Potential Strait of Hormuz withdrawal ‘hugely complex’ operation, warns ex-UK general

[0:00] I want to take a closer look at what is reportedly included in the one-page memorandum between the U.S. and Iran. [0:05] Now, Iran would agree not to develop a nuclear weapon, but it would be able to enrich uranium to a low level after at least 12 years. [0:14] The U.S. would agree to lift its sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. [0:20] Both sides would lift restrictions on transit through the state of Hormuz within 30 days of signing the deal. [0:26] Now, Simon Mayle is a retired British Army general and he's a former Middle East advisor for the U.K. Ministry of Defence. [0:32] He's joining us live from London. So thank you very much indeed for being with us. [0:36] General, I want to ask you about the strategic elements of this, because in the event that this memorandum of understanding is actually happening [0:44] and it follows the wording that we believe is on it, it will, of course, lead to a withdrawal of forces from the state of Hormuz, [0:51] which is very crowded at the moment. [0:54] So can you just describe to us what the process is when you're managing a withdrawal from a scenario like that? [1:02] Well, it's hugely complex, Rob. [1:04] Having put together, obviously, the Iranians have the advantage of being the force in situ. [1:11] They have the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz and they've obviously got depth. [1:15] The Americans have assembled a vast, by anybody's standards, vast armada, three carrier groups, two marine expeditionary units, [1:25] four or five hundred aircraft in the area, the 82nd Airborne, et cetera. [1:29] That takes a lot of gathering. [1:31] And then, of course, the third parties in the regional aspect are, of course, the defensive capabilities of the Gulf states. [1:39] So everybody's on standby at the moment. [1:42] We've seen what the Americans can do. [1:44] We've seen what the Iranians can do. [1:47] And there's been an awful lot of restraint, I would argue, by the GCC countries. [1:52] Now, if the Americans stand by, stand down and start withdrawing the task force or just, you know, [2:00] the first thing you could do, obviously, is lift the blockade, still keep your forces there. [2:04] But sooner or later, you've got to start rotating crews and ships. [2:08] You've got to resupply them. [2:10] The Americans have got lots of other commitments throughout the world, not least in China. [2:14] So they will not want to disassemble this armada before they're clear that there is a deal that is binding. [2:24] And that's always with a ceasefire. [2:26] You know, that's what it is what it says. [2:27] We stop firing or less fire in many cases. [2:31] But something that either brings the Americans back to start attacking Iran again or something where the Iranians start blocking the Strait of Hormuz again over the next weeks, months, even years, [2:42] will not be an outcome, as your previous interviewees have said, that the Gulf states or any of us, frankly, would want to see as the finale of this current conflict. [2:54] So how do you coordinate something like that when you've got two antagonists in the same and very small theatre operating? [3:02] How does that coordination work so that there is no misunderstanding, there is no miscommunication, misinterpretation of movement of equipment or troops? [3:13] Very, very, very good question, Rob, because we always talk about confidence building measures. [3:18] The difficulty at the moment is we're not entirely sure who's in control or command in Iran. [3:25] And I was interested that somebody, obviously, in the Iranian chain of command decided they would launch attacks on Fujaira and possibly other commercial shipping. [3:37] And, of course, the reports was that they had attacked the American warships going through the Strait of Hormuz. [3:43] And there's always a danger that hardliners do not want a solution or do not or are not controlled. [3:50] We've seen any number of conflicts. [3:51] So you do need confidence that when the orders come down, that there is a ceasefire, there's an armistice, there's the start of a peace process, that you can withdraw. [4:04] And it needs a lot of observers, often external observers, to come in. [4:09] And then you need to test faith. [4:11] And, of course, at the moment, warships might might transit. [4:16] But most civilian ships with civilian crews on board will be very nervous, insurance, let alone duty of care, of putting any vessel through the Strait of Hormuz unless they have some some sort of guarantee. [4:30] At one stage, of course, it was that the Iranians would would allow through those that they felt were not in the antagonist camp. [4:36] But the Americans would put a stop to that. [4:39] So it would be very much a layered approach, which will require a degree of confidence, because the snapback would would be one of violence again. [4:47] And the Iranians have got to work out what's in their advantage. [4:50] They're under huge economic pressure, let alone the military pressure they've been under. [4:55] Obviously, we've been seeing the global economic impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. [5:00] Interestingly, I'm just watching the spot price of Brent crude at the moment. [5:03] It's been dropping fairly steadily over the last couple of hours. [5:07] It started the day at about 108. [5:09] It's now down about 101. [5:10] And we're going to see what impact this announcement has on that price. [5:14] The reason I'm mentioning it is obviously because there are a great many ships which are going to be which are currently in the Strait of Hormuz, [5:22] which are wanting to get through the Strait or wanting to transit. [5:25] But the way you're describing the level of the caution, if you like, around a withdrawal like that, this is not a short process. [5:32] This is going to take a great deal of time, which does mean the Strait could be, at the very least, limited for quite a significant amount of time. [5:40] Am I right? [5:42] It could very much so, Rob. [5:44] You know, one, two ships, everything that had got through the Strait of Hormuz has now either arrived or just about to arrive at its destination. [5:52] Then there's going to be a big gap. [5:54] And as somebody would say, you know, the oil travels around the world at about the speed of a bicycle. [5:59] So when you get a lag, a big gap, it takes quite a long time for that tanker to get where it's going to go. [6:05] Now, that is going to be the backdrop, as one of your previous interviews very, very, very soundly said, to the Trump-Xi discussions in China. [6:14] Because China, you know, we talk about the global economy, but actually the pressured economy in terms of the Americans is, of course, Iran and the potential for social unrest there, [6:24] which could lead to regime change, fall, whatever. [6:26] And the other one is the Chinese feeling that their vulnerability to the fact that the Americans can always dominate the maritime sea lanes at the moment [6:34] is something that they will be very keen to get the Iranians to make the sort of concessions which will have to be significant enough for the Americans to accept them. [6:44] So just opening the Straits for moves without a deal on the nuclear, without a deal on ballistic missiles, without a deal on proxies, [6:50] all of which are terribly complicated, will be difficult. [6:53] But opening the Straits will be one of those confidence-building measures that could be enacted as other details are worked out. [7:00] Simon Mayo is a former Middle East advisor for the UK Ministry of Defence. [7:03] He's also a retired British Army general. [7:05] Sir, we appreciate it. Thank you very much indeed.