18] is a U.S. government employee. Because of that, they were able to use a particular law that's been [7:23] around for decades. But in the case of private individuals, that's where it gets trickier. [7:29] Experts say there are big questions about whether private individuals who have non-public information, [7:34] how they can even be prosecuted under the current statutes in place. We're beginning, [7:39] though, to see a little bit of a bipartisan push from Congress, from individual states, [7:43] to put more regulation in place, though. [7:45] Yeah, I was going to say, there is a regulatory body here, the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading [7:51] Commission. They have reportedly had some of their staffing slashed in recent months. There have been [7:55] questions about whether the White House actually wanted them going after people. They were [7:58] co-signing onto this investigation here, and now have actually filed a suit of their own [8:03] against this soldier. Peter Haralambos, thank you. [8:06] Thanks so much, Brett. [8:07] Next up on start here, weed growers in the federal government. Not best buds, [8:14] but a new joint effort after the break. You might have noticed, in fact, some of you might have [8:23] celebrated that earlier this week was 420, the day marijuana users around the world have designated [8:29] to puff puff pass. And that always kind of reignites the debate around cannabis use in this country. [8:34] For all the steps that states have taken to legalize weed, maybe your state is one of them, [8:39] the drug remains illegal in the eyes of the federal government. Fewer people are arrested for [8:44] pot than used to be, but those arrests still play a major role in prison systems around the country. [8:49] And state-approved cannabis use has turned into its own major economic force. So, if you're the [8:55] federal government, what do you do about it exactly? Last year, President Trump signed an executive [9:00] order, telling the Justice Department to examine what changes it could make. Well, yesterday, [9:05] in an extraordinary move, the DOJ reclassified marijuana on the federal books. [9:11] A lot of people suffering from big problems, which seems to be the best answer. [9:16] They're very happy about it, so the rescheduling is starting. [9:19] Let's go to Dr. Alok Patel. He's a physician at Stanford Children's Health. He's also an ABC [9:24] News medical contributor. Dr. Patel, reclassification, what does that mean exactly? [9:28] Dr. Absolutely. So, off the bat, what this means is that marijuana is moving from a Schedule [9:33] 1 substance, which generally have no accepted medical uses, high abuse potential. Think heroin [9:40] or LSD. And it's moving to become a Schedule 3 substance, which can have an accepted medical use. [9:47] There is still potential risk or abuse potentials. Other medications in this schedule include ketamine, [9:54] steroids, Tylenol with codeine. But importantly, there is an accepted medical use, and this opens [9:59] the door to a lot of research. And listen, especially in 420, with a lot of people talking about weed, [10:06] people say that this move is about 50 years coming and that marijuana should have never been classified [10:12] as a Schedule 1 substance. So, aside from the cannabis industry, which might be celebrating some of the [10:19] banking and taxing changes, a lot of people are excited about the potential for more accepted [10:24] medical uses, more research, and healthcare professionals are excited about the potential [10:29] to see these clinical trials go forward. So, we better know when and if certain cannabinoid [10:35] marijuana products are acceptable for our patients. Which is just so I'm clear though, [10:38] because sometimes I'll talk about marijuana being legal in certain states and our legal department will [10:43] be like, no, no, it's not. It's federally illegal. They're just effectively turning a blind eye to the [10:49] states that have passed these laws. Is that still the case or what? That's an important distinction, [10:53] because the actual legality of marijuana use is going to depend on which state you live in, [10:59] whether it is legal for recreational use or medicinal use. So, this reclassification doesn't [11:05] mean that you can immediately run into a pharmacy and go get medical marijuana, but it does kind of open [11:11] the door not only for more medical research, but possibly for states to take further action in the [11:16] legality. Yeah, and tell me how this is going to end up affecting people with it. You mentioned [11:20] research is a big part of this. Why? I think this is probably the biggest part when it comes to [11:25] the medical profession. You know, there are multiple clinical trials happening that are involving some [11:30] form of marijuana. And these are clinical trials looking at conditions such as chronic pain, [11:35] seizure conditions, inflammatory conditions, migraines. There's so many different uses. [11:41] And PTSD is another one I should bring up as well. There's different mental health conditions [11:45] that we're studying, and we're trying to figure out how exactly the different cannabinoids may affect [11:50] people. And, you know, a clinical trial is one thing, but actually getting the research and getting [11:55] the resources to move these forward is a whole other ballgame. We want to know at what dose [12:02] can marijuana help our patients? What's the risk profile look like? What's the age in which this [12:08] should be given? Think about any other medication, any other medication at all, any prescription, [12:12] whatever. We have clear indications of when and who and if people should get it. We don't have that. [12:17] And like, it's tough to do. And it's tough to do that if it's classified like heroin, [12:20] because they're not like, that's the thing. You don't give away heroin to patients being like, [12:24] see what the dosage is like for you. But that is exactly what's happening right now [12:28] with medical marijuana is there's many people who are going to dispensaries or going online, [12:33] they're talking to people. And it's a little bit of trial and error. It's a little bit of listening to [12:38] anecdotes about what product and what dose you should be taking. And I also want to make sure I'm [12:43] paying respect to just how many cannabinoids there are out there. The most famous ones people talk about [12:48] are THC and CBD, but there's over a hundred others and they may have different therapeutic [12:56] benefits as well. CBD, CBC, CBG. There's many others out there and people will take some and say, [13:03] hey, my migrates feel a lot better. I'm able to sleep better. My appetite's improved. And I want to [13:08] respect what people are going through and say, it's time the science, the research matches the user [13:14] experience. It's a little crazy that we can give a young child with chronic pain, with terminal [13:21] illness, a narcotic, but I can't always give them a CBD gummy, for example, because we don't have the [13:28] research to support that use case. So does it sound as a medical professional, then it sounds like [13:33] you're like, Yeah, here we go. Marijuana for everyone. Let's do it. Slow the reefer, maybe not for [13:38] everyone. But I am excited to see more research and use cases for people who truly need it. But you know, [13:44] I do have to be the fun police and say, I want to make sure that we have the data because there [13:47] is the potential for addiction, for drug interactions. We don't yet know what the [13:51] psychiatric risks. There's vulnerable populations who probably shouldn't be using marijuana and [13:56] pediatrician hat on. I'm worried about young people, adolescents and teens and using marijuana, [14:02] especially while they still have a developing brain. And we're seeing more research about the [14:06] potential harms long term. So completely different topic. But guess what? But every medication has risks [14:12] and benefits. And we need to better understand what those are when it comes to marijuana, [14:16] when it comes to the over 100 cannabinoids, right, and completely changes the ballgame, [14:20] you'd think for these state licensed commercial cannabis companies that now can tell banks and [14:26] creditors like, hey, we are fundamentally different than we were just a few days ago. [14:30] Dr. Alok Patel, thank you. Brad, you've got it anytime. [14:36] Yesterday, we told you about how dire the situation is becoming for airlines around the world, [14:41] especially in Europe and Asia that rely so much on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. [14:47] But recently, an American air carrier has been in such dire straits that there have been [14:52] questions about whether they can even stay in business. There is new trouble for Spirit Airlines. [14:56] Another bankruptcy filing by Spirit Airlines. Spirit Airlines could begin liquidating as early as this [15:02] week. Spirit Airlines has been teetering for a while now. Well, this week we learned the Trump [15:07] administration might be considering a half-billion-dollar bailout for this company. [15:12] Let's go to ABC's Elizabeth Schulze, who covers business for us. Elizabeth, [15:15] first off, what is happening with Spirit? Like, how did this get so bad? [15:18] Yeah, it's pretty bad for Spirit Airlines, Brad. We're talking about an air carrier that has filed [15:24] for bankruptcy now two times. This is the well-known budget air carrier. You know, [15:30] you think of low-cost flights, you think of Spirit, those yellow planes, really low fees, [15:35] but you often get dinged with some of those add-on fees when you're actually booking with them. [15:38] But this is an airline that is really trying to make its name, offering the lowest-cost flights [15:42] possible. And that has ultimately been a business model that hasn't worked out for it, [15:47] as we've seen because of two bankruptcy filings. The company was going to emerge from that second [15:52] bankruptcy, but then along came the Iran war. And we saw jet fuel costs roughly double in just a time [15:59] of less than two months. The airline basically said that that threw a wrench into its balance sheet [16:06] that it didn't see coming. And it created all sorts of financial headaches and put it in a position [16:11] where ultimately, according to sources, Spirit was in a position where it could have to liquidate, [16:14] shut down because its financial situation became so bad, Brad. [16:18] And so now there's a potential bailout in the works? What would that be? [16:22] Right. So a source familiar with this matter tells us that Spirit Airlines and the Trump administration [16:29] are in advanced discussions about the terms of a rescue deal. So we are told that this deal could [16:36] include a $500 million loan from the federal government. The terms have not been finalized [16:43] at this point, but it could also include an option for the government, the federal government, [16:49] to take a stake in Spirit Airlines up to 90%. So basically the government could become the majority owner [16:56] in Spirit Airlines. We're looking at helping them. We have 18,000 people that live [17:02] in this country that are great people and great employees. And we're thinking about doing it, [17:07] helping them out and meaning bailing them out or buying it. I think we just buy it. [17:11] This has not been finalized. The White House says that this is something that President Trump and [17:17] the Commerce Department are tracking. We'd be getting it virtually debt-free. They have some good [17:24] aircraft, good assets. And when the price of the oil goes down, we'll sell it for a profit. [17:29] I'd love to be able to save those jobs. I'd love to be able to save an airline. I like having a lot [17:34] of airlines. Spirit Airlines says that as of now, it's business as usual. Flights are operating. Guests [17:40] can continue to book flights, travel, use credits. If you have a ticket booked, it's on track as of now, [17:46] at least, Spirit says. Well, and the CEO came out with a statement expressing thanks to President Trump [17:51] for considering this. He said they look forward to a solution that protects jobs and low costs for [17:56] travelers, he kept driving home. But Elizabeth, I get why he wants this, right? I get why Spirit [18:00] would want to bail out. Why does the U.S. government, because it sounds like at this point, [18:04] there's even opposition among some of President Trump's own allies. Yeah, this pretty much [18:09] immediately faced fierce opposition, Brad. We saw bipartisan backlash. Republican Senator Ted Cruz [18:15] said that this is an absolutely terrible idea, that the government doesn't know a damn thing, [18:19] in his words, about running a failed budget airline. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat [18:24] from Massachusetts, also said that she opposes any sort of bailout. You know, we have seen the [18:30] government bailout airlines in the past. Think of COVID. We're going to back the airlines 100%. [18:36] It's not their fault. We saw more than $50 billion from the federal government to basically give a [18:42] lifeline to the airlines. But that was a very different situation, Brad. At that time, [18:46] travel was pretty much halted overnight because of the pandemic. And these airlines were, [18:51] they said, on the brink of collapse. Very different than one budget air carrier that's [18:56] a much smaller market share, about 3% of flights in the U.S. are on Spirit. Right. [19:01] You know, getting a lifeline from the government and getting a potential stake [19:05] of ownership from the federal government. Spirit actually tried to merge with JetBlue [19:11] during the Biden administration and that deal was blocked. We allege that if allowed to proceed, [19:15] this merger will limit choices and drive up ticket prices for passengers across the country. [19:21] So they are actually saying this would be a way to kind of right that wrong, [19:25] make sure that the thousands of workers who work at Spirit would keep their jobs and that this would [19:30] maintain a, you know, budget friendly option for a lot of American flyers, too. [19:35] We have somebody that wants to run it, do a good job, smart person. And if they run it properly and [19:42] if prices come down, all of a sudden it's a valuable asset. But also, Brad, you'd have to imagine that [19:48] in the minds of people within the Trump administration, there is this reality that [19:53] do you want to see an American company go under blaming, at least in part, this spike in costs [20:01] because of the Iran war. The reason that we have seen. Because of your war, Mr. President, [20:07] this is why we finally collapsed. Like, that's not the headline you want. I mean, [20:10] the reason that we have seen those jet fuel costs go up is undoubtedly because of the, [20:15] you know, the standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. And no doubt about it, Spirit Airlines had problems [20:20] before that. But this made those problems a lot worse. Yeah, really interesting, especially because [20:25] we've seen other bailouts in other industries. Some of them have worked and been profitable. Some of them [20:30] have not. Some of them the U.S. has lost money on because companies just go under. They can't pay [20:34] the loans back. In all these cases, though, economists have made the arguments that the [20:38] more you float this idea to companies that, yeah, maybe you could get a government bailout, [20:42] the more irresponsible risks these companies might take, assuming they'll get help later [20:46] down the line. All right. Elizabeth Schulze, thank you. Thank you, Brad. [20:50] Okay, one more quick break. When we come back, you think you'd expect ice on Mount Everest, but no one [20:57] expected this. One last thing is next. And one last thing. It's that time of year when [21:07] mountaineers are getting ready to summit the biggest, baddest peak of them all, Mount Everest. [21:14] April and May are often when the weather is most stable, which means people are all converging on [21:19] the mountain right now. We often hear reports of traffic jams on the trails. But this year, [21:24] there's another problem. Not a traffic jam, a straight up roadblock. On the trek up to the summit, [21:31] there is a base camp, followed by four other camps. Just below what is called Camp 1 is this gigantic [21:37] block of ice. This is glacial ice that has fallen right into the middle of the trail. It's too wide [21:45] to go around without putting some cliffs into play. When I heard about this, though, I was like, well, [21:49] so what? These are mountain climbers. Climb over the thing. It's 100 feet high, and the bottom is [21:55] unstable. Imagine falling off of a 10-story building. So what do you do? Well, according to Sherpas, [22:01] the indigenous guides from Nepal who run the trail, you just gotta wait for it to melt. Lucky for them, [22:07] weather is nice right now, and they think that melting could happen within days. But once this [22:12] glacier ice does melt, that won't give climbers the green light. Usually, Sherpas are up at higher [22:18] elevations right now, clearing paths, setting up ropes. They have not been able to move higher than [22:24] this ice block, which means down below, delays are mounting. The most exciting thing to do right now [22:31] is watch ice melt. I heard about a block of ice. I was picturing something you could, like, [22:37] get at the liquor store. This is much bigger. Hey, by the way, I mentioned it was take your kid to work [22:42] day. Let's put some of these kids to work. We got Tara Gimble's son with us. Sawyer is on the mic, [22:47] Sawyer. Show us what you got, man. Starred here is produced by Kelly, Trez, Jen Newman, Anthony, [22:57] Alan Ferrer, and Elmi Schatz. [23:02] Yes, well done. Ariel Chester is our social media producer. Josh Cohan is director of podcast [23:09] programming. I'm our managing editor. Thanks to John Newman, Tara Gimble, Eamon McNiff, [23:13] and Katie Dendos. Special thanks this week to Trevor Hastings, Desiree Adib, [23:17] Oren Oppenheim, Charlotte Gardner, and Eric Strauss. That's Sawyer. I'm Brad Milkey. I'll see you next week. [23:23] Brad Milkey is our editor.