Panel: Is Iran or Trump the real ceasefire winner?

[0:00] Where are we now, Bobby? Because this 10-point plan that presumptively is going to be the basis [0:06] of negotiations is pretty extreme on the Iranian side, as one would expect. I mean, [0:13] it gives them control over the Strait of Hormuz. It allows them to charge tolls. [0:16] It calls for reparations, effectively. It asks for a lot of different things. So where do we [0:21] stand right now? Well, only yesterday the White House was briefing reporters and saying that [0:25] the 10 points that Iran had put forward were unacceptable, that they were maximalist. [0:30] That was the term that was used. I think Axios was reporting that, and that it would not be [0:35] considered. Today, Trump is saying that it's the basis of a conversation. Now, it's not unusual [0:40] for two sides in a negotiation to start from maximalist positions and then find their way [0:45] to something that both sides can agree on. But we don't yet have anywhere near enough information. [0:51] We've heard that there's a 10-point plan. The White House has not released this 10-point plan. [0:55] The Iranians have not released the 10-point plan. An Iranian news agency, which is usually [1:01] the mouthpiece of the government, has released only the sketchiest idea of a 10-point plan, [1:06] and that includes the points that you make that they get to decide who goes through Hormuz. [1:10] They get to, the United States has to leave. All American military personnel have to leave [1:15] from the region that they get to decide on their nuclear program, uranium enrichment program. These [1:24] are things that surely, after all of what we've seen take place, after everything that the president [1:31] has said over the last month and a half, none of these things should be acceptable at face value to [1:37] the Trump administration. But now the president says, at this late hour, that it's a basis of a [1:43] feminization. Yeah. And I mean, and all the things that you're saying were true yesterday, [1:47] throughout the entire day yesterday. So why move the goalposts tonight, just hours before his [1:55] deadline? Well, I agree with some of what was said there. We don't really know what's in the 10 points. [2:00] We haven't seen it. We also don't know what conversations have been had with a lot of other [2:05] countries. There's a lot of reporting tonight that maybe China was involved, that maybe other [2:09] countries got engaged here in mediating this. So there's obviously a lot of players in the room [2:15] having conversations that we're simply not privy to. So I think we're all probably going to be [2:19] watching over the next two weeks to see how the negotiations turn out. What I'm most interested in [2:24] is what happens to the nuclear program of Iran. To me, that was the biggest piece of why we were [2:29] doing this. The president drew a red line. They will never get a nuclear weapon. That's why we were [2:33] doing this, along with taking away their ability to export terror, the missile program, the aggressive [2:39] Navy. But to me, that's the number one piece. When are we going to see the negotiating points [2:43] around the development of nuclear weapons? And we'll find that out, I guess, in the coming days. [2:48] No mention of that. Trump, by the way, and we shouldn't gloss over this, he started the morning [2:53] with the threat of ending Iran's civilization and ended the day without any clarity on any of the [3:02] things that Scott just pointed out, and especially the thing that, presumptively, we went into this [3:06] war to get control over, which is the nuclear program. Pretty insane jump, right, from destroying [3:13] civilization to seemingly using their 10-point Maximus plan as a baseline, right? And those are [3:20] the kind of, just to your point, I really want to understand exactly what's been agreed to behind [3:25] the scenes here. And if tolling is what's been agreed to, allowing Iran to actually charge a toll [3:32] for ships to pass through, that would be actually a step backward for our country and for global [3:38] passage of 20% of the world's oil and gas. That's a huge problem. And you add to that, [3:44] and I'd like to really understand where we are on the uranium side, and I think the nuclear piece [3:49] is very, very important. Where are we on the terror program, what's been agreed to there, and of course, [3:54] what's happened on the ballistic side, and kind of what progress have we made. And I think that's a [3:58] very important thing to understand. Well, hopefully, we'll hear from the president. [4:01] I don't think anything's been agreed to, by the way. Other than- [4:03] So then why did the goalposts move? Why did he call off his, his, he set a red line. He called [4:09] it off, and nothing has been agreed to? Well, they've agreed to negotiate. And the one thing [4:14] that he specifically mentioned was that Iran said they were going to open the strait. And this whole [4:19] negotiation, this whole ceasefire is based on their willingness to do that. But they have a baseline [4:23] for negotiations. So I guess there's going to be a two-week period here where we find out if we can have [4:28] a diplomatic solution. I think the agreement is to open it and then talk about the rest of it. [4:34] The strait was not even an issue at the start of this war. The strait was perfectly, it was open. [4:38] And now that becomes, the closing of the strait was a result of this war. And now that becomes [4:44] the key to renegotiating with the Iranians. How did that become the key issue? That was never the key [4:50] issue before the war began. We've now showed the Iranians, and they in turn have showed the rest of [4:55] the world, that they have the ability to put their hands on the neck of the global economy. [5:01] And once that has been seen, it can't be unseen. Once that, you know, [5:06] You don't think they did that before? You don't think they realized? [5:08] They had never done it in all these years. But you don't think they knew it was sitting there? [5:11] But, and it's a big difference between knowing it and demonstrating it now. Everybody in the world knows it. [5:17] Trillions of dollars of the global economy depend on it. It's not enough to say that it was always going to be this way. [5:23] It was not going to be this way on the 27th of last month. It's become this way because of this war. [5:30] And just to be clear, this two-week period in which there will be presumptively a stop to the bombing, [5:42] Iran says that their military is going to control the strait of Hormuz. [5:45] So they are still going to use, to your point, the threat of force to allow whoever they want to come through that passage. [5:53] When was the last time we discussed the Iranians using military force to patrol the strait of Hormuz? [6:00] That was not on the table, to your point, before Donald Trump decided to do this. [6:05] And, of course, reporting is coming out about all of the myriad of reasons why he shouldn't have done this [6:10] and how he was warned not to do this. [6:12] And then there were those who, this is what happens when you don't have people who are experts, [6:16] who are adults in the room making these decisions, unfortunately. [6:20] This is what happens. They didn't anticipate this part. [6:22] They went, oh, uh-oh, wait a minute. [6:23] The strait of Hormuz controls all of this, you know, rite of passage for oil, for petrochemicals. [6:30] Oh, my gosh, our farmers are now freaking out because before they were suffering from tariffs and going bankrupt. [6:35] Now it's planting season and they can't get their fertilizer. [6:39] And then, oh, my gosh, oil is going through the roof per barrel, [6:42] and the American people were paying $2.50 a gallon. [6:45] Now they're paying $4.15, sometimes $7, depending on where you live, since Donald Trump did this. [6:50] We need to ask a question. How is this making America great again? [6:55] If it was all about the nuclear program, which I agree with you, Scott, on, [6:58] that was something that was very important, we haven't heard anything about that. [7:02] If it was all about the ballistic missile program, we haven't heard anything about that in weeks. [7:06] If this has all been about the strait of Hormuz because Donald Trump has created chaos and instability [7:12] and upset our allies and almost broke up NATO over all of this, [7:16] and you can't undo the damage that he's already done. [7:19] We cannot just gloss over the fact that the president of the United States [7:22] threatened genocide against a civilization because he threw a temper tantrum this morning [7:28] because he wasn't getting his own way. [7:30] There should be consequences for that kind of flippant language. [7:34] That's not something we should just gloss over. [7:35] We'll get to that in the next vlog. [7:38] I really forget what Scott's point was, though, here. [7:40] And I agree with you. [7:41] When we're talking about messaging, you cannot possibly argue right now [7:46] it has changed from day to day to day to day. [7:49] But let's just one time in our history, in our recent history, let's look at the long game for once. [7:55] This is a country right now, one of the most evil nation states that has been on the planet. [8:00] It has been severely degraded with respect to its nuclear capability. [8:04] It has been severely degraded with respect to its missile capability. [8:07] Its army has been severely degraded. [8:10] When they talk about trying to keep the Strait of Hormuz, that we're going to keep it closed with their military, what navy? [8:16] There is no Iranian navy. [8:17] They're not keeping it closed with their navy. [8:19] That's not what they're using. [8:20] What's for once? [8:21] Look at the long game here. [8:23] We have made that region. [8:25] We've made this place a safer place. [8:27] The thing that counters your point is that the Strait of Hormuz right now, as we speak, is closed. [8:36] It is. [8:36] So if you're saying that all the things that we have done, they have no power to close the Strait, then why is it closed? [8:43] We are talking about a very temporary situation right now. [8:47] To think that this is going to continue forever, really, Abby? [8:50] I mean, honestly, we have the strongest military in the entire world. [8:53] But let's actually... [8:54] We can stake that Strait of Hormuz any time. [8:56] But let's actually contemplate what you're saying. [8:58] I agree. [8:58] It wasn't the original bias. [8:59] I agree. [9:00] But I'm trying to look at the long game here. [9:02] But, Chris, five weeks into this... [9:02] If we're looking at the long game... [9:04] Chris, hold on. [9:05] This is being argued. [9:05] It's heads I win, tails you lose. [9:07] That's how this is argued. [9:08] How about you... [9:09] Hold on a second. [9:10] Hold on a second. [9:11] I missed that memo. [9:11] Hold on a second. [9:12] How about you guys actually deal with reality? [9:14] Yes. [9:15] Five weeks into this... [9:16] That's what we're asking you to do. [9:17] No, no. [9:17] Let me just ask you a quick question. [9:20] Five weeks into this war, Iran's military has been decimated. [9:24] Nobody disagrees with that. [9:25] True. [9:25] Okay? [9:26] It's Navy decimated. [9:27] All of that. [9:28] Five weeks into this war, first question, why is the Strait of Hormuz closed? [9:33] It's closed because they're choosing to harass people going through... [9:36] Okay. [9:37] With what Navy? [9:37] I thought they... [9:38] Okay. [9:38] It's not the Navy. [9:38] It's from the land. [9:40] So, all right. [9:40] Hold on. [9:41] It's a temporary... [9:42] It's a temporary... [9:42] It's closed. [9:43] It's closed. [9:44] You agree that Iran is keeping it closed. [9:46] And apparently it's opening, pending this ceasefire. [9:48] The United States has threatened to use force to reopen it. [9:51] We have not. [9:52] Why have we not done it? [9:53] Well, the president asked international coalition to come in and deal with this. [9:57] And 40 countries met about it last week in the direction of Great Britain. [9:59] He's also said we don't need them. [10:01] He said we could do it ourselves. [10:02] Why haven't we done it? [10:03] He also asked an international coalition to show up and deal with this. [10:06] You're not answering my question. [10:07] Why haven't we done it? [10:09] Because he wants other countries to take some responsibility for it. [10:12] Literally, literally 48 hours. [10:13] So, he didn't care about the streets. [10:15] Long-term, short-term, however you look at it, Iran has successfully, from a point of [10:23] profound weakness, been able to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. [10:27] And the reason that we are in this moment, where the president is negotiating on their [10:33] 10-point plan, is because it is so important to him that that Strait be reopened. [10:38] And to Bobby's point, they have demonstrated to the world that they have economic leverage [10:44] over the rest of the world. [10:46] And so, what does the United States do about that? [10:49] That's the question that we are facing right now. [10:51] Thank you.